xu hướng chuyển dịch cơ cấu ngành nghề hộ

^ N N G N G H I E P , N O N G T H N VIET NAM - G C N H I N T L f T O N G D l t U T R A XU HUONG CHUYiN DICH CO CAU NGANH N G H I H O , LAO DONG NONG THON VI|T NAM QUA K I T Q U A TDT Ndng thdn, nong nghidp va thuy san 2011 Pham Quang Vinh Vu trudng Vu Thdng ki Ndng, Ldm nghidp vd Thdy sdn - TCTK V di quan didm xde djnh edng nghidp hda ndng nghidp, ndng thdn Id mdt nhCfng nhidm vy quan trpng hdng d l u eua CNH, HOH d i t nude tai Nghj quyet Oai hdi O I n g X (2006), nhidu chit truong, ehfnh sdch tfch cue da dupe dua n h l m d i y manh p h i t trien ndng nghidp, ndng thdn thdi ky mdi N h d dd, ndng nghidp, ndng thdn Vidt Nam d l ed bude ddi mdi k h i todn didn vd ngdnh ndng nghiep da ehCfng td vai trd quan trpng p h i t tridn kinh te v l dn dinh chfnh trj - xa hdi ciia dat nude Theo Tdng cue Thdng kd, vdng 10 n i m (2001-2011), ty trpng khu vpc ndng nghidp tdng GOP cua c l nude tudn chiem trdn 20% Ket q u i Tdng dieu tra ndng thdn, ndng nghidp vd thiiy sdn 2011 cho thay mdt bdc tranh k h i t o l n di^n vd thuc trang ndng thdn, ndng nghidp, thiiy sdn Viet Nam Trong ndm (2006-2011), tdng sd hd ndng thdn e l nUdc khdng ngimg tdng len Tinh ddn thdi diem 01/7/2011 Viet Nam cd k h o i n g 15,34 tridu hp ndng thdn, tdng 1,58 tridu hd (tdng 11,4%) so vdi nam 2006 Tdc d d tdng hp ndng thdn thdi ky 2006-2011 cao hon b i n thdi ky 2001-2006 (ed mUe tang 0,7 tridu hd hay 5,4%) m l nguydn nhan I I tang n h i n khau lien tyc qua d e n i m vd ed sy tdch hd hd cd quy md nhd hdn Mdt nhufng chii truong Idn ciia D i n g vd Nhd nudc thdi ky day manh cdng nghidp hda vd hien ^ ^ An C o n s 40 S U K I C N I /?oi^ Vdi gdn 70% ddn s6's6ng dkhu vUc nong thon va 50% s6lao ddng ndng thon hogt ddng linh vUc ndng nghiip, thi viic phdt trien nong nghiep Viit Nam vUa la muc tieu, dpng lUc, vCta Id cong cu, gidi phdp hiiu qud cong cuoc xda ddi, gidm nghio, ndng cao ddi song cua ngUifi ddn ndng thdn Nhijfng nam qua, dUdi sU tdc dpng tich cUc cua cdc chu tnfdng, chinh sdch, san xuat nong nghiep va kinh tendng thon dd cd bUdcchuyen bien mgnh me Dac biet, CCf cdu ngdnh nghe hp, lao ddng nong thon dd CO st/chuyi'n dich tich cUc: giam solUcfng va ty trpng nhdm hp, lao dpng nong, Idm nghiep va thuy sdn; tdng so lupng vd ty trpng nhdm ho, lao dpng cong nghiep vd djch vu dai hda dat nude Id d i y manh chuydn djeh co d u kinh td v l lao ddng ndng thdn Thuc td cho thIy, chd truong, ehfnh sdch eiia Ddng, N h i nude d l di vdo thyc td Co d u ngdnh nghd hd, lao ddng ndng thdn nhCfng ndm qua dd cd nhdng chuydn bien lidn tye va rd ndt Trong t h i p ky qua (2001 - 2011), e o d u ngdnh nghd hd, lao ddng ndng thdn d l ed sUchuyen dich tich cue: gidm sd lupng vd ty trpng nhdm hp va lao ddng ndng, Ilm, thuy s i n ; t i n g s6 lupng vd ty trpng nhdm hp v l lao ddng edng nghidp xdy dung va djch vy (DV) Od Id kdt qud cua q u i trinh day manh CNH-HOH dat nude dien trdn pham vi rdng, day nhanh tde d d d d thj hda vdi so lUpng khu cdng nghidp, cum cdng nghidp, khu thj mdi tdng nhanh Ve sd lupng, tfnh den 01 /7/2011, d khu vue ndng thdn c l nude cd 9,53 trieu hd ndng Idm thiiy sdn (NLTS), g i l m 248 nghin hd (-2,54%) so vdi ndm 2006 va giam t d i 1.038 nghin hd (-9,82%) so n i m 2001 N i m 2011, sd hd cdng nghiep xay dyng (CNXD) dat trdn 2,3 tridu hd, tang thdm 903 nghin hd (+64%) so nam 2006, t i n g 1.553 nghin hd so nam 2001 ( t i n g g i p lan sau 10 nam) Cdn hd djch vy (DV) Id 2,82 tridu hd n i m 2011, so vdi n i m 2006 vd 2001 tang l l n lUpt Id 771 nghin hd (+ 37,5%) v l 1.444 nghin hd (+104,6%) N N G NGHIEP, N N G T H N VIET NAM - G C N H I N TU" T N G DlfiU TRA • Ve CO d u , t^ trpng hd NLTS khu vUc ndng thdn gilm rd ret qua tifng thdi ky N i m 2001 ty trpng hd khu vye la 80,93%, xudng edn 71,06% nam 2006 va den ndm 2011 ehi cdn 62,14%.Trong dd, t^'trpng hd CNXD va DV eung ddng thdi tang len: T^ trpng hd CNXD n i m 2001 Id 5,76%, nam 2006 la 10,18% v l 2011 la 15,03%; f)f trpng hd DV ciia d c nam tUong Cfng lan lupt Id 10,57%, 14,92% vd 18,42% Nhu vay, giai doan 2001-2011, ty hd NLTScU qua nam lai gilm t i ; % den 10%, ngupe lal khu vUc CNXD tang d mCfc 4,5-5%, khu vUc dich vu ting cham hon dmCfc tir 3,5-4,5% Hinh 1: Ctf cliu nganh nghd hd ndng thdn Vidt Nam nam 2001, 2006 va 2011 {%) Dang chii y, den nam 2011 co 3/63 tinh, CO ty lio hoat dpng Ifnh vi/c cong nghiep, xay dung va dich vu chiem tren 40% tong so ho nong thon, sd nam 2006 la rat nhd, chi co tinh, ca nudc Xet theo viing kinh te, ca vung kinh te ca nudc deu co sy chuyen djch co cau nganh nghe ho jnong thon tCf NLTS sang CNXD va DV, song vimg • D o n g Nam Bo (ONB) va Dong bang song Hong (OBSH) B ^ i CO su chuyen djch manh me nhat vGi so hp NLTS chi chiem dUdi 50% tdng sd hd NT Tinh den dau thdng 7/2011, vimg Ddng bang sdng Hdng cd ty trpng hd NLTS chiem 47,4%, giam 13,1% ve ty so vdi ndm 2006, gidm 31,2% so nam 2001 Oay eung la viing cd ty trpng hp NLTS gilm manh nhat 10 nam 2001-2011 so vdi cae vung cdn lai el nude, qua cho thay sU chuyen djch co d u nganh nghe hd ndng thdn d diy la rd net nhat NgUpe lai, t;^ hd CNXD vung ndy ting tir 7,6% nam 2001 len 16,1% nam 2006 vd chiem tdi 23,5% ndm 2011 Trong thdi gian nay, t;f' trpng hd djch vu ciing tang tir 10,2% nam 2001 len 16,9% nam 2006 va 21,4% nam 2011 Cung tai thdi diem thing 01/7/2011, Odng Nam Bd la viing ed sd hd NLTS dat ty thip nhat ed nUde chl vdi 39%, gilm 11,8% so nam trUdc, va gilm 22,4% sau 10 nam Hd CNXD dat X^ trpng khd cao, xap xi 30%, ting 8,1 % so nam 2006 va tang 14,6% so nam 2001 T^ trpng hd dich vu cung dat d mdc kha vdl 28,5%, so ndm 2006 v l 2001 tdng tuong ti'ng Id 3,8% va 8,1% Cd the ndi day Id vung cd ty d c ngdnh nghe la kha ddng ddu vd qud trinh cdng nghiep hda, hidn dai hda ndng thdn dupc day nhanh nhit cd nude Mac dii da cd nhufng chuydn bidn nhanh theo hudng tfch cUc ve cd d u hd thdi gian qua, nhUng tdc chuyen dich nganh nghe tif nong nghiep sang phi nong nghiep rat chenh lech giUa cac vimg,Trong 10 nam qu3, vimg Trung du Mien nui phia BSc (TDMNPB) vdTay Nguyen [TN) cung co su chuyen dich cD cau nganh nghe ho NT theo xu hUdng chung ciia ca nifdc song khong dang ke, dac biet la viing Tay Nguyen Sau 10 nam, ty ho NLTS chi giam 5,8% d vung Tay Nguyen (10-92,1% nam 2001 xuong 86,3% nam 2011) va giam 9,9% dvungTDMNPB(tLf91,1% xuong 81,2%) Trong do, ty cac ho CNXD va DV d ca hai viing tang rat cham viing TDMNPB, ty ho CNXD va DV chi tang gan 5% sau 10 nam: ty ho CNXD tang tCr 1,7% nam 2001 len 6,2% nam 2011 (tang 4,5%); ty hp DV tang tir 5,9% nam 2001 len 10,8% nam 201 I d vimg Tay Nguyen, noi co sU chuyen dich cOcau kinh te nganh nghe hp nong thon cham nhat ca nUdc, ty trgng ho CNXD tang tir 1,4% nam 2001 len mot so kha khiem ton, cht 2,6% nam 2011, vaty ho DV mac du co mifc tang cao hon song khong dang ke: tif 5,7% nam 2001 len 9,9% nam 2011 rfi^ ; ii Xu hudng chuyen djch c o d u nganh nghe hd ndng thdn nhUng n i m qua eung keo theo su chuyen dich ca elu hd NT phan theo thu nhap chinh Theo ket qui TDT nam 2011, ty le hd cd ngudn thu nhap chinh tif nganh NLTS chiem 57,1% (giam 10,7% so vdi nam 2006); ty Id hd cd ngudn thu nhap ehfnh tir CNXD dat 17,3% (+6%); X)f Id hd cd ngudn thu nhap chinh tif dich vy dat 19,4% (+4,2%) Xu hUdng ndy deu dien d ca viing cd nUdc nhUng d mdc dd khac Nhd xu hudng ehuydn dich tfch cue thdi gian qua, thu nhap 12/2012 S I ^ ^ I % N 41 < > N6NG NGHIEP, N6NG TH6N VI$T:*IAIVI - i o c NHIN TO' TONG OIEU TRA vd tich liiy ciia hd ndng thdn dd tdng Idn dliu] ke Thu nhdp binh quin d l u ngudi/nlm khu vUe nong nong n i m 2010 d^t 12,8 tridu ddng, g i p 2,1 llni^o vdi nam 2006 Ndu loai trir ydu td trupt gid thi thu nh^ip bmh quin d l u ngudi ndm 2010 tdng 55% so vdl n u n 'OOd Tai thdi didm 1/7/2011, vdn tich IQy binh q i u n I lio ndng thdn dat 17,4 tridu ddng, g i p 2,6 lln ;.n voi ihoi didm 1/7/2006 Ndu lo^itrU ydu td trupt gid, till von ii(h luy binh qudn hd ndng thdn n i m 2011 titxi \'.Uo.\ni\ 41 % so vdi nim 2006 Oidm ddng chu ]? Id mdc i.iiKiihu nhdp vd tfch luy d khu vyc ndng thdn ddu cac hnn unn so vdi mUe tdng trUdng kinh td Vidt Nam thdi ky 'ood 2011 (40 %) Co eau nganh nghe chuydn djch tfch cue va dung hudng cung ddng thdi kdo theo su chuyen djch nhanh cua co d u lao dpng d ndng thon bdi su chuyen dich ed d u ngdnh nghe hd ndng thon c6 lien quan trpe tiep den quy md va tdc dp chuyfen dich co eau lao ddng d khu vyc ndy N i m 2011 s d p ^ u o i dp tudi ed ning lao ddng d khu vue NT la 32 trieu ngudi, t i n g 1,4 tridu ngudi (+4,5%) so vdi 2006; tang 2,9 tridu ngudi (+9,9%) so n i m 2001 Trong 59,6"?b lao ddng hoatdpng ITnh vUc ndng I l m thuy san, giam manh so vdt miifc 70,4% (nam 2006) ua 79.6"ii n i m 2001, ridng ngdnh NN chiem 55,2%(nim 2006 l,i 65,5% v l ndm 2001 Id 75,9%).Ty trpng lao dong hoat dpng ITnh vuc cdng nghidp, xay dung 18,4 "P tang khd nhanh so vdi miifc 12,5% (ndm 2006), 7,-1', nam 2001; v l 20,5% Id lao ddng dich vu (r> mi 2006, ty Id Id 15,9% vd 11,9% ndm 2001), cdn l.n la lao ddng d cdc ITnh vye khic , Cd vung c l nUde deu cd sychuyi n dich ve CO eau lao dpng ndng thdn song khdng ddntj deu giifa cle viing Kdt q u i dat dupe ve ehuydn djch co cau lao dpng NT theo ngdnh sdn xult chfnh eua e l nudc va cac viing ndm 2011 cd tien bd so vdi c I r i W n 2001 va 2006 nhung van cdn cham.Trong 10 n i m tir200l -2011, ty trpng lao ddng NLTS mdi gidm dupe 20% t u khoang 80% n i m 2001 xudng khoing 60% v l o n a m 2011 binh qudn moi n i m gilm dugc 2% M a d M giai doan ^ - Con »6 »- 42 S U K l i N is/20ia 2006-2011 tyle lao ddng khu vUc giam duoc 10,9% song binh quan mdi nam cung chi giam duoc 2,19% Cac vung co chuydn dich cd cau lao ddng thap la TN, TDMNPB vaDBSCL 16c dp chuyen djch co d u lao ddng nong thon dien 1.1 nlianh nhiit d viing ONB va vung DBSH Qua mot th.ip ky (2001-2011} co the danh gia vimg dong bdng •.onq Hdng c6 su chuyen dich manh me nhat d nUdc VOI ly Irpng lao ddng NLTS giam manh tU 77,3% nam 7001 xudng chi 42,6% nam 2011 (giam 34,7%); (on khu vuc CNXD tang tU 10,5% nam 2001 len 31,3% ii,iin 2011 fl.ing 20,8% sau 10 nam), khu vUc DV tang tU ! , / % nam 2001 len 25,2% nam 201 M.K du khdng co sU chuyen djch manh me nhu vung Dong bdng sdng Hong, Dong Nam Bo cung ia viing CO su chuyen dich co cau nganh nghe hd nong thon vdi tdc nhanh va la khu vUc co ty trpng Itio ddng NLTS chiem thap nhat ca nudc, chi voi 36,1% nam 2011, g i l m gan 13% so nam 2006, va 22,4% so nam 2001 Lao ddng CNXD khu vuc chiem ty Irong kha cao (31,5%) cao hon mUc 23,4 nam 2006 va 16, l"'o nam 2001 Tuong tu, ty lao dong DV cung tcing qua t u n g t h d i ky, tu209o nam 2001 len 24,4% nam 2006 va chiem 28,5% nam 2011, Cung nhu xu hudng cham chuyen dich co cau nganh nghe ho nong thon, su chuyen dich co cau lao dong nong thon cung dien kha cham dTay Nguyen voi ty ho NLTS chi giam 6,66°o 10 nam qua (tu 91,94% nam 2001 xudng 85,28% nam 2011) va day ciing la vung co tong sd hp NLTS chiem ty cao nhat ca nuoc Con khu vuc CNXD chi tang 1,4% sau l O n a m d u l,6"o len 3%) khu vuc dich vu tang 5.2% (tif 6,2^M 2001 (en 11,4*^0) Nhung thuan loi va loi the ve san xuat mot so cay xuat khau (ca phe, cao su, tieu) da thu hut lao ddng vao khu vUc ndng nghiep d khu vuc Bang 1: Chuyen dich co d u lao dong ndng thdn chia theo vung KT-XH qua ky TDT cac nam 2001, 2006,2011 Don vi: % N6ng, l i m , thuy cengngKiep, sin x i y dung Dichvu 2001 2006 2011 2001 2006 2011 2001 2006 2011 Ca nuoc 79,6 70,4 59,6 7,4 12,5 18,4 11,5 16 20,S BBSH 77,3 60,5 42,6 10,5 20,4 31,3 11,7 18,3 25,2 TDMNPB 91,2 86,5 79,7 2,3 4,3 8,5 6,3 8,8 11,5 BTBDHMT 80,3 71,9 62,6 6,9 11,2 15,5 11,4 15,7 205 TN 91,9 88,4 85,3 1,6 2,5 3,0 6,2 8,8 11,4 ONB 58,5 49,1 36,1 16,1 23,4 31,5 20,0 24,4 28,5 DBSCL 79,2 71,8 62,2 7,8 9,7 14,3 12,6 16,9 21,3 N6NG NGHIEP, N6NG TH6N VI$T NAM - G6C NHIN TI>T6NG DI^U TRA Nhin chung, kdt qud dat dupc ve chuyen djeh cp d u hd ndng thdn nam 2011 khd quan hdn so vdi n i m 2006 v l 2001 nhung van cdn c h i m Ode bidt, edn ed su chenh lech ddng kd chuyen djeh CO d u nganh nghe h d ndng thdn cua cdc viing trorig e l nude va cho thay k h i n i n g chuydn doi tU nganh nghe NLTS sang CNXD va DV la han che d khu vyc mien nCii phfa Bac Tif dd, keo theo sy chenh Ideh co eau lao ddng ndng thdn Viet Nam Quan trpng hdn, han che cdn dan ddn sy chdnh Ideh Idn giCfa d e vung v l nhdm hd tfch luy ciia ngudi lao ddng v l d c hd, khidn cho k h o i n g each gidu nghdo ngdy mdt t i n g , tir dd d i n tdi khd khdn vide p h l n d l u t h u hep d i n khodng d e h phdt trid'n giijfa ele viing midn, giCfa cdc ngdnh kinh te Oieu ndy dupc chiifng minh b i n g sd cu the: Vimg Odng Nam bd cd mCfe tieh luy cao n h i t , dat 23,6 trieu ddng/hp, g i p 2,7 l l n so vdi vimg trung du midn niii phfa Bic - chi dat mde tfeh luy binh q u i n 8,7 tridu ddng/hd Cd the ndi, Kdt qud TOT ndng thdn, ndng nghidp va thuy sdn Vidt DONG THAP Tuy nhidn, qud trlnh thye vd tidu thu, l l y he thdng nudi ea tra hidn ciing gap khdng ft khd k b l n , t h i m eanh theo hUdng an todn Idm t h i c h thUe: mye tidu phdt trien, thu hut ngudn Cdng t i e td ehUe thUe hidn qui lue dau t u cua nhieu phan hoaeh, q u i n ly qui hoaeh mdt sd dja kinh te, p h i t tridn vimg nudi theo phuang ehUa chat che, thidu kien hudng m d n h l m tao dieu kidn quyet xif ly vi pham, dan den thuan Ipi cho vide chuyen ddi sang ngudi nudi tU y dao ao nudi khdng nudi d c loai thiiy s i n k h i c d n xay dung he thdng ao l i n g ipc, xa thiet, ben canh dd ludn chii trpng nudc mdi trudng bdn ngodi, dac den d e van de an sinh xa hdi vd biet Id hien tUpng nudi ngodi viing bdo vd mdi trudng cdc viing qui hoach van dien (hien van cdn qui hoaeh, tang eUdng edng tac qui 225 nudi ngodi vung qui hoach) hoach chat che (Xem tiep trang 32) Cd the ndi, vide phat trien nudi ca tra ehe bidn x u l t khau da khai thdc vd sir dung ed hidu qud tiem ning, Ipi the ciia tinh nhU: tan dung dat b l i bdi ven sdng Tien, sdng Hau, lyc lupng lao ddng ddi ddo, ngudi nudi cd nhidu kinh nghidm, he thdng co sd tang viing nudi tap trung dupe d l u tU ddng bd, khoa hpe NhUng yeu t d trdn giup eho viec phdt trien nudi cd tra ehe bien xuat khau cua tinh dUpc dn djnh, cd sUe canh tranh eao so vdi d c tinh khu vUc vd e l nude Theo sd lidu thdng kd nhUng nam qua tinh hinh nudi e l tra chd bien xuat khau eCia tinh cd xu hUdng phat trien manh, dn djnh qua ele n i m Nam 2010 s i n lUpng ea tra nudi: 283.893 tan; ndm 2011: 329.284 tan va du kien n i m 2012: 386.910 tan tang 36,28% so vdi nam 2010 va tang 17,50% so vdi nam 2011 Che bidn thdnh pham xuat khau ndm 2010:119.809 t i n tUOng utig 307.628 ngdn USD; n i m 2011: 161.122 tan (475.067 ngan USD) va nam 2012: 170.300 (473.480 ngdn USD) G i l tri x u l t khau d tra ehiem trdn 70% kim ngach xuat khau eua tinh t u nam 2010 ddn Nam 2011 da khie hpa kha rd net xu hudng chuyen djch cp d u ngdnh nghe hd lao ddng ndng thdn Song, thdi gian tdi, chuyen djch co eau ngdnh nghd hd, lao ddng ndng thdn d n dupe d i y manh hon nufa, ddc bidt Id nhtfng viing khdng cd nhieu Ipi the vd phdt trien ndng nghidp de ndng nghiep, ndng thdn Viet Nam thyc sU p h i t trien theo hudng cdng nghidp hda, hidn dai hda trdn pham vi rdng D i y se la ndn tdng de ndng nghiep, ndng thdn Vidt Nam phat tridn ben vUng, tir n i n g eao ddi sdng ngUdi dan ndng thdn Viet Nam./ - Gid cd bap bdnh, khdng on - Oa dang hda s i n pham tif d djnh, chi phf d l u t u Idn, riii ro cao tra, day manh edng t i e xiic tien ddi vdi nhijfng hd nudi Id (vi hau het thuong mai ddi vdi thj trUdng d c n h i may che bien deu cd viing nUdc n h l m gidm bdt riii ro nudi ridng dd chii ddng ngudn thj trUdng xuat khau cd bien nguydn lieu) ddng x l u - Djch bdnh chua dupc d u bao ehinh xie, chua dugc kiem soat triet dd - Cdng t i e xde tien thuong mai ddi vdi thj trudng ndi dia ehua dupe quan t i m dung mifc De tao didu kidn cho vide nudi thOysIn (el tra) chd bidn x u l t khau dn djnh thdi gian tdi tinh e l n ehu trpng mdt sd g i l i phap nhU: - Khai t h i c sif dung cd hieu q u i va bdn vufng tdi nguydn mat dat, mat nude nudi trdng thiiy s i n , p h i t tridn s i n xuat theo djnh hudng thj trudng, tren ed sd gan ket chat che gida s i n x u l t che bien - T i n g eudng edng tac quan ly, kiem tra, kiem s o l t eiia d e eo quan chUc nang san xuat gidng, nang cao nhdn thUe va cdch phdn bidt chat lupng gidng nudi ciia ngUdi cd co sd san xuat, thdng qua boat ddng khuyen ngU, dam bdo gidng sach, ddp ung 100% nhu cau nudi - Qui hoach va phat trien viing s i n xuat gidng tap trung, ed ngudn nude elp, thoat thuan Ipi, dieu kien t u nhidn nhu khf hau, thd nhudng phil hpp vd ddc biet cd he thong co sd tdng d i m b i o de van chuyen vd lUu thdng dd ddng./ C o n s d 43 ^ 12/201& S U K I E N ... bien xuat khau cua tinh dUpc dn djnh, cd sUe canh tranh eao so vdi d c tinh khu vUc vd e l nude Theo sd lidu thdng kd nhUng nam qua tinh hinh nudi e l tra chd bien xuat khau eCia tinh cd xu hUdng... X)f Id hd cd ngudn thu nhap chinh tif dich vy dat 19,4% (+4,2%) Xu hUdng ndy deu dien d ca viing cd nUdc nhUng d mdc dd khac Nhd xu hudng ehuydn dich tfch cue thdi gian qua, thu nhap 12/2012 S... khu vuc dich vu tang 5.2% (tif 6,2^M 2001 (en 11,4*^0) Nhung thuan loi va loi the ve san xuat mot so cay xuat khau (ca phe, cao su, tieu) da thu hut lao ddng vao khu vUc ndng nghiep d khu vuc Bang