Available online at www.sciencedirect.com ScienceDirect Procedia Engineering 131 (2015) 1113 – 1120 World Conference: TRIZ FUTURE, TF 2011-2014 Analysis on Technological Opportunities of Evolution Bifurcations * Jian G Sun a , Runhua Tana, Jing Guoa, Tianlin Chaia , Xiaolong Liua a School of Mechanical Engineering, Hebei University of Technology, Tianjin, China Abstract Technological system has been evolving due to the impact of product market Technological innovation includes incremental innovation, radical innovation, and disruptive innovation These three innovations run through the process of technical systemic evolution In the S curve evolutions, path of technique evolution can be used to predict the potential state of current technology, so as to achieve future product with current technology, thus improving the success rate of product development But the previous technology evolution theory can be used for forecasting incremental technological innovation which is on single segment S curve only There are many evolution bifurcations which have lots of technical opportunities during the actual process of evolution It can achieve an effective innovation However, the branching process of evolution routes are unable be forecasted by means of traditional technology evolution theories This paper researches evolution route bifurcations based on technical subsystem status analysis and resource analysis as well as technical evolution theory, concludes the technological opportunities searching method on path of technique evolution route bifurcation point and then seek to realize technology evolution of bifurcation point technological forecast and pre-producing Finally, based on the technological opportunities search method on path of technique evolution bifurcations, we use this method on the innovative design for Automatic Teller Machine, forecast several technical branch products, and then verify the effectiveness of this method by by Elsevier Ltd.Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license © 2015 2015 The TheAuthors Authors.Published Published Elsevier (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of TFC 2011, TFC 2012, TFC 2013 and TFC 2014 – GIC Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of TFC 2011, TFC 2012, TFC 2013 and TFC 2014 – GIC Keywords: Technology evolution branch; incremental innovation; radical innovation; disruptive Innovation; technology forecast * Corresponding author Tel.: +86-022-60204871; fax: +86-022-60438168 E-mail address: sjg@hebut.edu.cn 1877-7058 © 2015 The Authors Published by Elsevier Ltd This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of TFC 2011, TFC 2012, TFC 2013 and TFC 2014 – GIC doi:10.1016/j.proeng.2015.12.429 1114 Jian G Sun et al / Procedia Engineering 131 (2015) 1113 – 1120 Introduction Technology innovation is the direct driving force of changing the world [1] For any enterprise, in order to enhance competitiveness, they are important that forecasting the evolution process of the future technologies [2-3], developing a new generation product rapidly and meeting challenges of changes in the future Since Schumpeter proposed the theory of technology innovation [4], many scholars have engaged in exploring technology innovation theory and practice, improving technology innovation theory continuously In the 70s, R.Nelson and S.Winter created the theory of innovation evolution under the enlightenment of biological evolutionism, according to Nelson, the elements in an evolution system include innovation mechanism, selection mechanism, system’s searching ability etc [5] Ziman does further research on the similarity of technology evolution and biology evolution, he regards technology innovation as an ecological process [6] In TRIZ created by Altshuller, the theory of technology system evolution [7] is one of the important contents Altshuller thinks that all the technical systems evolve to the ideal final result [8] After Altshuller, many scholars supplement the theory of technology evolution in TRIZ Savransky mentions that the characteristic of technology evolution is shown as the long-term changes of technique in TRIZ [9] Zusman refers to the application of the Ideation/TRIZ methodology as directed evolution, which incorporated several hundred lines of evolution, constitutes a process for identifying comprehensive sets of potential evolutionary scenarios [10] Petrov divides the laws of technical system evolution into three levels: demands, functions and systems Besides, he divided the laws of system evolution into two groups: laws of system organization which define the viability of a system and laws of system evolution which define how technical systems evolve [11] The ultimate goal of technology evolution theory is to implement the technology forecast, and find more technology opportunities eventually The realization of technology forecast depends on the determination of technology evolution route, and the goal of technology evolution is to improve the performance of a technology subsystem Once the target that technology subsystem evolves to transfers, the branch of technical evolution route occurs [12] In the existing literatures, all the methods about technical evolution routes have some characteristics in common, the appropriate technology evolution route is determined according to the evolutionary history which has already happened, and then engineers forecast the next state of technology along this route [13-14] The existing methods can only forecast the adjacent state of technology on a continuous S curve According to the previous technological evolution situation, the future technology status can be forecasted and implemented, so to realize the generation of technology in advance However, the existing methods are unable to predict the technical route mutations among different S curves effectively With the fierce competition in the market, effective innovations usually occur in this kind of shifting process of technical routes, therefore, the research on analysis of these innovation opportunities [15] is of great significance Branch of technology evolution and search of technology opportunities 2.1 Innovation Classification in the technology evolution process The process of technology evolution usually can be expressed using a series of head-tail S curves, technology evolution process is restrained to the S curve trajectory, and the corresponding technical evolution path determines the classification of the innovation [13] As shown in Fig.1, the innovations occurring on the same S curve are often the problems of solving local conflict and improving performance They have high dependence on the path, and they are called Incremental Innovation (II) The innovation process occurring from B to C is II [16] When the product evolves to the exit stage, the improvement of the existing technologies has reached its limit, meanwhile, the product is unable to meet the market requirements, at this period, the innovation is realized by new alternative technologies, it is called radical Innovation (RI) [17-18] Jian G Sun et al / Procedia Engineering 131 (2015) 1113 – 1120 1115 Fig Innovation classification and evolution branch in the technology evolution process It is expressed as the head-tail transition between two S curves, as seen from Fig.1, the process from C to D Disruptive innovation (DI) occurs in the mature period of S curve It has two types, one is Low-end Disruptive Innovation (LDI), shown as the short-term backward on the S curve (from B to A in Fig.1), the other type is New market Disruptive Innovation (NDI), and it is shown as jumps between different S curves’ maturity period (from B to E in Fig.1) [19-20] 2.2 Technology evolution branches As shown in Fig.1, on the point B of S curve, the potential of technology evolution branch exists as follows x Branch of incremental innovation When the mainstream technologies of product are unable to meet the customers' need, and there are available resources, then we can adopt incremental innovation We enhance product mainstream technology and improve technology performance, so as to the technology of product rises on the existing trajectory x Branch of radical innovation Radical innovation occurs at the exit stage of S curve of technology evolution, it is called normal radical innovation However, if the resource conditions allow, it can also occur at the mature period of S curve, at this moment, it is called non-normal radical innovation The process generates higher level of innovation than other kinds of innovation The emergence of the technology evolution branches, depends on the export mutations of the existing system and discoveries of high-grade hidden resources x Branch of low-end disruptive innovation When mainstream technologies are in some state where customers’ needs are over-satisfied [21], at this time, the evolution branch can go into the branch of low-end disruptive innovation The corresponding mainstream technologies that are over satisfied can be reduced, and the system resources which are occupied too much are released It can reduce the cost of product, and then improve competitiveness of products x Branch of new market disruptive Innovation When some technologies of the product are in some state of dissatisfied [21], in other words, there are some performances of product are unable to satisfy customers’ need, at this time, products can enter an evolution branch of new market disruption to search technology opportunities 1116 Jian G Sun et al / Procedia Engineering 131 (2015) 1113 – 1120 correspondingly The difficulty of this process is the discovery of new markets The new markets are in accordance with technology sub-systems We can discover new markets through a portfolio analysis of technology subsystems Moreover, the entry of this evolution branch can be realized by using the existing resources comprehensively Because of the diversity of new markets, new market evolution branches usually have more technology opportunities than other types of technology evolution branches, therefore, this is the focus of our technical search Fig Innovation classification and evolution branch in the technology evolution process 2.3 arching technology opportunities on the bifurcations As shown in Fig.2, the first step is to choose a research object and analyze its technical maturity If the product exists at the exit stage, it is suitable for normal radical innovation Besides, if the product exists at the mature period, we can search technology opportunities through the following methods x Analyze the resources of the system The resources [22] of a system include internal-system resource and external- system resource We analyze resources by establishing the list of resources [23], if there are resources which can realize the breakthrough of technologies, we implement radical innovation at the maturity period Jian G Sun et al / Procedia Engineering 131 (2015) 1113 – 1120 1117 Besides, the establishment of resource list also provides support on the technical resources for achieving the mutations of other technical routes x Decompose the system and judge the evolution state of technology subsystems We decompose the technology system level by level and get technology sub-systems [24] We judge the evolution situation of these subsystems, as to the types of technology evolution state, they include the over-satisfied need state (ONS), the optimal performance state (OPS), and the dissatisfied need state (DNS) In the over-satisfied need state, one or more performances of this product are over-satisfied for customers When enterprises immerse in fierce competition blindly, this kind of situation is likely to happen Conversely, in the dis- satisfied need state (DNS), some performances of this product are insufficient for customers Besides, in the optimal performance state (OPS), the performance of each sub-system meets the requirements of customers exactly Determine the evolution branch and search technology opportunities Faced with the different evolution states of technology subsystems, we choose the corresponding innovation category and evolution branch When technology subsystem is in OPS, technology opportunities can be searched according to incremental innovation, shown as the process from B to A in Fig.2 Besides, when there are sub-systems are in ONS, we cut or weaken the ONS subsystem, the disruptive technology opportunities generate, shown as the process from B to E in Fig.2 x The technology sub-systems existing in DNS can generate more new market disruptive opportunities The formation of technology opportunities depends on many factors, as shown in Fig.2, the technology opportunities come from the customers’ need that are not satisfied The needs which are not satisfied include three types, the dis-satisfied needs of the existing customers, the needs of the future customers and the new needs which come from customers after they were stimulated The dis-satisfied needs of the existing customers can be got from the analysis result of the existing market and customers’ questionnaire, according to these measures, we can find the technology sub-system that did not satisfy customers’ need, after the adjustment of the technology sub-system, the new technology opportunities occur As to the needs of the future customers, it is similar with biology evolution or technology evolution, needs also are evolving, there are five laws of need evolution, they include several evolution directions, dynamics, specialization, idealization, integration and harmonization [25].According to the laws of need evolution, the product that customer need in the future can be developed in advance, so as to occupy the market As to the the new needs which come from customers after they were stimulated, designers stimulate the new demands of customers by adjusting functions of the product Besides, the stimulation of new needs can be also realized by adjusting functions [26] of the super systems Moreover, combined with the adjustment of the system itself, there will be more technology opportunities Case study Automatic Teller Machine (ATM) is a device located in some specific places by banks By means of the cards (usually refers to bank card) recording basic account information of customers, users can withdraw, deposit and transfer by means of this equipment [27] With years of development, the performances of ATM have been improved gradually, and the number of sub-functions increases For the tradition ATM, their technologies are going to the mature period At the same time, enterprises still engage in improving the performances of product along the existing technology evolution route Moreover, it is short of the innovation resources in this process The factors result in the difficulty of innovating along the existing technology evolution track, so it is urgent to search points of technology evolution branch 3.1 Technology system decomposition of ATM Technology system decomposition of ATM includes two parts, function decomposition and constraint items [24], as shown in Fig.3 As to the functions that a tradition ATM has, they include structural shielding function, the function of receiving the instruction of users, the function of transferring etc As to the constraints of ATM, they include portability, operability, energy conservation, cost and additional functions [28] 1118 Jian G Sun et al / Procedia Engineering 131 (2015) 1113 – 1120 Fig Decomposition of the technology system of ATM In order to realize its incremental innovation, based on existing resources and competitors' situation, the existing mainstream companies improve the corresponding product subsystem continuously, such as its operation safety, the reliability of transferring banknotes, efficiency of transmitting banknotes, etc Because this product is currently in the early stage of the maturity, the resources for radical innovation are in shortage, so there is no innovation opportunity for radical innovation The two kinds of opportunities mentioned above on the original technology evolution track, it is not the emphasis of this paper, this paper is mainly to research the technology branch and technology opportunities which break away from the original evolution track, namely the new market disruptive opportunities For the three classifications of needs, there are many opportunities of technology innovation We search innovation opportunities of the traditional ATM, the analysis process is as follows x Analysis of technology opportunities for the dis-satisfied needs of the existing customers.In our life, there is such a situation, when the user drives a car to withdraw from an ATM, the user must park first, as we all known, it is difficult to find the parking space, so the users want to withdraw without parking This is an opportunity of new market disruptive innovation, and this new product need to have the characteristic of lower height, the easier operation interface, etc Now there have been such equipment near the gas station For the sub-system of identifying the user, it is also dis- satisfied for customers Sometimes, it is hoped that unless the user him or herself, anybody is unable to operate the ATM using the bank card Therefore, the new technology opportunity occurs, the user can be identified by fingerprint, retina or other technologies x Analysis of technology opportunities for needs of the future customers For the dynamism of the needs’ evolution, which is one of the laws of needs’ evolution, next we analyse the innovation opportunities.With the change of the environment, such as seasons, temperature, noise, the running state of the new ATM can make changes correspondingly If the temperature of the environment changes, it will blow hot or cold wind automatically In addition, if the volume of noise in the environment changes, the volume of the service voice changes correspondingly There are also many factors like this, such as the change of light, the change of users’ height, etc For the specialization of the needs’ evolution, we analyse the innovation opportunities According to different Jian G Sun et al / Procedia Engineering 131 (2015) 1113 – 1120 1119 application occasions or crowds, there are many disruptive innovation opportunities For example, we can develop a new ATM for pupils, it only storages small banknotes, and it is easy to operate Besides, for parts of the disabled, we can develop a new ATM by strengthening or weakening some performances of the equipment x Analysis of technology opportunities for the new needs which come from customers when they are stimulated.The obstacles of generating these opportunities are mainly that the functions in the system or super system have some insufficiencies The generation of this kind of innovation is mainly from the added new function The realization of the new function roots in the full use of the existing resource or the application of additional resources One example, when the users are in an airplane, due to the constraints of the resources, it is impossible to transfer using mobile phones or other electronic equipment If it is a long journey and the transfer time is in conflict with the journey time, then the innovation opportunity occurs After analyzing the resources of the system, we find that the resource of the super system is insufficient, it lacks the information resource, so the implantation of the network is critical As we all known, banknotes carry a large number of bacteria, so an new ATM with the function of degerming would be popular, we can add the components of degerming in the transport channel In this way, users can get clean banknotes Another situation, according to the analysis of the resources of the system, we can add a function of weighing by using the internal system resource and super system resource together On the one hand, the weight shows at the screen during the operational process by applying substance resource and time resource, on the other hand, the support plate where users stand can be used to realize the function of weighing Conclusions Technology produces branches in the process of its evolution process, because of this, the technique branch also produces many branches of technologies, and many of them lead to effective innovation This paper studies the technology evolution branches in the process of the technology evolution, devides the evolution branches into four classifications, and gives the definition of each evolution branch Moreover, for each kind of branch, this paper gives the innovation strategy, especially the technology evolution branch of new market disruptive innovation Finally, we choose ATM for example to verify the validity of the proposed theory, and forecast its technology opportunities using this method Acknowledgements This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (51275153), the National Innovation Method Fund of China (2011IM010200, 2012IM020400, 2012IM040300), the science and technology plan project of Tianjin (13ZXCXGX70200) References [1] Pavitt K Technologies, products and organization in the innovating firm: what Adam Smith tells us and Joseph Schumpeter doesn't[J] Industrial and Corporate Change, 1998, 7(3): 433-452 [2] Kemp R., Soete L The greening of technological progress: an evolutionary perspective[J] Futures, 1992, 24(5): 437-457 [3] Rowe G and Wright, G The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis International Journal of Forecasting, 1999,15, 4: 353375 [4] Schumpeter J A The theory of economic development: An inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest, and the business cycle[M] Transaction Publishers, 1934 [5] Nelson 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Analysis of technology opportunities for needs of the future customers For the dynamism of the needs’ evolution, which is one of the laws of needs’ evolution, next we analyse the innovation opportunities. With... research on analysis of these innovation opportunities [15] is of great significance Branch of technology evolution and search of technology opportunities 2.1 Innovation Classification in the