building resilience adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods most at risk to climate change impacts in central viet nam

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECT Building Resilience Adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods most at risk to climate change impacts in Central Viet Nam Ha Noi, 2010 MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECT Building Resilience: Adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods most at risk to climate change impacts in Central Viet Nam Ha Noi, 2010 Copyright 2010 by Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Published in Vietnamese and English with the approval of MONRE and UNDP Publishing license number: Responsible for contents: Assoc Prof Dr Truong Manh Tien Editing: Dr Julie-Ann Ellis Dr Nguyen Trung Thang MSc Kim Thi Thuy Ngoc Printed in Ha Noi, Viet Nam iii Acronyms CBCNRM CCFSC CIDA DARD DONRE FGD GDP HVCA ICZM IMHEN IMOLA IPCC MARD MOIT MOLISA MONRE MPI NCAP NTP PEP SEA SEDP SLF UNDP UNFCCC UNIFEM VNRC Community-Based Coastal Natural Resources Management Central Committee for Flood and Storm Control Canadian International Development Agency Department of Agriculture and Rural Development Department of Natural Resources and Environment Focus Group Discussion Gross Domestic Product Hazard Vulnerability Capacity Assessment Integrated Coastal Zone Management Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment Integrated Management of Lagoon Activities Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Ministry of Industry and Trade Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment Ministry of Planning and Investment Netherlands Climate Assistance Programme National Target Programme Poverty and Environment Project Strategic Environmental Assessment Socio-Economic Development Plans Sustainable Livelihood Framework United Nations Development Programme United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change United Nations Development Fund for Women Vietnamese Red Cross iv Table of Contents ACRONYMS iii TABLE OF CONTENTS .iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ix A EXECUTIVE SUMMARY A.1 Approaching coastal livelihoods in a changing climate A Addressing issues of scale A Supporting equitable adaptation A Migration and relocation as livelihood diversification A Hard and soft infrastructure A Sectoral climate-resilient approaches B INTRODUCTION B.1 Objectives and research questions B.2 Methodology B.3 Conceptual approaches employed B.4 Climate change effects B.5 Vulnerability to climate change B.6 Policy and institutional context 10 B.7 Additional stresses posed by climate change 10 C RURAL LIVELIHOOD TRENDS 13 C.1 Introduction to study sites 13 C Overview of livelihood activities in study areas 14 C 2.1 Location and livelihoods 14 C 2.2 People’s perception of poverty 17 C.3 Water and livelihoods 19 C.4 Analysis of dominant livelihoods and livelihood changes 20 C 4.1 Dominant livelihoods 20 C 4.2 Declining asset quality: agriculture 22 C 4.3 Declining asset quality: fishing and aquaculture 22 C 4.4 Responding to declining livelihood assets: migration 24 C.5 The role of institutions in livelihood change 25 C 5.1 Effects of external interventions 25 C 5.2 Social capital and livelihoods 27 C.6 Resource degradation as a driver of livelihood change 27 C 6.1 Livelihood and resource changes 27 C 6.2 Overall decline in quantity and quality of aquatic products 28 C 6.3 Pollution, climatic hazards, and the declining productivity of the aquaculture sector 30 D LOCAL PERCEPTIONS OF CLIMATE HAZARDS AND RISKS TO LIVELIHOODS AND CURRENT LOCAL RESPONSES 33 D.1 Local perception of climatic hazards and trends 33 v D.2 Local perceptions of hazard impacts on livelihoods 33 D Current climate change coping and adaptation strategies 34 D 3.1 Local adaptation 34 D 3.2 Improvements to infrastructure 35 D.4 Current impacts of climate change on habitat 36 D Likely future impacts 37 D 5.1 Increasing climatic fluctuations 38 D 5.2 Impacts of projected sea level rise 40 D 5.3 SLR 2100 inundation impacts on predominantly agricultural livelihood zones: Quang An and Hong Loc 43 D 5.4 SLR 2100 inundation impacts on predominantly fishing and aquaculture livelihood zones: Vinh Hien and Ky Ninh 43 D 5.5 Sea level rise: potential livelihood ‘winners’ and ‘losers’? 48 D Current emergency responses to hazards 50 D 6.1 Hazard vulnerability – who is most at risk? 50 D 6.2 ‘Disaster response’: preparation for and responses to hazards 52 D 6.3 Preparing for the future? 55 E RECOMMENDATIONS: ACHIEVING A CLIMATE-RESILIENT FUTURE 57 E Livelihood pathways 57 E 1.1 Adaptive strategies for three pathways 57 E 1.2 Tailoring adaptive strategies 57 E 1.3 Redefinition of the mandate of rural extension services 58 E 1.4 Balancing regional and local objectives 58 E 1.5 Adopting a regional approach to community-based coastal natural resource management (CBCNRM) 59 E 1.6 Infrastructure versus living structures 59 E 1.7 ‘Managed retreat’ 59 E 1.8 New infrastructure as new livelihood opportunity 60 E 1.9 Social ecologies require spatial planning 61 E 1.10 Climate change and health 61 E 1.11 Human capital and migration 61 E Adaptive strategies for climate-resilient livelihoods 62 E 2.1 Building climate-resilient agriculture 62 E 2.2 Building climate-resilient fishing and aquaculture 62 E 2.3 General support for building climate-resilient livelihoods 63 E 2.4 Wider measures to minimise impacts of climate change on the livelihood resource-base 63 E 2.5 Improving water storage and management 63 E 2.6 Mainstreaming emergency response planning into provincial and district planning processes and assist awareness-raising 64 E 2.7 Planning and managing early responses to sea-level rise 64 E 2.8 Improving resettlement processes for vulnerable households and communities 64 E 2.9 Building adaptive strategies for temporary migrants 65 E 2.10 Building adaptive strategies for permanent migrants 65 vi BIBLIOGRAPHY 67 ANNEX METHODOLOGY 75 ANNEX 2: CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS AS USED IN THE STUDY 79 ANNEX 3: METHODOLOGY USED IN PREPARATION OF GIS MAP 95 ANNEX 4: ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORKS 97 ANNEX 5: NATIONAL POLICY SETTING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION .101 ANNEX 6: LIVELIHOOD TABLES 107 ANNEX 7: VILLAGE MAPS 113 ANNEX 8: CLIMATE HAZARD TRENDS OBSERVED BY VILLAGERS 119 ANNEX 9: SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STUDY SITES 121 ANNEX 10: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS: IMAGINING A DIFFERENT URBAN FUTURE .155 FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1: Sustainable Livelihoods Framework .7 Figure 2: Four study sites - Hong Loc Commune in Loc Ha District and Ky Ninh commune in Ky Anh District (Ha Tinh Province); Quang An Commune in Quang Dien District, and Vinh Hien Commune in Phu Loc District (Thua Thien Hue Province) 13 Figure 3: Land use map of Hong Loc Commune, Ha Tinh Province (classified from SPOT, 2007) showing location of villages included in study 15 Figure 4: Spot 2007 land use map for Ky Ninh Commune, Ha Tinh Province showing location of villages included in study 16 Figure 5: Land use map of Quang An Commune, Thua Thien Hue Province 16 Figure 6: Land use map for Vinh Hien Commune, Thua Thien Hue Province (derived from SPOT image, 2007), showing location of villages included in study 17 Figure 7: Analysis of capital assets at village level in study village, Thua Thien Hue 21 Figure 8: Poor and virtually landless – the situation of the elderly 22 Figure 9: Map of Vinh Hien Commune, showing nò sáo distribution and navigation routes IMOLA, 2009 27 Figure 10: Near-shore fishing socio-ecological cycle 29 Figure 11: Problem tree produced by group of river and lagoon fishermen, Hien Hoa II village, Vinh Hien Commune, TT Hue 30 Figure 12: Flow chart outlining of shrimp production (aquaculture) problem in Thang Loi Village, Ky Ninh Commune, Ha Tinh Province 31 Figure 13: Poor female-headed household, still affected by the trauma of a cyclone 34 Figure 14: A successful aquaculture strategy 35 Figure 15: Freshening and salinising in the Tam Giang lagoon 36 Figure 16: How are climate hazards degrading the resource base? 37 Figure 17: Cross-fluctuating climatic hazards 38 Figure 18: Tam Giang Lagoon, showing 2007 flood inundation area 41 Figure 19: Tam Giang Lagoon, SLR2100 (IMHEN 2009) 41 Figure 20: Tam Giang – Cau Hai Lagoon 42 Figure 21: Inundation area of SLR200 (IMHEN NCAP scenario) 42 Figure 22: Quang An Commune land use map 2007 (left) and inundation area of under SLR2100 (right) 44 Figure 23: Elevation map of Hong Loc showing SLR2100 (left) and MONRE 2005 land use map showing inundation area (right) 45 vii Figure 24: Vinh Hien Commune land use before sea level rise 46 Figure 25: Vinh Hien Commune land use after rise of metre (MONRE 2005) 46 Figure 26: Land use 2007 map with inundation area SLR2100 46 Figure 27: Vinh Hien Commune inundation area 2007 land use map 47 Figure 28: Ky Ninh land use (MONRE 2005) showing area inundated under SLR2100 47 Figure 29: Ky Ninh 2007 land use map showing area inundated under SLR2100 48 Figure 30: Additional water surface area created by metre sea-level rise 49 Figure 31: Percentage of paddy lost Communes (out of total paddy allocation MONRE 2005) 49 Figure 32: House on stilts, Hien Hoa II Village 51 Figure 33: Concrete house, roof lost due to typhoon, Hien Hoa II Village 51 Figure 34: Vulnerability of aquaculture to hazards 52 Figure 35: Poverty trap and recent hazard experiences of a young farming family 55 Table 1: Changes in annual mean temperature (0C) relative to period from 1980-1999) North Central Region Table 2: Changes in annual rainfall (%) relative to the period of 1980 – 1999, North Central Region Table 3: Sea level rise (cm) relative to period of 1980 - 1999 Table 4: Poor, medium and well-off households, and movement between groups, as classified by villagers 18 Table 5: Water resources used for consumption and production in study areas 20 Table 6: Principal hazards and associated impacts on livelihoods, as identified by villagers 33 Table 7: Potential impact of climate change on water resources, ecosystem and coastal communities’ livelihoods 39 Table 8: Coping and rehabilitation measures in response to extreme hazards, My Xa Village, Quang An Commune, Thua Hien Hue Province 53 Table 9: Specifications for satellite data 95 Table 10: List of maps and other spatial data 95 Table 11: Lands cover classification legend 96 Table 12: Background to study locations in Ha Tinh Province, including key livelihood activities 107 Table 13: Background to study villages in Thua Thien Hue Province, including key livelihood activities 108 Table 14: Seasonal climatic conditions, hazard impacts and calendar of livelihood activities: Ha Tinh Province 109 Table 15: Seasonal climatic conditions, hazard impacts and calendar of livelihood activities: Thua Thien Hue Province 110 Table 16: Current livelihood activities and associated problems: study communes in Ha Tinh Province 111 Table 17: Current livelihood activities and associated problem 112 Table 18: Quang An land use and metre sea-level rise .126 Table 19: Quang An percentage land use areas affected by metre sea-level rise 126 Table 20: Vinh Hien land use area inundated by SLR2100 135 Table 21: Ky Ninh land affected by SLR2100 (based on MONRE 2005) .149 ix Acknowledgements PEP wishes to acknowledge all those who contributed to this Report They include all who participated in village fieldwork, focus group discussions at Commune, District and Provincial level and in Provincial Workshops in Ha Tinh and Thua Thien Hue In particular, the PEP wishes to thank Challenge to Change, who graciously donated the services of their staff, including Ms Nguyen Phuc Hoa, to undertake fieldworker training PEP wishes to thanks IMHEN for supplying the climate change maps and charts showing baseline data and scenario projections PEP wishes to thank Consultant team • • • Dr Michael Parsons Dr Tran Thi Viet Nga Dr Joanna White GIS consultant • Mr Tran Trung Kien, who prepared the GIS land use and projected sea-level rise maps The fieldworkers • • In Ha Tinh: Hoang Trung Lap, Dang Minh Ngoc, Tran Hau Khanh, Than Van Tu, Nguyen Van Kien and Tran Hai Ha In Thua Thien Hue: Nguyen Minh Duc, Pham Nguyen Thanh, Lam Thi Thu Suu, Pham Thi Dieu My, Le Thi Ngoc Suong and Bui Vinh Long The PMU • • • • Dr Truong Manh Tien Dr Nguyen Trung Thang Ms Kim Thi Thuy Ngoc Ms Nguyen Thi Ngoc Anh Thanks also go to peer reviewers for their suggestions and to Mr Dao Xuan Lai, Head, UNDP for support to the project ANNEX 9: SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STUDY SITES 147 Figure 80: Ky Ninh land use satellite image CODE, TYPES Figure 79: Ky Ninh land use satellite image Figure 81: Land use map of Ky Ninh (MONRE, 2005) Figure 82: Land use map of Ky Ninh 2007 (Source: SPOT image) Ky Ninh is geographically comparable with Vinh Hien, with similarly situated livelihood zones Fig 40 shows a fishing livelihood zone along the northern inlets and bank of the estuary and inland paddy areas The long beautiful coastal beach attracts domestic tourists, particularly from Ky Anh town Tourists are serviced by a guest house with rooms in Tam Hai 2, and small restaurants at Dong Tam villages Commune and district authorities expect that when the Vung Ang economic zone is fully operational, tourist activity in Ky Ninh commune will become a major economic activity A tourism development plan for Ky Ninh has been carried out by the Ky Anh District People’s Committee Figure 80: land use map of Ky Ninh 2007, derived from SPOT image Figure 80: land use map of Ky Ninh 2007, derived from SPOT image Figure 81: land use map of Ky Ninh 2007 (Source: SPOT image) Figure 81: land use map of Ky Ninh 2007 (Source: SPOT image) 219 219 148 A N N E X : S E A - L E V E L R I S E A N D S T U DY S I T E S Figure 83: Land use map of Ky Ninh (MONRE 2005) affected by SLR2100 Figure 82: land use map of Ky Ninh (MONRE 2005) affected by SLR2100 Figure 82: land use map of Ky Ninh (MONRE 2005) affected by SLR2100 Figure 84: Land use map of Ky Ninh 2007 affected by SLR2100 Figure 83: land use map of Ky Ninh 2007 affected by SLR2100 Figure 83: land use map of Ky Ninh 2007 affected by SLR2100 220 220 ANNEX 9: SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STUDY SITES The Ky Ninh allocated land use area vulnerable to SLR2100, (Fig 83) covers 606.65 hectares, including 177.99 hectares of water surface As mapped by satellite in 2007, (Figure 84) it covers 660.09 hectares, of which 265.30 hectares is water surface In the 2007 map, the area of Ky Ninh vulnerable to SLR2100 has increased by some 53 hectares Additionally, the amount of inundation area which was already water surface has increased by nearly 50% This may reflect impacts of coastal erosion and seawater intrusion on the northern coast, which has made some areas vulnerable which were not previously at risk In 2005, there was 66.53 hectares of protected forest; the 2007 map shows only 49.38 hectares of forest, a loss of 149 nearly 25.8% of forest area The 2005 map shows 283.93 hectares of other dry land area, made up of rural residential land, unused flat land and unused hilly land The 2007 map shows 311.95 hectares of dry land, including bareland and grass and bush; this is not an actual increase of dry land – the apparent increase is because of changes in land use – for example, land allocated as protected forest has reverted to grass and bush land, or bareland While surface use in the vulnerable area has generally shifted to less productive land-use, it should be noted that the 2007 map showed that 33.46 hectares of Ky Ninh’s vulnerable surface area was devoted to aquaculture; no surface area in the vulnerable zone was shown as devoted to aquaculture in the 2005 map Table 21: Ky Ninh land affected by SLR2100 (based on MONRE 2005) Land use Total used in 2005 Potentially lost to SLR % of total lost Paddy (inc “other paddy”) 95.98 15.86 16.52% Other annual crop 396.56 59.87 15.08% Rural residential 582.24 161.77 27.78% Industrial tree Paddy and crop 492.54 75.73 15.38% Figure 85: Land use allocation chart of Ky Ninh under 1metre of sea level rise (based on MONRE 2005) annual crop cemetery paddy protected forest rural resident unused flat land unused hill land water surface 150 A N N E X : S E A - L E V E L R I S E A N D S T U DY S I T E S Rural residential 582.24 161.77 27.78% Industrial tree -15.38% Figure Paddy and crop distribution of Ky Ninh, with area affected 75.73 86: Total population by SLR2100 492.54 Figure 85: Total population distribution of Ky Ninh, with area affected by SLR2100 Figure 87: Population distribution in area inundated by SLR2100 222 Figure 86: Population distribution in area inundated by SLR2100 Figure 46 and 47 show SLR2100 would inundate the coastal strip, including all beaches, and the south-eastern end of Ky Ninh Nascent tourism livelihoods would be curtailed, and the planned coastal tourism zone will be heavily impacted However, a larger intertidal and aquaculture resource area may be created Residential area land however, associated with aquaculture and marine fishing livelihood zones, as well as some ANNEX 9: SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STUDY SITES Figure 86 and 87 show SLR2100 would inundate the coastal strip, including all beaches, and the south-eastern end of Ky Ninh Nascent tourism livelihoods would be curtailed, and the planned coastal tourism zone will be heavily impacted However, a larger intertidal and aquaculture resource area may be created Residential area land however, associated with aquaculture and marine fishing livelihood zones, as well as some agriculture, would be reduced Five pagodas are shown to fall in the inundation area The Ba Chau temple site, attracting visitors every year to festival in March, would be transformed into an island While the Ky Ninh coastline would be reduced, access to the estuary would be widened, and a potential larger area for aquaculture would be created, including a widened sea mouth Apart from the large land area inundated, given no mitigation, a sizeable proportion of the population and three cemeteries would be affected Nearly kilometres of the Ky Ninh road network would be affected, and a new road network for the remaining land area would need to be established and typhoons and possible increased salinity For marine fishers, a widened sea mouth allowing easier passage for larger marine vessels could allow for safe mooring in the estuary This could encourage near-shore fishers to invest in larger boats and shift into far-shore fishing Erosion of coastline and loss of all tourist beaches would see the demise of budding secondary tourism livelihoods, including direct marketing of seafood produce to visitors, and the planned tourism expansion from the Vung An economic zone Inundation of residential areas, roads, and other infrastructure would also affect livelihoods Moreover, as previously mentioned, the ability of all wealth groups of fishers to convert any increased natural assets provided by an expanded lagoon into livelihood capital would be affected by climate change effects on lagoon ecology For the poorest groups, including mobile gear fishers dependent on open access resources, their capacity and rights to access any increased natural assets would also be a major determinant Livelihood winners and losers Evidence from the four study sites shows that loss of allocated paddy land through inundation by SLR2100 varies highly For all four Communes, if left unchecked, SLR2100 would inundate 24% of total land allocated for paddy For the two Ha Tinh Communes, 32.83% of the area allocated for paddy and other annual crop would be lost Effects of SLR2100 would create a larger potential area for lagoon fishing and aquaculture But off-setting such gains in natural assets are potential losses in physical assets due to increased exposure of the estuary to the open sea, storms Figure 88: Road map of Ky Ninh under SLR2100 Figure 87: Road map of Ky Ninh under SLR2100 Livelihood winners and losers Effects of SLR2100 would create a larger potential area for lagoon fishing and 151 152 A N N E X : S E A - L E V E L R I S E A N D S T U DY S I T E S Figure 89: Additional water surface area (ha) created by SLR2100 (MONRE 2005) 65.51 112.17 615.2 428.66 Quang An Vinh Hien Ky Ninh Hong Loc Figure 90: Percentage of paddy lost through SLR2100 out of total paddy allocation (MONRE 2005) 3.01% 30.09% 41.74% Hong Loc Ky Ninh Vinh Hien Quang An 16.52% Close proximity to the coastline is not a ready guide to severity of land use impacts, as can be seen from Hong Loc (The sea barrage being constructed in Loc Ha is expected to prevent such inundation.) However for livelihood groups within each Commune the situation is more complex With sea-level rise, croplands may be submerged and become areas which potentially could fuel aquaculture expansion, suggesting farmers losing out to fishers However, sea walls may close this option, and thus fishers lose out to famers (except later breaching of sea dykes could allow this option to revisited) If the projected inundation due to SLR2100 were to occur, there will be winners and losers within the farming group Given the same quality of land, poor farmers who have lost a smaller area, but a greater percentage of their total lands will be more severely affected than better-off farmers who have lost larger areas, but a smaller percentage of their total As poor farmers usually have less quality land than those who are better off, the disparity could be even more substantial Furthermore as there is no automatic right of those who have lost land from sea-level rise to benefit from the new water surface areas created, new land allocations will need to be sought However, evidence from Tam Hai Village demonstrates there is potential for farmers to shift across to fish farming, as an adaptive strategy to loss of agricultural productivity of land due to rising salinity However without re-skilling and financial assistance, this option is limited to farmers who can afford to make the move and meet the new start-up costs, and who can acquire the necessary technical skills Shrimp farmers and fishing groups who live along the waterline, watching over their livelihood equipment and facilities, are more likely to have their homes inundated than inland farmers Poor fishers may be less able to move or rebuild their livelihood operations than those who are better-off It may not be feasible for them to relocate and resettle along the new boundary, and the prospect of moving away from their fishing site operations may not be readily accepted As observed in Hien Hoa II Village, Vinh Hien Commune, some fishing households residing along the waterline exposed to typhoons and sea incursion have ANNEX 9: SEA-LEVEL RISE AND STUDY SITES already been ‘resettled’ inland But they have tended to use the new resettlement area only as an emergency refuge, and continue to live in the hazard-prone shoreline area, not wanting to move away from the seat of their livelihood Dependent upon the perceived rate of expansion, fishing households may also not have automatic rights to the newly extended water areas, or areas neighbouring their present operations The loss of fisheries access roads may create difficulties for some more than others, just as the location of reconstructed roads may benefit some more than others In the short-term, fishers must adapt to anticipated increased severity and duration of typhoons, rainfall inundation, floods, storm surges, as well as droughts that induce seawater intrusion into estuaries affecting brackish water aquaculture Projected sea-level rise impacts may not only produce winners and losers amongst particular livelihoods and groups with many or few livelihood assets, but also amongst geographical areas Communes which are poor in high ground may in future look enviously on those rich in elevated land While commune officials and villagers assess sea-level rise horizontally, as encroachment, they will also need to think vertically, in planning future strategic use of their elevated land resource The study shows a wide range of endowments exists in Central region coastal communes As a ‘mountainous commune’, Hong Loc is very rich in elevated land However Vinh Hien and Ky Ninh are much less endowed Moreover SLR2100 in Ky Ninh would convert its strategically located hill site into an island For all livelihood groups in low-lying shoreline communities, as the sea encroaches, elevated land will increasingly be at a premium As it may be needed by communities for resiting of essential service facilities, early proactive rezoning for future public purposes would be prudent Commune-level environmental regulations may be needed to prevent physical depletion through extractive use, and to ensure long-term security of the resource Those households already possessing and continuing to have rights to such land may find themselves with an increasingly valuable asset 153 ANNEX 10: Socio-economic Scenarios: Imagining a different Urban future Figure 91: Urban population as percentage of total population (constant rate) Urban population (%age) 80 70 60 50 40 Urban pop.%age 30 20 10 2009 2020 2030 2040 2050 Year Figures released from the latest census show that in 2009, around 70% of Vietnam’s population live in rural areas, and 30% live in urban areas If the current rate of urban population was maintained, by 2047 this situation would be reversed Around 70% of Vietnam’s population would live in urban areas, and 30% live in rural areas By 2050, 75% of the population would be living in cities On these projections, the answer to the question what is the future of coastal rural livelihoods in Central Vietnam is – urban livelihoods Can the shift from coastal rural livelihoods in Central Viet Nam to urban livelihoods be made more sustainable? Can the social and economic distance between family members engaged in rural and urban livelihoods be shortened? What are the limits to growth of Vietnam’s cities? What should the shape of future urban growth be like? The value of diversity can be applied to these elements to construct a general socio-economic growth scenario In this model it is assumed that higher system diversity leads to enhanced resilience In ecosystems this principle is in evidence as biodiversity, and in social systems as a wider range of options for accessing livelihood assets The reverse is also posited, that decreased or lower diversity within the system and subsystems reduces resilience Higher diversity generally subsumes principles of decentralisation, lower density and more openness Lower diversity generally subsumes principles of centralisation, higher density, and more closure.184 Steffen, W et al, Global Change and the Earth System: a Planet under Pressure Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA; 184 Levin for example, argues that diversity is a crucial part of a robust ecosystem, and is concerned that homogenization of agriculture will lessen ecosystem resilience Largescale crop monocultures may be especially vulnerable to new pest outbreaks.185 Colding et al found that after the 1990 and 1991 tropical cyclones in Samoa, subsistence polyculture crops survived much better than cash crop monocultures Research concluded that a diverse mix of crops and cultivars would best secure a resilient food supply from impacts of tropical cyclones.186 Similarly, in Viet Nam, Ton That Phap has shown how polyculture is more resilient than monoculture in aquaculture.187 A number of other studies have drawn similar conclusions.188 Levin S Fragile Dominion 1999 Colding,Elmqvist, and Olsson 2003 p.167 187 Ton That Phap, Management of Biological Resources in Tam Giang Lagoon from a Socio-economic Cultural Viewpoint, International Symposium on Protection and Management of Coastal Marine Ecosystem, 2000 188 See for example: Thorsten B H Reusch, Anneli Ehlers, August Hämmerli, and Boris Worm Ecosystem recovery after climatic extremes enhanced by genotypic diversity PNAS February 22, 2005 Vol 102 No 2826-283; Walker, B and J A Meyers 2004 Thresholds in ecological and social–ecological systems: a developing database Ecology and Society 9(2): 3.; Steffen, W., et al 2004 F.S Chapin III et al , G Peterson, F Berkes, T V Callaghan, P Angelstam, M Apps, C Beier, Y Bergeron, A.-S Crépin, K Danell, T Elmqvist, C Folke, B Forbes, N Fresco, G Juday, J Niemelä, A Shvidenko, and G Whiteman Resilience and Vulnerability of Northern Regions to Social and Environmental Change AMBIO: pp 344–349 Stephen R Carpenter (2002) Ecological Futures: Building an Ecology of the Long Now Ecology: Vol 83, No 8, pp 2069-2083 A Randall Hughes and John J Stachowicz, Genetic diversity enhances the resistance of a seagrass ecosystem to disturbance PNAS June 15, 2004 vol 101 no 24 8998-9002 185 186 156 A N N E X 10 : S O C IO - E CON OM IC S C E N A R IO S : I M AG I N I N G A DI F F E R E N T U R B A N F U T U R E Shifting to polyculture has had positive impacts on periurban livelihoods in Viet Nam The shift from a rice monoculture to a polyculture in Hung Long Commune in HCM City’s suburban district of Binh Chanh for example, helped to double or triple local farmers’ income Increased returns have come from intensive rice farming, along with organic vegetables, flowers, and fruit trees Farmers are now harvesting double rice crops yielding four tonnes per hectare a year, due to the Commune’s heavy investment in a new irrigation system The system includes river dykes and field embankments to prevent flooding caused by annual strong tides Alternative crops however are producing even higher returns Organic vegetable farming has earned growers VND80 million (US$4,600) per hectare a year, double that of rice cultivation According to the Commune People’s Committee chairman the Commune was now restructuring its agriculture, with a focus on bonsai, orchid planting, cow breeding and ornamental fish breeding In the future, it aims to develop high-tech services such as telecoms, electronics, and information technology.189 Other areas lack such vision Peri-urban rice farmers with land close to main highways on the edge of the major cities find their land in demand for warehouses and manufacturing plants and other private enterprises It has been estimated that approximately 50 000 hectares of agricultural land is being lost to industrialisation in this manner every year.190 Viet Nam’s increasing urban bi-polarity At the beginning of the 21st Century, for the first time in history, more people are living in cities than are living outside them, due to natural increase, migration and reclassification Reclassification, where rural residents wake up one morning to find themselves re-badged as urbanites following extension of city administrative boundaries has been historically prominent in the development of Vietnam’s two major cities.191 The most notable recent example has been the absorption of the entire Province of Ha Tay into the city of Ha Noi (where it is now locally referred to as Ha Noi2 after the television station).192 Phan and Coxhead see urban industrial bi-polarity as an increasing trend They note that in 1999, 60% of the value of all industrial output in 1999 came from Ba Ria-Vung Tau, Dong Nai, and Binh Duong in the South and Ha Noi and Viet Nam News 21-08-2009 Viet Nam News 12 May, 2004) P45 191 Gubry P and Thi Huong L., Ho Chi Minh City: A Future Megacity in Vietnam Vietnam’s Socio-Economic Development No 40 Winter 2004 192 This merger increased Hanoi population by 2.5 million to 5.5 million (2004 census) 189 190 Hai Phong in the North In 2002, this rose to 64%, with the four provinces surrounding HCMC accounting for 50%, and HCMC itself 22% According to Mekong Economics (2002), 60% of all licensed foreign direct investment projects and 53% of total registered capital were to be found in the South, while industrial centres in the North accounted for 19.4% and 25%.193 Gurby and Huong broke down HCMC into urban, periurban and rural components, and found 73% to be urban The 2004 census listed HCMC rural districts as constituting 16% of the city’s population of 6.12 million In HCMC, though authorities have promoted relocation of residents to the outer city limits and land prices have sharply risen in the city centre, migrants have continued to gravitate towards and settle down in the more central districts that are nearest to their home area and workplace.194 Figure 92 projects HCMC’s urban area population growth to 2030 at an annual growth rate of 3.6% (the accepted growth rate prior to the 2004 census).195 Figure 93 shows the estimated 2007 urban population (HCMC Statistical office data) Greater HCMC (registered residents plus migrant workers) is considered at time of writing to be exceeding million.196 Increase in urban over rural living standards, lessening of residential controls and strong export-oriented foreign direct investment giving employment to new migrants is seen as driving urban growth However while industrial zones give formal employment, a spin-off in centralized urban growth is the parallel growth in the less regulated informal sector which attracts poor unskilled rural migrants, with around 70% of the total population continuing to live in rural areas Rural out-migration of young workers remains highly favoured by rural parents and families Migration According to 2004 statistics on population trends and family planning the North Central region has the highest rate of net ex-migrants (accounting for 2,8%).197 Phan and Coxhead found that internal migration, either as rural-rural migration (where mainly older, less educated, or entire families permanently relocate) and rural-urban migration (where mainly young, single and more educated makes Phan, Diep N and Coxhead, Ian, Interprovincial Migration and Inequality During Vietnam’s Transition(August 9, 2007) 194 Gubry and Huong 2004 p 64 195 Gubry and Huong 2004 data p67 196 HCMC Statistical Office Urban districts; http://en.wikipedia org/wiki/Ho_Chi_Minh_City 197 GSO and National Committee of Population, Family and Children, 2005, quoted in MONRE SOE Report 2006 p.6 193 ANNEX 10: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS: IMAGINING A DIFFERENT URBAN FUTURE Figure 92: pre-2004 census HCMC Population Growth Population (million) 12 10 2015 2020 2030 Years Figure 93: HCMC Population estimates 2004-2007 Population (million) HCMC Population Growth 5,600,000 5,500,000 5,400,000 5,300,000 5,200,000 5,100,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 2004 2005 2006 Year 2007 157 A N N E X 10 : S O C IO - E CON OM IC S C E N A R IO S : I M AG I N I N G A DI F F E R E N T U R B A N F U T U R E Figure 94: Labour export 1991-2003.204 Labour Export 80,000 70,000 60,000 Number 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 158 Year temporary or seasonal move) are less a result of individual decision-making as part of a whole household livelihood strategy.198 A major strategy objective is to insure against adversity by accessing different income streams Ha and Ha’s (2001) investigation into female labour migration, assessed livelihood impacts as improving migrants skills, knowledge and income and provision of remittances improving non-migrant family living standards, including increasing educational opportunities for children Village benefits include reduction in population pressure and diversification of the rural economy as some migrants returned home to establish new enterprises by employing newly acquired skills, knowledge and savings villages after saving some capital and acquiring new skills By setting up their own businesses in their villages or communes, these returnees contribute to the diversification of rural economic sectors.199 If income (including remittances) is taken as the main determinant for migration rather than other factors such as loss or acquisition of land, then it is possible to assess whether the poorer a province is, the more people want to migrate (income differential) Or alternatively, the poorer a province is, the less money there is available for the poor to migrate (liquidity constraints) Phan and Coxhead found that for HCMC and surrounding provinces, the 198 Phan D., and Coxhead I., 2007 Inter-provincial migration and inequality during Vietnam’s transition Staff Paper #507 Dept of Agricultural and Applied Economics, University of Wisconsin Madison p.9 199 Ha, T.P.T and Ha, Q.N (2001) Female Labour Migration: Rural - Urban Ha Noi: Women’s Publishing House, quoted in Mekong Economics May 2004 Situation Analysis: Emerging Gender Issues in Viet Nam during Economic Integration NCFAW-UNDP-RNE Project VIE-01-015 p.45 liquidity constraint dominates.200 They calculated the overall income/distance trade-off as a 0.73% increase in destination income required to offset a 1% increase in distance.201202 Taking into account the role of social networks in supporting migration choices, shorter distances should be favoured over longer ones If this holds true for those poor residing in more remote areas, a less bipolar and more multipolar growth scenario may see them more inclined to choose the migration option, other factors being equal However, given current levels and rates of investment, the blossoming bipolar HCMC/Ha Noi megacity model may continue to satisfy this trade-off more easily than any budding multipolar model Alternatively, becoming even more attractive is overseas labour exports As seen in Figure the overseas labour export market has experienced very rapid growth, from 1998 to 2003 an increase of around 600% This growth is largely demand-driven, and vulnerable to international economic downturns This is evidenced by the retrenchments resulting from the current global financial crisis Possible futures Two possible, plausible social ecological directions can be conjectured for future socio-economic growth patterns The first is a continuation of current bi-polar trends towards the growth of two megacities of Hanoi and HCMC The Phan and Coxhead p.22 Ibid p.19 202 Ministry of Planning and Investment (2003) Review of Implementation of Three-year Plan (2001-2003) and Projections for Two Years (2004-2005) on Labor Export Ha Noi 200 201 ANNEX 10: SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIOS: IMAGINING A DIFFERENT URBAN FUTURE Figure 96: Diversity growth scenario Pathways Path A: Lower Diversity Path B: Higher Diversity Society Ecology Bi-polar mega-cities: Expanded HN and HCMC, increased centralised Government and industry Dense urban core, intensive resource use, concentrated environmental impacts Urbanisation Multi-polar smaller regional centres, Less intensive urban increased decentralised Government and core area, dispersed industry environmental impacts More anonymity, social alienation; fewer, larger, more dense, more costly urban areas206 Less effective delivery of provisioning services ; increased pollution, spread of disease Health (urban areas) Less anonymity, social alienation; more, More effective delivery of smaller, lower- cost, less dense urban areas provisioning services; less polluted and less vulnerable to spread of disease Migration Decrease in rate of rural migration to Hanoi Less vulnerable to invasion and HCMC, increase to new small regional of pest species cities, more job-commuting Increased rural out-migration to expanded More vulnerable to Hanoi, HCMC; but elsewhere limited invasion of pest species Society Ecology More monoculture,207 homogenisation; Loss of biodiversity, Household farming / More polyculture, heterogeneity; more More support for biodiversity more reliance on purchased inputs - decreased support for fishing livelihoods reliance on recycling waste as farm inputs, maintenance, natural chemical fertilisers, pesticides; less natural disease resistance more biological pest control; organic, disease resistance integrated waste recycling as farm inputs, integrated farming systems Direct and indirect promotion of urban migration as main pathway out of poverty for rural poor Megacities potentially more diverse, offering wide range of job opportunities, but poor lacking education dominate lowpaid, low security informal sector Rural areas focus on lower-value, higher volume products and services to limited, restricted markets Off-farm income Lower-cost migration to closer urban areas and more commuting, but smaller cities potentially less diverse; Overseas labour export and globalised house-holding Fewer and more narrow specialised range of job opportunities Rural areas focus on higher-value, lower volume products and services to wider, open markets Centralised banking and credit, microfinance dominated by informal mutual aid schemes Finance and Credit Decentralised banking and credit legal framework for microfinance institutions rural Modernisation of livestock sector achieved As above for the selected Modernised through heavy investment in selected areas sector (eg livestock) areas in large-scale, intensive, primarily export-oriented industrial farms, possible out-rearing done by traditional farms alternative is a shift towards massive decentralisation of industry, business and Government into multi-polar dispersed regional centres While the two options can best be understood as tracking at polar ends of a continuum, suggested internal attributes are not mutually exclusive (A megacity is defined by the UN as an aggregate urban area with a resident population greater than eight million.203 ) 204205 Cities in Viet Nam may continue to grow like an oil spill; concentrated and densely populated at the centre and UN Department of International Social and Economic Affairs Population Policy Papers (on megacity growth policies) No.5, 1986; No 10, 1987; No 18, 1989 204 ‘metropolisation’ results in ‘densification’ of newly incorporated urban areas Gubry, op cit p.69 In HCMC, metropolisation is encouraged by Saigon South and similar projects 205 Levin op cit 203 Continued promotion of livestock for rural poor as first step on path out of poverty, 208 with easy access to insurance.209 Modernised livestock sector achieved through extensive light investment in upgraded traditional farms linked into regional networks largely for domestic markets diluting into less densely populated peri-urban areas, or like bamboo;206with clusters of urban satellite townships separated from the central metopolis by surroundring periurban agriculture Effective rapid transportation207system 206 For coastal poor livelihoods of most at-risk groups, livestock is a major source of cash income Acquisition of this productive and reproductive form of capital is desirable as it has the potential if not sold to intensify the new income stream Obtaining a small loan for livestock is usual first step on the path out of poverty ADB May 2006 Pathways Out of Rural Poverty and the Effectiveness of Poverty Targeting Special Evaluation Study 94 Reference Number: SST: OTH 2006-08 207 According to Dufhues, T et al 2004, a “formal agricultural insurance market hardly exists in Vietnam and farm households have to rely mainly on informal mutual aid schemes The offering of sustainable livestock insurance is mostly hampered by unreliable data on livestock mortality and by politically low set premiums.” Dufhues, T., Lemkeb U., and Fischera I., New ways for rural finance? Livestock insurance schemes in Vietnam Conference on International Agricultural 159 160 A N N E X 10 : S O C IO - E CON OM IC S C E N A R IO S : I M AG I N I N G A DI F F E R E N T U R B A N F U T U R E has been seen as facilitating the bamboo growth model.208 In the future, it could also be encouraged through making low-cost high-speed broadband internet access widely available to the public Widely adopted, the bamboo Research for Development Deutscher Tropentag 2004 p1 208 Asher, Francois 1995 Metapolis ou l’avenir des villes Paris Odile Jacob p.345 quoted in Gubry and Huong p.69 model can lead to a process of ‘rurbanisation’209 where rural environs, while remaining geographically distinct, increasingly engage in urban transactions and provision of non-agricultural services to urban areas, including a commuter labour-force 209 Dick and Rimmer 1998, ‘Beyond the Third World city: the new urban geography of South-east Asia’, Urban Studies, Vol 35, No 1, pp 43-76 ...MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT POVERTY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROJECT Building Resilience: Adaptive strategies for coastal livelihoods most at risk to climate change impacts in Central. .. need to be a strong player in ensuring equitable outcomes of climate change adaptation strategies Coping strategies focus on what to when things go bad Adaptation strategies focus on what makes... by climate change However for building ecological resilience Provincial Governments will need to think, and to act, laterally Appropriate focal scales for action for many of these adaptive strategies