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Hoi Dia Iy Viet Nam Da; hgc Thai I DANH GIA C O CAU DAN SO TINH T I £ N GIANG QUA HAI CUQC TONG BIEU TRA D A N SO VA NHA 1999, 2009 Hujnh Phim Dung Phit', Nguyin Kim H6ng, Dam Nguygn Thiiy Duong, Pham Dd Van Trung Abstract Assessment of the Tien Giang province's population structure through the population and housing census 1999, 2009 The population structure of Tien Giang province has had significant changes over the two censuses population and housing The change in ihe population structure by age by gender or by society will have most impact on the process of eco-social development as well as in the present and juture This artide assessment of changes in Tien Giang province's population structure from 1999 to 2009 in order lo proposing solutions to exploit the population income, contributing to eco-social development I.DATVANDE Co ciu din sd la mdt phin quan tipng tiong nghign eim din sd hpc, day ciing la ygu t6 cd nhung tic dpng nhit djnh din qua trinh phat trign kinh td - xa hdi cua mpt qudc gia hay mpt dia phuang Kit qua hai cupc Tong diiu tia din so vi nha d cho thiy tinh Tign Giang dang tiai qua nhiing bien ddi quan tipng cp cau dan sd Dinh gia dupc hign trang ca cau dan sd sg thiy dupc thdi CO cung nhu nhiing sire gp ddi vdi phit trign kinh te - xa h^i Bii viet budc dau danh gii nhung chuyin bien cua ca ciu dan sd tinh Tiin Giang theo tudi, theo gidi hay theo xa hpi ttong giai dogn 1999 - 2009 lam co sd cho cic cip thim quyen de nhiing giii phip phii hpp di tan dyng m$t each higu qui nhiing lgi tiic co ciu dan sd mang lgi, tii dd cd nhung diiu chmh phii hgp tiong chinh sich phat trign kinh tg - xS hdi tiong thdi gian tdi NOI DUNG NGHIEN CUU 2.1 Cff ciu dan s6 theo tudi tinh Tien Giang giai dogn 1999 - 2009 Bang Cacdu ddn sd theo nhdm tuoi linh Tien Giang giai dogn 1999-2009 (Dan vi: %) NhAm tuoi 1999 2009 0-14 29,9 24,1 15-59 62,1 66,4 6(H- 8,0 9,5 Ngudn:Xaiita[lJ.[3] Bang eho thay ca ciu dan sd theo tudi tinh Tiin Giang mang dgc diim co cau tig vdi ti tipng ngudi tir 60 tiidi tid lgn d dudi miic 10% Tuy nhien, co cau din sd theo tudi cua tinh Tiin Giang dang cd sy biin ddi theo xu hudng gii hda Biiu hien d ti trpng din sd tiong nhdm - tudi giim 5,8% tir 29,9% nam 1999 xudng cdn 24,1% nim 2009 (dudi mire 25%) Trong khoing thdi gian tiiong iing, ti tipng ciia nhdm - tudi ting 4,3% v i nhdm 60 tudi tid Ien tiing 1,5% Chi sd gia hda cung tang 13,3%, tii 26,7% nim 1999 Ien 40,0% nim 2009, cao han miic binh quin cua vimg Ddng bing sdng Cuu Long (34,6%) va ci nude (35,5%) [5] Qua dd, cd till thiy, qua tiinh gia hda din sd dang diln nhanh vi thupc nhom eao ciia ci nude Xgt ve ti sd phy thudc, ci hai nhdm tudi phu thuOc diu dang cd nhiing biin ehuyen theo hudng ngupe chiiu tiii hign d bing ' Dgi hgc SuphgmThdi Nguyin Kp yiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn tha Dai hpc Thii Nguyen Hoi Dia 1;^ Vi§t Nam Bdng Ti sd ddn sd phu thupc tinh Tiin Giang giai doan 1999 - 2009 (Dan vi: %) — T! so phv thudc trg Ti so phu thuoc gia Ti s6 phu thuoc chung 1999 46,6 9,1 55,7 2009 33,7 10,0 43,7 Ngudn: Xa 11 tu [1], [3] Ti tipng nhdm - tudi giim xudng da lim cho ti sd phy thudc tie cung giim theo mgnh len den 12,9%, tii 46,6% nam 1999 xudng cdn 33,7% nam 2009; thip hon miic trung binh cia viing Ddng bing sdng Cihi Long la 35,8% vi ca nude 35,4% [5] Trong dd, ti sd phu thudc gia hiy chi tang nhg 0,9% tir 9,1% nim 1999 len 10,0% nam 2009 nhung lai cao ban muc binh quin cua viing Ddng bing sdng Ciiu Long (8,5%) va ci nude (9,3%) Diiu niy da lim cho ti sd phy thudc chung giam nhanh qua cic nim; cy the da giim 12,0% tir 55,7% nam 1999 xudng cdn 43,7% nam 2009 Ti sd niy thip hem ca nude (44,7%) nhung vin cao ban so vdi vimg Dong bing sdng Ciiu Long (42,3%) Tign Giang budc vio thdi ki ca can dan sd "vang" ti sd phu thupc chung xudng dudi miic 50% [4] md ca hdi vd ciing t h u ^ Igi cho qui trinh phit tiiin kinh te - x3 hdi ciia tinh Hinh I Thdp ddn sd tinh Tiin Giang ndm 1999 vd 2009 Qua hai tiiip dan sd tinh Tiin Giang nim 1999 v i 2009, hinh dang thip tudi tiiay ddi tir kiiu md ipng sang kiiu thu hep i>hin chin thip thu hgp Igi kha rd; phin thin thip din dn djnh va ddng deu giua cac nhdm tudi; phin dinh thap md rdng han nhung khdng ding kg Ndi cich khic, phan nira tign ciia thip dang md r^ng cdn phin niia dudi ciia thip dang thu hgp lai Bay cung Ii bi^u hifn dae trung cho sy biin ddi theo xu hudng gia hda tiong co cau dan sd theo tudi cia tinh Tiin Giang Trong cau tnic ctia ting nhdm tudi ciing cd sy bien ddi Nhin chung, ty tipng cua dp hidi dudi 35 tudi giim di cdn cac dp hidi tidn 35 tudi diu tan^ Idn Tit ca cic nhdm tudi tiong nhdm 14 hidi diu cd xu hudng giim Trong do, nhdm 0-4 hidi giim it nhat v i khdng ding kl, t i 8,0% xudng 7,9%; iihdnr5-'9 tuSfgiain kha nhanh tii 10,1% xudng 8,1%; nhdm 10-14 tudi giam nhanh nhit tir 11,9% xudng 8%, giim 3,9% Diy li diu higu cho thay xu hudng gia tang h^ lai cua nhdm tie so sinh sau thdi ki giim tic dOng cua chinh saeh dan sd Cic nhdm tudi nhdm 15-59 hidi CO sy biin dOng ting giim khic Cy thi, nhdm 15-19 ttidi giim mgnh nhit li 3,2% tii 11,4% xudng 8,2%; cic nhdm tiidi cdn lgi giim nhg tiong khoing tii 1% din 1,5% Nhdm 35-39 tudi ting tiiTp nhit, tir 7,2% Idn 8,5% (ting 1,3%); ting cao nhit (2,9%) la nhdm 40-44 tiidi tir 5,9% Ien 8,8%; cic nhdm hidi cdn Igi ting tiong khoing tii 1,5% den 2% Cic nhdm tudi tiong nhdm tii 60 tudi tid len diu ting nhung kha chgm, chi tii 0.1% din 0,5% Kpyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn thu Dai hpc Thii Nguyen H6i Dia ly Viet Nam Nhirng bien ddi co cau dan sd theo tudi nhu trgn se cd nhirng tie ddng sau sac den phSt tnen kinh ti - xa hdi tinh Tiin Giang Thugn lgi day tign the hien d ti sd phy thupc dat d mire thap, hai ngudi dp mdi Iao ddng chi phai ganh da mot ngudi phu thudc Dieu kign cho phe|i gia tang lyc lupng lao ddng, Ii thdi co thuan lpi cho tich luy vdn vi giim thiiu nhiing chi phi doi vdi nhdm dan sd phy thudc Ti tipng nhdm 0-14 tudi giam xudng da phan nao giira dupc siic ^p gia tang dan sd, giim thiiu tnrdc mat nhirng chi phi ddi vdi cic van dg y tg, giio due va dio tgo bac tiiu hpc Tan dung ca hdi di tap trung ngudn luc xa hpi, nang cao digu kien chim sdc cho thg he tie nhu cii thifn chit lugng djch vu giao due va y ti cho thigu nign, qua dd cai thign chSt iupng ciia lyc lugng Iao ddng tuang lai Ben egnh dd, ti tipng nhdm ngudi trgn 60 tudi dang tang len ciing nhu cac ehi sd gia hda hay chi so phu thupc gii cua tinh hifn diu dang cao hon mdc trung binh ciia vimg Ddng bing sdng Cim Long la vin de can dupc luu y Ngu khdng giai quyit dupe vigc lim cho nhdm tudi lao ddng se rit khd khan tiong vigc dam bao cac chg dd phiic Ipi xi hpi ddi vdi ngudi gia Thuan lpi tiui hai dd la co ciu dan sd "vang" tgo mpt ngudn Iao dpng ddi dio, phuc vu tryc tiip cho nhu ciu phat tiign kinh tg - xa hdi cua tinh, d^c bift tiong bdi canh qua trinh cong nghigp hda, hign dgi hda dang dien mgnh me nhu hign Vin de dat la tinh can phai co nhiing ki hogch cy thg de ddn dau va tan dyng tdt nhat nhiing Ipi tiic dp ca cau dan sd "ving" mang lgi Tuy nhien, ngudn Iao ddng ddng v i tang nhanh cung se tgo nen siic ep vi vifc lira dii vdi phat triin kinh tg - xa hdi Diiu ddi hdi qua trinh phat trign kinh te ciia tinh cin gin liin vdi vice tao nhiiu co hpi vigc lam ban niia cho ngudn Iao ddng tang them Diy Ii van de mi tinh Tiin Giang cin phii quan tam tiong chiin lupc phit tiiin kinh te - xa hdi, vi ngudn nhin lye se la nhan td quyit djnh dgn viec hoin thinh hay khdng myc tigu d i dg Ii ca bin trd tinh edng nghif p trudc nam 2020 tii hai ddn ba nam Trong dd, tinh cin tap trung cic bign phip ning cao ch5t lupng giao dye, dao tgo nghe, de nang cao nang tham gia lyc lupng Iao dpng eho ngufin lao ddng mdi tang them 2.2 Cff ciu dan sd theo gidi tinh Tien Giang giai doan 1999 - 2009 Bdng Ca cdu ddn so theo gidi tinh Tiin Giang giai dogn 1999 - 2009 1999 2005 2009 Ti so giM ti'nh (nam/nO-) 93,7 94,1 96,6 Ti so gidi tiuh I{hi sinh (nam/nSt) 105 107 111 Nguon: Xir li tir [I], [2] vd [3] Trong giai doan 1999 - 2009, co c4u dan so theo gidi ciia tinh Tien Giang co sir chuyen bien theo huong tang ti so gioi tinh (nam/nii), cho thiy dSn so nam dang tang nhanh hon so voi dan s6 nil Ti so gioi tmh ting ISn tir 93,7% nam 1999 len 94,1% nSm 2005 va d^t 96,6% nSm 2009, thSp hon muc binh quan cua ca nuoc (97,6%) [5] Mgt d^c di6m cSn luu y la ti s6 gidi tinh a giai doan sau co svt bi6n chuyta manh hon giai doan tmdc Cu the, tir nam 1999 d6n 2005, ti s6 gidi tinh chi tang them 0,4% nhung tC( nam 2005 d6n nim 2011, ti s8 gidi tinh da tang 2,8%, cao hon nhieu so vdi giai d o ^ trudc dd Nguyen nhSn c6a dae diSm la su thay ddi cua ti s6 gidi tinh sinh Bang cho thay su thay doi cua ti s6 gidi tinh tinh Tien Giang frong giai doan 1999 - 2009 Ti s6 gidi tinh siill cua tinh tSngien tir lOinSmlSSaien 111 nSm 2009,14 chi s6 cao nhat cac tinh viing Dong hang song Cuu Long (nam 2009, vung Ddng bSng song Ciru Long d mire 110,1 va ca nude 14 110,6 [6]) Tir nSm 1999 dSn nam 2003, ti s6 gidi tinh sinh ciia tinh luon tri mdc sinh hgc binh thudng (nSm khoing tirl04 - 106 [6]) Tft nam 2005, bjt dju tJng ISn tr&i mire binh thudng va tiep tuc tang len nhanh nhiing nam ti6p theo Bac dijm niji li giii tai dSn s6 nam cang tang nhanh hon dan s6 nir va lam cho ti s6 gidi tinh co su biSn chuyen nhanh hon giai (lo?n tir nam 2005 iin DJc diem cho thiy van ih ehenh lech gidi tinh cua tinh dang c6 dau hieu cing gia tang d dp tudi mdi sinh Tinh cin cd nhirng bito phip kifon soat chjit cM_ ^ ^ Ky y&u H^i nghi Khoa hoc Dia ty toan quoclan thirl HQi Dja l^ Vift Nam Dai hpc Thai Nguyen hoat ddng eiia cac ca sd cung cip dich vu lya chpn gidi tinh thai nhi va Iinh ddng chinh sach khuygn khich sinh gii nhu hd trg y te, giao dye cho gia dinh sinh tie em gai Nhu vay, thdng qua hai chi sd die tnmg cho co cau dan so theo gidi dd la ti sd gidi tinh va ti so gidi tinh sinh, chung ta c6 thg nit mpt die digm quan tipng co cau dan so theo gidi eiia tinh Tign Giang la dan sd nam dang tang nhanh han so vdi dan sd nu, dae bigt d dp tudi mdi sinh Dieu se anh hudng tryc tiep va tgo nguy co mat can bang gidi tinh cua tinh vi lau vg dai Diy li mdt dau higu dang bio dpng ma tinh Tien Giang can phai cd nhiing giai phap cu the de digu chinh kjp thdi 23 Cff cau dan so theo x3 hoi tinh Tien Giang giai doan 1999 - 2009 2.3.1 Cacau dan so theo lao dpng Bdng Qui md ca cdu ngudn lao dpng tinh Tien Giang ndm 1999 vd 2009 1999 Ngucri 2009 % Ngudi % Dan so ho^t d$ng kinh 818.800 84,3 920.699 85,9 - Dang lam viec 788.811 81,2 888.882 83,0 - Thitnghi?p 29.989 31.817 2,9 Dan s6 khong hoat dong kinh te 153.064 3,1 15,7 150.782 14,1 - Di hpc 62.251 6,4 62.494 5,8 - Npi trp 75.854 7,8 67.806 6,3 ~ Khong cd kha nang lao dpng 7.455 0,7 7.603 0,7 - Khdng cd nhu ciu lao ddng 7.504 0,8 3.549 0,3 Ngudn [1], [3] Dan sd tiong tudi Iao ddng chia theo logi hogt dpng tinh Tign Giang cd sd lupng dan sd hogt dgng kinh ti ddng, ting nhanh va chigm ti tipng cao Tii nam 1999 din nam 2009, dan sd hogt dOng kmh ti cua tinh da tang tii 818.800 ngudi len 920.699 ngudi, tang khoang 102.000 ngudi Nim 2009, dan so hogt ddng kinh ti chigm tdi 85,9% dan so cua tinh Tiong do, chu yeu li dan sd dang lim vifc vdi sd lugng gin 890.000 ngudi, ehiim 55,4% din sd eiia tinh v i ciing tang nhanh Qua 10 nam, din sd dang lim vifc tang Ien khoang 100.000 ngudi Van de cdn tdn tgi chinh ti sd ngudi that nghigp cd diu higu tuang ddi lgc quan ti tipng giam, nam 2009 ehl chigm 2,9% din sd cua tinh nhung vi qui md Igi tang gin 2000 ngudi Dan so khdng boat dOng kinh ti cd chiiu hudng giam ci vi quy md va ti tipng Qua 10 nam, din so khdng boat ddng kinh te ciia tinh da giim 2.282 ngudi, den nam 2009 chi cdn chiem 14,1% dan so ciia tinh Trong dd, giim manh nhit thupc vg sd ngudi khdng cd nhu ciu Iao ddng v i ndi try Cy thg, sd ngudi khdng cd nhu ciu Iao ddng dS giim khoang 4.000 ngudi, so ngudi npi tig giim ban 8.000 ngudi Sd ngudi di hpc vin tii d miic fren 62.000 ngudi, chiim 5,8% din sd ciia tmh vao nam 2009 Sd ngudi khong cd ning Iao ddng chi chigm ti tipng nhd la 0,7% Nhu v§y, din sd khdng hogt ddng kinh tg cua tinh ehiim ti If tuang ddi tdng sd dan v i dang giim dto_quaj;iicjiamJrrDXig-d6,-Chuygu.li sy giim xudng eua nhdm dan sd khdng cd nhu eiu Iao dpng v4 nOi tiv, nhdm ngudi di hpc vin tii dn djnh D§c diim niy cho tiiiy nhu ciu Iao ddng ciia dan sd cang ting Ien hay ndi cich khac kha nang tham gia vip lyc Iupng Iao ddng cua din sd thih ngiy cing dupc cii thifn Biiu hign qua ti Ig tham gia vao lue lugng Iao ddng ciia tinh da tang lgn tii 81,2% nam 1999 len 83% nim 2009 Dgc diim niy cho thiy lyc lugng iao ddng eiia tinh nhiing nam sajj tdi s6 ngiy cang gia tang ban nxta Ciing vdi sy gia tang cua lyc lugng lao dpng mdi budc vip tudi lao dpng sS lim Kpyeu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn thu Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam Dai hpc Thii Nguyen cho luc lugng Iao ddng cua tinh cang them ddi dio va tang nhanh, dip ung cho nhu cau phit tiiin kinh tg tiong bdi cinh tinh Tiin Giang dang diy nhanh qua trinh cdng nghigp hda 2.3.2 Ca cSu ddn sd hogt dpng theo khu vu-c kinh te Ca ciu dan sd hoat ddng hay co ciu Iao dpng theo khu vyc kinh tg tinh Tien Giang giai dogn 1999 - 2009 dang cd sy chuyen djch theo hudng giira ti tipng lao dOng khu vyc I, ting ti tipng lao ddng tiong khu vyc II va III Ti tipng lao ddng tiong khu vye da giim 8,5% til 71,2% nam 1999 xudng cdn 62,7% nam 2009 Ti tipng Iao dpng tiong khu vuc 11 tang 3% tir 9,8% nim 1999 Ien 12,8% nim 2009 Ti trpng Iao dgng khu vyc HI cim^ tang 5,5% tii 19,1% nam 1999 lgn 24,6% nam 2009 [2] Nhin chung, xu hudng chuyin dich co cau Iao ddng nhu tien Ii tich cyc va phii hpp vdi xu hydng chuygn djch chung cua ca nude, my nhien, tdc dp chuyen djch cdn chgm Nguygn nhin la nen kinh ti ciia tinh van phy thupc qui nhieu vao sin xuit ndng nghiep khu vyc cong nghifp va djch vy lai chua thit sy phat triin de tgo duge nhigu vigc lam cho ngudi lao dpng Bgn cgnh dd, ngudi din vin chua cd nhieu kinh nghifm cung nhu trinh dp di chuyin ddi tir kinh ti ndng nghifp sang cac nginh kinh tg khac Nhin chung, co cau din sd theo tudi cua tinh Tien Giang mang dgc diem co cau dan sd tie nhung dang biin ddi theo xu hudng gii hda v i da budc vao thdi ki ca eau dan sd "ving" md rat nhiiu CO hdi ddi vdi su phit triin kmh ti - xa hdi Ca ciu din sd theo gidi ciing dang cd sy thay ddi theo hudng gia ting ti sd gidi tmh, nam gidi dang tang nhanh han, die bigt d dp tudi mdi sinh biiu hign qua ti sd gidi tinh sinh cua tinh dang tang lgn lign tyc Ca ciu din sd theo lao dOng dang cd nhiing chuyin biin tich cyc ddi vdi sy phit trien kinh tg - xi hpi m i nhdm dan sd hogt df ne kinh ti ting nhanh, d^c bigt la nhdm ngudi dang lira vigc, nhdm dan sd khdng hogt d^ng kinh te giam xudng Co eiu Iao ddng theo khu vyc kinh tg ciing dang cd sy chuygn djch tich eye nhien tdc dp chuyen dich cdn chim vi cin day mgnh ban niia tiong thdi gian tdi Dya tien ket qui di phan tich, cd thg nhgn thiy ring cd rit nhiiu Ipi tiic tii co ciu dan sd mang lgi ehp su phit trien kmh tg - xa h$i cua tinh dd Ii mdt ngudn lap dpng ddi dio cimg vdi ti If tham gia lye Iupng Iao ddng hiong ddi cao Ben cgnh dd, vin cdn tdn tgi nhihig hgn ehi nhu ti sd gidi tinh sinh hign dang d mu:c eao so vdi ca nude, dan sd dang gii hda nhung ngn kinh te chua dip img mpt each tdt nhat ve phiic Igi eho dan sd phy thupc dang ngiy cang tang Qua dd, tinh cin cd nhfing hf thdng giai phip ddng bp de cd the giii quyit nhung vin di tdn tai cua cp ciu dan sd nliim thiic diy qua tiinh phat trign kinh tg va nang cao chit lupng cudc sdng ngudi din thdi gian tdi TAI LI$U THAM KHAO Cyc Thdng kg tmh Tign Giang (2010), Ddn sd Tien Giang qua sd lieu tdng diiu tra ddn sd vd nhd dndm 2009, My Tho Cue Thdng ke tinh Tiin Giang (2010), Nien gidm thdng ke 2009 My Tho Tdng cue Thdng ke (2000), Tdng diiu tra dan sd vd nhd a Vipt Nam ndm 1999 (dia CD) Tdng cyc Thdng kg (2010), Tdng diiu tra ddn sd vd nhd a Vipt Nam ndm 2009: Cdc kit qud chu yeu, Nxb Thdng ke Tdng cyc Thdng_kg_(201^1), Cdu trite tudi - gidi tinh vd tinh trgng hdn nhdn ciia ddn sd Viet Nam Tdng dieu tra ddn sd vd nhd a Viet Nam nam 2009 Nxb Thdng ke Tong cyc Thdng ke (2011), Ty sd gi&i tinh sinh a Vipi Nam: Cdc bdng chimg mdi vi thuc trgng, xu hudng vd nhirng khde bipt, Tdng diiu tra ddn sd vd nhd d Viet Nam ndm 2009 Nxb Thdng kg Kpyeu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia ly todn qudc ldn thd ... Cyc Thdng kg tmh Tign Giang (2010), Ddn sd Tien Giang qua sd lieu tdng diiu tra ddn sd vd nhd dndm 2009, My Tho Cue Thdng ke tinh Tiin Giang (2010), Nien gidm thdng ke 2009 My Tho Tdng cue Thdng... tiiin kinh te - x3 hdi ciia tinh Hinh I Thdp ddn sd tinh Tiin Giang ndm 1999 vd 2009 Qua hai tiiip dan sd tinh Tiin Giang nim 1999 v i 2009, hinh dang thip tudi tiiay ddi tir kiiu md ipng sang kiiu... them 2.2 Cff ciu dan sd theo gidi tinh Tien Giang giai doan 1999 - 2009 Bdng Ca cdu ddn so theo gidi tinh Tiin Giang giai dogn 1999 - 2009 1999 2005 2009 Ti so giM ti'nh (nam/nO-) 93,7 94,1 96,6
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