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Abstract The economy of India is a middle income developing mixed economy. It is the worlds sixthlargest economy by nominal GDP and the thirdlargest by purchasing power parity (PPP). According to the nternational Monetary Fund (IMF), on a per capita income basis, India ranked 145th by GDP (nominal) and 122th by GDP (PPP). Since the start of the 21st century, annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7%, and from 2013 to 2018, India was the worlds fastest growing major economy, surpassing China. Historically, India was the largest economy in the world for most of the two millennia from the 1st until the 19th century. However, besides those proud achievements, India also has to go through the challenges of two waves of the Covid19 pandemic. Bharats growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2020 went down to 3.1% according to the Ministry of Statistics. The Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India said that this drop is mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic effect on the Indian economy. Notably, India had also been witnessing a prepandemic slowdown, and according to the World Bank, the current pandemic has magnified preexisting risks to Indias economic outlook. On May 31 2021, the Indian government released the data for GDP that during the financial year 20202021, GDP contracted by 7.3 percent. It is the most severe contraction from the time India got its independence. The reasons behind this trajectory are obvious – lockdown leading to the closing of business units, increasing nemployment rate and a significant decline in domestic consumption.
Working Paper 2022 INDIAN ECONOMIC CHALLENGES IN THE SECOND CORONAVIRUS WAVE AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR UPCOMING THIRD WAVE Hà Nguyệt Lan Chi, Trần Khánh Ly, Nguyễn Kim Chi, Phạm Nguyễn Phương Linh, Nguyễn Bình Minh, Nguyễn Hải Phương, Nguyễn Đức Anh, Đỗ Ngọc Vũ, Nguyễn Hồng Hạnh Sinh viên K59 Cơ sở I Trường Đại học Ngoại thương Hà Nội, Việt Nam Nguyễn Thị Hải Yến Giảng viên Bộ môn Kinh tế Phát triển Cơ sở I Trường Đại học Ngoại thương Hà Nội, Việt Nam Abstract The economy of India is a middle income developing mixed economy It is the world's sixthlargest economy by nominal GDP and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on a per capita income basis, India ranked 145th by GDP (nominal) and 122th by GDP (PPP) Since the start of the 21st century, annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7%, and from 2013 to 2018, India was the world's fastest growing major economy, surpassing China Historically, India was the largest economy in the world for most of the two millennia from the 1st until the 19th century However, besides those proud achievements, India also has to go through the challenges of two waves of the Covid-19 pandemic Bharats growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year 2020 went down to 3.1% according to the Ministry of Statistics The Chief Economic Adviser to the Government of India said that this drop is mainly due to the coronavirus pandemic effect on the Indian economy Notably, India had also been witnessing a pre-pandemic slowdown, and according to the World Bank, the current pandemic has "magnified pre-existing risks to India's economic outlook" On May 31 2021, the Indian government released the data for GDP that during the financial year 2020-2021, GDP contracted by 7.3 percent It is the most severe contraction from the time India got its independence The reasons behind this trajectory are obvious – lockdown leading to the closing of business units, increasing unemployment rate and a significant decline in domestic consumption The Prime Minister announced a total economic stimulus package worth 270 billion USD and then raised it to 400 billion USD By July 2020, a number of economic indicators showed signs of increasing again and recovering By December 2021, India had returned to pre-COVID-19 growth and has prepared new solutions to deal with the upcoming 3rd wave of Covid-19 epidemic Keywords: economy of India, pandemic effect, slowdown, recovering, solutions 1 Economic development of India and its role in Asian economy 1.1 The role of India in Asian economy The economy of India is a middle income developing mixed economy India’s economy is a mixture of traditional village farming and handicrafts alongside booming modern industry and mechanized agriculture It is a major exporter of technology services and business outsourcing, and the service sector makes up 54% of its economic output Since the start of the 21st century, annual average GDP growth has been 6% to 7%, and from 2013 to 2018, India was the world's fastest growing major economy, surpassing China With a nominal GDP of $2.94 trillion, India was the world's sixth-largest economy by nominal GDP and the third-largest by purchasing power parity (PPP) in 2021 However, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), on a per capita income basis, India only ranked 168th by GDP (nominal) and 155th by GDP (PPP), due to its large population 1.2 Economic development of India before and after the first wave of pandemic Table GDP of India before and after the first wave of pandemic 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nominal GDP (trillion USD) 2.65 2.70 2.87 2.66 Adjusted GDP, PPP (trillion USD) 8.27 9.02 9.56 8.97 GDP growth (annual %) 6.8 6.5 4.0 -7.3 Source: World Bank Table GDP per capita of India before and after the first wave of pandemic 2017 2018 2019 2020 GDP per capita (USD) 1980.7 1996.9 2100.8 1927.7 GDP per capita, PPP (USD) 6182.9 6675.4 6997.9 6503.9 5.7 5.4 3.0 -8.2 GDP per capita growth (annual %) Source: World Bank Before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, India was in the midst of its most significant slowdown in economic growth since the global financial crisis Over the year to the March quarter 2020, GDP growth had slowed to just above per cent, well below the decade average of around percent during the 2010s Fiscal and monetary authorities had provided some support to the economy, although these measures had yet to arrest the slowdown before the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic After the initial COVID-19 outbreak, the Indian economy was severely disrupted Indian economic output fell by 25 percent, one of the largest falls in GDP in the June quarter of 2020 of any economy This was the impact of the stringency and length of India's initial lockdown A sudden loss of income for many of India's laborers led millions of migrant workers to leave urban areas and return to their villages As a result, there was a sharp decrease in GDP per capita growth for India in 2019 and eventually a negative growth rate in 2020 (-8.2%) 1.3 The main issues of economic development of India • Heavy population pressure: India is the second most-populated country in the world, the first being China (about 1.4 billion people in 2020) In India, the high levels of illiteracy lead to a high level of birth rates Hence, there is an increased economic burden on the country • Lack of access to basic amenities: Population living in slums (% of urban population) in India was reported at 35.2 % in 2018 Also, only 46.6 percent of households in India have access to drinking water within their premises This leads to the low efficiency of Indian workers • Inequality in wealth distribution: In India, merely percent of the population has 58 percent of the total Indian wealth Also, 57 billionaires have the same amount of wealth as the bottom 70 percent of India • Low level of technology: The majority of products are made with the help of inferior technologies Further, most enterprises in India are micro or small Hence, they cannot afford modern and more productive technologies • Beside that, there are many other challenges for the Indian economy, such as: huge dependence of population on agriculture, low quality of human capital, lack of infrastructure, under-utilization of natural resources… The challenges of the Indian Economy in the second coronavirus wave 2.1 The lack of awareness and prevention of Indian people about the disease In the article “Cross-sectional study on the role of public awareness in preventing the spread of COVID-19 outbreak in India”, the authors have determined the awareness, knowledge, and attitude about COVID-19 and relate the behavior of Indian society, especially when the country is restarting all its economic activities, after the complete lockdown They have concluded that the level of COVID-19 public awareness is poor in India The high percentage of illiteracy rate, congested living areas, and unequal access to natural resources1 that are vital for a healthy life are observed not only in villages but also in metropolitan cities like Delhi and Mumbai Social distancing is not a general practice Festivals, rituals, ceremonies, and general gatherings2 are part of the Indian societal framework It is always difficult to bring changes in the cultural societal framework This has hindered India from preventing the pandemic effectively despite many efforts of vaccine dissemination and roll-out According to a survey conducted by the above-mentioned article, about 90% of participants were aware that washing hands frequently with soap and water for at least 20 seconds, especially before eating, after using the bathroom, and after blowing your nose, coughing, or sneezing; and using hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol if soap and water are not available and wearing masks could prevent the spread of COVID-19 (Postgraduate Medical Journal, 2020) The virus that causes COVID-19 disease is named the 2019-nCoV virus which is a new species of coronavirus Half of the participants have wrong assumptions about this since only about 60% of participants were aware of the structural details and nomenclature of coronavirus3 (Postgraduate Medical Journal, 2020) The statistics showed that about 42% of participants thought that it is the same virus as SARS and the same medication could treat them (Postgraduate Medical Journal, 2020) Open-ended and cross-sectional surveys were carried out among the medical fraternity in China and India which raise concerns about the inadequacy of knowledge of the medical staff of hospitals caring for COVID-19 patients4 and in psychiatric hospitals5 Fake vaccines6, apart from giving a false sense of security with a heightened risk of exposure to the disease, endanger a person’s health and may also erode trust in legitimate vaccination programs and lead to vaccine hesitancy, nullifying efforts to reach mass immunization On the other hand, many studies have also shown multiple environmental factors that can affect the outbreak speed of COVID-197, which are: • Meteorological parameters, such as air temperature, humidity, rainfall, air pollution, and smoking • Living environment deprivation, especially in megacities, which are infectious diseases, overcrowded slums, and segregated low-class residential areas 2.2 Health-care system on the brink of collapse When experiencing the second wave of the coronavirus disease of 2019 pandemic, India has been facing a severe lack of awareness about covid and the inability to ensure the living environment of its people The second wave of the epidemic has passed, but its consequences are too devastating Figure The coronavirus second wave in India Source: self-synthesized The second wave took place in about months and created more destruction than the first wave8 Many people would think that the main reason was the emergence of new strains of COVID9 However, WHO believes that the Covid-19 outbreak in India is not entirely due to it but due to many other factors such as the lack of awareness and the insecurity in the living environment That put the health-care system on the verge of collapse India launched the vaccination program on 16 January 2021 but the vaccination rate was slow When the second wave of covid hit, contagion increased, and so did demand for vaccines India’s vaccination program was struggling to make an impact and supplies were problematic, although it is one of the countries with the largest pharmaceutical production capacity in the world10 The slow implementation of the vaccination campaign and the lengthy process of scheduling vaccination appointments on the government-managed app had frustrated many people11 The government had halted vaccine exports in March in order to focus on domestic inoculations, undergone an amendment in the rules of foreign vaccine manufacturers, paving the way for other foreign vaccines in the Indian market However, the health infrastructure was not enough to meet even if there was an adequate supply of vaccines India's medical infrastructure, which was already struggling before the pandemic, was severely overwhelmed They found a severe shortage of medical equipment such as test kits, PPE, masks and ventilators, liquid medical oxygen, as well as a shortage of medical professionals12 Meanwhile, India's Ministry of Health denied responsibility for not providing medical oxygen or adequate vaccination to the people This made India's healthcare system weaker and prone to collapse 2.3 The economic collapse of Coronavirus 2.3.1 Economy of India during the pandemic Many countries around the world have been greatly affected by the economy, trade and India is no exception when the nationwide blockade has brought nearly all economic activities in India to a sudden halt According to the Ministry of Statistics, India's growth rate in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2020 was 3.1 percent (Ministry of Statistics, 2021) Unemployment surged from 6.7 percent on March 15 to 26 percent on April 19, before falling back to pre-lockdown levels by midJune (Kishore, 2020) (Vyas, 2020) (Sharma, 2020) At the same time, India faces problems of supply chain stress during the lockdown, as well as the collapse of the tourism and hotel industries This has led to a decrease in government revenue (Chaudhry, 2020) Besides, at the end of June 2021, India had a border dispute with China, causing trade tension between these two countries and making the national situation even more difficult (Sutirtho, 2022)13 Even before the pandemic, India's growth was falling, 8% in Q4 FY18 to 4.5% in Q2 FY20 (Rajan & Gopalan, 2020) In January 2020 itself, well before India's lockdown or reactions to the pandemic, the International Monetary Fund reduced India's GDP estimates for 2019 and also reduced the 2020 GDP forecast (Rajan & Gopalan, 2020) However, according to the World Bank, the current pandemic has "magnified pre-existing risks to India's economic outlook" 2.3.2 Comparing China and India economy China and India together constitute almost 40 percent of the world population, and both had imposed strict lockdowns early on, despite crushing economic costs The lockdown measures in China had led to a historic decline in growth of at least 6% in 2020 (Gilles & Guo & Ke, 2021) Similar to India, China also faces a stagnant economy, rising unemployment, as well as problems with an energy crisis However, China - which had the first outbreak - was able to contain the virus much more efficiently as well as having a faster economy recovering than most other countries including India The main cause of this difference comes from the political and social factors of the two countries China and India responded to the pandemic with an iron fist, using draconian public health measures (Oommen, 2021) In China’s case, a population conditioned over the decades to meekly submit to an authoritarian state’s diktats helped tremendously A highly centralized political system made sure that China could reallocate resources, including human resources, quickly from regions that were less affected Besides, China residents are more united and they have a strong belief in the government In India, on the other hand, combined with significant healthcare infrastructure restrictions, a fundamental lack of faith in the State's ability to offer support systems for the populace hampered the efficiency with which it implemented its COVID19 response The contrast between India's chaos and authoritarian precision cannot be more pronounced than in the field of mobility control Even as the number of incidents grew, authorities at the national, state, and municipal levels in India were reluctant or unable to supervise largescale political or religious rallies (Oommen, 2021) The revolutions of the Indian Economy and the government’s actions after the Coronavirus second wave 3.1 The policies of the Indian government to recover the domestic economy 3.1.1 Fiscal policy and monetary policy • Fiscal policy: India announced its fiscal measures in two tranches with the first tranche promising USD 23 billion for households and businesses and a second more enhanced tranche of measures targeting businesses (about 2.7% of GDP) and expanding support for poor households (about 1.5% of GDP) (Malik, n.d.)14 • Monetary policy: The Monetary Policy Committee of the Reserve Bank of India delivered a 115-basis points reduction in the policy repo rate and announced an accommodative stance of monetary policy15 3.1.2 Healthcare and vaccination policy • • Vaccination: India has developed Covaxin indigenously and along with Covishield of AstraZeneca has been made available for the Indian people On 20th April 2021, availability of the COVID vaccines in the open market and permission has been given for vaccination of all above 18 years of age from 1st May 2021 (Joshi & Mehendale, 2021) Increasing care and treatment capacity to minimize complications and mortality: Building or creating adequate facilities in terms of hospital beds, oxygen supply, medicines, ventilators, and other critical care facilities in each district to provide proper medical care to moderate and severe cases is critical (Joshi & Mehendale, 2021) 3.1.3 Self-reliant India campaign In May 2020, the Indian Prime Minister launched the Self-Reliant India campaign to help the country overcome the challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic On 12 May 2020, the Prime Minister raised a clarion call to the nation giving a kick start to the Self-reliant India campaign, and announced the Special economic and comprehensive package India has exported two made-in India Covid-19 vaccines to a number of countries “During the moment of crisis, India is able to serve the world today, since is capable, self-reliant in the field of medicines, vaccines,” he said 3.1.4 The world units’ policies to fight Covid-19: UNICEF actions to deal with the break-out of the universal pandemic in India: “UNICEF and partners are doing everything they can to keep Indian children and their families safe and healthy." (UNICEF, n.d.)16 UN support to help India fight rapid COVID-19 surge: “In India’s time of need, the UN is doing everything it can to rapidly provide critical equipment and supplies to central and state governments”17, said Resident Coordinator Renata Lok Dessallien Nations around the world offer aid to India: “As India battles the second wave of the COVID19 pandemic, help, support, and solidarity has poured in for the nation from all corners of the world” Here are some nations supporting India during the second wave: • • The United Kingdom: sent 495 oxygen concentrators, 120 non-invasive ventilators, and 20 manual ventilators to India; 100 ventilators and 95 oxygen concentrators The United States: Providing the supplies of therapeutics, rapid diagnostic test kits, ventilators, and Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), oxygen generation, and other related facilities on an urgent basis (Nigam, 2021) 3.2 Indian economic recovery after the second wave: 3.2.1 Tell-tale Signs of economic recovery in India post-covid: There are the top five factors that show that India is on the road to recovery18 • Economic Indicators show signs of recovery The report shows that there has been an upswing in more than 85 percent of the high frequency economic indicators in India in 202119 Among the 19 HFIs, there are some indicators whose recovery is way beyond 100 percent, such as e-way bill by volume, merchandize exports/imports, coal production and rail freight traffic, which suggests that not only the recovery is complete, the economic growth is now gathering momentum over the pre-pandemic levels of output20 • More than 40 per cent rise in GST collection With GST collection surpassing more than Rs 1.3 lakh crore in November, India recorded the second highest GST collection in this financial year The GST collection in November in this financial year is almost 25 per cent more than the amount collected in the same month last financial year21 • Highest Private Equity Investments in 2021 With an investment of around 43 billion USD recorded in private equities, there has been a rise by nearly 20 percent between 2018 and 202122 • Growing Employment Opportunities The study shows there is an enormous opportunity of employment under the Production Linked Incentive Scheme (PLI)23 • Rising Credit Scores While there is a growing opportunity of employment, the credit score is also on the rise, mentions the report24 Banking credit sector is one of the sectors that is getting stronger with each passing year Banking credit has gone up by more than 65 per cent between 2017 and 2020 3.2.2 Indian economy’s future and role in the post-COVID-19 world: According to the flagship United Nations World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP) 2022 report, India's economic recovery is on a solid path, amid rapid vaccination progress, less stringent social restrictions and still supportive fiscal and monetary stances In detail, the report says25 The report said that the global economic recovery is facing significant headwinds amid new waves of COVID-19 infections, persistent labor market challenges, lingering supply-chain challenges and rising inflationary pressures 3.3 Indian government’s preparations for the third wave: India should start preparing to fight a possible 'third wave' which may be caused by the emerging Omicron variant, a top health expert has warned, keeping in mind its high transmissibility, but possibly low fatality26 3.3.1 The preparations of the Indian government to beat Omicron boom: Central and state governments have said that they are more prepared this time around to tackle the third wave in India The “third wave of the pandemic” - driven by the new variant of concern omicron - is projected to peak February 3, 2022 In the meantime, India’s medical oxygen capacity, essential for serious COVID-19 patients, has increased nearly 28 per cent between October 2020 and November 202127 The Union government has sanctioned 1,563 Pressure Swing Adsorption (PSA) oxygen generation plants28 ODAS and ODTS have been developed to meet the increasing demand for medical oxygen29 3.3.2 The government’s restrictions to minimize the spread of Omicron variants: Some states in India which are largely affected by the global pandemic have enacted policies and bans to strictly control community transmission and ensure a safe distance for the alerted area30 3.3.3 The preparations of hospital in India: The health care system for people, especially patients with covid 19 is greatly improved by the Indian government The government decided to invest a large amount of money to upgrade oxygen beds for patients to minimize the death rate due to covid 19 Children and the elderly are also subjects of great concern31 The recommendations for Indian economic development 4.1 Improving the healthcare system India’s health system faces the continuing challenge of responding to the requirements of the foremost disadvantaged members of Indian society during COVID 19 pandemic Despite progress in improving access to health care, inequalities by socioeconomic status, geography and gender still persist This is often compounded by high out-of-pocket expenditures, with the rising financial burden of health care falling overwhelming on private households, which account for over threequarter of health spending in India Health expenditures are answerable for quite half Indian households falling into poverty; the impact of this has been increasing pushing around 39 million Indians into poverty annually After the Covid-led unprecedented crisis, the Indian healthcare industry is undergoing a significant transformation The Covid epidemic has brought the shortcomings and flaws of India's healthcare system to light At the same time, the pandemic has also displayed the way for the digital intervention within the healthcare systems which are speculated to alter the healthcare landscape in 2022.The Covid-19 pandemic has reinforced the health sector's importance and also the have to strengthen efforts The oxygen-crisis led devastation which India witnessed during the second Covid surge has shown that the state must be better prepared for the health emergencies In this paper, we examine the major issues that India's healthcare systems face Unbalanced resource allocation, restricted physical access to excellent health services, and insufficient human resources for health; excessive out-of-pocket health costs, health spending inflation, and behavioral variables that impact the demand for proper health care are just a few examples We argue for the use of particular principles in the quest of fairness in health care in India, given the sensitivity of the country's nascent health-care system Adoption of equity metrics in monitoring, evaluation, and strategic planning, investment in developing a rigorous knowledge base of health systems research, development of more equity-focused deliberative decision-making processes in health reform, and redefinition of specific responsibilities and accountabilities of key actors are among them These principles, together with the improvement of public health and primary care facilities, constitute a strategy for guaranteeing more equitable health care for India's people The government must get international funding for the healthcare system India also boasts a thriving pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector, as well as world-class scientists and a booming clinical trials business It also has world-class hospitals that attract overseas patients and treat the country's wealthier people The country's fast increasing health system remains a source of worry as the Indian government attempts to offer universal health care for all There are discrepancies in health and health-care systems between poorer and wealthier states, as well as underfunded and sometimes inefficiently operated and controlled health-care systems New government-funded health-care programs are expanding coverage, but coverage is still restricted The government must train and equip suitable professionals with technical understanding, both in diagnosis and sickness management, to deal with the significant increase in cases The country's capacity to develop extraordinary health executives and professionals is being strained by both public and private health systems As a result of rising to these difficulties, the people of India have the potential to have a significant impact on their own future health as well as the future of global public health and medical initiatives The initial wave completely destabilized India's healthcare system, and the expanding number of cases constituted a major concern, resulting in a scarcity of hospital beds, oxygen, medication, and human resources Due to the obstacles posed by the pandemic, both waves of covid-19 have introduced significant adjustments and developments It sparked a severe slump across all industries, resulting in further reorganization that will eventually lead to a more robust and modern healthcare system Some of the trends that emerged during the pandemic included online medicine delivery, teleconsulting, medical gadgets, clinical intelligence and enablement, and so on For the Indian healthcare system, technology has produced a leapfrog moment As a result of the rigorous lockdown and confusion generated by the epidemic, digital integration in the healthcare profession became the final resort for smoothing out activities Patients became more comfortable with computer-assisted remote diagnosis and treatment, and governments began to expand and digitize their traditional healthcare systems 4.2 Raise Indian public awareness about the disease The growing pandemic of COVID-19 disease requires social distancing and personal hygiene measures to protect public health as recommended by WHO Personal hygiene (respiratory hygiene, using face masks, washing hands with warm water and soap, use of alcohol-based hand sanitizers, avoiding touching mouth, eyes & nose, cleanliness), social distancing and careful handling of purchased products are all effective preventive measures that people can take to prevent themselves from being infected In order to raise the population’s conscientiousness and encourage them to take measures mentioned above, there is a clear need for training programmes with respect to locale-specific scenarios targeted to a specific cluster of population emplaning upon their respective lifestyle, to improve the knowledge and compliance about risk and preventions It is recommended that a structured and well-planned educational program should be undertaken to enhance the awareness level and contribute to better practice In addition, the role of media, physician, government and non-governmental organizations and religious groups is extremely important in creating awareness about the various aspects of spread, prevention, treatment of the disease by means of interesting programmes, poems, songs, cartoons, talks, among others, to facilitate confidence of people to let them protect themselves, follow their economic activities and care COVID-19 patients Creating awareness by innovative ways should be adopted as one of the best practices to combat the spread of pandemic Presentations on TV, social media in local people’s friendly language, online and live competitions with continuous guidelines are required There is a need to 10 elaborate the Indian socio-cultural aspects so that society starts appreciating and voluntarily following social distancing This should improve the confidence of people to let them protect themselves not only from the present pandemic but also from all other unforeseen infections, provide care to patients, and contribute towards the country's economic build-up by maintaining livelihood resilience with continued presence and productivity at the workplace This should improve the confidence of people to let them protect themselves and care COVID-19 patients 4.3 Improve Indian people’s living environment A number of responses were created by the government across the world to reduce the rapid transmissions of COVID-19 such as lockdown, closing of shopping malls, travel restrictions, restrictions of public gatherings, investment in health care facilities etc In spite of these policies, the cities across the globe were severely affected by this deadly disease In India, it was also well recognized that the large cities are severely affected such as Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai, Hyderabad, Jaipur, Jodhpur, Ahamedabad etc More than 50% of the total COVID-19 confirmed cases were reported from ten large cities in India As per as report of Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), risk of COVID-19 transmissions was 1.09 times higher in urban areas and 1.89 times higher in urban slum areas respectively (Swarajya, 2020) Thus, from the above findings, it was obvious that the urban areas are more vulnerable to COVID-19 transmissions The findings also clearly showed that only above mentioned policies are not enough to reduce the COVID-19 transmissions, rather, government must focus on the living environment of the urban dwellers and priority must be given on the availability and accessibility to basic services and amenities (such as water, sanitations, proper housing conditions with enough space to spare during social distancing), as well as ensuring no overcrowding happens in vulnerable areas by providing the minimum required space for a dweller Government must provide adequate basic services and amenities to the poor urban dwellers to improve the quality of life through existing programmes such as Jawaharlal Nehru Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM), Integrated Housing and Slum Development Programs (IHSDP) The local government must focus on the proper effectiveness of policies and programmes without politicization In addition to this, urban planners and policy makers must need deep research before implementation of any urban planning framework in the future Furthermore, the national authorities should impose stricter regulations on public religious celebrations and festivals which attract huge crowds gathering together Festivals can be celebrated later, let first prioritize the lives and health of the citizens 4.4 Urbanizing India’s rural populations Over the past decade, socioeconomic shifts such as urbanization have altered physical infrastructure and social connections during the last decade Rural economies, socioeconomic status, and transportation networks are changing as a result of urbanization, which might affect morbidity and access to health care during the COVID 19 pandemic Increased earnings and the shift to non-farm economies will have an influence on the sorts of foods eaten and levels of physical activity, raising the risk of chronic illness Changing family arrangements (from joint families or homes with multiple generations cohabiting to nuclear or single-generation families), community norms, and traditional social networks are all impacting the resources and care for the 11 elderly in urban transition environments The impact of these changes on the health requirements of the elderly and their experiences with health difficulties is little understood Growing informality - in the form of slums and unorganized economic activities - as well as violations of development norms, deterioration of air and water quality, depletion of natural resources, traffic and transportation inadequacies, mismanagement of solid and liquid waste, erratic electricity supply, waterlogging, loss of heritage and culture, lack of rural-urban integration, and growing intolerance were the most pressing issues in India's urban sector in 2020 The COVID-19 epidemic has only exacerbated these problems; the current situation necessitates the implementation of a new set of urban reform initiatives that can assist create resilience The government should establish India's imperatives, which include improving the lives of marginalized communities, establishing systems for citizen engagement in civic affairs, and limiting population increase The Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT), Housing for All, Smart Cities, Swachh Bharat, and Rurban Missions, among other national and state-level efforts, provide a chance to better manage India's urban transformation Governments at all levels, national, state, and municipal, must work more to guarantee that the advantages of urbanization reach all segments of society Infrastructure has to be developed in order to meet the problems of urbanization Unfortunately, fast population increase and a lack of proper investment are slowing the development of urban infrastructure India is now experiencing a housing crisis in metropolitan areas, and additional housing will be required to fulfill future demand Due to a lack of housing policies, this demand originates from the economically disadvantaged Government initiatives involving public-private partnerships have resulted in the creation of housing In India, private transportation is the most common means of transportation There is a high reliance on private transportation, which has resulted in traffic congestion, increased travel time, and pollution As a result of the flood of these cars, road networks must be expanded Increased urbanization has resulted in increased demand for energy, as seen by India's electricity and power infrastructure requirements India urgently needs to expand its power generation capacity and develop new power generation technologies People in India must have access to concept cities and smart cities Concept cities have sprung up around the country as a result of manufacturing and education, and smart cities are becoming increasingly popular Conclusion Duvvuri Subbarao, a former Reserve Bank of India governor, said that India could look forward to a V-shaped recovery A V-shaped recovery is the best outcome Arthur D Little, an international consulting firm, has suggested that India will most probably see a W-shaped recovery Ajay Bhushan Pandey, the Finance Secretary of India, said that the "Indian economy could revive sooner than we expect" while Tarun Bajaj, the Economic Affairs Secretary said that he expected a V-shaped recovery With the challenges of a new recession and economic crisis, vital situations such as these are calling for powerful and effective policy making in Health, industry, government and community A comprehensive social-economic development strategy that consists of infrastructure and sectorby-sector schemes that supports business to ensure the success of those with reliable and sustainable business models are required The pandemic of COVID-19 has necessitated the need 12 for attention to the underserved and marginalised populations holistically, to prevent long-lasting adverse health outcomes Economic stressors on the whole population will need mitigation and quick changes in policy would help To summarize on the macroeconomic numbers of GDP, an impact of the second wave was less severe due to less strict, localized lockdowns and practically a lesser number of days in reaching the peak number of infections The hopes for an economic recovery are closely tied to the fact that India has a quick vaccination drive and also mid- and long-term strategies that will help remove third wave fears and restore consumer confidence and spending Appendix According to the Census 2001, as many as 560,687,797 persons in the country are literate Of these 336,533,716 are males and 224, 154,081 are females While the overall literacy rate works out to be 64.8 %, the male literacy rate is 75.3% and that for females is 53.7%, showing a gap of 21.6 percentage points between the sexes at the national level The gap is more in the rural areas In the urban areas, a higher literacy rate has been recorded both for males and females and the difference among the sexes is lower (13 percentage points) Kerala, Mizoram, Lakshadweep, Goa, and Chandigarh occupy the top five positions in literacy while Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Uttar Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, Arunachal Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Bihar, are at the bottom The literacy rates for the rural population are the highest in Kerala, followed by Lakshadweep, Mizoram, Goa, and Delhi Fourteen (14) States / Uts have recorded less than 60 percent rural Literacy rate India's peak holiday season includes Durga Puja, Dussehra, and Diwali Ten of thousands of Indians have gathered amid the COVID-19 surge, which then resulted in another rise in the infected cases Analysis of cases and testing data suggested that lower restrictions during the traditional harvest festival of Onam on August 21 proved a setback to COVID-19 management Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that can cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to more serious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and the Middle East respiratory syndrome Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses and belong to the Nidovirus family or Nidovirales order, which includes Coronaviridae, Arteriviridae, and Roniviridae families A cross-sectional, web-based study was conducted among HCWs about COVID-19 during the first week of March 2020 A 23-item survey instrument was developed and distributed randomly to health care workers using social media; it required minutes to complete A chisquare test was used to investigate the level of association among variables, with significance set to P < 0.5 This study aimed to investigate the knowledge and perceptions of HCWs about COVID-19 The study is available at: Based on the study of Daugherty et al (2009), a 33-item survey questionnaire was designed to assess the knowledge and attitudes of medical staff in Chinese psychiatric hospitals regarding the COVID-19 (see supplementary material) The purpose of our study was to assess the knowledge and attitudes of medical staff in Chinese mental health centers during the COVID-19 outbreak The study is available at: 13 In South Africa, 400 ampules, equivalent to 2400 doses, of fake COVID-19 vaccines were dismantled from a warehouse In Mumbai at least 2053 people were given fake jabs of the vaccines at nine centres as part of vaccination drives/camps An entire housing committee was scammed by fake vaccines and one hospital was even sealed for conducting a fake vaccination drive A similar situation was witnessed in Kolkata, where 800 people were duped with fake jabs In the fake vaccination drive, there are suspicions that people received either expired vaccines, empty vials, saline water or an antibiotic, amikacin, in place of the vaccine Recent studies have shown multiple environmental factors such as air temperature (Liu et al., 2020; Núñez-Delgado, 2020; Wang et al., 2020; Yongjiana, Jingubc, Fengmingb, & Liqingb, 2020; Zhu & Xie, 2020), humidity (Auler et al., 2020; Ma et al., 2020; Gupta et al, 2020), air pollution (Wu, Nethery, Sabath, Braun, & Dominici, 2020), smoking (Taghizadeh-Hesary & Akbari, 2020) determine the severity as well as rapid spread of COVID-19 After a quick review of the previous studies, few notable gaps have been identified Firstly, most of the previous studies focused to examine the impact of meteorological parameters (such as air temperature, humidity, rainfall) on COVID-19 outbreak (Liu et al., 2020; Núñez-Delgado, 2020; Wang et al., 2020; Yongjiana et al., 2020; Zhu & Xie, 2020; Auler et al., 2020; Ma et al., 2020; Gupta et al, 2020) rather than socio-economic conditions of the people Secondly, living environment deprivation, especially in megacities, may increase the risk of COVID-19 spread by affecting the survival and transmission of the virus in a variety of ways, considerable evidence exists for higher incidences of certain infectious diseases reported in an urban setting from deprived small neighbourhoods (Hughes and Gorton, 2014), overcrowded slums (Baker M, et al., 2000), and segregated low-class residential areas (Acevado-Garcia D., 2000) But still now no studies have been performed to assess the impact of overall living conditions of the households on COVID-19 cases Thirdly, in few recent studies very few indicators have been considered to understand the urban vulnerability to COVID-19 (Misra et al., 2020; Das, Ghosh et al., 2020) However, it is very difficult to understand the relationship between living conditions and COVID-19 particularly in large megacities by considering these few indicators Fourth, very few studies have been performed to examine the relationship between living conditions of the people and outbreak of COVID-19 (Wang & Su, 2020; Wang & Wang, 2020) Particularly it remained unexplored in Indian context The first wave peaked in September 2020 and daily confirmed cases were approximately 0.1 million cases Meanwhile, the peak of the second wave's daily cases was approximately 0.4 million cases In the second wave, more than 80% of patients have severe symptoms on admission due to travel delay Some patients have the virus but have no symptoms, so don't get tested In India, testing is also more difficult to access in rural areas The previous national survey showed that the number of infected people is 20 to 30 times more than reported Most Indians died at home or in some places other than hospitals Therefore, the doctor could not determine the cause of death Variant B.1.167 has the ability to spread quickly, which is considered part of the reason why India has fallen into the most severe COVID-19 crisis since the pandemic broke out in this country In several cities in Maharashtra - the worst-affected state in India - variant B.1.617 was found in more than 50% of samples subjected to genome sequencing 14 10 11 12 13 India produces 60% of global vaccines and has three vaccines (Covaxin, Covishield/Vaxzevria and Sputnik V) approved for emergency use The uneven price of the Covid-19 vaccine created divisions in society and people rushed to get vaccinated due to the urgent need This makes the situation more difficult to control and makes people gradually lose faith in the government and turn to profiteers who provide fake vaccines and poor-quality medical aids More than 260 doctors have died from covid 19 since April to mid-May Medical staff were in the worst condition when they were overworked and working conditions were not guaranteed Hospitals were littered with patients waiting for oxygen in despair, crematories were overloaded and shipments of oxygen and medical supplies from all over the world rushed to India The India-China bilateral trade touched a record high of over USD 125 billion in 2021, crossing the USD 100 billion-mark in a year when the relations hit a new low due to the prolonged standoff by the militaries in eastern Ladakh, while India's trade deficit too mounted to over USD 69 billion The border standoff between the armies of India and China erupted on May last year following a violent clash in the Pangong lake areas and both sides have gradually enhanced their deployment by rushing in tens of thousands of soldiers as well as heavy weaponry 14 15 16 17 18 In the fiscal package announced by the government it has committed: • To pay employee provident fund contributions on behalf of employees and employers for the next three months for small firms; • Amend pension regulations to allow workers to draw up to 75% for their contingency expenditure non-refundable advance or three months of wages in advance, whichever is less • In a relief to small and medium enterprises facing the threat of insolvency because of COVID19, the threshold for invoking insolvency has been raised 100-fold to INR 10 million (Malik, n.d.) In monetary policy, the central bank also announced several liquidity measures to combat the adverse impacts of covid19, including: • Long-term repo operations targeted to reduce banks ‘cost of funds for up to INR trillion; • Simultaneous purchase and sale of securities under open market operations; • Targeted long-term repo operations, with the objective of making it easier for non-bank financial and micro-finance institutions to raise money; (Malik, n.d.) For example, UNICEF is providing technical support to the government and partners to help ensure that 12.3 million children across 17 states are able to continue learning from home UN is helping India to scale-up additional hospital beds by procuring mobile field hospitals in the most affected areas The agency is also providing for laboratories to meet the huge demand for testing (Reddy, 2021) The Indian economy is showing strong signs of recovery from the devastation caused by the pandemic such as high inflation, the growing rate of unemployment and severe pay cuts in various sectors A report namely Market Outlook by Kotak Mutual Funds, was released during a round table conference addressed by Nilesh Shah, Managing Director, Kotak Mahindra Asset Management, who discussed Indian economy’s post-Covid recovery 15 19 20 High-frequency indicators (HFIs) are being monitored to track the progress of economic recovery in India since the first COVID-19 case was reported in the country in January 2020 Full recovery has been achieved in respect of 19 HFIs, as their latest levels in the months of September, October and November in 2021 are higher than their pre-pandemic levels in the corresponding months of 2019 In detailed: • UPI (volume) witnessed the highest recovery between 2019 and 2021 as the upswing in it is nearly four times at 421.9 crore • Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) at Rs 108.2 crore in October was 157 per cent of the preCovid levels of 2019 • Merchandise imports at USD 55.4 billion in October are 146 percent of 2019 levels E-way bill volume has more than doubled to 7.4 crore in October • Coal production has risen 131 per cent to 114.1 million tonnes in September while rail freight traffic has jumped 125 per cent • Fertilizer sales, power consumption, tractor sales, cement production, port cargo traffic, fuel consumption, air cargo, IIP, and 8-core industries are all above pre-Covid levels, they said The only sectors that are yet to touch the pre-pandemic level are steel consumption which is 99 percent of 2019 levels in October, domestic auto sales that are 86 percent of pre-Covid levels and air passenger traffic which is 66 percent of the October 2019 volume 21 22 23 24 25 While the GST collection was highest in April in 2021, it fell by nearly 34 percent in June after the second wave of Covid hit the country in the mid of April But it gradually started showing a rise from July onwards and in November it is up by more than 40 per cent as compared to June The report shows that the private equity investment spiked high since 2016 but 2021 recorded the highest investment “Investors should follow asset allocation Maintaining disciplined asset allocation is important for overall growth,” says Shah In the upcoming five years, there will be more than 10 million direct jobs and 34 million indirect jobs in India under the PLI scheme Nearly 45 percent of the direct job opportunities will be created in the automobile industry Other sectors with the highest potential to create employment opportunities include the food sector, pharmacy and telecom and networking Banking credit sector is one of the sectors that is getting stronger with each passing year Banking credit has gone up by more than 65 per cent between 2017 and 2020 “Housing has been the sector that has got the highest credit growth Overall banking credit growth is above average,” adds Shah India's GDP is forecast to grow at 6.5 per cent in fiscal year 2022, a contraction from the estimated growth of 8.4 per cent in fiscal year 2021 On a calendar year basis, India's GDP is predicted to expand by 6.7 per cent in 2022 after a per cent expansion in calendar year 2021, as base effects wane GDP growth for the country is forecast to slow down to 6.1 per cent in 16 calendar year 2023 and growth is projected to further slow down to 5.9 per cent in the financial year 2023 Indian Robust export growth and public investments underpin economic activity, but high oil prices and coal shortages could put the brakes on economic activity in the near term It added “It will remain crucial to encourage private investment to support inclusive growth beyond the recovery," It added that while still vulnerable, India is in a better position to navigate financial turbulence compared to its situation during the "taper tantrum" episode after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis This is due to a stronger external position and measures to minimize risks to bank balance sheets In the medium-term, scarring effects from higher public and private debt or permanent impacts on labor markets could reduce poten In India, inflation is expected to decelerate throughout 2022, continuing a trend observed since the second half of 2021 when relatively restrained food prices compensated for higher oil prices A sudden and renewed rise in food inflation, however, due to unpredictable weather, broader supply disruptions and higher agricultural prices, could undermine food security, reduce real incomes and increase hunger across the region 26 27 28 29 The health expert explained that in this phase, India should be preparing itself for the possibility that a third wave may come, while hoping that research finds the variant to not be very fatal The doctor added that hybrid immunity in India is very high which has 'better protection' against Omicron The health expert explained that in this phase, India should be preparing itself for the possibility that a third wave may come, while hoping that research finds the variant to not be very fatal The doctor added that hybrid immunity in India is very high which has 'better protection' against Omicron There has been an increase in oxygen capacity to 8,778 tonnes / day from 6,876 tonnes / day in November 2021, Bharati Pravin Pawar, minister of state in the Union health ministry told Lok Sabha December PSA oxygen plants generate medical-grade oxygen These include 1,225 PSA plants that have been installed and commissioned under the PM CARES Fund in every district of the country Nearly 34 per cent of these have been commissioned in four states — Uttar Pradesh (128), Madhya Pradesh (88), Tamil Nadu (70), Maharashtra (68) and Bihar (62) At least 25 PSA oxygen plants have been commissioned in the national capital Delhi The states have been asked to install PSA plants in public health facilities and facilitate the installation of PSA plants in private health facilities The required rates of oxygen flow in a non-intensive care unit (ICU) and ICU setting are 10 and 24 liters per minute per day per case This means that these plants can support more than 100,000 beds a day Online digital solutions such as the Oxygen Demand Aggregation system (ODAS) and Oxygen Digital Tracking System (ODTS) have been developed to ascertain the demand for medical oxygen from all medical facilities and to track their transportation ODTS helps track the daily allocations of oxygen, their dispatch and deliveries, including the movement of oxygen tankers 17 30 Measures, including night curfews, have been imposed by governments in Assam, Delhi, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh amid the surge Now, Maharashtra, among the worst-hit states, has prohibited a gathering of more than five people between pm and am Restaurants and gyms in the state are allowed to operate at 50 per cent capacity only There is a possibility of a ‘yellow alert’ in Delhi, according to the recent health bulletin: The positivity rate increased from 0.55 per cent on December 26 to 0.68 per cent on December 27 in one day This is under the ‘Corona Graded Response Action Plan’ passed in July 2021 The Delhi government is likely to take a call in a review meeting on December 28 31 Delhi, the most infected state by omicron, has allotted 13,418 beds for COVID-19 patients, according to the Coronavirus dashboard of the state health department The state now has 10,374 COVID-19 oxygen beds Of these, 292 are occupied and 10,082 are vacant, as of December 27, 2021 Andhra Pradesh claimed to have spent about Rs 8,000 crore on multiple interventions for prevention, mitigation and management of COVID-19 Close to 23,457 oxygen concentrators and 27,311 D-type oxygen cylinders are available The state government has set up oxygen generation plants in 140 hospitals, which would be made available by December 15, said Chief Minister YS Jagan Mohan Reddy National regulator, the Central Drugs and Standard Control Organization granted permissions six Covid 19 vaccinations for manufacture in the country while three vaccines are presently used in the national COVID-19 vaccination program: Covishield, Covexin and Sputnik V On December 25, 2021, the Prime Minister announced the next step: India will start vaccinating children between 15 and 18 years from January 3, 2022 Uttar Pradesh too has announced vaccinating children aged 15-18 years from January 3, 2022 In India, people above 60 years of age who have comorbidities will also be allowed to 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COVID-19 wave imminent’: How prepared is India?” Available at: https://www.downtoearth.org.in/news/health/-third-covid-19-wave-imminent-how-preparedis-india 80879 Bhatia, A & Bhaskar, S., (2021), “How Prepared Is India for COVID-19 Third Wave”, Available at: https://swachhindia.ndtv.com/how-prepared-is-india-for-covid-19-third-wave62254 Anon., (2021), “India must prepare for possibility of third Covid-19 wave, warns health expert”, Available at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/india-must-prepare-forpossibility-of-third-covid-19-wave-warns-health-expert/articleshow/88116502.cms 20 ... vaccine exports in March in order to focus on domestic inoculations, undergone an amendment in the rules of foreign vaccine manufacturers, paving the way for other foreign vaccines in the Indian. .. market challenges, lingering supply-chain challenges and rising inflationary pressures 3.3 Indian government’s preparations for the third wave: India should start preparing to fight a possible ''third. .. concern31 The recommendations for Indian economic development 4.1 Improving the healthcare system India’s health system faces the continuing challenge of responding to the requirements of the foremost