• KHOA HOC CONG NGHE • XAY DUNG GAG TIEU CHJ LdNG GHEP BI^N D | KHI HAU VAO QUY HOAGH, KE HOAGH SAN X U A T NONG NGHIEP CAP XA PHUG vy XAY DUNG NONG THON wdi d VIET NAM THS HA HAI DirONG, THS NGUYEN XUAN LAM, PGS.TS NGUYEN VAN VIET Vi^n Nude, Ttr&i tieu vd Moi trirdng, Vi$n khoa hpc thdy Ifi Vi$l Nam Tom t3t: Lien quan din cdng tdc img phd vdi BBKH vd gidm nhe rui ro thien tai, Viet Nam dang hien cdc vdn bdn chi dao ciia Chinhphii vd tdt cd cdc vdn bdn ndy deu neu ro tdm quan trpng vd su ciia viec ldng ghep BBKH vdo cdc chien luac, quy hoach, ke hoach phdt trien a tdt cd cdc cdp vd da ke hogch, phdt trien KT-XH ndi chung vd nong nghiep ndi rieng theo hudng phdt trien ben vimg Tu chitng ta chua cd mdl vdn bdn chinh thuc hudng ddn cu the nao cho qud trinh ldng ghep BBKH c nghiep d cdp xd chuang trinh xdy dung phdt trien ndng thdn mdi a Viet Nam Be gdp phdn gid khd khdn tren, viec xdy dung tdi lieu hudng ddn cUng nhu cdc tieu chi cho quy trinh ldng ghep thic bien ddi hdu quy hoach vd lap ke hoach phdt trien nong nghiep cdp xd la cdn thiet Bdi b trinh bay cdc ldc ddng ciia BBKH den cdc lmh vuc ndng nghiep vd lit xdy dung duac cdc tieu c ghep BBKH vdo quy hogch ke hogch sdn xudt ndng nghiep cdp xd Tie khda: Long ghep bien ddi hdu, Sdn xudt ndng nghiep, tieu chi long ghep bien ddi hd Abstract; Regarding to the tasks for climate change adaptation and disaster risks mitigatio Vietnam government had promulgated many relevant documents and guidelines All these docum expressed the important of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development strateg policies and planning at all level, especially development and planning of socio-economic secto general and sustainable agriculture development sectors in particular However, there is still no guideline for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into agriculture sector at community lev new rural development in Vietnam Therefore, the development of a guideline and criteria mainstreaming climate change adaptation into agriculture sector at community level is urgent req This paper presents climate change impacts on agriculture sectors and based on that proposing criteria for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into agriculture sector at community level Key words: Mainstreaming climate change adaptation, agriculture production, mainstreaming c I TAG BONG CUA BIEN BOI KHI giam khoang 743,8 ngan tin vao n5m 2030 va HAU BEN CAC LINH VlTC NONG 1475 ngan tin vao nam 2050 Cac cay m k NGHIEP VIET NAM luong thuc nhu ngo co nguy co giam 500,4 ngan tin vao nam 2030 va giam 880,4 ngan tin 1.1 LTnh vu-c nong nghiep a) Suy gidm ndng sudt vd sdn lupng Iuang thuc: vao nam 2050, nang suit dau tuong co nguy c Ket qua nghien cmi cho thiy n6u dien biin giam 83,47kg/ha vao nam 2030 va 214,81 kg/ha hau theo nhu kich ban, voi che dp canh tac vao nam 2050 tac dgng ciia BDKH.' b) Mdl dai nude biin ddng nhu hi?n tai thi san lupng Wa xuan se co thg se giam khoang 1,2 trieu tin vao nam 2030 va 2,16 Theo kjch ban BDKH din cu6i thi ky 21 nuoc tri?u tin vao nSm 2050 San luong liia he thu se biin dang Im, co toi 38,29% di$n tich dit tv'nhien 68 TAPCHfTAl NGUYEN Nl/dCSO4-2014 " • KHOA HOC CQNG NGHE • va 32,16% dien tieh ddt nong nghiep bi ngap tai sinh thai bien va ven bien, gay nguy co vdi cac 10 tmh DBSCL nlu khong co bien phap ung phd ran san h6 va rirng ngap man, anh hudng xau kip thdi Den nam 2100, vua Iiia D6ng bang s6ng den nen tang sinh hgc cho cac hoat dpng khai Ciiu long CO nguy ca mat di 7,6 trieu tan liia/nam, thac va nuoi tr6ng thuy san ven bien Hau qua tuang duong vdi 40,52% t6ng san lugng liia eiia eua viec suy thoai rimg ngap man se keo theo vung Neu kich ban BDKH, nude bien dang d cac tac dpng khae, la gia tang nguy co xdi Id miic cao {A2), Viet Nam se doi mat vdi viec thieu bd bien, tang miic pha buy d6i vdi vung ven Iuang thyc trdm trgng vao nam 2100 nhu mat di bien tac dgng ciia bao, 16c, song bien va 21.39% san lugng Iiia ca nude (mdi tinh rieng cho rimg ngap man hi suy thoai thi da dang sinh hgc vung DBSCL) Tren thye te, dien tich se bi ngap hi anh hudng theo hudng tieu cyc.[7,12,16] nude bien dang Im tren pham vi ea nude 1.3 Linh vwc thiiy san ldn hon nhieu [ 12,16] a) Tae dpng eiia BDKH den khai thde vd c) Tdc dpng den vgt nuoi, sdu binh hgi miig nuoi thuy sdn mdng vd gia sue Tac dpng BDKH ddi vdi nghe ca phu thuge Nang suat, san lugng cay trdng, vat nudi co vao ehu6i thiic an dai ducmg, chudi se hi rdi the bi giam bien dg cua nhiet do, am va loan khi hau thay ddi CJ viing dong bang, cac yeu to ngoai canh khae tang len Nguon mua mua lii co the lam giam kha nang cung cap thiic an cho chan nu6i giam Nhiet sinh de, phat tan, phat trien cua ca Cac yeu to tSng ciing vdi bien dgng ve cac yeu to hau nhu myc nude bien, nhiet do, man, toe va va thai tiet khae co the lam giam siic de khang hudng gid, day tram tich se anh hudng ldn cua vat nuoi, ddng thdi tao moi trudng thuan lgi tdi thuy sinh vat, qua dd tac ddng den kha nang cho cac tac nhan gay benh bimg phat, gay eung cap dinh dudng cho ea, sy di eu ciia ca nhiing dai dich Idn cho cay trdng vat nuoi nhu theo su bien d6i eiia nhiet gia siie, gia cam b) Tdc dpng cua BDKH den ehe biin, djch vu hgu cdn va ca s& hg tdng thuy sdn 1.2 Linh virc lam nghifp a) Su thay ddi ranh gi&i phdn bo cua cdc he sinhBDKH cung gay nhiing anh hudng kh6ng thdi rimg tie nhien, rimg vd da dgng sinh hpc nho doi vdi co sd tang cae cang ca, noi neo Theo kich ban nen nhiet dp tang, lugng dau tau thuyen, eac tram xang dau ven bien,v.v mua thay d6i, s6 co sy dich chuyen nhieu Ioai e) Tdc dpng ciia BDKH din ddi song cpng cay dae trung d vimg co nen nhiet cao d vi dong ngu ddn dg thap len vimg ed vT cao hon Sy thay d6i Viet Nam co 28 tinh ven bien, khoang ranh gidi va di?n tieh ciia he sinh thai rimg 20 trieu dan s6ng gan bo vdi bien va hai dao Khi dae trung theo eac kich ban BDKH vao nam hau bien ddi, thien tai xay ra, san xuat kho khan, 2020,2050 va2100 thu nhap se giam siit, doi ngheo sinh, thyc te b) BDKH se ldm tdng nguy ca chdy rimg a cho thay, ngudi dan cd the bi mat noi cu tni, phai di eu, chuyen doi nghe nghiep [12,16 ] Viet Nam Nguy CO chay rimg se tang cac thap ky 1.4 LTnh vyc thuy lgi tdi Cae thang cd nguy co chay rimg cao la thang a) Cdc hien tugng hdu cue doan lam hu 5, va Nguy co chay rung vao nam 2020 tang hgi cdc cong trinh thuy lgi hon so vdi nam 2000 tu - 40%; vao nam 2050 la Trong vong hem 40 nam qua (1954-1997) da tir 16-52% va vao nam 2100 la tir 51-85%.; CO 320 can bao va ap thap nhiet ddi anh hudng den Viet Nam Bao thudng kem theo mua Idn c) Ddi vdi h? sinh thdi rimg ngdp man BDKH, dac biet la mue nude bi6n dang va gay lu lyt, Iii quet, lam thiet hai nang ne ve sinh nhiet nude bien tang anh hudng d6n eac he mang va tai san Bao lii la nguyen nhan gay nen TAPCHfTAl NGUYEN NL;(5CS64-2014 69 • KHOA HOC CONG NGHE • mdt an toan va eo the pha hoai cac c6ng trinh thuy lgi, he thong de dieu (de s6ng va de bien) Tir nam 1970 dSn nay, boat dgng ciia bao va ap thdp nhiet ddi eo phan diln manh liet han Han han it de dga den he thong e6ng trinh, nhung han han ciing gay thiet hai ldn den san xudt va ddi s6ng ngudi Trong nhimg nam gan day, tinh trang ban ban, thieu nude mua kho dien bien d hau het eac khu vyc ca nude, vdi miic dp, quy mo cang Idn ban b) Muc nuae bien ddng cdn tra thodt nude vd tdng xdm nhgp man Myc nude bien dang lam cho viec cap nude d vimg duyen hai trd nen kho khan ban Cac tang nude ngam bi man xam nhap, nude cae gieng bj man hoa, khong diing cho sinh boat ho^c tudi dugc, huge phai ngimg boat dpng Hien tugng nude man cang xam nhap sau vao cac ciia s6ng, lan sau vao d6ng rugng lam dien tich lua bi nhiem man tang len, lam cho nhieu c6ng trinh thuy Igi gap khd khan, kh6ng boat dpng binh thudng.[7, 8,16 ] 1.5 Linh vyc diem nghiep Nude bien dang lam mat di nhi^u diem trudng, giam dien tich d6ng muoi va eo sd tang san xuat muoi bi anh hudng D6ng thdi sy gia tang lugng mua ldn vdi cudng cao hon anh hudng d6n nang sudt san lugng mu6i Viec thu hep dien tich san xuat, giam san lugng mu6i lam gia tang dien ngheo khu vyc diem nghiep va tao sy di chuyen cu dan diem nghiep dSn nhiing vimg dat mdi de tim sinh kk mdi, gay them ap lyc cho nhung vimg cu dan dianh thi hoac nong th6n v6n da CO mat dp cao va/hoac binh quan dien tich ddt nong nghiep tren ddu ngudi thdp [8] 1.6 Linh vu-c phat trien co' sd tang nong thon a) Tdc dgng din hg tdng nong thon de dga dai sdng, sice khoe cpng dong Dan s6 d nong thon Viet Nam chiSm 73% t6ng s6 dan ciia ca nude (nam 2010), d6 tap trung phdn Idn la ngudi ngheo Day la d6i tugng chiu anh hudng nang n6 nhdt cua BDKH 70 TAPCHfTAl NGUYEN Nac5CS64-2014 do, BDKH se gay kho khan rdt ldn cho cong cugc xoa doi giam ngheo d nong thon nhung thap ky tdi He th6ng cdp nude sinh boat ve sinh mdi trudng nong thon bi anh hudng tram trgng C6ng trinh cdp nude bi ngap, bi pha vd thien tai bao lut; Ngu6n nude bi can ki?t, nhiem, xam nhap man ban ban He thong giao thong n6ng thon ciing bi anh hudng tram trpng: nhieu tuyen giao thdng bi ngap lyt, xoi 16 mat va nen dudng; Sy can kiet dong chay s6ng ngoi ve miia khd dan den giao th6ng thuy bj anh hudng Myc nude bien dang, soi Id bd song gay mat dat tao nen nhirng lan sdng di cu bat buoc anh hudng den sinh ke va gay mat 6n dinh va kem ben viing cho cac ehuang trinh phat trien, eai thien sinh ke va siic khoe eong d6ng b) Tdc dpng din viec thicc hien muc tieu xoa ddi gidm ngheo, muc tieu Thien nien ky Viet Nam la mgt cac quoc gia tren the gidi dat dugc cac myc tieu thien nien ky vao nam 2015 Viet Nam da giam ty le ddi ngheo tic khoang 58% nam 1993 xuong 18% vao nam 2006 Tuy nhien nhiJng tyu gid day dang bi de dga BDKH BDKH la mgt nguy ea, rui ro cdn phai tinh d6n qua trinh xay dyng, hoan thien va thyc hi?n cac ehi6n luge, quy hoach va k6 hoach phat triin KT-XH Hau qua cua BDKH la thach thirc nghiem trgng d6i vdi myc tieu xoa doi, giam ngheo, muc tieu thien nien ky va sy phat triin bin viing cua ddt nude noi chung va nong nghiep noi rieng [13] n XAY DlTNG CAC TIEU CHI LONG GHEP BDKH VAO QUY HOACH, KE HOACH SAN XUAT NONG NGHIEP 2.1 Cac tieu chi hau doi vdi nong, Iam nghiep va nuoi thuy san a) Tieu ehi ve nhiit dp Doi vdi ndng lam nghiep va nudi tr6ng thuy san la nhung sinh vat sdng eo lien quan tryc tiip vdi hau Cho nen, d nhiing vimg ma miia nhiet la miia sinh trudng cua cay tr6ng vat nu6i vdi nghia rpng bao g6m ca chan nuoi va nu6i thuy san (nu6i tren can va nu6i dudi nude) thi CO thdi ky rdt quan trpng, cdn quan tam • KHOA HOC CONG NGHE • la: (1) thdi ky co kha nang xay nhung dgt ret vdi cay tr6ng, vat nu6i kh6ng bi ban che nhung hai (3 lien tiip trd len ed nhiet khong nen n6ng nghiep khong eo dieu kien ehu dgng trung binb 250C (miia nong-miia he) Thdi ky co ret hai la mgt trd ngai ldn d6i vdi tha; 2) Lugng mua tich luy den thdi diem nao san xuat nong Iam nghiep va chan nu6i, vi no gan thi du nude eho eay tr6ng can, nao bat dau lien vdi cac hien tugng thdi tiet gay hai eho cay trdng Ilia nude va nu6i tr6ng thuy san; 3) Co the trong, vat nu6i nhu ret hai, suong mudi, bang gia bo tri thdi vy muon de nudi, tr6ng vao Iiic nao Thdi ky co nhiet dp kh6ng trung binh < tiem nang mua van cdn 200C rat cd y nghTa viee b6 tri eac cay ua Ben canh de danh gia nguon nude cho lanh va ciing la thdi ky sinh trudng manh me chan nu6i can phai biet nhu cau nude cho timg nhat cua cac loai cdy rau, hoa, qua nguon goc on loai gia sue gia cam de e6 ke hoach phan b6 ddi Nguge lai thdi ky bat dau nhiet tren thich hgp vdi nguon nude ty nhien eiia timg 200C la thdi vy gieo cac cay n6ng lam viing (xem Bang 1) nghiep ua nhi?t (a ddi va nhiet ddi) va chan tha gia sue va nuoi tr6ng thiiy san Bang Nhu cau dung nirdc cua mOt so lo^i gia sue, gia cam Thdi k^' CO nhi?t dp khong trung binh (theo dinh mirc 2008)[9, 17 ] > 250C rat cd y nghia viec xae dinh va bo tri thdi ky hoa - lam qua t6t nhat cho cae cay luong thyc, thuc pham (thdi ky tro d6i Trau Ngira + Gia siic Lgn Gia cam vdi Ilia, phun rau trd cd cua ngo, hoa - lam de + bd qua cua dau tuong, cua lae ) [16] b) Tieu chi vi lugng mua 50 20 100 60 Ddnh gid ve muc bdo dam nu&c mua eho cdy vdt nuoi Ben c?nh eac tieu chi ve nhiet dp, ciing can phai biet nhu cau cua cay trdng vat nuoi doi vdi Tir ket qua phan bd gia siic cae viing va nude Biet dugc nhu cau nude cua cay trdng ,vat tieu chuan diing nude cho vat nudi tinh dugc nu6i, sii dyng s6 Ii?u lugng mua trung binh nam nhu cau sii dyng nude cho chan nudi ddi vdi CO the xae dinh dugc nhiing lugng mua nam cd timg vimg sinh thai dieu kien BDKH ths mong dgi de cho cae cay vat nu6i dd Chi tieu mua ngdy vd ede trdn mua to keo sinh trudng irng vdi eac suat bao dam khac ddi gdy lit lut, IU quet vd sat la ddt d tiing miia vy va d6i vdi timg vung Dieu Nhin chung d Viet nam nhirng tran mua ldn rat CO nghia viec danh gia mirc dp thieu gay lii lut hoac lii quet, sat Id dat la cac hinh nude hoac thira nude d6i vdi cay trdng (cay the thdi tiet sau day: nong nghiep va cay rimg), vat nu6i (tren can va - Xoay thap Bac Bd nam rieng Ie hoSe ndm dudi nude) eung nhu quy hoach phat trien cae mgt giai thap ed true Tay bac ~ D6ng h^ th6ng thuy lgi d6i vdi timg vimg cu the Nam hoae Dong Tay vat qua Bae Bp hoat dpng Doi vai cdy vd vgt nuoi irng dung manh tir tang thap den tang cao; lugng mua tich lUy ddu miia vd cudi miia di bd - Xoay thap lanh hoac giai ap thap ton tai d tri thdi vu Nam Trung Qu6c ket hgp vdi kh6ng lanh D6i vdi nhiing viing ma diiu kien nhiet d6i hoac bi cao ap lanh day dan xu6ng phia Nam; TAPCHfTAlNGUYeNNLrOCSc54-2ai4 71 • KHOA HOC CONG NGHE - Ranh ap thap ndng pbla Tay ket bgp vdi tang trgng ciia lgn ga nudi idy thit' [9,16] Sic dung ehi s6 nhiet - dm (THI) xdc dinh khong lanh; - Giai hpi ty nhiet ddi, xoay thuan ket hgp vdi muc gidm dn cd cua bo sira: HDEC=-28,19+0,39 THI; 0) khong lanh hay eae hinh the thdi tiit khac; Trong do: - Bao hoac bao kit hgp vdi cae hinh the thdi H.DEC la miic giam tuyet dii vi kh6i tiit khac la loai hinh thdi tiit gay mua ldn dien lugng CO khd sir dung (kg/con bo sua ngay); rpng ddn tdi lu quet THL Chi so nhiet dm trung binh Tir cac hinh thi gay mua d cae vimg co the xac dinh dugc cac chi tieu mua gay lii lyt, lii ngdy, (THI> 72) Chi s6 THI dugc xdc djnh theo cong thicc quet va s^t Id dat nhu sau: THl=tkh6+0,36tdi6msLrcmg+41,2, (2) - v i sy phan b6 theo khong gian ldn, dien Vdi tkha -Nhiet kh6ng khi; tdi^m suongmua rgng tir tren 2000-3000km2; - v i su phan b6 mua theo thdi gian mua to Nhiet diem suong; Mire gidm sdn lupng sica dugc tinh theo din rdt to keo dai tu 2-3 tham chi keo dai phuang trinh: tdi 8-9 chia lam 2-3 dgt lien tiep; M.DEC =-1,075 - 1,736NL + 0,02474(NL) - Lugng mua va cudng dp mua: Mua smh lii lyt *(TH1); (3) la lugng mua ldn hon hoae bang lOOmm/ngay; Trong do: - D6i vdi mua sinh lii quet sat Id dat la lugng M.DEC- Miic giam san lugng siia thuc ti mua tren 200-500nun hoac tren 300-600mm dgt (kg/con bo ngay); NL - Mue san lugng trung c) Tiiu chi nude biin ddng doi v&i nhirng binh chuan (kg/eon ngay) ; THI - Chi s6 nhiet am trung binh vUng ven bien Ket qua xac djnh viing cd nguy co bi ngap - Ty le thy thai ciia trau, bo va cac gia siic khac: theo cac muc nude bien dang cho thay: Neu CR= 388,3-4,62THI; (4) myc nude bien dang cao m, se ed khoang 39% Trong dd: dien tich vimg dong bang song Ciiu Long c6 CR- Ty le thy thai; THI -Ty s6 nhietj dm nguy CO bi ngap (anh hudng tryc tiep khoang trung binh ngay, (THI > 69) 35% so dan); khoang 11% dien tieh vimg d6ng Muc gidm sdn lugng trung cda gd mdi tinh bang s6ng H6ng co nguy eo bi ngap (anh hudng theo cdng thicc: true tiep khoang 10% sd dan) Egg = 0,556 + 0,0389 tjb - 0,00179 t ^db Ddi vdi cac tinh ven bien mien Trung, 0,0000186 t \ b , (5) khoang 2,5% t6ng dien tich cua khu vyc c6 Trong dd: nguy CO bi ngap (anh hudng true tiep khoang Egg - S6 qua tning cua I ga mai de 10% s6 dan); 20,1% dien lich ph6 H6 chi qua /con/ngay (tinh cho ga mai Rhode cd Minh CO nguy co bi ngap (anh hudng true tiip lugng la 2,25kg); Tjb - Nhiet dp khdng tinh khoang 9% so dan) [4] theo nhiet biiu khd ( 55 Tdb < 30'^C); d) Tiiu chl nhiet-dm ddnh gid khd ndng phdt Miic tang trgng cua ga thit tinh theo triin chdn nuoi bd siea vd gia cdm dieu phuong trinh: ki^n BDKH BADG =-6,338 *10-H 1,963 *10-^(Wi + Thdi tiet khac nghiet (ret, nong va oi biic) 3,055 10"^ (THI) khong chi anh hudng den siic khde cua vat nu6i 2,521*10-^THl)^9,061*10-^THl*W^-(6) ma anh hudng din kha nang sir dyng thiic Trong do: an, nang lyc sinh siia, ty le thy thai cua cac loai BADG- Tang trung binh cda gia sue, kha nang de chiing cua gia cam, miic ga CO lupng tii 0,5 -1,5kg (kg/con 72 TAP CHITAI NGUYEN Nl/dC 5(54-2014 • KHOA HQC CONG NGHE • ngay); w- Trgng lugng cua ga (kg/con); benh ddm la ngo, benh thdi bap ngo, benh THI - Chi s6 nhiet dm tnmg binh loet cam quyt, benh gi sat ca phe [15] J) To hgp cdc yeu to hdu di gidm sdt sdu (THI > 70) e) Tiiu chi ve dgc tinh sinh hpe cug sdu benh benh hgi cdy trdng vdt nuoi hgi cdy trdng vdt nudi M6i mpt loai sau benh co nhiing yeu cau Mu6n phong trir sau, benh ed hieu qua khdng rieng ve dieu kien hau nong nghiep Sy sinh nhfing phai nam viing dac tinh sinh v$t hgc eua trudng va phat trien eiia cdn trimg phy thupc co timg loai sau, b?nh ma cdn phai biet t6 hgp cae ban vao cae yeu t6 hau nong nghiep (Nhiet yiu t6 h^u ed anh hudng den su phat sinh, dp va am dp khdng khi) Trong dieu kien thich phat trien va lay lan cua chiing Dudi day la mgt hgp, chiing phat trien rat nhanh mgt thdi so vi du ciia mgt s6 loai sau benh: gian rat ngan Sau due than liia (cdn gpi la sau budai cham) De giam sat dieu kien hau ndng nghiSp ddi Chi tieu tugng n6ng nghiep thich bgp: vdi su phat sinh phat trien eiia benh dao on lay lan - Tning nd rat t6t d nhiet dp 25 - 290C va tren liia d ddng bang sdng Hong va dong bdng dm kh6ng la 90 -100%; s6ng Cim Long da sd dyng cae chl tieu sau day: - SSu non phat trien cham nhiet 30 - Thich hgp eho dao on phat trien nhiet dp 360C, nhi^t dg 90%; - Vdng ddi trung binh mgt liia ve miia nong - It thich hgp rihiet dp trung binh < 24°C 1^ 38 - 64 va miia lanh la dd - 82 va>28''C,dpdm30"C, - Vdng ddi trung binh mgt lua ray tir 25 - 30 Ray nau co kha nang boat dgng d nhiet dp dm trung binh 90%; tir 18 - 36°C, d nhiet 20**C thi thdi gian rdy -^ Tuong ddi thich hgp la d cac to hgp cai de tning tdi 30 ngay, nguge lai d nhiet 28 hau n6ng nghiep khac ngoai 216 hgp tren.[15] - SO^'C ray cai de tning vdng cd 15-18 2.2 Cac tieu chi ve thien tai doi vdi thuy Moi ray cai co the de 150 - 350 tning lyi, diem nghiep va cc sd tang nong thon D6i vdi thuy Igi, diem nghiep ed the dugc D0c diem cua mpt so b§nh xem nhu nhiing eo sd tang ndng th6n, la B?nh dao 6n {Piricularia oryzae) Chi tieu tugng n6ng nghiep: nhiet CO sd vat chat vo eo, khae hoan toan vdi cac ddi thieh hgp cho nam benh phat trien la 24 - 280C, tugng cua san xuat Nong, Lam va Ngu nghiep dm d0 la 90 -100% Nhiet dp dudi 180C va tren da phan la nhiing vat the hum co 300C deu khong thich hgp cho benh phat trien, Tac dpng ciia bien doi hau den Co sd hei am dp trung binh ciia khdng dudi 90% nam tang ndng thon dugc nhan dien qua cac dang phat trien cham nhu: Lam thay doi tien va thdi gian thi c6ng; Ngoai mgt so sau benh khac nhu: sau Lam hu hong va giam tu6i thp cac c6ng trinh; cuon la, sau gai, benh bac la Ida, benh Iiia An mdn cac c6ng trinh ven bien; Tang miic dp von va d moi loai cay khac co mgt loai pha hoai lam hu hong cong trinh lii lyt xay sau b?nh khac nhu: sau edn la ng6, sau due thudng xuyen han, manh hon, thdi gian ngap than ng6, sau xam co hai cho nhiiu loai cay lau ban; Pha buy va Iam hu hong cong trinh tr6ng, sau loang hai bdng, sau dye than ca phe kenh muong ngi dong mua bao cudng dg TAPCHfTAl N G U Y £ N N I / ( C S - 73 • KHOA HQC CONG NGHE • Nguy CO chay rimg cua mpt dugc xac idn xay ke ea cac cdng trinh thiiy lgi va diem nghiep; Chi phi xay dung tang; Chi phi sira dinb theo cdng thirc cua V.G Nesterop: chiia thudng xuyen tang (7) P>.=^Zt„3''d„3 Cho nen, co duge nhimg thdng tin hau, va cac tieu chi dinh lugng ciia chiing va cac Men Trong dd: tugng hau cyc doan nhu nhiet qua cao hay ^^' la chi tieu tugng ting hgp tinh eho qua thdp, mua ldn, bao, ap thap nhiet ddi gay lii thii i, K la he s6 co gia tri bdng lugng lyt, Iii quet, lu ong, sat Id dat, ban ban, gio tay kho mua thu i nho ban 5mm, va cd gia tri bang nong, nude bien dang, xam nhap man, tir qua khu lugng mua ldn hem hoac bang 5mm, va hien tai cimg vdi kich ban BDKH, nude bien tii3 la nhiet kh6ng Iiic 13 gid thii i dang doi vdi timg viing sinh thai deu la eac thdng ("^C), d,i3 la dp hut bao hoa am kh6ng liic tin quan trgng doi vdi quy hgach, ke hoach xay 13 gid thu i (mb), n la sd khdng mua dung ca sd tdng nong th6n.[15] ho$c CO mua nhung nhd hon mm ke tir a) Suphdn bo bao vd ^ thdp nhiet ddi a cde vimg cu6i ciing co lugng mua ldn ban mm Khu vyc Quang Ninh den Ha TTnh (vT dp Ngay ma ^^ tu 7500 - 10000 dugc gpi la 22 - 18°), bao va ATND bdt ddu tu thang V va p ket thiic vao thang XII Bao tap trung vao thang cd nguy co chay cao, Ngay ma si Idn han 10000 VIII (19%) sau din thang IX va thang VII S6 dugc gpi la cd nguy co chay rat cao Nguy lupng bao d6 bg vao khu vuc chiem gan 1/2 CO chay rimg ciia mgt thang dugc xac dinh theo s6 tong s6 bao bp vao Viet Nam (48,4%); co nguy co chay eao va rat cao Khu vyc tif Quang Binh den Quang Nam Can cd vao sd cd nguy ca chay rimg Da Nang (vT tuyin 18 - 16°) bao bdt ddu tir cao, tien hanh phan cap nguy co chay rung cho thang V din thang XI Bao tap trung vao thang mdi dia phuang nhu sau: IX, sau din thang X va thang VIII T6ng s6 bao d6 bp vao vimg ehiim 19,7% so vdi Bang Cdp nguy cff chay rimg xac djnh theo so co nguy co" chay cao [7] t6ng so bao dd bg vao Viet Nam; Khu vyc Quang Ngai den Phii Yen (vT tuyin So co dp 16 - 14**) bao bdt dau tir thang IV va kit thiic vao TT nguy CO chay nguy Mi^c nguy cff chay thang XII Bao tap trung vao thang X, sau din cao tren thang ccchay thang XI va thang DC T6ng s6 bao di bp vao khu 15 V Nguy CO chay rit cao din thang X va thang XII S6 can bao di bg vao khu vuc chiim 12,2% ting s6 cac can bao Tieu chi khong chi ap dung cho chay d6 bg vao Viet Nam; rimg ma ap dung cho viec dinh gia cac cip Khu vyc tir Ba Ria Viing Tau den Nam Bo s6 han doi vol cac cong trinh thuy lgi va h8 chiia can bao di bg vao khu vyc chi chiim 4% phuc vu cac cong trinh tuoi nuoc cho nong tong s6 eon bao d6 bg vao Viet Nam Miia bao bdt nghiep va sinh boat a nong thon ,v.v ddu tir diang VIII din cuii thang XU, bao tap trung c) Cdc lieu chi ddi vai diem nghiep vd co sa vao thang XI, sau din thang X va thang XII hg Idng ndng Ihdn b)Tieu chi khd hgn lien quan din chdy rieng Tieu chi vi chi phi tang them quan ly vd cdc cong trinh thuy lgi van hanh cong trinh 74 TAPCH(TAlNGUY6NNir(3C 504-2014 • KHOA HQC CONG NGHE < /rf = : ^ 0 % ; (8) Trong do: D - Chi phi quan Iy van hanh edng trinh co sd tdng n6ng nghiep va nong thon giai doan BDKH (d); Dij- Chi phi quan ly van banh cdng tririh CO sd tdng n6ng nghiep va n6ng th6n thdi k>' nin (d); fa - Ty le thay ddi phat smh c6 tac dpng cua BDKH giai doan tinh toan Chi tieu: fd 50% tae dpng mgnh Tieu chi ve ehi phi xay dyng tang them Chi phi tang them qua trinh xay dyng eong trinh, thay doi tuyen, keo dai thdi gian thi cdng; ket cau thay d6i A = ^ ^ ^ 0 % ; (9) Kt Trong do: Kt - Chi phi xay dyng tang them tac dpng cua BDKH (d); Ky - Chi phi xay dyng cdng trinh co sd tang n6ng nghiep va n6ng th6n yong thdi ky nin (1980-1999) (d) fk -Ty le thay ddi phat sinh co tac dgng ciia BDKH giai doan tinh toan Chi tieu:/* 50% tdc dpng mgnh Tieu ehi ve eo che chinh sach Chi phi tang them dao tao nang eao nSng lyc quan ly van hanh, tu bao dudng edng trinh co sd tang nong nghiep va ndng th6n tac dgng cua bien doi hau /o = ^^Z^100%; (10) Oe Trong do: Oc- Chi phi cho nhu cau dao tao, nang eao nang lyc, cac chuang trinh phdng chong giam nhe thien tai BDKH xay vimg; Oy- Chi phi cho cac boat dgng tucmg tu thdi ky nen (1980-1999) (d); fo-Ty Ie thay dii phat sinh co tac dgng cua BDKH giai do£m tinh toan Chi tieu: fo 50% tdc dpng mgnh Tieu chi ve chi phi sira chira cdng trinh khac phuc h|iu qua tac dpng ciia tai bien hau Chi phi tang them khde phyc hau qua thien tai bat thudng den he thing cdng trinh ca sd tang ndng nghiep va nong thon ^ = :^^:^^100%; (11) Psc Trong do: Psc- Chi phi eho cac boat dgng khac phyc tac dgng ciia bien doi hau; Pij- Chi phi phong ehong, xu ly ung eiru thien tai, bien doi hau ciia cong trinh i, nam thuj; Pi- Chi phi cho cac boat dpng tuong ty thdi ky nin (1980-1999) (d); fp- Ty le thay ddi phat sinh cd tac dgng ciia BDKH giai doan tinh toan Chi tieu:^ 50% tdc dpng mgnh Gia tri xay dyng quy ddi theo thdi gian ciia nam 2010, de biet chi tiet ban cua cac tieu chi co the tham khao tai lieu [14] KET LUAN Ket qua nghien ciiu budc dau v^ xay dyng tieu chi long ghep tich hgp BDKH vao quy hoach, ke hoach san xuat ndng nghiep cap xa phue vy xay dyng ndng thdn mdi cd the nit mgt sd ket luan, sau day: - Cac ddi tugng cua san xuat ndr^ nghiep la cay trdng vat nudi va moi cay trdng vat nudi ed yeu cau rat khae ddi vdi cae yeu td hau Ddng thdi qua tiinh sinh trudng, phat trien va hinh nang suat cay v$t nudi ludn ehiu tac dgng tryc tiep hoae gian tiep cua cac yeu td hau va thien tai Bdi vay BDKH, NBD se anh hudng rat ldn den cac doi tugng cua san xuat ndng nghiep - Nhixng yeu td hau ve nhiet eac Ioai, lugng mua cac cap, nude bien dang theo viing, ket hgp vdi cac thien tai thudng xuat hien d cac vimg sinh thai se la cac tieu chi dang tin cay de long ghep BDKH vao xay dyng quy hoach, ke hoaeh san xuat ndng nghiep cap xa - Tir cac tieu chi da dugc xay dung de long ghep BDKH cae tac gia da dua budc ciia qua trinh long ghep BDKH vao quy hoach, ke hoach san xuat ndng nghiep cap xa phyc vy xay dyng ndng thon mdi d Viet Nam Ciing Cd the khdng dinh day la phuong phap tiep can thdng minh (khdn ngoan) thieh ung vdi BDKH va giam nhe thien tai ciia nganh Nong nghiep va phat trien ndng thdn thdi ky cdng nghiep hda va hien dai hda dat nude; TAP CHfTAlNGUYEN NUOC SO 4-2014 75 • KHOA HOC CONG NGHE • D6i vol cac ca so tang nong thon: nhiing tieu chi sil dung 16ng ghep BDKH cin dugc xem xet la tac dong ciia BDKH, NBD se lam thay dii tiin dp va thai gian thi cong bi keo dai, lam hu hong va giam tuoi thg cong trinh, tang sau va cuong ngap lut cac cong trinh co so ting nong thon; Tang mii-c pha hai, lam hu hong cong trinh kenh muong ngi ding bao, lii lut xay ra; an mon cac cong trinh ven biin; chi phi xay dung tang, chi phi sira chira tang, Nhin chung day la mgt phan cua mgt tai lieu moi long ghep BDKH vai san xuiit nong nghiep cap xa, rat bo ich cho cac nha quan ly chi dao san xuat Nong nghiep va xay dung co so tang nong thon Trung uong va dia phuang tren buac duong long ghep BDKH vao quy hoach timg doi tugng san xuat Nong nghiep va xay dung ca so tang nong thon mai cap xa doi vol timg vimg sinh thai nong nghiep TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Bg Nong nghiep va Phat trien nong thon (MARD), 2011, Tich hgp biin dii hau vao xay dung, thirc hien chien luge, quy hoach, ki hoach, chuang trinh, du an, di an phat triin nganh nong nghiep va phat trien nong thon giai d o ^ 2011-2015, , Chi thi Bo NN&PTNT si 809/CT-BNN-KHCN 28/3/2011; Bg Nong nghiep va Phat triin nong thon Quyet dinh phe duyet di an phat triin tring trgt din 2020 va tim nhin din 2030 s i : 824/QD-BNN-TT,//d Npi, ngdy 16 Ihdng ndm 2012; Bg Tai nguyen va Mgi trucmg (MONRE), 2008, Chuang trinh muc tieu quic gia ling voi bien doi hau; Bg Tai nguyen va Moi truong (MONRE), 2009, 2012, Kich ban biin dii hau, nuoc bien dang cho Viet Nam s i tay long ghep giam nhe nii ro tham hga va thich ling BDKH vao lap ki hoach phat triin kinh ti -xa hgi cip xa, CCWG, DMWG, Oxfam, Ha Ngi thang Inawm 2011, 62Tr So tay huong dan ling ghep giam nhe rui ro thien tai vao ke hoach phat trien KT-XH cip 76 TAPCHlTAlNGUYeNNLr()CS(54-2014 tinh, cac nganh tai tinh An giang An giang thang 9- 2010, 76 Tr Ting Cue Lam nghiep, 2013, Danh gia tac dgng, xac dinh cac giai phap img pho, xay dimg va trien khai cac ke hoach hanh dgng img vol BDKH ITnh vuc Lam nghiep; Bao cao ting ket de tai cap Bg nam 2013; Truong Dai hgc Thiiy lgi, 2013, Danh gia tac d6ng, xac dinh cac giai phap ung pho, xay dung va triin khai cac ke hoach hanh dgng img vol BDKH cac linh vuc dien nghiep, Thuy lgi.; Bao cao tong ket de tai cap Bg nam 2013; Vien Chan nuoi 2013, Dieu tra, danh gia tac dgng cua BDKH toi chan nuoi va phong trir dich benh, de xuat cac giai phap thich irng; Bao cao tong ket de tai cap Bg nam 2013; 10 Vien Khoa hgc Khi tugng Thiiy van va Moi truang (IMHEN), 2011, Tai lieu huang dan Danh gia tac dgng ciia bien doi hau va xac dinh cac bien phap thich ung, Nha Xuit ban Tai nguyen - Moi trucmg va Ban Viet Nam 11 Vien Khoa hgc Khi tugng Thuy van va Moi truang (IMHEN), 2012, Huong dan ky thuat ve tich hgp van de bien doi hau vao ki hoach phat triin Nha Xuit ban Tai nguyen Moi truang va Ban di Viet Nam 12 Vien Kinh ti va Quy hoach thuy san, 2013, Danh gia tinh trang dl bi tin thuang vol BDKH nong nghiep lam co sa xay dung cac chinh sach va hoat dgng hi trg ; Bao cao ting kit di tai cip Bg nam 2013; 13 Vien Moi truong nong nghiep, 2013 Danh gia tac dgng cua BDKH, xac dinh cac giai phap ling pho, xay dung va triin khai cac ke hoach hanh dgng ling vol BDKH cac linh vuc Ngng nghiep, Thuy san Bao cao ting ket de tai cip Bg nam 2013 14 Vien Nuac, Tuai tieu va Moi truong;2013, Danh gia anh huang cua BDKH den he thing ca sa ting nong nghiep, nong thon va de xuit cac giai phap giam thiiu;Bao cao tong kit de tai cip Bg nam 2013 Phin biin: PGS.TS NGUYEN QUANG TRUNG Vien KHTL Vijt Nam ... hon so vdi nam 2000 tu - 40%; vao nam 2050 la Trong vong hem 40 nam qua (1954-1997) da tir 16-52% va vao nam 2100 la tir 51-85%.; CO 320 can bao va ap thap nhiet ddi anh hudng den Viet Nam Bao thudng... Thien nien ky Viet Nam la mgt cac quoc gia tren the gidi dat dugc cac myc tieu thien nien ky vao nam 2015 Viet Nam da giam ty le ddi ngheo tic khoang 58% nam 1993 xuong 18% vao nam 2006 Tuy nhien... va - Xoay thap Bac Bd nam rieng Ie hoSe ndm dudi nude) eung nhu quy hoach phat trien cae mgt giai thap ed true Tay bac ~ D6ng h^ th6ng thuy lgi d6i vdi timg vimg cu the Nam hoae Dong Tay vat