climate change impact on agriculture and costs of adaptation pptx

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Climate Change

Impact on Agriculture and Costs of Adaptation

Gerald C.Nelson Mark Rosogrant woo Koo, Richard Roberson Timosy Suse, Tings Zhu Cauda Ringler Sa Mang, Amanda Plzzo Miri Ba, Marika Maalhaes Rowena Valmont Santos, Mandy wig and David Lee

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TheleeetsesrelEcdfele Recech dt (FPR ns eid 1975 FPL ore 5 apa escheat hat coe: pol nding om govern rat functors enon nd rel snhndomr mo hi tnenbrs be Conhlorte up nro! Aa Revere,

Con ein spd em htt b 8S aoPANDS td 20 Kin von Crab RL ena © 209 nar ent ae Rema ie rr Sc cp kế

Seppe tantly ade Yo Pn rp

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Climste-change induced yield effects by crop nd management system, change from ylld wich 2000 clmate to yield with 2050 cate World food prices (USBimetic ton) a 2000 and 2050 and percent changes fr selected crops and lvestock products

Climate-hange eflcts on crop praduction, no CÓ fertiation

Pt eabitaconsutipion (ke per year) of caro ind meats with and without slimate change (NCAR and CSIRO)

Daly pr apis calorie avaihbiley with and withous climate change “otal number of malnourished children in 2000 a 2050 (milion children

under 5 years of ag)

Developing-country agriutural product investments Dally calorie per capa consumption with adaptive Investments (keslipersontaay)

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| Change in average maximum comperacire (°C), 2000-2050 2 Change in precipitation (mm), 2000-2050

2 World prices, Livestock products, 4 World prices, Malor gros

5 Dally per capita calorie aalbilty with and without climate change 6 Child malnurtion fects, Asa and Sub-Saharan Aiea

1 Child malnutrition face, Eee Ai and the Paci, Europe and

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the authors would ike to seknowledge the francslzupport sƒ the An Derdopmmont Bmk snd te Wod#

Bank (under the Economics of Adaptation to Cliire Cha S4) and the many efl comments nd suggestions from reviewers of earber verslans Any erarsremin the respon ofthe authors

Financial Contributors and Partners

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“The Challenge

he unimpeded growth of greenhouses emisions Ie raaing the earth emperaire The consequences elude meting gaciers more precpittion.more and, tore extreme weather events and hing reason ‘The accelerating pace of climate change combined with iobal population and income growth tveatens food Security everywhere [Agriculture i extremely vlnerablet0 climate change Higher emmperauresevently reduce yieldt ‘of desirable crops while encouraging weed and pest proliferation Changes in preiptation pacers n= ease the Ikellhood of short-run erp flures and Jang:run production declines, Although there willbe ins in some crops in some regions ofthe word the “van impacts of elma change on agrcucure are expected to be negate, tireatnig Population in the developing world, which are tal food secur already vuinerable and food insecure, are ch t> be che moze seriously affected, In 2005 nearly hat ofthe economically active population in developing countries 25 billon peaple—relled on agriculture for its vein Today 75 percent ofthe wold: poor

This Food Policy Repert presents research results thạc quantify the clmaterchange impacts mentioned shove,aitesses the consequences for food security,

tnd estimate the investments that would oft te negative consequences for human well-bing This analysis brings cogether fr the fst sme, deralled model oferop growth under clmate ‘lange wit insights ram an extremely dead global

grculture model using swo climate scensroe to simulate future climate, The rele ofthe analyst suggest tha agriculture ond human well-being will be negatively affected by climate change:

+ In dvelopng countries climate change wil nace Yad declines for she most important crop South ‘Asia willbe parieur hard he

+ CHưee dong ti key varying fess on ged Yds arozt regions but ried yield for al rope In South Asia wil experience irge decines

+ Climate change wil eulinadctionl price increases for te mest mporane agra rops-rie, whose Imalz.and soybeans Higher fed prices wil resut ia Iigher mea prices Asa resule cate change wal reduce the gromth In est consumption alight and ‘urea more subaangl fi creas consumption, + Calorie avail in 2080 wl not only be lower than in de no-linate-hinge scerario— wil

cual decine rev 200 leel throughorr the developing word

+ By 2050,the decine in ore sain với heresse til mainatrion by 20 percerreRde to avod# ‘with no cate change Climate change wi iminne much ofthe inprovemen ia child malourishment lanh tht would occur wih no climate change + Thos.agresive agricul productivity vestments ‘of USS71-7, billon? are needed to raze calorie onsumption enough to aflet the negative

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Recommendations

“The resuks ofthis anlysis suggest the folowing poley tnd program recommendations I Design aed implement good overall

development policies and programe

{Given the currene uncertain sour locaton spect ind programs are ko thọ be carate ange, adspradonImesonens A pro-growth pro-poor development agenda tht suppers ager ied chmate Gangs adaptation the donlerUe, ‘word, Adspation ro cma change eser when Inridul ve more resources wif operate nan

2 Inereaseivestmentsin agricultural productivg ren withoue mate ange reter investments 0 agiciteralscnoon and tecinebogy ws needed te eet the demands ofa world popuston expected to rech 3 lon by 2050 ary of these people wil

desire a more diverse diet Agicukural scence: and

‘chology based solitons ate eset co mest ‘rate chnge paces new and more challenging nands on agua product Crop and netock producivy enhanc reerch ndudng owe

‘nate chnge Crops and vertck are needed th are ‘doing resconably wala range of producion snion rans rather than extreme well a narrow se of Ÿ— nEsiuekseddmeebirietonteveese lỗ) paeseaneelsdierelwemelaneamlmene i (One of they lessons ofthe Green Retouson Ễ Kdarinprmeeglelualproduelugreenifnot

targeted to the poorent othe poor can be a powerful ‘pectaian for dctaang poreny treet) by Cres ob and lowering food pies: rodcty trncerent tht Increase fer reilence nthe ‘Gee of emate change pressures willy ave aiar poverty reducng feces Rural nfstructre secon farmers are

to ake advantage of improved eep varies and ‘management eciigues Higher ele and more ‘Cropped are requre mantanin sné ncrvsengthe dent of rural oud necworks to increase acces (0 rarkels and reduce wansacton cons resents irigiton inifecruchreare ko need expel

inprove the ficiency of water se but eare mast be tae eo avoid ivesamenc nplces where water

Reinvigorate national research and extension programms Investment kboratory scents nd the estate they repre nce,

Fararrstps with other ronal sates and incrrational centers are part ofthe soliton CColaborstion wth local rer put supers, (abe eel Comirieh rapes ae eel tfccove developmen nd Gecomincon of oealy seproprate,costefective techque and ulvars

haenge ‘Witla countries extension progr cn phy of chnate change, snk fle in fertonstreg ty tchorg ‘ecnology felting mteraczon,buldng peny mong farmers and encouraging farmers to frm ther evn nator Extension servis tat

specfclysdoresscmate-changs adaption inde Seosnintng bel cds of rogers trop varieties, teaching proved management Syrtemsand gathering formation fo ete

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edeml nhanh uy Farterergatmtions con

Seafoam sty ett nd between government dfort and farmer aco, ‘4: Improve gltil data collection, dissenination, and analysis Chnate change wil hve dane

Contequerce or arcohure Homer ubeani esters Thee uncer make fecaloging te ‘move forward on poles o combac the eects Cf elmate charge Gaba lato calle apd ‘Gsvemiate dns on the spn nature of sgicdurs need rõ b szengthenod Rgglan epee

hservacons ofthe surface ofthe earth vi emote esig are eta Funding for mtinal teste rope shoul be incrested vo dẹc thợ cm Fis the ask of moniorng lol change Understanding agrclture-chmate interactions wall enough to suppare adaption and mignon ‘coves Sed on En ta roqiree mor improvements nda collection, dseminacon, ae sala

5, Make agricultural adapeation a key agenda poine within ehefaternational climate nepotitions prose a window of appareunty for govermen and ei socletyorgatcation tơ advance propos or reo aeons on adaption 4, Recognize that enhanced food security and climate-change adaptation go hand In hand

ecunty alors Hence, any sty thot spores tercukua apeaton seg eobances ood ec

‘Conersey.anything that res in erased fod secur wllpronid che por expec the rr Door wh che resources tat i lp Shem ep to dmae chuc

3pmclcemmnfr-koai sigSifễn Sate Crop and ero potrenig mrt Gace tanaland apc suport Saree eres ‘esata seapton ok nd soap se

Increase funding for adaptation programs by at least an additional $7 bllon per year {Atleast $7 blten pe yearn sional

funding is required co fiance ch research, rural nrstrctre, and er to ole the negate elects of climate change fon haan wellbeing The mic af ivertments Ser by region Sub Sharan Aen requires the reates overall invesnentand vestments in roads, Lai Amerie i grea a renter share of

on investment needed

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Climate-Change Scenarios’

apkutedngprnt dfn (4H He aed pmo OS) Zc ind eas ag Tas ran cincinnati pae Eoko) cewek compensating for elrate change of crn cg whol et co

id

‘The IMPACT model was origly developed by the Inernaonal Food Pac Rezerch Inetute (PRI for projecaing plobal fod spp food demand, nd food cect to 2020 and beyond Ie arlaee 32 crop and restock cemmadiesin 28 region ofthe world hat together cover the earths nd surie (with the ‘exception of Arsarcics), These region are cle food production unt (FPLs).Produson and demand ‘alaonsips in countries ar kd rough intentional trade flows The model smlates growth in erop producion, determined by eropandinput prices, extrallydetarmined rates of productiy growth and area ‘expansion investment in icrigtion, and water avait Demand ra fancon of pices, income, and pops: ‘on growth and contains four eacgories of commodity erané-—food fod biofuel, and other ues The 2009 ‘version ofthe model ncider a hydrology model an nk othe DecionSuppore Sytem for Agrotechnology “Transfor(DSSAT) crop-imulation model wth il fet f ciate change a 05-degre incervasagarepted up tw the food producton-un lve

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Because cimate-chango simulations are inheronty uncertain wo climate model hve been vsed to ‘Smut future climate, using the A2® scenario of the IPCs Fourth Assessment Report: the National ‘Center for Atmospheric Research, US (NCAR) model spd the Commonwealth Siete snd Industral Research Organiantion, Austin (CSIRO) model We refer t the combintion of model rns wth A2 inputs sẽ the NCAR and CSIRO scenarios Both scenarios Proec higher temperatures in 2050, resuling a higher ‘eaporation and increased precipeation as this water

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eee 00-2050

[A quick glance a these figures shows tha substan ‘iterences exit across the two seanarios For example, the NCAR scenario has subsentaly Ngher average maximum temperatures than does CSIRO, ‘The CSIRO scenario hae subrant precipitation Aecines inthe wescrn Amazon while NCAR shows ‘cies inthe eastern Amazon, The NCAR scenario

has higher predptation in Sub-Saharan Afra than does CSIRO Northern Chin has both higher temperature and more precipitation under NCAR than under CSIRO These figures qualtaielyiurtate the range of potent climate outcomes using current modeling capitis and provide an inccation ofthe uncertainty

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Impacts of Climate Change

T: Inpscts of climate change on agriculture and human wel-beng include: |) che biologeal effets on crop yield; 2} the resuking inpaces on outcomes including pres, production and consumption: and 3) ‘the impacts on per capa calorie consumption and child malucrkion.The biophysical elects of eimate change ‘on apreuture induce changes in production and prices, which phy out dvough the economic system as farmers nd other market partepants adjust autonomous string crop mis nput use, production food demand, ood ‘consumption, and ere,

1 The Biological Effects of Climate Change on Yields

ing emperatures and changes in afl pacers fave det elec on crop yea wel a indrece fects tough changes Frigton wer ashy

Direct effects on yields rainfed and irgated crops ‘Table | vapors the direct bioloEEl sfecd of the ‘wo climate-change scenarios on erop yields modeled irc wih DSSAT for raed and irigatd crops developing and developed countres¢ with and wehout (CO fertaion (CF and No CF)? These rests are created by “growing” each crop around the world at 0S.degresintervas with 2000 climate, growing ther agai wah 3 2080 scenario vale, and then ealelting the ration ther words, no economic adjustments are included The rainfed yet changes are even by both precptation and temperature changes the irrigated Yel ffecs are from temperature changes alone In developing countries, yield dacines predominate for most erops without CO: fertlation rigated wheat and rgaed rie are especialy hard hie On average, yell in developed counties are aflcted less ‘than those in developing couneris For a fw crops climate change actualy increases developed-country elds In alvin these projections, che Eat Asia and Paci ego combines China, which s temperate for the mest part and Southeast Asi which wopial “The diferenal fects ofclinite change in these wo clenate zones are concealed In Chins, some crope re rsaronably well bene higher fture temperstiree sr fvorsble i locations where current rommperstures

area the low end ofthe crops optimal comperature ‘Yields of important crops n Suthess Asa fll substan in both scenarls unless CO; fertllation is eflecve In farmer el ‘South Asi i particularly hard hit by climate hangs For almost all crop the region withthe _rsrtert yield devine Wth CO, fertiaation, the Yelddacines are lower many loeition, some eld nereases occur relate to 2000, However, Falnfed maize and rigated and rainfed wheat stil ee substancl areas of reduced yeds Sub-Saharan Ali oer mixed osu, with small decnes or increases in maiz yields and large negative offcts on rainfed ‘wheat The Latin America and Caribbean region ako has mice yield effects, with some crop up slighty and some down,

Indirect effects ligated crops

imac change wil have a rece impact on water sally for rgaed crops ncrnal renewable water (URW) ithe water avaliable from precpkation Both climate seenrios re m mare precipitation aver Ind ‘than would orcur with no climate change Under the [NCAR scenario, al regions experiance increased IRW

Under the CSIRO scenario, the average IRV irene eles than occurs with NCAR, andthe Middle Eset nd Nenh Arks and Sob-Sharan Afiea regions both ‘experience reduclons of about 4 percent In addon eo preciptation changes climate “hange-ndced higher temperatures invents the ‘water requirements of crops The ratio of water Consumption co requirements is clledivgaion

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ha ty crop and management system, X change from teen CSIRO Ne€F——_ NGARNGEE sno cr Nearer an rated eed 0 8 4 a1 Derloedcouees 2 12 86 Devlin a = % a8 — Đenlephgcesrle a4 + ¬ Devloped cones as 10s số Denlinger = 4 as “ Denlinger 03 an oa ana Desloped cover a7 “49 3 ¬i Wat, rainfed Democrat “14 = 3 as Desens core 31 2 » % =.n

NET nà a a eee i i drat ie re ed

(et anon CP yeh COs eelsen ke cHer CÓ, em [Across the group of developing countries WSR

Improves under the NCAR seenario and worsens tinder the CSIRO scenario However regional <iferencation of climate-change oes important WSR improves slighty for the Latin Americ and Caribbean region and for the Middle East and Noreh ‘Area, but worsens slightly for Sub-Saharan Afrea tinder both scenario For Est Ala and the Pacific and for South Ari, reinbilty incresres under the NCAR scenario but declines under the CSIRO scenario, Yield reductions of erignted crops due co water stress are dectyestinaced in the hydrology portion (of IMPACT, taking into account the growing demand for water ouside aricleure as wall as agrieulturl demands As expected, rgated yaa lores due to ater sre ae rbtively higher under the CSIRO seensrio than the NCAR scenario, For example in

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2 Prices, Production, and Food Consumption Prices

World prices area useful single indeator ofthe eects of elite change on areaure, Table 2 reports the fects of the two climate-change scenarios on world

food prices, with nd without CO; fertlmtio to report the effects with no climate change Figures 3 and 4 demonstrate world price effects fr livestock production and major grains, respectively assuming no > endierien ‘With no climate change, word prices for the most important ariukuralerope—riee, wheat maze, {nd soybeans wil increase between 2000 and 2050, ‘riven by population and income grovh and biofuels demand Even with no ciate change, che price of ce would rise by 62 percene maize by 63 percent, soybeans by 72 percent and wheat by 39 percent ‘Climate change rents in sddional price mereases— 2 total of 32 t9 37 percent for rice, 2 t0 $5 percent for maize, 94 t0 II] percent for wheat and |! t0 14 percent fr soybeans CO, ertilaation it flectve in farmers’ fields, thet 2050 prices are 10 pereene smal

Livestock are not dreuy feted by climate change inthe IMPACT model but the effecs of higher food prices caused by climate change pass through to inestock.resuking in higher meat prices For exampl beet prices are 33 percent higher by 2050 with no climate change and 60 percent higher with climate change and no CO; fertizatlon oferops With CO; fertiteston crop-price ncrenmes ae bs, 90 the beel> price inereate is about 15 percent ers chan with no CO; erdizadon

Production

‘alle 3 reports the effects of climate change on ‘r0p production in 2050 compared to production without ciate change, based onthe NCAR and [CSIRO scenarios, accounting for both the direct changes yield and area caused by clmate change and autonomous adaption a farmers respond to changing Prices with changes in erop mand Input ute The agave flees of climate change on crop prodiction re erpecily pronounce in Sub-Saharan Aca and South Anh In South A, the climate scenario revit Ina l4parcene decine in rice production relive toi

the no-clemate-change scenario, đeeine m he production, and 3 9-20 19-porcent 3 44 t0 49.percont ‘al in mize production, In Sub-Saharan Afi, the Fie, wheat, and maze yield dectines with climate ‘ange are I5 percent 4 percent and 10 percent, respectively, For East Ai and the Paci, the results are mixed and depend on both the erop andthe model used Ree production decines by around 10

percent, wheat production increases slighty, and maize production declines wich the drier CSIRO scenario but increases withthe NCAR scenario Comparing sverage production changes, developing countries fre ‘worse forall rope under both the CSIRO and NCAR *eetrior than do develope countre

Food Consumption

‘Agrcueural output used for human consumption determined by the Inceraction of supply demand and the resting prices with invideal preferences and income Table 4 shows average per capita consumption ‘of cereale and ment products in 2000 and in 2050, under che CSIRO and NCAR models, wich and ‘without CO; ferllzatio Ie also reports consumption ‘with no climate change ‘Without climate change slag per capita income results in reduced declines in per capita consumption ‘of corse in developing countries between 2000 and 2050 and increased mess consumption increases, wh the meat increases more than offeting the decline a ‘eres Climate change reduces the growth in meat ‘onsumpalon slighly and equses 2 more substantl al inthe coneumption of cereals There resus are the first indication of tho negative walfire effects due to mate chang Boch models have simiar eects, 3 Per Capita Calorie Consumption

and Child Malnutrition

“The primary mensures used forthe elects of climate change on human welare ae thẻ chang In eslorie avaiablty and the change ithe number ‘of malnourished chidren borweon 2000 and 2050, without climate change, 2nd in 2050 using the two limate-change scenarios “The decining consumption of eral wansltes bo simiarty arg declines i alors as

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tdreughee the woHM4beheeen 100 and 3050 The 2000 levee throughout the word For the average largest crease, of 13.8 percent iin Est Ava and the consumer ina developing country, the decie ie Paci but thre are gine forthe average consumerin all 10 percent relative to 2000, With CO: eration, ‘ounries—by 37 perantin Latin Amerie, 59 percent in the declines ae 3 percent to 7 percent less severe,

Sub-Ssharan Ae and 97 percent in South Aa, ‘With climate change, however calorie walablity _scenaro.There I almost no diference in alorie but are sil lrge relative so the na-clmate-change 1m 2080 snot aly lower than the no-imate-change outcome between the tw climate scenario scenario in 2050 actualy decines relative to

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Develped cuit ie mo a a

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South Asa Exac Ava Europe and Late Ameren Middle Ent Sub-Saharan Developing 2000 No cimate Change E]NCAR BỊCsRO eee ae eee “` ẻ seen ar 38h S48 — 1O 25H soto _eliny Sealey _Aeaey “ino Sey a

ahd Pe opin Colt ten Gan male 3a? on 3a82 ” a „

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Costs of Adaptation

C ange adaption is inereasingy on the agenda of eesearchers poleymalers, and program ovelopers who are awars thc clmace change i real and threatens to undermine socal and ecological suscnabiliy In agrieulture, adaptation efforts focus on implementing measures that help build rua ivehosds that are more resent to climate varabiley and dlasterThis section provides an assessment ofthe costs of productieyenhancing investments agricultural research rural roads and eigation infastructure and efiency ‘hat can help farmers adap co climate change Fist, regardless of climate-change scenario, aglclure wil be negatively fected by climate change

Climate change increase child mainvsron and reduces ‘alors conamption dramatically, Thus agressive apriculural producti invescments are needed to rate calorie consumption enough to ofbet the negate lmpaces af climate-change on dhe helh and wel-being of hilren In order to apres the core of adopttion alone, tes imporcanc to identi agricultural productivity invesements that reduce child malntrsion with clinace change eo no-cimate-change levels, holding all other macro changes constant such as income nd population growth Two scenarios are asterted, The ft shown in Table 7, focuses on developing counerer and detrives the investments needed to Feduce chidhood malnutrition close to level & would be withou climatechange The cos estimates are

based only on productity-enhancing investment in developing countries The second experiment involves Including addtional productivity enhancements in developed countries ro atess the potenti for spillovers inthe developing wold Table 8 reports the effec on daly per apes ‘lorie sainbilty fr these bwo scenarios Table 9 reports che results fr child malnutrition forthe ‘wo climate models relative to the no-clinate- change scenario Figures 6 and 7 are graphs of the malnutrdon counts forthe various developing ounery rion before and afer the producti: enhancing investments Fall Table 10 reports the snnualzed addtional inverement costs needed to ounceract the effects ofclnate change on chiren

0 perennerne a rp ep yd roth raring `

2E pacers rtd be sr Is pace deed fod tn rom

[spectre Eth ter cee y 250

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Ce Sue “PER otra Se “Poem strane Ông as 307 aah TÊN 2N A8 ` ==, 3277 3382298839226 NGÀN ame 19 ask 365 156 l6 H6

ean + asi isl 87292908 aa] 268

NGAR+* as 1190 CON sour HƠI BẦU H5

can THẾ BA C395 HN BƠ ola

cho + as ja «320 an 29k 24s 280

cso TẠN 32413285 doe BÓN ee 2800

Sous Cy ar NSE NEAT and CSRS cea ravi rr in eign NCAR SRO

TS cheep ete a cng oct

tative investments (millon children) oes ee eR ee ee ca 7100 mơ, In Nedinatechnge S229 1007274581041

NGAR+ SA l8 30E 49 l7 4489 ll8EP

cso + sno ++ so sos lose 288 arse 488 l8 18 tis 88 104 Seve Comedy RESNCIN ri Cons itor ty ae psy nt nit ping mk NCAR +a CSEO

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Ễ 3

South Ans ‘Sut-Sataran Are

{2.2000 No ciate Change EINCAR BlNCAR+ E]csRo NIcsno

Sev Cn ater

America and the Caribbean, and Middle East and North Africa

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‘As shown in Table 10, the addtional anneal investments needed to return the child malnutrition ‘numbers tothe no climate-change resus are $7 bllon under the wetcer NCAR seenario and $73 bllon under the dier CSIRO seerato Sub Saharan Arean investment needs dominate, making up about 40 percet of the eta Of chat ammount, the vast “gioi for ral roads South Aria inverters are shout $15 bition per yer with Latin Ameria and the Caribbean clase behind ith about $1.2 co $1.3 bilon per year Est Ase and the Pace neads are just under SI bill per year Agrieukural research i important bt allehree of those regions 36 ar rigation investment Unlike Sub-Saharan Aries, road investments in those rglons ar relatively smal

‘Wit ational invesimencs in developed couneres, spillover effects to the developing world reduce the need for adaptation vestments sigh For example, with the NCAR scenario, the anal investment need is $7 lien produetviy txpendiures are ony inthe developing world With

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Conclusion

“These stark results suggest the folowing peley anđ cogram reeetnendaene:

+ Desig and implement good overall development + Make agricultural adspraton a key agenda pole polis and programs ‘within the international nate negotation process + tnerense investmenea nana producti + Recognize that enhanced food seer and climate + Relmvignrace national reiearch nd extension ‘change aapestion ge hand in Hand

programs, + Supporecommuniy-based adapation strategies

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Notes

‘World Bank 2008,

Al dollars are 2000 US dors unless otherwise indicated For fll description ofthe methodology se Appendix | wwräpriengzkesldehuldfiepublietenepr2lappl-pđ),

Rosegran ec a 2008,

See Append L (vvexfpriorgtte:ldehulofledpubiotionspr3Iappl.pÄf for description of A2 scenario, “To se the results for the fll World Bank replonal grouping of countries see Table A2.| in Append 2 (ewwitprorgskesidetalutes/publiaionspr2lapp2 pa)

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References

Fam.S,P Hazeland S Thons,998.Gơemnentsbenó- Ing growth and povertAn anal of merinkoges a ‘ural rd Environment and Production Technology Division Discussion Paper 33 Washington, D International Food Policy Research Institute Hie Nand A.A Keller "ol for rurtsinabe water reroureer management 2008 fective fficincy a 2

Journal ofthe Amencon Weer Resouces Associion T0 1752-1688

IPCC etal 2007 cimate change 2007: Impocs,odap- taton and wihrebly Conteibution of Working {Group to the Fourth Asseasment Report ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cam- bridge, UK: Cambridge University Pres

Jones), Hoogenboom,C.H Portes K.Boote, 'W.O Batchelor LA Hunt, PY Wilkens, U Singh, ‘AJ Gisman,and Ritchie The DSSAT cropping ‘stem model 2003 European Journal of gronony [e3-4): 235-265, Kelle A and Kellar 1995, fective efelancy:A water tse eoncept for allocating freshwater resources

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