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VIEN DIA LY VIEN KHOCN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM NGHIEN CUU THU NGHIEM MO HINH LY THUYET DU BAO C\C YUNG CO NGUY CO TRUOT LO DAT TRONG DIEU KIEN VIET NAM (L \\ THI DU CHO HUYEN HUONG HOA, TINH QUAN[.]
VIEN DIA LY VIEN KHOCN VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM NGHIEN CUU THU NGHIEM MO HINH LY THUYET DU BAO C\C YUNG CO NGUY CO TRUOT LO DAT TRONG DIEU KIEN VIET NAM (L.\\ THI DU CHO HUYEN HUONG HOA, TINH QUANG TRI) Ld Thi Thu Hien', Phgm Hd Linh, Pligm Quang Vlnh , Luu The Anh, Vu Thi Klni Dung, Nguyen Thanh Binh, Nguyen Nggc Thiing MO DAU Hien tugng trugt Id dit dugc cho la cd lien quan den mdi quan be giCia khiing lire ciia dit dii hinh thiinh tren sudn ddc ddi \di trgng lire ciia chiing Mdl si,r cd trugt se xay mil ihl can bing ciia mdi quan he dd nghieng ve phia trgng luc Mdi quan he cd thi bj tha\ ddi bdi nhiing tiic ddng tu nhien va ngudi Cac yen Id cd iinh hudng idi sir dn djnh cua sudn ddc \'a cac su cd Irugt la riil da dang va riit khiic nhau, chimg luong liic vdi theo each phirc tap Cac yeu td tu nhien cd the dugc chia niim nhdm: dd ben ciia diil, boa hgc dat, khoiing vat hgc; dja chat; dja mao; thuy \ iin; \ ii mot sd boat ddng kien lao Viet Nam vao miia mua, di kem vdi cac dgt bao lu vii ciie Iran mua Idn, mua lau naa\ thudng xuiit bien tai bien trugt Id diit lu quel va lii bim da dii giiy nhung thiel hai Idn ve ngudi liii siiii vii tan pha canh quan tu nhien tren nhieu khu vuc ddi mii, dac biet d ciic tinh Trung Bd Nam 1999, hdng thiiy xiiy d Trung Bd dii keo theo sir xuiit hien ciia hang loai cdc dgt Id diil da, lu bim da va sal Id diit v.v lam diet 592 ngudi pha liii\ ngiin ngdi nha gay thiet hai khoang 3.720 ty ddng, rieng ddi vdi iigiinh giao thdng thiet hai khoang 460 ly ddng (Uy ban Phdng chdng bao lui) Mien i rung Iriiii biio sd niim 2009 vira qua khdng nhu'ng gay thiet hai ve ngudi va ciia cdn liim te liet nhieu tuyen giao thdng Do vay, viec nghien ciru va tirng budc ban cbe tiic hai ciia trugt Id dtil dang la mot \'an de thdi sir ddi vdi nhieu qudc gia Mdl cac bien phap phi cdng trinh phdng chdng trugt Id dat dang dugc ap di,ing cho cac khu vuc tlurdng xuyen Xciy trugt Id dat la giam sat, du bao va canh bao bien tugng trugt Id dat, dd biin dd ngu\ CO trugt Id dat la ndi dung khdng tbi thilu Tir cudi nhung nam 80 the ky trudc, nhung cdng trinh irng dung he thdng tin dja ly bat diiu dugc sir dung de nghien ciru tai biln va trugt Id dat, da cd nhieu md hinh dugc xaydung de phiin tich va du bao lai biln, dd cd bai md hinh dugc img dung nhieu nhiit la SINMAP vii Trgng so bing chimg SINMAP dugc xiiy dung theo quan diem co ly dat va dja chiit cdng trinh cdn Trgng sd bing chung dugc phiii trien tir phuong phap thdng ke Bai viet trinh biiy kha nang irng dung ciia hai md hinh SINMAP va Trgng so bang chirng ket hgp vdi lu lieu GIS va iinh viln tham xay dung biin dd lai bien trugt Id dat dieu kien Viet Nam, liy thi du tai huyen Hudng Hda, tinh Quang 4i-j Hudng Hda lii huyen mien mii nim phia Tiiy Bic tinh Quang Trj Dja hinh huyen Hudng Hda bi chia cit manh bdi he thdng sdng suoi doc theo sudn Ddng va Tay Trudng Son Mot diing dja hinh chinh d day la dang dja hinh doi mii cao sii'dn ddc ddc phd bien > 5", cao dia hinh tir 500-700m Day la dang dja hinh cd nguy CO tiem cin cho tai biln trugl Id dit Toim tuyIn cd tdng dien tich tu nhien 115.087ha, dd dal vimg tren dii philn set (Fs) chilm dien'tich kha Idn (21.45%) Theo ly tliu>et ihi loai diil niiy cd linh giii' nude cao nen rit dl xay trugt la chiing dugc dal \iio dieu kien thich hgp vc doc Lugng mua binb quiin d Hudng Hda la 2262 mm/nam.^tiip Uung idi 88% lugng mua vao miia mua tir thiing din thiing 11, da thiic day tai bien trugt lo dal diin miia rd ret, dac biet Ciic Iran mua Idn, keo dai Hgi nghi Klioa hgc Dia ly Todn quoc idn thu!5 - Hd Ngi, 2010 VIEN DIA LY - VIEN KHtfCN VIET NA?>i! HOI iSlA LY VIIET NAU tir thiing den lluing 12, dii kim tiing eking ke so lugng diem siit Id diit tren ciic suim mii a khu vuc phia Biic ciia huyen I PHUONG PHAP NGHIEN CUU V/V CAC MO HINH l.l.Piiuong phiip he thong tin dia ly va co so diT lieu Cd sd dii' lieu he thdng tin dja ly phuc \ u chinh giii tai bien trugl Id dal biing md hinh SINMAP vii Irgng sd biing chirng gdm cd cac Idp nhu: dja hinli; tii;i cli;it; dja niiio; dia ebiil thiiy viin; hiiu (ban dd mua); he thdng tluiy viin; thd nhudng; thuc viit; sir dung diit; boat ddng kien tiio (dirt gay); dugc td chirc phan mem ArcGIS tliiinb ciic Idp thdng tin diing vector kem theo bang dd lieu thugc tinh Ldp du' lieu hien trang sat Id thu lluip dugc khu vuc nghien cuu gdm 19 diem sat vdi quy md lir nhd den Idn, nguyen nhan sat Id theo ciic nhii eliuyen mdn ki ciic yen td djii eluit, dja hinh, dja chiit tluiy van vii lap plui thuc v;il Sire tiin plui chu _\eu lii nuit be mat canh liic, miit Idp plui rirng vii cim trd giao thdng 1.2 Cac phuong phsip khac De phuc vi,i cho nhiem vu dii diit ngoiii ciic phuong phiip vien thiim vii he thdng tin dja ly, de liii cdn sir dung mdl sd pluro'ng phap bd Irg khiic nhu: - Phuo'ng phiip phiin Iich dimli giii Idng hgp cac sd lieu vii thdng iin Ihu thiip - Phuong pluip dieu Ira nghien cim tiii lieu - Phu'iTiig phap dieu tra kluio Siit thirc dia vii dac Ciic md hinh toiin thirc nghiem Md hinh Trgng sd bung chiing Md binh trgng sd ba;ig ebu'iig la mdl md hinh lugng hda dua IrC'ii su bien ddi vii td hgp sd lieu / / \ / » ': l.i ho CO 1' GI S Id dal triKrt / \ Hinh I Quv trinh ytly dirng l>dn nguy cir inrtn luildt biing mii hinli Trgng so hiing cluhii^ Hgi nghi Khoa hgc Dia ly Todn qiwc Idn th& - Hd Ngi 2010 881 VIEN DIA LY - VIEN K H « C N VIET NAM HOI DIA LY VIET NAM Trgng sd bing chirng tich cue ciia ldp thu i ciia mot tac nhan j (W*,,) \a trgng sd bins cliims lieu cue cua ldp thu i ciia mdl tac nhan j (W^) dugc tinh toiin theo cdng thuc sau: IV hi P{B/E} II = in P{B/E\ V-^'' W = ln (1) J PIB/E] fi-/;] - In P\B/^\ (2) d-r:) Gia tri the hien sir tuong phan Cij dugc xac djnh va phan anh su ket hgp khdng 2ian giua \eii td bang chung va sir xuiit hien cua sir cd trugt theo phuong trinh: c„ = w,; - w,; (3) Gia trj tuong phiin mang gia trj duong nghTa la sir ket hgp kbdng gian dd co tac ddng tich cue, vii nguge lai Nlur viiy, si,r tuang phan chinh la trgng sd ciia mdi Idp mdi >'eu td nguyen nhan cd anh hudng tdi sij' xuat hien ciia cac su cd trugt Id dit, nghTa ki W,j=C,j Ban dd the hien giii trj nguy co tai bien trugt Id dat vimg nghien ciru dugc tinh biing tdng ciic giii trj tuong phan cua tat ca cac yeu td theo phuo'ng trinh sau: LSI= E C , (4) Quy trinh iip dung vien duim va GIS ket hgp md binb Trgng so bing chimg lap biin dd nguy co trugt Id dat dugc trinh bay hinh Md hinh trgng sd bang chung su dung 12 loai thdng sd dau vao dl tinh loan: Biin dd doc ("); Ban dd phan cit sau (m/km"); Mat ddng chay (km/km'); Mat dirt gay (km/knr); Khoang each tdi cac dudng dirt giiy (m); Ldp phii thuc vat (thdng tin co sd la loai tham phii); Lugng mua trung binb theo thiing (mm); Dja mao (thdng tin co sd la dang dja hinh va dja ddng luc vl cac boat ddng be mat); Dia chat (thdng tin co sd lii ylu to dja ting); 10 Dja chat thuy van (thdng tin co sd la Ciic tang dura nude); 11 Ban dd dit (thdng tin ca sd la loai dit); 12 Giao thdng Cac thdng sd na)' dugc xir ly bing cdng cu GIS trudc dua vao tinb loan md hinh Md hinh SINMAP Dac diem ciia md hinh SINMAP la sii' dung cac thdng so, cu thi la cac dai lugng Idn nhat (max) va nhd nhit (min) dai dien cho mot dien tich be mat nhii djnh Sir dung tiii ca cac thdng sd da tinh, dua vao md binb SINMAP dl tinh loan chi sd dn djnh ciia vung nghien ciru, dd la se cd kit qua tbI hien on djnh ciia mai ddc Viing nao co dg on dinh thap, ddng nghTa vdi vimg cd nguy ca xay trugt Id cao Cdng thuc dn djnh sudn FS: R a TsinO-'/]^^" sinO C+cos0[l-min FS S&2 (8) Hoi ng-hi IGioa hgc Dia ly Todn quoc idn thifS- Hd Ngi, 2010 VIEN DIA LY - VIEN KHtJCN VIET NA M KCI SUA LY VIET MAM Chi sd dd dn djnh SI dugc xiic djnii theo cdng thuc: C,+co.sO|l-mii|x2^,lJr]t, FS,„ (9) sinO Kjch biin lot nhiit C = Ci, x = X|, va = U sc din tdi: C.+cosO|l-min[^>:|-^,lji-]t, FS (10) siiiO Ciic vimg trudng hgp niiy cd giii trj FS > 1, la vimg on djnh Ddi vdi nhiing viing cd giii trj FS < 1, cd the se cd trugt Id Khii niing xiiy trugt lo lii sir bien ddi khdng gian ciia ciie bien sd C, tanO va T Kha nang cdn bao hiim ca yen td thai gian bien R diic trung cho iim ciia diil thay ddi theo thdi gian Tiem niing trugt Id diil dugc phiin theo sir Ihay ddi giii trj ciia chi sd SI li'en CO sd ciic giii trj dn djnh SI lien himb phiin ciip theo giii trj lir Idn den nhd biio gdm: dn djnh; tuong ddi dn djnh; nguy co trugl Id Uuip; nguy co trugt Id trung binh; nguy co' trugt Id' cao; vii nguy ca trugt Id rat cao Cac giii trj phiin khoiing ciia SI dugc quy djnh theo nuic dn djnh ciia sudn (Biing 1) Kel quii ciia phiin ciip dc thiinh lap biin dd nguy co' trugl lo diit Bdng Bdng plidn khoiing cdc gid tri dn dinh SI DiiJii kien Trang thiii du bao SI> 1.5 On djnh L25 dung vien thuin vd GIS de nghien cii-u vd du bdo tai bien lu nhien tinh Hod Binh N.X13 Klii^T [4| Tran Trong Hue, Tran \'an Duo'ng (3/2004) Xdy dung bun du bdo lai bien iriroi la viing hd thuy dien Hod Binh I'iip chi Khoa hgc Triii diit 15] Ken Cilloii, Rick Woolen, Rebecca Latham, Anne Wilt, Tommy Douglas, Stephen Fuemmcier, lenniler Bauer, Joiin Nickcrsou (2007), "Currenl Results of Laudslide Hazard Mapping in ll'estern North Carolina^' from website w \\ w niiislKi 11 edu/,.^ge(.i[ia/ard/ 16|, Heiida, L.E vii T.W Cundy 1990 Predicting deposition of debris flows in inouniciin channels Can Geolech 1.27:409-4 [7] Campbell, R.E ^•a T J Ward 1982 77;c' LSMAP methodology and user's guide fir delineating polential landslides U.S.D.A For Serv., Rocky Mountains I'or Range F'xp Sta IJnpubl Rep [8], J Nichol and M.S Wong (2005) Delection und interpreluion ofiaiidslidcs using satellite images .loiirul of kind degrudulion und development No 16, Pp 243255 (2005) [9] Malcolm W (2002) GIS and remote sensing for naturul hazard assessnieiil ITC ess Hgi nglij Klioa hgc Dia ly Todn quoc idn ihu-5- Hd Noi 201C ... trj lir Idn den nhd biio gdm: dn djnh; tuong ddi dn djnh; nguy co trugl Id Uuip; nguy co trugt Id trung binh; nguy co'' trugt Id'' cao; vii nguy ca trugt Id rat cao Cac giii trj phiin khoiing ciia... co'' trugt Id thiip 0.5