a study of technology assessment report of the committee tap 2 docx

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A Study of

Technology Assessment

Report of the

Committee on Public Engineering Policy National Academy of Engineering

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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND ASTRONAUTICS

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Technology Assessment

Report of the

Committee on Public Engineering Policy National Academy of Engineering

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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND ASTRONAUTICS U.S HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND ASTRONAUTICS GEORGE P MILLER, California, Chairman

OLIN E TEAGUE, Texas JOSEPH E KARTH, Minnesota JAMES G FULTON, Pennsylvania CHARLES A MOSHER, Ohio SGN HECHEER, wets RICHARD L ROUDEBUSH, Indiana

EMILIOG DABDARIO, Connecticut ALPHONZO JOHN W DAVIS, Georgia THOMAS M PELLY, Washi BELL, Caria

THOMAS N DOWNING, Virginia JOHN W WYDLER, New Yor

JOE D WAGGONNER, Jx., Louisiana GUY VANDER JAGT,

DON FUQUA, Florida TARRY WINN, Jn, Kansas GEORGE BROWN, Jn, California JERRY L, PETTIS, Califor EARLE CABELL, Texas D.E, (BUZ) LUKENS, Ohio

BERTRAM PODELL, New York WAYNE N ASPINALL, Colorado ROBERT PRICE, Texas LOWELL P WEICKER, Jn, Connecticut ROY A, TAYLOR North Carolina HENRY HELSTOSKI, New Jersey MARIO BIAGGI, New York LOUISFREY Je Florida BARRY M GOLDWATER, Jn, California

[AMES W SYMINGTON, Mixouti WARD I KOCH, New York

Cuanuzs F, Ducanoen, Executive Director and Chief Counsel ‘Jou A, Cansvansien, Je, Chief Clerk and Counsel Pune B, Yesdun, Councel

Fea R Hasan, Jr, Counsel W.H Bons, Technical Consultant Janes B Winsox, Technical Consultont ‘Ricuaan P- Hines, Sta Consultant

Hanoxp A Gout, Technical Consultant

Pamir P, Diextwsoy, Technical Consultant Wittiaw G Wats, Je, Feehnical Gonsultont K Gump Ncxotg, fr, Sto Consultant

Euazanzra S Keanan, Scientific Research Assistant Denis C: Quiotey, Publications Clerk ‘Feann J, Gmoux, Clerk Ricuand K SHULLAW, Asitant Publications Clerk

Janes A Rose, Jr., Minority Staf

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Early in 1968 the Committee on Science and Astronautics concluded a formal agreement with the National Academy of Engineering calling for a special study of possible techniques to be applied in areas of Technology Assessment

This was the first contractual arrangement entered into by the Congress and the Academy The report here presented, A Study of Technology Assess- ment, is the result It addresses itself to a problem with which members of this committee have been working extensively for the past five years, and it will, we believe, be of marked significance in leading to effective legislation in the future

Tt should be pointed out and emphasized that the task performed by the ‘Academy has not been an easy one to undertake, for it deals with the highly complex, delicate, and elusive relationships existing between science and society Further, it attempts to forge useful, new tools for the utilization of one by the other

In carrying out the terms of the agreement and in developing the form and substance of the study, we are indebted to Representative Emilio Q Daddario who, as chairman of the Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Development, served as the congressional agent and focal point, and to Dr Chauncey Starr who, as chairman of the Academy's Committee on Public Engineering Policy, served in similar fashion on behalf of the Academy

Gzorce P Miter, Chairman, Committee on Science and Astronautics

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2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W., Wasuincton, D.C 20418

Office of the President

August 13, 1969 ‘The Honorable Georsz P Miter,

Chairman, Committee on Science and Astronautics,

US.House of Representatives, Washington, D.C

Dear Mr Mutter: I have the honor to transmit to you the report entitled A Study Of Technology Assessment Tt was prepared in response to your request that the National Academy of Engineering test the concept of technology assessment that has been proposed as a means for helping the Con- gress to secure maximum values from technology for our society The study provides a spectrum of tests, by field trial, of approaches to conducting technology assessment ; it also aims to discover those approaches that may be most generally suited to the conduct of technology assessment for congressional One of the key functions of the Academy, as stated in our Articles of Organization, is “To advise the Congress and the executive branch of the government, whenever called upon by any department or agency thereof, ‘on matters of national import pertinent to engineering.” This study is the first report of the National Academy of Engineering to the Congress, and is submitted as evidence of the Academy's intent to serve the nation through the organization and application of engineering talent

‘We hope this report will prove useful to your Committee in its further deliberations of this important concept Sincerely yours,

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2101 Constrrotion Avenue, N.W., Wasumcron, D.C 20418

Aveusr 11, 1969 Dr Eric A WALKER,

President, National Academy of Engineering, Washington, D.C

Dear Da WarxeR: When the Committee on Public Engineering Policy first undertook its assignment to explore the concept of technology assessment, we were concerned about the concept’s utility and practicality Prior to our feasibility studies, we felt—perhaps as others may have—that results from such assessments might become primarily impediments to the uses of technology We can now reflect on the collective experience of nearly 50 Participants in this work, which is summarized in this report

First of all, we now feel that useful methodologies are available for technology assessment and that more adequate ones can be developed through Practice Second, our experiences show that task forces of experts specifically constituted for particular technology assessments can accumulate data and develop insight on the potential impacts of technology on society Third, our preliminary work shows that such task forces can propose a variety of national strategies for modulating the effects of technology on society, thereby providing the legislator with a better base for his judgments on the role of government in influencing technology

Technology assessments might even be looked at more broadly In the carly 1960's, the use of systems analysis did much to rationalize the decision- making process involving policies and practices in the area of national security Those techniques illuminated the national choices and raised the quality of debates among the professionals and the public alike, Comparably, we believe that in the 1970's the practice of technology assessment could provide a more productive framework for decisions about the appropriate utilization of technology for social purposes With its help, it should be possible to place in context both the warnings from the prophets of doom and the promises of the enthusiasts Technology assessment would aid the Congress to become more effective in assuring that broad public as well as private interests are fully considered while enabling technology to make the

maximum contribution to our society's welfare

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Part I: Increasing the Value of Technology Assessments is based on the deliberations of the Committee on Public Engineering Policy (COPEP) ; Chauncey Starr, chairman,

Part I: Examination of the Three NAE Experiments in Technology Assessment is based principally on a report to COPEP by the Committee on Technology Assessment; George S Schairer, chairman

Part II: Experimental Technology Assessments is based on the work of the following groups:

Task Force on Teaching Aids of the Commission on Education, John R Whinnery, chairman

Chapter 1—Technology of Teaching Aids (and Appendix A) Task Force on Technology Assessment of Subsonic Aircraft Noise of the Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board, Leo L

Beranck, chairman

Chapter 2—Subsonic Aircraft Noise (and Appendix B)

Task Force on Technology Assessment of Multiphasic Health Screening of the Committee on the Interplay of Engineering with Biology and Medicine, John G Truxal, Chairman

Chapter 3—-Multphasic Health Screening

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Page ‘See

Summary of Findings g 3

Part 1: Increasing the Value of Technology Assessments 9 AGH Sutin T: Making, Technology Asseaments Most Useful What Tsues Are Most Urgent “Technology Assessments Most Useful —9 5 s

How Gan Reliability Be len Y8

‘How Should Technology Assessments Be Managed? 13 Section 2; Broadening the Concept of Technology Assessment — 1+

Problem-Initiated Analysis E212 15

2rrrrcg.v2rormerrrrrmrrmrrrmani) Reisisnonsiy importance of Nesowei Eoenscnioicrrersrv—-TE

jevising an intufive Contribuilons i

identifying and Kefining the Subject to be Assessed 2 Delineating the Scope of the Assessment and Developing

The Da Paleo OT

Identifying Alternative Strategies to Solve the Selected ‘Problems with the Technology under Assessment 37 Identifying the Parties Affected by the Selected Problems ‘and the Technology under Astessment Hội 38

IoệnHiybg fhe Tmpacb on the Affected Partie 8 Valuating or Meaturing the Impact -.er<scrrevcc Comparing the Fros and Cons of Alternative Saatagies 99 Z8 Section 2 LT ETI AE OTITIS Uharacteriston Of Ad Hoe"Taak Forces Tor Tectnalogy TOTTI A _

Sclection of Assessment Task Force Members — 30 Composition of the Task Force : 30 Ti toinnibine le Tail Forest of Responsbiides to che Task Force

Ability to Assemble a Data Base la 32 Section 3: Observations tional Mode Used in the NAE Experiments on the Methodology and the Organiza- 32

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Pare an THỊ: Experimental Technology Assessments ắ pay)

Chapter 1: Technology of Teaching Aids

Section 2: Data Base Summary 36

ee ‘pplication of Computer-Aaisied Applications of Datroeiouail TReyEEmS c8 Instruction 40 Section 2: T3egieaton of Alternative Strategies to Solve — ~~ the Selected Problems with the Technologies ne heme eee A ‘Section 4: Analysis of the Impacts of One of the Alternative

RE Funding Assumption’ na cecsee : 42 a2 Tigatiivation nd Clasitication “of —Teapaua ar —~

Strategy No.1 VÔ 4ể

‘Section 5: Conclusions Rased on the Valuation nf the Im- acts of Strategy No, 1 conn 068! Othe! Conclusions Derived Iran Analysis af Taipacts——71 [Sito 6: Obmerva nu abou: the Technology Anmeest

‘Methodology and Format TT nh D Ò_

Applicability of this Ässessment Approac] 74 Manpower and Cost Considerations T5 Chapter 2: Subsonic Aircraft Noise Hàn the Hơn quả ReBncment of the Subject

et gad Factor tobeasemed ct 1) Social Considerations i a) PT ‘onsiderations,

3) Technological Considerations

4) Political Considerations z :

Section 2: Assembly of the Data Base 73 Sicion 3 Identiicntion of Alemnative Sissiogiat tov Ais —— raters for Air

‘Section 4: Identification of Aflected Parties — 82 Section 5: Identification of Varying Impacts of Selected

Strategies: ERAS aE ae)

‘Section 6: Valuation of the Merits of Five Selected Alter

native Strategies tin 92

Sation 7: Conclusions Derived Bais” this Experientia —— DR Assestuientcccrsscrercrsrarssr TỐ Technology Chapter 3: Multiphasic Health Screening ‘Section 7: Identification and Refinement of the Subject

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tam Appendix A: Data Base for Technology of Teaching ‘ection T: Problems of Higher Education in the United States: 107

Tacreasing Costs i 107

Student Dissatisfaction 09

Section 2: Instructional Television Background Information 110 1 Breent Satu 22722322 zcxZtvvke-erkiikczicrii—- TIT

Section 3: Computer-Assisted Instruction sẽ so 138

‘Background Information 7 123

Preent Site C2 2.22122222222212 1M

Section 4: Funding Assumptions for Strategy No 1 139 Funding by the Federal Government sane HỘ 2) Funding by the State Government .- Funding by the Local Government : 40 141 (@) Funding by Private Foundations

Section 6: Opportunities for Reducing Aircraft Noise 156

Technological Prospects teers 108

‘Airport Soitem Plpning 7

Appendix C: Statements on Technology Assessment; National Acad-

eae CC

of Engineering Proposal # 177

‘Sequence of Steps in Technology Assessment ‘Tethnology Ascent 7 178 National teaderny of Eaginasring Brogan 2179 Appendix D: Participants in the NAE Study of Technology Assess

Tdi cos TBR

Committee on Technology Assessment 186 Task Force on Teaching Aids of the Commission on Fdu- (ations Ss eee ae Task Force on Technology Assessment _of Subsonic Air-

raft Noise of the Acrondutics and Space Engineering

đoạn, mm

‘Task Force on Multiphasic Health Screening of the Com- mittee on the Interplay of Engincering with Biology BMG

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In response to a request from the Committee on Science and Astro- nautics, U.S House of Representatives, the National Academy of Engi- neering has undertaken a study of technology assessment The phrase “technology assessment” was first introduced by Congressman Emilo Q Daddario, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Science, Research, and Development, to characterize the sociotechnical research that discloses the benefits and risks to society emanating from alternative courses in the development of scientific and technological opportunities

‘The conduct of this study has been the responsibility of the Commit- tee on Public Engineering Policy (COPEP) of the Academy To assist it in this study, a Committee on Technology Assessment was appointed to analyze and observe the experience of three separate experiments in technology assessment These were conducted by task forces ancillary to existing NAE committees dealing with issues in mature, developing, and embryonic technologies The experiments were investigations of methodology, feasibility, and the potential value of technology assessment by groups with varying backgrounds The results do not represent, nor were they anticipated to be, complete technology assessments

The NAE study consists of three parts: a summary of findings and commentary by COPEP about the concept and practice of technology assessment (Part I); an analysis by COPEP of the methodology used and observations on the characteristics of ad hoc task forces engaged in technology assessment experiments, drawn from the report and work of the Committee on Technology Assessment (Part II) ; and the principal records of the three assessment experiments (Part III) The participants in these various aspects of the entire study are listed in Appendix D

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The social impact of technological development has become so great that it affects many fundamental aspects of national policy and national life, Unless dependable means are developed to identify, study, and forecast the varying impacts that these technological developments might have on sectors of our society, the nation will be subjected to increasing stress in a time of social turbulence and will not benefit fully from technological opportunities

As a result of studies conducted by committees of the National Acad- emy of Engineering, the Committee on Public Engineering Policy be- lieves that technology assessment can help Congress to perceive, appraise, and initiate actions required to secure the greatest values from technology Technology assessment can be expected to perform important roles bj

(1) Clarifying the nature of existing social problems as they are fluenced by technology, possibly with indications of legislation needed to achieve satisfactory control

(2) Providing insights into future problems, to make possible the establishment of long-term priorities and to provide guidance for the allocation of national resources

(3) Stimulating the private and public sectors of our society to take those courses of action for the development of new technology that are ‘most socially desirable Such actions may be creative or defensive Cre- ative actions would be those that follow from the awareness of new opportunities for social development; defensive actions would be those involving restrictions on the use of technological developments

(4) Educating the public and the government about the short-term

and long-term effects of the range of alternative solutions to current

problems

Incorporating the examination in Part I and the data in Part III of this report, the Committee on Public Engineering Policy considers that

the following are the principal findings of this study

(1) Technology assessments on a broad range of subjects are feasible and can be expected to be useful to the decision-making processes of the Congress, when prepared by properly constituted, independent, ad hoc task forces with adequate staff support and time

(2) Technology assessments should be produced in an environment free from political influence or predetermined bias Especially when political factors are involved, it can be inferred from the pilot studies that the selection of a preferred course of action, among alternative

(8

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strategies derived from the assessment, is not a suitable task for the

technology assessment group This function should remain the pre-

rogative of the legislator after he has been provided with bases for the application of his judgment

(3) Members of a technology assessment task force should be chosen for their expertise but not as representatives of affected parties or special interests The viewpoints of affected parties should be brought to the

task force by volunteered or solicited presentations, and with special con-

cern to elicit views from those affected parties who are not normally organized in their own interests

(4) Task force members will necessarily come from public and private organizations that have knowledge about the subject under assessment Experience shows that task forces composed of members possessing a wide range of personal interests have been able to focus on the public interest and to neutralize the biases of the organizations with which they are associated

(5) The necessary, thorough investigation of the sociological and

political impacts of technologies under assessment requires extensive participation by behavioral and political scientists The NAE experiments in technology assessment indicated that engineers and economists

were able to work in harmony with these other professionals (6) To be of most use, a technology assessment should be completed in about one year; the conduct of the assessment should be the sole mission of the performing group

(7) A management organization, controlled by and answering to the Congress, should arrange for the preparation of technology assessments for congressional purposes No single, permanent organization can be

envisioned that could provide adequate in-house expertise to execute assessments in all of the fields that may be required by Congress Therefore it would be useful to establish such a small management organization to contract for or to administer and organize the assessment task forces

(8) In order to give full consideration to social as well as technical issues, technology assessments should include analyses of the cause-effect relationship between different government strategies and their social impacts and should be supplemented by the intuitive judgments of knowledgeable individuals

(9) Ttis useful to classify technology assessments as initiated (a) by an existing social problem or (b) by the potential of a new technology The methodology of assessment should proceed differently for each; more fully tested methodologies of systems analysis are available for the first

class, but the Congress is probably more concerned about the second

(10) The goal of a problem-initiated assessment is obviously to arrive at the best possible solution using the technologies at hand The

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inherently proliferating set of impacts in the technology-initiated case requires a choice between diffuse searches seeking some early warning signals and conversion to a problem-oriented study by selecting a few applications of the technology that might reveal the most significant impacts The uncertainty in this approach is that in making the selection

of problems to be addressed by the technology under assessment, important social and political impacts could be overlooked

(11) As elements in technology assessment, forecasts covering more than five years are likely to be unreliable because of unforeseen events and scientific discoveries The longer-term forecast is nevertheless valuable for planning and for “setting the stage” to evaluate the impact of un-

foreseen events when they do occur

(12) Criteria for establishing the priority of topics for assessment in-

clude the breadth and depth of the expected social impact, the visibility

of the problems to legislators and to the people, and the current and expected rates of development of the technologies

(13) ‘The appraisal of the accumulated spectrum of consequences of technological developments must include the derivation and use of measures of social value pertinent to “the quality of life,” in addition to the conventional economic and technical risk-benefit criteria

(14) Technology assessments can help alert the nation to future benefits and to future problems and can thus provide the public support nec- ‘essary for national programs designed to secure the benefits and to avoid those problems

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INCREASING THE VALUE OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS

‘Technology assessments can provide valuable policy guidance on national issues That is the primary conclusion reached by the NAE Com- mittee on Public Engineering Policy (COPEP) from its examination of Parts If and IIT of this report But that conclusion raises questions of when, how, and by whom these assessments are to be conducted To deal with these questions, COPEP has explored the nature and means for increasing the value of technology assessments

SECTION 1: MAKING TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS MOST USEFUL

Specifically, the questions dealt with in Section 1 are:

(1) How to determine the priority that issues proposed for assessment should be assigned What issues are most urgent?

(2) How to improve the reliability of forecasts and predic- ions contained in assessments How can reliability be increased?

(3) How assessments can be made to best serve congressional needs How should technology assessments be managed?

‘The underlying philosophy, methodology, and limitations of technology assessment are discussed in the remainder of Part I

WHAr Issuzs Are Most Urcent?

In selecting topics for assessments, the following criteria should be applied

(1) Does the technology application have significant economic or

social impact at the national level? The cost (in money and manpower) of performing an effective technology assessment requires that only those issues with high potential for significant social impact be considered for full-scale assessment

(2) Is the assessment needed to resolve a highly visible problem? Certain problem areas gain public attention and develop strong political pressures, Alleviation of today’s difficulties may be an essential step toward coping with tomorrow's problems

(3) Is the assessment concerned with rapidly changing technology (the so-called “hot areas”)? Fast-moving technology creates new ap-

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plications that often receive quick acceptance, thus arguing for assess- ‘ment well in advance of widespread public adoption

These criteria should be used by Congress to establish priorities in committing subjects to full-scale assessment Clearly, the evaluations and judgments associated with determining priorities are highly subjective, Nevertheless, it should be possible to estimate the relative im-

portance to our national welfare of broad categories of problems proposed

for assessment

The three illustrative experiments on the feasibility of technology assessment, described in Part III, were undertaken because they were in subject areas related to the present concerns of the existing committees of the NAE These subject areas do not necessarily represent a sclection of the most important national problems They are, however, revealing as test areas for the methodology of assessment, and each of them repre- sents problem areas of current public interest and significance

‘Application of these three criteria to the areas under study in Part IIT would identify the subsonic aircraft noise study as an example of a highly visible problem; as such, it merits a high priority The multiphasic health screening study has the earmarks of a socially significant study associated with a rapidly developing technology As such, it probably deserves consideration as a full-scale assessment area, but perhaps not as urgently as subsonic aircraft noise The teaching aids study also deals with a developing technology; although its tempo seems to be rather slow, an assessment could be justified by its high social significance

‘A companion consideration to the determination of priorities is the extent of commitment of professional and financial resources needed for the conduct of an assessment The necessity for depth and detail will vary widely according to the specific topic and its urgency To obtain the highest return for the efforts expended, most assessments should be con- centrated on the near future and supported at a relatively modest funding level Forecast reliability declines rapidly with extension into the future and with the number of sequential events predicted Still, long-term forecasts are important as a stage setting that guides short-term strategy

How Can Reuiaiuiry Be INcreasep?

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In 1937, a report was issued by a special agency of the federal govern- ‘ment, the Subcommittee on Technology of the National Resources Com- mittee: Technological Trends and National Policy, Including the Social Implications of New Inventions Today, some of of its predictions seem

astonishingly accurate, while others have been shown to be wrong ‘The report itself was extensive, including five essays on the social aspects of technology, two chapters on the science-technology relationship, and an appraisal of future technological development in nine major areas The report is significant because its aims were identical to those of technology assessment Although the conclusions in the 32-year-old report are broader than merely tracing the most likely risks and rewards of future technology, this type of bencfit-risk reasoning has a prominent

role throughout the analysis

Its discussion of the social impact of technology is at least as valid today as when the original report was issued Among the conclusions drawn

are:

‘Though the influence of invention may be so great as to be

immeasurable there is usually opportunity to anticipate its impact on society since it never comes instantaneously, without signals

While a serious obstacle to considering invention in planning is a lack of precise knowledge, this is not irremediable or the

most difficult fact to overcome Other equally serious obstacles are inertia of peoples, prejudice, lack of unity of purpose, and

the difficulties of concerted action

‘The report wisely notes that, in guessing the future,

powerful principle comes to one’s aid, making it easier to predict the effects than the inventions themselves, the principle, namely, of functionally equivalent invention

In other words, an overall trend in technology will continue to develop by one means or another; often the goal is clear and eventually achieved, even though the path to it may be vague

The report did not anticipate the profound social effects that World War IT had on scientific and engineering progress Also notably absent was any clue to the social impact of several of the revolutionary technological developments of our day, such as nuclear power, ballistic mis- siles, the transistor, the digital computer, and space exploration In a number of other areas, however, the discussions did presage important * US Congress, House Document 360, Technological Trends and National Poticy, Including the Social Implications of New Inventions, Report of the Subcommittee on

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issues and problems Among these were the emergence of television as a significant social force and industrial element; the impact of the automo- bile, highway transportation, and air travel on economic and social mo- bility; the accelerating trend toward automation in industry and its effect on our economic structure; the mechanization of the farm; and the movement of rural populations toward industrial centers

‘The report, then, was only marginally reliable in terms of specific technical developments, Nevertheless, the report was successful in calling early attention to many important social trends connected with anticipated technological progress Clearly, the conclusions would have been valuable to government planners, had they been taken as bases for federal action

The failures of the 1937 report stemmed from the heavy dependence on extensions of cause-effect relationships That technique is valuable, but it is important in any successful technology assessment to bring to bear the opinions of creative, imaginative thinkers who, starting from a frame~ work of logic and existing knowledge, can apply well-informed intuition to long-term forecasting

‘How well this approach can work is illustrated by the forecast in The

Next Hundred Years, written by C C Furnas in 1936:

Re space travel—Then there are those who consider this mundane sort of thing a bit amateurish Pooh! An altitude of

one hundred thousand feet! What's that? Just under nineteen

miles If adventure, knowledge, and speed are what you want, make a clean sweep of all this earthly clutter and go exploring through interplanetary space on a rocket ship of some variety Silly chatter? Perhaps I do not doubt that some day a great crowd will gather at some aviation field to watch a man

be locked into a peculiar bullet-like machine on the first bona

fide trip to the moon I hardly expect it to be in my day 2

Not all of Furnas’ predictions were so prescient and so fully realized In the life sciences, several advances that were forecast are yet to be realized The promise of hormone research in coping with personality abnor-

malities and the understanding of the basic nature of living matter have not yet been achieved But there are still two thirds of a century left for the realization of Furnas’ predictions

Probably the most significant lesson from the early attempts at a long- range technological forecasting is that despite success in selecting probable developments, there was a consistent failure to properly predict their time scale In most cases, timing errors were the result of unforeseen social, economic, or political events, such as war Also, important developments were entirely missed in both of these documents Omissions

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were mainly due to unanticipated technical inventions or scientific

discoveries,

Tt would appear, then, that the almost certain occurrence of unpre- dictable events and discoveries limits the value of long-term forecasting (over 25 years) Nevertheless, such long-term forecasting plays a very important role in preparing the planner for the pattern of continual technological change, in setting the stage for the events of the future even when details are incomplete and inexact A long-term forecast provides a context for evaluating the new and the unexpected—a base capable of changing in detail while sustaining the broad perspective In fact, the Fumas book and the 1937 report would indicate that any long-term forecast should be modified at least every five years to include unexpected

events and to recalibrate the timing estimates

The desire to improve the accuracy of forecasting is universal New techniques are constantly being tried, particularly in the technical and economic fields Additional efforts to improve forecasting accuracy can be encouraged by requiring that every technological assessment contain a plan for continuous review and evaluation of the methods and techniques used These periodic reviews will update the forecasts while providing a basis for improved techniquesin the future

How Srourp TecuNonocy Assessments Be Manaczp?

Full-scale technology assessments should be performed by carefully chosen, single-purpose, and specially qualified ad hoc task forces that will be disbanded upon completion of their assignments The detailed characteristics of such groups are discussed in Part II,

‘To select and oversee groups that will perform technology assessments, a core management organization is recommended, No permanent organization can be envisioned that could provide adequate expertise to execute full-scale assessments in all of the fields that may be required ‘We believe that it would be useful, therefore, to establish a small admin- istrative staff to work with Congress toward deciding when a subject warrants a technology assessment, to prepare statements of work to be performed, to subcontract for and to manage and organize the assessment teams, to provide fiscal controls, to maintain schedules, to monitor the preparation of the findings, and to arrange for suitable presentations of the findings to Congress

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prede-termined bias Specifically, the organization should be able to contract for ascessments on any subject chosen by Congress and to select organizations for the performance of the work without political consideration Such an arrangement should permit the separation that is desired between the preparation of the assessments and their eventual use by

Congress

Organizations that have been helpful as vehicles for past congressional studies on questions related to technology assessment include the General ‘Accounting Office, the Library of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the National Re- search Council as well as certain committees of the Congress These ‘groups may be considered for tasks in this area

In general, existing groups in the executive branch of the government are unlikely to be suited to the performance of technology assessments

for Congress because such organizations have other primary missions, have a spectrum of skills weighted toward their specialized disciplines,

may be committed to existing programs of the executive branch, and ‘would have to be provided with special budgets and temporary staff to carry out the new function of technology assessment

‘The traditional mode of congressional activity, as embodied in the

committee system, poses questions about how a technology assessment management organization should be related to that overall structure ‘This matter should be resolved through further study directly by the

Congress Since Congress already has at its disposal a variety of means for collecting information, in addition to public hearings, the adminis- trative mechanism that is chosen for managing technology assessment should permit all such channels to be used for the collection of information,

SECTION 2: BROADENING THE CONCEPT OF TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

‘The present concept of technology assessment is set forth most clearly by Congressman Emilio Q Daddario It states the urgent need to improve our methods for appraising the technical, political, economic, and social influences arising from science and technology, and it outlines a tentative approach to the problem (sce Appendix GC)

Congressman Daddario’s essay suggests that technology assessment should concentrate mainly on establishing the cause-effect relationships that result from the development of a technology and its impact on society Such cause-effect chains can then be used to appraise short- and long-term effects, and also the good and bad impacts, of an emerging * Technology Assessment," statement of Emilio Q Daddario, Chairman, Subcom-

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technology As outlined, this assessment procedure would also suggest legislative policies and actions that could help maximize benefits and minimize undersirable side effects as a new technology is developed In reviewing the results obtained by the NAE study teams using pri-

marily the cause-effect methodology, COPEP found that assessments

based on the use of a purely causal methodology would have certain limitations To understand these limitations more fully, distinction needs to be made between the approach to assessment tasks in two classes: the problem-initiated and the technology-initiated

PROBLEM-INITIATED ANALYSIS

To begin with, the cause-effect chain concept is closely allied to the systems analysis method underlying all engineering endeavors By a process of systematic reasoning, combined with judgment and foresight, the consequences of each anticipated future event are analyzed and extended In this way, more of the future possibilities are brought to light Systems analysis has unquestionably been of considerable value to the planner But its successes have been limited to problems that have one characteristic in common: almost all the variables are focused toward

a well-defined goal, namely, the solution of a problem Stated differently,

the use of cause-effect chains in systems analysis has proved most useful where the future course of events is a converging one, where many causal chains converge on one or at most toward a few end-points The process begins at the large end of a funnel, and the optimum solution to a given problem emerges at the small end

The attention of Congress is normally focused on a variety of existing social problem areas including some that are likely to be amenable to the methodology problem-initiated technology assessments Subsonic aircraft noise is an example of such a social problem Air pollution caused by automobiles, degraded freshwater resources, congested air traffic insufficient low-cost urban housing, and rising health care costs are other

problems that impact on society and that can be and, in most cases, are

likely to be satisfactorily assessed by the cause-effect methodology Such assessments, directed to the solution of identified problems existing in our society, can be classified as problem-initiated The more fully tested methodologies related to systems analysis are available for adaptation

to the conduct of these assessments

'TECHNOLOGY-TNITATED ANALYSIS

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of both new and exising technologies—the technology-

ments, Space satellites, lasers, genetic modification, and digital computers

are all examples of technological developments that cause the legislator and his constituents to ask: “What will happen to our society as these technologies are developed and integrated into the life of all citizens?”

‘The NAE studies of teaching aids and multiphasic health screening were

undertaken because of a concern about the future impact of these tech-

nologies

‘When the cause-effect method of assessment is applied to technology- initiated situations, the results will differ substantially from the results that

can be obtained from problem-initiated assessments While the problem-

initiated assessment focuses on solving a stated problem, the process involved in an assessment of a new technology is better represented by analogy with an inverted funnel The assessment process begins with the new technology at the small end and emerges as a complex pattern of consequences at the large end As cause-effect chains diverge, predicta- bility of events diminishes Picking the winner of a horse race is difficult enough, and putting money,on the daily double is many times riskier Statistically, if four events in sequence are predicted, each with a reliability of 80 percent, the reliability of the final prediction falls to 41 percent (0.8 X 0.8 X 0.8 X 0.8) Thus, the farther that predictions pretend to see, the greater their degree of uncertainty

Still further complexity is introduced when the analysis includes, as it should, the consequences of alternative governmental strategies designed to cope with the effects that have been predicted For each new strategy considered, a series of diverging cause-effect chains is generated The number of consequences becomes multiplied by the number of policy al- tematives or strategies considered for each Clearly, any attempt to reach broad conclusions from such a vast array of possibilities is likely

to be unreasonably expensive, time consuming, and inaccurate Thus it

it much more difficult to achieve meaningful evaluation for a technology- initiated assessment than for a problem-initiated assessment Because of the uncertainty and potentially broad scope of the impacts of new tech-

nologies, their assessment is probably of most concern to Congress The

availability of appropriate methodology to perform these is more limited

Resutts Improvep By Narrowep Focus

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For example, the teaching aids study team redefined and limited its study area to the evaluation of television and computer-assisted instruction as an aid to the solution of two major problems of higher education Furthermore, its identification of impacts was limited only to first-order and second-order effects By so doing, it could proceed with the evaluation, primarily by cause-effect methodology, and conduct an assessment experiment that revealed specific features about the effect of one strategy

on the social impacts of the technology

The study group concerned with the effect of the technology of multiphasic screening centers also converted its task into a problem-initiated study by examining that technology in the context ofits value for improving the health of the nation The group found that the reliable identification of impacts was severely limited by the undeveloped state of the data base As a result, the group made recommendations for additional research and data acquisition to make a sounder assessment possible in the future

In summation, the cause-effect chain analysis does not lead easily to well-defined conclusions when applied to technology-initiated studies unless the study is modified by focusing the technology toward one or at most a few potential areas of social concern or of social opportunity that might be significantly affected by the subject technology If the selection of these areas is perceptive, the most significant future impacts (even second- and higher-order impacts) of the technology will be identified The uncertainty in this approach is that in making the selection of problems to be addressed, important social and political impacts could be overlooked

Importance OF ÏNTUITTVE CONTRIBUTIONS

One of the important roles envisioned for technology assessment is

the detection of trends that offer opportunities for enrichment of the quality of life or that represent threats to one or more parts of our society As previously noted, applying only cause-effect methods to technology- initiated studies produces a mass of data but few broad conclusions

An improved approach is to organize the assessment effort so as to

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mi-nority reports as parts of the study team’s total deliberations The essential point is that subjective, unprovable comments should be solicited actively and incorporated in complete technology assessments The intuitive judgments of wise and creative individuals may provide a key element in the structuring of the technology-initiated assessments This is comparable to the successful experience of industrial technical management in utiliz-

ing the judgment of experienced individuals

Even in the problem-initiated analysis, intuition is to be valued; in these cases, too, there will be knowledge gaps that will not yield readily to cause-effect analysis alone Here again, the intuition of experts will be an important aid to evaluating uncertain relationships and could lead toward more valid conclusions

Ttis well to emphasize that creativity and intuition are highly personal,

so that the choice of individuals to be involved in technology assessment

is as vital as the considerations in casting the actors for a new play The better the understanding of the problem, the greater the probability of

imaginative approaches to the issues that will be uncovered

DEvisiG AND APPLYING SOGIAL VALUE CRITERIA

In addition to intuitive contributions to the evaluation of impacts, some value judgments can be aided by the more conventional risk-benefit studies Assessments of the relationship between expected technical performance and monetary costs are traditional enginecring practice In some cases, benefits can be translated directly into monetary terms, and numerical relationships can identify the greatest benefit for the lowest cost

However, since a technology assessment should include an appreciation of the entire spectrum of social consequences as well as of technical and ‘economic impacts, techniques for evaluating these social consequences are of the greatest interest To quote from the 3rd Progress Report of the House Subcommittee, “a progressive society is venturesome—willing to take risks in order to achieve potential benefits.” * The social value question is, of course, how much risk to take for what benefit As was also pointed out in that Progress Report, aside from economic and easily quantifiable social effects “other results are not so easily calculated into the risk-benefit equations.”

‘The desire to expand the traditional measures of value to include social values has led to some research on seemingly nonquantifiable considerations An illustration of the development of such methodology is contained in the exploratory report “Social Benefit versus Technological Risk,” by C Starr:

‘Policy Issues in Science and Technology, Review and Forecast”—3rd Progress Report of the Subcommittee on Science, Retearch, and Development of the Commit tee on Science and Astronautics, U.S House of Representatives, 90th Congress, Second

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‘Two assumptions are made in this analysis The first is that historical national accident records are adequate for revealing

consistent patterns of societal risks (fatalities) in the public use

of technology The second assumption is that such historically revealed social preferences and costs are sufficiently enduring

to permit their use for predictive purposes

Within the constraints of these assumptions, I present here both a methodology and initial exploratory results These may ‘be useful for properly assessing the justification for technological risks (as a social cost) in terms of related social benefits In the absence of economic or sociological theory which might do better, this empirical approach provides some interesting insights to social values as related to personal risk Because this methodology is based on historical data, it does not dis tinguish between what is “best” for society from what is “tra- ditionally acceptable.” However, the study does examine some of the parameters which influence such acceptability.*

As a way to develop risk-benefit relationships, the clarification of social value criteria, such as those Dr Starr presents on two classes of personal risk (voluntary and involuntary), is a step toward improving technology assessments Technology assessments without social value measures will be incomplete A significant aspect of this type of study is its use of past and present experience as evidence of social values, revealed by the examination of data about social behavior Although the study referred to reports on areas in which statistical information is available, the methodology is probably applicable also to a variety of less well-documented social questions

SECTION 3: DERIVING MAXIMUM BENEFITS FROM TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS

‘As the problems of modern society multiply in number and complexi public pressure to resolve them also grows The individual finds it in- creasingly difficult to know or understand the decisions proposed or adopted by his government On the other hand, without public support, the elected legislator often cannot generate the political momentum necessary to enact desirable legislation, particularly if the short-term consequences are unpleasant for some segment of the electorate

For example, air pollution is a long-standing problem and obviously needs public support for creative action Awareness of the nature of the problem, proposals for its solution, and laws aimed at implementing these solutions are to no avail if public will to resolve the problem is lacking The fact that public apathy on this question has existed for a rather extended ¥G Starr, “Social Benett versus Technological Risk,” presented at the Symposium on Human Ecology, Warrenton, Va,, November 24-27, 1968 Revised January 1969

Available from the School of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Cali- fornia, Los Angeles

32-874 09-3

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period is strikingly illustrated by the following quotation from the London Mechanics Magazine, dated May 22, 1824:

In conclusion, the law declares smoke-vomitting to be illegal

and penal; fuel which burns free from smoke can be procured

If, the law remain a nullity, because it is not called into action, if the discharges of smoke be not reduced, the fault will rest with the public, who, having power, neglect to enforce the

adoption of a remedy

Tam, Sir

‘Your obliged Correspondent,

ANTI-FUMUS

‘Technology assessments, properly presented, should be used to aid in the resolution of this dilemma As an instrament of the Congress, a technology assessment could help publicize specific conclusions and recommendations However, imaginative means for informing the citizen of these conclusions may be required to ensure that he is provided with such information at least as effectively as he is provided with data to select his next car Once an assessment has been made, if extensive efforts are not used to educate the public on issues, a major value of the assessment will be neglected and the ultimate effectiveness of these efforts may be sharply reduced

The appraisal of society's readiness to adjust to technology-induced change must be part of complete assessments; and one of the major objectives of these assessments should be exposure of the principal non- technical obstacles to a constructive use of technology by society In certain cases, the assessment may find a technology to be fully developed and available, but lack of public appreciation of its potential benefits prevents its acceptance In these cases, the preparation of the social framework, through education, to accept constructive technological change should be given priority attention, if technology is to make its maximum contribution

‘The use of technology assessment, as an alerting device, is of particu- Jar importance to flag the potentially harmful consequences of some industrial activities Brought to the attention of industry officials, the opportunity to initiate self-policing actions could result in effective pre- ventative measures, thereby eliminating the need for restrictive govern mental legislation,

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Technology assessment consists of a mixture of warning signals and

visions of opportunity Warning signals arise when the analysis predicts

trends leading toward adverse consequences Similarly, the analysis can point to actions that give promise of substantial improvements in the national quality of life It is most important that assessment participants pursue with equal fervor the development of both the creative possibilities of technology and the defensive needs of society Preoccupation with emerging problem areas, particularly those that seem to require regula- tory legislation, can easily stifle innovative technical and social contributions, By contrast, the creative use of the technology assessment process would provide a meeting ground between public and private interest to work out mutually desirable courses of action

Because of the multiplicity of pressures on a democratic system, it has

often been said, “the management of crises” is the customary response of government A key opportunity presented by technology assessment

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EXAMINATION OF THE THREE NAE EXPERIMENTS IN TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

At the initiation of the NAE’s work on technology assessment, COPEP requested the formation of an NAE Committee on Technology Assess- ment to assist in the examination of the results of the experiments The committee was formed under the chairmanship of Dr George S Schairer; membership consisted of two members of COPEP and the chairmen of the existing NAE committees active in the subject areas chosen for experiments in assessment The Committee on Technology Assessment examined the differences and similarities in methodologies ‘used in the experiments, Based on the findings of the Committee on Tech- nology Assessment and its report to COPEP, it can be observed that ad hoc task forces of knowledgeable and competent people, professionally in-

volved in the subject area under assessment, can produce findings and re-

ports useful for congressional consideration

The principal records of the experiments in technology assessment on which this observation is based are contained in Part I1T of this report

Part II wil

(1) Describe the methodology used in those studies

(2) Analyze the experience gained in using task forces to conduct such studies

(3) Examine the interaction of the methodology with the organizational mode used in these experiments

SECTION 1: METHODOLOGY USED IN THE NAE EXPERIMENTS

The NAE experiments in technology assessment used primarily a methodology that is closely congruent with steps outlined by Congress- man Daddario, although not necessarily in the same order The steps used by the NAE Task Forces were as follows:

(1) Identify and refine the subject to be assessed

(2) Delineate the scope of the assessment and develop a data base

(3) Identify alternative strategies to solve the selected prob- Jems with the technology under assessment,

(4) Identify parties affected by the selected problems and the technology

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(5) Identify the impactson the affected parties (8) Valuate or measure the impacts

(7) Compare the pros and cons of alternative strategies

‘The differing formats and emphases of the three reports may submerge some of the common elements, but examination will disclose some or all of these seven steps in varying degrees in the three pilot assessments

IpeNrirviw6 AND REriNING THE Susyecr To Be AssEssED

The first step of the assessment process as practiced by the NAE Task Forces was to identify and refine the subject area under assessment in each study

‘The character of each of the pilot assessment studies undertaken, whether problem-initiated or technology-initiated, had to be recognized The goal of a problem-initiated assessment is obviously to arrive at the best possible solution to some problem using technologies at hand In technology-initiated assessments, the goal is either to identify possible impacts, both good and bad, of some new developing technology or to convert the effort to a problem-initiated study by selecting applications that match the technology to several actual or potential problems

‘The assessment experiment in the field of teaching aids began as a technology-initiated study when that Task Force first defined its assignment as:

Given the existence of a range of technology-based teaching aids, where can they make a major impact on education, what will this impact be, will the overall consequences be favorable, and what will be the trade-offs among favorable as well as

unfavorable impacts?

After an initial period of data base accumulation, the limitations of time and effort and the apparently ever-expanding series of necessary considerations led the members to focus the study on the application of two specific technological teaching aids, namely instructional television and computer-assisted instruction, to two significant problems in higher education The goal of the study then became:

To assess the promise of various alternative strategies for the development and use of systems of instructional television and computer-assisted instruction at institutions of higher educa~ tion in the United States, as a means for alleviating rising costs without sacrificing quality of instruction and as a means for

reducing or eliminating incidents of student unrest

‘The assessment experiment in the field of multiphasic health screening was also a technology-initiated study, originally being concerned with all the impacts and applications of that medical technology It was also converted to a study of a specific application of the new technology, namely,

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the application of an automated health screening system to cope with increasing public health problemsin the United States ‘The assessment experiment on subsonic aircraft noise was problem- initiated, and its goal was recognized to be the identification of means to reduce the undesirable effects of aircraft noise near airports, without in- troducing equally or more undesirable effects on the growth of civilian aviation services,

ĐELINEATING THE Score oF THE AssEssMENT AND DEVELOPING THE DATA BASE

‘The second step was to set appropriate limits on the scope of the studies and to develop the best possible data base once this delineation of the scope had been made

In these studies, the Task Forces needed and were given wide latitude in the definition of the scope and goal of the assessment exercise How- ever, it was also understood that in an actual assessment effort, a management group would initially provide the task forces with a detailed definition of the assessment area and goals and the membership of the task force would be chosen and modified as necessary during the conduct of the assessment so as to be able to carry out the assigned task

Each experimental assessment effort led its Task Force members to the realization that a complete assessment would require a very substantial investment in time and effort These feasibility studies showed that it is necessary for task force members to meet and react with each other sufficiently to develop respect for all opinions, viewpoints, and judgments This interaction requires a number of meetings, and suitable time and circumstances should be provided for repeated exchanges during full- scale technology assessments

TpENTIYVING ALTERNATIVE ŠrRATEoIES TO SOLVE THE SELECTED PqosLeMs WITH THE TECHNOLOGY UNDER ASSESSMENT

In the third step in the experimental assessment studies, alternative strategies were identified as the means to solve the selected problems with the technology under assessment

In these experiments, each group considered the consequences of a limited number of strategies for utilizing the technology under assessment ‘An actual technology assessment must consider all the probable strategies that become known to it

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in some detail In the multiphasic health screening study, the available

data base was not sufficiently developed to permit meaningful definition of alternative strategies,

Insight about possible strategies for implementation scemed to develop carly in the Task Force deliberations Attempts were made to identify as many strategic options as possible and to record them as they arase It was important for the Task Forces to make concerted searches for these options from the very beginning, since they were central to later activities and deliberations

IbeNTIFYING THE PARTIES AFFECTED BY THE SELECTED PROBLEMS AND THE TECHNOLOGY UNDER ASSESSMENT

‘The fourth step in the assessment process was the identification of the parties affected by the technology under assessment Professionals from the social and behavioral sciences were most helpful in identifying potentially affected groups

‘The initial identification consisted of listing groups that have expressed interest in the subject under assessment, groups that the Task Force be- lieved were likely to be affected or that may be known to have special interests Considerable care was required because parties may be affected that initially may not themselves be aware of any involvement As the analysis proceeded, new groups were identified and these were added to the list In more complete assessments, some groups initially identi fied may later need to be differentiated more finely For example, within

a group of educational institutions, distinctions may need to be made between large institutions and small institutions, or between state-supported institutions and privately supported institutions

Alll alternative strategies considered may affect the same parties, as in the teaching aids study; or different groups may be affected by the various alternative strategies, as in the subsonic aircraft noise study

TDENTIEYING THE IMPACTS ON THE A¥FECTED PARTIES

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VALUATING OR MEASURING THE IMPACTS

‘The succeeding step was to valuate and cumulate the impacts on all the affected parties according to criteria and/or scales of values This

appears to be the most difficult step in the technology assessment

Since impacts or consequences are often not quantifiable in readily

appreciated terms, such as cost, sophisticated and comprehensive judg-

‘ments about societal values must be made,

The limited merit of assigning only dollar costs to impacts on society can be quickly illustrated if an attempt is made to evaluate the impact of aircraft noise in monetary terms A resident near an airport who is disturbed by the noise of an airplane during its approach or landing is probably not nearly so concemed with the effect of the noise on the value of his property as he is with irritation and disturbance of his peace of mind Groups of residents aroused by noise may take legal or political action to have it abated Evaluation of the probability of such action is neither primarily a technical question nor a matter that can be resolved by simple cost-benefit studies In some fields that are likely to come under assessment, such as transportation policy, societal value determina- tions are currently the subject of intensive research and development; in other fields, few guidelines for valuation schemes are available In the absence of rational methodology, the synthesis of the intuitive judgments of a suitable task force may be most helpful Valuation of the impacts is a crucial step in the assessment process and will require a substantial commitment of effort from task force members preparing full- scale assessments, Social scientists can be of great assistance in the evaluation of impacts The identification and accurate forecasting of public

reactions is particularly vital information to the legislator for his further

deliberations

Tt must be emphasized that the impact valuations contained in the assessment experiments discussed here were made principally to serve a5 examples for the development of assessment methodology

Companine THE Pros AND Cons oF ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES

Once the impact valuations have been made, one further additional step should be attempted: a synthesis of these impact valuations in order

to indicate the most attractive strategy or strategies for matching the

promise of the technology under assessment to the problems selected for application

In its exploration of one strategy in some detail, the Task Force on ‘Teaching Aids conducted the impact valuation for that strategy and com- mented on possible courses of action that might be followed in the cases, where unfavorable consequences were predicted A much greater effort ‘would be required to accomplish that analysis for the number of alterna-

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tives that would be considered in a full-scale technology assessment In fact, some individuals who were involved in the experiments felt that the sclection of an optimum or preferred course of action is not a suitable task for a technology assessment group and that this function should remain the prerogative of the legislator after he has been provided with bases for

the application of his judgment This may be an area of continuing con-

troversy during the conduct of future technology assessments

SECTION 2: CHARACTERISTICS OF AD HOC TASK FORCES FOR TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENTS

Since all three NAE experimental assessment studies were produced by Task Forces, the results obtained may be used to measure and to characterize the task force mechanism for the preparation of technology assessments A review of the activities of the three Task Forces led to the identification of several important considerations for the conduct of future full-scale assessments by this mechanismn,

§PLECTION or Assessment Task Force MEMBERS

‘The selection of a task force chairman, and with his assistance, the selection of task force members, is probably the most sensitive step in assuring an effective technology assessment Members of a technology assessment task force should be chosen for their expertise in one or more phases of the subject under assessment They should not be chosen as vehicles for the presentation of the coordi nated viewpoints of affected parties; as a matter of fact, the coordinated viewpoints of affected parties should be brought to the task force by means of special and separate presentations rather than directly through its membership

Composrrion or THE Task Force

‘The Task Force chairmen felt that in going beyond their initial experimental assessment studies, the in-depth investigation of sociological, political, and economic impacts would require, in addition to extensive further contributions from the Task Force members, supplementary per- sonnel, including economists and sociologists

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ÂsSIGNMENT OF RESPONSIBILITIES TO THE TASK FORCE

By requesting existing committees of the NAE to undertake, as an additional task, the management of experimental assessment studies in subject areas related to their respective principal activities, it was hoped that there would be indications that this might be a way to speed up the

assessment process and reduce its cost The assumption was that the ready availability of a reservoir of expertise, assembled for a related purpose,

would enable some increased efficiency The limited experience indicates that little appears to be gained by this approach An assessment effort seems to require that its conduct be the sole mission of the performing group for the following reasons:

(1) The conduct of the assessment will usually require addi- tions to the membership of the managing or the executing group to take actions or to meet schedules that might be incompatible with the nature of other current assignments to a group established for other purposes (2) The time available from qualified task force members is

always likely to be limited by their other occupations Extracurricular demands, in addition to those of the assessment, might exceed that limit,

(3) To be most useful, an assessment should be completed in about one year Such time pressure requires the most direct application of the energies of the task force carrying out the assignment

Buses oF Task Forces

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Apurry To Assemate a Data Base

‘The existence and availability of background information is essential for any assessment effort

Itis apparent that every technology assessment task force will identify information that it would like to have and that it thinks is possible to produce, but that will not become available within the time allotted to

the study Obviously, if one had to wait for the development of the com-

plete data base before concluding any technology assessment, the identification of some courses of actions for avoiding some of the readily uncovered unfavorable impacts of a technology may be delayed to the detriment of the general public Incomplete data bases may be a problem for some technology assessment task forces, but it also appears, from these experiments, that task forces can produce useful reports within the limitations of the readily available data bases

‘The experience of the NAE Task Forces indicated that since most of

the members were professionals working in the technologies involved, the

technical state of the art was well known to them Forecasts about the future development technologies could also be made with reasonable confidence in most cases However, data were incomplete, in general, with respect to potential political and social impacts of the technologies The inability to distinguish the most strongly causative factors from the many

that might be involved pointed to the areas in which better data were

needed

Also, in the experimental assessment of the utility of instructional television and computer-assisted instruction, sociological data were not available concerning the consequences of the possible realignment of the relative roles of education of the home, the school, and industry Broad social and economic repercussions could result from such changes in the higher education system of the country To go beyond the speculation of informed individuals would require some broad sociopolitical studies that have not been undertaken to date

SECTION 3: OBSERVATIONS ON THE

METHODOLOGY AND THE ORGANIZATIONAL MODE USED IN THE NAE EXPERIMENTS

Each Task Force chairman confirmed that his first undertaking was to work with the members he had selected toward a clear identification of the technology or of the problem that was to come under assessment Based on discussions with the Task Force chairmen, COPEP notes that the following observations can be made:

(1) The Task Force members were able to identify significant alter-

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selected problems, although by no means were all the possible strategies identified In the study of instructional television and computer-assisted instruction, an attempt was made to follow the process through to the evaluation of a particular strategy A comparison of alternative strategies, ‘was beyond the scope of that experiment

(2) Although identification was readily made of particular groups affected by the technologies under assessment, data were often limited or unavailable concerning the viewpoints and the scale of values of the public at large when its interests were identified as being affected For example, in the instructional television and computer-assisted instruc-

tion study, there was considerable speculation and discussion about the

causes of student dissatisfaction Since that problem is still being articu- lated and since it is difficult to obtain meaningful information about its origins and status, it is certainly hard to make judgments about the impacts that instructional television and computer-assisted instruction might have on the public at large

(3) Even though the study efforts are fragmentary, both with regard to the identification of alternative courses of action and to the identifica tion of affected parties, there appears to be adequate evidence that task forces, given sufficient time and resources, would be able to carry out these critical steps in technology assessments

(4) The classification of impacts into categories of favorable /unfavorable, likely unlikely, and controllable/uncontrollable was the principal valuation scheme used in the Task Force reports The “controllable” impacts are considered especially meaningful for the process of technol- ‘ogy assessment because these were defined as those impacts that could be modulated by governmental action, either by legislation or by regu- lation The use of this class permitted, for example, the identification of certain needs that were not obvious prior to the conduct of the study of technological teaching aids, such as the need for revised legislation on copyrights to allow the fullest development of ITV/CAI, The merit of

including a category for reversible or irreversible impacts was also

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