C3-How-Much-Do-We-Know-About-Incoming-Student-Profiles-and-How-Can-We-Make-Use-of-It

How Much Do We Know About Incoming Student’s Profiles and How Can We Make Use of it? Xiqian Liu Office of Planning and Institutional Research Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi Texas A&M University – Corpus Christi • Island University • A part of Texas A&M system • Hispanic Serving Institution • Doctoral-High Research Activity • Enrollment in Fall 2020 is 10,820 • Student to faculty ratio in 2018 is 23:1 • Growth in degree programs Introduction to Cohort Profile Analysis Cohort A group of students who enter TAMUCC at the same time and share similar characteristics First-time, full-time, degree seeking undergraduate students enrolled in the fall term • • Profile • A set of data portraying the significant features of entering students • Demographic characteristics, academic preparation, family economic status, financial aid, and academic achievement in TAMUCC Analysis • Within cohort subgroup analysis • Between cohort trend analysis • Correlations between profiles and outcomes Introduction to Cohort Profile Analysis A multifaced view to understand the characteristics of entering cohorts A trend comparison on key measures of student enrollment, progress and success across years Cohort profile analysis will provide us… Subgroup analysis of student’s enrollment, progress and success based on certain student characteristics of interest (e.g retention status) Identifying the patterns and testing the correlations among measures of student’s enrollment, progress and success Research Questions What does our entering cohort profile look like? How have the entering cohorts changed over years? How retained students in second fall compare to the non-returners? What are the profiles for non-returner students who enrolled elsewhere? Constructs of the Student’s Profile Pre-enrollment academic characteristics Academic achievement in first term Outcome variables (GPA, first-year retention) Background characteristics Pre-enrollment financial characteristics Financial status in first year Student Cohorts Fall 2016 - fall 2019 Data sources CBM001, CBM004, CBM00S o Enrollment headcounts o Demographic information o College and major o Residency o Number of credits took in first term o English and math courses credits in first year Banner/Oracle o Days between application and enrollment o Days between registration and term start date o Financial aid received from multiple sources o Housing status o PSA status o SAT/ACT o High school percentile o Family income o First-generation college student’s status o First term GPA NSCH SE data o TAMU-CC non-returners enrollment at elsewhere o Transfer destination Methods, Processes, and Tools Process FTIC students vs FTIC non-PSA students Methods Trend analysis FTIC students who were retained by next fall vs FTIC students did not return by next fall Non-returner students: who are they and where did they go? Descriptive statistics Chi-square test Independent Samples T-test Tools SPSS Excel Adobe Spark Top Ten Feeder Counties in Texas 2016-2019 2016 Cohort County 2017 Cohort Count Pct County Nueces Bexar Harris Travis Hidalgo Williamson Cameron Fort Bend San Patricio Count 411 257 202 101 92 88 78 75 70 69 Nueces 369 15.5 Bexar 300 12.6 Harris 254 10.7 Travis 128 5.4 Williamson 98 4.1 Hidalgo 88 3.7 Fort Bend 80 3.4 Dallas 76 3.2 Out of state 76 3.2 Cameron 73 3.1 Out of state 10 2018 Cohort Pct 18.5 11.6 9.1 4.5 4.1 3.5 3.4 3.1 County Count 2019 Cohort Pct County Count Pct Nueces 381 20.2 Nueces 350 20.1 Bexar 210 11.1 Harris 170 9.7 Harris 138 7.3 Bexar 167 9.6 Cameron 92 4.9 Hidalgo 81 4.6 Hidalgo 88 4.7 Travis 73 4.2 Out of state 73 3.9 Out of state 64 3.7 Fort Bend 63 3.3 San Patricio 61 3.5 Williamson 60 3.2 Williamson 61 3.5 Travis 59 3.1 Fort Bend 59 3.4 57 Cameron 52 3.1 San Patricio Summary Non-PSA students vs FTIC entering cohort Higher first-year retention rate Higher proportion of female students Higher pct underrepresented minority students Higher pct of students were living off campus Lower test scores and high school performance Applied and registered earlier From lower income families with higher unmet need Higher pct Pell Grants Recipients Higher pct took loans 10 Higher pct first-gen students 11 Lower pct with major undecided 12 Lower pct took math courses in the first term 13 Lower GPA and earned credit hours 17 Subgroups Analysis First-year Retention Status: 2016 Cohort N/% BU LA NH EH SE Full Sample 2,380 259 638 489 223 771 Dropped out by 2017 Fall 43% 42% 55% 37% 40% 39% Socioeconomic Characteristics Pct With Financial aid Persisted to 2017 Fall 57% 58% 45% 63% 60% 61% Background Characteristics Pct Female Pct Texas Residents Pct Living on campus (FASFA)1 Pct PSA Average Composite SAT score Average High School Percentile Chi-square test or Dropped out by 2017 Persisted to 2017 Independent Full Sample Fall Fall T-test 74% 76% *** 76% Average Financial aid Taken among Financial aid Recipients Pct.With Federal Financial aid $14,177 69% $13,623 71% $14,587 67% ** *** Average Federal Financial aid Taken among Federal Financial aid Recipients $11,076 $10,571 $11,483 ** Average Pell Grants Taken among Pell Grants Recipients Pct Federal Loans Borrowers $4,682 56% $4,377 58% $4,922 54% *** * Average Federal Loans Accrued among Loan Borrowers Pct Merit Based Aid Recipients Average Unmet Financial Need in 2016 Average Family Income in 2016 Average Budget in 2016 $5,531 11% $5,511 $74,058 $22,383.0 $5,270 5% $5,062 $78,843 $20,660.2 $5,746 16% $5,890 $70,209 $23,889.7 *** *** * * *** 18 Full Sample 59% 97% Dropped out by 2017 Persisted to 2017 Fall Fall 55% 61% 98% 96% 61% 13% 1053 63 College Experience Pct Major Undecided 65% 23% 1051 58 Full Sample 15% 59% 6% 1054 66 Chi-square test or Independent T-test ** ** ** *** *** *** Dropped out Persisted to Chi-square test or by 2017 Fall 2017 Fall Independent T-test 24% 8% *** Average Days Bertween Application and Registration 186 175 195 *** Average Days Between Registration and Term Start Date Pct Took Any Math Course Credits 51 61% 49 69% 53 45% *** *** Pct Students Registered at Least 15 Credits Average GPA in 2016 Average Earned Credits in 2016 15% 2.7 10.4 13% 2.1 9.1 16% 3.0 11.3 * *** *** Subgroups Analysis First-year Retention Status: 2017 Cohort N/% BU LA NH EH SE Full Sample 2,224 276 602 451 200 695 Socioeconomic Characteristics Pct With Financial aid Average Financial aid Taken among Financial aid Recipients Pct With Federal Financial aid Average Federal Financial aid Taken among Federal Financial aid Recipients Pct Pell Grant Recipient Average Pell Grants Taken among Pell Grants Recipients Average Federal Loans Accrued among Loan Borrowers Average Unmet Financial Need in 2017 Average Family Income in 2017 Average Price of Attendance in 2017 19 Dropped out by 2018 Fall 43% 41% 54% 36% 42% 38% Full Sample 75% Persisted to 2018 Fall 57% 59% 46% 64% 58% 62% Background Characteristics Full Sample Pct Female 57% Pct Other 5% Pct Living off campus (FASFA) 25% Pct PSA 13% Average High School Percentile 63 Dropped out by 2018 Fall 53% 4% 20% 21% 58 Chi-square test Dropped out by Persisted to or Independent 2018 Fall 2018 Fall T-test 71% 78% ** $14,959 70% $13,880 66% $15,683 73% ** *** $11,617 46% $11,195 43% $11,903 48% ** * $4,968 $4,517 $5,269 *** $5,661 $5,445 $74,035 $23,765 $5,470 $5,195 $75,119 $21,844 $5,799 $5,625 $73,259 $25,148 *** * * *** College Experience Pct Major Undecided Average Days Bertween Application and Registration Average Days Between Registration and Term Start Date Pct Took Any Math Course Credits Average GPA in 2017 Average Earned Credits in 2017 Persisted to Chi-square test or 2018 Fall Independent T-test 61% *** 2% ** 29% *** *** 6% *** 66 Chi-square Persisted test or Dropped out to 2018 Independen Full Sample by 2018 Fall Fall t T-test 15% 23% 9% *** *** 196 181 208 51 50 52 *** 55% 62% 50% *** 2.7 2.2 3.1 *** 10.6 9.2 11.7 *** Subgroups Analysis First-year Retention Status: 2018 Cohort N/% BU LA NH EH SE UC Full Sample 1,887 175 560 375 161 613 Dropped out by 2019 Fall 41% 37% 58% 33% 27% 33% 67% Socioeconomic Characteristics Pct With Financial aid Average Financial aid Taken among Financial aid Recipients Pct.With Federal Financial aid Average Pell Grants Taken among Pell Grants Recipients Average Federal Loans Accrued among Loan Borrowers Pct Merit Based Aid Recipients Average Merit Based Aid Received among Students Received Merit Aid Pct Dependent Student Average Price of Attendance in 2018 20 Persisted to 2019 Fall 60% 63% 42% 68% 73% 67% 33% Background Characteristics Pct Hispanic or Latino Pct Other Pct Living off campus (FASFA) Pct PSA Average High School Percentile Dropped out by Full Sample 2019 Fall 72% 77% Persisted to 2019 Fall 81% Full Sample 53% 3% 27% 16% 69 Dropped out by 2019 Fall 48% 5% 19% 31% 64 Persisted to 2019 Fall 55% 1% 32% 6% 72 Chi-square test or Independent T-test *** ** $14,311 66% $5,196.43 $5,444.5 30% $13,527 63% $4,778.01 $5,275.3 20% $14,784 68% $5,472.24 $5,559.6 38% * *** * *** $3,171.0 83% $26,574.4 $2,350.7 77% $24,768.5 $3,463.8 87% $27,883.6 ** *** *** College Experience Pct Major Undecided Average Days Bertween Application and Registration Average Days Between Registration and Term Start Date Pct Took Any Math Course Credits Average GPA in 2018 Average Earned Credits in 2018 Full Sample 17% Chi-square test or Independent T-test ** *** *** *** *** Chi-square Dropped Persisted test or out by to 2019 Independent T-test 2019 Fall Fall 32% 7% *** 198 177 212 *** 52 53% 3.0 12.6 50 65% 2.7 11.8 53 46% 3.2 13.1 ** *** *** *** Subgroups Analysis First-year Retention Status: 2019 Cohort N/% BU LA NH EH SE UC Full Sample 1,744 163 256 306 118 500 401 Dropped out by 2020 Fall 42.6% 30.7% 30.5% 27.8% 32.2% 31.2% 83.8% Persisted to 2020 Fall 57.4% 69.3% 69.5% 72.2% 67.8% 68.8% 16.2% Full Sample Dropped out by 2020 Fall Persisted to 2020 Fall Chi-square test or Independent T-test Pct Female 59.7% 52.4% 65.1% *** Pct Texas Residents 96.1% 95.6% 96.4% ** Pct Living on campus (FASFA)1 70.2% 79.3% 63.8% ** Pct PSA 24.7% 46.6% 8.5% *** Average Composite SAT score 1,107 1,121 1,097 *** Average High School Percentile 71 69 73 *** Background Characteristics Full Sample Dropped out by 2020 Fall Persisted to 2020 Fall Chi-square test or Independent T-test 80.30% 67.60% 89.80% *** $13,879 $13,154 $14,283 ** Pct With Federal Financial aid 67.60% 57.70% 74.90% *** Average Federal Financial aid $10,380 $4,942 $5,425 ** Pct with Pell Grants 37.6% 33.5% 40.6% ** Socioeconomic Characteristics Pct With Financial aid Average Financial aid Taken among Financial aid Recipients Average Pell Grants Taken among Pell Grants Recipients Pct Major Undecided $5,256 $4,379 $5,789 *** Pct Federal Loans Borrowers 44.7% 42.4% 46.5% * Average Federal Loans Accrued among Loan Borrowers $5,230 $4,942 $5,425 *** Pct Merit Based Aid Recipients 40.1% 22.9% 52.8% *** Average Unmet Financial Need in 2016 $2,634 $2,593 $2,665 * Average Family Income in 2019 $99,693 $111,917 $91,031 * Average Budget in 2019 $21,740 $18,305 $24,268 *** 21 College Experience Persisted Full Dropped out to 2020 Chi-square test or Sample by 2020 Fall Independent T-test Fall 25.6% 47.2% 9.5% *** 186 161 207 *** Pct Took Any Math Course Credits 55.8% 66.5% 47.9% *** Pct Students Registered at Least 15 Credits 28.2% 24.9% 30.7% ** Average GPA in 2016 2.9 2.7 3.1 *** Average Earned Credits in 2016 12 11 13 *** Average Days Bertween Application and Registration Summary Findings aligned with retention literature: Gender Academic preparation: test scores and higher school performance First term GPA Credits earned in the first term Pct took 15 or more credits in the first term Days between application and registration Days between registration and term start date Proportion of students with major undecided in the first year Taking math courses 22 Findings not align with retention literature: Living on campus vs living off campus PSA students Family income Unmet need Pell grants recipients Financial aid disbursed Subgroup Analysis 2016 Cohort Non-Returners Enrolled at Other Institutions 416 (17.5%) 87% Transferred to other institutions by 2017 Fall Two TAMU-CC enrollment records before enrolled at other institutions 79% 40% Living on campus PSA students 2.88 33% Average GPA in the first term 23 Pell Grants Recipients 51% College of Liberal Arts 44% Major undeclared 46% First generation college students (FAFSA) 45% Hispanic/Latino students 73% Took math courses in first year $101,517 Average family income Subgroup Analysis 2017 Cohort Non-Returners Enrolled at Other Institutions 399 (17.9%) Transferred to other institutions by 2018 Fall 64% Living on campus 2.83 Average GPA in the first term 24 81% Two TAMU-CC enrollment records before enrolled at other institutions 38% PSA students 32% Pell Grants Recipients 48% College of Liberal Arts 38% Major undeclared 40% First generation college students (FAFSA) 42% Hispanic/Latino students 65% Took math courses in first year $88,720 Average family income Subgroup Analysis 2018 Cohort Non-Returners Enrolled at Other Institutions 449 (23.8%) Transferred to other institutions by 2019 Fall 64% Living on campus 3.0 Average GPA in the first term 25 80% Two TAMU-CC enrollment records before enrolled at other institutions 43% PSA students 36% Pell Grants Recipients 53% College of Liberal Arts 45% Major undeclared 41% First generation college students (FAFSA) 46% Hispanic/Latino students 65% Took math courses in first year $101,866 Average family income Subgroup Analysis 2019 Cohort Non-Returners Enrolled at Other Institutions 430 (24.7%) Transferred to other institutions by 2019 Fall 86% Living on campus 3.3 Average GPA in the first term 26 85% Two TAMU-CC enrollment records before enrolled at other institutions 69% PSA students 21% Pell Grants Recipients 68% University College 69% Major undeclared 26% First generation college students (FAFSA) 32% Hispanic/Latino students 77% Took math courses in first year $129,441 Average family income Non-Returner’s Profile from Fall 2016-2019 2016 Pct transferred to other institutions by second Fall Two TAMU-CC enrollment records before enrolled at other institutions 2017 2018 17.5% 17.9% 23.8% 80% 81% 87% 2019 24.7% 85% 46% 32% 44% 33% 42% 38% 38% 32% 43% 45% 36% 69% 69% 21% First generation college students (FAFSA) 46% 40% 41% 26% Took math courses in first year 73% 65% 65% 77% Average GPA in the first term 27 2.88 2.83 3.0 3.3 % Hispanic/Latino students PSA students Major undeclared in 1st year Pell Grants Recipients 45% 40% Top 10 Transfer Out Destinations 2016 Cohort 2017 Cohort Colleges that Students Enrolled in Rank 2017 Fall Pct TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY-College Station 32% DEL MAR COLLEGE 8% BLINN COLLEGE- BRYAN CAMPUS 7% TEXAS STATE UNIVERSITY - SAN MARCOS UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS - SAN ANTONIO 5% AUSTIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE 3% SAN ANTONIO COLLEGE 3% LONE STAR COLLEGE SYSTEM DISTRICT 2% TARRANT COUNTY COLLEGE 2% TEXAS STATE TECHNICAL 10 COLLEGE- HARLINGEN 28 5% 2% 2018 Cohort Colleges that Students Enrolled Rank in 2018 Fall Pct TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY28% College Station DEL MAR COLLEGE 7% TEXAS STATE UNIVERSITY - SAN MARCOS 6% BLINN COLLEGE- BRYAN CAMPUS 6% AUSTIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS - SAN ANTONIO UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY LONE STAR COLLEGE SYSTEM DISTRICT UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON HOUSTON COMMUNITY 10 COLLEGE 6% 5% 3% 3% 2% 2% Rank 2019 Cohort Colleges that Students Enrolled in 2019 Fall Pct TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY-College Station 38% DEL MAR COLLEGE UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS - SAN ANTONIO UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY 9% 5% 4% College that students enrolled in 2020 fall TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY – College station 59% BLINN COLLEGE- BRYAN CAMPUS 4% TEXAS STATE UNIVERSITY - SAN MARCOS 3% UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS - SAN ANTONIO 3% UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY 3% DEL MAR COLLEGE 3% AUSTIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE DISTRICT 2% SAM HOUSTON STATE UNIVERSITY 2% UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON 2% Rank Pct BLINN COLLEGE- BRYAN CAMPUS TEXAS STATE UNIVERSITY - SAN MARCOS 4% AUSTIN COMMUNITY COLLEGE 3% SOUTH TEXAS COLLEGE 2% COASTAL BEND COLLEGE 2% 11 BLINN COLLEGE- RELLIS 1% 10 UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON 2% 11 UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN 1% 4% Summary Profile • Enrollment decreased • Diversity decreased • Better academic prepared students • Higher pct of PSA students • Higher average family income • Lower pct students took loans • Higher pct students with merit aid • More credit hours • Higher GPA 29 Retention is correlated with… • Precollege academic characteristics • College GPA and credit • Course taking patterns • PSA status • Housing status • Financial condition Challenges • PSA: Pre-determined drop-outs • Even higher transfer-out rate • Average credits per semester lower than 15 • Longer time to graduate • Math matters Next Step • Regression analysis to predict retention status while taking all effective confounding variables into account • Use the predictive model to predict entering new cohort’s retention rate How Do We Use the Profile Data? We have shared the cohort profile data to: • President’s Cabinet, • Academic Affairs, • Enrollment Management, • and the Student’s Success Council and its subcommittees To aid in: • Data informed-decision making, • Developing or enhancing services and support, • And increasing student outcomes including retention and graduation rates 30 Q&A Xiqian Liu Senior Data Analyst Office of Planning and Institutional Research Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi Email: xiqian.liu@tamucc.edu 31