209 (USD 422 2 billion), underscored by the second highest annual average GDP growth rate of 6 9% (Figure 6 34a) Figure 6 34 a GDP Growth, GDP Growth Rate 1985 – 2030 (Various Scenarios) Source Estima[.]
209 (USD 422.2 billion), underscored by the second-highest annual average GDP growth rate of 6.9% (Figure 6-34a) Figure 6-34-a: GDP Growth, GDP Growth Rate: 1985 – 2030 (Various Scenarios) Source: Estimates based on modelling developed in this research (2014-2030), World Bank (2017) for 1995-2014 In the SC1 BAU scenario, annual GDP growth is forecasted, unexpectedly, to decline, on average, by 0.2%, from 5.5% in 2014 to 5.3% in 2030, reaching USD 330.15 billion in the next 16 years The major reason for this marginal increase in economic output and decline in GDP growth rate is the continuation of the historical socio-economic development policy where natural resources remain as the centric and driving forces of economic expansion This policy approach is typified by the absence of significant improvement in economic policy development and technological changes to confront the emerging technological revolution; thorough consideration of resource management in the policies is especially key in terms of energy, water, and food resources that are essential inputs for socio-economic development, as well as for balancing short-term economic gains and long-term losses and damages in the environment and eco-system For example, the major contributor to the decrease of economic output decrease in the SC1 BAU scenario, Figure 6-34b, is industry (40%) with a dominance in heavy manufacturing areas such as power, steel, and cement; in terms of total trade balance, crude oil, core, and charcoal exports are key These are natural resources are owned mainly by the public sector Meanwhile, agriculture contributes 34% to the total GDP, despite being the largest consumer of water (more than 90%), occupier of land (35%),