Nhân tố ảnh hưởng tới xuất khẩu sản phẩm nông nghiệp của việtnam

Factors affecting export of agricultural products of Vietnam Introduction • • • Research rationales The subject of study: The thesis focuses on identifying the factors affecting exports of some agricultural products of Vietnam Scope of the study • Scope of content: The dissertation is conducted to research, evaluate and quantify the effects of these factors on Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products in general and some specific agricultural products in particular (rice and coffee) through various indicators, indexes, and specific analysis models • Scope of time: Secondary data sources are used to research in the period 1997- 2013 Due to the latency of the data provided by the countries so the most fully data updated in 2016 However, some parts of the dissertation, data in the period of 2014-2016 can be used • Scope of space: The thesis is conducted to research activities of merchandise trade in general and exports of agricultural products of Vietnam in particular as well as some countries and regions • • Research questions – – What are the unique traits of agricultural product exports of Vietnam during 1997 - 2013 period? – What are the solutions in order to promote Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products? What are factors affecting exports of agricultural products of Vietnam? How did it affect exports of agricultural products of Vietnam in recent years? Thesis structure – – – – – Chapter 1: Introduction Chapter 2: Literature Review Chapter 3: Reality of export of Viet Nam agricultural product Chapter 4: Analysis of factors affecting agricultural products export of Viet Nam Chapter 5: Policy Recommendations and Concluding Remarks LITERATURE REVIEW Overview of researches related to agricultural product export Some theories of goods commerce and agricultural product export Absolute advantage Comparative advantage Competitive advantage Competitive advantage feature of export agricultural product Role of agricultural product export to socio-economic development Definition of agricultural product National economic development strategy Role of agricultural export to the development of socio-economy DATA AND METHODOLOGY • • • Data Research Methodology Factors influential to Vietnam agricultural product export Data Classification: The thesis uses two types of data: qualitative data and quantitative data Data sources: World Bank (WB), United Nations Commodity Futures Exchange (UN Comtrade); General Statistics Office and the General Department of Customs; United States Department of Agriculture (USDA); Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); International Monetary Fund (IMF) Where: EXPORTijt: Exports of agricultural products of Vietnam to the country j in year t Data Analysis: Qualitative analysis method Methods for quantitative analysis A: Attractive coefficient, trade obstruction between Vietnam and the country j GDPit; POPit; LANit; OPENit: GDP, population, agricultural land area and the trade openess of Vietnam in the year t GDPjt; POPjt; LANjt: GDP, population and agricultural land area of country j in year t + Comparison method INFit: Vietnam's inflation rate in year t + Descriptive statistics + Analysis of constant market share (CMS) – we list here for explanation but not use this method in our analysis DISij: Geographic distance between Vietnam and countries j EDISijt: Economic gap between Vietnam and the country j in the year t (as measured by the difference in GDP per capita between the two countries - using absolute value) ERit: the actual average exchange rate (VND/USD) in the year t Regression analysis method WTOit: is a dummy variable It takes value of if Vietnam was not a member of the WTO in year t; It takes value of unity if Vietnam is a member of the WTO in year t APECijt: is a dummy variable It takes value of if Vietnam and the importing country was not a member of the APEC in year t; It takes value of unity if Vietnam and the importing country are both the members of the APEC in year t βi: is the coefficient of independent variables uijt: random error DATA AND METHODOLOGY Description of variables and hypothesis regarding the impact direction of variables in the model Note: (+): Positive effects; (-): Negative effects Source: Author’s summary from previous studies DATA AND METHODOLOGY • • • Data Research Methodology Factors influential to Vietnam agricultural product export Factors influential to agricultural product export • • • • (a) Product price policy for production of export agricultural products (b) Agriculture credit, investment policy giving development condition for the production of export agricultural product (c) Research, deploy and raise productivity in production of export agricultural products (d) Development policy of small and medium scaled enterprises served for processing export agricultural products Market factors of export agricultural products • • Commercial cooperation relation with countries, regional and Choosing techniques, strategies appropriate to each type of agricultural exhibition, promotion, • international markets associated with agricultural products export products to apply in marketing as advertisement, etc to increase agricultural product market share in countries Business environment of export agricultural product should be paid special care because it affects the competitive ability of agricultural product Elements influential to export price of agricultural product EMPIRICAL RESULTS Situation of Vietnam's agricultural development Growth rate of agriculture and economics Source: Author synthesis based on GSO data Structure of sectors’ GDP and contribution out of overall growth for the period 2011-2016 Source: Author synthesis based on GSO data EMPIRICAL RESULTS Situation of Vietnam's agricultural development Revealed Comparative Advantage index (RCA) of Vietnam agricultural exports Export activities Source: Central Institute for Economic Management (2014) Labor structure and productivity Source: Author synthesis based on data of GSO and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development EMPIRICAL RESULTS Vietnam - Agriculture value added (USD Billion) Factors affecting agricultural products export of Viet Nam Broad picture data analysis period 1990 - 2016 Vietnam - Agriculture productivity (USD / worker) Source: The World Bank, https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/ Vietnam - GDP share of agriculture 1985 to 2017 EMPIRICAL RESULTS Broad picture data analysis period 1990 - 2016 Vietnam - Employment in agriculture 1991 – 2017 (%) Vietnam - Rural population, percent of total population 1960 - 2017 Vietnam - Agricultural land 1961 – 2015 (km ) Source: The World Bank, https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/ Vietnam - Arable land, percent of land area 1961 - 2015 10 EMPIRICAL RESULTS Constraints of agricultural development • The first is limited agricultural production resources, where the lack of adequate arable land is the most important factor while agricultural land accounted for 33.1% of country’s total area, the proportion of arable land area was only 20.25% Thus, the arable land area per person in Vietnam is only 0.073 hectares (lower than Asia’s average of 0.116 hectares) • • The increasing rate of landless farmers in Vietnam’s rural area Another constraint of Vietnam’s agricultural sector is import-dependence on production inputs and materials Vietnam is one of the world’s leading agricultural products exporters, yet seeds that have high quality, high productivity, and tolerance to drought, diseases, and pests are all imported With the expense of seeds reaching nearly 60 – 70% of total production costs, local farmers earn low profits, as they rely heavily on imported seeds Vietnam - Fertilizer use 2002 - 2015, kg per hectare of arable land Source: World Bank data base 11 EMPIRICAL RESULTS Exports of agricultural products of Vietnam from 1997- 2016 Current situations of imports and exports of Vietnam Import export of Viet Nam 2003 - 2016 Partner concentration of merchandise trade Viet Nam biggest import export partners Number of trading partners by value level 2013 - 2017 International merchandise trade by continent in 2017 Source: Customs Handbook on International merchandise trade statistics of Vietnam 2017 12 EMPIRICAL RESULTS Overall of agricultural product exports of Vietnam Agricultural exports of Viet Nam and Worldwide 1997 - 2013 Source: Author’s calculation from World Bank data RCA Index for Agricultural Product Exports of Vietnam and Selected Countries 13 Source: UN Comtrade, Worldbank and the Author’s Calculation EMPIRICAL RESULTS Effects of Vietnam’s agricultural exports in ASEAN and the World (Unit: Million USD) Some agricultural product exports of Vietnam Rice Coffee Souce: Viet Nam Customs 14 EMPIRICAL RESULTS REM model with Robust Standard Error of determinants of Vietnam’s rice, coffee and total agricultural products Numbers in parenthesis are z statistics Source: The author’s calculation with Stata 15 General assessment of Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products The achievements of Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products • • • Scale of agricultural exports fluctuated but in general showed a positive trend in the unstable context of world economy Export markets of agricultural products in general and some major agricultural products in particular have been expanding The exports of agricultural products of Vietnam has been taking full advantages of production of agricultural products as well as a number of positive factors The limitations of Vietnam’s exports of agricultural products • Overall, the achievements of agricultural product exports of Vietnam in recent years were still not in accordance with the potential of the country The quantities of agricultural product exports were large but the value added was not really high • Export strategy is not linked to the exploitation of advantages in agricultural production Vietnam is facing with the risk of losing its advantages as a tropical agricultural country in the global competition • • The export market is expanding but not really stable Trade barriers that currently being applied by importing countries has and will cause great influence on the exports of agricultural products of Vietnam, which cause an uncertain export prospects • The ability to seize opportunities and information regarding foreign markets is slow that makes the competitiveness of Vietnam's agricultural products in the world market is lower than that of the opponents 16 CONCLUDING REMARKS Opportunities • • • Expanding agricultural export market Increasing opportunities for attracting foreign investment, applying modern science and technology Increasing international competition - an important motivation for Vietnam agricultural development Challenges: • • • • The low competitiveness of the agricultural sector Land and water resources for agricultural production are declining The pressure on employment of rural workers has been increasing Climate change has been increasingly affecting Vietnamese agriculture 17 POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUDING REMARKS Some solutions to develop Vietnam's agricultural sector towards sustainability • First, promote the commodity production of agriculture in the direction of a modern market economy, transfer to knowledgebased agricultural production, and economic efficiency in terms of scale and value chain • Second, innovating and developing organizational forms of production Reorganize agricultural production by reforming forms of cooperation, strengthening linkages between the state, enterprises and households, forming associations, developing cooperatives, attracting deep participation of businesses • Third, to increase research, transfer and application of science and technology to agricultural development, especially to step up high technologies application and linkages along the closed value chain from production to purchase, processing and marketing of products • • • Fourth, perfect mechanisms and policies to create new motivations for agricultural development, farmers and rural areas Fifth, develop markets and international economic integration Sixth, developing infrastructure to meet the requirements of large-scale commodity production and strengthen adaptation capacity to climate change 18 19