HUMAN RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT REVIEW 2003 EDUCATION, EMPLOYMENT AND SKILLS IN SOUTH AFRICA HUMAN SCIENCES RESEARCH COUNCIL Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za ii HRD REVIEW l 2003 © 2003 Human Sciences Research Council Compiled by the Research Programme on Human Resources Development, Human Sciences Research Council General Editors: Andre Kraak and Helene Perold Published by HSRC Press Private Bag X9182, Cape Town, 8000, South Africa www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za Published in the United States of America by Michigan State University Press East Lansing, Michigan 48823-5202 Distributed in Africa by Blue Weaver Marketing and Distribution, PO Box 30370, Tokai, Cape Town, 7966, South Africa. Tel: +27 +21-701-4477 Fax: +27 +21-701-7302 e-mail: booksales@hsrc.ac.za First published 2003 All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers. ISBN 0-7969-2049-4 Cover and text design and layout by Manik Design, Johannesburg, South Africa manikn@mweb.co.za Print management by comPress, Cape Town, South Africa www.compress.co.za Printed by Paarl Print Printed in the Republic of South Africa Recommended citation: Human Sciences Research Council (2003) Human Resources Development Review 2003: Education, Employment and Skills in South Africa, Cape Town: HSRC Press and East Lansing: Michigan State University Press Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za iii 2003 l HRD REVIEW CONTENTS Preface v Acknowledgements ix Glossary xi List of tables and figures xiv Acronyms and abbreviations xxix INTRODUCTION Chapter 1 HRD and Joined-Up Policy 2 Andre Kraak SECTION ONE CONTEXT 2 Overview of the South African Economy 32 Anna McCord 3 Overview of Industrial Policy 64 Miriam Altman and Marina Mayer 4 The Skills Requirements of Specific Economic Sectors 86 Pundy Pillay 5 Employment and Labour Market Trends 112 Anna McCord and Haroon Bhorat 6 The Informal Economy 142 Richard Devey, Caroline Skinner and Imraan Valodia 7 The Social and Human Development Context 164 Debbie Budlender 8 The Impact of HIV/AIDS 186 Jocelyn Vass 9 Science Policy Indicators 208 Nelius Boshoff and Johann Mouton 10 Skills Migration 234 Tracy Bailey 11 International Benchmarks 256 Debbie Budlender Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za iv HRD REVIEW l 2003 SECTION TWO SUPPLY 12 Public Expenditure on Education 280 Russell Wildeman 13 Public Schooling 302 Helen Perry and Fabian Arends 14 Public Further Education and Training Colleges 326 Glen Fisher, Ros Jaff, Lesley Powell and Graham Hall 15 Public Higher Education 352 George Subotzky 16 Independent Schooling 380 Jacques L du Toit 17 Private Further Education and Training 396 Salim Akoojee 18 Private Higher Education and Training 416 George Subotzky 19 Enterprise Training 432 Azeem Badroodien SECTION THREE SCARCE SKILLS 20 Forecasting the Demand for Scarce Skills, 2001-2006 458 Ingrid Woolard, Philip Kneebone and Deborah Lee 21 Educators 476 Luis Crouch and Helen Perry 22 Academics 500 Charlton Koen 23 Medical Practitioners and Nurses 522 Elsje Hall and Johan Erasmus 24 Engineers and Technicians 554 Grové Steyn and Reza C Daniels 25 Biotechnologists 584 David R Walwyn 26 Managers 610 Frank M Horwitz and Angus Bowmaker-Falconer 27 ICT and Associated Professionals 634 Percy Moleke, Andrew Paterson and Joan Roodt 28 HRD and the Skills Crisis 660 Andre Kraak Index 688 Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za v 2003 l HRD REVIEW PREFACE This Review is the outcome of a flagship project of the Research Programme on Human Resources Development (HRD) at the Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC), and was funded by the Department of Science and Technology (DST). The programmes core focus is to analyse the pathways of learners from the schooling system into further and higher education and the world of work. More specifically, the programme: l conducts research on the supply side that examines the provision of public and private post- school education and training, particularly in the further and higher education bands; l conducts research on the demand side that examines the characteristics of those skills that are in demand, those in short supply, and those that will be needed in the future; l conducts research on the states new science and industrial policies and what the implications of new knowledge and innovation requirements will be for the education and training system; and l conducts theoretical research aimed at developing an appropriate conceptual framework for analysing human resources. The research programme on HRD The Research Programme on HRD was established in May 2001 as a result of two external developments. Firstly, in October 2000, Cabinet mandated the HSRC to undertake research for government in the field of HRD. Government also appointed the HSRC to a joint Education and Labour Task Team commissioned to draw up an HRD Strategy for the country. The policy document, entitled An HRD Strategy for South Africa: A Nation at Work for a Better Life for All, was publicly launched in April 2001. The HSRC Research Programme on HRD seeks to support this strategy through the provision of strategic research and the dissemination of information. The second development occurred in December 2000. The Department of Science and Technology awarded the HSRC a significant three-year research grant, ring-fenced specifically for HRD-related research work. The flagship project This project has three components. The first concerns the development of a comprehensive web- based, cross-sectoral data warehouse. This infrastructure is oriented largely towards the provision of improved information and analysis to support government decision-making in the arena of HRD (see http://hrdwarehouse.hsrc.ac.za). The second is a biennial human resources development review that provides comprehensive analyses of key education and training, labour-market and macro-economic indicators. Thirdly, the project produces an interpretive overview (in the format of a monograph) of the key trends in HRD in the post-apartheid period (see Kraak 2004). 1 This Review is the first in a series of biennial human resources development overviews to be published by the HSRC. Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za vi PREFACE HRD REVIEW l 2003 Conception of HRD The key thesis underlying the project is that HRD is a cross-sectoral policy issue that is shaped by, and impacts on, a multitude of government policy domains such as education and training, the labour market, and macroeconomic, industrial and foreign trade policies. When combined or joined up in an interlocking and self-reinforcing way, the basket of government policies yields the appropriate human and technological capability necessary for future national economic success. Human resources development is thus the glue that helps to develop and sustain successful economic systems. This approach is underpinned by the necessity for education reforms to interlock and join up with macroeconomic, industrial and labour market reforms so that their combined impact has a better chance of meeting the new conditions for global competitiveness the attainment of high-quality manufacture through a highly skilled and highly productive workforce. This view of HRD policy and planning sees educational reform as constituting one component of a necessarily larger set of socio- economic reforms. It posits the view that the attainment of successful reform in one institutional sphere (such as education) is conditional on parallel changes occurring in other institutional spheres (for example, in the macroeconomic, labour market and work organisation environments). Effective HRD planning, particularly the co-ordination of all its cross-sectoral dynamics, is a key condition for economic success. This central proposition is asserted throughout the Review and is supported by four key assumptions: l The increased primacy of education and training: One of the central implications of globalisation is the increased importance of education and training, particularly given the demands for higher levels of multi-functional skill competencies distributed across the entire workforce. Improved education and training is a critical pre-requisite for successful participation in the rapidly globalising knowledge economy. l The success of co-ordinated market economies: There is now sufficient evidence in the international literature that, contrary to neo-liberal economic orthodoxy, co-ordinated market economies (in which the state plays a critical role in regulating economic development) are more successful in the age of globalisation than free market economies. Effective human resources development policies are a key requirement of co-ordinated market economies. This is because a countrys full HRD requirements are rarely met by the market alone, but rather through a combination of market forces and deliberate planning and co-ordination by the state over the medium to long term. l The importance of cross-sectoral policy co-ordination: Co-ordinated market economies are premised on the development and implementation of cross-sectoral rather than mono-sectoral policy instruments. Human resources development policies are intrinsically cross-sectoral. l The importance of data and information for HRD planning: The requirement of cross-sectoral joined-up policy co-ordination and implementation makes extremely challenging and resource- intensive demands on government. A key condition for its success is the availability of comprehensive management information systems across a wide array of socio-economic issues. These enable government-planners to respond timeously to complex and often dramatic social changes. For example, substantive shifts are likely to occur in the structure of the economy and its sectoral characteristics over the next five to ten years. New growth areas will be triggered by greater export activity, growth in small, medium and micro enterprises (SMMEs) of both the technological and survivalist kinds, spatial development initiatives, and economic sectoral Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za vii PREFACE 2003 l HRD REVIEW clustering. Employment patterns will shift away from declining sectors towards these new growth points. The occupational structure will change as new skill requirements arise at both the high- and low-skill ends of the spectrum. Enormous pressure will be exerted on further and higher education institutions during this period to respond to these new skill demands. Planners in government will need to measure the cross-sectoral impact of all these shifts. It is here that the development of a cross-sectoral management information system will be of greatest value a multifaceted data warehouse that combines information on both the demand and supply sides in order to highlight and measure the extent to which governments industrial and employment objectives have been met. Such a multifaceted data warehouse will also indicate whether equivalent changes have occurred on the supply side that is, whether education and training institutions have responded to changes in the economy and labour market. It is the governments role to co-ordinate the key interlocking cross-sectoral policies and plan a national HRD strategy. However, government does not possess the necessary management information capability to develop and carry out this planning and co-ordination on its own. The aim of the HSRCs biennial HRD review and data warehouse project, then, is to assist government in acquiring these critical HRD policy requirements. Through this Review and the Data Warehouse, the innovative contribution of the HSRC and its research partners thus resides in: l developing a multi-faceted, cross-sectoral data warehouse which provides easy access to a comprehensive set of data on the demand and supply sides of the HRD equation; l combining databases that are currently maintained separately specifically those describing education and training, and labour-market and employment conditions; l conducting new qualitative and theoretical research that interrogates the quantitative data, yielding a richer reading of HRD conditions at the macro, meso and micro levels; l doing secondary analyses of accumulated cross-sectoral data. These interpretative analyses take the traditional academic format of chapters in biennial HRD reviews and other academic papers made available in the Data Warehouse; l disseminating HRD information in simple, easy-to-use formats through easy and free access to the Data Warehouse website, and through the biennial production and dissemination of the HRD reviews. There is no duplication between the production of existing government databases and the work of the HSRC. The role of the HSRC and its research partners is to add value to these data sources by improving linkages and comparisons across government databases and transforming this information into analytical, strategic and predictive analyses. In so doing, the aim is to support better HRD planning in South Africa in the medium to long term. An evidence-led overview The HSRCs HRD Review 2003 and Data Warehouse is primarily an evidence-led quantitative project aimed at filling the information gap that has plagued government HRD planning since 1994. Because of the difficulties associated with working with provisional data sets that have not yet been through the necessary scientific validation and comprehensive quality control processes, the HRD Review 2003 only uses data that have been extensively tested. The consequence of this decision, however, Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za viii PREFACE HRD REVIEW l 2003 is that the Review can only work with older data. The cut-off point for the HRD Review 2003 is largely December 2000, although certain chapters are able to draw on data from 2001 and 2002. Future HRD reviews will be similarly constrained. In conclusion, then, the project is a comprehensive attempt to describe and measure the complex, inter-related social conditions that characterise South Africa. The book and the Data Warehouse, through the evidence they present, also identify certain critical joined-up policy requirements that are essential for the future success of governments HRD Strategy. Andre Kraak and Helene Perold General Editors Note 1 Kraak, A (2004) An Overview of South African Human Resources Development: The Importance of Joined-Up Policy Co-ordination and Implementation, Human Sciences Research Council, Cape Town: HSRC Press Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za ix 2003 l HRD REVIEW ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authorship of this Review is institutional and therefore collective, and requires the acknowledgement of the people who spent many weeks and months working on this project. The Department of Science and Technology At the outset we pay tribute to the Department of Science and Technology, whose generous ring- fenced grant for the period 2001 to 2003 has enabled us to produce a comprehensive and high- quality product. The project team We would like to acknowledge and thank our highly capable project team who made the Human Resources Development Review 2003 and Data Warehouse website a reality: They are: l General Editors: Andre Kraak and Helene Perold l Project Managers of the Human Resources Development Review 2003: Leslie Powell, Ansie Lombaard and Lindi Basson l Project Manager of the Data Warehouse: Andrew Paterson l The Data Warehouse technical development team: Robin Naude, Arjen van Zwieten and Helen Perry Supporting the project team were the following people, to whom thanks are due for their important contributions to the project: Kathleen Bartels (copy-editor); Martie Boesenberg (technical proofreader); Michael Cosser, Glenda Kruss, Moeketsi Letseka, Simon McGrath and Andrew Paterson (proofreaders); Jeanne Cope (indexer); Sue Munro (web pages); Gerald OSullivan (IT support); Lucia Lotter (search facility); Debbie Teixeira and Nicky Clark of Manik Design (design and layout); Hans Ros (server administration); Richard Rufus-Ellis (external proofreader); Monica Seeber and Kyle McCloughlin (permissions); Marise Swardt (picture research). Authors We thank the following authors who contributed their research and analyses from their positions outside the HSRC and those within: Salim Akoojee, Miriam Altman, Fabian Arends, Azeem Badroodien, Tracy Bailey, Haroon Bhorat, Nelius Boshoff, Angus Bowmaker-Falconer, Debbie Budlender, Luis Crouch, Reza C Daniels, Richard Devey, Jacques L du Toit, Johan Erasmus, Glen Fisher, Elsje Hall, Graham Hall, Frank M Horwitz, Ros Jaff, Philip Kneebone, Charlton Koen, Andre Kraak, Deborah Lee, Marina Mayer, Anna McCord, Percy Moleke, Johann Mouton, Andrew Paterson, Helen Perry, Pundy Pillay, Lesley Powell, Joan Roodt, Caroline Skinner, Grové Steyn, George Subotzky, Imraan Valodia, Jocelyn Vass, David R Walwyn, Russell Wildeman and Ingrid Woolard. Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS HRD REVIEW l 2003 Reviewers The following senior academics and government policy experts are thanked for undertaking the demanding peer review of 28 chapters in a very short space of time: External reviewers l David Ashton, Professor of Sociology and Director of the Centre for Labour Market Studies, Leicester University l Haroon Bhorat, Director of the Development Policy Research Unit (DPRU) based at the School of Economics, University of Cape Town l Adrienne Bird, Deputy Director-General, Department of Labour l Ian Bunting, Director of Planning, Higher Education branch of the national Department of Education l Trevor Coombe, formerly Deputy Director-General, Department of Education, Pretoria, and currently an education consultant l Adeline du Toit, Professor and Head of Department of Information Studies, Rand Afrikaans University l Hugh Lauder, Professor of Education, Bath University l Ian Macun, Director, Skills Development Planning Unit, Department of Labour l Enver Motala, formerly Deputy Director-General, Department of Education, Gauteng Province, and currently an education consultant l Joe Muller, Professor of Education, University of Cape Town l Helen Perry, independent contractor specialising in education management information systems (EMIS) and education planning l Pundy Pillay, Senior Research Economist for the Research Triangle Institute (SA) l Chris Rensleigh, Lecturer, Department of Information Studies, Rand Afrikaans University l Charles Simkins, Professor of Economics, University of the Witwatersrand l Eddie Webster, Professor of Industrial Sociology, University of the Witwatersrand l Michael Young, Professor of Education, Institute of Education, University of London Internal reviewers l Miriam Altman, Executive Director, Research Programme on Employment and Economic Policy, HSRC l Simon McGrath, Director of FET Research, Research Programme on Human Resources Development, HSRC l Andrew Paterson, Chief Research Specialist of EMIS Research, Research Programme on Human Resources Development, HSRC Free download from www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za [...]... 2003 l HRD REVIEW xxix ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS HDI HDI HDIs HDR HDT HDU HEARD HEMIS HEQC HIV/AIDS HPCSA HPI HRD HSRC HSS ICT IDRC IEB IES IMD Free download from www.hsrcpublishers.ac.za ILO IMS ISASA ISETT ISI IT ITBs KILM KZN LC LFS LP MAPPP MBA MCSE MEDUNSA MERG MERSETA xxx HRD REVIEW l 2003 Human development index Historically disadvantaged institution Historically disadvantaged individuals Human. .. individuals Human Development Report Historically disadvantaged technikon Historically disadvantaged university Health Economics and AIDS Research Division Higher Education Management Information System Higher Education Quality Committee Human Immunodeficiency Virus/ Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Health Professions Council of South Africa Human poverty index Human resources development Human Sciences... are staple goods such as food, clothing and housing (Chapter 3) 2003 l HRD REVIEW xiii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Note: All this data can be downloaded in Excel format off the HSRCs Data Warehouse website on http://hrdwarehouse.hsrc.ac.za CONTEXT Chapter 1 HRD and Joined-Up Policy Table 1 Institutions critical to the development of human resources Table 2 Estimated number of annual school-leavers who... 6 Emigration of professionals by gender, 1971-2000 243 Figure 7 Emigration of professionals by destination, 1970-2000 243 Chapter 11 International Benchmarks Components of the human development index, 2002 259 Table 2 Human development index trends, 1975-2000 260 Table 3 Mean scores showing South Africas performance in the TIMSS, 1999 261 Table 4 HIV/AIDS indicators, end 1999 263 Table 5 Labour force... 1998/99-2004/05 (MTEF projection for 2004/05) (R million) 54 Table 11 Provincial social service expenditure by sector (nominal), 1997/98 -2003/ 04 (MTEF projection for 2003/ 04) (R billion) 55 Table 12 Provincial education expenditure, 1997/98 -2003/ 04 (MTEF projection for 2003/ 04) (R billion) 56 CPIX and real growth in GDP 1996/97-2001/02 , 40 Figure 2 Gross capital formation in 1995 prices 41 Figure 3 Change... million) 48 Figure 1 Figure 6 xiv HRD REVIEW l 2003 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Figure 7 Consolidated national and provincial expenditure by service, 2004/05 MTEF projection 51 Figure 8 Consolidated national and provincial social service expenditure by sector, 2004/05 MTEF projection 53 Social service expenditure (nominal), 1997/98 -2003/ 04 (MTEF projection for 2003/ 04)(R billion) 55 Figure 10 Sectoral... thousand) 289 MTEF spending estimates for provincial public schools by province, 2001/02 actual to 2004/05 (R thousand) 290 Per capita spending in public schools by province, 2001/02 -2003/ 04 (Rand values) 291 Table 6 Table 7 2003 l HRD REVIEW xix LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Table 8 Average per learner allocation on the norms and standards for 2000 and 2001 (Rand values) 291 Table 9 MTEF estimates for technical... institutions by race and institution type, 2000 and 2001 426 2003 l HRD REVIEW xxiii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Chapter 19 Enterprise Training Table 1 Enterprise training, 1986-1998 437 Table 2 Distribution of private sector enterprises by enterprise size and employment, 1997 440 Table 3 Measures of progress against key NSDS success indicators, 2002 -2003 443 Table 4 Aggregate training rates, 2000-2002 445... and Development BMR Bureau for Market Research CAD Computer-aided design CASE Community Agency for Social Enquiry CBI Cape Biotechnology Initiative CENIS Centre for Interdisciplinary Studies CEO Chief Executive Officer CESM Classification Educational Subject Matter CGS Council for Geoscience CHE Council on Higher Education CSDS Centre for Social and Development Studies, now called the School of Development. .. (FTEs), 1983/84-1997/98 228 Figure 15 Masters and doctoral enrolments at universities, 1985-2000 229 Figure 16 University postgraduate enrolments in the natural and human sciences, 1995 and 2000 230 Figure 11 Figure 12 xviii HRD REVIEW l 2003 LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Chapter 10 Skills Migration Table 1 Emigration of professionals: Comparative figures for top destination countries, 1989-1997 238 Table . www.hsrc p ublishers.ac.za ii HRD REVIEW l 2003 © 2003 Human Sciences Research Council Compiled by the Research Programme on Human Resources Development, Human Sciences. of South Africa Recommended citation: Human Sciences Research Council (2003) Human Resources Development Review 2003: Education, Employment and Skills