Phiim Thi Thanh Mai vo Dig Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE 102(02) 123 128 NGHIEN c i r u LU''''A CHON PHUONG PHAP QUY HOACH NANG LU''''ONG CHO HE THONG DIEN VIET NAM Pham Thi Thanh Mai '''' '''' , Nguyen VTnh Thuy''''[.]
Phiim Thi Thanh Mai vo Dig Tap chi KHOA HOC & CONG NGHE 102(02) 123- 128 NGHIEN c i r u LU'A CHON PHUONG PHAP QUY HOACH NANG LU'ONG CHO HE THONG DIEN VIET NAM Pham Thi Thanh M a i ' ' , Nguyen VTnh Thuy' Tnr&ng Dgi hgc Kinh le A- (Juan In Kinh doanh DH Thai A i-uveii 'Tnr&ng Dgi hge Ky ihual Cong nghiep - DII Thai :\!:uven TOMTAT Toi uu phit trien he thong dien phai nghien cuu can bing nang lupng tong the va dac diem ciia nguon nSng lupng so cap, ciia nhu cau phu tai giai doan khao sat Cac mo hinh linh loan phat trien nSng lupng thudng dugc xay dimg v^ ap d^lng a cic nirdc cong nghiep phii trien, de ap dung cho cac nude dang phat trien cin phai nghien ciiu thay dli cho phii hup Bai bio sS he thong lai cac phuong phip quy hoach nSng lupng da duoc sii dung d nuoc ta, so sanh, dinh gia va de xuat sir dung mo hinh phii hap la mo hinh Quy hoach n5ng lupng Viet Nam; ung dung mo hinh vdi nhO'ng dO lieu dugc bo sung, cap nhai de xac djnh ca cau cic nguon dien va cong sual phit toi uu cho tirng nguon Til' khoa: Quy hoach ndng lirong, Idi uu ngudn ndng luang ldi lao DAT VAN DE De danh gia mue anh hudng cQng nhu kha nang cung cap nang lugng (NL) tuong lai cua mgt nude chung ta can nghien cuu nhieu giai phap tu chien luge, chinh sach den cac cong nghe, co giai phap nghien ciru su dung eac mo hinh phii hgp de tinh loan qua trinh phat trien nang lugng danh gia hieu qua ben vCrng Viec nghien ciru phuong an long the khai thae va su dung hgp ly cac nguon nang lugng cho phat dien la bai loan loi uu phat trien he thong nang lugng so cip dien nang la nang lugng thu cap dugc san xuat tu cac dang nang lugng so cap khac nhu than, dau, khi, thiiy nang, nang lugng hat nhan, nang lugng tai tao (NLTT), Cac nguon dien khac cd nang luc khac ve ky thuat - cong nghe va co kha nang dap ung khac nhirng thay doi ciia phu tai vdi hieu qua kinh tl khac Nhu vay, toi uu phai trien he thong dien vua phai lien hanh nghien euu can bang nang lugng long the cho tuong lai, vira phai chii y den dac diem ciia nguon nang luang so cap va dac diem ciia nhu cau phu tai giai doan khao sat NghTa la tim mgt ca cau nguon hgp ly ve phin eong suat va vj tri dat nha may, co tinh din cac dac tinh lam viee ciia chiing, cho cimg vao lam viec he thong, TQI: 0912 804979 Email phamthanhmail979@yahooci chimg dap ung dugc mgi yeu cau cua ho lieu thu ve cong suat, dien nang va cac dac tinh bien thien ciia thi phu tai vdi chi phi dau tu toan he thong dien la nho nhat Hau het cac mo hinh tinh loan phat trien nang lugng thudng dugc xay dyng va dugc sir dung d cac nude cong nghiep phat trien Tuy nhien, de ap dung eac phuong phap cho cac nude dang phat tnen can phai nghien ciru thay doi cho phii hgp vdi cac dac diem ve nguon nang luong, mirc phat trien kinh le - xa hgi ciia moi nude Hien co nhieu mo hinh va phan mem nghien euu phat trien he ihong nang lugng dugc du nhap vao nude la Moi phuong phap co nhirng uu nhugc diem va dac diem rieng dugc tom tat bang I Khao sat cac phuang phap tren cho thay phuong phap mo hinh Quy hoach nang lugng Vipt Nam Vien Khoa hgc Nang lirgng (KHNL) thugc Vien Khoa hpc va Cong nghe Viel Nam mdi nghien cuu \a\ dyng dua vao cac dac tinh cua nguon phat va dudng day Iruyin tai rit phii hgp vdi dieu kien thuc te he thong dien Viet Nam Ddy Id phdn mem nhdm tde gid duae Vien KHNL ilc nghi sir dung de chav thir nghiem phien bdn mdi nhdm dira kit qud vd dong gop y kien cho Vten hodn thien ehuang tnnh han Cong cu nghien cuu bang phan mem dugc su dung de dang thuan tien vdi du lieu Idn chay tren moi Irudng 123 Pham Thi Thanh Mai iY> O/g Tap chi KHOA HQC la mgl phuang phap kha phii hgp cho (,)u> hoaeli he thong nang lugng \ icl Nam giai dogn ldi GIOI THIEU MC) I l i N I I NANG LUQNG Vll.-T QUY HOACH NAM (nao dicn cu:i chuu'n^ ( r i i i h Hinh Giao dien cua chuang trinh Biinti Ddc dicm cua cdc phuong phdp quy hogch ndng luang [3], [5] [6] [7] riMinn- I FOM phap ^.^\ Cong ding Chau Au Toi uu hoi cung cau NL Thual toan Sian quy hoach Ket qua Quy hoach tuyen tinh Dai han 20-30 nim Phuong i n toi uu Khao sat moi tru'dng B A L A N f I LI'-ISl'S LP MI-:SSA(.[ trong MAKK.\L LINPEP RTIl STK\TE(;rST • Vuong I Quoc Anh Toiuu Can bang hoa cung cung-cau cau NL Dai han Dai han hoa Toi uu Toi uu cung cung cau hoa nguon cau NL dien TOI UU Dai han Quy '"y*"""'' hoach vaQuy dpng hogch (Benman) nguyen Khong •ng So luge Toi uu hoi cung cau NL Quy hoach dpng Quy hoach tuyen tinh Dai han 20-30 nam Khong Co thong C6, Ihong qua HMT qua HMT Toi uu hoa nguon dien Dai han Phuong an' Phucmg Phuong an „, - ; • Phuong Phirong i n 101 uu phii i n toi uu cm doi , ; '=' trien he toi uu nguon thdng NL dien Khong Qu> hoach NLViet Nam Viet Nam Can bang Quy dieu Ouj hoach hoach kien han • tinh tuyen tuyen linh' che Cd Khao sit thong • kinh te qua HMT Khaos^t So luge NLTT WASJ' Phuong in loi uu Phucmg an toi , phit trien uu nauon dien he thong NL Khong Cd, thong Cd, thong Co, thong qua qua HMT , qua HMT HMT So luac , Khong So luge Phgm Thi Thanh Mai vd Dig Tap chi KHOA HQC & CONG NGHH 102(02) 123- 128 Ham m u c tieu ciia m o hinh N \ m, K , , \ \ l, K I , z = I ^ s CL -A Pi k - pjt.,.1 *i:i:i: C'„.A p ; -(i - r,„ - p)t„: Trong do: N' so niit I,: s l nhi miy dien d niit j m,: s l n h i miy dien o niil i K: s l bac phu lii niil i Pni: Ty le dipn tu diing cua nha may m Pi: T\ le dien lu diing ciia nha miy I tniK- dai lam viec ciia nhi may m lai bac cong suat K liK dp dai l^m viec ciia nhi miy lai bac cong sual K AP„nK: gi^ trj cong suil gia tang ciia nhi miy (NM) m, lai niit i, bac K AP||K: gia tri cong suit gia tang ciia NM lien vung chuyen tu mil j den niit i, bac K Ydj: ty le ton ihal truyin lii tren du^ng day r" ^-"'I'f : suat chl phi tinh loin cua NM m dat tai niit i, cung cap dien cho bgc phy tii K ciia chinh mil i C- jiK suat chi phi linh toan ciia NM lien viing dit tai niil j , cung cap dien cho bac phu lai K ciia niit i So lieu dau v i o iJIZlT,, r ^w.* » Can cii vao Quy hoach dien VI1 [1] va tai lieu Vien KHNL cung cip [2], [4], [5] cac dCt lieu ""•'^ duoc nhap vao mo hinh nhu sau: Hinh Sd lieu cdc nguon diin Hmh So lieu dtf bao nhu cau t^^g^^t^ffffpltlf/ll/lll^^ ih^cdioiditm rheijnim Thecpqiadian Thing ii| Tar su^t thuy ilSn PhacTig ar[ chon • ^J^Q ^ c d sci Co ke them che dp -in^ f^e + MU Tinh t o ^ n Hinh Sd lieu mdu biiu dten hinh NSm Thoat Hinh S Gia thiet cua md hinh j Pham Thj Thanh Mai vd Dig Tap chi KHOA HQC & CONG NGHE KET QUA TINH TOAN 102(02): - 128 KrioLAniiiBiEnWimLuA ri4ivnuni;o;«,i"A[>i»DiCtiioTii liti^riuilu t-!K«>t;Mt| l.tiplirpid ji'iKmicM'si'iiiiM.iDir'j Hinh ') Phu biiu phu tat Mien Trung Hinh Du hdo nhu cdu sir dung dl^n KLTgHPIIlBlILWlPlll nsipiii6,-i5i:o p ^ i ^ j n i i i i * B i l l EX I r , NO SLUT NOA\ f)l£N HDJH /-N I II Hinh Mdu cdng sudt ngdy dien hinh Hinh 10 Phu biiu phu tai Miin Xam Hinh Phu bieu dd phu tat Miin Bdc Hinh I I Phu hieu dd phu tdi loan qudc Pham Thi Thanh Mai vd Dig Bing Tap chi KHOA HQC & CONG NGHE 102(02): 123 - I 28 Co' cdu ldi irucdc nguon cho phdt diin theo gid ngdy diei Phtrefng dn Co s 'y, ikn suil ''q 3/3/2013 thfing 11 n a m 2020 B a n g kSt qud Iinh to^n Gitr T6na cs CSU.B C S M.T CSMN Nhapkh BaMs HuolQu ang quano BanL.a TDNBa chlAfi Pim 1633 280 520 342 320 210 2S449 9640 2518 1C0Q2 0 0 o 0 27771 A 9622 2456 15601 0 0 0 lai 27498 9601 2447 15451 0 Q 0 * 27699 9709 2513 15478 0 0 0 330117 !0eQ9 2831 1649Z o 0 0 S 35276 13454 3517 18307 • Q 0 0 ' 3G423 14259 3464 18680 0 0 o 0 41663 1S631 3B57 22176 0 0 0 0 S 4367S.4 leoas 4027 23S&1 0 0 1388 93 865 10 47041 1719S 2S 25218 0 295 69 3102 320 210 191 11 -17S92fl 18706 4603 24524 • 28Q 520 342 320 210 181 0 12 4C703 15522 3752 21429 0 0 13 4C040 14346 3571 22123 0 Q 0 o 1* 417507 14B47 3670 23244 0 0 0 15 43301G 15544 3901 23857 0 0 a IB 45422 iBoas 4356 24 Q 0 138 S3 8S5 IT 50275G 19920 5245 25112 a 269 520 342 320 210 161 0 IB 53861 21770 5486 26606 966.67 280 520 342 320 210 181 19 S3 4 G 21291 5470 2GG86 487 73 280 520 342 320 210 161 20 513OB0 19876 5360 2e072 280 520 342 320 210 181 21 46 9 174B1 4767 24551 97 481 3102 320 210 181 0 2? 41263 14S25 4065 223&3 0 0 o 23 353S3 12409 3237 19748 • 0 0 24 31256 1(^29 M02 17426 c 0 0 T ^ g E 1454.4 1497.6 337S79 2330-4 2517 16S6 1440 E-Ngay 1454 1497.6 3376 2330.4 2517 1656 1440 (teltaE 0 -0 01 o 0 Sau nap chuang trinh, phan mem xuat mpt khoi lugng ket qua thong qua cac bang bieu, bieu do, thi cho tirng khu vuc va toan quoc ung vcfi lirng kich ban phat trien khac nhau, tucmg ung vai moi thang dien hinh cho moi miia nam la thang 1, 5, va 11 va lua chon cong suat phat phu hpp nhat eho tirng nguon phat dien tuong ii'ng vao moi gia vai tan suat 50% hay 90% Tuy nhien, khuon kho bai viet khong the trinh bay h6t k^t qua nhom nghien ciiu tinh loan duoc ma chi dua mot so ket qua ca ban tren day (nhu'ng nghien ciru tiep theo duoc nhom tac gia trinh bay diy dii han bao cao de tai nghien ciru khoa hoc cap Oai hoc "Nghien ciiu phuang dn toi tru hod cdc nguon cung cdp ndng lugng ddp img nhu cdu vdi tham chieu dgc biet ve tiem ndng cua ndng luffng tdi tgo a Viet Nam".) Nhu vay, vai sir cap nhat \a bo sung du' lieu k^t qua cua chuang trinh da tinh loan den su tham gia ciia NLTT, dien hat nhan va dien nhap Day la mpt diem mo'i so voi nhOng ket qua nghien ciru truoc day ciia Vien KHNL KET LUAN VA KIEN NGH! Phucmg phap, phan mem Quy hoach nang luong Viet Nam da dugc sir dung tinh toan nhim lua chon cong suat lap may cho nha may thiiy dien San La, Lai Chau dua tren so lieu ciia Quy hoach dien VI [5] Tuy nhien, chua xel den tiem nang va kha nang Pham Thi Thanh Mai vd Dtg Tap chi KHOA HQC & CONG NGHE khai Ihac nguon NLT I rat lan a mde la, d^c biet la thiiy dien nho va nang lugng gio, dong thoi chua cn de cap dC-n ngudn nang lugng hat nhan thuc tfi nude la dang \ri\' dung va se dua \ao sir dung Ihtri gian tdi; lugng di^n phai nhap khiiu hang nam Do vay, vai nhung dii' lieu duge cap nhat va bii sung ciia de tai thi kel qua linh loan lri:n dfi> la mgl can cir v;i la ngudn lai li^u tham khao quan trgng Irong \icc dS xuil eae chinh sach nang lugng, chiiin luo'c quan tipng \a li,i'a chpn cong nghp, co ciu phai dicn hgp ly eiia nude ta nham phai trit^n loi itu he ihong nang luong eiia Viel Nam hicn iui_\ va Irong luong lai Tu\ nhiC'ii, Irong qua trinh sir dung phan mem na\, nhdm tac gia nhan thay ehuang Irinh se dem lai hieu qua cao han nua va day sc la mgl cong cu hd trg dac lire qua irinh quy hoach phat tri^n he Ihdng nang lugng nude la cd uu the han so \ai cac phan mem ngoai nhap khac neu nhu thudng xuyen duoc cap nhap, va loi, vi dii: - Phin mem chi chay dugc tren mdi trudng Windows Vista, - Cac ngudn nang lucrng bi gidi han ve sd luong Neu bd sung ngudn vuot qua gidi lian thi chuong trinh dua ket qua khdng chinh xac - Ap dung rdng rai vdi nhieu nguon nang lugng lai lao khac nhu: gid, mat trdi 102(02): 123-128 sinh khoi, thuy dien nhd, sinh hgc , , moi ngudn cd eac thdng sd ky thuat, cdng nghe khac - D^r bao nhu ciu tieu ihu nang luang den nam 2030 nhung kk qua tinh toan ve phu tai, co ciu nguon phat mdi chi dirng lai d nam 2020 TAI LIEU THAM KHAO [11 Bp Cong thuang, 201 - Quy hoach ph^l triln Di^n l\rc Quoc gia giai doan 201 I - 2020, c6 xet din nam 2030 (Quy hoach di^n VII) [2) B$ Cong thuang, 2008 - Du thao quy hoach ph^l irien NLTT Viet nam giai dogn 2009-2025 [3] PGS.TS Bill Huy Phiing - Phucmg phdp linh lodn loi uu phai tri^n ben vQng he ihdng nSng lugng ~ Nxb Khoa hpc va KT ihual - 2011 [4] PGS TS Bui Huy PhCing - Vien KH va CNVN •'Nghien cuu phucmg &n tdng ih^ khai thae va sir dung hop ly cdc ngudn NL Vict Nam" Chuong trinh trpng di€m BCN giai doan 2001 -2005 [5] Vien Khoa hpc Nang lugng - Vien Khoa hoc vh Cdng nghe Viet Nam "Nghien ciru tdng quan va dinh hudng phat trien he thong n5ng luong Viet Nam" 8/2007 [6] Fnegy Enviroment Planning in Developing Countries: Methodological Guide EFOM-ENV ESCAP&AIT 1995 [7] ENPEP user manual, IAEA document, 1996 SUMMARY RESEARCH ON CHOOSING A PLANNING ENERGY METHOD FOR VIETNAM POWER SYSTEM Phiim Thi Thanh Mai' , Nguyen Vinh Thuy' 'College of Economics and Business Ulminiiration - TW 'College of Tecimology - TNU Optimal developmeni of the power system has lo be researched in the overall energy balance and the characteristics of the primary energy sources, load demand in the period of survey The models of calculation energy developmeni is often built and used in the developed industrial countries To apply for ihe developing countries, il needs lo study the appropriate changes, the structure of power and optima! transmission power for each source This paper synthesizes the energy planning methods were used in our country, compare, evaluate and propose the suitable model should use in Viel Nam is Vielnam energy Planning; using model wilh updated and added dala to determine and recommend the structure of power sources and the optimal generating capacity for each source Keywords: energy planning, optimize, renewable energy source idy nhdn bdi 01/3/2013 ngdyphdnbien 15/3/2013, ngdy duyel ddng-26/3/2013 Tel 0912 804979 Emad phamthaniwuul979hiyaho< 128 ... NL dien TOI UU Dai han Quy ''"y*"""'''' hoach vaQuy dpng hogch (Benman) nguyen Khong •ng So luge Toi uu hoi cung cau NL Quy hoach dpng Quy hoach tuyen tinh Dai han 20-30 nam Khong Co thong C6, Ihong... Phucmg phap, phan mem Quy hoach nang luong Viet Nam da dugc sir dung tinh toan nhim lua chon cong suat lap may cho nha may thiiy dien San La, Lai Chau dua tren so lieu ciia Quy hoach dien VI [5]... bieu, bieu do, thi cho tirng khu vuc va toan quoc ung vcfi lirng kich ban phat trien khac nhau, tucmg ung vai moi thang dien hinh cho moi miia nam la thang 1, 5, va 11 va lua chon cong suat phat