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THE UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS THE VIETNAM NETHERLANDS PROJECT FOR M A PROGRAMME IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS SOCIOECONOMIC DETERM[.]
THE UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HOCHIMINH CITY VIETNAM INSTITUTE OF SOCIAL STUDIES THE HAGUE THE NETHERLANDS THE VIETNAM-NETHERLANDS PROJECT FOR M.A PROGRAMME IN DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN HOCHIMINH CITY BY NGUYEN LUONG HONG HANH IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS IN ECONOMICS OF DEVELOPMENT SUPERVISOR: HOANG THI CHINH, Ph.D HOCHIMINH CITY, 2003 CERTIFICATION "I certify that the substance of this dissertation has not already been submitted for any degree and is not being currently submitted for any other degree I certify that to the best of my knowledge any help received in preparing this dissertation, and all sources used, have been acknowledged in this dissertation" i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to express an enormous appreciation to my academic supervisor Dr Hoang Thi Chinh for her invaluable guidance along the way ofmakin·g this thesis Great gratitude is also expressed to Dr Karel Jansen and Dr Youdi Schipper for their academic advices on the thesis proposal Dr Nguyen Thi Thieng, who gave me huge support in terms of courage, suggestions and comments from the first stages of doing this research to its completion, is as well truly appreciated I am very grateful to all project teachers and staff for their useful lectures, material and services Many thanks are owned to my classmates, especially Ms Luong Thi Chung Thuy and Mr Luong Vinh Quoc Duy, who lent me a great helping hand in collecting data for this research Last but not least, I thank my dear family for their spiritual encouragement and support during the time of doing this work ii TABLE OF CONTENTS CERTIFICATION i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF TABLES ~ v LIST OF FIGURES vi ABBREVIATIONS vii ABSTRACT viii Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT 1.2 OBJECTIVE OF THE THESIS 1.3 RESEARCH QUESTIONS 1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 1.5 ORGANIZATION OF THE THESIS Chapter II: LITERATURE REVIEW AND EMPIRICAL STUDIES II.l FERTILITY AND ITS MEASURES II.2 MODELS OF FERTILITY DETERMINANTS , II.2.1 The household demand model II.2.2 Synthesis model 12 1!.2.3 Bongaarts model 15 II.2.4 Reasons for choosing the research model 16 II.3 EMPIRICAL STUDIES ON FERTILITY DETERMINANTS 17 II.4 CHAPTER OUTLINE 22 Chapter III: FERTILITY IN VIETNAM AND HCMC 23 III.1 HCMC GENERAL CONDITIONS 23 III.2 POPULATION 26 III.2.1 Vietnam 26 11!.2.2 HCMC 27 iii III.2.3 Policies on population and fertility 28 11!.3 FEATURES OF FERTILITY IN VIETNAM AND HCMC 30 11!.3.1 Trends 30 111.3.2 Socioeconomic differentials 32 11!.3 CHAPTER OUTLINE 37 Chapter IV: DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN HCMC 38 IV.1 ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK AND RESEARCH METHODS 38 IV.1.1 Analytical Framework 38 IV 1.2 Research Methods 41 IV.2 DETERMINANTS OF FERTILITY IN HCMC ~ 44 IV.2.1 Descriptive Statistics 44 IV.2.2 Regression Analysis 52 IV.3 CHAPTER OUTLINE 57 Chapter V: CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS 59 V.1 CONCLUSION 59 V.2 RECOMMENDATIONS 60 V.3 FURTHER RESEARCH 61 APPENDIX A - QUESTIONAIRE 62 APPENDIX B 64 APPENDIX C ~ 65 BIBLIOGRAPHY 66 iv LIST OF TABLES Table III.l: Education Levels HCMC, 1989-1999 25 Table III.2: Levels of education of population aged over five years HCMC, 19791999 25 Table III.3: TFRs HCMC, 1989-1999 31 Table !11.4: ASFRs and TFRs by urban and rural areas Vietnam, 1989-1999 33 Table 111.5: ASFRs and TFRs by urban and rural areas HCMC, 1999 33 Table iV.l: Calculation for sample size 43 Table IV.2: Description ofvariables 45 Table IV.3: Distribution ofCEB 46 Table IV.4: Relationship between fertility and completed years of schooling 50 Table IV.5: Relationship between fertility and household income 51 Table IV.6: Regression results for CEB 53 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure III.l: Trends ofTFRs Vietnam, 1959-1999 30 Figure III.2: Natural Increase Rates(%) HCMC, 1975-1999 31 Figure III.3: Fertility differentials by education attainment Vietnam, 1999 34 Figure III.4: Fertility differentials by occupation category Vietnam, 1999 35 Figure III.5: Fertility differentials between rural and urban by quintile 36 Figure IV.l: Fertility changes between rural and urban by age group 48 Figure IV.2 Fertility changes between rural and urban by women's schooling 49 Figure IV.3: Relationship between fertility and completed years of schooling 50 Figure IV.4: Relationship between fertility and household income 51 vi ABBREVIATIONS ASFR Age-Specific Fertility Rate CBR Crude Birth Rate CEB Children Ever Born GFR General Fertility Rate GSO General Statistics Office HCMC HoChiMinh City HSCPH HCMC Steering Committee for Population and Housing Census 01/4/1999 HSO HoChiMinh City Statistics Office NCPF National Committee for Population and Family Planning OLS Ordinary Least Squares TFR Total Fertility Rate VNDHS Vietnam Demographic and Health Survey VLSS Vietnam Living Standard Survey vii ABSTRACT This thesis examines the effect of female schooling and household income on fertility in HoChiMinh City using data collected from the personal survey in 2003 The first method of descriptive statistics presents the correlations between fertility and female schooling, household income and location by summarized data and graphs The second method of regression analysis estimates a reduced form equation in which the number of children ever born is regressed on the mother's age and completed years of schooling, household income and area variables The equation is estimated using ordinary least squares (OLS) The study reveals some findings as follows: schooling reduces fertility, while income raises it Urban residence is negatively associated with fertility Parts of population who still have high fertility rates are of low levels of education or are living in rural districts From these findings, some recommendations are suggested for enhancing population and family planning programs in order to reach the objective of fertility reduction viii Chapter I: INTRODUCTION 1.1 PROBLEM STATEMENT Population is one of the biggest concerns to development economists and policy makers because of its extensive impact on the economic development (Ray, 1998:295) Population growth is strongly determined by fertility level (Tran, 1999:106) The world history has experienced fluctuation in population growth and fertility level, such as an unprecedented and unanticipated 'baby boom' followed by an almost equally startling 'baby bust' And population controlling policies have also been changing from time to time, different from one country to another, from incentives to childbearing in the developed countries facing low fertility in the Great Depression to measures of lowering the fertility rate in the less-developed countries in the post-World War II era (Eatwell et al, 1987 :302) Studying fertility behavior will provide us insights into how population is changing around us Moreover, a better understanding of fertility level and pattern will significantly assist the process of policy making Policies influencing fertility rate could in turn have an effect on population growth On the other hand, according to Nguyen (200 1), mastering of fertility level and pattern will provide more accurate projections For example, to estimate budget on primary education, the analysts need to figure out the number of children going to primary school, which could be accessed through fertility studies Projection of labor force is likewise worked out (Nguyen, 2001:1 ) In the case of Vietnam, a developing country, explosive population growth and high fertility rate attribute to a wide range of social, economic, and ecological problems (NCPF, 1999:3); and the current population growth is not in line with the development ... years of schooling of women on the fertility rate in HCMC in 2003 There is a negative effect of the household income on the fertility rate in HCMC in 2003 1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY All types of data... regarding to the subject Chapter three draws a general picture about fertility status in Vietnam and HCMC Chapter four is the analysis of socioeconomic determinants of fertility rate in HCMC, basing... issues of timing of births, child spacing, changing fertility and changing determinants (Nguyen, 2001: 12) In order to restrict these limits, researchers could use the indicator of CEB by recent fertility,