phương pháp đầu tư tài chính hay Giao dịch Swing, Không một phần nào của ấn phẩm này có thể được sao chép, lưu trữ trong một hệ thống truy xuất hoặc truyền tải dưới bất kỳ hình thức nào hoặc bằng bất kỳ phương tiện nào, điện tử, cơ khí, photocopy, ghi âm, quét hoặc bằng cách khác, trừ khi được cho phép theo Mục 107 hoặc 108 của Bản quyền Hoa Kỳ năm 1976 Hành động mà không có sự cho phép trước bằng văn bản của Nhà xuất bản. Yêu cầu cho phép Nhà xuất bản phải được gửi tới Phòng Cấp phép, John Wiley Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 7486011, fax (201) 7486008 hoặc trực tuyến tạihttp:www.wiley.comgopermissions.
Swing Trading Swing Trading 2nd Edition by Omar Bassal, CFA Founder and Managing Director of Shukr Investments Swing Trading For Dummies®, 2nd Edition Published by: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030-5774, www.wiley.com Copyright © 2019 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey Published simultaneously in Canada No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, scanning or otherwise, except as permitted under Sections 107 or 108 of the 1976 United States Copyright Act, without the prior written permission of the Publisher Requests to the Publisher for permission should be addressed to the Permissions Department, John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 111 River Street, Hoboken, NJ 07030, (201) 748-6011, fax (201) 748-6008, or online at http://www.wiley.com/go/permissions Trademarks: Wiley, For Dummies, the Dummies Man logo, Dummies.com, Making Everything Easier, and related trade dress are trademarks or registered trademarks of John Wiley & Sons, Inc., and may not be used without written permission All other trademarks are the property of their respective owners John Wiley & Sons, Inc., is not associated with any product or vendor mentioned in this book LIMIT OF LIABILITY/DISCLAIMER OF WARRANTY: WHILE THE PUBLISHER AND AUTHOR HAVE USED THEIR BEST EFFORTS IN PREPARING THIS BOOK, THEY MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES WITH RESPECT TO THE ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OF THE CONTENTS OF THIS BOOK AND SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIM ANY IMPLIED WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE NO WARRANTY MAY BE CREATED OR EXTENDED BY SALES REPRESENTATIVES OR WRITTEN SALES MATERIALS THE ADVISE AND STRATEGIES CONTAINED HEREIN MAY NOT BE SUITABLE FOR YOUR SITUATION YOU SHOULD CONSULT WITH A PROFESSIONAL WHERE APPROPRIATE NEITHER THE PUBLISHER NOR THE AUTHOR SHALL BE LIABLE FOR DAMAGES ARISING HEREFROM For general information on our other products and services, please contact our Customer Care Department within the U.S at 877-762-2974, outside the U.S at 317-572-3993, or fax 317-572-4002 For technical support, please visit https://hub.wiley.com/community/support/dummies Wiley publishes in a variety of print and electronic formats and by print-on-demand Some material included with standard print versions of this book may not be included in e-books or in print-on-demand If this book refers to media such as a CD or DVD that is not included in the version you purchased, you may download this material at http://booksupport.wiley.com For more information about Wiley products, visit www.wiley.com Library of Congress Control Number: 2019934854 ISBN 978-1-119-56508-6 (pbk); ISBN 978-1-119-56510-9 (ebk); 978-1-119-56511-6 (ebk) Manufactured in the United States of America 10 Contents at a Glance Introduction Part 1: Getting into the Swing of Things CHAPTER 1: Swing Trading from A to Z CHAPTER 2: Understanding the Swing Trader’s Two Main Strategies 25 CHAPTER 3: Focusing on the Small Stuff: The Administrative Tasks 45 Part 2: Timing Is Everything: Technical Analysis 61 CHAPTER 4: Charting the Market 63 Asking Technical Indicators for Directions 93 CHAPTER 6: Trend Following or Trading Ranges 121 CHAPTER 5: Part 3: Running the Numbers: Fundamental Analysis 145 CHAPTER 7: Understanding a Company, Inside and Out 147 Finding Companies Based on Their Fundamentals 169 CHAPTER 9: Assessing a Company’s Stock: Six Tried-and-True Steps 189 CHAPTER 8: Part 4: Planning the Trade and Trading the Plan CHAPTER 10: Fail 211 Fast: Managing Risk Your Entry and Exit Strategies CHAPTER 12: Walking through a Trade, Swing-Style CHAPTER 13: Looking at the Scoreboard to Evaluate Your Performance 213 241 259 277 Part 5: The Part of Tens 293 CHAPTER 11: Knowing CHAPTER 14: Ten Simple Rules for Swing Trading 295 CHAPTER 15: Ten (Plus One) Deadly Mistakes of Swing Trading 305 Appendix: Helpful Resources for Today’s Swing Trader 315 Index 327 Table of Contents INTRODUCTION About This Book Foolish Assumptions Icons Used in This Book Where to Go from Here 3 PART 1: GETTING INTO THE SWING OF THINGS CHAPTER 1: Swing Trading from A to Z Understanding What Swing Trading Is (and Isn’t) The differences between swing trading and buy-and-hold investing The differences between swing trading and day trading 11 What Swing Trading Is to You: Determining Your Time Commitment 12 Swing trading as your primary source of income 12 Swing trading to supplement income or improve investment returns 13 Swing trading just for fun 14 Sneaking a Peek at the Swing Trader’s Strategic Plan 14 The “what”: Determining which securities you’ll trade 15 More “what”: Trading stocks consistent with your values 17 The “where”: Deciding where you’ll trade 18 The “when” and the “how”: Choosing your trading style and strategy 19 Building Your Swing Trading Prowess 24 CHAPTER 2: Understanding the Swing Trader’s Two Main Strategies 25 Strategy and Style: The Swing Trader’s Bio Two forms of analysis, head to head Scope approach: Top down or bottom up? Styles of trading: Discretionary versus Quantitative Wrapping Your Mind around Technical Theory Understanding how and why technical analysis works Sizing up the technical advantages and disadvantages The two main approaches of technical analysis Appreciating the Value of the Big Picture: Fundamental Theory Understanding how and why fundamental analysis works Surveying the fundamental advantages and disadvantages Looking at catalysts and the great growth/value divide Table of Contents 26 26 29 29 30 31 33 34 37 37 39 40 vii CHAPTER 3: Focusing on the Small Stuff: The Administrative Tasks 45 Hooking Up with a Broker 46 Choosing a broker 46 Opening an account 49 Selecting Service Providers 50 Providers to business with 51 Providers to avoid 55 Starting a Trading Journal .57 Creating a Winning Mindset 59 PART 2: TIMING IS EVERYTHING: TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 61 CHAPTER 4: Charting the Market 63 Nailing Down the Concepts: The Roles of Price and Volume in Charting 64 Having Fun with Pictures: The Four Main Chart Types 65 Charts in Action: A Pictorial View of the Security Cycle of Life 68 The waiting game: Accumulation 68 The big bang: Expansion .70 The aftermath: Distribution 71 The downfall: Contraction 73 Assessing Trading-Crowd Psychology: Popular Patterns for All Chart Types 74 The Darvas box: Accumulation in action 75 Head and shoulders: The top-off 76 The cup and handle: Your signal to stick around for coffee 78 Triangles: A fiscal tug of war 80 Gaps: Your swing trading crystal ball 81 Letting Special Candlestick Patterns Reveal Trend Changes 84 Hammer time! 85 The hanging man 86 Double vision: Bullish and bearish engulfing patterns 86 The triple threat: Morning and evening stars 88 Measuring the Strength of Trends with Trendlines 89 Uptrend lines: Support for the stubborn bulls 90 Downtrend lines: Falling resistance 91 Horizontal lines: Typical support and resistance 92 viii Swing Trading For Dummies SLV (iShares Silver Trust), 231 buy-and-hold investing, compared with, 8–11 SNDK (Sandisk), 72–73, 74, 91 capital requirements for, 306–307 SNE (Sony Corp.), 266–267, 269, 272, 273–274 day trading, compared with, 11 SNY (Sanofi), 166 defined, SPXC (SPX Corporation), 95 earning prospect from, SWN (Southwestern Energy), 256 full-time, 12–13 TOL (Toll Brothers), 199 for fun, 14 ULTA (Ulta Beauty Inc.), 114–115 goal of, VEGI (fertilizers and agricultural chemicals), 231 to improve investment returns, 13–14 VG (Vonage), 201 overview, WDC (Western Digital), 85, 108–109 part-time, 13–14, 248–249 WOOD (timber), 231 personality fit for, WTI (W&T Offshore), 235–236 as primary source of income, 12–13 XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR), 231 to supplement income, 13–14 XOM (Exxon Mobil), 234 ten simple rules for, 295–303 XRT (S&P Retail ETF Index), 143 YHOO (Yahoo!), 238 time commitment, 11–14 SWN (Southwestern Energy), 256 stop limit orders, 245 symmetrical triangles, 81 stop-loss level systematic trading style, 26 mental, 236, 271 overview, 236–237 setting, 269 stop-loss orders good until canceled, 271 physical, 236 rules, 301–302 using, 301–302 stop orders, 244–245 strategic plan deciding where to trade, 18 overview, 14–15 securities to trade, 15–17 trading stocks consistent with your values, 17–18 trading style and strategy, 18–23 support levels during accumulation phase, 69 defined, 21, 32 horizontal trendlines, 92 identifying, 35 stop loss based on, 237 trading ranges, 121 swing trading actions items, 24 advantages of, 10–11 T Taleb, Nassim Nicholas, 214, 323–324 TD Ameritrade, 47, 48 technical analysis advantages of, 19–20, 27–28, 33–34 defined, 25 disadvantages of, 33–34 fundamental analysis, compared with, 26–28 how and why it works, 30–31 questions to ask in, 31 reading charts, 34–35 technical indicators, 35 validity of, 35 Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities magazine, 319, 324–325 technical exit, 300–301 technical indicators See also trending indicators accuracy value of, 97–98 applying, 36, 93 defined, 36 determining whether to be in or out of the market, 119–120 divergences, 99 emergency exit signal, 129 Index 341 technical indicators (continued) full-time limiting number of, 98 intraday charting, 250–253 non-trending indicators, 112–118 Nasdaq Level II quotes, 253–258 overview, 93 price and volume, 96 order types, 249–250 order types price swings related to, 94–96 algorithmic orders, 247 selling strategies using, 234–235 buy-stop orders, 245 settings, 98–99 limit orders, 244 stop loss based on, 238–239 overview, 243 trending indicators, 100–112 stop limit orders, 245 technical software providers, 51–52 telecommunications sector, 193 stop orders, 244–245 part-time Theory of Investment Value, The (Williams), 147 entry strategy, 248 thinkorswim.com (Web site), 48 exit strategy, 249 Think Tank, 324 overview, 249 ticker tape, 27 trade record, 271–272 tiddlers, 217 traders.com (Web site), 325 timber (symbol: WOOD), 231 TradeStation, 48, 51, 174, 271, 319 time commitment, determining, 11–14 tradestation.com (Web site), 48, 319 time frames, 9–10 trading journal, 2, 57–59, 302–303 time-weighted return method trading plan calculating return for time periods, 285 overview, chain-linking, 286–287 performance evaluation, 291–292 defined, 282 rules, 295–297 money-weighted return method, compared with, 283–284 overview, 281–282 time period breakdown, 282–284 TOL (Toll Brothers), 199 Toll Brothers (symbol: TOL), 199 top-down approach bottom-up approach, compared with, 187 industry assessment, 178–180 market evaluation adjusted Fed Model, 176–177 Fed Model, 174–175 long-term P/E ratio, 172–174 overview, 171–172 overview, 21, 29, 169–171 steps of, 171 for trending securities, 125–126 total return, 288, 290 trade execution 342 Swing Trading For Dummies violating, 305–306 trading process determining position size limiting losses, 269–270 overview, 268–269 setting stop-loss level, 269 executing order, 270–271 identifying top industry groups, 262–263 improving skills, 274–275 market research daily chart, 260–261 overview, 260 weekly chart, 261–262 monitoring motion of shares, 272–273 recording trade, 271–272 selecting candidates assessing charts, 264–267 occupational activities, 263–264 overview, 263–264 ranking filtered securities, 264–267 screening securities, 264 volatility, 259 trading ranges trends bearish engulfing pattern, 87–88 bullish engulfing pattern, 86–87 defined, 121 conception of, 123 evening stars, 88–89 entering/exiting, 131–132 hammers, 85–86 finding security in wide, 130 hanging man, 86 flat, 130 morning stars, 88–89 overview, 129–130 strength of, 130 trading, 122–124 triangle chart patterns trading, 122–124 ascending, 80 trading trends, compared with, 122–124 descending, 81 trading style and strategy analysis techniques, 19–20 overview, 80 symmetrical, 81 being in or out of the market, 22 true worth, choosing, 18–23 turnover, 156 choosing candidates to buy, 20–21 turnover rate, entering orders, 19 Twitter, 24, 55–57, 161–162 exit strategy, 21–22 risk management plan, 22–23 trading trends entering, 126–128 finding strong, 124–126 risk management, 129 trading ranges, compared with, 122–124 traditional brokerage accounts, 50 trailing stop loss, 91 trailing twelve months (TTM), 166 trending indicators See also technical i ndicators Directional Movement Index (DMI), 102–104 U ULTA (Ulta Beauty Inc.), 114–115 Ulta Beauty Inc (symbol: ULTA), 114–115 unearned revenue, 155 uptrend lines, 90–91 usability, 48 U.S dollar, 133–134, 268 use limit orders, 300–301 use stop-loss orders, 301–302 U.S. Treasury bond, 136–137 U.S. Treasury Note, 175 utilities sector, 193 limits of, 100 Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD), 109–111 moving averages, 104–109 overview, 36, 100 trendlines V valuation absolute, 165 defined, 148 defined, 88 preferred model, 165–168 downtrend lines, 91–92 relative, 164–165 drawing, 90 value horizontal, 92 fair, 177 overview, 89–90 intrinsic, 8, 37 uptrend lines, 90–91 market, 37 Index 343 value sector, 193 MagicFormulaInvesting.com, 316 value stocks, 42–43, 185–186 metastock.com, 51 valuing shares Motley Fool, 205 overview, 206 realvisionresearch.com, 324 relative to competitors, 206–207 reuters.com, 52, 199 share-price justification, 207–210 spindices.com, 172 VectorVest, 57 stockcharts.com, 51, 74, 319–320 VEGI (fertilizers and agricultural chemicals), 231 tdameritrade.com, 47 VG (Vonage), 201 thinkorswim.com, 48 volume traders.com, 325 heavy, 64 tradestation.com, 48, 319 and price, 96 Yahoo! Economic Calendar, 322 role in charting, 64–65 Yahoo! Finance, 52, 150, 178, 218, 322 trader commitment in, 35 zacks.com, 54 volume weighted average price (VWAP), 247 weekly chart, 261–262 Vonage (symbol: VG), 201 Western Digital (symbol: WDC), 85, 108–109 Wharton School of Business, 35 W Williams, John Burr, 147 W&T Offshore (symbol: WTI), 235–236 Wall Street, 24 Walt Disney (symbol: DIS), 254–255 wash sale rule, 9–10 WDC (Western Digital), 85, 108–109 Web sites adrbnymellon.com, 268 winning mindset, 59–60 withdrawals, accounting for, 281–287 WOOD (timber), 231 WTI (W&T Offshore), 235–236 X XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR), 231 adr.com, 231, 268 XOM (Exxon Mobil), 234 ally.com, 47 XRT (S&P Retail ETF Index), 143 bloomberg.com, 175 esignal.com, 51 etf.com, 18 etrade.com, 47, 51 fidelity.com, 47, 51 fool.com, 205 ftserussell.com, 288 gmo.com, 321 Google Finance, 52, 218 highgrowthstock.com, 54, 317 idealratings.com, 18 interactivebrokers.com, 48 investors.com, 54, 317 344 Swing Trading For Dummies Y Yahoo! (symbol: YHOO), 238 Yahoo! Economic Calendar, 322–323 Yahoo! Finance, 52, 150, 178, 218, 322 Yahoo! Finance portfolio tool, 322 YHOO (Yahoo!), 238 Z zacks.com (Web site), 54 Zacks Investor Software, 55 About the Author Omar Bassal, CFA, is the founder and managing director of Shukr Investments, a socially responsible investment management company He began investing in 1994 and has held senior positions in investment companies in the United States and the Middle East In the Middle East, Bassal was the head of asset management at MASIC, a leading institutional family office based in Riyadh where he oversaw local and international public equity, private equity, and real estate fund investments managed in accordance with Islamic principles He also worked as head of asset management at NBK Capital, the investment arm of the largest and highest rated bank in the Middle East In the United States, Bassal worked as a portfolio manager at Azzad Asset Management where he managed mutual funds in accordance with Islamic principles Bassal holds an MBA with honors in finance, management, and statistics from the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania He graduated summa cum laude with a bachelor’s of science degree in economics, also from the Wharton School He has appeared on RealVision television and contributed articles to Barron’s and other financial media Dedication To my mother, my mother, and my mother — Maha Al-Hiraki Bassal To my father, Dr Aly Bassal and to my second parents, Wagma Fana Khalil and Faiz Khalil To my beloved wife, Khushbo Fana Khalil, my sisters, Suzanne and Sarah, my four brothers-in-law and all my nephews and nieces They have always supported me in easy and difficult times Author’s Acknowledgments Writing this second edition presented unique challenges that didn’t exist when writing the first manuscript Not only did the world change in terms of technology and regulations, but markets also changed Reading through the first edition, I sometimes found myself disagreeing with the author — a sign that my views had changed and an update was needed For this reason, I believe the second edition of Swing Trading For Dummies offers old and new readers insights into today’s fast moving markets But first things first, I must thank those who made this second edition a reality I would like to thank Tracy Boggier, the Senior Acquisitions Editor at Wiley, who first approached my agent, Marilyn Allen, with the idea of updating the first edition of Swing Trading For Dummies Tracy is the consummate professional and guided me through the process of updating the contents of this book I would also like to thank Chad Sievers who served as the development editor Chad was the first to read the revised chapters and offer comments and suggestions I would also like to thank Mohammed Zafar Ali, the production editor at Wiley, who was patient with me despite my many edits of the text after the copy was finalized Ian Woodward, one of my first trading mentors, was fond of saying “Many hands make light work” and that saying applies to the writing and publishing of this book Though not involved directly in my project, per se, my family supported me throughout That meant a lot It’s not something I can put into words — even as a writer Publisher’s Acknowledgments Senior Acquisitions Editor: Tracy Boggier Production Editor: Mohammed Zafar Ali Project Editor: Chad R. 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Swing Trading Swing Trading 2nd Edition by Omar Bassal, CFA Founder and Managing Director of Shukr Investments Swing Trading For Dummies? ?, 2nd Edition Published by: John... piques your interest For additional information you can access on a regular basis, check out the Cheat Sheet at www .dummies. com Swing Trading For Dummies Getting into the Swing of Things IN THIS... 12 Swing trading as your primary source of income 12 Swing trading to supplement income or improve investment returns 13 Swing trading just for