Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Procedia Computer Science 105 (2017) 165 – 169 2016 IEEE International Symposium on Robotics and Intelligent Sensors, IRIS 2016, 17-20 December 2016, Tokyo, Japan Intelligent Prediction System for Gas Metering System Using Particle Swarm Optimization in Training Neural Network N.S Roslia, R Ibrahimb, I.Ismailc * abc Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS, Bandar Seri Iskandar, 31750 Tronoh, Perak Abstract In this paper, a study on development of prediction model based on an intelligent systems is discussed for gas metering system in order to validate the instrument reliability In providing reliable measurement of gas metering system, an accurate prediction model is required for model validation and parameter estimation The intelligent prediction system has been developed for gas measurement validation Then the project focused on the application of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and Genetic Algorithm (GA) in training neural network prediction model in enhancing the performance of Intelligent Prediction System (IPS) In this study, the three experiment has been conducted to improve the accuracy of the neural network prediction model The comparison of the performance of PSONN and GANN with pure ANN is presented in this paper The results shows that the proposed PSONN model give promising results in the prediction accuracy of gas measurement © 2017 2016 The The Authors Authors Published Published by © by Elsevier Elsevier B.V B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of the 2016 IEEE International Symposium on Robotics and Intelligent Sensors (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review (IRIS 2016).under responsibility of organizing committee of the 2016 IEEE International Symposium on Robotics and Intelligent Sensors(IRIS 2016) Keywords: neural network; particle swarm optimization; genetic algorithm; prediction; gas metering system Introduction The increasing energy demand in nowadays modern innovation become industrial concern towards energy efficiency for energy saving It is a vital for the accuracy and reliable metering system in oil and gas industry to maintain the billing purposes This is because of inaccuracy of product selling to the client will bring about lost income to the organization A slight error in the bill calculation will lead to huge financial impact Between validation periods, the field device might be drifted and flow computer giving unknown readings and other scenarios that might lead to billing issues Measurement readings from billing equipment will sometimes freeze, overshoot and even zero readings Due to reliability concern, smart meters applying artificial intelligence is one of the future technologies that can be genuine global solution1 Therefore, it is an extra effort to develop a monitoring system tool to verify the billing data generated by measuring equipment and subsequently will enhance overall billing integrity To achieve the objective, a prevailing tool that can be used is the hybrid method which neural network are combined with PSO and GA algorithm The hybrid methods are mostly outperformed than non-hybrid methods2 It can predict the performance and accurately forecast the instrument measurement and in addition provide a reliable metering system for billing integrity * Corresponding author Tel.: +0-000-000-0000 ; fax: +0-000-000-0000 E-mail address: author@institute.xxx 1877-0509 © 2017 The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of organizing committee of the 2016 IEEE International Symposium on Robotics and Intelligent Sensors(IRIS 2016) doi:10.1016/j.procs.2017.01.197 166 N.S Rosli et al / Procedia Computer Science 105 (2017) 165 – 169 Nomenclature ANN PSO GA IPS Artificial Neural Network Particle Swarm Optimization Genetic Algorithm Intelligent Prediction System 1.1 Gas Metering System Accurate measurement of gas flow through pipelines is vital to reduce energy loss One of the greatest concerns is whether the amount of money buyer paid is justified with the amount of products sold The metering system required critical examination which result in cost reduction The measurements of gas metering station along the pipeline system are used to compute energy supplied for customer which consists of measuring equipment (e.g pressure and temperature transmitter), turbine meter, flow computer and gas chromatography These measurement will be utilized for energy consumption calculation for billing purposes Fig.1 shows the billing process from supplier to customer Fig Billing process of gas consumption The metering system not have any reference system to validate its accurateness which also is defined as standalone system Sometimes, instruments fault may occurred that lead to billing issue Prediction and analysis on what will happen plays important role in economic operation Thus, accurate and robust prediction model can significantly improve the billing results Reliable billing verification tool also plays a significant role to increase work efficiency of billing-correction To manage this world issue, the human and computational intelligence must be developed for achieving high accuracy of prediction model of process parameter prediction 1.2 Intelligent Prediction System The implementation of the intelligent system varies in prediction, classification, clustering and pattern recognition3 A data driven technique based on historical data can be used to design reliable prediction model For example, nonlinear estimation of wind power optimization is done by ANN4 It used global optimization based on ANN Therefore, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method is proposed to be the intelligent prediction model to learn the behavior of fault and providing reliable data for billing purposes There are several factors that affect the model development: model inputs; data pre-processing; learning algorithm and activation function5 Selection of ANN architecture also describes the model performance in view of its robustness and reliability of the system The most popular training algorithm in prediction application is backpropagation method (BP) The examples of BP algorithm are gradient descent, Lavenberg-Marquardt, Lavenberg-Marquardt with Bayesian regulation6 In this paper proposed the optimization method to be applied in training ANN to have better prediction value The approaches of hybrid intelligence is used to predict more accurate and reliable energy7 Therefore, PSO and GA is introduced in optimizing the weights and biases from ANN training 1.3 Particle Swarm Optimization PSO was first established by Kennedy and Eberhart as a solution to the complex non-linear optimization problem by imitating the behavior of bird flocks in the concept of function-optimization by means of a particle swarm8 PSO is also well-known as population-based search method based on the behavior of elements in nature such as fish schooling and birds flocking The population follows its leader which affected by the best-positon of each particle in the whole swarm This phenomenon is called the global best PSO (or gbest PSO)9 Every individual will adjust its position according its own best position which follows toward group’s objective The particle is called as personal best (or pbest PSO) A local best PSO (or lbest PSO) occurred when the pbest corresponds to the position in neighbour’s experience Lastly, all the particles will finally move toward the desired location To achieve this condition, the velocity of the particle is updated as in equation (1) where the particles move to a new position close to 167 N.S Rosli et al / Procedia Computer Science 105 (2017) 165 – 169 the object from initialization through time t the new position of the ith particle in a d-dimensional search space is represented by xi = (xi1, xi2, …, xid) and determined by its velocity, vi as in equation (2) ݒௗሺ௧ାଵሻ ൌ ݒݓௗሺ௧ሻ ܿଵ ݎଵ ሺௗ ݔௗሺ௧ሻ ሻ ܿଶ ݎଶ ሺௗ ݔௗሺ௧ሻ ሻ ݔௗሺ௧ାଵሻ ൌ ݔௗሺ௧ሻ ݒௗሺ௧ାଵሻ ݐ (1) (2) Moreover, PSO is also effected by weight, velocity constriction and clamping The inertia weight is introduced to reduce the whole position10 Based on the research on the inertia weight range, [0.5, 0.9] values reduce the amplitude of trajectories thus allowing exploration to convergence triangle11 The pbest term is known cognitive component which the particles learn from its previous performance This element looks like an individual learning of its best particle position12 A larger size of swarm need to be covered per iteration when larger parts of the search space In contrary, when the number of particles increase, the calculation complexity of each loop is increase hence more time-consuming6,13,14 The acceleration coefficients C1 and C2 were performed to analyse the particles in the swarm It represents the weight of the stochastic that attract the particles pbest and gbest 16 PSO algorithm can optimized all parameters include the weights to perform better fine-tuning process15,17 1.4 Genetic Algorithm John Holland introduced Genetic Algorithm (GA) by probabilistic optimization technique The first thought originated from biological development process in chromosomes The best arrangements of GA are recombined with each other to shape new structured for the survival of the fittest GA techniques usually involved of coding the problems, generating initial population, evaluating fitness, crossover, mutation and selection18 The population is a group of individual number which encoded in bit string of fixed length Every individual interact with the other chromosome of a living thing There is a fitness function that evaluate the desired requirements of every chromosome from the population Combining of selected individuals during crossover will create more individuals which inherit the best traits while the two chromosomes are consolidated in mutation process will make a new individuals The process is repeated until the termination condition is met Methodology 2.1 Development of IPS Framework Based on the research application in flow measurement19,20,21, it depicts that neural networks is one of reliable way to improve energy efficiency Fig shows the framework of proposed prediction model in order to get the best performance of IPS NN optimized by PSO NN optimized by GA Determine NN structure Determine NN structure Determine NN and PSO parameter Initialize NN and GA parameter Start training Start GA model Adjust weight according gbest particle Training new parameters by NN output Performance analysis and comparison Implementation of IPS Fig Intelligent Prediction System (PPS) Development 2.2 Development of ANN Architecture In order to obtain the optimum parameter for neural network model, the architecture of ANN prediction model is required to be investigated Neural network needs to be trained based on good historical data from the well-functioned instrument The total data available is 4560 used for training the ANN model In this investigation, the best combination of these parameters are selected based on the least root means square error (RMSE) From the investigation, ANN model was trained by the Lavenberg-Marquardt algorithm as the best parameter of the neural network model that gives the more promising result as compared to other learning algorithms The optimal number of neurons is 10 with layers of hidden layers These parameters are well investigated before proceeding with the PSO and GA program 168 N.S Rosli et al / Procedia Computer Science 105 (2017) 165 – 169 2.3 Parameter of particle swarm optimization Proposed prediction model based on PSO algorithm is implemented to have better prediction result To define the best model, PSO parameters such as swarm size and the coefficient of velocity equation are investigated Then the value of particle’s position and velocity are updated based on the best fitness values The fitness evaluation is calculated based on mean square error (MSE) in equation (3) ଵ ܧܵܯൌ σୀଵሺݕ െ ݕ ሻଶ (3) The searching process is continued until the stopping criteria is met in order to gain the best position of pbest and gbest The accuracy and robustness of IPS model are analyzed and tested based on predicted value provide by the network In summarize, the parameters that have been finalized for PSONN are shown in Table Table Parameters of PSONN Parameter Value Acceleration Coefficients (C1 and C2) 2.0 Swarm Size 100 Weights range [0.6 0.9] Initial weight, position and velocity Random Maximum Iterations 100 2.4 Parameter of genetic algorithm GA is typically connected in ANN to advance the system due to its effectiveness in providing the best parameters, for example, learning process maintain a strategic distance from being caught in a local minima and speed up the convergence rate Besides that, GA has been utilized to create the best NN weight optimization and design The generation is prepared for evaluation and the procedure proceeds until the best performance is achieved GA is ended up being successful to direct the ANN adapting, thus, it is generally utilized as a part of numerous applications Subsequently, PSO performance and outcome are defined to be compared with GANN Table demonstrates the optimal value of GA parameters that have been investigated in order to provide the best result in NN learning Table Parameters of GANN Parameter Value Population size 50 No of generations 20 Crossover rate 0.6 Mutation rate 0.033 Reproduction rate 0.6 Maximum population 100 Results and Discussion The prediction performance of ANN, PSO-based ANN and GA-based ANN models were examined for comparison purposes The result for training and testing the prediction model shows in the Table The performance of PSO and GA algorithm has been compared with ANN model only The accuracy of the model performance are analysed by the root mean square error (RMSE) and percentage error between predicted and actual value Table 3: Comparison between conventional ANN with PSO-based ANN model Parameter ANN (RMSE) PSONN (RMSE) GANN ANN PSONN GANN (RMSE) (Percentage Error) (Percentage Error) (Percentage Error) Temperature 0.022 0.008 0.0126 0.060 0.0170 0.056 Pressure 13.347 13.723 13.564 0.217 0.206 0.212 Volume 1.651 1.576 1.607 0.334 0.280 0.300 Results in Table shows that PSONN mostly gives better performance compared to ANN and GANN with the least RMSE produced compared to GANN and ANN In PSONN, selection of network parameters for the prediction model give impact to the performance of the system Adjustment of parameter can be done as well as to achieve better enhancement While the weight of GA gives the basic of standard LM learning during the learning rate of GANN This is to ensure faster convergence time and better N.S Rosli et al / Procedia Computer Science 105 (2017) 165 – 169 169 performance results In any case, the selection process of GA parameter takes longer time compared with PSONN Therefore, the best parameters of PSONN will be used to develop the IPS Conclusion In conclusion, PSO and GA are effectively optimized the neural network prediction model They have been tested using data from gas metering system The investigation is done by comparing accuracy result produced by hybrid learning method of PSO and GA with ANN model The most critical knowledge in this study is the proposed PSO is a straightforward optimization technique with less computation that can be implemented in neural network with high accuracy compared to GANN While the implementation of PSO-based ANN model in the metering instrument is applicable for the user to perform the process parameter prediction and calculation using IPS For the future works, IPS can be developed for other application in the industry with the expert integration system Acknowledgements This research is funded and 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Swadhikar C An intelligent prediction system for time series data using periodic pattern mining in temporal databases, in Proceedings of the First International Conference on Intelligent Interactive... 2010 Vilovic I, Burum N, and Milic D Using particle swarm optimization in training neural network for indoor field strength prediction in ELMAR, 2009 ELMAR''09 International Symposium 2009 IEEE Zahraee... IPS Artificial Neural Network Particle Swarm Optimization Genetic Algorithm Intelligent Prediction System 1.1 Gas Metering System Accurate measurement of gas flow through pipelines is vital to