(Luận án tiến sĩ) mối quan hệ giữa đầu tư và dòng tiền trong bối cảnh sở hữu nhà nước và cải cách hệ thống ngân hàng ở việt nam

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING OF VIETNAM UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY [Company name] [Document title] TU THI KIM THOA [Document subtitle] Firms’ Investment – Cash Flow Relationship In The Context Of State Ownership And Banking System Reform In Vietnam DOCTORAL THESIS Kim Thoa Tu Ho Thi Chi Minh City, June 2020 [Date] luan an i MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING OF VIETNAM UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS HO CHI MINH CITY TU THI KIM THOA Firms’ Investment – Cash Flow Relationship In The Context Of State Ownership And Banking System Reform In Vietnam DOCTORAL THESIS Specialization: Finance and Banking Code: 9340201 Supervisors: VU VIET QUANG, Ph.D NGUYEN THI UYEN UYEN, Ph.D Kim Thoa Tu Thi [Date] Ho Chi Minh City, 2020 luan an ii STATEMENT OF AUTHORSHIP I hereby declare that this submission is my own work and except where due reference is made; this thesis contains no material previously published or written by another person(s) This thesis does not contain material extracted in whole or in part from a thesis or report presented for another degree or diploma at University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City or any other education institution Tu Thi Kim Thoa June 2020 luan an iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First and foremost, I would like to express deepest gratitude to my supervisors, Dr Vu Viet Quang and Dr Nguyen Thi Uyen Uyen, for their continual guidance and mentorship, invaluable support, remarkable patience, useful feedback, and spiritual encouragement during the completion of my thesis My thesis can not be completed without their supervisions, which provided me with much precious advice to expedite my thesis completion I would like to thank the University of Economics Ho Chi Minh City for its generous financial support of my PhD studies I also wish to thank all the colleagues at the UEH School of Finance, School of UEH Graduates and others for their great and continuing encouragement and full support during my PhD candidature My gratitude also goes to my colleagues at UEH who have constantly given a great help, support and encouragements to me not only during but also before the completion of my thesis Finally and most importantly, I would like to thank my friends and family for their unconditional love, immense, constant and endless support and encouragements during my life I would have been unable to finish the thesis without their supports and encouragement And I also wish to dedicate this thesis to my late mother who is always in my heart luan an i TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS i LIST OF TABLES ii LIST OF FIGURES v ABSTRACT vi CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION 1.1 Thesis motivations 1.2 Thesis objectives 1.3 Firm’s investment – cash flow relationship in the context of state ownership in Vietnam 1.3.1 Objectives and hypotheses 1.3.2 Data 1.3.3 Methodology 1.3.4 Empirical findings 1.3.5 Contributions 1.4 Firm’s investment – cash flow relation in the context of banking system reform in Vietnam 1.4.1 Objectives and hypotheses 1.4.2 Data 1.4.3 Methodology 1.4.5 Contributions 10 1.5 Thesis structure 10 CHAPTER 2: OVERVIEW ON VIETNAM’S ECONOMIC REFORMS 11 2.1 Overview on Vietnam’s economy 12 2.2 Overview on equitization of state owned enterprises of Vietnam 20 2.3 Overview on Vietnam’s banking system reform 24 2.4 Chapter summary 29 luan an ii CHAPTER 3: FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS AND INVESTMENT: A THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND LITERATURE REVIEW 31 3.1 Theories of investment 33 3.1.1 The Modigliani-Miller Theorem (MM) 34 3.1.2 Neo-classical model 34 3.1.3 Sales accelerator model 35 3.1.4 Tobin’s Q model 36 3.1.5 The Euler model 38 3.2 Financial constraints and investment: a literature review 39 3.2.1 Financial constraint and investment 39 3.2.2 State Ownership and Investment–Cash Flow Relations 48 3.2.3 Banking system reform and investment – cash flow relation 50 3.2.4 Financial leverage, growth opportunity and investment relation 51 3.3 Chapter summary 53 CHAPTER 4: FIRM’S INVESTMENT – CASH FLOW RELATIONSHIP IN THE CONTEXT OF STATE OWNERSHIP IN VIETNAM 54 4.1 The study introduction 55 4.2 Literature review and hypothesis development 57 4.2.1 Relation between investment and cash flow 57 4.2.2 State Ownership and Investment–Cash Flow Relations 60 4.2.3 State Ownership and Investment–Leverage Relation 62 4.3 Research design 63 4.3.1 Testing Investment–Cash Flow Relation 63 4.3.2 Testing the Impact of State Ownership on Investment–Cash Flow Relations 66 4.3.3 Testing the Impact of State Ownership on Investment–Leverage Relations 67 4.3.4 Data 67 4.4 Empirical results 68 luan an iii 4.4.1 Descriptive Statistics 68 4.4.2 Empirical Results 70 4.4.3 Robustness Check 83 4.5 Conclusion 92 4.6 Chapter summary 93 CHAPTER 5: FIRM’S INVESTMENT – CASH FLOW RELATIONSHIP UNDER THE CONTEXT OF BANKING SYSTEM REFORM IN VIETNAM 94 5.1 The Stuty Introduction 95 5.2 Literature review 98 5.2.1 Investment – cash flow relation 98 5.2.2 Effect of banking system reform on investment – cash flow relation 100 5.3 Research methodology 101 5.3.1 Hypothesis development and model specification 101 5.3.2 Data 106 5.4 Empirical results 107 5.4.1 Descriptive statistic 107 5.4.2 Correlations 109 5.4.3 Regression results 111 5.4.4 Robustness check 129 5.5 Study conclusion 130 5.6 Chapter summary 131 CHAPTER 6: CONCLUSION 133 6.1 Introduction 133 6.2 Firm’s investment – cash flow relationship in the context of state ownership in Vietnam 133 6.2.1 Research findings 133 6.2.2 Research contributions, implications and policy recommendations 134 6.2.3 Research limitations and future research directions 136 luan an iv 6.3 Firm’s investment – cash flow relationship in the context of banking system reform in Vietnam 137 6.3.1 Research findings 137 6.3.2 Research contributions , implications and policy recommendations 138 6.3.3 Research limitations and future research directions 140 LIST OF AUTHOR’S PUBLICATIONS 141 REFERENCES 142 APPENDIX 148 luan an i ABBREVIATIONS Agribank Vietnam Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development ASEAN Association of Southest Asian Nations ATFA ASEAN Free Trade Agreement BIDV Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam CPI Comsumer Price Index FDI Foreign direct investment GDP Gross Domestic Products HCMC Ho Chi Minh City HNX Hanoi Stock Exchange HOSE Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange JSCB Joint-stock commercial bank JVB Joint – venture bank MM Modigliany and Miller Theorem SBV State Bank of Vietnam SOCB State-owned commercial bank SOE State owned enterprise US United States of America VCB Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam Vietinbank Vietnam Industrial and Commercial Banks WTO World Trade Organization luan an ii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 Main economic indicators of Vietnam, 1986 – 2018 19 Table 2.2 Stages of SOE equitization in Vietnam (1992 – 2018) 21 Table 2.3 Credit institutions of Vietnam, 2010 - 2017 26 Table 2.4 Foreign banks’ branches in Vietnam 27 Table 3.1 Summary of Financial Constraint Proxies 47 Table 4.1 Sample structure 68 Table 4.2 Variable descriptive statistic 69 Table 4.3 Differences between non state-owned and state-owned 70 enterprises Table 4.4 Analysis of relation between investment and cash flow 73 Table 4.5 Impact of state ownership on investment – cash flow 76 relation Table 4.6 Impact of state ownership on relation between investment 78 and cash flow under different growth opportunities Table 4.7 Impact of state ownership on the investment and leverage 81 relations Table 4.8 Impact of state ownership on the relations between investment - leverage under different growth opportunities luan an 82 150 Linear relationship between investment and cash flows (1) IK CFK L.SG LEV 0.0209*** (14.80) -0.00204 (-0.31) 0.0335 (1.13) (2) IK -0.00921 (-1.59) 0.120*** (4.21) -0.0167 (-0.33) -0.0112 (-1.27) (3) IK 0.0224*** (17.38) -0.00266 (-0.40) 0.0481 (1.45) SIZE -0.0132*** (-2.62) -0.0159*** (-2.80) AGE 0.00284 (1.05) 0.000888 (0.21) 0.00185 (0.62) BETA -0.0430*** (-3.33) -0.00956 (-0.44) -0.0404*** (-2.79) _cons 0.426*** (5.90) 0.427*** (4.11) 0.458*** (5.22) N R-sq 2734 773 1961 t statistics in parentheses * p F = 0.0000 luan an 159 xtreg IK CFK CFKSQR l.SaleGrowth LEV SIZE AGE BETA,fe Fixed-effects (within) regression Group variable: X_ID Number of obs Number of groups = = 2481 641 R-sq: Obs per group: = avg = max = 3.9 within = 0.0132 between = 0.0002 overall = 0.0076 corr(u_i, Xb) F(7,1833) Prob > F = -0.0472 = = IK Coef CFK CFKSQR 0063911 0000497 0035055 0000344 SaleGrowth L1 .0007476 LEV SIZE AGE BETA _cons -.0295671 0056091 -.0244476 -.026626 2011257 sigma_u sigma_e rho 42364878 64205246 30332155 (fraction of variance due to u_i) F test that all u_i=0: Std Err t P>|t| 3.51 0.0010 [95% Conf Interval] 1.82 1.45 0.068 0.148 -.0004841 -.0000177 0132662 0001171 0014871 0.50 0.615 -.0021689 0036642 0777154 0116821 0060138 0271851 1472434 -0.38 0.48 -4.07 -0.98 1.37 0.704 0.631 0.000 0.327 0.172 -.1819871 -.0173025 -.0362423 -.0799431 -.0876567 1228529 0285207 -.0126529 0266911 4899081 F(640, 1833) = 1.30 Prob > F = 0.0000 xttest3 Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (641) = Prob>chi2 = 7.5e+09 0.0000 Testing investment – cash flow relationship xtgls IK CFKPOS CFKNEG l.SaleGrowth LEV SIZE AGE BETA i.X_ID i.T_ID, p(h) Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression Coefficients: Panels: Correlation: generalized least squares heteroskedastic no autocorrelation Estimated covariances = Estimated autocorrelations = Estimated coefficients = 641 639 IK Coef Std Err CFKPOS CFKNEG 0157487 -.0049034 0027344 0033463 SaleGrowth L1 .0006839 LEV SIZE AGE BETA -.0625214 0172359 0012561 -.0380689 X_ID -.3295833 -.3487145 -.2880367 -.171073 -.1859982 Number of obs Number of groups Obs per group: avg max Wald chi2(638) Prob > chi2 z = = = = = = = 2481 641 3.870515 6753.82 0.0000 P>|z| [95% Conf Interval] 5.76 -1.47 0.000 0.143 0103894 -.011462 0211079 0016552 0001478 4.63 0.000 0003943 0009735 0083003 0013755 0009879 00255 -7.53 12.53 1.27 -14.93 0.000 0.000 0.204 0.000 -.0787897 0145399 -.0006802 -.0430668 -.046253 0199319 0031924 -.0330709 1005061 1096718 1093619 0989869 1269743 -3.28 -3.18 -2.63 -1.73 -1.46 0.001 0.001 0.008 0.084 0.143 -.5265716 -.5636673 -.5023821 -.3650837 -.4348632 -.132595 -.1337616 -.0736913 0229377 0628667 luan an 160 esttab a b c d e f, star(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) (1) IK CFK L.SaleGrowth 0.00358** (2.54) (2) IK 0.00429*** (3.17) (3) IK 0.0512*** (9.66) 0.000706*** (4.56) 0.000695*** (4.49) -0.00274 (-0.76) SIZE 0.0186*** (13.24) 0.0186*** (13.40) 0.00110 (0.37) LEV -0.0508*** (-6.06) -0.0541*** (-6.39) AGE 0.00124 (1.24) BETA -0.0403*** (-15.43) CFKSQR _cons N 0.000582 (0.59) -0.0392*** (-15.80) 2481 0.268*** (2.79) 2481 0.163*** (13.50) -0.0124*** (-4.42) -0.00205 (-0.81) -0.00538*** (-5.03) -0.00487*** (-4.54) -0.111*** (-13.93) -0.0532*** (-3.37) -0.0278*** (-7.30) -0.0241*** (-6.26) -0.00361*** (-12.48) 0.358*** (3.73) 0.264*** (3.00) 697 697 (3) IK 0.0157*** (5.76) 0.0614*** (9.31) 0.0110*** (3.66) 0.000684*** (4.63) SIZE 0.0172*** (12.53) LEV -0.0625*** (-7.53) AGE 0.00126 (1.27) BETA _cons N -0.00770** (-2.04) 0.00842* (1.84) -0.00516 (-1.27) -0.000341 (-0.20) 0.00314** (2.20) -0.622*** (-19.97) 0.0476*** (5.26) 0.0334*** (14.77) -0.00320*** (-3.05) -0.0381*** (-14.93) -0.116*** (-17.49) -0.0258*** (-7.55) 0.287*** (2.99) 0.288*** (2.79) 0.451*** (5.16) 2481 697 0.00430*** (2.95) 0.0277*** (7.36) (2) IK L.SaleGrowth 0.00366*** (2.67) 0.0272*** (8.22) (1) IK 0.0127 (0.78) -0.00127 (-0.70) 0.0495*** (4.91) esttab g h i , star(* 0.1 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) -0.00490 (-1.47) -0.00108 (-0.61) 0.00333** (2.02) 0.0672*** (6.81) CFKNEG 0.00162* (1.76) (6) IK -0.513*** (-16.75) t statistics in parentheses * p