Factors affecting vietnamese commercial banks’ deposit growth from 2012 to 2020

MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF BANKING BUI NHU Y FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2020 GRADUATION THESIS Major: Finance – Banking Code: 34 02 01 HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2022 MINISTRY OF EDUCATION AND TRAINING THE STATE BANK OF VIETNAM HO CHI MINH CITY UNIVERSITY OF BANKING Student: BUI NHU Y Student ID: 050606180469 Grade: HQ6-GE12 FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2020 GRADUATION THESIS Major: Finance – Banking Code: 34 02 01 SUPERVISOR NGUYEN THI MY HANH, PHD HO CHI MINH CITY, NOVEMBER 2022 i TÓM TẮT Mục tiêu nghiên cứu xác định nhân tố ảnh hưởng đến tăng trưởng tiền gửi ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam Bài viết sử dụng 198 quan sát 22 ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam giai đoạn từ năm 2012 đến năm 2020, với biến phụ thuộc Tăng trưởng tiền gửi biến độc lập bao gồm Khả sinh lời, Tăng trưởng GDP, Tỷ lệ vốn chủ sở hữu, Tỷ lệ cho vay tiền gửi, Quy mô ngân hàng, Nợ xấu, tăng trưởng Cung tiền Lạm phát Các phương pháp ước lượng mơ hình hồi quy gộp (Pooled OLS), mơ hình hiệu ứng cố định (FEM), mơ hình hiệu ứng ngẫu nhiên (REM) ước lượng tác động ngẫu nhiên (FGLS) sử dụng để phân tích liệu Kết nghiên cứu cho thấy, biến yếu tố kinh tế vĩ mô tăng trưởng Cung tiền M2 tăng trưởng GDP có tác động nghịch đến tăng trưởng tiền gửi ngân hàng thương mại Mặt khác, tỷ lệ lạm phát phát có mối quan hệ chiều khơng có ý nghĩa thống kê Các biến đặc thù ngân hàng Khả sinh lời có mối tương quan thuận với tăng trưởng tiền gửi, đó, quy mơ ngân hàng tỷ lệ vốn chủ sở hữu có tác động ngược chiều đáng kể mặt thống kê Tỷ lệ cho vay tiền gửi Nợ xấu ảnh hưởng không đáng kể tăng trưởng tiền gửi ngân hàng thương mại Cuối cùng, nghiên cứu môi trường kinh tế vĩ mô ổn định quan trọng để giảm tác động tăng trưởng kinh tế cung tiền M2 từ góc độ ngân hàng cụ thể, tăng khả sinh lời điều cần thiết cho tăng trưởng tiền gửi ngân hàng thương mại Việt Nam Từ khóa: tăng trưởng tiền gửi, yếu tố vĩ mô, biến đặc thù ngân hàng, ngân hàng thương mại, Việt Nam ii ABSTRACT The purpose of this study is to determine the factors affecting deposit growth of commercial banks in Vietnam The paper uses 198 observations of 22 Vietnamese commercial banks from 2012 to 2020, with dependent variable Deposit growth and independent variables including Profitability, GDP growth, Equity ratio, Loans to Deposits ratio, Bank size, Non-performing loans, Money supply growth and Inflation Pooled OLS, FEM, REM and FGLS methods have been used to analyze the data The result of the study indicates branch macroeconomic factors such as Money supply growth M2 and GDP growth have a significant negative effect on Deposit growth of commercial banks The inflation rate, on the other hand, has been found to have a positive but statistically insignificant relationship The bank-specific factors indicate Profitability has a positive and significant association, while Bank size and Equity ratio have a statistically significant negative effect on deposit growth Loan to Deposit ratio and Non-performing loans have no significant relationship with deposit growth of commercial banks Finally, the study shows that a stable macroeconomic environment is vital to reduce the impact of economic growth, M2 money supply and from a bank-specific perspective, increasing profitability is essential for the growth of deposits in commercial banks in Vietnam Keywords: deposit growth, macroeconomic, bank-specific, commercial banks, Vietnam iii AUTHOR’S DECLARATION I hereby confirm that this thesis entitled “FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2020”, is my own work, and none of this work has been published before submission Ho Chi Minh City, November 2022 Bui Nhu Y iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to express my sincere thanks to the Board of Directors, Faculty of Finance, Faculty of Banking, lecturers, officials of departments and functional departments of Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City for helping me to equip my knowledge, create the most favorable conditions during the study and implementation of this thesis With respect and gratitude, I would like to express my gratitude to Nguyen Thi My Hanh, PhD for encouraging, guiding, and helping me throughout the entire process so that the thesis research process can be completed in the best way v TABLE OF CONTENT ABSTRACT ii AUTHOR’S DECLARATION iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv TABLE OF CONTENT v ABBREVIATION LIST viii LIST OF TABLES ix LIST OF PICTURES x CHAPTER INTRODUCTION .1 1.1 Rationale 1.2 Research objectives 1.3 Research questions 1.4 Subject and scope of the study 1.4.1 Research subject 1.4.2 Research scope 1.5 Research method .2 1.6 Contribution of the thesis 1.7 Structure of the thesis .3 CHAPTER LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Theoretical framework 2.1.1 Commercial bank 2.1.2 Commercial Bank Deposit 2.1.3 Factors affecting for Deposit growth 2.1.3.1 Bank size 2.1.3.2 Profitability 2.1.3.3 Equity ratio 2.1.3.4 Loan to Deposit ratio 2.1.3.5 Non-performing loans 2.1.3.6 Inflation 10 2.1.3.7 GDP growth .10 vi 2.1.3.8 Money supply growth 11 2.2 Empirical review .11 2.2.1 Empirical Review from abroad 11 2.2.2 Empirical Review in VietNam 14 CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER RESEARCH METHOD 18 3.1 Research model .18 3.1.1 Research model 18 3.1.2 Research variables 19 3.2 Research hypothesis 20 3.3 Research data 21 3.4 Selection of regression model and tests 21 3.5 Research process .25 CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER 25 CHAPTER RESEARCH RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 27 4.1 Descriptive statistics .27 4.1.1 Check the correlation between variables 28 4.1.2 Multicollinearity diagnostics 29 4.2 Analysis of factors affecting Deposit Growth 30 4.2.1 Regression results 30 4.2.2 Model choice 31 4.2.3 Testing the hypothesis violations of the FEM 32 4.2.3.1 Heteroskedasticity diagnostics 32 4.2.3.2 Autocorrelation diagnostics .32 4.2.3.3 Fix the defects of the model .32 4.3 Discuss the influence of factors on Deposit Growth 33 CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER 36 CHAPTER CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 37 5.1 Conclusions .37 5.2 Recommendations 38 5.3 Limitation of the study 39 vii CONCLUSIONS OF CHAPTER 40 CONCLUSIONS OF THE THESIS 42 REFERENCES 43 APPENDIX .46 44 Haddaweea, A H., & Flayyihb, H H (2020) The relationship between bank deposits and profitability for commercial banks International and Journal of Innovation, Creativity Change, 13(7) Haron, S., Azmi, W N W., & Shafie, S (2006) Deposit determinants of commercial banks in Malaysia Finance India, 20(2), 531 Islam, S N., Ali, M J., & Wafik, A (2019) Determinants of Deposit Mobilization of Private Commercial Banks: Evidence from Bangladesh International Journal of Business and Management Invention (IJBMI), 8(10), 26-33 Jaber, A S., & Manasrah, M S (2017) The factors that affect to attract deposits in Palestinian Islamic banks Asian Journal of Finance & Accounting, 9(1), 261273 Kalpana, B., & Rao, T V (2017) Role of commercial banks in the economic 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Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics, 376, 112827 46 APPENDIX Appendix 1: List of commercial banks selected for the research No Name of Banks Abbreviations Indications An Binh Commercial Joint Stock Bank ABBank ABB Asia Commercial Joint Stock Bank ACB ACB BIDV BIDV Eximbank EIB HDbank HDB Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Investment and Development of Vietnam Vietnam Export Import Commercial Joint Stock Ho Chi Minh city Development Joint Stock Commercial Bank Kien Long Commercial Joint Stock Bank Kienlongbank KLB LienViet Commercial Joint Stock Bank LienVietPostBank LPB Maritimebank MSB The Maritime Commercial Joint Stock Bank Military Commercial Joint Stock Bank MB MBB 10 Nam A Commercial Joint Stock Bank NamABank NAB 11 National Citizen Bank NCB NCB 12 Orient Commercial Joint Stock Bank OCB OCB PGbank PGB Sacombank STB 13 14 Petrolimex Group Commercial Joint Stock Bank Saigon Thuong Tin Commercial Joint Stock Bank 47 15 16 17 18 Saigon Bank for Industry & Trade 21 22 SGB SHB SHB Techcombank TCB VIB VIB Vietabank VAB Vietcombank VCB Vietinbank CTG VPbank VPB Saigon-Hanoi Commercial Joint Stock Bank Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint Stock Bank Vietnam International Commercial Joint Stock Bank Ngân hàng TMCP Việt 19 20 Saigonbank Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank of Industry and Trade Vietnam Commercial Joint Stock Bank for Private Enterprise Appendix 02 Research data Bank Year DG ROA CAP SIZE NPL LDR INF GDP ABB 2012 0.4190 0.0091 0.1065 17.6444 0.0229 0.7953 0.0681 0.0525 M2 growth 0.1259 ABB 2013 0.2933 0.0027 0.0997 17.8695 0.0480 0.9931 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 ABB 2014 0.2137 0.0019 0.0847 18.0271 0.0399 0.9347 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 ABB 2015 0.0538 0.0014 0.0899 17.9802 0.0275 0.8586 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 ABB 2016 0.0840 0.0035 0.0788 18.1219 0.0232 0.7610 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 ABB 2017 0.1237 0.0062 0.0724 18.2523 0.0220 0.9688 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 ABB 2018 0.0753 0.0082 0.0763 18.3153 0.0495 0.8666 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 ABB 2019 0.1175 0.0104 0.0765 18.4459 0.0659 0.9230 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 ABB 2020 0.0102 0.0766 18.5723 0.0706 0.9125 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 ACB 2012 0.0034 0.0716 18.9877 0.0138 0.8224 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 ACB 2013 0.0422 0.1194 0.1028 0.0048 0.0751 18.9311 0.0303 0.7793 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 ACB 2014 0.1195 0.0055 0.0690 19.0063 0.0218 0.7511 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 48 ACB 2015 0.1313 0.0054 0.0635 19.1211 0.0131 0.7823 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 ACB 2016 0.1837 0.0061 0.0602 19.2695 0.0087 0.7896 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 ACB 2017 0.1659 0.0082 0.0564 19.4656 0.0070 0.8278 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 ACB 2018 0.1185 0.0167 0.0638 19.6126 0.0073 0.8663 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 ACB 2019 0.1412 0.0169 0.0724 19.7649 0.0108 0.8997 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 ACB 2020 0.1463 0.0186 0.0797 19.9125 0.0059 0.8972 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 BID 2012 0.2601 0.0058 0.0551 19.9992 0.0270 1.1932 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 BID 2013 0.1183 0.0078 0.0589 20.1225 0.0187 1.1764 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 BID 2014 0.2997 0.0083 0.0517 20.2930 0.0203 1.0281 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 BID 2015 0.2818 0.0085 0.0498 20.5615 0.0168 1.0813 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 BID 2016 0.2859 0.0067 0.0438 20.7296 0.0199 1.0133 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 BID 2017 0.1845 0.0063 0.0406 20.9075 0.0162 1.0430 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 BID 2018 0.1508 0.0060 0.0415 20.9956 0.0190 1.0092 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 BID 2019 0.1258 0.0061 0.0521 21.1220 0.0175 0.9990 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 BID 2020 0.1010 0.0048 0.0525 21.1398 0.0176 0.9934 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 CTG 2012 0.3864 0.0128 0.0672 20.0372 0.0147 1.2664 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 CTG 2013 0.2608 0.0108 0.0942 20.1723 0.0100 1.0608 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 CTG 2014 0.1637 0.0093 0.0836 20.3096 0.0112 1.0462 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 CTG 2015 0.1621 0.0079 0.0720 20.4741 0.0092 1.0856 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 CTG 2016 0.3288 0.0078 0.0636 20.6705 0.0102 1.0053 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 CTG 2017 0.1494 0.0073 0.0582 20.8141 0.0114 1.0465 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 CTG 2018 0.0968 0.0047 0.0578 20.8754 0.0158 1.0367 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 CTG 2019 0.0811 0.0079 0.0623 20.9390 0.0116 1.0401 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 CTG 2020 0.1093 0.0107 0.0637 21.0170 0.0094 1.0226 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 EIB 2012 0.5000 0.0121 0.0929 18.9522 0.0132 1.3552 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 EIB 2013 0.1279 0.0039 0.0864 18.9503 0.0198 1.3867 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 EIB 2014 0.0003 0.0873 18.8975 0.0246 0.9112 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 EIB 2015 0.0003 0.1053 18.6426 0.0186 0.8532 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 EIB 2016 0.2756 0.0290 0.0398 0.0024 0.1044 18.6738 0.0295 0.8395 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 EIB 2017 0.1484 0.0059 0.0954 18.8219 0.0227 0.8531 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 EIB 2018 0.0098 0.0044 0.0975 18.8437 0.0185 0.8701 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 EIB 2019 0.0054 0.0940 18.9367 0.0171 0.8055 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 EIB 2020 0.0065 0.1048 18.8934 0.0252 0.7429 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 HDB 2012 0.1734 0.0385 0.4786 0.0067 0.1022 17.7817 0.0235 0.6991 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 HDB 2013 0.8208 0.0031 0.0997 18.2725 0.0367 0.7807 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 HDB 2014 0.0485 0.0051 0.0924 18.4159 0.0227 0.7383 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 HDB 2015 0.1396 0.0061 0.0924 18.4835 0.0159 0.8206 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 HDB 2016 0.3858 0.0071 0.0662 18.8281 0.0146 0.8123 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 HDB 2017 0.1669 0.0115 0.0780 19.0590 0.0152 0.8756 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 HDB 2018 0.0624 0.0158 0.0779 19.1911 0.0153 0.9646 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 49 HDB 2019 HDB 2020 0.0159 0.3857 KLB 2012 KLB 0.0180 0.0888 19.2513 0.0136 1.1547 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 0.0169 0.0774 19.5811 0.0132 1.0107 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 0.3760 0.0193 0.1854 16.7377 0.0293 0.9437 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 2013 0.2502 0.0157 0.1626 16.8776 0.0247 1.0526 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 KLB 2014 0.2456 0.0079 0.1456 16.9555 0.0195 0.8528 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 KLB 2015 0.2118 0.0068 0.1332 17.0472 0.0113 0.8058 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 KLB 2016 0.1399 0.0043 0.1105 17.2316 0.0106 0.8562 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 KLB 2017 0.1413 0.0060 0.0951 17.4352 0.0083 0.9365 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 KLB 2018 0.1180 0.0058 0.0886 17.5605 0.0086 1.0004 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 KLB 2019 0.1272 0.0014 0.0742 17.7493 0.0102 1.0080 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 KLB 2020 0.2763 0.0023 0.0684 17.8635 0.0542 0.8193 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 LPB 2012 0.6863 0.0142 0.1113 18.0114 0.0271 0.6997 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 LPB 2013 0.3439 0.0078 0.0914 18.1925 0.0248 0.5435 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 LPB 2014 0.0185 0.0733 18.4287 0.0110 0.5718 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 LPB 2015 0.0034 0.0706 18.4938 0.0088 0.7242 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 LPB 2016 0.4008 0.0025 0.4297 0.0085 0.0587 18.7704 0.0111 0.7198 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 LPB 2017 0.0090 0.0574 18.9119 0.0107 0.7860 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 LPB 2018 0.0057 0.0583 18.9808 0.0141 0.9493 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 LPB 2019 0.1558 0.0259 0.0952 0.0085 0.0623 19.1241 0.0144 1.0318 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 LPB 2020 0.2753 0.0084 0.0587 19.3059 0.0143 1.0014 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 MBB 2012 0.3149 0.0148 0.0770 18.9838 0.0186 0.8317 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 MBB 2013 0.1558 0.0128 0.0871 19.0106 0.0246 0.7790 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 MBB 2014 0.2316 0.0131 0.0855 19.1163 0.0273 0.6495 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 MBB 2015 0.0833 0.0119 0.1049 19.2139 0.0163 0.7188 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 MBB 2016 0.0730 0.0121 0.1038 19.3617 0.0132 0.8365 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 MBB 2017 0.1302 0.0122 0.0943 19.5645 0.0120 0.8947 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 MBB 2018 0.0899 0.0183 0.0943 19.7081 0.0133 0.9225 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 MBB 2019 0.1365 0.0209 0.0969 19.8353 0.0116 0.9449 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 MBB 2020 0.0190 0.1012 20.0200 0.0109 0.9644 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 MSB 2012 0.0020 0.0827 18.5153 0.0265 0.6592 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 MSB 2013 0.0030 0.0879 18.4894 0.0271 0.7063 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 MSB 2014 0.0014 0.0905 18.4634 0.0516 0.5584 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 MSB 2015 0.0011 0.1305 18.4629 0.0341 0.5682 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 MSB 2016 0.0014 0.1469 18.3439 0.0341 0.6648 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 MSB 2017 0.0012 0.1223 18.5361 0.0216 0.6485 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 MSB 2018 0.1403 0.0435 0.0991 0.0347 0.0095 0.0803 0.0128 0.1175 0.0069 0.1003 18.7411 0.0301 0.8364 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 MSB 2019 0.2730 0.0071 0.0947 18.8716 0.0204 0.8018 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 50 MSB 2020 0.0821 0.0121 0.0955 18.9900 0.0196 0.9227 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 NAB 2012 0.3539 0.0104 0.2047 16.5886 0.0271 0.8824 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 NAB 2013 0.5674 0.0060 0.1132 17.1753 0.0148 0.9744 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 NAB 2014 0.4854 0.0057 0.0893 17.4343 0.0140 1.0507 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 NAB 2015 0.1993 0.0045 0.0963 17.3842 0.0091 0.9140 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 NAB 2016 0.3985 0.0008 0.0801 17.5733 0.0294 0.6939 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 NAB 2017 0.1696 0.0049 0.0674 17.8126 0.0195 0.8935 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 NAB 2018 0.3594 0.0060 0.0564 18.1338 0.0154 0.9244 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 NAB 2019 0.3056 0.0083 0.0524 18.3661 0.0197 0.9465 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 NAB 2020 0.3889 0.0070 0.0491 18.7157 0.0083 0.9013 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 OCB 2012 0.0789 0.0087 0.1393 17.1269 0.0280 1.1915 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 OCB 2013 0.2517 0.0080 0.1209 17.3058 0.0290 1.0553 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 OCB 2014 0.2502 0.0061 0.1028 17.4815 0.0300 0.9498 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 OCB 2015 0.2346 0.0047 0.0855 17.7164 0.0190 0.9368 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 OCB 2016 0.4595 0.0068 0.0739 17.9715 0.0180 0.9385 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 OCB 2017 0.2355 0.0110 0.0728 18.2499 0.0176 0.9152 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 OCB 2018 0.1345 0.0191 0.0880 18.4203 0.0229 0.9354 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 OCB 2019 0.1454 0.0237 0.0974 18.5875 0.0184 1.0631 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 OCB 2020 0.2608 0.1143 18.8429 0.0169 1.0267 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 PGB 2012 0.5523 0.1659 16.7731 0.0844 1.2234 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 PGB 2013 0.1240 0.0261 0.0256 0.0017 0.1290 17.0294 0.0298 0.9869 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 PGB 2014 0.0052 0.1295 17.0651 0.0248 0.8011 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 PGB 2015 0.0016 0.1366 17.0216 0.0275 0.9312 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 PGB 2016 0.2989 0.0633 0.0849 0.0050 0.1408 17.0273 0.0247 0.9487 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 PGB 2017 0.2503 0.0024 0.1215 17.1930 0.0323 0.9264 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 PGB 2018 0.0204 0.0043 0.1233 17.2134 0.0306 0.9350 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 PGB 2019 0.0875 0.0024 0.1191 17.2678 0.0316 0.9233 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 PGB 2020 0.1319 0.0050 0.1087 17.4033 0.0244 0.8855 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 SGB 2012 0.0691 0.0193 0.2383 16.5137 0.0293 1.0287 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 SGB 2013 0.0336 0.0116 0.2384 16.5023 0.0224 0.9783 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 SGB 2014 0.0963 0.0123 0.2203 16.5770 0.0219 0.9406 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 SGB 2015 0.1096 0.0027 0.1911 16.6918 0.0188 0.8766 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 SGB 2016 0.0782 0.0079 0.1845 16.7625 0.0178 0.8773 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 SGB 2017 0.0029 0.1603 16.8751 0.0193 0.9437 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 SGB 2018 0.0020 0.1686 16.8297 0.0220 0.9306 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 SGB 2019 0.0480 0.0115 0.0674 0.0071 0.1561 16.9428 0.0194 0.9537 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 SGB 2020 0.1631 0.0043 0.1512 16.9912 0.0144 0.8632 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 SHB 2012 0.7471 0.0816 18.5737 0.0883 0.8322 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 SHB 2013 0.1696 0.0180 0.0010 0.0721 18.7827 0.0567 0.9691 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 51 SHB 2014 0.3577 0.0051 0.0620 18.9456 0.0203 0.8768 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 SHB 2015 0.2078 0.0043 0.0550 19.1371 0.0172 0.8995 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 SHB 2016 0.1192 0.0042 0.0566 19.2706 0.0187 1.0055 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 SHB 2017 0.1700 0.0059 0.0514 19.4715 0.0233 1.0318 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 SHB 2018 0.1556 0.0055 0.0505 19.5940 0.0240 0.9501 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 SHB 2019 0.1510 0.0070 0.0507 19.7161 0.0191 1.0111 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 SHB 2020 0.1711 0.0067 0.0582 19.8382 0.0183 0.9958 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 STB 2012 0.2945 0.0068 0.0901 18.8402 0.0205 0.9263 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 STB 2013 0.2251 0.0142 0.1057 18.8993 0.0146 0.8486 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 STB 2014 0.2386 0.0126 0.0952 19.0615 0.0119 0.7812 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 STB 2015 0.6006 0.0027 0.0756 19.4924 0.0580 0.7037 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 STB 2016 0.1175 0.0003 0.0668 19.6207 0.0691 0.6739 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 STB 2017 0.0967 0.0034 0.0631 19.7249 0.0467 0.6898 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 STB 2018 0.0923 0.0046 0.0607 19.8220 0.0213 0.7255 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 STB 2019 0.1473 0.0057 0.0590 19.9327 0.0194 0.7297 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 STB 2020 0.0677 0.0057 0.0588 20.0150 0.0170 0.7842 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 TCB 2012 0.2920 0.0042 0.0739 19.0081 0.0270 0.6938 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 TCB 2013 0.0764 0.0039 0.0876 18.8838 0.0365 0.6058 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 TCB 2014 0.0976 0.0065 0.0852 18.9854 0.0238 0.6735 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 TCB 2015 0.0801 0.0083 0.0857 19.0730 0.0167 0.8316 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 TCB 2016 0.0147 0.0832 19.2766 0.0158 0.8859 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 TCB 2017 0.0255 0.1000 19.4117 0.0161 1.0112 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 TCB 2018 0.2194 0.0143 0.1781 0.0287 0.1613 19.5869 0.0175 0.8388 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 TCB 2019 0.1484 0.0290 0.1618 19.7654 0.0133 1.0259 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 TCB 2020 0.1996 0.0306 0.1697 19.9014 0.0047 1.0207 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 TPB 2012 0.7865 0.0058 0.2195 16.5316 0.0366 0.7018 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 TPB 2013 0.5460 0.0162 0.1153 17.2840 0.0233 0.9168 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 TPB 2014 0.5088 0.0128 0.0823 17.7567 0.0122 0.9822 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 TPB 2015 0.8270 0.0088 0.0630 18.1491 0.0081 0.7710 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 TPB 2016 0.3943 0.0062 0.0534 18.4819 0.0075 0.9219 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 TPB 2017 0.2763 0.0084 0.0538 18.6367 0.0110 0.8983 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 TPB 2018 0.0831 0.0139 0.0780 18.7295 0.0112 1.0107 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 TPB 2019 0.2141 0.0206 0.0795 18.9180 0.0129 1.0407 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 TPB 2020 0.0189 0.0812 19.1449 0.0118 1.0534 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 VAB 2012 0.0070 0.1436 17.0186 0.0465 0.8464 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 VAB 2013 0.2538 0.1309 0.2550 0.0023 0.1327 17.1126 0.0288 0.7542 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 VAB 2014 0.0509 0.0015 0.1022 17.3876 0.0233 0.7904 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 VAB 2015 0.2356 0.0021 0.0936 17.5503 0.0226 0.8316 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 VAB 2016 0.3171 0.0019 0.0654 17.9340 0.0216 0.9411 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 VAB 2017 0.0687 0.0016 0.0639 17.9812 0.0149 1.0144 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 52 VAB 2018 0.2024 0.0017 0.0594 18.0823 0.0000 0.9071 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 VAB 2019 0.1465 0.0028 0.0581 18.1521 0.0000 0.9732 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 VAB 2020 0.2497 0.0041 0.0662 18.2760 0.0000 0.8066 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 VCB 2012 0.2111 0.0113 0.1006 19.8426 0.0303 0.8452 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 VCB 2013 0.1642 0.0099 0.0907 19.9661 0.1256 0.8303 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 VCB 2014 0.2708 0.0088 0.0754 20.1733 0.0231 0.8846 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 VCB 2015 0.1855 0.0085 0.0670 20.3293 0.0184 0.8341 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 VCB 2016 0.1797 0.0094 0.0610 20.4849 0.0151 0.8490 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 VCB 2017 0.2000 0.0100 0.0508 20.7580 0.0114 0.8599 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 VCB 2018 0.1318 0.0139 0.0579 20.7947 0.0098 0.8547 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 VCB 2019 0.1578 0.0161 0.0662 20.9244 0.0079 0.8475 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 VCB 2020 0.1117 0.0145 0.0709 21.0056 0.0062 0.8573 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 VIB 2012 0.3901 0.0064 0.1297 17.9903 0.0275 0.8776 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 VIB 2013 0.1070 0.0007 0.1038 18.1577 0.0282 0.8295 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 VIB 2014 0.1344 0.0066 0.1054 18.2058 0.0251 0.8512 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 VIB 2015 0.0867 0.0063 0.1021 18.2500 0.0207 0.8855 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 VIB 2016 0.1118 0.0059 0.0836 18.4649 0.0258 1.0096 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 VIB 2017 0.1538 0.0099 0.0714 18.6290 0.0249 1.1671 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 VIB 2018 0.2411 0.0167 0.0767 18.7512 0.0252 1.1307 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 VIB 2019 0.4418 0.0202 0.0728 19.0333 0.0196 1.0547 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 VIB 2020 0.2288 0.0216 0.0735 19.3154 0.0174 1.1261 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 VPB 2012 0.4536 0.0069 0.0653 18.4471 0.0272 0.7733 0.0681 0.0525 0.1259 VPB 2013 0.4088 0.0091 0.0637 18.6135 0.0281 0.7236 0.0604 0.0542 0.2504 VPB 2014 0.2923 0.0088 0.0550 18.9107 0.0254 0.8203 0.0184 0.0598 0.1769 VPB 2015 0.0134 0.0691 19.0827 0.0269 0.9283 0.0063 0.0668 0.1623 VPB 2016 0.0186 0.0751 19.2482 0.0291 1.1947 0.0474 0.0621 0.1838 VPB 2017 0.2023 0.0498 0.0789 0.0254 0.1069 19.4422 0.0339 1.3614 0.0353 0.0681 0.1497 VPB 2018 0.2793 0.0245 0.1075 19.5941 0.0350 1.2855 0.0354 0.0708 0.1134 VPB 2019 0.2523 0.0236 0.1119 19.7483 0.0342 1.2046 0.0279 0.0702 0.1592 VPB 2020 0.0910 0.0262 0.1260 19.8534 0.0341 1.2511 0.0515 0.0291 0.2504 53 Appendix 03 Research results Picture Descriptive statistics summarize dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth Variable Obs Mean dg roa cap size npl 198 198 198 198 198 1982722 0087263 0921525 18.7283 0225616 ldr inf gdp m2growth 198 198 198 198 9077286 0389667 0592889 1746689 Std Dev Min Max 1646566 0069063 0373641 1.140195 0151771 -.1309 -.0256 0406 16.5023 827 0306 2384 21.1398 1256 1501965 0188302 0124013 0457102 543532 0063 0291 1134 1.386664 0681 0708 25042 Picture Correlation matrix between variables pwcorr dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth dg roa cap size npl ldr inf 1.0000 0.0402 -0.0506 -0.1197 0.0870 -0.0150 0.2041 -0.1322 0.0370 1.0000 0.1010 0.2982 -0.2183 0.2958 0.0571 -0.1081 0.0208 1.0000 -0.6414 0.1660 0.0014 0.1629 -0.0930 0.0110 1.0000 -0.1690 0.1558 -0.0759 -0.0226 0.0272 1.0000 -0.1048 0.2150 -0.0776 0.0594 1.0000 0.1029 -0.0255 -0.0262 1.0000 -0.5316 0.2683 gdp m2growth gdp m2growth 1.0000 -0.6898 1.0000 54 pwcorr dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth, star(0.01) dg dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth roa cap size 1.0000 0.0402 1.0000 -0.0506 0.1010 1.0000 -0.1197 0.2982* -0.6414* 1.0000 0.0870 -0.2183* 0.1660 -0.1690 -0.0150 0.2958* 0.0014 0.1558 0.2041* 0.0571 0.1629 -0.0759 -0.1322 -0.1081 -0.0930 -0.0226 0.0370 0.0208 0.0110 0.0272 npl ldr 1.0000 -0.1048 1.0000 0.2150* 0.1029 -0.0776 -0.0255 0.0594 -0.0262 inf 1.0000 -0.5316* 0.2683* gdp m2growth gdp m2growth 1.0000 -0.6898* 1.0000 pwcorr dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth, star(0.05) dg dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth roa cap size npl ldr 1.0000 0.0402 1.0000 -0.0506 0.1010 1.0000 -0.1197 0.2982* -0.6414* 1.0000 0.0870 -0.2183* 0.1660* -0.1690* 1.0000 -0.0150 0.2958* 0.0014 0.1558* -0.1048 1.0000 0.2041* 0.0571 0.1629* -0.0759 0.2150* 0.1029 -0.1322 -0.1081 -0.0930 -0.0226 -0.0776 -0.0255 0.0370 0.0208 0.0110 0.0272 0.0594 -0.0262 inf 1.0000 -0.5316* 0.2683* gdp m2growth gdp m2growth 1.0000 -0.6898* 1.0000 pwcorr dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth, star(0.1) dg dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth roa size npl ldr 1.0000 0.0402 1.0000 -0.0506 0.1010 1.0000 -0.1197* 0.2982* -0.6414* 1.0000 0.0870 -0.2183* 0.1660* -0.1690* 1.0000 -0.0150 0.2958* 0.0014 0.1558* -0.1048 1.0000 0.2041* 0.0571 0.1629* -0.0759 0.2150* 0.1029 -0.1322* -0.1081 -0.0930 -0.0226 -0.0776 -0.0255 0.0370 0.0208 0.0110 0.0272 0.0594 -0.0262 gdp m2growth gdp m2growth cap 1.0000 -0.6898* 1.0000 inf 1.0000 -0.5316* 0.2683* 55 Picture Test results for multicollinearity vif Variable VIF 1/VIF gdp size cap m2growth inf roa npl ldr 2.59 2.22 2.11 1.98 1.53 1.46 1.15 1.12 0.386281 0.449590 0.474630 0.505773 0.651474 0.686434 0.870356 0.889828 Mean VIF 1.77 Picture Pooled OLS output with Deposit growth reg dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth Source SS df MS Model Residual 678021516 4.6630004 189 084752689 02467196 Total 5.34102191 197 027111786 dg Coef roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth _cons 4.708379 -1.621776 -.0554396 9003615 -.0296186 1.483797 -1.531031 -.300227 1.436893 Std Err 1.955797 4347463 014638 7903716 078987 7363169 1.45195 3442533 3387597 t 2.41 -3.73 -3.79 1.14 -0.37 2.02 -1.05 -0.87 4.24 Number of obs F(8, 189) Prob > F R-squared Adj R-squared Root MSE P>|t| 0.017 0.000 0.000 0.256 0.708 0.045 0.293 0.384 0.000 = = = = = = 198 3.44 0.0010 0.1269 0.0900 15707 [95% Conf Interval] 8503823 -2.479354 -.0843144 -.6587217 -.1854281 0313418 -4.395142 -.9792995 7686574 8.566375 -.7641974 -.0265648 2.459445 1261909 2.936252 1.333079 3788454 2.105129 56 Picture FEM output with ROE xtreg dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth, fe Fixed-effects (within) regression Group variable: bank1 Number of obs Number of groups = = 198 22 R-sq: within = 0.1768 between = 0.0164 overall = 0.0460 Obs per group: = avg = max = 9.0 corr(u_i, Xb) F(8,168) Prob > F = -0.7262 Std Err t dg Coef roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth _cons 4.377513 -1.058733 -.1408263 9420002 -.0644687 7064928 -2.157135 -.2814461 3.081866 2.44539 5957989 0375389 8293119 1003338 6882199 1.31235 3050086 7370928 sigma_u sigma_e rho 14436998 13873295 51990368 (fraction of variance due to u_i) 1.79 -1.78 -3.75 1.14 -0.64 1.03 -1.64 -0.92 4.18 P>|t| = = 0.075 0.077 0.000 0.258 0.521 0.306 0.102 0.357 0.000 4.51 0.0001 [95% Conf Interval] -.4501394 -2.234951 -.2149349 -.695215 -.2625462 -.6521806 -4.747956 -.8835896 1.626708 F test that all u_i=0: F(21, 168) = 3.54 9.205165 1174843 -.0667176 2.579215 1336087 2.065166 4336866 3206974 4.537023 Prob > F = 0.0000 Picture REM output with ROE xtreg dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth, re Random-effects GLS regression Group variable: bank1 Number of obs Number of groups = = 198 22 R-sq: within = 0.1216 between = 0.1082 overall = 0.1121 Obs per group: = avg = max = 9.0 corr(u_i, X) Wald chi2(8) Prob > chi2 = (assumed) dg Coef Std Err z roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth _cons 3.930051 -1.204107 -.0565933 1.127771 -.0838305 1.352605 -1.570957 -.3028722 1.478823 2.109623 4827487 0183855 7986813 0851552 6915473 1.355465 3203718 3987029 sigma_u sigma_e rho 05178327 13873295 12228499 (fraction of variance due to u_i) 1.86 -2.49 -3.08 1.41 -0.98 1.96 -1.16 -0.95 3.71 P>|z| 0.062 0.013 0.002 0.158 0.325 0.050 0.246 0.344 0.000 = = 24.71 0.0017 [95% Conf Interval] -.2047351 -2.150277 -.0926282 -.4376159 -.2507315 -.0028024 -4.227619 -.9307893 6973797 8.064837 -.257937 -.0205585 2.693157 0830705 2.708013 1.085705 3250449 2.260266 57 Picture Hausman test with ROE hausman fe re Coefficients (b) (B) fe re roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth 4.377513 -1.058733 -.1408263 9420002 -.0644687 7064928 -2.157135 -.2814461 (b-B) Difference 3.930051 -1.204107 -.0565933 1.127771 -.0838305 1.352605 -1.570957 -.3028722 sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B)) S.E .4474617 145374 -.0842329 -.1857705 0193618 -.6461126 -.5861777 0214261 1.236697 3491848 0327283 2233076 053061 b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from xtreg B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from xtreg Test: Ho: difference in coefficients not systematic chi2(8) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B) = 43.83 Prob>chi2 = 0.0000 (V_b-V_B is not positive definite) Picture Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian test with ROE xttest0 Breusch and Pagan Lagrangian multiplier test for random effects dg[bank1,t] = Xb + u[bank1] + e[bank1,t] Estimated results: Var dg e u Test: sd = sqrt(Var) 0271118 0192468 0026815 1646566 138733 0517833 Var(u) = chibar2(01) = Prob > chibar2 = 12.40 0.0002 Picture Heteroskedasticity diagnostics with Deposit growth xttest3 Modified Wald test for groupwise heteroskedasticity in fixed effect regression model H0: sigma(i)^2 = sigma^2 for all i chi2 (22) = Prob>chi2 = 2264.49 0.0000 58 Picture 10 Autocorrelation diagnostics with Deposit growth xtserial dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth Wooldridge test for autocorrelation in panel data H0: no first order autocorrelation F( 1, 21) = 18.477 Prob > F = 0.0003 Picture 11 FGLS output with Deposit growth xtgls dg roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth, panels(h) corr(ar1) Cross-sectional time-series FGLS regression Coefficients: Panels: Correlation: generalized least squares heteroskedastic common AR(1) coefficient for all panels Estimated covariances = Estimated autocorrelations = Estimated coefficients = dg Coef roa cap size npl ldr inf gdp m2growth _cons 4.550604 -1.488126 -.0417532 8642685 -.0427151 6832829 -2.069288 -.5945824 1.285537 22 Std Err 1.703455 3731378 012115 5465182 0696779 5044503 895834 2075748 2671116 (0.2533) Number of obs Number of groups Time periods Wald chi2(8) Prob > chi2 z 2.67 -3.99 -3.45 1.58 -0.61 1.35 -2.31 -2.86 4.81 P>|z| 0.008 0.000 0.001 0.114 0.540 0.176 0.021 0.004 0.000 = = = = = 198 22 35.65 0.0000 [95% Conf Interval] 1.211894 -2.219462 -.0654981 -.2068876 -.1792814 -.3054216 -3.825091 -1.001422 7620078 7.889315 -.7567892 -.0180083 1.935425 0938511 1.671987 -.3134862 -.1877433 1.809066 ... controlling the factors affecting it Stemming from that practical need, the author chose the topic "Factors affecting deposits of Vietnamese commercial banks from 2012 to 2020" as a research topic 1.2... to determine the factors affecting deposit growth of commercial banks in Vietnam The paper uses 198 observations of 22 Vietnamese commercial banks from 2012 to 2020, with dependent variable Deposit. .. Student: BUI NHU Y Student ID: 050606180469 Grade: HQ6-GE12 FACTORS AFFECTING VIETNAMESE COMMERCIAL BANKS’ DEPOSIT GROWTH FROM 2012 TO 2020 GRADUATION THESIS Major: Finance – Banking Code: 34 02