146 The improvement of energy efficiency and new energy sources will drive economic growth and the shift to advanced technology on the supply side As a result, the monopoly in the electricity trade wi[.]
146 The improvement of energy efficiency and new energy sources will drive economic growth and the shift to advanced technology on the supply side As a result, the monopoly in the electricity trade will be eliminated This may be considered a revolution and is expected to create new opportunities for medium and large enterprises to join the electricity market The electricity generation and the energy sector have a high forward linkage effects and relatively low backward linkage effects This implies that the energy sector has a significant influence on other industries (being an input source), but it has a low capacity of attracting other industries’ output This scenario assumes that the emergence of private sector entities will have a significant impact on the supply side It is estimated that the impact of electricity on other sectors is 10% of total production Solar development will substitute coal and gas in domestic use due to the enormous potential of this type of energy in tropical countries like Vietnam Hydro-electricity may be complemented by solar electricity when a shortage of water is caused by high temperatures, in the dry season Solar electricity is projected to generate at least 10% of the total production of the energy sector by 2030 However, the lack of policies promoting clean technologies will make new coal technologies such as the “Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle” (IGCC) (World Bank, 2016b) less competitive than conventional techniques In addition, the ban on nuclear power in the energy mix generation will exacerbate the limitations of energy resources Food production will benefit from increased water productivity and energy revolution as a backward industrial linkage Following the mechanisation process, in 2030, the improvement of energy efficiency will promote the transition to more advanced machines As a result, more output will be produced in the agriculture sector, while watersaving is expected to save a significant amount of money, which can be reinvested to improve both the agricultural production and the irrigation system Agricultural production is projected to increase by 15%, 20% and 18.6% in paddy, sugar, and coffee, respectively, while other crop production will rise about 20% The agricultural process will also benefit from the enhancement of energy production The increase in the agricultural output is estimated at 9% per year in this scenario In this context, the quality of agricultural products is also expected to improve, and Vietnam will export agricultural products instead of raw commodities as in the business-as-usual scenario