University of Arkansas, Fayetteville ScholarWorks@UARK State of the Northwest Arkansas Region Report Center for Business & Economic Research 10-8-2020 State of Northwest Arkansas Region, Business Analysis 2020 Mervin Jebaraj University of Arkansas, Fayetteville Mike Harvey Northwest Arkansas Council Karen Roberts Northwest Arkansas Council Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarworks.uark.edu/nwaregion Part of the Growth and Development Commons, Public Economics Commons, and the Regional Economics Commons Citation Jebaraj, M., Harvey, M., & Roberts, K (2020) State of Northwest Arkansas Region, Business Analysis 2020 State of the Northwest Arkansas Region Report Retrieved from https://scholarworks.uark.edu/ nwaregion/10 This Video is brought to you for free and open access by the Center for Business & Economic Research at ScholarWorks@UARK It has been accepted for inclusion in State of the Northwest Arkansas Region Report by an authorized administrator of ScholarWorks@UARK For more information, please contact ccmiddle@uark.edu State of the Northwest Arkansas Region & Quarterly Business Analysis Mervin Jebaraj, Director Center for Business and Economic Research October 8, 2020 Twitter: #StateofNWA @uawaltoncollege @MervinJebaraj Change in Real GDP Source: U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA 3.7% 2.4% 5.4% 5.6% Austin-Round Rock MSA Des Moines-West Des Moines MSA 1.8% Madison MSA Durham-Chapel Hill MSA 4.5% 3.3% 2.3% 1.0% 3.4% 4.9% Raleigh MSA 5.9% 6.4% Provo-Orem MSA 4.4% 4.6% Peer Average Arkansas 1.0% 1.7% 2.5% US 0.0% 7.1% 1.0% 2.0% 2.9% 3.0% 2013-2018 Average Annual Growth 4.0% 5.0% 2017-2018 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Source: U.S Commerce Department, Bureau of Economic Analysis 2020.Q1 2019.Q3 2019.Q1 2018.Q3 2018.Q1 2017.Q3 2017.Q1 2016.Q3 2016.Q1 2015.Q3 2015.Q1 2014.Q3 2014.Q1 2013.Q3 2013.Q1 2012.Q3 2012.Q1 2011.Q3 2011.Q1 2010.Q3 2010.Q1 2009.Q3 2009.Q1 2008.Q3 2008.Q1 2007.Q3 2007.Q1 Real U.S Gross Domestic Product Growth Rate 35.0% 25.0% 15.0% 5.0% -5.0% -15.0% -25.0% -35.0% Percent Change in All Consumer Spending Chetty, Friedman, Hendren, Stepner, and the OI Team (2020) Unemployment Rate, Annual Average Source: U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers MSA 2.8% 2.6% 3.7% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 3.6% 2.9% 2.7% 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% Austin-Round Rock MSA Des Moines-West Des Moines, MSA Madison MSA Durham-Chapel Hill MSA 3.4% Raleigh MSA Provo-Orem MSA 2.4% Peer Average 2.9% 2.9% Arkansas 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% US 3.9% 2015 2.0% 2017 2019 4.8% 3.9% 5.0% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 5.0% 4.0% 4.0% 4.4% 5.3% 6.0% 8.0% Unemployment Rates, Not Seasonally Adjusted 16.0% 14.0% 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Jul-20 Jan-20 Jul-19 Jan-19 Jul-18 Jan-18 Jul-17 Jan-17 Jul-16 Jan-16 Jul-15 Jan-15 Jul-14 Jan-14 Jul-13 Jan-13 Jul-12 Jan-12 Jul-11 Jan-11 Jul-10 Jan-10 Jul-09 Jan-09 Jul-08 Jan-08 Jul-07 0.0% Jan-07 2.0% Fay-Spr-Rog Fort Smith LR-NLR-Conway Jonesboro Pine Bluff Hot Springs Labor Force, Year Over Year Percent Change 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Northwest Arkansas Hot Springs MSA Jonesboro MSA Fort Smith Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway MSA Pine Bluff MSA Aug-20 Jul-20 Jun-20 May-20 Apr-20 Mar-20 Feb-20 Jan-20 Dec-19 Nov-19 Oct-19 Sep-19 Aug-19 Jul-19 Jun-19 Apr-19 -6.0% May-19 -4.0% Median Cost of Homeownership as Percent of Income Source: U.S Census Bureau 18.6% 17.9% 17.4% 18.4% 17.6% 17.4% 19.1% 18.4% 17.6% 18.1% 16.8% 16.6% 17.5% 16.0% 16.4% 19.0% 18.4% 17.9% 15.8% 14.7% 14.5% 15.0% 15.6% 15.2% 15.2% 20.0% 17.4% 17.3% 17.3% 19.3% 18.7% 18.3% 25.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% FayettevilleSpringdaleRogers MSA Austin-Round Rock MSA Des MoinesWest Des Moines MSA Madison MSA DurhamChapel Hill MSA 2015 2017 Raleigh MSA 2019 Provo-Orem MSA Peer Average Arkansas US $500 1H 2005 2H 2005 1H 2006 2H 2006 1H 2007 2H 2007 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 1H 2010 2H 2010 1H 2011 2H 2011 1H 2012 2H 2012 1H 2013 2H 2013 1H 2014 2H 2014 1H 2015 2H 2015 1H 2016 2H 2016 1H 2017 2H 2017 1H 2018 2H 2018 1H 2019 2H 2019 1H 2020 Benton and Washington County Average Price of Houses Sold $300,500 $250,500 $200,500 $150,500 $100,500 $50,500 Benton County Washington County 1H 2005 2H 2005 1H 2006 2H 2006 1H 2007 2H 2007 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 1H 2010 2H 2010 1H 2011 2H 2011 1H 2012 2H 2012 1H 2013 2H 2013 1H 2014 2H 2014 1H 2015 2H 2015 1H 2016 2H 2016 1H 2017 2H 2017 1H 2018 2H 2018 1H 2019 2H 2019 1H 2020 350,000 Selected Cities in Benton County Average Price of Houses Sold 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 Bella Vista Bentonville Centerton Rogers Siloam Springs Selected Cities in Washington County Average Price of Houses Sold $300,000 $275,000 $250,000 $225,000 $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $0 1H 2005 2H 2005 1H 2006 2H 2006 1H 2007 2H 2007 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 1H 2010 2H 2010 1H 2011 2H 2011 1H 2012 2H 2012 1H 2013 2H 2013 1H 2014 2H 2014 1H 2015 2H 2015 1H 2016 2H 2016 1H 2017 2H 2017 1H 2018 2H 2018 1H 2019 2H 2019 1H 2020 $25,000 Fayetteville Springdale West Washington County Washington County 1H 2005 2H 2005 1H 2006 2H 2006 1H 2007 2H 2007 1H 2008 2H 2008 1H 2009 2H 2009 1H 2010 2H 2010 1H 2011 2H 2011 1H 2012 2H 2012 1H 2013 2H 2013 1H 2014 2H 2014 1H 2015 2H 2015 1H 2016 2H 2016 1H 2017 2H 2017 1H 2018 2H 2018 1H 2019 2H 2019 1H 2020 3,000 Selected Cities in Benton County Empty Lots in Active Subdivisions 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Bentonville Centerton Rogers Siloam Springs Cave Springs Fayetteville Springdale West Washington County 1H 2020 2H 2019 1H 2019 2H 2018 1H 2018 1H 2017 2H 2016 1H 2016 2H 2015 1H 2015 2H 2014 1H 2014 2H 2013 1H 2013 2H 2012 1H 2012 2H 2011 1H 2011 2H 2010 1H 2010 2H 2009 1H 2009 2H 2008 1H 2008 2H 2007 1H 2007 2H 2006 1H 2006 2H 2005 1H 2005 2,500 Selected Cities in Washington County Empty Lots in Active Subdivisions 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 $150,000 Bentonville Rogers Fayetteville Springdale 1H 2020 2H 2019 1H 2019 2H 2018 1H 2018 2H 2017 1H 2017 2H 2016 1H 2016 2H 2015 1H 2015 2H 2014 1H 2014 2H 2013 1H 2013 2H 2012 1H 2012 2H 2011 1H 2011 2H 2010 1H 2010 Average Price of New Houses Sold $400,000 $350,000 $300,000 $250,000 $200,000 Bentonville, Fayetteville, Rogers, Springdale Average Square Feet of New Houses Sold 2,900 2,700 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 Bentonville Rogers Fayetteville Springdale 1H 2020 2H 2019 1H 2019 2H 2018 1H 2018 2H 2017 1H 2017 2H 2016 1H 2016 2H 2015 1H 2015 2H 2014 1H 2014 2H 2013 1H 2013 2H 2012 1H 2012 2H 2011 1H 2011 2H 2010 1H 2010 1,500 2H 2009 1,700 0% Bentonville Fayetteville Rogers Siloam Springs Springdale 1H 2020 2H 2019 1H 2019 2H 2018 1H 2018 2H 2017 1H 2017 2H 2016 1H 2016 2H 2015 1H 2015 2H 2014 1H 2014 2H 2013 1H 2013 2H 2012 1H 2012 2H 2011 1H 2011 2H 2010 1H 2010 2H 2009 1H 2009 2H 2008 1H 2008 2H 2007 1H 2007 2H 2006 1H 2006 Selected Cities Multifamily Average Vacancy Rates by City 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% CENSUS 2020 Response Rate Questions and Comments? The 2019 State of the Northwest Arkansas Region Report is available at http://cber.uark.edu Business Forecast 2020 is January 29, 2021 Contact at mjebaraj@walton.uark.edu or on Twitter: @MervinJebaraj .. .State of the Northwest Arkansas Region & Quarterly Business Analysis Mervin Jebaraj, Director Center for Business and Economic Research October 8, 2020 Twitter: #StateofNWA @uawaltoncollege... 20% 15% 10% 5% CENSUS 2020 Response Rate Questions and Comments? The 2019 State of the Northwest Arkansas Region Report is available at http://cber.uark.edu Business Forecast 2020 is January 29,... $University of University of Arkansas, Rank Texas, Rank 36 126 Iowa State University, Rank 70 University of University of Wisconsin, North Rank Carolina, Rank 12 Duke University, Rank 10 University of