Swing trading for DUMmIES

by Omar Bassal, CFA Swing Trading FOR DUMmIES ‰ 01_293683-ffirs.indd iii01_293683-ffirs.indd iii 7/28/08 6:38:29 PM7/28/08 6:38:29 PM Swing Trading For Dummies ® Published by Wiley Publishing, Inc. 111 River St. Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774 www.wiley.com Copyright © 2008 by Wiley Publishing, Inc., Indianapolis, Indiana Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning, or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without either the prior written permission of the Publisher, or authorization through payment of the appropriate per-copy fee to the Copyright Clearance Center, 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, 978-750-8400, fax 978-646-8600. Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Legal Department, Wiley Publishing, Inc., 10475 Crosspoint Blvd., Indianapolis, IN 46256, 317-572-3447, fax 317-572-4355, or online at http:// www.wiley.com/go/permissions. Trademarks: Wiley, the Wiley Publishing logo, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, A Reference for the Rest of Us!, The Dummies Way, Dummies Daily, The Fun and Easy Way, Dummies.com and related trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc. and/or its affiliates in the United States and other countries, and may not be used without written permission. All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners. Wiley Publishing, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book. LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: THE PUBLISHER AND THE AUTHOR MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS WORK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES, INCLUDING WITH- OUT LIMITATION WARRANTIES OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE. NO WARRANTY MAY BE CREATED OR EXTENDED BY SALES OR PROMOTIONAL MATERIALS. THE ADVICE AND STRATEGIES CONTAINED HEREIN MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR EVERY SITUATION. THIS WORK IS SOLD WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT THE PUBLISHER IS NOT ENGAGED IN RENDERING LEGAL, ACCOUNTING, OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES. IF PROFESSIONAL ASSISTANCE IS REQUIRED, THE SERVICES OF A COMPETENT PROFESSIONAL PERSON SHOULD BE SOUGHT. NEITHER THE PUBLISHER NOR THE AUTHOR SHALL BE LIABLE FOR DAMAGES ARISING HEREFROM. THE FACT THAT AN ORGANIZA- TION OR WEBSITE IS REFERRED TO IN THIS WORK AS A CITATION AND/OR A POTENTIAL SOURCE OF FURTHER INFORMATION DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE AUTHOR OR THE PUBLISHER ENDORSES THE INFORMATION THE ORGANIZATION OR WEBSITE MAY PROVIDE OR RECOMMENDATIONS IT MAY MAKE. FURTHER, READERS SHOULD BE AWARE THAT INTERNET WEBSITES LISTED IN THIS WORK MAY HAVE CHANGED OR DISAPPEARED BETWEEN WHEN THIS WORK WAS WRITTEN AND WHEN IT IS READ. For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within the U.S. at 800-762-2974, outside the U.S. at 317-572-3993, or fax 317-572-4002. For technical support, please visit www.wiley.com/techsupport. Wiley also publishes its books in a variety of electronic formats. Some content that appears in print may not be available in electronic books. Library of Congress Control Number: 2008933744 ISBN: 978-0-470-29368-3 Manufactured in the United States of America 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 01_293683-ffirs.indd iv01_293683-ffirs.indd iv 7/28/08 6:38:29 PM7/28/08 6:38:29 PM About the Author Omar Bassal, CFA is the head of Asset Management at NBK Capital, the investment arm of the largest and highest rated bank in the Middle East. There, he oversees all asset management activities for institutional and high net worth individuals investing in the equity markets of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Prior to joining NBK Capital, Mr. Bassal was a portfolio manager at Azzad Asset Management, where he managed mutual funds and separately managed accounts. Mr. Bassal also worked as an analyst at Profit Investment Management and launched a socially responsible hedge fund in 2002. He holds an MBA with honors in finance, management, and sta- tistics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. Additionally, he graduated summa cum laude with a Bachelor’s of Science degree in Economics, also from the Wharton School. He has appeared on CNBC and has contributed articles to Barron’s and Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities. 01_293683-ffirs.indd v01_293683-ffirs.indd v 7/28/08 6:38:29 PM7/28/08 6:38:29 PM Dedication To my mother, my mother, and my mother — Maha Al-Hiraki Bassal. To my father, Dr. Aly Bassal. And my sisters, Suzie and Sarah. To my loving wife, Salma, and my brother-in-law, Hisham. And to my beloved nephew, Mostafa. They have always supported me in easy and difficult times. Author’s Acknowledgments I don’t believe any experience could possibly have prepared me for the rigor- ous schedule required to write a book. I can’t tell you how many weekends, evenings, and holidays were required to write Swing Trading For Dummies. The effort was, of course, worth it. But I did miss several episodes of Lost, The Office, and other shows. Alas, the cost of writing books isn’t measured in time alone. Before I turn this section into an autobiography (which I should pitch to Wiley as my second book, come to think of it: Omar Bassal For Dummies!), let me thank those who deserve thanks (give credit where credit is due, I’m told, is the way the kids are putting it these days). I first learned of this opportu- nity through Susan Weiner, CFA — a skilled and professional investment writer. Susan told me about a search Wiley was conducting to find an author for this book. Marilyn Allen, my agent, pitched me to Wiley. I’m honored Wiley offered me the opportunity to write this book. Thank you, Stacy Kennedy, for your confidence in me and your buy-in. Writing the book, as you may have gleaned from my previous comments, was a grueling, tough process, and Kristin DeMint was an invaluable resource. She was my project editor and made sure the book progressed. She often joked that she knew nothing about swing trading. But her “weakness” was in reality a strength. Not being an expert in the subject meant Kristin could offer help- ful comments on what might confuse a novice when I made assumptions or didn’t properly explain ideas. Kristin also kept a watchful eye when deadlines approached. Oh how I didn’t want to draw her ire. (I’m half joking. She’s actually a very sweet person . . . as long as I didn’t miss my deadline!) As my trading mentor, Ian Woodward, once said: Many hands make light work. In addition to Kristin, many Wiley staff members worked behind the scenes. Russell Rhoads, the technical editor, ensured I wasn’t making things up, and other editors — Todd Lothery, Jennifer Tucci, and Elizabeth Rea — made sure my grammar made cents. (They must’ve missed this part!) Though not involved directly in my project, per se, my family supported me throughout. That meant a lot. It’s not something I can put into words — even as a writer. 01_293683-ffirs.indd vii01_293683-ffirs.indd vii 7/28/08 6:38:29 PM7/28/08 6:38:29 PM Publisher’s Acknowledgments We’re proud of this book; please send us your comments through our Dummies online registration form located at www.dummies.com/register/. Some of the people who helped bring this book to market include the following: Acquisitions, Editorial, and Media Development Project Editor: Kristin DeMint Acquisitions Editor: Stacy Kennedy Senior Copy Editor: Elizabeth Rea Copy Editors: Todd Lothery, Jennifer Tucci Assistant Editor: Erin Calligan Mooney Technical Editor: Russell Rhoads Editorial Manager: Michelle Hacker Editorial Assistants: Joe Niesen, Jennette ElNaggar Cover Photo: © ACE STOCK LIMITED/ Alamy Cartoons: Rich Tennant ( www.the5thwave.com) Composition Services Project Coordinator: Erin Smith Layout and Graphics: Stacie Brooks, Reuben W. Davis, Nikki Gately, Melissa K. Jester, Christine Williams Proofreaders: Laura Albert, Context Editorial Services Indexer: Potomac Indexing, LLC Publishing and Editorial for Consumer Dummies Diane Graves Steele, Vice President and Publisher, Consumer Dummies Joyce Pepple, Acquisitions Director, Consumer Dummies Kristin Fergusan-Wagstaffe, Product Development Director, Consumer Dummies Ensley Eikenburg, Associate Publisher, Travel Kelly Regan, Editorial Director, Travel Publishing for Technology Dummies Andy Cummings, Vice President and Publisher, Dummies Technology/General User Composition Services Gerry Fahey, Vice President of Production Services Debbie Stailey, Director of Composition Services 01_293683-ffirs.indd viii01_293683-ffirs.indd viii 7/28/08 6:38:29 PM7/28/08 6:38:29 PM Contents at a Glance Introduction 1 Part I: Getting into the Swing of Things 7 Chapter 1: Swing Trading from A to Z 9 Chapter 2: Understanding the Swing Trader’s Two Main Strategies 25 Chapter 3: Getting Started with Administrative Tasks 41 Part II: Determining Your Entry and Exit Points: Technical Analysis 57 Chapter 4: Charting the Market 59 Chapter 5: Asking Technical Indicators for Directions 89 Chapter 6: Analyzing Charts to Trade Trends, Ranges, or Both 117 Part III: Digging Deeper into the Market: Fundamental Analysis 141 Chapter 7: Understanding a Company, Inside and Out 143 Chapter 8: Finding Companies Based on Their Fundamentals 163 Chapter 9: Six Tried-and-True Steps for Analyzing a Company’s Stock 181 Part IV: Developing and Implementing Your Trading Plan 201 Chapter 10: Strengthening Your Defense: Managing Risk 203 Chapter 11: Fine-Tuning Your Entries and Exits 231 Chapter 12: Walking through a Trade, Swing-Style 247 Chapter 13: Evaluating Your Performance 263 Part V: The Part of Tens 277 Chapter 14: Ten Simple Rules for Swing Trading 279 Chapter 15: Ten Deadly Sins of Swing Trading 289 Appendix: Resources 299 Index 309 02_293683-ftoc.indd ix02_293683-ftoc.indd ix 7/28/08 6:39:22 PM7/28/08 6:39:22 PM Table of Contents Introduction 1 About This Book 2 Conventions Used in This Book 3 Foolish Assumptions 3 How This Book Is Organized 4 Part I: Getting into the Swing of Things 4 Part II: Determining Your Entry and Exit Points: Technical Analysis 4 Part III: Digging Deeper into the Market: Fundamental Analysis 4 Part IV: Developing and Implementing Your Trading Plan 5 Part V: The Part of Tens 5 Icons Used in This Book 5 Where to Go from Here 6 Part I: Getting into the Swing of Things 7 Chapter 1: Swing Trading from A to Z. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9 What Is Swing Trading? 10 The differences between swing trading and buy-and-hold investing 11 The differences between swing trading and day trading 12 What Swing Trading Is to You: Determining Your Time Commitment 13 Swing trading as your primary source of income 13 Swing trading to supplement income or improve investment returns 14 Swing trading just for fun 15 Sneaking a Peek at the Swing Trader’s Strategic Plan 15 The “what”: Determining which securities you’ll trade 16 The “where”: Deciding where you’ll trade 18 The “when” and the “how”: Choosing your trading style and strategy 19 Building Your Swing Trading Prowess 24 Chapter 2: Understanding the Swing Trader’s Two Main Strategies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25 Strategy and Style: The Swing Trader’s Bio 25 Two forms of analysis, head to head 26 Scope approach: Top down or bottom up? 27 Styles of trading: Discretionary versus mechanical 28 02_293683-ftoc.indd xi02_293683-ftoc.indd xi 7/28/08 6:39:22 PM7/28/08 6:39:22 PM Swing Trading For Dummies xii Wrapping Your Mind around Technical Theory 29 Understanding how and why technical analysis works 29 Sizing up the technical advantages and disadvantages 31 The two main aspects of technical analysis 33 Appreciating the Value of the Big Picture: Fundamental Theory 34 Understanding how and why fundamental analysis works 35 Surveying the fundamental advantages and disadvantages 36 Looking at catalysts and the great growth/value divide 38 Chapter 3: Getting Started with Administrative Tasks . . . . . . . . . . . . .41 Hooking Up with a Broker 42 Choosing a broker 42 Opening an account 45 Selecting Service Providers 46 Providers to do business with 46 Providers to avoid 50 Starting a Trading Journal 52 Creating a Winning Mindset 56 Part II: Determining Your Entry and Exit Points: Technical Analysis 57 Chapter 4: Charting the Market . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .59 Nailing Down the Concepts: The Roles of Price and Volume in Charting 60 Having Fun with Pictures: The Four Main Chart Types 61 Charts in Action: A Pictorial View of the Security Cycle of Life 64 The waiting game: Accumulation 64 The big bang: Expansion 66 The aftermath: Distribution 67 The downfall: Contraction 69 Assessing Trading-Crowd Psychology: Popular Patterns for All Chart Types 70 The Darvas box: Accumulation in action 71 Head and shoulders: The top-off 73 The cup and handle: Your signal to stick around for coffee 74 Triangles: A fiscal tug of war 76 Gaps: Your swing trading crystal ball 77 Letting Special Candlestick Patterns Reveal Trend Changes 80 Hammer time! 80 The hanging man (Morbid, I know) 82 Double vision: Bullish and bearish engulfing patterns 82 The triple threat: Morning and evening stars 83 02_293683-ftoc.indd xii02_293683-ftoc.indd xii 7/28/08 6:39:23 PM7/28/08 6:39:23 PM xiii Table of Contents Measuring the Strength of Trends with Trendlines 85 Uptrend lines: Support for the stubborn bulls 86 Downtrend lines: Falling resistance 87 Horizontal lines: Working to both support and resist 88 Chapter 5: Asking Technical Indicators for Directions. . . . . . . . . . . . .89 All You Need to Know about Analyzing Indicators Before You Start 90 You must apply the right type of indicator 90 Not all price swings are meaningful 90 Prices don’t reflect volume, so you need to account for it 92 An indicator’s accuracy isn’t a measure of its value 92 Two to three indicators are enough 93 Inputs should always fit your time horizon 94 Divergences are the strongest signals in technical analysis 95 Determining Whether a Security Is Trending 95 Recognizing Major Trending Indicators 97 The compass of indicators: Directional Movement Index (DMI) 98 A mean, lean revelation machine: Moving averages 100 A meeting of the means: MACD 105 Spotting Major Non-Trending Indicators 107 Stochastics: A study of change over time 108 Relative Strength Index (RSI): A comparison of apples and oranges 111 Combining Technical Indicators with Chart Patterns 114 Using Technical Indicators to Determine Net Long or Net Short Positioning 115 Chapter 6: Analyzing Charts to Trade Trends, Ranges, or Both. . . . .117 Trading Trends versus Trading Ranges: A Quick Rundown 118 Trading on Trends 120 Finding a strong trend 120 Knowing when to enter a trend 122 Managing your risk by setting your exit level 124 Trading Ranges: Perhaps Stasis Is Bliss? 125 Finding a security in a strong trading range 125 Entering on a range and setting your exit level 127 Comparing Markets to One Another: Intermarket Analysis 128 Passing the buck: The U.S. dollar 128 Tracking commodities 130 Watching how bond price and stock price movements correlate 133 Putting Securities in a Market Head-to-Head: Relative Strength Analysis 134 Treating the world as your oyster: The global scope 135 Holding industry groups to the market standard 137 02_293683-ftoc.indd xiii02_293683-ftoc.indd xiii 7/28/08 6:39:23 PM7/28/08 6:39:23 PM Swing Trading For Dummies xiv Part III: Digging Deeper into the Market: Fundamental Analysis 141 Chapter 7: Understanding a Company, Inside and Out . . . . . . . . . . . .143 Getting Your Hands on a Company’s Financial Statements 144 What to look for 144 When to look 145 Where to look 146 Assessing a Company’s Financial Statements 146 Balance sheet 147 Income statement 151 Cash flow statement 153 Not Just Numbers: Qualitative Data 156 Valuing a Company Based on Data You’ve Gathered 158 Understanding the two main methods of valuation 158 Implementing the swing trader’s preferred model 159 Chapter 8: Finding Companies Based on Their Fundamentals . . . . .163 Seeing the Forest for the Trees: The Top-Down Approach 163 Sizing up the market 164 Assessing industry potential 170 Starting from the Grassroots Level: The Bottom-Up Approach 172 Using screens to filter information 173 Assessing your screening results 179 Deciding Which Approach to Use 179 Chapter 9: Six Tried-and-True Steps for Analyzing a Company’s Stock . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .181 The Six Step Dance: Analyzing a Company 181 Taking a Company’s Industry into Account 183 Scoping out markets you’re familiar with 184 Identifying what type of sector a company is in 184 Determining a Company’s Financial Stability 187 Current ratio 188 Debt to shareholders’ equity ratio 188 Interest coverage ratio 189 Looking Back at Historical Earnings and Sales Growth 190 Understanding Earnings and Sales Expectations 192 Checking Out the Competition 194 Valuing a Company’s Shares 197 Gauging shares’ relative cheapness or expensiveness 197 Figuring out whether the comparative share-price difference is justified 198 02_293683-ftoc.indd xiv02_293683-ftoc.indd xiv 7/28/08 6:39:23 PM7/28/08 6:39:23 PM [...]... They’re nimble and judicious in choosing potential opportunities 2 Swing Trading For Dummies About This Book In Swing Trading For Dummies, I introduce you to the strategies and techniques of the swing trader Moreover, I cover topics given short shrift in some trading textbooks — topics that largely determine your swing trading success For example, whereas many textbooks focus on chart patterns and technical... worse) This book is a guide for those of you interested in swing trading To understand swing trading, you should understand what it is and what it isn’t 10 Part I: Getting into the Swing of Things What Is Swing Trading? Swing trading is the art and science of profiting from securities’ short-term price movements spanning a few days to a few weeks — one or two months, max Swing traders can be individuals... 1: Swing Trading from A to Z If you fit these criteria, then part-time swing trading may be for you When you first start out, I recommend swing trading with just a small portion of your portfolio so any early mistakes don’t prove too costly Although paper trading can be beneficial, it can’t compare to the emotions you’ll be battling as a swing trader when you put your own money on the line Swing trading. .. embarking on your swing trading journey, then this is the part for you In the next few chapters, I help you figure out how much time you’re willing to devote to swing trading and clue you in to the lingo you need to know I also introduce you to the rules of the swing trading game, the steps you can take to get ready to play, and some recommended strategies for growing your portfolio into a swing trading success... strategies for growing your portfolio into a swing trading success story Chapter 1 Swing Trading from A to Z In This Chapter ᮣ Contrasting swing trading with other types of trading ᮣ Deciding how much time you want to devote to swing trading ᮣ Getting strategic by preparing your trading plan ᮣ Avoiding the mistakes that many swing traders make Y ou can earn a living in this world in many different ways... if you already know the basics of swing trading For that reason, I explain the five parts as follows so you can determine which part or parts you need to focus on Part I: Getting into the Swing of Things Swing trading can be a rewarding endeavor for those who have the time and interest in trading securities over the short term But you need to pack your backpack before you set out on the journey Part... annually over 20 or 30 years Swing trading to supplement income or improve investment returns This category likely applies to the lion’s share of swing traders Swing trading with an eye on earning additional income or improving the returns on your portfolio is less stressful than swing trading for a living You still have something to fall back on if you make a mistake, and you can swing trade while holding... character Matt Damon plays in Good Will Hunting ߜ Appreciate humor and popular movie references 3 4 Swing Trading For Dummies If you want to trade other types of securities — like currencies or commodities — you may want to pick up Currency Trading For Dummies by Mark Galant and Brian Dolan, or Commodities For Dummies by Amine Bouchentouf (both published by Wiley) How This Book Is Organized This book has... stocks or exchange traded funds For example, swing traders wanting to profit from movements in gold prices can trade streetTRACKS Gold shares, which tracks the movement of gold bullion prices But trading commodities involves risks and issues that differ from trading equities (See Commodities For Dummies by Amine Bouchentouf, published by Wiley, for more information on trading commodities.) ߜ The currency... making your life easier as a swing trader If Swing Trading For Dummies were a second grade classroom, this icon would signal my jumping to the end of the fairy tale Goldilocks and the Three Bears and telling you how it ends The Tip icon cuts through the fluff and tells you exactly what you need to know Where to Go from Here Like all For Dummies books, this book is modular in format That means you can . . . . . .9 What Is Swing Trading? 10 The differences between swing trading and buy-and-hold investing 11 The differences between swing trading and day trading 12 What Swing Trading Is to You:. 6:40:39 PM7/28/08 6:40:39 PM 2 Swing Trading For Dummies About This Book In Swing Trading For Dummies, I introduce you to the strategies and tech- niques of the swing trader. Moreover, I cover. Commitment 13 Swing trading as your primary source of income 13 Swing trading to supplement income or improve investment returns 14 Swing trading just for fun 15 Sneaking a Peek at the Swing Trader’s