Nghien cdu khoa hgc ^hditti 02 nam 2015 2 PHUOfNG PHAP NGHIEN ClTU 2 1 Md hinh hda xam nhap man 2 1 1 S6 lieu thuc te va tinh toan so lieu a Ngudn sd lieu thuc te Sd lieu la sd lieu vl mye nude biln,[.]
Nghien cdu khoa hgc ^hditti 02 nam 2015 PHUOfNG PHAP NGHIEN ClTU 2.1 Md hinh hda xam nhap man 2.1.1 S6 lieu thuc te va tinh toan so lieu a Ngudn sd lieu thuc te Sd lieu la sd lieu vl mye nude biln, lupng mua vd nude thuong ngpt ngudn dupe d trgm ' quan trie Ganh Hdo vd Phude Long b Xif li vd tinh todn sd lieu Tit bdng sd lieu dugc chiing tdi xir li cho sd li?u ghi tren file excel tir ndm 2010 den nam 2020 Hinh I: So li?u dd dugc tinh todn tic ndm 1992 din ndm 2012 2.1.2 H$ 50 m9n - ngpt * H? sd man/ngpt: I Sdng hoac kenh dupe chia cii khodng 5km thyc te sS mang he sd H? sd m^n thi vimg gan ' sdt bien he sd cang cao vd gidm dan di vdo sau npi ddng Sdng cd he sd cao vi ldng song j rong, lupng nude nhieu va van tdc chay cao Cdn cdc kenh thi nhd hep, lupng nude it, van tdc chay • thdp nen cd he so thap ban He sd ngpt thi viing gdn phia sdng Hau he sd edng cao va gidm dan di xudng va hudng bi6n Song cd h6 s6 cao vi long s5ng rdng, lupng nude nhiSu va van toe chay cao Cdn cac kenh thi nhd hep, lupng nude it, van tdc chay thap nen ed he sd thap hon Hinh 2: He so m^n/ngpt xdy dung THONG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DUC Nghien cClu l&ioa hoc ^wwuntf j£ iiaiii '£ui:y 2.1.3 Phirong trinh dd man cho md hinh Phucmg trinh dp man cho mo hinh nhu sau: y=hx- Swxs Fwxf+R Trong dd: ^ Sw la myc nude bien thiiy trilu Ien trung binh Uong thdng (m) -^ Fw la luu lupng nude ngpt thuong ngudn dd vl trung binh thdng (mVs) ^ R\k lugng mua trung binh thang (mm) -^ / la he sd ngpt vd s la he sd man •^ h = 1/1.1% la hang sd quy ddi mdn Ap dyng edng thiic tren vao md hinh hien tai, ta cd nhdn xet: + Vao nhihig thdng khd, lugng mua it, nude bien di vao sdu hon nen dp man tdng + Vao nhflng thdng mua, lupng mua cao, nude lu dd ve nen dp man giam 2.1.4 U'ng dyng GIS xdy dyng cac mo hinh Xay dyng h$ thdng sdng va sd li?u vl he sd m^ngpt tren ban dd tinh B ^ Lieu Hinh 3: Gdn cdc tdc tic xdy dung he thong sdng ngdi 2.2 LIP trinh gama Qua trinh md phdng dugc thirc hien tren nen cong cu GAMA.[8,9,10,11,12,13,14] vdi budc ddu tien Id nap dO li$u ban dd tinh Bac Li6u (dia ly, he thdng sdng ngdi, he thdng edng) dupe xdy dyng tir GIS [17,18] Tiep theo phdi khai bao lay cdc trudng tir dii lieu GIS Tgp tin ed cac sd lieu v€ thdng tin ban dau vao co sd dii lieu dau vao la dp man - ngpt da tinh toan dupe nap vdo Sau dd phdi khai bdo cdc trudng tuong img vdi cac bien de tinh todn THdNG TIN KHOA HOC GlAo DUC I Nghien cCIU Ichoa hgc Dinh nghia eae bien cae tac tii dd dugc dua vdo vd sii dung ttr eae trudng tir dii lieu GIS vd co sd dii Ii6u ddu vdo Chuyen phuong trinh md hinh xam nhap man dd tinh thdnh giai thuat phuong trinh eu the cita lap trinh vdi cac thdng sd la cac biln dugc lay tir GIS vd co sd du lieu de eho kdt qud la gia trj cua miie ngap ling Tinh todn vd gdn mdu bing cdch tao hanh ddng td mdu giai thuat cua phuong Uinh dd tinh todn eho gid tri cho miie ngap ling, tien hanh gdn gid tri man cho khoang gid tri ciia miie ngjip ung Diu biln thi la xuit eae kit qua diu cho md phdng mua gdy ngap ling KET QUA VA THAO LUAN Qua bang thdng ke, vdi miic dd man trung bmh qua eae thang Uong ndm 2011,2015 vd 2020 Trong miia khd, thdng cd miic dp man cao nhit luong mua it, khd ban, nude bien di vdo sau hon, ldm dien tich dp mdn ldn hon g/l chiem ti le cao Miia mua, thdng nude Iii ve nhi^u nen dp m^n gidm manh, luong nude ngpt vd lupng mua cao ldm dien tich dp man ldn hon g/l gidm xuong Kit qud md phdng tinh tr^g xdm nh^p m|n (miic trung binh) cho ndm 2011 Hinh 4: Md phong tinh trgng xdm nh^p mgn vdo thdng ndm 2011 Tuong ty, ta cd kit qud md phdng tinhfrangxdm nh|lp m$n (miic trung binh) cho nam 2015 vd thdng cao nhit Id: Hinh 5: Md phdng tinh trgngxdm nhgp mdn vdo thdng ndm 2015 THdNG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DVC Nghien cClu l(hoa hgc Ket qui mo phong ttah trang xam nhap man (mile trung binh) cho nSm 2020 va thang cao nhit la: Hinh 6: Mo phong tinh trang xdm nhap man vao thang nam 2020 Cung nam 2020, qua ket qui mo phdng, ta thu dupe kk qua thing c6 mile dp nhiem Hinh 7: Md phdng tinh trang xdm nhdp m^n vdo thdng nim 2020 Tir nhthig ket qui m6 phong trSn, ta co the ket luan dir^c ring, thing la thing xiy hien tuong xim nhip vdi dp nhiem m|n cao nhat va thing li thing co d6 nhiem thap nhdt Tuy nhien, ket qua mo phong l^i cho thay, nh&ng nim sip tdi tuong lai, tinh trang xim nhjp m ^ ngiy cing philo tap vdi d0 mjn ting cao Tlwiirangjar n ngap man ' ^ ^ v ^ ^ ^Tlnhtianaxamnaapman C ^ ^ - ^ - , ™, ^ -r.T~ ,/• -.!: < 5"5S •• ) / / ( >^ - • • • •• •• 7""' :.: • Y •'• ' " •' / " r \ -i^^ BôDô, ã / Ii THONG TIN KHOA HOC GIAO DVC ' " • - - - raT.'V"" J 55 /' r'"^'"•' •'t>^ i>^ " Nghien cihi khoa hgc 'JhdiU/ V^ mint ^ Hinh 8: Tinh trgngxdm nhgp man bdn thdng ddu cua ndm 2018 Hinh 9: Biiu dS thSng ki tinh trgngxdm nhdp mdn thdng cao nhdt nam 2018 Nhu hinh dnh md phong tren, thang diu ciia ndm 2018, dp mSn xam nhdp vdo h? thong sdng tang len rit cao, ti le dd mdn tren - 4g/l chilm hon 40% Do dd, tir bay gid, cdn co nhiing bi?n phap xii li cung nhu phdng chong kip thai de ngan chan dupe nhiing anh hudng tieu eye cua hien tupng xdm nhdp man ddi vdi ddi sdng sinh boat, kinh doanh, sdn xuat eua ngudi dan Cling nhu mpi ITnh vyc khdc cua xa hdi KET LUAN De tai nghien ciiu da thu dugc mpt so ket qua co ban nhu: Da thiet ke ban dd he thdng song ngdi tpa dp sd tir GIS Ap dung phuong trinh tinh todn cho md hinh xdm nhap man Dua bdn h? thdng sdng, sd lieu vao cong cy md phdng GAMA Tir GAMA md phdng kich bdn dua ban xam nhap man qua eae thang tren he thdng sdng tinh Bac Lieu giai doan nam 2010-2020 Duara nhdn xet md hinh ve tinh trang xam nhap man nhung nam qua LCn CAM TA Chung tdi xin giii Idi earn on den lanh dao Trucmg Dai hpc Bac Lieu da hd trp kinh phi Cam on Tmng tdm Khi tupng thuy van Bae Lieu dd cung cap ngudn sd lieu Cam on khoa Cdng nghe thdng tin da tao mpi dieu kien de tdi eo the hodn thdnh nghien ciiu ^ THdNG TIN KHOA HOC GL\0 DUC ^hdju/^ 02 noMu 2013 Nghien CLJfU khoa hgc TAI LIEU THAM KHAO Le, A.T and Suppakom, C , 2009 "Climate change in the Mekong River Delta and key concerns on future climate threats" Paper submitted to DRAGON Asia Summit, Seam Riep, Cambodia Le, A T, 2010 Impacts of Climate Change to the Biodiversity in the Wetlands and Natural Conservation Areas of the Mekong River Delta Ho Chi Minh city, Vietnam, in May 2010 SIWRP, 2008 Study on Climate Change Scenarios Assessment for Ca Mau Province Technical final report Vietnam Nguyen, T.H., 1992 Mathtoiatical model oftidal flow and salinity intrusion in river network with complex boundary condition Proceedings of National Conference on Mechanics, Vol.4, NXB Hanoi, Vietnam Pham, T.T H and Furiikawa, M.,2007 Impact of sea level rise on coastal zone of Vietnam Bull Fac Sci., Uni Ryukyus, 84:45-59 Hoang N.H, Huynh X.H, Nguyen H.T., 2011 Simulation of Salinity Intrusion in the Context of the Mekong Delta Region (Viet Nam) RIVF - IEEE Le, T.A Environmental hydrology Can Tho University, 1998 GAMA-platform http://code.google.eom/p/gama-platfonn/ Amouroux, E., Chu, T-Q., Boucher, A., Drogoul, A.: GAMA: an environment for implementing and running spatially explicit multi-agent simulations In 'PRIMA', 2007.\ 10 Treuil, J-P., Drogoul, A , Zucker, J-D Modeling and simulation-based agents: Examples commented, computer tools and theoretical questions, 2008 11 Drogoul, A., Vo, D.A., Amouroux, E Chu T.Q Nguyen, N.D "Agent-based simulation: definition, applications and perspectives", 2008 12 Shannon, R.E, "Introduction to simulation" WSC '92 Proceedings of the 24th conference on Winter simulation, 1992 13 Drogoul, A., Vanbergue, D., Meurisse, T Multi-Agent Based Simulation: Where are the Agents ? Proceedings of MABS'02, 2002 14 Drogoul, A., Ferber, J Multi-Agent Simulation as a Tool for Modeling Societies: Application to Social Differentiation in Ant Colonies, 2002 15 Railsback, S.F., Lytinen, SL., Jackson S.K Agent-based Simulation Platforms: Review and Development Recommendations Simulation 2007 16 Tuladhar, A.M, Lechture note on Spatial Data Models and Structure in GIS, ITC, the Netherlands, 1996 17 Vo M.Q Geographical Information System (GIS) Can Tho University 2005 18 Taillandier, P., Drogoul, A From GIS Data to GIS Agents, Modeling with the GAMA simulation platform, 2010 19 Climate change, sea level rise scenarios of Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Vietnam, 2009/2012 THdNG TIN KHOA HQC GIAO DVC