LY LUAN VA THI/C TIEN CHINH TRI Nl/CJC NGOAI ^ TAI mmm mm mm MOI QIJAiV TAM DIA CHINH TRI HANG »AV CUA CAC QUOC «IA PGS, TS NGUYfiN VAN DAN''''** Nhung nam gdn day, cac nha chinh tri va gidi khoa hpc da[.]
LY LUAN VA THI/C TIEN CHINH TRI Nl/CJC NGOAI ^ TAI mmm mm mm MOI QIJAiV TAM DIA CHINH TRI HANG »AV CUA CAC QUOC «IA PGS, TS NGUYfiN VAN DAN'** N nam gdn day, cac nha chinh tri va gidi khoa hpc da danh sy quan tam dac biet den vai trd ciia cdc ngudn tai nguyen thien nhien ddi vdi chien luge ddi ndi va ddi ngoai cua cac nudc Tham chf cd nhimg ngudi cdn phan ddi quan diim chinh trj van boa cua Hantington ve su dung dp giiia cac nen van minh va cho ring tdi nguyen thien nhien mdi la cdi ri cua cdc xung dot dai dang hien chut khdng phai van hod Dja chfnh trj dugc djnh nghTa Id "su tranh gianh giu'a cac dai cudng qudc va giiia nhung dai cudng qudc cd tham vpng ddi vdi viec kiem soat lanh tho, kiem sodt cac ngudn tai nguyen va nhflng vi trf dia ly quan trpng nhu hai cang, kenh dao, ht **' Vien Khoa hoc xa hoi v^ nhan van qu6c gia 88 thdng sdng ngdi, dc dao, cung cac nguon cua cai va ngudn anh hudng khac"*" Nhiing quan diem nhu the cho thdy tr6n thuc te cd tdn tai mdt xu hudng ly thuyet va thuc hanh dia chfnh tri dugc gpi la dja chfnh tri tdi nguyen Nhung tai nguyen cd tdm quan trpng ve dia chfnh trj la nhflng tdi nguyen gi? Trudc het dd la ddt trdng trpt, la nudc nggt, roi den khoang san, dd ddc biet phai ke den ddu md, la mdt nguyen lieu dugc gpi la vang den tii the ky XIX den Trong nhiing ngudn tdi nguyen cua trai ddt thi ddu md dugc coi la quan trgng nhdt, lien quan den sy tdn tai va phdt trien ciia nhieu ngdnh cdng nghiep Vi thd, nd cung trd thdnh mdt nguyen cd gdy tranh chap va xung dot quan trgng nhdt quan ht LYLUAN CHlNH TRI 9-2011 qudc te Thye tl ljch sur da cho thiy ehfnh xung dot va tranh chip diu md la mdt nhung nguyen nhan ciia hai cudc chidn tranh thd' gidi the ky qua Sau ddu md dugc phdt hien d My nam 1859, cdc nudc tu ban bit ddu dd xd di tim thii tdi nguyen quy gia vd di din mdt ket luan quan trpng: trflt lugng dau md ldn nhat la d cdi ndi c6 xua cua nen van minh loai ngudi: khu vuc Ludng Ha Trung Ddng Cac nudc tu ban truyen thdng nhu Anh, Phap, Bd Dao Nha, Tay Ban Nha, Ha Lan ciing vdi Hoa Ky deu nhanh chdng cho ddi cac cdng ty khai thdc ddu md ldn d nhieu noi tren the gidi Mac dii cdc khu vuc ddu md khdng phai la trung tam quyen luc chinh tri cua the gidi, nhung chiing lai cd y nghia nhu la siic manh chi6'n luge quan trpng phuc vu cho cac khu vuc dau nao dja chfnh trj Chinh vi the ddu md da khdng it ldn trd ngudn goc cua cdc cudc xung dot Ddu md da trd thdnh mdt bdi quan trpng nen ngoai giao qudc te ke tit dau the ky XX Ca nhung nudc san xuat ldn nhimg nudc tieu thu ddu md deu phai quan tam den chinh sach dau md va khia canh chfnh trj ciia ddu md, lam xudt hifn mdt linh vuc dugc ggi la chinh trj ddu md Tren the gidi, cac khu vuc cd tru lugng ddu md ldn hdu hdt ndm d "the gidi thdt ba" De gianh quyen kiem sodt cdc md ddu, cac nudc de qudc da sir dung nhirng bien phdp chfnh tri quan su de dp dat dudng Idi ciia mmh cho cdc nudc sd hihi ddu md, trudc LY L U A N CHlNH TR! - 2011 hdt la ngan chan viec qud'c hiiu hod cua cdc nudc dd Iran, Veneduela va Irdc la nhung trudng hgp di^n hinh Irac, nudc cd trii lugng ddu md ldn thii hai the gidi, da phai chiu mdt cudc xam luge ciia Hoa Ky nam 2003 dudi cai cd chdng khung bd, de de'n nam 2005, dudi tdc ddng ciia Hoa Ky, Hidn phdp Iric da phai bao dam mdt vai trd chir ydu cho cac cdng ty nudc ngoai To chiic Diin dan Chfnh sach Toan cdu da khang dinh ring ddu md Iric chinh la "dac diem trung tam cua canh quan chinh tri" d day Hi6n nhieu nudc da bit dau sir dung nhien lifeu sinh hpc di thay the cho ddu md: dd la nhi6n lieu ethanol dugc san xudt tur mia va ngd, dung de thay the cho xang ddu Ngudi ta cho bie't ring tit nam 2003 de'n 2006, nhien lieu ethanol d Braxin da thay the 40% miic tieu thu xang ddu cua nudc Nam 2005, Thuy Dien cung cdng bd cdc ke hoach du djnh de'n nam 2020 se chdm diit su phu thudc cua nudc vao ngudn nhien lieu hod thach'^l Tuy nhien, cudc khung hoang luong thuc todn cdu nam 2008 da canh bdo cho thd gidi vi nhung nguy co gay mdt an ninh luong thuc tinh trang dung luong thye dl san xudt nhien lieu sinh hpc Cho nen, tuong lai chua xdc djnh, ddu md vdn la ngudn nhien lieu va nguy6n lieu bao dam sy sd'ng cdn cho cac nganh cdng nghiep quan trpng cua cdc qudc gia Vi the, nhflng nudc ldn nhu Hoa Ky ludn tim edch tri su anh hudng cua minh d nhung nudc sd huu ddu md ldn nhu Ardp Xeiit, Cdoet, Iric 89 Mdt diiu dang qua tam la trudc xay cudc td'n cdng cua Hoa Ky vdo Irac ndm 2003, nhiing du an khai thac dau md khdng the thuc hidn dugc mdi trudng chinh tri Iiic dd, Iric chiu su tritag phat kinh td' Lien hgp qudc dp ddt Nhung neii lenh trufng phat dugc dd bd va chd hien hanh vdn dugc tri, thi toan bd ngudn du trii dau md khdng Id chua dugc khai thdc ciia Irdc se rgi vao tay cdc cdng ty ngoai Hoa Ky Khi dy, cdc cdng ty cd the ban ddu cho Hoa Ky hoac khdng, hay hp cd thi dung ddu md Idm quan bdi chinh tri Dii the ndo thi cung khdng the cd dugc su dam bao rang hg se ddp ung nhu cdu nang lugng tuong lai ciia Hoa Ky Rd rang, edch nha't de ngan chan dieu dd xay la sip dat mdt su "thay ddi che do" d Bagda va thie't ldp mdt chfnh phu cd kha nang buy bd cac hi6p dinh ndi tren Tuy nhien, chang cd vi quan chiic cap cao nao vien ddn diiu dd Iam ly cho cudc xam luge Irdc Lam nhu the thi se ddnh mdt di su tfn nhidm cdn Iai cua chinh quyen Bush d ehdu Au vd Trung Ddng Nd cung se gay su phan dd'i d chfnh nudc My rang, ngudi ta nghi ngd viec dem xuong mdu de ddi Idy ddu md Nhung chic chin la Nha Trang cd y thiic rdt rd ve tinh hinh ddu md d Iric va nhiing vdn di nd dat cho viec thuc hien cdng chie'n luge nang lugng dai ban ciia chinh quyin Bush Chi cd chie'm ddng Iric va lap mdt chinh phu mdi thi Hoa Ky mdi tm chic rang nhiing vdn di dd se dugc khac phuc Bdn canh Hoa Ky, Trung Qud'c cung la mdt cudng qud'c nhdp khiu lugng ddu md 90 Idn Trung Qudc khdng tim kiem ddu md tur Trung Ddng vd ehdu Phi nhu each cua Hoa Ky Nhung Trung Qudc dang rd't cd y thiic ve vai trd sd'ng cdn cua ngudn "vang den" d hai khu vuc Hidn tai, ddu md dang trd muc tidu dia chie'n luge cd tdm quan trgng hang ddu cua Trung Qud'c Neu nhu each day hon 20 nam Trung Qud'c cdn la nudc xudt khiu ddu md Idn nhdt Ddng A, thi ngdy Trung Qud'c lai Id mdt qudc gia nhap khau ddu md Idn nhdt the gidi Diiu da gdp phdn quan trpng lam thay doi cue dien dia chfnh tri the gidi, dac biet la d chau Phi Cuu ngoai trudng Trung Qudc Dudng Gia Triin tiing ndi: "Ngoai giao cua Trung Qud'c the ky XXI se la ngoai giao ddu md" Chfnh vi the ma ngudi ta da ndi chfnh sdch ngoai giao cua Trung Qud'c la "ngoai giao vdt ddu loang" Dac biet la Trung Qud'c da chuyen tut chinh sach "nhdp khiu ddu md tut bdn ngodi" sang "khai thdc ddu md bdn ngoai"*^\ Trong dd, nhiing nudc cd ngudn dtr trii ddu md Idn cung cd ging sii dung nd nhu mdt ddn biy chid'n luge trdn vu dai chfnh tri qudc td' Nudc Nga tii Putm Idn nam quyin da trdi ddy dugc mdt phdn la nhd ddu md Vide chau Au phu thudc vao khf ddt cua Nga da trd mdt bdi ngoai giao ciia nudc Nga trdn ban cd chfnh tri chau Au va khien cho phuong Tay phai e ngai Ddu md cung giiip cho Iran thoat dupe cdc ddn trtog phat cua Lien hgp qudc vdn di hat nhan, nhieu nudc phuong Tay vdn phu thudc vao ngudn cung cdp ddu md cua nudc Dii rdt mudn trimg phat Iran vi vdn di hat nhan, nhung cac cudng LY LUAN CHlNH TRI 9-2011 qudc phuong Tdy va mdt sd nudc ban gidm ddc Co quan Nang lugng Nguyen ttr Qudc td' (L\EA) - la nhiing nudc it nhieu diu phai nhap khiu ddu md cua Iran rdt ngai sir dung bien phdp cdm van dau md, vi ne'u Iam thd', gid ddu se tang va Idm phuong hai dd'n nin kinh td' cua hp Vdnddudla ludn la cdi gai d phia Nam dd'i vdi Hoa Ky vi lap trudng ciing rin ciia tdng thdng Hugo Chavez phan dd'i chii nghla bd quyin cua Hoa Ky The nhimg nudc Iai la mdt bd'n qud'c gia hang ddu cung cap ddu thd cho Hoa Ky Chfnh diiu dd da phdn nao giai thfch cho thdi dp Cling ran cua dng Chavez ma Hoa Ky khdng cd edch nao trimg phat dugc quyin va khdng chd ciia cdc cdng ty ddu md phuong Tay Vi mat siic manh chinh tri ciia ddu md, nha bdo My ndi tid'ng Thdmat Phrimen khang dinh: "Vdi tdt ca su kfnh trpng danh cho Rdnan Rigan, tdi khdng tin ring dng dy la ngudi da lam lun bai dugc Lien bang Xdvid't Rd rang, trdn thuc td' cdn cd nhiiu yd'u td khde, nhung gid ddu toan cdu sut giam vdo khoang cud'i thap nidn 80, ddu thap nidn 90 cua thd' ky XX la yeu td then chd't ddn de'n su sup dd cua Lidn Xd (Khi Lidn bang Xdvid't chfnh thiic tan vdo Gidng sinh nam 1991, gid mdt thiing ddu dao ddng d mute 17 USD)."