Hdi Dia ly Viet Nam Bai hpc Thii Nguygn TINH HINH DAN SO NHAP CU^ VA M O T S BAC TRlTNG K^T CAU SINH HOC BAN S NHAP CU* THANH " P H C A N THO QUA CUOC T O N G BIl^U TRA DAN S VA NHA Cf NAM 1999 vA 2009 Pham Do Van Tmng, Huynh Pham Diing Phat, Nguyen Ha Quynh Giao Astract Immigration and it's sex and age structure in Can Tho city through the population and housing census in 1999 and 2009 Through analysing data from the population and housing census 1999 and 2009 immigrant population in Can Tho city increased rapidly, largely concentrated in urban area and main out - migrat area on Can Tho city was neighbour provinces in MeKong Delta region Besides the sex ratio of immigr population was low and decreased rapidly, especially rural area In addition the age selectivity of immigration was high and growing, especially domestic immigration type DAT VAN Dfi Thanh phd Can Tho la dd thi hgt nhan vfing Dong bing sdng Cim Long, cd y nghia cap qudc gia tiong he tiidng thi Viet Nam Trong qua trinh dd thj hda va phdt trien kinh t e - x a hpi, nhom dan sd n h ^ cu cfia phd CSn Tha tang lgn nhanh chdng Tdng dilu tra dan sd v i nha d duoc tiin hinh 10 ndm I lin, day Ii ngudn dfi ligu phong phu vi ddng tin cay nhit cho cac phan tich ve dan so Vi vay, van de phSn tich nguon dft lifu tiiong kg de tim hieu tinh hinh va ^ c tmng dan sd nhgp cu d phd Cin Tho cd y nghia quan tipng, nhdm xac lap co sd khoa hoc cho vigc djnh hudng chinh sich din so v i chien lupc phit trien kinh te-xa hdi cfta phd Can Tho co hifu qua ban TiNHHiNHDANSONHAPCUOTP C A N THO NAM 1999 VA 2009 Thinh phd Can Thp la tnmg tam cua vftng Dong bing sdng Cira Long, Can Tho ciing Id thj Idn nhit va cd ljch sft phat triln lau ddi, kit hpp vdi mgng ludi giao thong thugn tign, chinh vi vgy, thinh phd Cin Tha cd sftc hut ldn doi vdi cac luong di cu cua dan so, die bift nfi vftng Dong bing sdng Cftu Long Su bien ddng cua dan sd nhap cu d phd Cin Tho dupc thi hign rd qua sd lieu cua cudc Tong dieu tia dan sd, nha d nam 1999 v i 2009 (bing 1) Bingl Dan sd nhgp cud thinh phd Can The nam 1999 vd 2009, phan theo logi hinh nhgp cu vi dja bin cu tru 1999 2009 Thanh thi Nong thdn Tong Thinh thi Nong thon NMp cu noi bo 26340 41977 20317 46657 6615 Nhip cir nuoc 17354 12482 50465 5124 29836 NMp CII quoc te 240 156 396 99 14 Tong 43934 32955 92541 11752 76889 Tong 48592 55589 113 104293 Nguon: xft Ii tft {2], [31 Qua sd lieu dieu tra nam 1999 va 2009, phd Cin Tho cd them hon 27 ngan ngudi tu tuoi tid Ien n h ^ cu Toe dp tang dan sd nhap cu kha nhanh, trung binh 3,1%/nam, ning sd ngudi nhap eu tang tii 76.889 ngudi nam 1999 Ien 104.293 ngudi nam 2009 Ddng thdi, tinh hmh ludng nhap cu d Can T^ocdTihieulchac bigt thep dja bin cu tiu va Iogi hinh n h ^ cu 2.1 Theo dia bin cutrii Nam 1999, cd gin 44 ngin ngudi nh|^ cu den khu vyc thj phd Cin Tho, cao gap 1,3 Ian so Iupng tuong ftng den khu vyc ndng thdn Mgc du vay, tuong quan phan bd dan sd ab^ cu gifia thinh flu v i ndng thdn khdng qua each bigt (flianh flij - 57,1%, ndng flidn - 42,9%) Tuy nhien, den nara 2009, dan sd nhgp cu theo dja ban cu tni thay ddi rat nhanh chdng nhung flieo chieu hudng trii ngupc Dan sd nhgp cu d tiianh phd Cin Tha lya chpn khu vyc dotibijla dich d e n ^ g rit nhanh, vdi tdc dp tiung binh 7,7%/nam, guy md tang hpn Ian (bang I) Trong d6,_ Ky yiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn tha Dgi hpc Thai Nguyen Hfi Dia ly Vift Nam dan sd n h ^ cu d khu vyc ndng thdn giam vdi tdc dp nhanh hon, trung binh - 9,8%/nam nen quy mo giim gin 2/3 Do vay, khoang cich chenh lech phan bd dan sd nhgp cu flieo dia bdn thinh thi - ndng thdn tang tft 1,3 lan nim 1999 Ien 7,9 lin nam 2009 Ti le dan nhap cu thi tSng tu 57,1% nam 1999 lgn 88,7% nam 2009 tiong khu vyc ndng thdn giim tuang ftng tft 42,9% xudng cdn 11,3% Ndi each khac, niu nam 1999, eft 100 ngudi nhap cu sdng d ndng thdn cd 130 ngudi sdng d thi thi den nam 2009, ti If niy tucmg ftng Ii I00/~800 Nhu vgy kit qua nghien ciru eho thiy khu vyc dd thj thinh Can Tho da cd vai tro quan trpng vi cd sftc hut cang Idn ddi vdi ludng dan sd n h ^ cu tdi phd 2.2 Theo loai hinh nhap cu Ben cgnh dd, xet theo Iogi hinh nhap cu, ca ciu dan sd nhgp cu ndm 1999 vi 2009 da thg hifn su bien dpng Idn Ludng di ehuyen chft yeu cua ngudi nhap cu nam 1999 dign gifia cac don vi hinh ehinh ISnh thd phd Can Thp; ti Ig Nhgp cu ndi bp chilm 60,7%, Trong giai doan 1999 den 2009, quy md ddng Nhgp cu nOi bp gin nhu khdng thay doi, tdc tang tmng binh chi khoing 0,4%/nSm; dd, ddng Nhap cu nude tang lgn rat nhanh, vdi gin 26 ngdn ngudi v i tdc dp tang trung binh 6,4%/nim ttong quang thdi gian tuong ftng Vi vay, ti If logi binh Nhap cu npi bp giam 14,1 % v i logi hinh Nhap cu nude tang 14,5 % (ddng gdp 94% ttong tdng dan sd nhgp cu lang thgm giai dogn 1999 - 2009) (bing 2) Bdng Co cdu ddn sd nhgp cu d TP Cdn Tho theo logi hinh nhgp eu vd dia bdn cu trii ndm 1999 vd 2009 1999 2009 Thanh thi N6ng thdn Tong Thanh thi Ndng th6n Tong N l i ^ en noi b$ 60.0 61.7 60.7 45.4 56.3 46.6 Nhip cu tiong nu6c 39.5 37.9 38.8 54.5 43.6 53.3 NMpcuquSct^ 0.5 0.4 05 0.1 0.1 0.1 rtng 100 100 100 100 100 100 Ben cgnh dd, cac logi hinh nhgp cu ciing khic theo dja ban cu tru Nam 1999, du khu vyc thinh thj hay ndng thdn, ddng Nhgp cu ndi bp gift vai trd chu ^ Tuy nhien, den nam 2009, d khu vuc flij, tdc dp gia tang dan sd ludng Nhgp cu tiong nude rit nhanh, gip -2,4 ludng Nhgp cu npi bp (tiipng img 11,3%/nam va 4,8%/nara) nen tuong quan vai trd gifta logi hinh n h ^ cu niy thay ddi Trong dd, d khu vyc ndng thdn, tdc dO giim dan sd N h ^ cu ndi bO khdng nhanh ban nhilu so vdi loai hinh n h ^ cu cdn Igi nen tuang quan co eau thinh thi - ndng thdn giua cie logi hinh ahap cu giai dogn 1999 - 2009 cd thay doi nhung khdng nhieu nhu khu vyc thanhtiii(bing2) Xet ve dja ban xuit cu den thinh phd Can Tha cd su phan hda lit sau sic, phd Can Tho cd sftc hut Idn ddi vdi luong di cu ed quang each ngan, khoing 90% ngudi nhap cu den Can Tha di chuyin ehua den 300 km, phin Idn sd dan nhap eu den Can Tho xuit phit tu eic tinh lan cgn ngi vimg ddng bing sdng Ciiu Long v i xu hudng tang din Tdc dO gia tang dan so nhap cu til vimg ddng bing sdng Cim Long tang nhanh, tdc dp trung binh 7,8%/nam, nang quy md tang gan lin Tl trpng viing ddng bing sdng Cftu Long ttong tong dan so N h ^ cu nude tang tu 80,7%nlm~1999 len 86,1% nain^2009 Ben canh do, vfing Ddng Nam BO ludn dftng thft ve quy md iigudi n h ^ cu den Can TTio tiong ciuig thdi gian (bang 3) Co cau ddng gdp cfia cie vung tdng dan sd n h ^ cu cd nhieu thay doi Trong tong dan sd nhap cu den thinh phd Can Tho, vfing Dong bSng sdng Hdng cd quy md v i ti trpng ldn nhung day cung la $ a ban nhit ed tdc dp gia tang dan sd xuat cu den Cin Tho giim toin giai doan Tuy nhign, quy md ngudi nhap cu tfi Dong bang sdng Hong den khu vue dd thi thinh phd Can Tho van tang mue thu hut din nhap cu vftng niy din khu vuc ndng thdn giam nhanh chdng, tmng binh -13%/nam (bing 3) Kyyeu Hpi nghf Khoa hgc Dta ly todn qude ldn tha Bgi hoc Thii Nguyin Hoi Dia Iy Vift Nam Ben cgnh dd, vftng BSc Trung Bp la dia phuong cd tmygn thdng xuat cu, nen sd luong nguoi nhap cu den thinh phd Cin Tho khdng Idn nhung ti ttpng so vdi cic viing cdn lai tuong ddi cao Giai doan 1999 - 2009, tdc dp gia tang dan sd nhgp cu tft vimg Bic Tnmg BO r^ nhanh, tiung binh 6,4%/nam, gdp phan dua ti cua khu vyc Bac Tmng Bd vuot khu vuc Ddng bang sdng Hdng, ndm ttong nhdm vimg cd quy md ngudi n h ^ cu den phd Can Tho cao nhat nam 2009 (bang 3) Bang Dan so nhap cua Thanh phd Can Tha theo dio ban xudt ctt ( nam J999 va 2009) 2009 1999 Thanh thi Nong thoa Tong T h ^ h thi Nong thdn D6ng b ^ g song Hong 829 549 1378 1183 136 1319 Tmng du mien nui phia Bac 79 38 117 355 23 378 B i c Tning Bo 780 381 1161 1500 305 1805 Nam Tnmg Bo 193 80 273 648 55 703 Tay Nguyen 143 101 244 291 26 317 Dong Nam Bo 1357 1216 2573 2881 301 3182 D6ng bSng song Olu Long 13963 10102 24065 43606 4278 47884 17344 12467 29811 50465 5124 SSS89 Tong Ting Ngudn: xu li tit [2], [3J Quy md ddng nhiq) cu tft vimg Nam Tmng Bd, vung Tmng du v i mien nui phia Bic khong cao nhung cd xu hudng tang nhanh (tang tmng binh 9,9%/nim v i 12,4%/nam) ngn ti trpng dong gdp vao tong dan sd nhap cu den Can Tha tang lgn Mac dft vgy, lupng ngudi nhgp eu den Cin Tho tfi viing nay, cung vdi vung Tay Nguyen van lat nhd Thanh phd Cin Tho cang gia tang sftc hftt ddi vdi dan cu cac dja phuang khic ci nude, chftng td qui trinh dd thj hoa va phat triln kinh tl - jca hOi d thinh phd Can Tho cdng mgnh me, ciuig cd vai ttd thinh phd Can Tha ngiy cing ting Ien ttong he thdng dd thj qude gia Tuy nhign, sue hut cua thinh phd Cin Tha van edn nhilu hgn ehl, die biet mdi tuang quan vdi cic thinh Idn khac va eac dja phuong vimg kinh te nang dOng nhat nude Vi vay, dia ban n h ^ cu tmyen thdng den Can Tho van Ii eic tinh lan cgn Ddng thdi, Cin Tho till hign vai tid thj tiung tam vung Dong bing sdng Cuu Long rit rd net Bgn egnh dd, dong nhgp cu qudc tl d phd Cin Tho cd quy md rat nhd va giim din, ehftng td Cin Tho van li mOt dd flij trung binh, md nhgt hg thdng dd tiij qudc tl vi chi cd y nghTa qudc gia MOT S^^DAC TRUNG KET CAu SINH HQC CtlA DAN SO N H A P CU 3.1 Bac trung gidi tinh dan sd n h i p cir Ket qui nghien cftu eho thiy ti sd gidi tinh ttong dan sd nhgp cu d phd Can Tha co tinh chpn Ipc ro net va cd su phan hda giira cac logi hinh nhap cu, dja bin cu tni Ti sd gidi tinh tiong dan sd n h ^ cu d phd Can Tho thap va cd xu hudng cang giam Nam 1999, so Iupng nam nhap cu it hon nu khdng nhilu; nhien, tdc dO gia ting dan sd nhap eu gidi tinh nu giai dogn 1999 - 2009 tang g ^ lan so vdi gidi tinh nam (tuang ftng 4,1%/nam va 2,0%/nam) (bang 4) Vi vgy, ti sd gidi tinh tiong tdng dan sd nhip cu giim nhanh tfi 95,6% nam 1999 xudng_ Ky yiu Hpt ngM Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn tha Bai hoc Thii Nguyen Hoi Bia ly Viet Nam chi cdn 78,1% nam 2009 Dilu niy cd the duoc giii thich bdi mdt sd Ii i) phd CinThola dd thi vftng ndng nghiep rdng ldn nen cd the manh phdt trign cic nganh kinh tg su dung nhilu lao dpng nfi nhu cdng nghigp ehl biin luang thuc - thue pham, cdng nghiep sin xuat hang tieu dftng; ii) cac hogt ddng djch vy phii hop vdi nft phat tnen manh thai gian qua; iii) nu gidi tham gia nhigu hon vao cic ludng di cu vdi quang each ngan Bang Tl sd gicn linh ddn sd nhgp or phdn theo dia ban or Ink vd loai hinh nhqp cu, nam 1999 va 2009 1999 2009 T h i n h thi N6ng thon Tong Thanh thi Nong thon TSng Nhap cu ngi bo 88.3 78.3 83.8 76 50.7 72 Nhap cu nude 114.1 122.3 117.4 88.1 44.7 83 Tong 97 92.8 95 82.8 48.2 78.1 Ngudn: xu litu [2] [3] Ben cgnh dd, ti so gidi tinh gifta cac dia bin cu tni ciing cd nhieu bien ddi sau sie Khu vyc thj cd sue hut ddi vdi nam gidi n h ^ cu hon khu vyc ndng thdn nen ti sd gidi tinh khu vuc thdnh thj ludn cao ban khu vyc ndng thdn Tuy nhien, tmdc day boat dOng ndng nghigp van cd sue h ^ dan ngn nam gidi di cu den khu vuc ndng thdn nhieu Do vay, ehenh lech vl ti sd gidi tinh gifta khu vyc thinh thj va ndng thdn dan sd nhap cu d flianh phd Cin Tha nam 1999 khdng dang kl Theo thai gian, thdnh phd Cin Tha phat trien theo hudng cdng nghiep - djch vy, hoat dOng ndng nghigp giim dan, nen nam gidi chu yeu ebon di cu den khu vyc thinh thi Vi vay, tdc dp gidm dan so nhap cu gidi tinh nam d khu vyc ndng then giai dpan 1999 - 2009 dien rit nhanh, tmng binh -13,3%/nam (bing 4) Xet ve loai hinh nhgp eu, nam gidi tham gia di cu nhieu ban d nhiing quang cich xa ban Vi vay ti sd gidi tinh loai hinh Nhap cu tiong nude ludn cao hon loai hinh N h ^ cu npi bd Nam 1999, nam gidi chilm sd ddng loai hinh nhgp cu nude, dgc bigt d khu vyc ndng thdn Tuy nhien, sau 10 nam sy phan hda giua logi hinh nh?^ cu ve ti sd gidi tinh giam di nhanh chdng vai trd ciia nu gidi tang loai hinh Nhap cu nude (tdc dp tang trung binh 8,1 %/nam) (bing 4) Ti SP gidi tinh dan so nh£^ cu xet theo dja bin xuat cu thudng cao cac dong di cu quang each xa Ti sd gidi tinh cua vung Nam Trung Bd, Trung du mien niii phia BSc v i Ddng bang sdng Hdng dan diu va cao vuot tidi so vdi cdc khu vyc khac Mac du xu hudng ti so gidi tinh giim nhanh d tit ci eae viing nhung van ludn cd so dan n h ^ cu gidi tinh nam cao hon nft 3.2 B$c trung tudi dSn sd nhap cir 3.Z1 Tinh hinh chung Nhin ehung dan sd nhip cu din thinh phd Can Tho cd tinh chpn Ipc ve tudi rat cao, phin ldn dan sd n h ^ cu d phd Can Tho nam 1999 cd tudi rit tre, hon 76,9 ngan ngudi n h ^ cu, rigng nhdm tudi 15 - 29 chilm ban 41 ngin ngudi Dong thdi, giai doan 1999 - 2009, dan sd nhgp cu tiong nhdm tudi niy tang rat nhanh, tdc dp trung binh 4,5%/nam, eao hon khoing 1,5 Ian so vdi "toe dp ting tmng-hinirtdng dan sd n h ^ eu Vi vgy, ti tipng nhdm tiipi 15 - 29 tang tft 53,6% nam 1999 Ien lgn 61,2% nim 2009 (hinh I, hmh 2) Kpyiu Hpi nghi Khoa hgc Dia lp todn qudc ldn tha Igi Dia ly Vi?t Nam Dai hgc ThSi Nguyen Tinh chpn Igc vS tuoi ciia dan so nh^p cu cung c6 sir khac theo dja ban phan bo khu v\rc thj va c6 xu hucmg l?ch ve phia c6 nhom tuoi cao Hon nam 2009 Tuoi tning binh cua dan so nh?q) cu khu vuc nong th6n c6 xu hucmg tang len Nam 2009, nhom tuoi 30- 34 dimg thu ve ti dong gop tong dan so n h ^ cu nong thon, tuoi tnmg vi tang tudng ung tir 24 len 25 S\t phan hoa ve tinh chpn Ipc tuoi dan so nh§p cu den Can Tha giua dia ban thi va nong thon da g i ^ dang ke (hinh 3), -M-W^arnftb$_20l» -«-Nh|p at bong i[irdc_1999 -•-Nlilp at troBg inrdc_2009 Tinh chpn Ipc ve tuoi cua dan so loai hinh Nh^p cu npi bp ^3ap hoa lo^i hinh 'Nbsp cu mrdfc; nhomtrfrem va tiung-niefr tham gia nhi^u hon vao dong di chuyen dan cu npi bp Can TTio Trong lo&i hinh Nh?q) cu npi bp, tuoi trung binh cua dan nhap cu nam 2009 c6 xu huong tang nhanh so vdi nam 1999 (tuoi trung vi tang tuong ung tii 24 l§n 27); d6ng thai, tinh chpn Ipc ve nhom tuoi tham gia nhap cu g i ^ di Ti 1§ tre em thay doi ^ ban cu tru giua cac dan vi hanh chinh npi bp Can TTia c6 xu huong gi4m rat nhanh, tir 16,1% nSm 1999 xuong c6n 10,4% nam 2009 (hinh 3) Trong do, ti trpng nhom tuoi 40 - 54 co xu hucmg tang tir 11,4% nSm 1999 len 15,3% nam 2009 Ben canh do, tinh chpn Ipc ve nhom tuoi dSn so Nhgp cu n0i b$ Ky yiu H$i nghi Khoa hoc Dja /jJ to^ qu6c l&n thi ©?t hoc Thai Nguyen H6i Bia ly Vi|t Nam giua khu v^rc thj va nong thon khong c6 nhieu khac biet nam 1999 nhung c6 xu huong tang len a nam 2009 Tlieo quy Iu§l di dan, cr nhiing quang each di chuyen xa tinh chon Ipc dan so ro net hon Chi rieng nhom tuoi 20 - 24 da chiem khoang 1/3 tong dan so nhap cu va tang nhanh giai dean 1999 - 2009 vol t6c dp tnmg binh 8,6%/nam (hinh 3) Nhu vay, phan Ion dan tir cac tinh, khac nhap cu d6n Can TTio c6 tu6i rat tre nam 1999, khoang 2/3 dan so nhom tuoi 15 - 29 va tang len VA nam 2009 Ben canh do, xet ve dia ban cu tni, tinh chon loc ve tuoi cua dong nh|.p cu phan hoa thi - nong thon cang it ro net, 3.2.2 Theo nhom tuoi lao ddng Dan so nhl^ cu a Can Tha c6 sir phan hoa theo nhom tuoi lao dpng rat sau sac va CO s\f bien dpng theo thai gian Bang D&n so nhap cu o Can The phan theo nhom tuoi lao dong nam 1999 va 2009 1999 2009 Thanh thi Nong thdD Tong Thanh thi j Ndngthon T6ng 5387 5482 Dudi tuoi lao dong 10869 6329 957 7286 36797 26265 63062 Trong tuoi lao dong 83100 10424 93524 1655 Tren tuoi lao dong 1303 2958 3111 371 3483 43934 Tong 32955 76889 92541 11752 104294 Ngudn: xulitU [2], [3] Nam 1999, hon 76 ngan nguoi n h ^ cu o Can Ilia c6 hon 63 ngan ngucri dp tuoi lao dpng, chiem ti le 82% Trong 10 nam Can Tha thu hiit cang dong luc lupng lao dpng di cu, voi toe dp tang trung binh 4,0%/nam nen ti le nhpm tuoi lao dpng dan so nhi^ cu nam 2009 tang 16n gan 90% Ngupc 1^, nhom dan so duai tuoi lao dpng giam rat nhanh, (tnmg binh -3,9%/nam), nen ca quy mo va ti trpng cua nhom tuoi tucmg ung chi 7% nam 2009 Trong nhom dan so tren tuoi lao dpng c6 quy mo rat nho va tang voi toe cham, trung binh 1,6%/nam nen ti trpng giam nhe Do tuong quan giua cac nhom tuoi lao dpng thay doi nen ti so phu thupc dan so nh^p cu ciing thay doi, ti so phu thupc dan so nhap cu rat t h ^ va giam nhanh theo thai gian Neu nam 1999, trung binh c6 nguoi lao dpng nuoi nguoi phu thuoc thi den nam 2009, ti le la 9/1 Nguyen nhan chinh thiic day ti s6 phu thuOc thay doi la ti trpng dan so nhom tuoi lao dpng tang rat nhanh, nen ti ie so phy tiiupc chung giam 10,4 4em phan tram (tii 21,9% nam 1999 11,5% nam 2009) (faimg 5) Ti so cua Can Tha thap hon rat nhi^u so Ha Npi va Hci Chi Minh (30% - nam 2010) [5] Dieu c6 y nghia nhat dinh doi voi qua trinh phat trien kinh te - xa hoi thai gian qua Bang Ti / | phu thu3c dan s6 nh4p cu a thdnh phS Cdn Tha, nam 1999 vii 2009 1999 Nong thon 25,5 20,5 5,0 K;yy4u Hdi nghi Khoa hqc Dia ly toon quSc Idn thw Tong 21,9 17,2 Thinh thi 11,4 2009 Ndngthda 12,7 9,2 Ting 11,5 Ti s6 phu thuoc chung 7,6 7,8 Ti so php thuQC ti^ 3,7 3,7 Ti s6 phu thudc gia 4,7 3,6 4,5 Ben cgnh do, xu huong ti so phy thupc tr6 giam nhanh hon ti so phu thupc gia Khu vuc nong thon CO ti so phy thupc g i ^ nhanh ban khu v^c thi Nam 2009, trung binh lao dpng nhap cu d khu vyc nong th6n c6 chua tai 0,1 trb em phu thupc Ngupc l?i, ti sp phu thupe gia d thi CO xu hucmg cao hon khu vyc nong thon Mac du ti so phu tiiupc gia nhin chung cpn rat t h ^ nhung xu huong can dupe quan tam qua trinh thi hoa ph6 Can TTia T h ^ h thi 19,4 14,9 Hoi Dia ly Viet Nam Dai hpc Th&i Nguyen * Loai hinh Nhap cu npi bp Bans Dan so INliap *ii noi fjo i>hiin theo lUwm tuoi \AO dons, din nam 1999 va 2009 1999 Tliallll Nong Hiniilt Toilg tlli tllOll tlu 4085 3451 "536 4474 Duel tu6i lao done 21093 16052 J-145 35224 Tronatuoilao dona 1162 814 19-6 2280 Tren tuoi lao dona 26J40 2031- 4665- " Tong ban on tn'i 2009 Nong thon 606 5783 226 6615 Tong 50-9 41002506 48593 Ngudn: xii li tir f2J [3], Nam 1999, hon 46 ngan dan so di cu npi bp Can Tha c6 hon 37 ngan nguoi dp tuoi lao dpng, chiem ti le 79% Mac du giai do^n 1999 - 2009 nhom dan so tang rat cham nhung van cao han 2,5 Ian so voi toe dp tang tong dan so Nhap cu npi bp Trong nhom dan so duoi tuoi lao dpng di cu noi bp Can Tho giam nhanh, trung binh -3,9%/nam thi nhom dan so tren tuoi lao dpng tang dang ke, toe dp tmng binh 2,4%/nam Mgc du nhom dan so nhj^ cu tien tuoi lao dong c6 qui mo rat nho nhung dong gop tai 27,4% tSng dan so N h ^ eu npi bp tang them giai doan 1999 - 2009 Xet theo dia ban cu tni, dan so Nhap cu npi bp nhom tren tuoi lao dong d khu vyc thi mac du c6 qui mo nho nhung toe tang trung binh 7%/nam, nhanh gap 7,6 Ian so vcri nhom dan so dual tuoi lao dpng va ban 1,33 Ian nhom dan so tuoi lao dpng Vi vay, ti trpng nhom dan so tren tuoi lao dpng va nhom dan so tuoi lao dpng tang them tuong img 1% va 3,8% ti trpng nhom dan so duai tuoi lao dpng giam 4,8% Ngupc lai, khu vyc nong thon, cd nhom tuoi toe dp tang dan so deu giam, nhom dan so duoi tuoi lao dOng va nhom dan so tren tuoi lao dong giam nhanh nhat, tuang ung -16%/nam va -12%/nam Vi v^y, ti trpng nhom dSn so dp tuoi lao dong tang len rat nhanh, tir 79% nam 1999 len 87,4% nam 2009, Do dan so giira cac nhom tuoi thay doi theo dia ban cu tru nhu tren nen cac ti so phy thuoc cua dan so Nhap cu noi bp giam d ca khu vuc thj va npng th6n thi nhat ti so phu thupc gia o khu vue thj tang len giai daan * Lo^ hinh Nh%) cu nucrc Nguoi cao tuoi di cu den Can Tha tang nhanh chu yen quang each di chuyen ngan (di cu npi bp), voi lo?ii hinh Nhl^ cu nuoc, so lupng nguoi trSn tu6i lao dpng gan nhu khong tang Ngupc lai, nhom dan s6 tuoi lao d6ng tang rat nhanh, toe dp trung binh 7,4%/nam giai doan nghien cuu, nang quy mo tang hem Ian (bang 7) Vi vgy, eo cau dan so n h ^ cu giiia cac nhom tuoi thay doi theo huong tang cuang vai tro uu the tuy?t doi ciia nhom dSn so tiong dp tuoi lao dpng dong di cu tir cac tinh, khac tdi Can Tha Do viy, ti so phu thupc cua dan so thupc loai hinh nh?q) cu v6 cimg thap, trung binh khpang 17 nguoi lao dong nuoi nguoi phu thupc So vcd loai hinh N h ^ cu noi bo, ti so phu thupc lao dpng lo^ii hmh Nhap cu nude khong nhung t h ^ ban ma giam nhanh ban (ti so phy thuoe chung nam 2009 giam -2,8 Ian so voi nam 1999) (bang 7) KyyiuHoi nghi Khoa hoc Dfo ly toon guocldn thie Hoi Dja ly Viet Nam €)ai hoc Thai Nguyen cu nw&cphan theo nhom luot lao dong, dia ban cu tru, Bang Dan s6 Nhap nam 1999 va 2009 2009 1999 Tong Thanh thi Duai tuoi lao dpng 1363 1907 3270 1839 351 2190 Trong tuoi lao dpng 15519 10102 25621 47814 4627 52441 Tren tuoi lao dong 472 473 945 812 145 957 Tong 17354 12482 29836 50465 5124 55589 Tliaiihthi Nong thon Nong thon Tong Ngudn xu li tic [2], [3] B8n canh do, toe dp tang dan so thuoc loai hinh Nhap cu nuoc nhanh nhat thupc ve dan so tuoi lao dpng, trung binh tang ~12%/nam (nhanh g ^ Ian nhom dan so duoi tuoi lao dpng va g ^ Ian nhom dan so tren tuoi lao dpng) Quy mo nhom dan so nhom tuoi lao dpng giai doan 1999 - 2009 tang gkp Ian Vi vay, loai ti so phy thupc cua dan so n h ^ cu khu vuc thi deu giam nhanh Ngupc l^i, a dia ban nong thon, dien bien dan so Nhap cu nuac phan theo nhom tuoi lao dpng giai 6oan c6 xu huong tuong tu loai hinh Nhap cu npi bo KET L U A N Dan so nh^p cu o Can Tha tang nhanh, nhien tinh hinh dien bien khac theo loai hinh nhap cu va dia ban cu tni Theo loai hinh nh^p cu, dong di chuyen dan cu giiia cac don vi hanh chinh ben lanh tho Can Tha giam nhanh Tuy nhien Can Tho lai gia tang siic hiit doi v6i dong di cu tir cac tinh, khac Dja ban xuat cu tmyen thong den Can Tho la cdc tinh Ian can, npi vimg Dong bang song Cuu Long, voi quang each di chuyen ngSn Sue hiit ciia Can Tha van kem hap dan tiong moi tuong quan voi cac Ian nhu TTianh Ho Chi Minh va Ha Npi hay cac dja phuang thupc vimg kinh te nang dong nhat nuoc Qua do, Can Tlio the hien ro net vai tro thi trung tam vimg Dong bang song Cuu Long Ti so gioi tinh cua dan so nhap cu giai doan gidm nhanh chong Trong boi cSnh do, khu v\Ic thj c6 sue hap dan d6i vai nam giai nhien ban hSn khu vuc nong thon nSn ti s6 giai tinh khu vuc nong thon gidm nhanh hem rat nhieu so voi khu vyc tiii Dong thdi, lo?ii hinh Nhi^ cu nucrc luon c6 ti so giai tinh cao hon loai hinh Nhap eu npi bp Tinh chpn Ipc ve tupi ciia dan so n h ^ cu the hien rat sau sic va c6 xu huong tang theo thai gian, Dan s6 nhap eu nhin chung tre, dai bp phan thupc nhom tuoi lao dpng nen ti so phu thupc thilp va giim nhanh Tuy nhien, tinh chpn Ipc ve tuoi ciing c6 su phan hoa theo dia ban cu tru va lo9i hinh nhap eu TAI LIEU THAM K H A O Lien Hiep Quoc tai Vi?t Nam (United Nations Viet Nam) (2010), Di cu nucfc - Ca h0i va Ihdcb thuc-ddi-vcn,.s.\rpbdt triin Kmh li - xa hoi d Viet Nam Tong cue Thong ke (2000), Tdngdiiu tra ddn s6 va nha d ViitNam nam 1999 Tong cue TTiong ke (2010), Tdng diiu tra dan so va nhdonam 2009 T6ng cue Thong ke (2011), Cdu true tuSi - gi&i tinh va tinh trgng hon nhan cua dan s6 Viit Nam Tdng diiu tra ddn s6 vd nhd d Viet Nam ndm 2009 Nxb Thong ke Kyyiu H0i nghi Khoa hqc Dia fy todn quoc Ian thii ... Nhap nam 1999 va 20 09 20 09 1999 Tong Thanh thi Duai tuoi lao dpng 1363 1907 327 0 1839 351 21 90 Trong tuoi lao dpng 15519 101 02 25 621 47814 4 627 524 41 Tren tuoi lao dong 4 72 473 945 8 12 145 957... dong nam 1999 va 20 09 1999 20 09 Thanh thi Nong thdD Tong Thanh thi j Ndngthon T6ng 5387 54 82 Dudi tuoi lao dong 10869 6 329 957 728 6 36797 26 265 630 62 Trong tuoi lao dong 83100 10 424 93 524 1655... nam 1999 va 20 09 1999 Tliallll Nong Hiniilt Toilg tlli tllOll tlu 4085 3451 "536 4474 Duel tu6i lao done 21 093 160 52 J-145 3 522 4 Tronatuoilao dona 11 62 814 19-6 22 80 Tren tuoi lao dona 26 J40 20 31-