Xu hướng tăng trưởng kinh tế toàn cầu và tác động đối với việt nam

XU HUNG TANG THONG KINH TE TOAN CAU VA TAC BONG Del VII VIgT NAM Kinh to town cat' ding tru6c nhieu bit on Kinh t6 th6 gi6i hien i thoti ky dang dien nhung bi6n doi sau sac va manh me Tai cac trung tam kinh t6 "truyen th6ng" cua th6 gi6i (my, EU, Nhat Ban) nhieu bgt 6n n6i len phan anh cac van de ye ca cau, the ch6, nang luc canh tranh tac Ong 16n d6n tang hiking va 6n dinh kinh t6 town cau Tai cac nen kinh t6 mai n6i, m6 tlatic phat trien bat dau di ton gi6i han ye chi phi dau vao, thi twang tieu thu, cac van de m6i tru6ng, xa hOi Dau tau hay Ong luc cua nen kinh t6 town cau dang dich chuyen, tir ba tam kinh t6 "truyen th6ng", truOc hit la My, sang cac nen kinh t6 mai n6i la Trung Qu6c, an DO, Nga, Braxin (cac nuat BRIC) Sr t dich chuyen quydn luc gay nhfing tranh ch6p, xung d6t gift cac nu6c 16n NA cac nhom mr6c, phan nao can tr& cac n6 ltrc hop tdc qu6c t6, tao, suc tip dieu chinh the the kink t6 qu6c t6 Theo nhan dinh cila IMF, kinh t6 toan cau dang giai doan tang trueng manh nhat ke tir hon 30 ngm va c6 nhfing diem gi6ng vOi th6i kY cu6i nhiing narn 1960 — dau nhcing nam 1970, d6 la'tang tru6ng math va keo dai, dAn den ski r6i loan 16n veti cac bien s6 nhu su suy d6 cua "mo neo" chinh sach den to (he th6ng tS, gia c6 dinh Bretton Woods), skr noi len dm lam phat Chinh bgp benh tren thi truong tai chinh da khien cac chuyen gia to ngai v@ ski tang tniCmg bdn viing wan du Mitc dO lam phat cila nen kinh the gi6i nam 2008 yin cao nhung kha nang se thgp him nam 2007 (tril inOt s6 nen kinh chuydn d6i) Gia nang luqng, nguyen lieu, Wang thuc vin tri mtic cao va bien dOng kb:5 du doin, se c6 tac dOng tieu cixc den kinh te cua m6i qu6c gia va nhieu nguy coi khac neu khong ducic xit 1S, thich hop se fiat cac thach thtic nghiem d6i v6i tang twang Hai kich ban kha thi nhgt la: kinh te" toan cdu se gidm to"" c, hoac khemg hodng kinh to town cdu Tang twang kinh ta.thggidi 2005-2008 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Cac not phat Mb Mil=11M-1 79 my r 1-1 Khu vvc Nhal Cac Thi Trung Chau A Trung Qu6c dang Ban DOng Xj, va Euro (15 Au dang nom) Oat tridn 2005 m 2006 o 2007 o 2008 Theo IMF, nam 2008, tang trtrong cfia nen kinh t6 th6 gi6i se dat mtic 4,1%, giam 0,8% so yeti 2007 Su giam siit t6c d6 tang trtrang dien o hau hit cac khu vgc ac nen kinh t6 phat tridn ductc dkr bao tang twang 1,8%, giam 0,8%; My va Nhat Ban dix bao se chi tang trtthng 1,5%, EU la 1,6%; Cac nen kinh to mei n6i va cac ntr6c dang phat tridn se tang twang 6,9%, giam 0,9% so v6i nam 2007 Sir gia tang ciia gia ca Gia deiu me, vel cdc nguyen lieu co bdn Cu6i nam 2007, gia dau mO co ltic da cham mtic 100 USD/thang, gan gap d6i muc gia dau nam Sang d6n quy II/2008, gia dau th6 luOn thing o mttc cao, nhieu phien da xap xi 140 USD/thang Thi tniZmg dau mO town cau van rat cang thang Gia dau mO da cao, song van co the tang d6t bi6n Gia dau mO cao va bap bent' se lam giam long tin dm ngtr6i tieu dang, klm ham chi tieu cita cac h0 gia dinh, nhat la d6i vii cac nen kinh t6 co cau nOi dia y6u, tix lam giam chi tieu va tang truang Theo s6 lieu th6ng ke, cac cuOc khung hoang kinh to lin tren th6 gi6i ke tix sau chitin tranh th6gioi thti hai deu co lien quan d6n nguyen nhan gia dau lira tang cao Nizz?ng nguyen nhan co' bdn khi(n gici ddu and tiep tuc tang cao va b& dinh la: nhang han chi ves cung (mg va tril luting ddu md, chi phi khai thcic dciu and tang; Su gia tang mcznh cfia cdu ve ddu and (do kinh to the" gioi tang trutrizg kha, da:c biet la cac nen kinh to mai neii); Su trutft gia cfia dung dOla; Nhttng bat on ve dia chinh tri mot s' tren the gioi s613', TTP:, Hien c6 nhieu danh gia khac v@ gig dau Co du bao gia au se tang len 150 USD/thimg, tham chi 200 USD/thang nam 2008 IMF danh gia, gia dau mo trung bInh nam 2008 se la 75 USD/thang (nam 2007 la 68,52 USD/thang — mac gia chic chin thap him thuc chua tinh den dart tang gia au ma qui IV/2007) Song, nam nay, kinh t6toan 'du di co the hap thu six tang gia dau nhung Yin c6 it tic Ong lem va chiu han so voi nhung nam 1970, vi cac nen kinh te sir dung tackig d6i it nang lucrng han, dO tin coy caa chinh sach den to tan hon Gid nguyin ligu Gia nhieu nh6m hang h6a cc bin a tang nhanh nam 2007 va chua c6 dau hieu giim nhieu nam 2008 Tinh theo USD, ta nam 2003 an 2007, gia Ong tinh luyen tang lan, gia the") tang gap deli, gia kim loai n6i Chung tang 17,9% Gia kim loai tang manh phan anh su gia tang manh me caa can ((lac biet la qua trinh cong nghiep h6a ct Trung Qu6c cling veti nguon cung gum silt chat Kiang cua quang mot xau, alien tai, dInh cOng) Gid thuc pant Sty tang gia Wang thuc dux pham la mQt van de chinh tri or cac nuoc clang phat trien va melt s6 mac phat mi, ngii c6c, thit, sita trien Nam 2007, gia thuc ) au di tang IcST luc Theo FAO, ttr 2003-2007, gia cac sin ph& n sua tang tren 300% mdc tang manh nhat nam 2007 Tyr dfiu nam 2008 den nay, gia hang thuc phdm van tiep tuc tang cao cung khOng dap (mg di' du Ve phia cung, dieu kien th6i tier thay d6i kh6ng thuan loci — mua nhieu gay lut 10i nhieu nai tren the gi6i, trai dgt nOng len, dich benh & Ming vat dang lam cho kha nang m& rQng nguon cung hang nOng san soy chebi thu hep lai Tang gia dau vao san xugt nOng nghiep (gia dau, gia phan bon, chi phi van tai, gid cdc hang hoa ca ban cho nOng dan) ding gop phan lam tang gia nOng san Cdc trg cap va su meo m6 thi truOng lam han the sir phat tridn nOng nghiQp & nhieu nuOc Ve phia cdu, mdc sting & nhieu nuot dang phat tridn nhimg nam gan day TA ductc cai thi8n dang kd, nhgt la & nu6c d6ng dan nhgt the gi6i la Trung Qu6c va gn DO, vay nhu cau thuc phdm da tang cao Dang chili y c6 sty gia tang viec sir dung nhieu loci nOng san nhu ng6, dau tuang, lua ml va mQt s6 nOng san khac cho san xugt nhien lieu sinh hoc — mit nguon nang ltrang thay the dang dtrac nhieu Chinh phit chti Sr su tang gid dau mo Hien nay, My va EU la hai ntr6c tieu thu chinh ngu6n nang luting sinh hoc cila the giOi va hien c6 nhieu chinh sach khuyen khich san xugt nu6c va nhap khdu nang bran sinh hoc my (My &A h6 trig( cho ng6 nu6c t57 USD nam 2002; 3,1 tS, USD nam 2005; 9,5 tS, USD nam 2006) MOt s6 nu6c khac d'd tang cutting san xual va xugt khdu mat hang (chit yeu la mia throng) sang my NIA EU nhu Braxin, Malaysia, An DO Do hau het cdc nhan t6 tren vAn tdc dOng mann, nen du bdo gia Wang thuc thuc phdm vAn tiep tuc & mtic cao va c6 thd tiep tuc tang su6t nam 2008 _41MM S6 13 TT Nguy ca lam phat a mite cao Theo IMF, mac lam phat chung ten the giai nam 2008 van tiep tuc nam tam kidm soot va c6 thd thap horn mac nam 2007 tang twang kinh techam lai va cac ngan hang thuorng mai that chit tin dung Tuy nhien, mot s6 mac, six ep du lam phdt len nen kinh to van tiep tuc mash IMF du bdo nam 2008, tST le lam phdt c1 cdc nen kinh t6 phat trien se dat mile 2,1%, giam 0,1% so vii nam 2007 cdc nen kinh to thi tatting mai n6i va dang phat trien, tsf 1@ lam phdt se dat mac 5,3%, giam 0,4% so vii nam 2007 Lam phdt van tiep tuc la m6i de doa d6i vai sty 6n dinh kinh to ct chau Phi, cong d6ng cdc qu6c gia dOc lap va Trung Deng vai mire lam phit ttrong frng la 6,0%, 8,3%, va 9,2% Theo cdc nha phan tich, c6 nhing nguyen nhan sau: Thin nhdt, lam phat din ttY thi &Lang cdc hang h6a co bdn Do cau tang mph, cung han che, gia dau mo va nhieu loci nguyen lieu di a mite cao tit nam 2006 Gia thuc pham ciing vay Doc biet, tai cdc nen kinh tern& n6i va dang phdt trien, thuc pham chiem 30-40% "r6 tieu clang" tinh den chi s6 lam phit Do vay, chi phi thuc pham, nang luting anh throng lon den kk vong lam phat, dung thori tac dOng den gid cdc mat hang khac va tien Wang D6i NT& mot s6 nen kinh to mai n6i, phit trien qua 'long, gid nhap khau hang phi nhien lieu se tang tao sic ep day lam phit len cao, tir 65, anh huang chung den lam phdt town cau Thu' hai, if lam phat a my hiO'n khodng 2,3% dang Zat cho cdc nha hooch dinh chinh sitch bdi tan kh6 gidi gift(' tri tac dO tang truang on dinh va -D ••• kiim the lam phat De giai quy& van de killing hoang nha dat va suy thoai kinh te, My c6 the se n6i king manh horn chinh sach tien te, tai khoa, chap nhan lam phat cao hon Khi do, se co nhieu tac dOng 16n den tinh hinh lam phat toan cau Ngoai ra, stic ep lam phat van co the tang chiu anh huang cua cac nhan t6 nhu: rui ro dia chinh tri, khimg b6, su that bai cua cac ntr6c xir ly cac van de tai chinh trung han nen da ap dung bien phat lam phat de giam nor phai tra tuang lai Rui ro lam phat khac tay theo nu6c va khu vuc, song nhieu nu& se co the ap dung chinh sach tien te, tai chinh that chat han, nhung nhu vay se kiem the tang truemg kinh Trien vong kinh te the giai tay thuOc nhieu vao nhitng btr6c tien viec giai quy& cac van de toan cau hien Ngoai cac van de nang luting, nguyen lieu, lam phat da neu tren, cac van de 16n sau: MOt so' mkt can bang kinh te vd tai chinh IMP tuc ton tai nen kinh te" torin cau dO tham but lan cac can can tai khoan yang lai cua My hien len toi 6,5% GDP \TA chua co giai phap hftu hieu a can bang D6 la mot nguy ca lon d6i voi kinh te the gi6i Nhap sieu thuang mai, tS7 le Viet kiem thap, tham but ngan sach van la nhUng dac diem 16n cua kinh My hien Cac ntrac xugt khu dau mO (do su tAng gia dau mO), Trung Qu6c (do xugt sieu cang 16n vao thi truong My) dang troy d6i tac cang lon tao nen cac tham but can can toan cita My Dieu dang lam phitc tap horn cac giii phap xix mat can bang can can wan qu6c TInh hInh clang lam cho giai dau tu lo ngai s6 phan cua dung &la Nett cac nha dau tu nu6c ngoai chuyen huang, dong d6la se styt gia v6i t6c dO Ich6 Iciem soat, t6 se anh huang xgu den kinh te My va nhieu nu& kW Ti trim cda dam phan thuang mai da phuang (vong dam phan Daha) thoi gian tai win la mOt Tu h6a thuang mai da phuang la dieu c6t yeu de nang cao then vong tang ft-yang Wan cau ben Yung, song hien nay, nhieu nu6c clang huang nhieu vio cac Hiep Binh thuang mai song phuang (BTA) nhu la phuang den thtic day to hoa thuang mai Xu huang bao hO co the bung phat manh han nht-mg nAm tai, 'that la neu c6 su gia tang nhirng mat can d6i town cau va canh tranh tir tnr6ng mai n6i, nhat la Trung Qu6c, cac nen kinh an DO Ben canh d6 kinh to My co the suy thodi, cho de mtkc dO khOng lan nhung cling se gay nhang tac dOng tieu cuc den nen kinh to the giai Tr4t tu' kinh the" giffi del va dang ca nhang that' ddi low nhieu Ark nhan De la su lan manh dm EU, su n6i len cua Trung Qu6c, An DO, six Myth cac kh6i khu yuc lan nhu bong a, EU clang la thtyc the kinh to c6 quy D6ng Euro cans canh tranh m6 twang dtrang han Arai dang dOla, lam cho th6ng den th the giai c6 the bi lung lay Trung Qu6c clang tray mot sieu cu6ng co the se gay di° lOn trat tu kinh tequ6c Nhung di8n bien neu khOng dugc xir ly t6t se finh htiang lan den kinh te town cau Kinh t6 my suy thoii va nhUng tic Ong Kinh to My nam 2007 sau horn mot thap kS, tang truang manh da clutng kien cu6c suy thodi cua thi throng bat Ong san va di lien v6i no la cuQc khimg hoang tin dung nghiem nhgt 16 nam qua Hai trieu ng6i nha duac mua tir ngu6n v6n vay the chgp de dai (ducfc goi la du6i tieu chum) da hoac se co the bi tich bien nguoi vay khOng CO kha nang tra nor Cac ngan hang va cac t6 chile tin dung nam giir cac khoan cho vay the chap va chUng khoin co nguon g6c cho vay the chap Mu bi tin that vao khoang 400 tS, USD Neu cac ngan hang co mu6n tri m)t tSr le an wan 10% tren v6n thi khoan gin thgt 400 tS, USD tuang duang vai viec cac cac ngan hang buOc phai cat giam mtic cho vay khoang nghin tST USD — MOt sir khan hiem tin dung den mtic co the dem den nhieu hp qua cho nen kinh te Suy thodi cua thi trueng bgt dOng sin va khimg hoing tin dung My CO tic dOng Urn ham tang truang kinh te My tit nam 2007 th6ng qua hoat dOng kinh to khu vuc xay dung nha & va cac nganh lien quan cham lai, viec lam tang cham, thu nhap va sic mua cUa mot b6 phan lon dan cu giam cac dieu kien tin dung bi that chat, thieu nguon tin dung cho kinh doanh, long tin cila ngu6i tieu dung va gioi kinh doanh bi anh huang tieu cuc De h6 tra kha nang chi tra cho cac ngan hang thuang mai, thing 8/2007, Cue Dar ter Lien bang My (FED) da barn them tSr USD vao ho thing tin dung thong qua cac nghiep vu thi tru6ng ma Da CO mot th6a thuan gitta NHTW 16.n tren the giai (g6m FED, ECB va cac NHTW Anh, Canada, Thuy Sy) nham gitip cac ngan hang thuang mai wort qua khimg hoang, co viec thing nhat lap mQt guy ch6ng khang hoang chung Thing 9/2007, lan dau tien k tdr gifta nam 2006, FED dot 0,5% lai suit, tir mtic 5,25% xu6ng mtic 4,75% Tidp do, ddn cu6i thing 12/2007 (tirc vong han ba thing), FED TA ba lin cat giam lai suit, dua tS, le xu6ng 4,25% Nam 2008, kinh d my bac 10 r6 han chieu hu6ng di xu6ng Theo du bao cila IMF, tang twang GDP dm my nam 2008 chi IA 1,2%, thap han nuic du bao 1,9% vao thing 1/2008, thap han 2,2% nam 2007 va nuic 2,9% cila nam 2006 Nham ngan chin suy thodi kinh td, FED dot tidp tuc cat giam lai suit (24/1 va 31/1), dua mttc lai suit xu6ng 3% Gan day (13/2/2008), T6ng thing my G.Bush dot ky dua vao thuc hien kdhoach kich thich kinh t@ ca goi tri gia khoang 168 tS, USD, 152 tS, se duac thuc hien nam 2008 Kd hoach bao gom viec hoan thud cho ngutri clan, h6 trot nguiri co thu nhap thap va khuydn khich cac doanh nghiep dau tu Gitra thing 2/2008, von sir hau thuAn cila BO TAi chinh va BO Phat tridn nha or My, ngan hang 16n or My ming di cOng b6 kd hoach hap stic ciru thi throng bat dOng sin Nhik ng quan diem trai chieu Co nhieu danh gia khac v@ viec lieu kinh td My co lam vao suy thodi (tang trui:'(ng am hai quY lien Mc) nam 2008 hay khOng? Theo Chit tich FED, kinh td My dang cang xau di, nhtmg it co kha nang rai vao suy thodi Tim& do, cuu Chit tich FED Alan Greenspan dot danh gia kha nang kinh td My rai vao suy thodi nam 2008 50% VLD MOt s6 phan tich cho fang, suy giam kinh te My TA c6 dau hieu cham dirt thi truong chung khoan chau Au, my da bat dau on dinh, cac bien phap h8 tra da bat dau c6 hieu luc Ho hi vong kinh te,My se hoi phuc vao cu6i nam 2008 Thy nhien, lai c6 six phan bac quan di6m nay, vi ho cho rang d6 la chuyen ao tuang v6i nhiing dan chung: cac c6 phi& cua nhi6u ngan hang uy tin clia My va chau Au van dang mat gia, hang lost nhan vien dang bi sa thai, gia nha van giam, that nghi8p gia tang amg CO mot s6 y kien khac cho rang, kinh te My co th6 da bu6c vao suy thoai, hay Chdc chan se suy thodi, voi nuic dO tir nhe nhang den tram Nha kinh te Nouriel Roubini (DH T6ng hcrp New York) cho hay, tinh the hien co nhi6u di6m gi6ng v6i th6i ky Hai suy thodi 1929 -1933, nhat la tren phuang din cac ro he thong va cac r6i loan tai chinh" Su suy giam kinh te My c6 th6 keo dai vai ba nam Su dung thu(in cac quan diem Muc suy giam kinh ten), khOng 16n, nhang nganh cong nghiep cho bien, cong nghe cao va dich vu it bi anh huOng, van tang twang duang nam 2008, nam 2009 D6 la nhan dinh chung caa cac chuyen gia kinh to the gi6i suy giam kinh te My co tac dOng tieu clic den kinh te the gioi, nhung khOng den mix nghiem vi kinh te the gioicon co cac dOng luc tang true:mg khac nhu Trung Qu6c, An DO, Nga bit lai Six Ned no va cling la nhan t6 chinh hien clan den S6 13 TTP sty suy giam nen kinh to MST' lad sir suy thodi cua thi trding bat dOng san va cuOc khimg hoeing tin dung the chap du ii chudn Song nhan t6 chua duqc nhan dien rO Hien chua có danh gia chinh xac miic d0 suy giam tiem tang cua khu vtyc nha & my ding nhu cau trtic tac Ong lan t•5a va cac mat mat thuc sty cila tin dung nha dat du& chuan or MY Theo cac chuyen gia, gia nha dat tren thi trutmg My kho tranh duck viec tip tuc giam gia cho den nao phan arth gia tri thuc cua no Horn nita, theo nghien cuu cila OECD, lchoang 890 tS, USD tri gia cac khoin the chap dtroi tieu chudn se den han vao nem 2008 N6u tST 1e vd iv la 14%, cac ngan hang se thiet hai lchoang 125 t'S/ USD Ngay 23/11/2007, B6 truang Tai chinh My H.Paulson canh bao cuOc khung hoang cho vay the chap My se toi t@ hen nem 2008 Theo IMF, tac dOng cua tinh tang "tic tin dung" va suy thodi thi truZing nha & My nem khoang gifta vUa phai va gay gat Tuy nhien, ca sty suy thodi cua thi truOng bat dQng san va cu6c khang hoing tin dung the chap du& chucin cila My h.& nen tram horn, thi kinh te MS-7 co •suy thodi hay khOng, tram rmic dO nao phu thu6c vac mot nhan t6 quan khac, d6 cac phan (mg chinh sach cua Chinh guy& My Cho den nay, d6 xix 1S, khimg hoang, Chinh quyen My mei chi tap trung vao bien phap tai chink va tien to ma chua chti y nhieu den cac bien phap cai cach car cau Trong do, d6i voi cac cuQc khimg hoang thuQc dang khung hoang can can tai san nhu the nay, kinh nghiem the giai hien dai (Nhat Ban, Han Qu6c) cho they, cac bien phap tai chinh va tier' "te vita t6n kern irUa it hieu qua 111111110111ML Gidi phap citu von tinh the Xet tinh the hien nay, nuoc My" van nhieu cong cu de d6i CO the tiep tuc lai suat, bo'm them tien cho cac ngan hang, giam thueva den hanh cac hanh dOng manh me hon Ca ye ngan han va dai han, m6i Iva chon deu CO hai mat tich ctrc va mat trai TrOng trtrong hop kinh to My suy thodi, CO nhieu kha nang Chinh quyen My se co nhiing hanh dOng hen quy& va manh me han nham gitip kinh te My nhanh chong phuc hoi Cling khOng the loai trtr kha nang kinh te My rai vao suy thodi tram trong, nhat la bong narn 2008, cho du kha nang có xac suat thgp Tac dOng caa suy thodi kinh te my den kinh the gioi Dting la kinh to the gi6i hien "khang • cir" tot han tnr6c nhimg bien dOng dm nen kinh to My, song tac dOng cua suy thodi kinh to My den kinh te town cau van 16n quy m6 va sirc anh htrOng 16n cua kinh to My nen kinh te the gi6i ciing nhu miic dO lan tha nhanh nhay cira cac kenh tai chinh, tien te, thvong mai, dau to town cau Tac dOng se cang 16n neu suy thoai kinh te My cang tram CuOc khimg hoang tin dung tai my co anh hiking den gia tri tai san cua nhieu ngan hang va cong ty tai chinh tren the gi6i, dr lam giam nang luc cho vay cua ho KhOng loai trir phuang an My tiep tuc de cho dOng d6la My truck d6c, dieu có loci cho xual khdu My, song lai gay khO khan cho nhieu nen kinh te khac my van la mot thi trueing nhap khdu 16n nhSt the giOi Cho S4513, TT nen, su co lai cda thi twang se anh huang khOng nhO den kinh toan cau Citigroup iretc tinh rang, neu GDP cda My giam 1% thi GDP cila Trung Qu6c se bi giam 1,3% (do xugt khau giam) Dur bao tang truong town cau Tai nhieu nen kinh tephat tridn c6 nang luc d6i vai cac rui ro kha cao, can can tai san va tinh hinh v6n cua cac thiet the tai chinh chu ch6t kha viIng yang, loci nhugn cao va mtic na not chung thgp, thi truting lao dOng va tinh hinh tai san oh cac h0 gia dish lanh manh VI vay, mire dO bi anh hithng ttlt suy gam kinh my se it han cac khu vuc khac nhay cam han Vi du, tang truong cda EU va Nhgt Ban hien TA dtra nhieu han vao cau nii cc Tang truong toan cau hien then kha d6ng deu han, dgc biet la tinh nang dOng cao cua cac nen kinh to mai n6i da c6 dung g6p quan cho tang twang toan cau Tai cac nuffic nay, cau nude tang manh se la mot dOng luc chinh cho tang tnthng kinh toan cau, can can tai san manh han, cac khu6n kh6 chinh sach tao dieu kien cho nhieu nu6c giam phu thuOc vao cau ben ngoai Tai cac nu& dang phat tridn nhu Trung Qu6c, an DO, cling cuQc cai each kinh duac den hanh thoci gian qua dang giiip nen kinh trat nen nang dOng han, khang cu t6t han truck cac cd s6c tic ben ngoai Tang truong kinh to toan cau narn 2008 se chil yeu duac thdc day b6i cac nen kinh t@ mai n6i nhu Trung Qu6c va fin DO han la bai cac nen kinh te my, EU, Nhgt Ban Theo IMF, cac nen kinh to mai n6i va cac nuac dang 398 LO phat tri6n van tang twang manh nam 2008, dat 6,9% (chi giam 0,9% so v6i lilac 7,8% nam 2007) T6c d0 tang twang kinh t6 se suy giam 6( hau h6t cac khu vuc tren th6 gi6i, tit Trung va DOng Au cho toi cac mac chau A, Trung DEng va my Latinh chau A, Trung Qu6c va an DO se tip tuc tri dirge mirc tang truOng cao (10% va 8,4%) Trung Qu6c van la imOt hi6n tovng clang chti y V6i t6c dO tang truong 10% Trung Qu6c se tao tong san lucing 3,94 ngan ti USD nam 2008 Nhu vay, xet ye GDP danh nghia, Trung Qu6c da On bat kip Nhat Ban (4,96 ngan ti USD), vugt Dtic (3,43 ngan ti) va Anh (2,84 ngan ti) Nhung n6u tinh theo suc mua tuong &rung (PPP), GDP ciia Trung Qu6c se la 12,9 ngan ti USD, gan gap ba Ian Nhat Ban (4,48 ngan ti USD) va gan bang GDP cua M5'r (14,4 ngan ti USD) Thuung mai va dau tu qu6c t6 se ti6p tuc dung g6p quan d6i v6i tang tru&ng, than' chi tang twang manh, bat chap nhilng b6 tac hi6n dam phan da phuong Co ducic dieu tru6c hit la nhi-mg dieu chinh chinh sach cua cac mr6c, cling nhu cac n6 luc vi6c 14k6t cac hi6p dinh thumg mai tu khu vuc hoac song phuang Tfic dOng d6i veri Vi4 Nam This nhat, ttic dO king trwdng kinh to Viet Nam khd có the trip tuc tang &wag cao, tang traimg kinh to thi gioi bi chlim MI:TC tang twang GDP ciia cac nen kinh t6 nOi chung duorc du bao se giam khoang 1% nam 2008 so yeti nam 2007, nam 2009 c6 th6 se cao horn nam saga TTPV 2008 cluit it Do vay, viec Viet Nam dieu chinh gam t6c d0 tang GDP nam 2008 xu6ng 7-7,5% la phi' hop Thir hai, su suy gidm kinh to My se a dnh hufmg trur tiep toi throng mai cia Viet Nam, my ld thi ldn am Viet Nam &tang xutit Tuy six anh hitang cung c6 mirc dO, vi hang Viet Nam not chung thu6c nhung hang thiet yeu cho nen nuic giam khOng lin nhung tic dOng cila no la rat dang quan ngai vi viec gam xugt khdu van thi trutang My dien ding hic vai viec giam xugt khau tren cdc thi truong khac Tar do, keo theo su gia tang kh6c liet canh tranh ca tren san My, san nha va not chung tren tit ca cac thi trutang Trong b6i earth do, kha nang gia tang nhap sieu nam 2008 ciia Viet Nam cao han nam 2007 la dieu co the du bao kha chk char' se xay • Thu* ba, deiu to mac ngodi vdo Viet Nam cd the van gia tang ki cd ddu tr trur tiep vd gian tiep Su suy giam kinh to my chil yeu dien ruth vuc bgt dOng san va cho vay the chgp, lay Ian sang he thong tin dung va ngan hang Mang nganh cling nghip the bien va cong nghe cao dang it bi tic Ong Khi thi trteing bat dOng sin My, chau Au, Nhat Ban trl tre, thi nhfmg tap doan kinh doanh bgt dOng sin, di theo no la nhung dons von to 16n se tun kiem nai dau to mai an toan han, c45 lgii hon Day chinh la mot thai ca cho Viet Nam S6 von FDI vao bat dOng san thing dau nam 2008 chiem ty tren 50% t6ng FDI vao Viet Nam da the hien re xu the Thi truing tai chinh va cluing khoan the gioi bien dOng bap benh M0t mat, se co mot s6 anh huang tieu cuc t6i thi trtrOng tai chinh Viet Nam, nhung mat khac, neu thi truong tai chinh, Chung khoan Viet Nam 6n dinh phat tridn hieu qua, thi day cling la mot thou c6 thu htit cac ngu6n v6n gian tiep vao Viet Nam Cac cOng ty thu0c nganh cOng nghiep the bien va cOng nghe cao It bi tic d6ng b&i suy thodi kinh to my, vay tiep tuc dau to vao Viet Nam Cac c6ng ty kinh doanh dich vu, dac Net la du lich cling theo xu huOng Van de dot la, hien Viet Nam chua co mot chinh sach, giai phap plat h6p du a ting vii nhiing tic d6ng cua cu0c suy giam kinh to My va tan dung nhung thoi c6 co the co Thir tu, khang hodng luong thuc gang có tic &Ong hai mat dol voi Vift Nam V oi to cach ld nu& mat khciu gao lan thin the" giai, gia 0o tang cao se co 16i cho Viet Nam Nhung dieu ding luu la sir phan chia 16i ich nhu the nao, duong nhu each phan chia hien da kh6ng mang lai 16i ich Bang ke gi cho nguoi nOng dan salt xuat lila gao, ma cac tang 16p trung gian da htreing cac 16i ich Ben canh dO, vii tit cach let nguefi tieu thing ggo thi nhang anh htthng tieu cuc cua viec tang gia gao la khOng nho, dac biet d6i vii ngtrOi ngheo Da Viet Nam la nu6c xuat khdu gao thi gia gao cling vinphai la gia thi throng va tuang ling v6i gia thi truOng tren the gioi Neu gia gao the gib i tang cao, gia gao Viet Nam kh6ng the thap Dolt tang gia gao d0t bien vita qua khong chi dau cc ma gia gao the gi6i da tang dOt bien nhfing thing dau nom 2008 s6 TT „ Da Viet Nam CO thira gao, xuat khdu hang nam 4-5 trieu tan, thl nhimg lqi ich xuat khdu gao mang lai gia tang cho mot nhom ngtred da khang bu dtrqc nhang thiet hai cho mot dat nub c tieu dung gao nhu Viet Nam Chinh phi' chi nham ch6ng dau coy Chinh sach la ldt6ng can co mQt chinh sach img v6i Ichung hoang Wang thuc th6 gib i toan dien hone, khOng chi troy cap cho ngtroi ngheo, ma phai gia tang cho dau to phat tridn nong nghiep va nOng th6n Thu ndm, gia ddu md gia tang cling dang gdy nhiing tac dting phtir tap V oi tit ccich la nuot xuat khdu ddu md, Viet Nam dang dtrqc lqi nhO gia dau mO tang, song trit ltrqng dau ma Viet Nam kh6ng nhieu co the' ki6m lqi16n„ Nhung voz to cdch la nuor tieu dung 'Ong ddu ngay.cang tang thl viec gia dau ma tang da gay nhieu tac hai, lam tang chi phi dau vao caa tat ca cac nganh san xugt kinh doanh, lam tang gia sinh host moi mat, m6t y6u t6 thtic ddy lam phat Nhung tac hai doanh nghiep va dan thing deu phai htIng chiu ca Lieu co the' lay cai lei ma Nha mr6c thu &Plc gia dau mo tang bU cho ithimg thiet hai cfia dan, doanh nghiep va bit bang cach nao CO the khang dinh khOng the bang bao cap va n6u co cling chi la giai phap tam thoi, tinh th6 Chinh phi' nen tinh tai cac giai phap Ichac, chang han giam thu6 cho ca dan va doanh nghiep Kinh t6 th6 gib i na.m 2008 van dang tiep tuc c6 nhting bin d6i nhanh, tao cac ca 110i va thach fink m6i Trong b6i canh do, tang twang va phat tridn cac 396D qu6c gia ti y thuQc chit y6u vao cac n6 bx cai cach va dieu chinh linh host chinh sach ben caa m6i mr6c Viet Nam hoan toan c6 the ton dung &rot cac ca \vat qua moi thach tink de ddy nhanh t6c dO phat tridn n6u nh4ri din dling nhang thay d6i cua b6i canh qu6c t6, ddy mph hurl rata cai cach kinh t6, chu dOng va tich cuc hQi nh4p kinh t6 qu6c t6./ Nguygn Mai Huygn ... du bao se giam khoang 1% nam 2008 so yeti nam 2007, nam 2009 c6 th6 se cao horn nam saga TTPV 2008 cluit it Do vay, viec Viet Nam dieu chinh gam t6c d0 tang GDP nam 2008 xu6 ng 7-7,5% la phi' hop... twang duang nam 2008, nam 2009 D6 la nhan dinh chung caa cac chuyen gia kinh to the gi6i suy giam kinh te My co tac dOng tieu clic den kinh te the gioi, nhung khOng den mix nghiem vi kinh te the... caa suy thodi kinh te my den kinh the gioi Dting la kinh to the gi6i hien "khang • cir" tot han tnr6c nhimg bien dOng dm nen kinh to My, song tac dOng cua suy thodi kinh to My den kinh te town