Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 972 – 979 15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Prerequisite for Sustainable Development” Risk management the national agricultural policy in the context of the challenges of the global industrial world Dmitry Loginov a,*, Elena Karanina a a Vyatka state University, Moskovskaya st 36, Kirov, 610000, Russia Abstract Agriculture has undergone strong pressure from imported food, which negatively affected the volume of agricultural production The decline in production of agricultural products was more pronounced than the decline in the demand for food Modern the recovery of demand in the consumer market is going more rapidly than the recovery of agricultural production In this regard, it is necessary to improve regional agricultural policy in the direction of establish a balance between the spheres of agroindustrial complex and provision of state support of subjects of food security of the population from the standpoint of competitiveness in the national and international level 2016Published The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd © 2016 © by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Urbanisation as aresponsibility Prerequisiteof fortheSustainable Development Prerequisite for Sustainable Development Keywords: Economic security, Food security, Supply and demand, Threats and factors of economic security Introduction It is no secret that agriculture is among the most economically vulnerable sectors of the economy Indeed, it is difficult to find another sector of the national economy, which suffered so much during the economic transformations of modern Russian history Moreover, the results of such negative changes are quite obvious, spreading not only on purely economic indicators, but also having social consequences, manifested in the decline in * Corresponding author E-mail address: doctorloginov@mail.ru 1877-7058 © 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of the 15th International scientific conference “Underground Urbanisation as a Prerequisite for Sustainable Development doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2016.11.808 Dmitry Loginov and Elena Karanina / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 972 – 979 the well-being of the rural population, degradation of social infrastructure in rural areas, the decline in the prestige rural lifestyle The economic vulnerability of agriculture, or, in other words, the vulnerability of this sector from the impact of economic factors (mainly macroeconomic) risk for a variety of reasons, the main ones are the special situation of the industry in a number of other sectors of the economy that imposes greater dependence on the enterprises receiving agricultural raw materials for processing, lack of political security of the industry, significant dependence of agricultural production on the human factor Turmoil that befell agriculture in the last 25 years, forced to think about what steps can be taken to prevent possible negative events in the future After all, historical experience suggests that the decline of the agricultural sector inevitably provokes reduction in the production of many related associated sectors of the economy, leading to negative consequences on a broad macroeconomic level Of course, the region is one of the main interested parties to ensure the economic security of agriculture After all, at the level of the region starkly revealed such negative effects of a downturn in the agricultural sector increased labour migration to cities, reduction of food security of the urban population, complex (multiplicative) reduction in gross regional product Materials and methods The relevance of this study due to the fact that to date society, regional political and business elites there is a request for measures to prevent sharp fluctuations in agricultural output, as well as the realization that stability of the agricultural sector at the regional level can and should be provided with comprehensive measures of the formation factors of economic security It is economic security, monitoring, identification of key factors and the subsequent system management is able to provide any sector of the economy, including agriculture, an opportunity to strengthen resilience to adverse external economic factors The study authors resorted to such methods of scientific research, as a monographic survey of the recent publications on the topic of the article, historical analysis, evaluation of statistical data characterizing the state of the industry dynamics, logical analysis, quantitative evaluation of key performance indicators, organizational modeling Results Food security is the ability of the system of production, storage, processing, wholesale and retail trade in food products to provide them consistently and evenly during the year, all categories of the population of the territories concerned of the amount of consumption that meets the scientifically based medical standards (Kostyaev & Timofeev, 2000) As you can see, Kostyaev puts the emphasis on the so-called collective responsibility of a number of industries for the final result, the providing the population with food When it becomes obvious these "weak" places such wording, as a condition of compliance with food security of the population medical standards Obviously, agriculture is not more than one of the sectors of the economy And in this respect its task is to produce and profitably sell the product at the current price Whether they reached the same reasoned medical food provision of the population – agriculture (as well as others mentioned in the definition of the sectors of the economy) are not able to influence it It would be correct to address a similar problem to the state as the guarantor of social standards, including health available to the public reasonable quantity of food Secondly, speaking about the provision of all categories, once again, has to appeal to certain social forces, to the system of public administration as carriers of providing food benefits to all, including the most vulnerable sectors of society The fact remains that agriculture can not take the custody of people living below the poverty line After all, most agriculture is no guarantee of protection, when its representatives will sell products at a loss Different looks at the phenomenon of food security Kostjucenko, offering to see her and meet the needs of the population in accordance with the existing effective demand (Kostjucenko, 2009) As you can see, the author acknowledges the fact that the demand, no matter what level he attained, limits the ability of agriculture to produce products However, the tenor of the reasoning of the discussed phenomenon: the conditions and mechanism of food security needs to be created from the outside, and that means government It does not specify a key industry of food security – agriculture Can be assumed and a different industry, supplying the population with food trade As the experience of recent history, trade copes with the food security of the population Another thing the goods of origin, domestic or imported, regional production or imported from the interregional market This fact calls into question 973 974 Dmitry Loginov and Elena Karanina / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 972 – 979 the existence of the problem of food security, especially for the urban population It is important to consider that the chain of food supply, being built in the direction from the counter store can end not only at the entrance to the courtyard of the commercial enterprise Urban buyers may not be aware of the existence of the problem of food security, contemplating on the shelves of many domestic food brands are trademarks of the Russian food industry It can create the illusion of a lack of food security issues if we assume that all products issued by Russian enterprises of food industry produced from domestic agricultural raw materials Unfortunately, it's not a fact that emphasizes the need to find reliable ways of ensuring food security The author of the present study, this prerequisite is seen in the economic security of agriculture A detailed analysis of the concept of food security presented Gumerov From his point of view, food security is achieved when several conditions: x physical availability of food – the ability of organizations of the agroindustrial complex to manufacture, import and deliver the food to the consumer in amounts corresponding to the rational needs of all segments of the population; x economic accessibility – the equality of social strata in the ability to rationally consume a reasonable amount of food; x the reliability of food security – the guarantee of food security of the population regardless of changes in weather conditions; x the sustainability of food systems – the ability of economic entities involved in the provision of food, to operate in the mode of expanded reproduction (Gumerov, 2003) As characteristics of the state of food security in the region Czekalinski considering the security of the average resident of the region with basic foodstuffs, the prevalence of forms of food retail in the region, solvency of the population in the food market, material and financial situation of agricultural producers and the food industry As can be seen in this set of heterogeneous characteristics faced two problems: on the one hand, low food demand of the population, with another – the poor economic situation of food producers due to low investment attractiveness of agriculture and food industry (Czekalinski, 2012, 2013) Kutsenko says that economic security is directly determined by the share of imports in domestic consumption The size of imports according to S Yu Kutsenko depends on the state of agriculture of a particular region Thus, from the above statements it follows that the competitiveness of the agricultural area affects the ability to produce a certain amount of food and, consequently, to occupy a certain place in the regional food market In other words, the measure of displacement of imported food local, regional producers is determined by the degree of competitiveness of regional agriculture Interestingly, analyzing the food security status of the Republic of Khakassia, S Yu Kutsenko acknowledges the potential for increasing food production from both agricultural producers and the food industry, thus emphasizing the existence of excess amount of import at the regional food market But at the same time, speaking about the role of the state, the author equally distributes the potential contribution to the achievement of food security in the region between the macroeconomic regulation of food imports (that is, state protectionism) and the development of competitive positions of regional food producers In fact, you can agree that providing food security, the need to act comprehensively in several directions: to restrain imports to a reasonable level at the macroeconomic level; to provide an acceptable level of solvent demand in the food market; to promote the growth of food supply by implementing a program of development of agricultural production and industrial processing of agricultural products.food In fact, you can agree that providing food security, the need to act comprehensively in several directions: to restrain imports to a reasonable level at the macroeconomic level; to provide an acceptable level of solvent demand in the food market; promote growth of the food supply by implementing a program of development of agricultural production and industrial processing of agricultural products (Kutsenko, 2015) Makhanko, the activities of agricultural producers under a regime of expanded reproduction in dependence on the state of investment attractiveness of the agrarian sector of the region The author stresses that the public authorities in the region should take effective decisions regarding the increase of efficiency of agricultural producers, to organize and implement such measures of state support that is capable of leading enterprises of agriculture and food industry to a qualitatively better level of competitiveness We agree with this position and, moreover, believe that the role of public authorities the specific subject of the Russian Federation in maintenance of a mode of expanded reproduction of agricultural producers should be leading As this contribution should be at least noticeable in Dmitry Loginov and Elena Karanina / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 972 – 979 achieving and maintaining a healthy and effective balance between the main elements of the regional agro-industrial complex None other than regional public authority, is obliged to establish the most advantageous for companies parity between agriculture, food industry and retail trade, fully aware that the economic status of each of these elements of the agro-industrial complex impacts on food security of the region as a whole (Makhanko, 2016) Voronova considers food security as a condition for sustainable social climate in society and a crucial element of national security (Voronova, 2012) Veklenko and Zolotarev (Veklenko & Zolotarev, 2015) food security in the region directly linked to the competitiveness of the agricultural sector, offering specific recipes to ensure the competitiveness of regional agroindustrial complex, involving the intensification, diversification and optimization of the structure of agricultural production in the region, as well as improving product quality and development of cooperation and integration Overall, these authors advocate for a reasonable balance between agricultural protectionism provided by government at Federal and regional level, on the one hand and cooperation under the regional agricultural policy the development of competition within and among various levels of agriculture Kazakova, Mineeva and Pshentsova argue that the state of food security Russia can reach in about 10-15 years (Kazakova, Mineeva & Sentsova 2015) However, this result is the authors dependent on full implementation of measures of state support of development of agriculture, including ensuring a reasonable pace of technical modernization, Informatization and development of rural areas The author of this article believes that this point of view we can agree only if we recognize that, in parallel with an active, justified and appropriate state support of agriculture at the state level will take sufficient measures to overcome the contradictions between the spheres of the agroindustrial complex, to overcome the monopsony of the food industry towards the agricultural producers and monopsony enterprises of food retail in relation to domestic food producers Otherwise there is a risk that conservation of the current "balance of power" between the spheres of agro-industrial complex, provoking at least inhibiting the development of agriculture, and as a high aggravation of contradictions between the spheres of agriculture and further degradation of agriculture in the most economically disadvantaged regions Krylatykh believes that in terms of food security must be guaranteed, including a consistent supply of food to the requirements of technical regulations (Krylatykh, 2013) According to Ushachev, the problem of import substitution, is closely related to food security, requires the use of all existing potential of the country (Ushachev, 2016) In addition, in the world of science is a widespread point of view according to which food security is considered from the standpoint of population health (Friel & Ford, 2015), protection and development of natural, in particular of the soil, the capacity of the national agriculture (Rickson, Deeks, Graves, Harris, Kibblewhite & Sakrabani 2015) and further intensification of agricultural production (Chartres & Noble, 2015) There is a very unexpected point of view, according to which we should warn from the excessive build-up of food in their territory, due to the fact that it could trigger environmental problems, violation of agricultural lands that is in conflict with other important sectors of society (Brunstad, Gaasland & Vеrdal, 2005) However, in the world scientific literature, common point of view about the need to make food security a more serious matter, and highlights such aspects of the universal values of effective food security as the ability of agriculture as a sector of the economy and modern industry to withstand natural disasters (de Haen, 2008) and to ensure the availability of food to all social strata (Falcon & Naylor, 2005; LeBlanc, Kuhn & Blaylock, 2005) Discussion Throughout the period since 1991, the production of agricultural products in the analyzed region was characterized by negative trend The majority of the years ended reduction in the volume of agricultural output to the level of previous year in comparable valuation (Fig.1) 975 976 Dmitry Loginov and Elena Karanina / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 972 – 979 115, 112,1 111,2 111,0 % to the previous year (in comparable prices) 110, 109,6 105, 103,1 100,4 100, 98,7 97,5 97,4 97,1 101,0 97,2 95, 94,6 92,3 89,8 93,7 91,2 90,7 90, 94,8 92,5 92,3 88,8 88,1 87,4 85, 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 years Fig Index of production of agriculture of the Kirov region The information presented is of great interest from the standpoint of summing up the total change in annual volume of agricultural output over a long retrospective period In this respect, the author of the article presented by the national statistics index of production of agricultural products multiplied together among themselves, which allowed to identify the picture of production agriculture over the last analyzed period (year 2014) relative to the base period (1991) The assessment is conducted in the context of agricultural production and farm categories (table.1) The analysis presented clearly shows that the products of agriculture of the Kirov region has decreased over the years 1991-2014, that is 22 more than twice – to 52.83 percent The reduction affected both the production of crops – in the hurdle of 48.70 percent, and livestock – to 54.05 percent Not to say that such a deep recession was caused by the reduction of production in the agricultural organizations – in fact, agribusiness, or in households, i.e agricultural production of the rural population for their own consumption, as the production in the organized sector declined by 49.18%, in the sector of private households – 52.41% Thus, there is a systematic decline in agriculture in the region Table The index of production of agricultural products for the period 1991-2014 (%) Category household products 2014 in % to 1991 All categories of farms and types of production 47.17 Of all the categories of farms: crop production 51.30 livestock products 45.95 Of all types of products: products agricultural organizations 50.82 the products of the farms 47.59 977 Dmitry Loginov and Elena Karanina / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 972 – 979 Such an outcome could easily be described as the manifestation of a negative factor in the economic security of agriculture of the Kirov region, which is the agricultural sector in the study region to withstand could not It is obvious that under this factor it is impossible to consider the effect of any natural cause, as the climate in Kirov region during the study time has not undergone any significant changes The factors associated with human activities, public relations, or rather the establishment of new economic conditions for the implementation of agricultural activities in which not all manufacturers are able to produce products profitably and is generally regarded as the continuation of agricultural production appropriate The negative factor of economic security in a comparable impact equally on crop and livestock production in Kirov region Such conjugation may be due in part to the fact that the bulk of the products for sale are produced in agricultural organizations of the Kirov region in the field of animal husbandry The crop mainly serves livestock production, producing feed for farm animals Picture of the distress of the agricultural sector is even more obvious when considering physical indicators One of the main types of products of agriculture of the Kirov region is cattle Figure shows how over the period 19902014 years, the volume of production of cattle for slaughter in slaughter weight in all categories of farms of the Kirov region was reduced from 77.5 to 22.8 thousand tons, or 3.4 times The most important feature of the development of agriculture in the study region was the fact that agricultural production has lagged significantly behind demand for the respective types of food As can be seen from table 2, the resources of meat (including offal) and meat products (slaughter weight) for 2009-2014 has increased from 101.7 to 116.6 thousand tons, or 14.6 percent The indicator of resources in the region is calculated by the state statistical bodies as the sum of production and importation into the territory of the region (including imports) Thus, the indicator characterizes the resource demand in the considered type of product In accordance with the data of table 2, the demand for meat and meat products in the Kirov region grew by 14.6 percent in 2009, while meat production fell by 8.1% There is an obvious inability of regional meat producers to benefit from growing demand In other words, the observed pattern is a consequence of the loss of regional meat producers in terms of competitiveness Thus, meat production in the Kirov region is not able to withstand the threats and challenges of economic security 90, 77,5 80, 75,6 73,0 71,4 70,5 70, thousand tons 60, 58,3 55,5 52,7 53,1 50, 44,6 40, 45,2 44,7 44,1 43,5 40,3 36,0 30, 35,2 32,4 29,1 27,7 20, 25,0 23,5 23,7 24,4 22,8 10, 0, 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 years Fig The production of cattle in all categories of farms of the Kirov region 978 Dmitry Loginov and Elena Karanina / Procedia Engineering 165 (2016) 972 – 979 Table Resources of meat (including offal) and meat products (slaughter weight) in comparison with the production of livestock and poultry in all categories of farms of Kirov region, thousand tonnes 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2014 in % to 2009 Resources 101.7 104.7 106.1 107.4 112.3 116.6 114.6 Production 59.3 59.2 55.4 54.9 54.5 54.5 91.9 The import of meat (including offal) and meat products (slaughter weight) on the territory of the Kirov region in the studied period increased from 38.2 thousand tonnes in 2009 to 68.0 thousand tonnes in 2014, or 1.8 times As a result, the production of meat in the region and importation into the territory of the region is almost equal Conclusion Thus, summing up the present study, it should be noted that the economic security of agriculture is closely linked to food security The main threats to economic security of agriculture are such as: freedom of movement of goods across the country; competition from foreign suppliers of agricultural raw materials (particularly – transportable raw materials); competition from the food industry that are leaders by price and non-price competition in the Russian market Accordingly, as factors of economic security of agriculture should be noted: orientation on interregional and international competition, the ability to withstand the price and non-price pressure from the imported food; assistance from the state in overcoming the most dangerous factors of competition from imported food, leaving no chance to save this or that branch of agriculture through the development of primarily non-tariff regulatory instruments of foreign trade, particularly food imports; the tightening of requirements of technical regulations for food in part of withdrawal of the available number of ingredients of food products, the resources of which are formed in the market mainly through imports; the policy of state support of agricultural producers from the standpoint of the criterion of competitiveness – support should go mainly companies implementing investment projects aimed at increasing competitiveness; the establishment of a reasonable balance between the state support of agricultural producers and enterprises of processing of 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