The Effects of Climate Change on Florida''s Ocean and Coastal Resources_0

T H E E F F E C T S OF Climate Change O N F L O R I D A’ S Ocean & Coastal RESOURCES A S P E C I A L R E P O R T TO T H E F LO R I DA E N E R GY A N D C L I M AT E COMMISSION AND THE P E O P L E O F F LO R I DA Tallahassee, Florida It is widely accepted that human activities can impact global climate patterns While there are legitimate disagreements among scientists on the nature, magnitude, and impact of these changes, the potential risks to Florida’s natural resources and our economy compel us to seek a thorough understanding of possible impacts and to provide current and future generations with the information necessary to adjust to them Florida Oceans and Coastal Council Revised June 2009 The effects of climate change on Florida’s ocean and coastal resources A special report to the Florida Energy and Climate Commission and the people of Florida Tallahassee, FL 34 pp Photos on front and back cover courtesy of DEP, Bureau of Beaches and Coastal Systems; Paige Gill; Dave Gilliam; NASA; Guy Weeks & istockphoto.com ii Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS iv EXECUTIVE SUMMARY vi Why This Report Was Written Global Climate Change and Florida The Long­Term Solution About the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council 2008–2009 Council Accomplishments I vi vi viii viii ix INTRODUCTION Why Floridians Should Care about Climate Change What Is Climate Change? Principal “Drivers” of Climate Change and How They Will Affect Florida Research Priorities II INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE: THE 2007 REPORT SUMMARY III CLIMATE CHANGE AND FLORIDA’S INFRASTRUCTURE, HUMAN HEALTH, AND ECONOMY Infrastructure Impacts Human Health Impacts Economic Impacts 6 IV “DRIVERS” OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THEIR EFFECTS ON FLORIDA’S OCEAN AND COASTAL RESOURCES DRIVER: Increasing Greenhouse Gases Effect: Increases in Ocean Acidification DRIVER: Increasing Air Temperature and Water Vapor Effect: Altered Rainfall and Runoff Patterns Effect: Altered Frequency and Intensity of Tropical Storms and Hurricanes DRIVER: Increasing Ocean Temperature Effect: Increases in Coral Bleaching and Disease Effect: Increases in Fish Diseases, Sponge Die­offs, and Loss of Marine Life Effect: Changes in the Distribution of Native and Exotic Species Effect: Changes in Nutrient Supply, Recycling, and Food Webs Effect: Harmful Algal Blooms Effect: Hypoxia DRIVER: Increasing Sea Level Effect: Changes in Estuaries, Tidal Wetlands, and Tidal Rivers Effect: Changes in Beaches, Barrier Islands, and Inlets Effect: Reduced Coastal Water Supplies 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 V: CLIMATE CHANGE: PRIORITIES FOR FLORIDA’S OCEAN AND COASTAL RESEARCH 25 REFERENCES 28 iii Acknowledgments This document was produced by the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council, in cooperation with the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conser­ vation Commission, and Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Members of the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council are as follows: University of South Florida EX OFFICIO MEMBERS Peter Ortner, Director, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, University of Miami Florida Department of Environmental Protection Co­chair: Mike Sole, Secretary Designee: Bob Ballard, Deputy Secretary, Land and Recreation Lisa Robbins, Senior Scientist, Center for Coastal and Watershed Studies, U.S Geological Survey Florida Fish and Wildlife Conserva­ tion Commission Co­chair: Ken Haddad, Executive Director Designee: Gil McRae, Director, Fish and Wildlife Research Institute Thomas D Waite, Dean, College of Engineering, Florida Institute of Technology Florida Fish and Wildlife Conserva­ tion Commission Appointees: James Cato, Senior Associate Dean and Director, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Florida Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Charles Bronson, Commissioner Designee: Billy Causey, Regional Director, Southeast Region, National Marine Sanctuary Program Sherman Wilhelm, Director, Division of Aquaculture Holly Greening, Executive Director, Tampa Bay Estuary Program APPOINTED MEMBERS Jerome Lorenz, Research Director, Tavernier Science Center, National Audubon Society Florida Department of Environmen­ tal Protection Appointees: Shirley Pomponi, Executive Director, Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute, Florida At­ lantic University Karl Havens, Director, Florida Sea Grant John C Ogden, Director, Florida Institute of Oceanography and Professor of Biology, iv Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services Appointees: The following individuals served as peer reviewers: Jane Davis, Aquarium Director, The Living Seas, Walt Disney World’s Epcot® John Church, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre Ernest Estevez, Director, Center for Coastal Ecology, Mote Marine Laboratory Douglas Gregory, Florida Sea Grant Extension Agent Jim Gray, Member, Coastal Conservation Association Florida Jonathan Gregory, Professor, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading and Met Office Fellow in Climate Change Jerry Sansom, Executive Director, Organized Fishermen of Florida Jody Thomas, Director, South Florida Region, The Nature Conservancy Joy Hazell, Florida Sea Grant Extension Agent Ben Kirtman, Professor, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Univer­ sity of Miami C O N T R I B U TO R S & R E V I E W E R S The following individuals also provided input and contributed to the preparation of this report: Ricardo A Alvarez, Florida Atlantic University Frank Marks, Director, Hurricane Research Divi­ sion, Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteor­ ological Laboratory, National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration Lora Fleming, Medical School and Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami George A Maul, Professor and Department Head, Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Laura Geselbracht, The Nature Conservancy Maia McGuire, Florida Sea Grant Extension Agent Roy R “Robin” Lewis, III, Lewis Environmental Services Vasu Misra, Assistant Professor, Department of Meteorology and Center for Ocean­ Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University George Maul, Marine and Environmental Systems, Florida Institute of Technology Lisa Osterman, U.S Geological Survey Mike Spranger, Associate Director, Florida Sea Grant Program Nathaniel Plant, U.S Geological Survey Dick Poore, U.S Geological Survey David Zierden, Florida State Climatologist, Center for Ocean­Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University Kim Ritchie, Mote Marine Laboratory Kris Serbesoff­King, The Nature Conservancy Jyotika Virmani, Florida Institute of Oceanog­ raphy, Florida Coastal Ocean Observing System Consortium Coordinated by Becky Prado, Office of Coastal and Aquatic Managed Areas, Florida Department of Environmental Protec­ tion Editorial assistance was provided by Linda Lord, Bureau of Watershed Management, Florida Department of Environmental Protection Graphic design was provided by Rebecca Eisman, Creative Endeavors v Executive Summary W H Y T H I S R E P O R T WA S WRITTEN carbon dioxide, are produced naturally and are also generated by human activities such as burning fossil fuels and widespread deforestation The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council pre­ pared this report to provide a foundation for future discussions of the effects of global climate change on Florida’s ocean and coastal resources, and to inform Floridians about the current state of scientific knowledge regarding climate change and how it is likely to affect Florida It provides important information for leg­ islators, policymakers, governmental agencies, and members of the public who are working to address, or who are interested in, issues related to climate change in Florida The Council anticipates that the report will be updated periodically, and has recommended a number of research priorities for ocean and coastal research to improve levels of certainty about how climate change will affect Florida The question for Floridians is not whether they will be affected by global warming, but how much—that is, to what degree it will continue, how rapidly, what other climate changes will accompany the warming, and what the long­ term effects of these changes will be Florida is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change It has over 1,200 miles of coastline, almost 4,500 square miles of estuaries and bays, more than 6,700 square miles of other coastal waters, and low­lying topography In addition, most of its 18 million residents live within 60 miles of the Atlantic Ocean or Gulf of Mexico Its diverse, productive coastal and marine ecosystems provide food and other products, valuable and irreplaceable ecological func­ tions, and aesthetic and recreational opportu­ nities The state’s life­support system, economy, and quality of life depend on preserving and sustaining these resources over the long term GLOBAL CLIMATE C HAN GE AND FLORIDA Global climate change is a reality The scientific consensus presented in the 2007 report of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is that warming of the Earth’s climate system is unequivocally taking place (1) The report also concludes that most of the temperature increase since the mid­ 20th century is very likely caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activities These gases, which include The four major aspects of climate change addressed in this document are increasing greenhouse gases, increasing air tempera­ ture and water vapor, increasing ocean temperature, and increasing sea level In this report they are called “drivers,” and for each driver the effects on Florida’s ocean and coastal resources are described in terms of vi what is known, what is probable, and what is possible “Probable” means that an effect is highly likely to occur in the future, while “possi­ ble” means that it may occur, but that predicted impacts must be carefully qualified to reflect the level of certainty adverse impacts on corals, clams, shrimp, and other marine organisms with calcium carbonate shells or skeletons • Most of the increase in average air temper­ atures since the mid­20th century is due to increases in greenhouse gases Currently, none of the predicted effects is expected to benefit Florida’s natural resources or human population (although this perspective may change as new knowledge becomes available) The potential impacts of climate change on the state’s infrastructure, human health, and economy are significant • Water temperatures at the sea surface rose by an average of 0.5 degrees Fahrenheit (0.3 degrees Celsius) between the 1950s and 1990s in tropical and subtropical waters Continued increases at this rate are probable • Over the past 30 years, increased sea­ surface temperatures have led to episodic die­offs of sponges, seagrasses, and other important components of coastal and marine ecosystems It is probable that the die­offs will become more frequent Here is what is known and what is probable based on current scientific knowledge: • Over the last 650,000 years, levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide have both increased and decreased • Reef­building corals of Florida now are 1.8 to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 1.5 degrees Celcius) closer to their upper temperature lim­ its than they were 100 years ago In upcom­ ing decades, as water temperature increases, the tolerance of some coral species will prob­ ably be exceeded • The rate of change in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has been about 100 times faster in recent decades than over the past 650,000 years Concentrations of other greenhouse gases, such as methane and nitrous oxide, have also increased sig­ nificantly • Corals that are stressed by high water temperature have displayed higher rates of disease, a situation that will probably become more widespread in upcoming decades Coral bleaching events will also probably be more frequent • Atmospheric carbon dioxide will continue to increase at the rate of about 0.5 percent per year for at least the next few decades • As oceanic carbon dioxide has increased, the world’s oceans have become more acidic, with pH declining by 0.1 standard units (representing a 30 percent increase in acidity) since 1750 A further decline is under way The reduced pH (increased acidity) probably will have • The geographic range of marine species will shift northward as sea­surface temperatures continue to rise The species composition of Florida’s native marine and estuarine communities will change, perhaps drastically vii • With further rises in water and atmospheric temperatures, conditions will probably be more favorable for exotic plant and animal species to invade Florida’s coastal waters impact on coastal infrastructure such as roads and buildings For example, buildings along the coast may experience catastrophic damage in upcoming decades if sea level continues to rise at the projected rate • Harmful algal blooms probably will increase if water temperatures continue to rise TH E LON G­ TERM SOLUTI ON • Increased stormwater runoff in some parts of the state, coupled with human population increases, will increase the transport of nutrients to coastal waters, contributing to hypoxia (low oxygen) Some effects of climate change, such as ocean acidification, have already begun Others will begin in the coming decades, and the time will come when Florida is simultaneously and con­ tinuously challenged by many of these effects The long­term extent and severity of oceanic or coastal effects caused by climate change ultimately depend on how rapidly humanity can eliminate human sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases entering the atmos­ phere at harmful levels, now and in the future • Sea levels around Florida have been slowly rising, at about inch or less per decade • Sea levels around the state probably will continue to rise at historical to accelerated rates in upcoming decades, and could eventually threaten coastal development and the ecological integrity of natural communities in estuaries, tidal wetlands, and tidal rivers ABOUT THE FLORIDA OCEANS A N D C OA S TA L C O U N C I L The 2005 Florida Legislature created the Florida Oceans and Coastal Council to annually establish a statewide agenda to prioritize ocean and coastal research, identify where research funding is needed, and coordinate public and private ocean research for more effective coastal management The Council comprises 15 voting members and t h re e n o n vo t i n g m e m b e rs T h e F l o r i d a Department of Environmental Protection, Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Com­ mission, and Florida Department of Agriculture and Consumer Services appoint five members e a c h t o t h e c o u n c i l A d d i t i o n a l l y, o n e representative from each of these agencies serves as a nonvoting member Additional information on the Council is available at: http://www.floridaoceanscouncil.org • As a result of increasing sea levels, Florida probably will become more vulnerable to coastal flooding and storm surges • Shoreline retreat and erosion are occurring now, and further rises in sea level will prob­ ably exacerbate this situation Barrier islands probably will continue to erode and migrate towards the mainland • As sea levels rise, shallow coastal aquifers and associated public drinking water sup­ plies are at risk from saltwater intrusion The Pensacola and Miami­to­Palm Beach corridors are especially vulnerable to salt­ water intrusion into public water supplies and reduced aquifer recharge • Climate change is likely to have a significant viii 2008–2009 COUNCIL ACCOMPLISHMENTS a moored instrument; • A south Florida high­frequency radar array; Sponsored the National Ocean Economics Program at California’s Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute to complete Phase II: Florida Ocean and Coastal Economies Report: • An east­central Florida shelf array; deep ocean biological observatory station within the Oculina Habitat Area of Particular Concern; • Made a presentation to the Governor and Cabinet on the economic impact of Florida’s ocean and coastal economy; and • A moored buoy in data­sparse northeast Florida waters; • A real­time high­resolution ocean and atmospheric modeling system for the Florida region; • Hosted the Florida Coastal and Ocean Economics Forum to present the work to the public and Florida’s marine industries • Florida­specific satellite remote sensing; and Completed eight coastal ocean observing systems projects through a contract with the Florida Coastal Ocean Observing System Consortium: • A northeast Florida shelf/estuary model Continued work on the Resource Assessment for Florida • Strategic Coastal Ocean Observing Imple­ mentation Plan and workshops (including the Ocean Tracking Network); Continued work on the Research Review for Florida • Continuous remote sensing of nitrate using Co­sponsored three conferences/workshops: • 11th Annual International Coral Reef Symposium; • Coastal Cities Summit; and Photo courtesy of University of South Florida • Florida’s Wildlife: On the Frontline of Climate Change (with the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission) Supported the Florida Water Resources Monitoring Council, enabling it to draft a Florida Coastal Monitoring Action Plan Co­sponsored the Gulf of Mexico Alliance's First Annual Monitoring Forum, which focused on data comparability and coastal nutrient criteria ix S E C T I O N I Introduction The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council prepared this report to provide a foundation for future discussions on the effects of climate change on Florida’s ocean and coastal resources The report addresses the aspects of climate change that are most important for Florida, its residents, and its coastal and ocean resources It provides important information for legis­ lators, policymakers, governmental agencies, and members of the public who are working to address, or who are interested in, climate change issues in Florida The Council antici­ pates that the report will be updated periodically so that advances in science and policy can be communicated to Floridians is coming when the state is simultaneously and persistently challenged by all of these effects WHY FLORIDIANS SHOULD C A R E A B O U T C L I M AT E C H A N G E Global climate change is not a science fiction scenario but a reality The scientific consensus reached in 2007 by the United Nations’ Inter­ governmental Panel on Climate Change (see Section II) is that warming of the Earth’s climate system is unequivocally taking place, and that most of the temperature increase since the mid­ 20th century is very likely caused by increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from human activities (see the sidebar) (1) WHAT ARE GREENHOUSE GASES? Greenhouse gases, found in the Earth’s at­ mosphere, are produced by natural and in­ dustrial processes They absorb and emit heat, or infrared radiation, from the planet’s surface, atmosphere, and clouds While these gases are essential to maintaining the Earth’s temperature, excess quantities can raise temperatures by radiating heat toward the surface The most important green­ house gases are water vapor (which causes 36 to 70 percent of the green­ house, or warming, effect on Earth); carbon dioxide (9 to 26 percent); methane (4 to percent); and ozone (3 to percent) Other greenhouse gases include nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocar­ bons, perfluorocarbons, and chlorofluoro­ carbons (2) Thus, the question for Floridians is not whether they will be affected, but how much—that is, to what degree warming will continue, how rapidly, what other climate changes will accompany the warming, and what the long­ term effects of these changes will be Some detrimental effects, such as ocean acidification, are already well documented Others will begin in the coming years and decades, and the time I IV “Drivers” of Climate Change and Their Effects on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources E F F E C T : Changes in the Distribution of Native and Exotic Species As marine species shift northward with overall warmer ocean temperatures, this shift may have either negative or positive impacts Some species may be able to survive farther north than in current ranges, but interactions among communities with new species compositions cannot be predicted Moreover, reproduction in some fishes decreases in warmer temperatures, potentially resulting in population decreases • By giving introduced species an earlier start, and increasing the magnitude of their growth and recruit­ ment compared with natives, global warming may facilitate a shift to dominance by non­native species, accelerating the homogenization of global animal and plant life (65) WHAT WE KNOW: • Geographic species ranges will shift northward as a result of increased water temperatures (58) • Recent changes in the distribution and produc­ tivity of a number of fish species can, with high confidence, be ascribed to regional climate variability, such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation warming phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean (57) • The frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are likely to have a major impact on future fisheries production in both inland and marine systems (5, 59) • Along with increasing sea temperatures, staghorn and elkhorn coral are now re­expanding their ranges northward along the Florida Peninsula and into the northern Gulf of Mexico (59) • Non­native, larger­bodied bivalves—a group of mollusks that includes oysters and clams—will be the most successful invaders, while native, large­bodied bivalves may be more sensitive to environmental changes Consequently, the native species may either shift their ranges or become locally extirpated as climate shifts (66) • Abundant fossil evidence demonstrates that marine animals shifted toward the poles as sea­ surface temperatures rose—for example, during the early Holocene (10,000 ­ 6,000 years ago) when cold­sensitive corals extended their range to the north (60) • The effects of disease in marine organisms are likely to become more severe, because warmer temperatures generally favor the development of pathogens relative to their hosts (55) • In addition to allowing natural range expan­ sions, warming temperatures can facilitate the establishment and spread of deliberately or accidentally introduced species (62, 63) WHAT IS POSSIBLE: • Non­native, tropical invasive species could over­ whelm Florida’s native temperate marine and estu­ arine systems (67) WHAT IS PROBABLE: • Projections of future conditions portend further im­ pacts on the distribution and abundance of fishes that are sensitive to relatively small temperature changes • Florida’s native marine and estuarine systems will change species composition, perhaps drastically (64) • The impacts on living communities may stem from changing maximum and minimum water tempera­ tures, rather than annual means • Some species may not persist Other, currently rare species may become dominant (58) IV 17 IV “Drivers” of Climate Change and Their Effects on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources E F F E C T : Changes in Nutrient Supply, Recycling, and Food Webs The metabolism of marine and coastal ecosystems is affected by water temperature, nutrient supply, and volume of freshwater inputs How efficiently or inefficiently nutrients move through the food web can affect the diversity, number, and economic value of living marine resources A food web is the interconnected network through which energy, in the form of food, is transferred and stored among species in an ecosystem WHAT WE KNOW: • Climate­related changes in freshwater runoff to coastal marine systems, coupled with changes in stratification (or layering) patterns linked to warming and altered salinity, will change the quantity and availability of nutrients in estuarine systems (68) WHAT IS PROBABLE: • Changes in the absolute and relative availability of nutrients will lead to changes in microscopic plants (phytoplankton) and microbial activity in the marine food web (69) WHAT IS POSSIBLE: • Induced changes may result in food webs that are less efficient in transferring energy to higher levels, thus affecting the productivity of economically impor­ tant fish and other plant and animal life (69) IV 18 IV “Drivers” of Climate Change and Their Effects on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources E F F E C T : Harmful Algal Blooms Photo courtesy of Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Harmful blooms are caused by microscopic algae in the water column that can produce biological toxins, such as those generated by red tide in coastal marine waters; blue­green algae in estuarine waters; or larger species of marine and estuarine algae that grow on the bottom, which can smother corals and other native plants and animals WHAT WE KNOW: • Environmental factors, including light, tempera­ ture, and nutrient availability, set the upper limit to the accumulation of marine algae biomass (70) The algae that cause harmful algal blooms in coastal marine and estuarine waters are favored over other algae when water tem­ perature is high and the water becomes ther­ mally stratified (71, 72) Harmful algal blooms have been reported throughout Florida’s coastal marine and estuarine waters (73) WHAT IS PROBABLE: • If climate change systematically increases nutrient availability and alters the amount of available light and the stability of the water column, there may be substantive changes in the productivity, composition, and biomass of marine algae, including the harmful species (74) • If water temperatures increase due to climate change, harmful algal blooms probably will become more frequent and intense (71, 72, 75) WHAT IS POSSIBLE: • The increased occurrence, intensity, and toxicity of harmful algal blooms may result in the disruption of coastal marine and estuarine food webs, more frequent fish kills, and adverse impacts to people in or near an affected coastal area (70, 71, 75) IV 19 IV “Drivers” of Climate Change and Their Effects on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources E F F E C T : Hypoxia Photo courtesy of Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission Warm water holds less dissolved oxygen than cold water Hypoxia, or low oxygen, occurs when the levels of oxygen dissolved in water fall below levels necessary to support ocean and coastal life, and can lead to what is called a “dead zone.” Nutrients can cause or exacerbate hypoxic conditions by causing certain organisms to proliferate, leading to decreased oxygen when they decay Terrestrial nutrients are introduced into the ma­ rine environment through precipitation and runoff WHAT WE KNOW: • Hypoxia can occur as a natural phenomenon and also as a human­induced or exacerbated event (76) • Precipitation and runoff amounts and distribution have changed over recent years and will con­ tinue to change as climate change progresses (77) WHAT IS PROBABLE: • Increased runoff in some areas, coupled with human population increases in Florida, will lead to the in­ creased transport of nutrients to coastal waters, con­ tributing to hypoxia (5) WHAT IS POSSIBLE: • Locations that have experienced hypoxia may also experience longer hypoxic episodes, or even the annual recurrence of hypoxia (78) • Increased density stratification within estuaries could occur with increased precipitation and runoff (79) • New locations with hypoxia may develop in coastal areas (78) • There may be adverse impacts on bottom­feeding fish and sessile (attached to the bottom) organisms (5) IV 20 IV “Drivers” of Climate Change and Their Effects on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources D R I V E R : Increasing Sea Level The rate at which sea level rises is equally as important to coastal resources as how much it rises Florida’s geology, chemistry, biology, and human population have already been, and will continue to be, profoundly affected by rising sea level For the past few thousand years, the sea level around Florida has been rising very slowly, although a persistent upturn in the rate of relative sea­level rise may have begun recently (5) Geolog­ ical studies show that in the past, Florida and global sea level rose or fell much more rapidly than in recent times Distinguishing Florida­specific sea­level trends from future global trends is a critical research need because of ocean warming and contributions from land­based ice melt from glaciers and the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica (5) WHAT WE KNOW: • Around Florida, relative sea level has been rising at a slow but constant rate, about an inch or less per decade (80) • Sea­level rise will continue well after 2100 even if greenhouse gas concentrations are stabilized by then (5) • The rate of global sea rise increased from the 19th to the 20th century (5) WHAT IS POSSIBLE: • Major inputs of water from the melting of high­ latitude and high­altitude ice reservoirs could cause several meters of sea­level rise over a period of centuries (82) WHAT IS PROBABLE: • The rate of global average sea­level rise has increased during the late 20th century (81) 0.5 2080 Seasonally Filtered Monthly MSL (m) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 200 400 600 800 1000 Monthly Index Key West, FL—forecasted sea level rise IV 21 1200 1400 1600 1800 Illustration courtesy of Todd L Walton, Jr., Cambridge University Press, page 1835, Figure 3, ScienceDirect, Ocean Engineering 34, © 2007 Elsevier Ltd • In time, the rate of global sea­level rise will accelerate IV “Drivers” of Climate Change and Their Effects on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources E F F E C T : Changes in Estuaries, Tidal Wetlands, and Tidal Rivers Although Florida tide ranges are relatively small, tidal effects extend far inland because much of the state is so low and flat Because sea level has been relatively constant for a long time, tidal wetlands such as mangrove forests and salt marshes have been able to grow into expansive habitats for estuarine and marine life How ­ ever, these tidal wetlands are sensitive to the rate of sea­level rise and can perish if sea­level rise exceeds their capacity to adapt With rising sea levels, sandbars and shoals, estuarine beaches, salt flats, and coastal forests will be altered, and changes in freshwater inflow from tidal rivers will affect salinity regimes in estuaries and pat­ terns of animal use Major redistributions of mainland and barrier island sediments may have compensatory or larger benefits for wetland, seagrass, or fish and wildlife communities, but these processes cannot be fore­ cast with existing models • Upland plant communities along tidal rivers and es­ tuaries will be replaced by low­lying, flood­prone lands Increased saline flooding will strip upland soils of their organic content (84, 92) WHAT WE KNOW: • Estuarine circulation, salinity, and faunal use pat­ terns are changing (42) • Many tidal wetlands are keeping pace with sea­level changes (83) Some are accreting vertically, migrating up­slope, or both (84, 85, 86) The rate of sea­level rise will be critical for tidal wetlands • Low­diversity wetlands will replace high­diversity wet­ lands in the tidal freshwater reaches of coastal rivers (93) • Major spatial shifts in wetland communities, includ­ ing invasions of exotic species, will occur (94) • Wetlands elsewhere are perishing as estuarine and coastal forests and swamps are retreating and being replaced by marsh vegetation (84, 85, 86) • More lowland coastal forests will be lost during the next one to three centuries as tidal wetlands expand across low­lying coastal areas (95) • Most tidal wetlands in areas with low freshwater and sediment supplies will “drown” where sea­level rise outpaces their ability to accrete vertically (96) • Open estuarine waters, some brackish marshes, and mangroves in south Florida estuaries are ex­ panding (87, 88) • Even at constant rates of sea­level rise, some tidal wetlands will eventually “pinch out” where their upslope migration is prevented by upland defenses such as seawalls (83, 89) WHAT IS POSSIBLE: • More than half of the salt marsh, shoals, and mud­ flats critical to birds and fishes foraging in Florida es­ tuaries could be lost during the 21st century (87) • Recreational and commercial fish species that de­ pend on shallow water, or intertidal and subtidal plant communities, will be at risk (87) WHAT IS PROBABLE: • Increased air temperatures and reductions in freeze events will result in mangrove habitat moving north­ ward, replacing salt marsh in some areas (90, 91) • The loss of tidal wetlands will result in dangerous losses of the coastal systems that buffer storm im­ pacts (97) IV 22 IV “Drivers” of Climate Change and Their Effects on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources E F F E C T : Changes in Beaches, Barrier Islands, and Inlets Beaches and inlets are regional systems of sediment deposition, erosion, and transport These processes are profoundly affected by changes in sea level and rates of sea­level change, as well as storm events Scientists and resource managers will be challenged to separate the effects of sea­level changes from the effects of storms and the alterations resulting from beach and inlet management actions WHAT WE KNOW: • Shoreline retreat due to erosion and overwash is occurring now (98) • There is an increase in the formation of barrier island inlets and in island dissection events, in which islands are eroded by wind and waves (98, 99) WHAT IS PROBABLE: • Continued sea­level rise will exacerbate erosion (100) • Barrier islands will continue to erode, migrate land­ ward, and be reduced in elevation (100) • Coastal transportation infrastructure will be affected WHAT IS POSSIBLE: • Increased overwash, breaching of coastal roads, and dissection of barrier islands will occur (98) • Low barrier islands will vanish, exposing marshes and estuaries to open­coast conditions (100) IV 23 IV “Drivers” of Climate Change and Their Effects on Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Resources E F F E C T : Reduced Coastal Water Supplies Sea levels in Florida are expected to eventually rise to the degree that saltwater intrusion will threaten the aquifers that currently supply much of Florida’s drinking water in low­lying areas This problem will be exacer­ bated by increased withdrawals of water for the anticipated increase in Florida’s population WHAT WE KNOW: • Shallow coastal aquifers are already experienc­ ing saltwater intrusion The freshwater Ever­ glades recharges Florida's Biscayne aquifer, the primary water supply to the Florida Keys When rising water levels submerge the land, the low­lying portions of the coastal Everglades become more saline, decreasing the recharge area and increasing saltwater intrusion (101) • The South Florida Water Management District already spends millions of dollars per year to prevent Miami's Biscayne aquifer from becom­ ing brackish (102) WHAT IS PROBABLE: • A sea­level rise of about inches would require greater cutbacks in water use by developed regions in order to prevent saltwater intrusion; however, the interior regional hydrologic system of south Florida would not be significantly affected (103) • The Pensacola and Miami­Palm Beach corridors are especially vulnerable to saltwater intrusion into com­ munity fresh water supplies with rising sea levels (104, 105) WHAT IS POSSIBLE: • Eventually, if sea level continues to rise, surficial aquifers throughout the state will be threatened IV 24 SECTION V Climate Change: Priorities for Florida’s Ocean and Coastal Research The climate­related effects identified in this document are expected to result in major changes to Florida’s marine resources, as well as to its developed coastal areas To sus­ tain the quality of life of residents, the diversity and productivity of marine ecosystems, and the economy of the state in the face of these changes, residents, elected officials, resource managers, and university scientists must work together to find timely, responsible, and ef­ fective solutions These often may involve difficult decisions that consider tradeoffs among the various sectors that depend on coastal resources, and as such, they will be politically as well as technologically challenging Thus, it is imperative that decisions be based on sound science The Florida Oceans and Coastal Council will continue to address the critical information needs related to climate change for coastal and marine systems during its future delibera­ tions At this time, the following recommendations from the Council’s 2009–2010 Research Plan directly support Florida’s climate­based information needs: CLIMATE C HAN GE ral resource impacts and adaptation of exist­ ing coastal development Emphasis is on collaborative, statewide efforts with peer review These can include steps that may be necessary to improve model accuracy such as improved topography for coastal uplands The world’s changing climate has the potential to dramatically impact Florida’s marine resources, disrupt marine­based economies and cause sig­ nificant damage to coastal development, thereby creating the need for mitigation and adaptive­ management strategies Providing guidance to minimize effects on Florida’s population and nat­ ural resources must begin with investigation into three key areas outlined below Assessing the impact on fisheries productivity from changes in Florida’s estuarine habitats due to climate change Monitoring, modeling, and mapping of natu­ ral system responses with an emphasis on predicting effects of climate change on coral reef communities To establish baseline data, it will be necessary to map and characterize Florida’s coral reef communities Research Priorities—Climate Change: Modeling of sea­level rise based on Inter­ governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and development of cost estimates for resulting effects in terms of natu­ V 25 WAT E R Q UA L I T Y acting on a variety of scales from hundreds of kilo­ meters to millimeters Having a comprehensive understanding of these ecosystems through reli­ able baseline information is critical to supporting wise management decisions Water quality is of critical importance to Florida— it determines what biological communities can live in a water body, whether the water is harmful to humans, and whether the water is suitable for other designated uses With an economy driven by our environment, maintaining water quality to support coral reefs, grass beds, fishing, and beach activities must be a high priority Research Priorities—Ocean and Coastal Ecosystems: Map and characterize the seafloor and coast including the distribution and abundance pat­ terns of coastal marine organisms Emphasis is on the gaps in mapping identified by the state resource management agencies at the Florida Mapping Workshop in February 2007 Research Priorities—Water Quality: Research and monitoring that examine effects of excess nutrients on living coastal resources and relate them to causes and sources and to human activities The intent is to support cost­effective resource manage­ ment programs to improve oceans and human health Improve understanding of coastal and ocean hydrology, including the linkages between freshwater input and coastal waters Empha­ sis should be on water budgets, hydrologic modeling, and factors affecting and control­ ling freshwater input to coastal and nearshore waters Statewide coastal observing that guides water quality management, marine resource management, and navigation and hazard re­ sponse Research and modeling to understand and describe linkages between ocean and coastal habitats and the living marine re­ sources they support One area of emphasis is the effects of marine protected areas (MPAs) on surrounding populations Fisheries and their linkages to habitats are an important area of these studies Harmful algal bloom (HAB) research to pro­ tect tourism, commercial and recreational fish­ eries, and inform watershed management for ocean health The emphasis is on non­red tide HABs as red tide HABs are already being addressed Modeling of hydrodynamics, water quality, and coastal/ocean ecosystems to support better understanding of cause and effect be­ tween uplands activities, coastal freshwater discharges, and resulting effects on estuarine and marine biological communities Increase understanding of ocean and coastal economics, including the values of non­market resources and the costs and benefits of beach nourishment and beach restoration TO O L S A N D T E C H N O LO GY O C E A N A N D C OA S TA L ECOSYSTEMS Fulfilling Florida’s need to observe and predict environmental change and the ecosystem re­ sponses of its coastal waters provides abundant opportunity for the development and implemen­ tation of cost­effective tools and technologies to understand, monitor, and improve the health of Florida’s resources Florida’s ocean and coastal ecosystems are criti­ cal to maintaining the economic activity they sup­ port, from beachgoing to fishing It is also critical to maintain as sustainable natural systems These resources are shaped by geology, water move­ ment, and the plants and animals themselves inter­ V 26 Photo courtesy of Mike White, Florida Keys NMS Research Priorities—Tools and Technology: Integrated Data Management and Predic­ tion — Coordinated collection, handling, quality control, sharing, and interpretation of research and monitoring data are critical to improving the State’s resource manage­ ment capabilities Centralized coordination of model development to provide prediction and user­friendly web­based posting of in­ formation and model predictions are needed to accommodate science­based decisions by management agencies and the general public Integrated Coastal and Ocean Observing Systems—A mix of in­water platforms and buoys, shipboard surveys, remote sensing, and computer models is required for continu­ ous monitoring of climate change, water quality, and status of marine resources The goal is to create a sustained interdisciplinary observing system that spans all of Florida’s waters from the outer shelf to coastal estuar­ ies and rivers Emphasis is on extending, inte­ grating, and filling gaps in existing coastal observations Development of innovative tools and inte­ gration of data to cost­effectively map and monitor the State’s coasts and oceans Development of sensors to provide improved abilities to determine the status and trends of our coastal waters and their inhabitants Emphasis is on sensor development for bio­ logical and chemical sensing, as well as tag­ ging and tracking of wildlife Development of assessment tools, particularly for assessments of biological community status and trends, for rapid assessments of natural 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