from weak signals to mobility scenarios a prospective study of france in 2050

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 International Scientific Conference on Mobility and Transport Transforming Urban Mobility, mobil.TUM 2016, 6-7 June 2016, Munich, Germany From weak signals to mobility scenarios: A prospective study of France in 2050 Vincent Kaufmann, Emmanuel Ravalet * Laboratory of Urban Sociology, EPFL, batiment BP, Station 16, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland Abstract Prospective analyses, be they in the field of transport or other areas, are generally developed based on a retrospective of the preceding decades The trends highlighted are then followed, changed, brought out, accentuated, etc However, a recent look at mobility behaviors and how they are evolving (for example, the speed with which bicycle use has made a comeback in denselypopulated cities is instructive in this regard), and at recent societal changes (particularly as regards the development of Information and Communication Technology [ICT]) suggests the need for methods that better reflect behavioral changes by being more attentive to weak signals relative to mobility The goal of this article is to offer a prospective view for France in 2050 The analysis was funded by SNCF in preparation for the Paris Climate Conference (COP 21) Our main objective is to demonstrate and discuss an original, 4-step prospective analysis method Phase one - the diagnostic phase - is based on a review of scientific and gray literature from the past five years and a quantitative survey of a representative sample of the population (in France) For this, we surveyed 1800 persons aged 15 and older by telephone In phase two - the staging phase - key changes in mobility behaviors (on which the prospective scenarios were built) are highlighted Phase three explores the various figures Once the main lines of the scenarios have been sketched, the modal shares and associated energy consumption is determined The objective of this prospective work is highly political, given that these figures are intended for use in planning policy that is both realistic (taking into account current infrastructure and service offerings, and their capacity for change) and readable (positioning relative current situations abroad) The fourth and final stages establish a political agenda with concrete actions for the short, medium and long term In this article we describe the first three stages, systematically explaining our choices We take stock of the current situation of human mobility by interpreting the latest trends described in the literature and the results of the quantitative survey We then * Corresponding author E-mail address: emmanuel.ravalet@epfl.ch 2352-1465 © 2016 Published by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of mobil.TUM 2016 doi:10.1016/j.trpro.2016.12.064 Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 describe the three resulting scenarios – ultra-mobility, altermobility and proxy-mobility – explaining in detail the hypotheses upon which we built them, as well as the modal shares, traffic volumes and CO2 emissions associated with them by Elsevier B.V This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2016 2016Published The Authors Published by Elsevier B.V (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of mobil.TUM 2016 Peer-review under responsibility of the organizing committee of mobil.TUM 2016 Keywords: mobility, prospective, scenario, France Introduction When political leaders decide to reduce the CO2 emissions associated with the transport of people, it appears critical to involve the academic world in the process in order to make it intelligible and ensure its success In keeping with this spirit, this article discusses the goal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a quarter through a prospective analysis of human transport In addition to the insight this prospective work offers with regard to the commitments linked to factor for 2050, we would like to discuss the methodological approach used in terms of a prospective epistemology The article discusses mobility, a concept we feel requires major research efforts Mobility is at the heart of social dynamics - be it values, social stratification or spaces Mobility helps lay the ideological and structural foundations of society through the spaces - both geographical and social – it produces and models of social success (Harvey 2001) it establishes It also highlights changes in society by exploring what moves, and how Position in the field of prospective 2.1 Foresight: what approach? Identifying mobility futures, first and foremost, means considering the three ways of overcoming space: being near (proximity), going to and telecommunicating In order to consider these relationships, the metaphor of "hypertext society" so dear to F Ascher (1995) is a good starting point, because the geographical spaces produced by contemporary mobilities have multiple layers that are, at times, superimposed and, at times, organized Until recently, in fact, the relationships between the private, interpersonal and collective levels on one hand, and between proximity, travel and telecommunications on the other, was largely territorialized, like "Russian nesting dolls" In other words, the boundaries between categories were clear and easily identifiable because they were interlocking Daily life occurred at the micro-local level, in one’s neighborhood or village The existence of these interlockings notably had to with the fact that, until the 1920s, travel and communicating with those far away were slow processes (walking, horses, trams in cities) This resulted in daily lives that were highly local; working far from home was impossible given that no modern modes of transport existed The same was true of mail, which was moved only at the speed of the horse carrying it With the development of high-speed transport, its democratization and the development of telecommunications, societies organized locally, based on the logic of Russian nesting dolls, exploded geographically One can now work more than 100 kilometers from home and still sleep in one’s own bed at night It is also possible to maintain social relationships with people on the other side of the planet Clearly, we have overcome distance and are no longer bound by local limits However, with these limits being pushed to their extremes, clashes of scale are becoming the norm How societies occupy space is changing and raising new issues, such as that of social cohesion, social and spatial ties and multiple identities 19 20 Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 2.2 Mobility futures: key words At the European level, the European Commission published a white paper on transport development for 2050 (European Commission, 2011) wherein it sets a target: by 2050, more than 50% of medium- and long-distance trips should be made by public transport ADEME has conducted several prospective studies on changes in mobility The goal of these studies is to consider alternatives to the private car based on a combination of the various transport offers In parallel, the agency counts on an overall decline in the demand for mobility by 2050 We will also use the lifestyles-based approach defended in the work "Visions Energy Climate 2030-2050,”1 which is built based on 16 different lifestyles Consumption trends are calculated in all sectors for each lifestyle The Négawatt association’s prospective study is also a valuable resource (Negawatt, 2014) Among its objectives, it aims to make practices – not resources - the focus of analysis Their approach is similar to ours in this respect, in that we also build our analysis based on the mobility demand rather than the offer Another similarity, in keeping with our approach, is that Négawatt sets forth long-term requirements with short-term choices Based on the findings of the prospective study, Négawatt initially expects an overall drop in the transport demand due to ongoing densification efforts in urban areas and the revitalization of rural areas With regard to modal shares, Négawatt expects a significant drop (62%) in car use This outlook is deemed possible due to a sharp increase in the use of soft modes (cycling and walking) for short trips, and greater use of public transport for longer trips This prospective study is sufficiently detailed for us to compare our findings with theirs, which we will later in the article Regarding other works on energy consumption in 2050 with a transportation component is the work that led to the so-called Negatep scenario (Acket and Bacher, 2014) Based on a certain number of trends, mainly linked to the transport supply, two scenarios were built for 2050: the "business as usual" scenario, wherein energy consumption linked to transport increases by 60% in 2050, and the so-called Negatep scenario, wherein emissions are cut in half In these works, travel and its possible evolution are often discussed without consideration of how residential locations may change in the future, or how the appreciation of modes of transport can play a decisive role in the proposed changes As such, we felt it would be useful to supplement our approach with a review of key literature on major trends in mobility and the weak signals that, at times, emerge relative to the relationship to space and the perception of mobility and transport Taking stock of mobility in France 3.1 Mobility in France: historical perspective and recent changes Based on the scientific literature and findings from several studies we have conducted in recent years (Viry et Kaufmann, 2015; Ravalet et al., 2015; Vincent-Geslin et Kaufmann, 2012), we propose to present three new phenomena Though there are many changes with regard to mobility – such as the aging of the population and the impoverishing of lower-middle class people, who are less and less able to afford a car – we would like to focus on three that relate to motility and are true indicators of profound social and societal change The first concerns the changing role of the car, the second polytopic habitats, and the third travel time x The place of the car in daily life in France Since the 1980s, research on daily mobility shows that creating a modal shift has been the main objective of transport policy in many large and medium-sized European cities and regions (CEMT, 1996) “Modal shift” is the idea that it is possible to incite driver to use other modes of transport by making them more attractive www.ademe.fr Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 In the 1960s and 1970s, an image of the transport system - widely shared by the population, policy makers and experts alike - was built around the paradigm of technical progress (Dollinger, 1972; Fichelet, 1979) In this context, the individual car was considered “progress” relative to public transport, as it freed users from the constraints of specific routes and schedules, and allowed for independent travel in the comfort of a private space The idea that the car represented true progress was largely agreed upon, including by left-wing political parties (Maksim, 2011) However, with growing awareness of the pollution linked to car traffic, this dominant image began to fragment, giving way to different views In the 1980s, the modal shift from the individual car to modes with less negative externalities was a controversial topic in urban transport policies throughout Europe (Banister, 2005; Flamm, 2004), and was supported by emerging social, environmental and anti-consumerism movements Through this changing view of urban mobility, creating a modal shift gradually became the key objective of urban transport policies throughout Europe (Kaufmann, 2003) These policies resulted from the desire to address the consequences of car use in dense urban areas, and namely the congestion of public spaces and environmental impact of car traffic (Lefèvre and Offner, 1990) The initial strategy of the modal shift in the 1980s and 1990s was to develop alternatives that were efficient in terms of speed This was the idea behind the concept of modal choice Users choose their transport mode(s) by comparing travel times and costs, and opt for the most advantageous solution (Dupuy, 1975; Goodwin, 1985; Brög, 1993) This led to the creation of many tram networks, light rail, tram-train, automatic subways small and large, S-Bahn and other regional trains, whose efficiency was intended to vy with that of the car (Metz, 2008) In most cases, however, these projects failed to reduce car use in in urban areas, and in all cases, an increase in the use of public transport was seen, with a 20% to 50% increase years after their implementation (Gagnière, 2012) Yet, car traffic changed only marginally Notably the new trams, subways and S-Bahn gave rise to new trips and incited former pedestrians to use public transport As a result, such modal shift policies were deemed incoherent Rather, a modal shift necessitated an approach that combined public transport, walking and cycling (Canzler and Knie, 1998) The planning of the public space thus became a key aspect of these policies (Apel and Pharoah, 1995) It was at this time that coordination strategies between transport and development policies came into fashion: It was necessary link urban development and walkable scales close to public transport hubs and stations (Gallez and Kaufmann, 2010) Until the mid-2000s, these policies did not considerably impact car use, though exceptions existed Car use was associated with lifestyles whose pace and spatialities often made it difficult to change modal habits (Buhler, 2012) Research shows the latter develop during specific life stages and correspond to periods of transition in the life course (Flamm, 2004; Fouillé, 2010) 2005 marked a turning point: Car use in daily urban mobility actually began to decline in many urban agglomerations Initially thought to be a cyclical effect due to a hike in oil prices, this trend that began slowly gradually became widespread in northern and southern Europe, as demonstrated in Anne Aguilera’s recent analyses (2014)2 Yet, this downward trend in car use can only be observed in the densest urban areas This explains households’ tendency to give up the car or multiple forms of motorized transport However, this does not explain everything Certain facts surrounding this are troubling: for instance, the decline is widespread and affects both cities with and without ambitious transport policies This is the case in France, for example, where the decrease in the car market share for urban travel is as marked in Strasbourg and Bordeaux (cities with strong transport development policies – as in cities like Toulon, where no such development has occurred (De Solère, 2012; CERTU, 2013) Many surveys show that young people no longer “dream” of having a car like they once did Automakers like Toyota and PSA are closely analyzing this phenomenon, reflected not only in the use of transport modes but also in car ownership and the obtaining of driver’s licenses This is the result of several phenomena (Kuhnimhof et al 2012, Newman and Kenworthy 2013) The first is disenchantment with the car due to its environmental impact and The decrease in car use is measurable by the proportion of trips This does not mean that car traffic is decreasing, however as car trips tend to be longer 21 22 Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 competition by telecommunication systems as an expression of freedom for young people The second is the emergence of urban lifestyles based on proximity and frequent Internet use This is reflected in particular by a change in pace (e.g shopping done daily rather than on a weekly basis, with certain purchases made online or via delivery The economic aspect should not be underestimated here Money spent on telephones, computers, tablets, online games and apps means less for driving lessons - which are increasingly costly in many European countries - nevermind a car In other words, in the economic tradeoffs young urban households must make, cars tends to take a backseat Fig Change in the car modal share in certain French urban conglomerations (in percentage of trips) - Source: De Solère, 2012 x Polytopic living and intensive mobility Over the past 20 years in Europe, we have witnessed the development of new forms of travel, often referred to as high mobility (Meissonier, 2001; Hofmeister, 2005; Kellerman, 2012; Guerardi, 2010) This includes having two or more residences following a divorce (joint custody of children), by choice (for the dynamics of the couple – “living apart together”), when couples live far apart (in distance or time), for work-related reasons (a pied-a-terre near the workplace when the main residence is several hundred miles away), or for leisure-related reasons, (e.g second homes where individuals spend part of the week or year) (Feldhaus and Schlegel, 2015; Duncan and Phillips, 2010) It also includes long-distance and long-distance commuting, which has resulted in a growing number of people commuting hundreds of miles each day or spending considerable time getting to and from work (Schneider and Collet, 2010), and people who frequently spend the night away from home (overnighting), be it for work, leisure or family reasons (Holmes, 2014) Put together, these forms of travel - marginal just a few years ago – have become a social phenomenon that is impossible to ignore For work-related reasons alone this phenomenon now affects 13% to 16% of working people Half the population will be faced with it at some point in their career (Schneider and Collet, 2010) These practices are also the result of changes in our daily lives In general, our activities are much faster-paced Moreover, private and professional spheres have become blurred: we work from home, check our email in the evening, receive personal calls at the office and are in permanent contact with our partners via text messaging (BeltonChevallier, 2010) What links these different lifestyles is the fact that they point to polytopic habitats (Stock 2006) The daily lives of people in such contexts tend to be scattered over a vast geographical space This results in multiple loyalties and ties Car use is generally low among people who live in or frequent such polytopic habitats, especially when they must commute between cities x Zahavi 2.0, or the increase in daily travel time budgets In the 1970s, Yacov Zahavi, a researcher at the World Bank, demonstrated a constancy of travel time budgets in cities around the world He formulated what is called the “Zahavi Conjecture,” namely the fact that daily mobility is Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 a function of transport speed for a time budget of approximately one hour (Zahavi, 1979) Zahavi’s work highlights a key mechanism of urban development: the time saved thanks to the speed of the transport mode is used to travel further, not to limit or reduce the time spent traveling (Zahavi and Talvitie, 1980) This mechanism is particularly useful for modeling urban sprawl Zahavi’s work had an important impact on operational planning Since the 1990s, travel time budgets have been increasing throughout Europe In Switzerland, for instance, 10% of the working population works more than 50 km from their main residence This trend is developing rapidly due to train travel: the further away from home people work, the more likely they are to take the train While a portion of this increase is due to the saturation of infrastructures, it above all reflects the changing relationship to travel time In the past five years, time budgets have restabilized at around 1.5 hours Hence, we have gone from Zahavi 1.0, with a 1-hour travel time budget, to Zahavi 2.0, with a 1.5-hour travel time budget What happened? Careful analysis shows that the dispersion of time budgets has become more pronounced It also shows that train users and walkers have the longest travel time budgets This is due in particular to the fact that one can now use this time constructively (Lyons et al., 2007; Jain and Lyons, 2008; Viry and Kaufmann, 2015) With smartphones, tablets and laptops, travel time is no longer wasted time between activities Rather, it is a time in its own right Hence, individuals accept spending more time doing it However, personal aptitude is not the only requirement in order for people to feel comfortable during their commutes; their skills must also meet the right conditions in areas of transit These ‘affordances’ (in Gibson’s sense) are essential for making use of this time This can take a variety of forms, from a comfortable seat on a train with WiFi to renting a pied-a-terre closer to work Travel time by car is limited to driving, which decreases the attractiveness of this mode for a growing number of users For the reasons we have just mentioned, the car has become an artifact which part of the population no longer knows what to with However, given that cities and regions have been largely designed for cars, this change - if it continues - may radically change the spatial organization of European societies 3.2 Transport and mobility: current context and potential for change Pursuing the discussion on transport and mobility, we conducted a survey among a sample of 1,800 individuals representative of the French population aged 15 and over The investigation was piloted by the authors of this article and the MTI Board, and carried out by TNS Sofres in late spring of 2015 The survey covers the following points: x x x x x x x x x Characteristics of the individual/household Image of the modes Residential choice criteria and characteristics of the residential location Daily travel Home to work mobility Business travel and work organization Long distances travel practices Internet use Emerging Practices (carpooling, VTC, couchsurfing, etc.)Opinions regarding possible developments in mobility We will not present all of the findings here, but rather will focus on select topics that will provide a springboard for discussion of the key mobility trends presented above We have constructed a typology of logics of action that reflects a combination of the three parameters most likely to affect mobility behavior: travel time and price comparisons, preference for certain transport modes and modal habits in lifestyles Eight logics (or types) were identified, each corresponding to a modal choice logic and specific expectations: 23 24 Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 x "Exclusive drivers" (8.7%) only use the car for daily travel; their schedules are organized around the accessibility this mode offers x “Open drivers" (16.9%), unlike "exclusive drivers," have a positive view of public transport and are therefore open (albeit abstractly) to using it x "Exclusive alternative mode users" (4.4%) never drive.Their schedules are built around the accessibility that public transport, walking and cycling offer x "Thwarted drivers" (16.6%) prefer to drive but are forced - notably due to parking and traffic conditions - to use other modes of transport for certain daily trips x "Prone to alternative modes users" (12.6%) prefer public transport, walking or cycling to car use for mobility features these modes offer x "Multimodal comparers" (22.6%) use the most efficient mode of transport according to the purpose, destination, time of travel, etc.; they are familiar with the public transport/road supply and choose on a by case basis x "Civic environmentalists" (9.9%) favor environmentally-friendly transport modes, in keeping with their convictions x “Locally rooted” individuals (8.3%) have a difficult time accessing transport modes, rendering mobility problematic Looking at these groups by age category, we noted that exclusive drivers were not to be found in the under 20 population The car was still very new to these individuals, and public transport still very present in their lives However, thwarted drivers were overrepresented in this age bracket (as well as in the 20-29 bracket), which shows this seemingly “virtuous” behavior on the part of young people in terms of modal choice was, for some, only temporary - until they could afford a car Finally, we also observed a high proportion of multimodal comparers, highlighting young people’s mastery of a wide range of modes Civic environmentalists were by and large less present at 60 and over, which hopefully is merely a generational effect These elements help highlight new prospects, above and beyond car mobility More than two thirds of those surveyed were open to or recognized the advantage of alternative modes This result is in line with the first phenomenum previously described Regarding the question of living polytopic and high mobility, we questioned respondents about their openness to forms of high mobility, including relocation (abroad or to another region), daily commuting, weekly commuting, or frequent business trips (nights away from the principal residence) These work-related mobility practices were, as it turns out, entirely conceivable for a large proportion of 15-25 years: more than half said they would be willing to move abroad, and three-quarters were prepared to weekly commute Here we see obvious generational effects insofar as those surveyed were, for the most part, single and childless (Ravalet et al., 2015) Finally, questions regarding travel time were only indirectly analyzed It is worth noting, however, that 32% of people thought they would travel more in the future (in the next years), while 24% expected they would travel less This increase in mobility is most widely accepted by younger people, who are also proportionally the least likely to consider travel time wasted time However, the direct correlation between the two has not yet been tested Finally, with regard to future trends in mobility, 16% of respondents expected they would travel more by car in the future, while 26% expected to travel less Construction of the methodology and presentation of the three scenarios Based on emerging trends relative to mobility and the findings of the quantitative survey, whose key results were presented above, we have constructed three prospective mobility scenarios The proposed demand scenarios were constructed using a two-fold logic, based on the idea that political action, to be effective and not be rejected, 1) must resonate with people’s practices and aspirations and 2) must consider the relationship between supply and demand as an interplay characterized by threshold effects The concept of a threshold effect in the interplay between mobility supply and demand makes it possible to account for the relational conditions Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 In the first scenario, a sort of “go with the flow” scenario, high mobility practices and individual travel time budgets continue to increase until 2050 Alternative modes are also more present than today but cars remain dominant In the second scenario, first signs that appeared in the survey results, showing an increase in the use of walk, bicycle, public transportation and shared uses of cars, become strong tendencies This element remains central in the third scenario In this last situation though, an additional tendency is considered, that concern a breack in current trends of the increase of travel time budgets and high mobility practices This last element is not inspired by the survey results, but by some other researches we presented in the part 3.1 4.1 The “ultramobility” scenario This first scenario considers that the car will remain a key mode of transport in France in 2050 This does not necessarily imply that its modal share will not decrease However, the car’s resistance relative to other modes means slow and limited development of alternative modes This hypothesis suggests a greater number residential locations in sparsely populated areas, which also limits the development of alternatives to single occupancy driving We gleaned in the previous pages people’s strong desire to make more constructive use of travel time, especially those who travel often and/or for long distances Thus, we feel this scenario is slightly more favorable to train/plane travel than car travel for long distances, and to public transport than car travel for local mobility Finally, we found that the modal shares of other alternatives modes have increased very little, which confirms current development trends However, even in this scenario - which can be described as the current trend - the proportion of cycling trips more than doubled, mainly due to its strong development at the moment, and which is likely to continue in the years to come The subway’s share has changed little, whereas the tram’s has developed considerably due to the current urban policy context The results of the survey indicated a rather marginal increase in carpooling in local mobility, but a more marked one in long-distance mobility Websites also have a catalytic role in carpooling, though direct carpooling practices are far more developed than those proposed by service providers 4.2 The “altermobility” scenario In this second scenario the modal share of alternative modes is greater than in the previous scenario, while the others (cars, two-wheel vehicles and planes) decrease This scenario is associated with a modal shift from singleoccupancy car use to alternative modes thanks to high-quality integrated offerings that allow for lifestyles with relatively moderate car use The situation is changing, especially for modes that already enjoyed a positive image (cycling and public transport) in 2015 For the underground and RER, however, we considered that there would undoubtedly be city-size thresholds effects to take into account in their development, which naturally limits the increase in vehicle-kilometers Moreover little investment is projected for these modes in the coming decades Trams and public bus transport (single buses, trolley-buses, bus lanes, etc.), on the other hand, can develop in a marked way For intercity travel, slow development due to limited rail infrastructure brought us to a very different projection in this scenario relative to the previous one Ultimately, we postulated that plane travel would decline in this scenario For modal distribution, we assumed that a door-to-door offer exists in France that allows for alternative mobility solutions to get almost anywhere in the country To account for this, and given the current lack of capillarity of bus networks, we simulated a modal shift to bus modes and shared modes like car sharing and carpooling for this scenario We also allowed for a "network effect" of the mobility strategy leading to an increase in use of all public transport modes (a phenomenon observed in several European countries following the introduction of an integrated offer) To establish a modal share for trains, we benchmarked countries where the train’s modal share is currently the highest (Japan and Switzerland), and thus ascribed it 16% of traveler-kilometers For this scenario to come to fruition, significant investments in rail and public transport services overall will be necessary, with the latter becoming a core technical network - like water or electricity networks - and thus irrigating the entire territory, like in Germany and Switzerland 25 26 Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 In order to determine the traveler-kilometers, we allowed for an average maximum travel time budget of two hours for this scenario Given the combined effects of the expected modal shift from car use to alternative modes and the slower average speed of these alternatives relative to the car, the "altermobility" scenario posits a decrease in travelerkilometers relative to the "ultramobility" scenario It is important note, however, that this decrease affects only the geographic range of travel, not the number of trips: in other words, the "altermobility” scenario does not postulate a decrease in mobility 4.3 The “proximobility” scenario This third scenario is based on the hypothesis of a deceleration of lifestyles, resulting in a decrease in the intensity of travel in traffic volumes associated with a modal shift from single-occupancy car use towards alternative modes thanks to high-quality, integrated offerings allowing for lifestyles with very moderate car use This scenario takes for its starting point the growing proportion of people under 25 without a driving license, the quest for quality of life and the development of local mobility around "slow" modes (such as cycling and running) and the revaluing of urban life since the early 2000s This scenario is also based on the fact that, despite an increase in long-distance mobilities and the increase in average travel speed allows for multi-residential lifestyles, etc., local rooting continues to be highly valued today Mobility is still highly valued today, but what about tomorrow? In order to maintain roots and given the cost of high mobility financially, healthwise, familywise and socially), a growing portion of the population is facing the choice of reinvesting locally This does not mean we will spending candlelit evenings spent in a rocking chair Local life can benefit from new information and communications technologies in a number of ways The key assumption in this scenario is a change how mobility is valued Moving often, far and fast will no longer a sign of success; rather, the developing of a shared desire on the part of the population to limit certain rebound effects will prevail3 In territorial terms, this scenario is characterized by the development of concentrated decentralization To date, the most sustainable local lifestyles those are found in dense urban areas However, cycling also is re-emerging in suburban and rural areas, following its resurgence in big cities In this third scenario these territories achieve the maturity they lacked previously and, with a stabilizing of populations, develop mutual aid systems and local activities run directly by the people Suburban areas will be less dispersed and reach critical mass in terms of population through strong policy measures, particularly as regards citizenship rights So densifying suburban and rural areas is not only possible - it can also contribute to meeting thresholds in many regions that, today, are ill-adapted to public transport, and mesh urban areas to better organize inter-urban travel For long-distance mobility in this scenario, public transport like the TGV is more attractive than the car travel because of the quality of the time the former affords We posit that, for the long distance travel (which is decreasing overall), the modal shift from car to the train will be consequent, allowing the TGV to maintain high traffic services Regarding forms of mobility and their translation in traffic volumes, this scenario postulates a drop in traffic services based on a decrease in travel time budgets, a substituting of reversible mobilities (commuting/high mobility) for irreversible ones (inter-regional migration) and greater appreciation of local life versus fast, far and frequent travel To implement this scenario, we assumed a 20% decrease in traveler-kilometers by 2050 For the modal attribution, as with the "altermobility" scenario we assumed that a door-to-door offer existed in France, allowing for mobility solutions other than single-occupancy car use to get almost anywhere in the territory To consider this, and given the current lack of capillarity of bus networks, we attributed a modal shift to bus modes as well as shared modes such as carsharing and carpooling We also allowed for a "network effect" of the mobility Some examples of these rebound effects are: "I telecommute so I'm going to live far away as possible," or "I shop by Internet so I can food shop a bit every day," or "I live in the city and travel fairly little during the week, so I make up for it on weekends by touring European cities with Easyjet," etc 27 Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 strategy, resulting in increased use for all public transport (an effect seen in several European countries following the introduction of an integrated offer) Regarding the figures for this scenario, we used the modal split from the altermobility scenario and specifically increased the modal shares of proximity modes, urban public transport, walking and cycling The modal share of intercity public transport modes remained stable overall, insofar as the virtuous dimension suggests residential locations that are more compatible with density, and thus with public transport In parallel, as the overall demand in this scenario was lower than that in the previous scenario, the volume of people to move was globally lower (though significantly higher than those of 2013) Thus the change in volume is much more realistic and requires less investment than in the previous scenario For the bike’s modal share in passenger-kilometers, we chose 8% as this is the figure for the Netherlands, Europe’s bike champion We must therefore turn to these countries to find models for strong measures as regards development, communication, telecommuting, vehicles, etc Our approach was similar for rail transport We set the modal share at 16%, which is the figure for Switzerland Europe’s rail champion Policy-wise, various measures are combined in this country, including integrated pricing (general rail passes), integration of the offer, spatial and temporal coverage and door-to-door service Figures for the various scenarios and their associated emissions 5.1 Focus on the figures Concerning the population increase, we used an INSEE projection indicating a French population of 72,275 million people in 2050, versus 63,786 million in 2013, an increase of 13% By specifying the age groups most affected by this increase, we are able to better highlight the aging of the population For this reason, we applied an elasticity rate of 0.5 to account for the population increase Table 1: rate of the population increase between 2015 and 2050 by age category Age groups French population growth from 2015 to 2050 Less than 20 3.2% From 20 to 59 From 60 to 64 From 65 to 74 0.6% 1.2% 22.9% More than 74 92.7% Source: Calculations based on “population projections for 2060,” October 2010, Insee première As regards economic development, we set annual GDP growth at 0.8% We also used a “coupling” parameter corresponding to the elasticity of increase in flows relative to economic growth of 0.5 (average elasticity combining stronger long-distance mobility elasticity and weaker local mobility elasticity) Neither the elasticity rate nor the projected growth level varies according to the scenario We chose an annual average growth rate of 0.8% and an elasticity rate for traffic relative to the GDP of 0.5 5.2 Figures by scenario The ultramobility scenario is built on two extremes relative to an increase in high mobility (1) and increased telecommunications use (2) respectively (1) In light of the elements discussed above, an increase in high mobility could affect commute and leisure trips (vacations, visits to family and friends, urban tourism, etc.) It thus requires less consideration of the work location in residential choice logics and greater consideration of the desire for calm, green spaces and a garden In this perspective, urban and metropolitan sprawl continues However, the increase in high mobility does not occur on a widespread basis for all travel motives If, in 2050, more French people live in sparsely urbanized areas than today, they will also tend to stay home more often on weekends and during vacations, as the "barbecue effect" suggests (Munafo, 2015) Another point: if people relocate less for work-related reasons, they ensure greater proximity to relatives and/or certain 28 Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 friends, which may limit long-distance travel for visits As such, we limited the increase in passenger-kilometers to 15% for this scenario (2) We posit that people will maximize the ICT in order to to replace physical trips This is possible for certain types of trips but less so for others Leisure activities for instance are, generally speakin, little affected On the other hand, certain long-distance business trips could be replaced by video conferencing At the local level, shopping, administrative procedures, primary and university education and jobs may require less physical travel in 2050 than today This naturally implies a way of re-organizing work that is radically different so that telecommuting can develop The survey findings not imply that the French are unwilling to telecommute; rather, they merely demonstrate that work as it exists today, in many cases, demands physical presence and a certain rigidity of schedules However, this will not necessarily be the case in the decades to come From this standpoint, State intervention must focus primarily on the Labour Code and businesses, whose relationship to work and work organization must change Face to face sociability could also be increasingly replaced by virtual exchanges However, these are only the early stages of ICT development, and social change can take place quickly Finally, in this first scenario, we assume that, overall, passenger-kilometers will increase from 833 to 1054 billion, an increase of 27% between 2013 and 2050, which is explained both by current patterns and by the population increase and economic growth Regarding the altermobility scenario, we did not establish the overall demand level before determining the modal split We used modal shares and did a sensitivity analysis of individual time budgets (time spent traveling per day per person) The most favorable modal split for alternative modes for this scenario was associated with a 15% increase in individual time budgets Individual time budgets, though not set in stone, tend to evolve slowly, as the time saved is reinvested in increased distances traveled We drew on this well documented observation (Zahavi and Talvitie, 1980) to reduce the overall travel volume by 15% for this scenario relative to the previous one, thus going from 833 billion passenger-kilometers in 2013 to 900 in 2050 - an increase of 8% Concerning the proximobility scenario, when proximity is greatly valued, people naturally tend to fall back the services, activities and people close to their place of residence Relocation should be easy in this situation, so that people can optimize their residential location with their lifestyles We accepted a 20% drop in traveler-kilometers Considering the population growth, the decrease was limited to 2% Our position is relatively conservative compared to that of Negawatt (2015), who allows for a decrease in travelerkilometers of approximately 7% 5.3 Figures by mode For walking, the percentage of traveler-kilometers in 2013 was estimated at 2.35% The return to city centers and the seemingly increasing desire for proximity led us to quantify the situation in 2050 at 2.5% for S1 For S3 we doubled this figure to 5% of the traveler-kilometers modal share This sharp increase would only be possible by increasing the frequency of these trips, as walkable distances are quickly limited Policy efforts to develop dense urban lifestyles and the aging of the population can also contribute to bringing about such changes For cycling, we went from 1.34% in 2013 to 2%, 5% and 8% for S1, S2 and S3 respectively These increases are strong, and would require proactive policies in order to be realized One of the challenges here is boosting the proportion of medium-distance trips made by bike Thus, dense urban settings alone are not enough; cycling (for functional purposes) in peri-urban and rural areas must also be developed Again, the figure of 8% is extremely ambitious For Négawatt (2015), cycling and walking remained stable at 1% of the modal share in 2050 Of the individual alternative modes, their scenario largely focuses on the development of two-wheel vehicles, whose modal share was five time higher in 2050 than in 2001, whereas this figure remained stable in our work For intercity and urban public transport, the increase in modal shares was differentiated by sub-modes We applied only a small change for intercity travel, and much stronger development for the TER and TGV We also favored trams and buses for cities Our projections are less ambitious than those of Négawatt, but were deemed more realistic by SNCF, our partner for this project Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 For buses, our estimates rose 4.8% to 10% for the S3 scenario; for Négawatt, this figure increased from 4% to 9%, and hence were similar on this point In the coming years, this mode should become a viable alternative to car and train travel in a number of regions The proposed projections are very ambitious: many proactive measures must be put in place in order to come anywhere close to the modal shares and levels of provision projected here, especially for the S3 scenario In S3, Factor is just barely achieved, even though are considered an overall decline in traveler-kilometers a break in modal practices, and a significant degree of technological progress 5.4 Summary The two tables below help us to visualize the final results obtained for modal shares and traffic volumes respectively Fig Modal shares for the three scenarios (ultramobility, altermobility and proximobility) 29 30 Vincent Kaufmann and Emmanuel Ravalet / Transportation Research Procedia 19 (2016) 18 – 32 Fig Traffic volumes for the scenarios: ultramobility, altermobility and proximobility Conclusion The prospective study presented in this article led to several, very different conclusions, both methodologically and relative to the future of mobility To begin, methodologically speaking, it demonstrates the advantage of establishing prospective scenarios based on an analysis of the scientific literature and survey data, which make it possible to clearly identify potential solutions This approach has notably helped identify powerful levers that are likely to profoundly change the future of mobility — in other words, the overall travel volume and its modal shares, and in this respect shows that sustainable mobility requires action on both fronts The consideration of the scientific literature appears as a central methodological element we want here to argue in favour of Weak signals, that are difficult to highlight through surveys or measures, are often underlying some rifts and revolutions… In terms of the three futures identified in these three scenarios, our findings suggest that the car may one day no longer be the primary mode of transport for daily mobility A decrease in car use was not imaginable until 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Mobilité sans racines Plus loin, plus vite Plus mobiles ? Descartes & Cie, Paris Viry, G et Kaufmann, V (Ed.) 2015 Mobile Europe, Palgrave McMillan, London Zahavi, Y & Talvitie, A., 1980 Regularities in Travel Time and Money Expenditure Transportation Research Record 750, 13-19 Zahavi, Y., 1979 The UMOT Project, USDOT, Washington  ... initially expects an overall drop in the transport demand due to ongoing densification efforts in urban areas and the revitalization of rural areas With regard to modal shares, Négawatt expects a. .. conditions in areas of transit These ‘affordances’ (in Gibson’s sense) are essential for making use of this time This can take a variety of forms, from a comfortable seat on a train with WiFi to renting... The place of the car in daily life in France Since the 1980s, research on daily mobility shows that creating a modal shift has been the main objective of transport policy in many large and medium-sized