Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar

UNITED STATES ARMY TRAINING AND DOCTRINE COMMAND The Future Operational Environment Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar Portsmouth, Virginia 19-21 August 2008 Fort Monroe, Virginia 10 September 2008 OVERVIEW This report is an unclassified summary of issues and insights from the 2008 Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar These issues and insights were derived from the plenary session presentations and the breakout session discussions throughout the seminar They are not intended or structured as the Army's official view, but reflect the observations and opinions of those focused on identifying trends and developing the framework of the future operational environment and contributing to the JFCOM Joint Operational Environment (JOE) publication We have attempted to incorporate minority opinion where it was offered, and in no way intend to portray unanimity in views expressed This report addresses two areas of focus:   Developments in selected advanced and emerging technologies The challenge to national security posed by individuals and small groups with access to these technologies The seminar was a great success The presentations and on discussions added to our understanding of the technologies that will be available future Operational Environment We gained insights into an array potential future weapons as well nature of the adversary that may employ them The full measure value added to our understanding future OE and its impact on experimentation and concept development is yet to be realized followin the (OE) of as the of of the POC for this report is Tom Schmidt (757) 788-2907 thomas.schmidt@us.army.mil of 10 SUBJECT: 2008 Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar The Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command, organized and hosted the 2008 Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar in Portsmouth, VA 19 – 21 August 2008 The seminar attracted approximately 80 attendees from a variety of government, industry, and academic agencies This report will explain the purpose of the seminar, discuss its conduct and content, and provide a summary of the insights and observations as they pertain to the future OE and add to our examination of future warfare PURPOSE The objective of the seminar was to investigate proliferating technologies with the potential to empower individuals and groups in the next 10-25 years Plenary presentations examined emerging science and technologies that could fundamentally challenge future military concepts and operations Breakout group discussions focused on the critical questions: What is the potential impact of these technologies on the future operational environment? What challenges will technology-empowered individuals and groups pose to national security? The insights from Mad Scientist 2008 will expand our understanding of the future Operational Environment to support Joint and Army concept development, training, and experimentation Mad Scientist will also support TRADOC G-2’s work on persistent conflict and future instability Insights developed support TRADOC and the Army’s efforts to anticipate the challenges presented in the future Operational Environment and develop strategies to shape that environment and respond to the challenges posed by future technologies Presentations covered the following areas: • • • • • • • • • • • • • • • Seminar Overview (Bushnell, NASA-Langley) Robotics (Jones, iRobot Corporation) Human Life Extension (Coles, Gerontology Research Group) Quantum Technology (Dowling, Louisiana State University) Molecular Manufacturing (Jacobstein, Teknowledge) Machine Intelligence (Yudkowsky, Singularity Institute) Global Sensor Grid (Orcutt, University of California – San Diego) Synthetic Biology (Weiss, Princeton University, Virtual Reality (Peterson, The Strategy Augmentation Group) Beyond Silicon Computing (Mazumder, National Science Foundation) Nano Materials (Sulcoski, National Ground Intelligence Center) Alternative Energy (Bushnell, NASA Langley Research Center) Brain/Neurologics (Braunreiter, SAIC) Emerging Individual Empowerment (Petersen, The Arlington Group) Superempowered Individuals (Smart, Acceleration Studies Foundation) of 10 Facilitated small group discussions followed the presentations Through observation, group brief backs, submitted comments, and notes taken of each session, the G2 gained insights on:    The ways in which these technologies impact the future OE The access of individuals and small groups to these technologies The potential for using advanced technologies as weapons G2 will incorporate these insights into ongoing projects examining trends and the future OE and recommend inclusion in the next iteration of the JFCOM JOE White Paper In addition, the insights will assist the G2 in support of the Army Capabilities Integration Center to integrate realistic threats with access to advanced technologies into UQ 08 and exploring concepts and technologies to counter that future threat DISCUSSION a As globalization continues and information technologies grow increasingly available, the pace of scientific discovery and technological development is rapidly accelerating At the same time, the U.S must accept the reality that it can no longer assume technological superiority over the rest of the world Ready access to scientific information and technological know-how has and will continue to level the playing field In the contemporary - and increasingly so in the future - operational environment, individuals and small groups will leverage available science and technology to compete in an arena historically reserved for the deep pockets of nation states and large corporations While the vast majority of these scientific entrepreneurs will pursue the next penicillin or the elusive fountain of youth, there will be that small percentage of sociopaths and fanatics either unaware of or unbounded by the accepted norms of social and cultural interaction as it unfolds in the global environment These individuals – whether seeking individual notoriety or striving for a “cause” that, in their minds, justifies any action – will find ways to pervert advanced technologies to their own ends While the technologies in and of themselves are neutral, they can be used in the pursuit of both good and evil In anticipating the challenges of the future operational environment, the U.S must prepare to exploit the former while frustrating the latter b Technologies now emerging or on the verge of emerging in the operational environment have the potential to dramatically improve the human condition Ongoing research holds the promise of significantly extending the productive life span of humans; providing cheap, plentiful, and renewable energy; feeding a growing global population; and mitigating – if not reversing – the negative impacts of global warming In Mad Scientist 2008, the following science and technology areas emerged as those with the greatest potential of achieving significant progress in the next 20-30 years:  Information Technologies In the foreseeable future, technologies focused on communications, computing, sensing, and electronics will fully establish the global information grid, making virtually all human knowledge accessible to nearly every person on the planet Conversely, this grid that can provide information everywhere, can also gather information However, the capability to identify, track, and monitor the activity of individuals will be limited more by social norms than by technological capability Further, as humans grow ever more comfortable interacting in the future information environment, activity in virtual reality will become more common Telecommuting and at-home shopping are already changing the way we live Virtual 3-d entertainment and travel, interactive tele-medicine, and ondemand, long-distance education are on the horizon In extreme cases, life in a virtual reality may appear more satisfying than the real world Knowledge will be delivered directlyto the brain Learning will be a matter of seconds rather than years Information technologies, as a group, will have the ability to enhance and augment the functions of the human brain and, ultimately, develop machine-intelligence able to achieve a level of intelligence approaching, if not exceeding, the human brain  Nanotechnology Nanotechnology concerns the ability to understand and manipulate the environment at the nano-meter scale Though the physics behind the behavior of molecules and atoms at the nano-scale is of 10 still poorly understood, nano-materials are already finding their way into commercial products, primarily in the electrical, optical, and electro-optical arenas Current research shows promise for super-strong nano materials, vastly more effective and efficient explosives and fuels, and superconductive materials Scientists envision nano machines engaged in activities as diverse as medical procedures, food production, environmental cleanup, and even having the potential to redesign and replicate themselves  Biotechnology Biotechnologies discussed in this conference focused on investigating means of augmenting and enhancing human performance, improving the individual’s quality of life, and extending the productive life span of the average human The recent completion of the human genome mapping project has opened the door for research into gene manipulation with the potential of eliminating hereditary diseases and birth defects and perhaps leading to “designer” babies Animals have been successfully cloned – how soon will human body parts or even humans follow? Applied to other organisms in our environment, biotech can contribute to enhanced productivity of agriculture and animal husbandry, recovery of the environment, and restoration of renewable resources  Energetics The ability of the future operational environment to sustain an acceptable quality of life for a growing global population depends to a large extent on the availability of and access to energy Current needs are met by, in order of energy produced, petroleum, coal, natural gas biomass (e.g., ethanol), nuclear fission, hydroelectric, geothermal, solar, wind, and others Many analysts believe that the era of cheap oil ended in 2005 and exponentially growing demand ensures that it will not return Coal and nuclear sources have a cost in terms of environmental impact and waste products which makes them a less than ideal alternative S&T efforts in developing alternative energy sources have focused on environmentally friendly, renewable, and potentially cheap solutions Biomass, geothermal, and solar energy technologies shows the most promise, each offering an estimated 4000+ exojoules of available and renewable energy per year (petroleum, by contrast, offers 140; global use is 400 exojoules/year) of 10  Quantum Physics Quantum theory is the theoretical basis of modern physics that explains the nature and behavior of matter and energy at the atomic and subatomic level Quantum technology has potential application in computing, cryptography, communications, chemistry, optics, and, at the far edge of possibility, zero point energy Theoretical applications of quantum theory are often enabled by coupling with nanotechnologies and advanced LASER research When realized, the potential of quantum physics will produce a significant surge in virtually every human endeavor and will quite possibly fundamentally alter man’s perception of his universe c Discussions in the plenary sessions and small group venues that followed developed the consensus opinion that – while each technology showed promise in itself – the interaction between and combination of two or more of these advanced technologies offered the best probability of successfully addressing the myriad challenges the future operational environment will present to human survival and social well being Most likely results include an increased life span, a solution to the energy crisis, ready availability of food and fresh water to all, a global distribution of technology, education, economics, and – therefore – wealth This will reduce the tension between the “haves” and “have-nots” while the capabilities of robotics and access to virtual reality to both care for and entertain will create the perception of wellbeing almost universally around the globe Advancements are limited only by imagination and resources This optimistic vision –expressed by individuals and small groups at the conference – reflects the goals that motivate the majority of S&T research and development Most scientists – and most people – go about their business with the honest intention of creating a better world for their and future generations Unfortunately, there are exceptions and it was the purpose of this conference to examine the ways that these technologies could be exploited to empower individuals and small groups bent on destruction and chaos They possess no shortage of imagination and often have access to tremendous resources Lacking the latter, these technologies offer numerous opportunities for low-cost capabilities in the future operational environment  Information technology will offer easy access to the global information grid Such access will be very empowering in and of itself because of the wealth of information at one’s fingertips As the saying goes, “Knowledge is power.” Well-educated individuals will develop of 10     information attack capabilities that they can introduce into the grid to penetrate, exploit, capture and/or destroy any or all network infrastructures Quantum computing will exponentially increase the speed and effectiveness of attacks on the information grid and underlying infrastructures relying on secure, reliable computing capability Nanotechnology has the potential for development of weapons in its own right; the use of nanotechnology in combination with chemical, biological, nuclear, and radiological capabilities is perhaps our greatest threat Nano can facilitate production, concealment, delivery and activation of these more conventional threats, thereby enhancing their effectiveness as WMD/E Bio-engineered weapons Future bio agents will be more virulent Bioengineering will allow bio weapons to be tailored toward specific targets and groups of targets For example: o Synthetic biology with custom logic will be used to bring down communication and transportation networks, and select media o Deadly biological agents will be introduced into targeted ethnic and religious groups that will be difficult or invisible to detect o Deadly biological plant virus will be used against agriculture crops of targeted groups or nations, crippling the food supply o Deadly biological agents introduced to animal feed and grain supply diminishing cattle, chicken, sheep, and fish farms The globalization of the world market offers numerous vectors for the effective spread of bio agents, which can have an immediate impact or be tailored to remain dormant for a specified time The likelihood of bio weapons targeted against materials – oil, rubber, metals - must also be considered Individuals with access to the global information grid can easily acquire the knowledge needed to develop lethal bio agents, literally in their kitchen sink Nanotechnology and robotics will offer opportunities to introduce and spread bio and chemical agents into targeted populations Alternative energy sources will provide a new range of targets for individuals and small groups Biological agents are easily introduced into agricultural areas that may provide biomass for biofuels; storage sites for spent nuclear fuel can be attacked using easily acquired industrial age weapons and explosives Future dependency on alternative energy sources creates a vulnerability easily exploited with a potential payoff far above its cost Alternative energy sources are also empowering They provide a potential for cheap, portable power sources for use in manufacturing weapons and to power the weapons themselves Their use also provides a mobility that frustrates detection and location of hostile groups and activities The next 25 years will see directed energy weapons become a reality DE will be developed to target both people and materials US dependence on electronics and electronic networks can make DE an of 10  effective WMD/E when used against targets such as Wall Street or a major urban transportation hub Many of the future technologies discussed are being developed under the auspices of legitimate programs with beneficial outputs Nuclear energy, bio-engineering of vaccines, chemical fertilizers and pest control are all necessary for continued social and economic well-being However, it is a relatively small step to turn these technologies toward the development of weapons with a potential for WMD and/or WME It is probable that numerous such programs currently being pursued throughout the world are concurrently serving as a cover for research into and development of a range of WMD/E Bio labs especially have a small footprint and their dual-use nature makes detection of a bio weapons program particularly challenging d The Innovative use of emerging technologies will lead to a whole new arsenal of low cost, easily employed weapons and destructive capabilities Nanotechnology, swarming, and bio-engineering are areas being pursued by many entities throughout the world, most with the best of intentions In the study of warfare, we have come to accept the fact that the synergistic application of capabilities produces an effect well beyond the simple addition of individual actions The ability to combine several technologies can make this threat far more difficult to anticipate and control Consider nano devices as a vector for the spread of a bio-engineered virus; a chemical agent that manipulates the effects of an EM or RF device; or a bio agent that remains dormant until activated by some form of DE or EM For the future, we can assume that as a technology matures, someone will find a way to apply it as a weapon For nation-states, anticipated retaliation and universal condemnation have served as deterrents to indiscriminate first-use of WMD Two emerging phenomena have contributed to significantly loosening those constraints One is the emergence of non-state actors, such as Al Qaida, who offer no target for physical retaliation and no sensitivity toward global opinion A second is the capability of individuals to access the information and materials to cheaply develop sophisticated capabilities to attack populations and infrastructure CONCLUSION In the operational environment of 2030 and beyond, the destructive/disruptive capability of the individual and small group will be more effective, more lethal, more easily developed/acquired, more efficiently delivered, and more easily concealed and transported The information age empowers individuals to affect systems and networks globally Nano technologies, swarming, networks, miniaturization and other seemingly benign technologies will be used in combinations with other capabilities to facilitate their delivery and enhance their effectiveness The dual-use nature of many technologies will allow open development of a commercial/civilian capability with a relatively easily concealed component devoted to weaponizing them of 10 Potential adversaries will include non-state entities with easy access to the knowledge and material for cheaply and covertly developing a significant technological capability Such entities may be driven by a zealotry that denies deterrence, disregards constraints, defies retaliation, and welcomes martyrdom for the cause, whatever it may be Future accessibility to these technologies and materials will empower small groups and even individuals to produce and employ WMD with zealotry equal to the most fanatical Islamist The future threat may be limited not by technology, but by the imagination of our adversaries Likewise, our ability to anticipate and counter such threats is directly tied to our ability to envision innovations and the potential synergy of two or more advanced technologies working as one RECOMMENDATIONS a Integrate the results of the 2008 Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar into the continued examination of the future Operational Environment b Incorporate future technologies into the scenario for UQ 09 and both Red Team and Blue Force capabilities for UQ and other concept development and experimentation events c Participants and interested individuals are invited to participate in ongoing dialogue regarding advanced S&T and the future operational environment by contacting the TRADOC G2 10 of 10 ... 2008 Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar The Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, US Army Training and Doctrine Command, organized and hosted the 2008 Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar. .. Integrate the results of the 2008 Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar into the continued examination of the future Operational Environment b Incorporate future technologies into the scenario... from the 2008 Mad Scientist Future Technology Seminar These issues and insights were derived from the plenary session presentations and the breakout session discussions throughout the seminar They