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1 kinh t v mô bn th nm N. Gregory Mankiw Bài ging ca Phm Th Anh pham.theanh@yahoo.com (dch và sa theo bài ging ca Ron Cronovich) macro © 2002 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved CHNG 17 u t CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 1 Mc tiêu ca chng Mc tiêu ca chng    ! "  ""#$%&'()  *+%,    ""-./01 234& ./01 . CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 2 Các loi u t Các loi u t   5.+$62%& 789+:7)    8 ' ;<,8<=   >.%45?0 6@ A&B$&2.6@ C u t và các thành phn ca nó  M, 1970-2002 -250 0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 T ôla theo giá nm 1996 Total Business fixed investment Residential investment Change in inventories P T P TP T P T P slide 3 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 4   u t c nh kinh doanh u t c nh kinh doanh  DE FG@&HI%0 +   JK6:E& L DMN L () L .B8+$6 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 5 Hai loi doanh nghip Hai loi doanh nghip O,A%P"+$6 QC J.+$67) 2&9+: ,7).&+%&:C RC J.+$6 82A .+$67)C A ST5+$6 I&'2 'C A A S S   T T 5+$6 5+$6     I&'2 'C I&'2 'C 2 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 6 Th trng cho thuê t bn Th trng cho thuê t bn  J.+$6 7)6U% 22C  '"VW J.+$6" 2 '0 DMNX Y C Lng t bn giá thuê t bn thc t, Y cung t bn cu t bn (MPK) giá thuê t giá thuê t bn cân bn cân bng bng CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 7 Các nhân t nh hng n giá thuê t bn Các nhân t nh hng n giá thuê t bn Z 7)J22[ \A DMN ;&+&B Y *2]=  Y *2]- ^ ↓ ;& +:+E)<= ^ ↑ !;& +:+-+*I <B6= ^ ↑ " ;& +: 2E F$ <+_ 2` . 2E= Q # " ! α α − = ( ) Q  $ " !  α α − = = CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 8 Quyt nh u t ca các doanh Quyt nh u t ca các doanh nghip cho thuê t bn nghip cho thuê t bn J.+$6&2 '0aa'6C ba ;&%2= Y AB6 .+$6 aV&$.+$6 7) E&%2C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 9 Chi phí t bn Chi phí t bn J.6562 ^ 6()  ×  A P  X.+c52 ^ 60) δ δδ δ ×  A P δ δδ δ X#$0) ^ d7I.52 − −− − ∆  ;ed.52A ∆  fgA   65  = 4624522E6B CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 10 \&BA 6() X 60) X d 7I. 52 X 46 X Chi phí t bn Chi phí t bn h+: FFF;2 FF= >9  XiQgCgggA  XgAQgA δ δδ δ XgARgA & ∆  Y  XgAgj J6+ c52     δ = + − ∆     δ   ∆ = + −     iQggg iRggg − −− − ijgg %&'(( CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 11 Chi phí t bn Chi phí t bn O,A9 ∆  Y  X π ππ π C J6 +c52 2]&'  ;  k δ δδ δ − −− − π ππ π =X  ; ) k δ δδ δ = &6d522]&' ( )  )  δ + J6d526:E+& ^ .I52 ^ ()d ^ #$0) 3 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 12 Li nhun ca doanh nghip cho thuê Li nhun ca doanh nghip cho thuê Ol5+$66:E&a B ( ) ( ) δ δ − + − +bX X    ) $ )     aB fgA +$6P aB0-  mgA+$6-aB2] . a2C ;\$6 2].0F l= CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 13   u t ròng & tng u t u t ròng & tng u t \&BA ( )( ) δ   ∆ = − +   +X  * $   ) P *  ;= 6.l6 I&'.E0C 4I%0+2n&' lE&'2E6B l2 ( )( ) δ δ δ = ∆ +   = − + +   +   * $   ) CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 14 Hàm u t Hàm u t ed-5 )   -6 2   aB  &    ( )( )  * * $   ) δ δ   = − + +   * ) * R * Q ) Q ) R CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 15 Hàm u t Hàm u t ed-5DMN <d 5  Y    -aB  -" o ()  +%,/ * 6C ( )( )  * * $   ) δ δ   = − + +   * ) * Q ) Q * R CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 16 Thu và u t Thu và u t Z"Uo) 8 QC aBF RC +: Z"Uo) Z"Uo)     8 8 QC QC aBF aBF RC RC +: +: CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 17 Thu Thu nhp Công ty: Thu Thu nhp Công ty: Thu ánh vào li nhun Thu ánh vào li nhun .EI&'6:E&%c&HSaBT ^ B9+:%c5;.V 62=AG0F8C ^ p%c5A60)ap .$52C ^ A%c5B6.69+:.U.05 2C ^   -p/AG%c5B6.6. .U.)66dd52&..U.a BA +&B+$6P,2%.B 0aB 0dd2]0FC ^ \&BAB6F0F00C 4 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 18 Tín dng thu u t Tín dng thu u t (ITC) (ITC)  qJ   65+ $6 Ea)% !F 2  \&BAqJ   E.$U  P -aB&00 C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 19 Tobin Tobin q q  9I .%%/465a 2  rI 6d,a 2( 046a6.   + fQA.+$6  2 ,-.%%/5+$6   + mQA.+$60F 20P lC = >26+ J6p26+ + CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 20 Mi quan h gia lý thuyt Mi quan h gia lý thuyt q q và lý thuyt và lý thuyt tân c in mô t  trên tân c in mô t  trên  >.%/46526:E& aB$"&aB01&o 5a2C  DMNf62A GaBA -.%5+ $6%/46,AH  E.%5 + C  DMN m62A.+$6 !A+&B.%%/465 o A& + )6C = >26+ J6p26+ + CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 21 Th trng c phiu và GDP Th trng c phiu và GDP "P,+d.&H E I U$%/46&>\M QC DEP2U&H0-a B52 ^ 0.46 ^  2 +  ^ +%, 7I+' ^ *I* &H4 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 22 Th trng c phiu và GDP Th trng c phiu và GDP "P,+d.&H E I U$%/46&>\M RC >.46  ^   5EG ^ +%, +37I +' ^ *I* &H4 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 23 Th trng c phiu và GDP Th trng c phiu và GDP "P,+d.&H E I U$%/46&>\M WC ed 5.46P,6 .F7)&H2EF $&-80+"C OH 4&a8 +:-B &' 01&o5 o/C 5 Th trng c phiu và GDP Th trng c phiu và GDP -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Giá c phiu, % thay i so vi 4 quý trc -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 GDP thc t, % thay i so vi 4 quý trc Stock prices Real GDP slide 24 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 25 Nhng ràng buc tài chính Nhng ràng buc tài chính  b*4,%].+ $6P,&< 22)0 &$ P "aB   EI+$66I <&'  ),-. "I &'aHP,& ;<P,E%/=  e.  aB$"C aBa01&oA +$6P,Pa6:C +$66I <&' 2EGP0-o0F, Pa?&I+aB$" )6C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 26   u t nhà  u t nhà   b?8 'A * / A6:E& .I58A  / Y  C   / Y  a7.%28& %/8$"C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 27   u t nhà  c xác nh nh th nào u t nhà  c xác nh nh th nào / J ;= %/8 J&&H8 J&&H8 7.%.*2]&H 7.%.*2]&H 8C 8C J /   ba2 8 >.*2]7.% >.*2]7.%     a8 a8 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 28   u t nhà  c xác nh nh th nào u t nhà  c xác nh nh th nào / J * H J ;= %/8 ;2= J8 ' J /   ba2 8 b? 8 /   CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 29   u t nhà  phn ng th nào vi u t nhà  phn ng th nào vi s gim sút ca lãi sut s gim sút ca lãi sut / J * H J ;= %/8 ;2= J8 ' J /   ba2 8 b? 8 /   6 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 30 Thu nhà  Thu nhà   bBda)6588 2].6s6o ())6C  h$0)V.6+:())6 +cA +&Ba)60" 6.&() )6+cC  DEI0]da)60 &H8U.H&'." 0.  80"%&$+_2`&$ 0)V())6)0P0-C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 31   u t hàng tn kho u t hàng tn kho O O ?0K&0 ?0K&0 Qt Qt >\M >\M A EE. A EE.   ,GA E9d  ,GA E9d  +d 5 +d 5   ?0C ?0C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 32   ng c tích tr hàng tn kho ng c tích tr hàng tn kho QC 0123 \2.+EAH +$6)]&$7)8 E" .4%I0s C N+2. m7)A ?0-C N+2. f7)A?0 C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 33   ng c tích tr hàng tn kho ng c tích tr hàng tn kho RC 4-0123 Z?06s6.+$6" E E.$UC ^ . ra9+: : 2.u ^ .2E6B+da+30 . P ` QC 0123 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 34   ng c tích tr hàng tn kho ng c tích tr hàng tn kho WC )560789 O,. )+02)/ -C RC 4-0123 QC 0123 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 35   ng c tích tr hàng tn kho ng c tích tr hàng tn kho vC ,5:; Z.a& ?0C WC )589 RC 4-0123 QC 0123 7 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 36 Mô hình Gia tc Mô hình Gia tc DE&5 ?0 0F+d 2)01E:, CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 37 Mô hình Gia tc Mô hình Gia tc  N$ < Xa?0 ∆ ∆∆ ∆ < X?0  >% J.+$6 ?0# $ B&'a5o < X β ββ β# A P β ββ β  E I "6 .# $a?0  I 5+$6&'4aC CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 38 Mô hình Gia tc Mô hình Gia tc NU ∆ ∆∆ ∆ < X β ββ β ∆ ∆∆ ∆ # O?0# $ &'d4 5aC ^ Na-A.+$6 -?0C ^ Na A.+$6  ?0C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 39 Bng chng v Mô hình Gia tc Bng chng v Mô hình Gia tc 1982 1991 1974 1971 1977 1975 1980 1983 1993 1998 1984 1997 2000 1999 u t hàng tn kho (t ôla theo giá nm 1996) 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 Thay i ca GDP thc t (t ôla theo giá 1996) -200 -100 300 400 5002001000 = ∆ DUp+ gCR * # CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 40 Hàng tn kho và lãi sut thc t Hàng tn kho và lãi sut thc t  J6E5&$. 0b()P,0 aV+ 2..C  \&BA?06:E& ()dC  h+: b()- Qwxg0 H+$6do&$ 7) &V0%6&H/ A ]    ?0C CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 41 Tóm t t chng Tóm t t chng QC )."H6:E* &( )dC RC J.I +%,   2EF$ -DMN&- I%0+C  ed-+*I -&. 8A& -8C  J..0 ;B6F A+:= 4E 0C 8 CHAPTER 17 CHAPTER 17 Investment Investment slide 42 Tóm t t chng Tóm t t chng WC O E2E6B" );+y 4)=5>\M010+C  +E5&$ 8 DMN&E0I %0+C  +E5B68 A.8&E0 8C  +E5a8 +d0z0F+d0&H ?0C