DI ST RI BU TI ON THE ROUTLEDGE HANDBOOK OF ENERGY SECURITY T& F PR OO FS NO T FO R Edited by Benjamin K Sovacool ON TI ST RI BU DI First published 2011 by Routledge Park Square, Milton Park, Abingdon, Oxon, OX14 4RN FO R Simultaneously published in the USA and Canada by Routledge 711 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10017 Routledge is an imprint of the Taylor & Francis Group, an informa business © 2011 Benjamin K Sovacool for selection and editorial matter, individual contributors; their contributions NO T The right of the editor to be identified as the author of the editorial material, and of the authors for their individual chapters, has been asserted in accordance with sections 77 and 78 of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988 FS Typeset in Bembo by Integra Software Services Pvt Ltd, Pondicherry, India Printed and bound in Great Britain by CPI Antony Rowe, Chippenham, Wiltshire PR OO All rights reserved No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publishers T& F British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The Routledge handbook of energy security / edited by Benjamin K Sovacool p cm Includes indexes Energy development Energy consumption Energy policy Energy industries Supply and demand I Sovacool, Benjamin K HD9502.A2R68 2010 333.79 dc22 2010026134 ISBN13: 978-0-415-59117-1 (hbk) ISBN13: 978-0-203-83460-2 (ebk) ST RI BU TI ON 14 THE COMPETING DIMENSIONS OF ENERGY SECURITY Martin J Pasqualetti T& F PR OO FS NO T FO R DI Navy seals take aim at pirates who have taken control of an oil tanker in the Gulf of Aden Meanwhile, in England, hundreds of people regularly assemble to protest against the continued operation and relicensing of the nuclear power plants such as Sizewell after it was reported that demand for electricity was rising faster than expected A few hundred miles to the east, curious grade-school children must march through metal detectors before being allowed to tour a giant coal plant in Germany Across the Atlantic, oyster fishermen in southern Louisiana fret over their future as a giant oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico washes ashore and threatens their livelihood Off Cape Cod, Interior Secretary Salazar approves the installation of hundreds of wind turbines in Nantucket Sound, citing the increasing need for electricity in nearby communities In Southeast Asia, a tense CEO calls an emergency meeting when a power outage at his Intel plant in Penang plunges his entire factory into darkness To the north in urbanized China, new coal plants are being constructed at breakneck speed despite worries that the carbon dioxide they are emitting endangers climate stability In the southwest deserts of the US, a pipeline ruptures south of Phoenix, and within minutes cars line up at every gas station in a scene reminiscent of events that followed the infamous 1973 oil embargo In sub-Saharan Africa, villagers scrounge for fuel to cook meals for their families All these disparate and far-flung, events connect to one another by a common thread, energy security Often running under the radar of public discourse and media attention, energy security has steadily risen to the top of the agenda at all levels of private, corporate, military, and international discussions It is no longer whether the US should risk environmental damage by drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge; it is whether such potential oil discoveries there can decrease the need to import oil from unstable or unfriendly countries It is no longer just a matter of whether nuclear power plants can be operated safely; it is whether alternatives can meet demands for electricity from fossil fuels It is no longer just a worry that oil spills can occur from offshore drilling; it is whether such drilling can bolster domestic supplies and meet rising demand It is no longer just a matter of how wind turbines off Cape Cod might interfere with the recreational experience of those at the beach; it is whether Massachusetts can afford to forgo such development and still meet its needs for low-carbon energy With these and numerous other examples, energy matters are now being skewed by concerns of energy security in all its myriad manifestations As a reflection of greater visibility and rising sense of urgency, the John D and Catherine T MacArthur Foundation recently funded a meeting of 40 security specialists at the Lee Kuan 275 DI ST RI BU TI ON Martin J Pasqualetti T FO R Figure 14.1 Gulf of Aden: the Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer USS Farragut (DDG 99) passes by the smoke from a suspected pirate skiff it had just disabled USS Farragut is part of Combined Task Force 151, a multinational task force established to conduct anti-piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden Pirates on the high seas, particularly near the Gulf of Aden, have increased their attacks on oil tankers, jeopardizing supply lines between the Middle East and the rest of the world In order to provide greater security for these supplies, naval vessels from several countries have been deployed to provide additional security, but with limited success Source: Photo by Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Cassandra Thompson/Released) 100331-N-8959T308 March 31, 2010 http//www.flickr.com/photos/usnavynvns/4483342235/in/set-7215761800128177/ FS NO Yew School of Public Policy of the National University of Singapore (Table 14.1).1 The goal of the two-day gathering was to share perspectives and information, to identify metrics and indicators of energy security useful in making national policy decisions, and to sharpen the public debate about how to balance the needs, aspirations, and imperatives of an ever-crowded world Table 14.1 List of names and affiliations of attendees F Austria Austria Canada China China France France Name Institution Shonali Pachauri Alan McDonald Larry Hughes Li Jinke Shi Dan Nathalie Trudeau Aad van Bohemen International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis International Atomic Energy Agency Energy Research Group, Dalhousie University Shandong Institute of Business and Technology Chinese National Academy of Sciences International Energy Agency Head, Emergency Policy Division, International Energy Agency Associate Professor, Department of Public Policy, Central European University Professor, Director of Research, Central European University; Universitetslektor, Lund University The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) New Delhi, India Joint Secretary (Energy Security), Ministry of External Affairs PR OO Country Andreas Goldthau Hungary/Sweden Aleh Cherp India India Rekha Krishnan Sanjay Verma T& Hungary 276 The competing dimension Table 14.1 (continued) Name Institution India India India Former Secretary of the Indian Atomic Energy Commission Energy and Resources Institute Center for Security Analysis (Chennai) Japan Malaysia Netherlands New Zealand Singapore S Rajagopal Eshita Gupta BG (Ret) Krishnaswamy Srinivasan Asclepias R S Indriyanto Masanari Koike Gladys Mak Jaap C Jansen Barry Barton Scott Valentine Singapore Benjamin Sovacool Singapore Singapore Hooman Peimani Geoffrey Kevin Pakiam Joergen Oerstroem Moeller Violet Chen Edgard Gnansounou Tira Foran John Kessels Andy Stirling Michael Dworkin Godfrey Boyle Martin J Pasqualetti Jack Barkenbus Marilyn Brown Christopher Cooper Gal Luft Anne Korin PR OO FS USA USA USA USA USA TI ST RI BU DI R Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) FO Singapore Switzerland Thailand United Kingdom United Kingdom USA United Kingdom USA Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo Malaysia Energy Center Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) Professor, Faculty of Law, University of Waikato (correct) Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore Assistant Professor, Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore Energy Studies Institute (Singapore) Energy Studies Institute (Singapore) Energy Market Authority Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne (EPFL) USER—Unit for Social and Environmental Research International Energy Agency, Clean Coal Centre Professor, University of Sussex Professor, University of Vermont Law School Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University Professor, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University Senior Research Associate, Vanderbilt University Professor, School of Public Policy, Georgia Tech University Oomph Consulting, Alexandria, Virginia Co-Director, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security Co-Director, Institute for the Analysis of Global Security T Singapore Executive Director, Indonesian Institute for Energy Economics NO Indonesia ON Country T& F While many possible topics are worthy of discussion, the workshop confined itself to just a few, including: What is energy security and how can it be measured? What are the most appropriate metrics to measure various energy security dimensions? Are concepts of energy security appropriate uniformly for all countries? As discussions proceeded, other key questions emerged: Can there be equity in access and usage of energy for countries of the world or is this impossibly optimistic? Given that energy security is closely intertwined with climate security, should the two be addressed together? What is the impact of local and regional energy security on global security? Will energy insecurity lead to political destabilization? How we tackle the problem of sufficiency while deciding on security? I use these questions to provide the organizational outline for the following summary of the discussion in Singapore, including references to some of the burgeoning literature on the topic of energy security 277 Martin J Pasqualetti Definition T& F PR OO FS NO T FO R DI ST RI BU TI ON As we consider energy security, we find that there are three basic services most groups work with, namely transportation, space-conditions (i.e., heating and cooling), and applications that need access to a continuous supply of electricity (whether household appliances or computer systems for national defense) All people need at least basic energy services of these types, irrespective of whether a country is long or short on oil or natural gas or electricity The various stands that governments might take on geopolitical issues as a result of disparate resource endowments not detract from these shared needs Defining energy security is a precursor to considering its many linkages This task was the earliest and most fundamental topic discussed in Singapore It was clear from the beginning that the notion of energy security contains substantial complexity and fundamental areas of overlap For the International Energy Agency (IEA), the definition of energy security is “the availability of an uninterrupted or reliable supply of energy at an affordable price.”2 Ensuing discussion pointed out that this definition has physical, economic, social, and environmental dimensions, as well as long- and short-term dimensions.3 Barry Barton (one of the attendees) extended on the IEA version by defining energy security “as a condition in which a nation and all, or most, of its citizens and businesses have access to energy resources at reasonable prices for the foreseeable future free from serious risk of major disruption of service.”4 More elaborate and nuanced definitions are of course available As these definitions suggest, energy security may be simple in its basic concepts Nonetheless, improving energy security for specific situations and locations can be a complicated matter For example, some at the Singapore workshop found the definitions by the IEA and Barton too supply-oriented and too vague For them, the restrictive wording “for the foreseeable future” would seem at odds with the longerterm view implicit in the Brundlandt definition of sustainable development5 Also “sufficient” amount of energy, “reasonable” prices, and “serious” risk of “major” disruption are subjective and bound to vary across countries and communities Two suggestions at the Workshop identified the principal ingredients in any notion of energy security One, by Larry Hughes, alluded to security’s “Four ‘R’s:” Review (understanding the problem), Reduce (using less energy), Replace (shifting to secure sources), and Restrict (limiting new demand to secure sources).6 Another, this from the Asia-Pacific Energy Research Center, identified the “Four As” of energy security: Availability (of oil, other fossil fuels, and nuclear energy); Accessibility, referring to barriers accessing energy resources; Affordability, which is limited to fuel prices (including price projections) and infrastructure costs; and Acceptability, which refers to environmental issues dealing with coal (carbon sequestration), nuclear, and unconventional fuels (biofuel and oil sands).7 Any discussion of energy security must recognize that it varies from one place and one culture to another, especially at the household level For example, energy security for a simple residential unit in Bangladesh will not be the same as it would be in a plush condominium in Manhattan It must also recognize that energy security will not mean the same thing for chip-maker Intel as it would for gum-maker Wrigley, or for a resident of tropical Singapore as compared with someone in subarctic Helsinki Moreover, the energy world is volatile and changing rapidly This means that what is considered secure today may not be secure tomorrow Recognizing these disparities is to simply recognize a significant restriction on improving energy security It was clear during the workshop that we should differentiate between the concepts of energy security and the implementation of these concepts Implementation must be relevant to objectives, system limits, context, horizon, and so forth, while accepting that it is generally true to say that energy security means different things to different people, companies, and countries It should 278 The competing dimension ON be possible, nonetheless, to develop a common framework which can allow for different perspectives This framework should begin with vulnerabilities and enhancing resilience in the face of adverse disturbances regarding access of a country’s population to energy services Finally, the Singapore workshop identified several components that could be included in any discussion of the topic They included: T& F PR OO FS NO T FO R DI ST RI BU TI Reliability and affordability Every user finds such qualities among the most essential energy services Diversification When referring to energy security, diversification primarily means ensuring reliable supply, whether by tanker, transmission line, pipeline, train, or other means Having such diversification takes into account that that diversity must still be at an affordable cost; when taking geopolitical dynamics into account this can be a very complex process How we address this? Primarily diversity provides reliability of supply One way to achieve this would be to structure the energy supply system in a decentralized fashion leading to reduced length of pipelines, ocean transportation, and so forth Similar thinking would apply to storage as well Diversification refers to the basket of energy resources and energy suppliers, both by source and location While usually included in any measure of energy security, such diversification cannot be applied uniformly for all countries For example, increased diversity could be less important in Norway, which receives most of its electricity from its own ample and reliable hydropower resources The case for greater diversity could, however, be stronger for France, which is highly dependent for its electricity on nuclear power despite the absence of significant deposits of uranium reserves within its borders The argument for diversity requires context Churchill, wishing to make his fleet faster, decided on the eve of World War I to switch from secure coal to insecure oil As a consequence, of course, the UK immediately became reliant on a diversity of sources for its oil, making availability of this fuel a matter of national energy security.8 Another way to look at this matter is to consider that solar power is usually considered to be the most secure source of energy we have, yet it is the least diverse, at least as used directly Resilience Diversification is a strategy to increase the resilience of energy supplies and decrease the probability of supply disruption (insecurity) for a given demand and set of possible contingencies Variability This term refers to resource substitution options We can discriminate security among importing countries, transit countries, and exporting countries; between industrialized and developing countries; among different socio-economic standards and conditions We cannot expect energy security to be static over time or space For the “bottom two billion” of the world’s population, energy security is a matter of the minimum levels of energy services necessary for life and health Everyone needs the same basic services (transport, heating/cooling, and continuous supply of electricity) The question remains: which are the most important services and where will the energy come from to meet these services? The bottom two billion often lack the necessary energy resources needed to provide themselves with many basic services In these cases, what energy substitutes might be available to satisfy these needs? For heat, for example, there are many options; whereas there are no substitutes for electricity This means variability can increase energy security for certain purposes but not others Import independence This consideration is principal to countries from which imports are sourced; that is, external dependence could be indirect, as in the case of technology dependence, even if fuels or resources are indigenously available There is an important caution here: the assumption that imports are inherently insecure and domestic supplies are 279 Martin J Pasqualetti FS NO T FO R DI ST RI BU TI ON inherently secure is usually too simplistic; it tends to overlook the counterintuitive fact that some imported energy supplies may be considered secure (e.g., US reliance on Canadian crude oil), while some energy supplies that are available domestically can nevertheless be considered insecure (e.g., UK reliance on North Sea gas) Other topics Others topics important to the definition of energy security were raised but were not discussed at length They included: routes and transport and distribution networks, strategic energy storage capacity, peak energy demands, environmental stewardship (the responsibility not to increase environmental damage during development, transport, processing, distribution, or use of energy), adequacy of investment to assure security, contractual terms (e.g., long-term “take-or-pay” versus “spot market,” as varying by country and fuel), energy efficiency opportunities, and the distinction between a supplier’s energy security and a consumer’s energy security PR OO Figure 14.2 Gulf of Mexico: under pressure to increase domestic oil supplies, President Barack Obama proposed the opening of Gulf waters for expanded oil exploration and development Just two weeks later, BP’s Deepwater Horizon’s drilling rig exploded into flames and sank The accident led to a massive oil spill that in just one week exceeded the size of the state of West Virginia Drilling in the Gulf is supported as one way to reduce reliance on further oil imports Source: Photo by the U.S Coast Guard Available at: US Coast Guard — 100421-G-XXXXL-Deepwater Horizon fire Developing metrics and indices T& F One of the principal goals of the Singapore Workshop was to discuss and, possibly, identify metrics and indices of energy security Some of these metrics were considered fundamental and some were considered variable Broadly, the metrics came to be organized under these headings: import dependence and patterns “cleanness” of energy access to energy economic dependence on energy 280 The competing dimension T& F PR OO FS NO T FO R DI ST RI BU TI ON Metrics are important because they can provide useful data for analysis and use in technical operations and business decisions across organizations Whether quantitative or qualitative, metrics are measurements or readings resulting from an operating state or situation Applying this definition, it must therefore be possible to develop relevant metrics of impacting elements that help make an energy security index For example, per capita consumption of 700 kW of electricity in a particular country can be utilized to compare with a world average of 2300 kW and thereby help to make a judgment on quality of life, development status, and the need to ensure energy security A similar approach can be adopted when relevant parameters are identified and agreed Any discussion of metrics raises questions, and proceedings in Singapore were no exception Among the questions raised, two dominated: What ingredients constitute a useful index? How we identify what should be considered significant? These questions commonly form the basis of deliberative discourse on appropriate ingredients The inherent shortcoming of this approach is that different groups will gravitate toward different sets of ingredients to make up an index that comports with their cultural views; everyone has their own set of personal criteria to apply This became apparent at the Singapore Workshop, where many countries and cultures were interacting The agreed approach was to first identify common services, indicators, and methods, and then to select indicators that can make up a preferably quantitative set of indicators to be used Perhaps the most important element in any metric or index of energy security is energy infrastructure Indeed, substantial discussion at the Singapore Workshop focused on how to improve security by adjusting infrastructure Participants proposed developing a set of questions about alternative energy futures and then constructing a metric of energy security for each scenario It was agreed that this approach could be an improvement, and that going through such an exercise could allow a comparison of various options based on security gains For example, what would be the relative levels of energy security that would attend a nuclear energy future vs a renewable energy future? This could be construed as an “energy wedge.”9 Another alternative, one that attracted substantial support in Singapore, was to start with what the public in each culture and country might identify as important for their own individual energy security, and to seek to determine which combination of energy supplies would be considered the most secure to them This method is based on surveys of those who would be affected by each specific policy decision taken to improve security The validity of such a step will depend on survey design and questions It will also depend on the level of public understanding necessary to make informed decisions on long-term energy security issues To some, public education would be a necessary part of such an approach, yet even in its absence, just the perceptions of the public can play a strong role in developing policy decisions This is an argument for using expert opinion rather than public surveys One way around this problem would be to use a graphical technique for explaining the relationships.10 Some argued that energy security can be seen narrowly as the security of the supply of petajoules or BTUs (British Thermal Units) for human needs and wants It was pointed out, however, that this runs the risk of giving priority to amounts of energy rather than to human security So a broader view of energy security is obliged to ask questions about energy’s contribution to human welfare For example, have we increased our energy security if we threaten a war to obtain access to some oil field? Is energy security improved when the amount of dirty coal we burn results in the expense of an enormous increase in lung diseases? While these questions cannot be brought into the discussion in their entirety, there must be some qualification to the effect that an increase in the availability of energy is not at the expense of other human (or biospheric) values It was argued by some that we should keep climate change and energy security analytically clean and separate The intent of this recommendation was to only deal with those aspects of 281 Martin J Pasqualetti 20 mi Boston Atlantic Ocean ON TI Provincetown ST RI BU Area Enlarged DI Cape Cod Nantucket FO R Martha’s Vineyard Nantucket Proposed Sound wind farm NO T Figure 14.3 Nantucket Sound: proposed as a carbon-free energy source, the Cape Wind energy project was granted approval by Secretary of the Interior Salazar on April 28, 2010 Located in Nantucket Sound, it will be the nation's first offshore wind development One of the arguments for its approval was greater energy security Source: Cartography completed at the School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning, Arizona State University T& F PR OO FS climate change that may directly affect energy security This view is logically consistent, but it is based on an important assumption that metrics are being provided to a well-governed polity where climate and security are not only separated but can be reflected upon and managed wisely and rationally, balancing each other There are such societies Sweden is one example Some at the workshop believed that if a metric is to have worthy practical value it should proceed not from ideal models of governments but from real governments In most countries climate is indeed separate from energy security in a sense that it is always subordinate and sometimes has no influence on security discourse at all In such societies one cannot rely on presenting analytically and logically separate metrics and then hoping for sound integration Those metrics that not fit the currently powerful discourse will simply be discarded In other words, if climate change is excluded from energy security, it will most likely be completely ignored rather than taken on board in some mysterious “separate” process Time Although Barton includes the dimension of time in his definition, it is helpful to stress its importance separately Typical households, especially in expanding economies such as China, Singapore, and India, will use more energy tomorrow than they did yesterday or a decade ago, in part because they are acquiring more appliances, automobiles, and other energy-greedy goods While 282 The competing dimension DI ST RI BU TI ON this form of “energy creep” occurs in developed countries as well, it is the developing world that is more rapidly accelerating their energy use, something often explained as Jevon’s Paradox.11 Unless there is a compensating improvement in the efficiency of their appliances, it will continue to push upwards per capita consumption, thereby putting further pressure on maintaining supplies By the same logic, some degree of backcasting would also be beneficial to see how some economies historically have grown faster than others Another aspect of the relationship between time and long-term security is the “system inertia” that results from large investments in generation plants, infrastructure, and building stock These facilities tend to have very long capital turnover periods Time also allows a convenient organizational tool in defining and categorizing energy security For example, energy security could address short-term factors (such as unexpected supply disruptions, price fluctuations, emergency storages, and alternative import routes), medium-term factors (such as affordability for industry and households, investments in infrastructure), and longer-term factors (such as, resource depletion, diversity, climate concerns) Despite the fact that time is an important ingredient in energy security, and that short- and long-term issues should be integrated, it is not clear whether such integration is possible Short-term security is usually caused by an emergency;12 long-term security can be debated and thought through systematically One step is to first distinguish between the two and then look at integration R Environmental quality T& F PR OO FS NO T FO Environmental quality as an element in energy security can be viewed from two perspectives One perspective is that conditions in the natural environment have impacts on the availability of energy For example, the availability of hydropower is diminished if there is less rain, less storage, or higher siltation Solar energy is affected by increased cloudiness and the angle of the sun in the sky Wind power is affected by turbulence and wind speeds Thermoelectric power plant operation is affected by increased temperatures in cooling waters In other words, energy production (conversion) is dependent on environmental goods just as other human activities are The other perspective is more akin to the fourth “A” of the “four As” mentioned above: acceptability In other words, in energy security we need to focus largely on energy-related impacts on the local, global, and regional environment How acceptable is it, for example, to damage the environment in order to meet our energy needs/demands? A balance must be attained among all three of the following: economic growth, energy generation/availability based on fuel mix, and environmental impact One benefit cannot be at the cost of another What is the balance among these three elements, for example, in the case of nuclear energy or renewable energy? Each option has varying applicability within economies depending upon the availability of fuel, the rate of increased energy demand, and the environmental implications of each choice Can Asian countries afford all types of technologies, can they absorb imported technologies, apply them and build on them successfully? Do they possess technological capability to decide what is appropriate? Technology has a crucial role to play Technology management is an important factor in energy security How will environmental concerns of energy security shift with different policy options? This line of inquiry becomes sharpest when considering whether the specific topic of “climate change” should be included in any definition of energy security Little agreement exists on this matter from one country to another, but there is essential agreement that there needs to be more consideration of environmental changes, social and behavioral considerations This is another way of saying that the emphasis of ongoing deliberations on energy security cannot rest solely on issues of infrastructure One way to assure the place of the environment in discussions of energy security is to 283 Martin J Pasqualetti ON put a price on the environmental impacts associated with an energy source Having taken this step, it will be a measure of the community’s acceptance of an energy source Sweden does this for its carbon emissions The discussion of the role of environmental quality in deliberations about energy security comes down to three fundamental questions: ST RI BU TI Do environmental impacts of energy systems affect energy security and if so how? Do other environmental factors (such as climate change) affect energy security and if so how? What are the analytic and policy benefits of considering environmental impacts of energy systems or environmental factors affecting energy security together with other energy security factors? Geographic variability PR OO FS NO T FO R DI Energy security in all its manifestations will vary from place to place Factors that are deemed important in one location will not necessarily be considered important in other locations For example, sea level rise from continued increases in greenhouse gases will be important in the Maldives but not for those who live in Nepal By some thinking, sea level rise is a climate change issue, not an energy security issue The heating/cooling question is a good geographic example, as the energy needs for someone living in the tropics are different from someone living in higher latitudes For someone living in Singapore, heating will not be as important as it is for someone living in northern China The amount of energy that is needed to maintain health will vary from place to place More important, measures taken to provide energy security in one location might well be at odds with measures taken to improve security in another This perspective covers such events as the usual competition for scarce resources, but it also includes decisions by transit countries (such as Ukraine) that might firm up their own supplies while jeopardizing continued supply to countries further along the pipeline As Georgia works to facilitate the use of its territory for natural gas transport, Ukraine’s leverage to influence gas supplies from Russia could decrease Another example might involve a country diversifying its oil suppliers with the result of reducing revenues once available from its former supply stalwarts to use for the protection of their oil fields The opposite effect might also occur For example, if individuals in Ukraine pilfer natural gas, parts of the EU might lose their supply when Russia cuts off supply in response What this can lead to is a shift in how energy security is achieved within a jurisdiction If natural gas becomes too problematic because of the annual tussle between Ukraine and Russia, a country may turn to other, more secure, sources that might not be acceptable in happier times Socio-economic variability T& F Socio-economic conditions affect individual sense of energy security from place to place For example, energy security in India might be on the order of the national average of 30 kW/ household/month In the US, in contrast, 30 kW is needed per day, on average Different people will have different sensitivities and preferences Some participants in Singapore questioned whether the underlying lifestyle patterns should be taken as given That is, are lifestyles sustainable in the long run, not only from environmental perspectives but also from sheer supply security perspectives This might be an issue of availability, accessibility, and affordability (three of the four ‘A’s) That is, is the energy available? If it is, can the community access it? If accessible, can the community afford it? 284 The competing dimension ST RI BU TI ON The importance of supply reliability will depend upon the critical nature of how the energy is used A sense of security and reliability will differ from one group to another as locations change One must address the difference between energy needs vs energy wants A person living in a rudimentary manner in the rainforests of New Guinea will have, in most cases, a lower level of energy reliability to provide customary security If such energy is not critical for survival or comfort for that person, supply on most days can be interrupted without consequence For someone on a ventilator in a hospital in Singapore, reliability is the key to survival itself Topics deserving more attention T& F PR OO FS NO T FO R DI Absent in Singapore was any discussion of education Once we have come to some conclusions about the meaning of energy security, the metrics of energy security, and the measures available to increase energy security, we will need an appropriate educational strategy for disseminating information and educating the public and policymakers It should be anticipated that this would be an iterative process That is, as people become more knowledgeable, the sophistication of the discussion can shift Indeed, education is important for the discussion of transition towards sustainability- and security-compatible lifestyles for rich population strata in OECD countries and non-OECD Asian countries alike In many places in Asia, as well as other regions of the world, the desire for large, centralized electricity generation requires extensive grids which are often too expensive to run to rural communities, the result being that the rural poor not get the same opportunities that those closer to the grid There is an interactive relationship between energy security and education that is particularly apparent in this situation, and it might be simpler to be promoting the benefits Figure 14.4 Phoenix, Arizona, and its surrounding suburbs hold a population of about million people Only two gasoline pipelines supply this isolated metropolis When one of those pipelines burst on July 30, 2003, motorists immediately began queuing at petrol stations, some people needing three hours to find the fuel they needed Photo by the author 285 Martin J Pasqualetti ST RI BU Areas of agreement TI ON of stand-alone renewable energy such as solar modules in such places In a broader context, education could be extended to “value formation in society.”13 In addition to education, another topic that did not figure in the discussions was the crucial role of technology Appropriate technology is a prerequisite for enabling energy security, especially as it affects such things as improving energy efficiency, reducing emissions, and opening up new resources for potential contribution T& F PR OO FS NO T FO R DI Energy security is a big and messy topic It is big because it involves every level from the individual to the entire globe It is messy because what it measures and any possible solutions that might be created must consider differences from group to group, from place to place, and from time to time How we evaluate it, measure it, increase it? These and other questions were discussed in Singapore It is not surprising the list of questions that came out of these discussions was longer than the list of answers Among the areas of agreement, developing definitions for the key terms and phrases, such as energy security, is critical; without this, meaningful discussion and decision are problematic The group settled upon that offered by Barton, with only minor dissent about whether to include climate change in the definition We also agreed that progress toward increasing security will be slow and undirected unless there is a matching of actions with self-identified themes of importance, even though the specifics will be different in different situations A third area of agreement was that nothing breeds suspicion like the lack of transparency This aphorism applies manyfold to energy security Despite the truth of this statement, transparency is often avoided for purposes of expediency or disinterest This suggests that, as in many other instances, the identification of measures to increase energy security should include, and often start with, a thorough understanding of what the public considers to be important This will be different at the individual level, the personal level, the family level Thus, it is essential to conduct systematic and statistically significant surveys to find out what the people think before we can embark on any path to remediation Although such public opinions will often be parochial and selfserving, there are few more important steps in moving toward the most effective course of action A fourth area of agreement was that greater energy security requires that energy sources should be secure, sustainable, and preferably environmentally benign Gaining energy security temporarily or while despoiling the environment is not acceptable Yet, this very trade-off is common at all socio-economic levels Poor, developing countries, for example, commonly fell trees for fuel, only to create accelerated erosion and crop failure Richer countries are willing to risk environmental havoc to secure more energy that would ostensibly improve energy security In the US, this has been most notable in the decades-long debate over oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.14 A fifth area of agreement was that achieving energy security must recognize the great variability that is inherent in the task In this vein, geographical diversity will continue to dominate discussion about energy security We must constantly remind ourselves that a sense of security and the opportunities and strategies to achieve it will vary from one place, one culture, and one location to another; that is, a single person’s sense of security will differ from that of another person for a multitude of reasons The goal of improving energy security will depend upon what is considered sufficient, although affordability creeps into this, as does accessibility What is sufficient for one nation may not be sufficient for another Per capita consumption of electricity in Asian countries is far lower than in Western countries This means that a single “fix” 286 The competing dimension F PR OO FS NO T FO R DI ST RI BU TI ON will never be applicable in every instance As there are different definitions of energy security for different groups, countries, and cultures, so too must there be different remedies and actions to increase that security from one circumstance to another One way to think about this is to consider energy efficiency and the development and availability of renewable energy, particularly distributed versions of such technologies, as plausible paths to greater energy security These two approaches have inherent appeal for certain societies Energy efficiency can be a useful strategy to achieve greater security for those people who use energy inefficiently, although this is far less available for people who are impoverished What is the motivation for the richer people? Probably, saving money, not security, but it could have a similar beneficial effect, assuming their actions not result in Jevon’s Paradox For impoverished people, whose minimal energy use provides little opportunity for improved security through greater efficiency, renewable energy can have a greater potential for increased energy security Take, for example, the case of simple farmers in the Petén of Guatemala Until recently, they had no electric lighting and no reliable source of illumination from liquid fuels The introduction of solar photovoltaic panels changed that social dynamic by providing electricity for nighttime lighting and the introduction of other low-energy appliances.15 Renewable energy development is also being touted as a partial solution to national energy security concerns,16 although its efficacy for that end is often questioned by those who advocate more conventional oil development.17 A sixth area of agreement was that we should develop a variety of metrics with consideration of diverse combinations of issues These issues, for example, might include: cultural differences T& Figure 14.5 Africa: The majority use for the world's wood is not for paper or as building material but as fuel, both for warmth and food preparation Five countries—Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, and Nigeria—account for about half the firewood and charcoal produced and consumed each year The supply of wood becomes less secure with each year's harvest This demand is stripping the land of its trees and increasing the potential for soil erosion and floods The problem stems from the lack of any alternative energy supplies Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Buying_fuelwood.jpeg Used with permission 287 Martin J Pasqualetti Recommendations TI ON (country by country), time, environmental quality, and how they would each be affected by different energy choices and policy decisions, quality of supply, social-behavioral considerations, and perceptions of risk In this regard we uncover the most important questions of energy security, namely: At what point people feel secure? How does energy security differ from actual security? What is energy security? ST RI BU As we continue to consider matters of energy security, in all its myriad manifestations, ingredients, and importance, there are several steps we can take that seem of paramount importance PR OO FS NO T FO R DI Develop an educational program that increases the level of understanding about energy security for decision-makers and the general public Currently, energy security is but a minor part of the public discourse in any country Avoid “particularism” that would lead to the consideration that there exist different concepts of energy security for industrialized vs developing countries, or for energy net exporters vs energy net importers As far as adequacy between energy demand and supply is concerned, it is possible to define a unique concept and implement it according to the specificity of each system In order to avoid confusion, the system must be well defined For example, the security of energy demand/supply adequacy, when considered as synonymous with energy security, is very different from the “vulnerability of the economy to energy crises.” However, the latter case may also be considered when dealing with energy security; in that case, the distinction (“energy net importer” vs “energy net exporter”) should be made Develop pathways (scenarios) to explain how societies can move from fossil dependence to non-fossil dependence over the next few decades Already there are indices for human development and environmental sustainability.18 Can these serve as references and is there a possibility of integrating them in our effort to develop an energy security index? Is not a holistic approach better than developing a stand-alone index? How will this be put to use other than ranking countries on a scale? Develop socio-economic conditions from country to country and place to place in order to have a direct bearing on energy security Among those conditions are: poverty, availability of supply, affordability, perceptions of security, social status, health, ethnicity, access (particularly to electricity), the rate of economic growth in a country and its impact on energy demand, quality of public governance, and the availability of finance for energy infrastructure T& F The Singapore Workshop lasted two days While the discussions were provocative and lively, it was clear at the end of the second day that we had only just started to nibble around the edges of some of the important questions that had brought us together We had not, in fact, arrived at a single metric or index, nor did it seem likely that one existed to be discovered We did succeed in producing an outline for further exploration and research, an endeavor represented in this chapter The workshop also succeeded in validating the notion that improving energy security will be expensive, complicated, and elusive, but also essential None who use energy can live without a hunger and need for such security; the achievement of sustainability, economic prosperity, and world order is impossible without it Whether in Asia, Africa, Europe, North or South America, we all need energy security It is the core principle of our individual and collective freedoms and survival 288 The competing dimension Notes T& F PR OO FS NO T FO R DI ST RI BU TI ON For more information see: (accessed August 28, 2010) International Energy Agency (IEA) 2001 Toward a Sustainable Energy Future (Paris: International Energy Agency) As discussed by Constantini, Valeria, Francesco Gracceva, Anil Markandya, and Giorgio Vicini 2007 “Security of Energy Supply: Comparing Scenarios from a European Perspective,” Energy Policy 35(1): 210–226: “A physical disruption can occur when an energy source is exhausted or production is stopped, temporarily or permanently Economic disruptions are caused by erratic fluctuations in the price of energy products on the world markets, which can be caused by a threat of a physical disruption of supplies … The instability of energy supplies may also cause serious social disruption Today, oil is vital for the functioning of the economy, and any disruption of supply is likely to lead to social demands, and possible social conflict Lastly, there are many environmental concerns about damage to the ecosystems caused by the energy chain, whether accidentally (oil spills, nuclear accidents, methane leaks) or as a result of polluting emissions (urban pollution and greenhouse gas emissions).” (emphasis added) Barton, Barry, Catherine Redgwell, Anita Ronne, and Donald N Zillman (eds) 2004 Energy Security: Managing Risk in a Dynamic Legal and Regulatory Environment (New York: Oxford University Press) World Commission on Environment and Development (WCED) 1987 Our Common Future (Oxford: Oxford University Press), p 43; European Commission (EC), 2000 Towards a European Strategy for the Security of Energy Supply, Green Paper, COM, 2000, 769 final (Brussels: European Commission) Hughes, Larry 2009 “The Four ‘R’s of Energy Security,” Energy Policy 37(6): 2459–2461 Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC) 2007 A Quest for Energy Security in the 21st Century (Tokyo: Institute of Energy Economics, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre) Available at: www ieej.or.jp/aperc (accessed August 28, 2010) Yergin, Daniel, 2006 “Ensuring Energy Security,” Foreign Affairs 85 (March/April): 69 However, this assumes that the suppliers have sufficient supplies to meet the requirements of the consumers For example, see http://dclh.electricalandcomputerengineering.dal.ca/enen/2009/ERG200911.pdf Hughes, Larry 2009 “Energy Wedges: A Systematic Way to Address Energy Security and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” A version of this paper was presented at the Fifth Dubrovnik Conference on Sustainable Development of Energy, Water, and Environment Systems in Dubrovnik, Croatia, September It is also available from http://dclh.electricalandcomputerengineering.dal.ca/enen/ (accessed December 16, 2009) 10 Sheth, Niki and Larry Hughes, 2009 “Quantifying Energy Security: An Analytic Hierarchy Process Approach.” Available at: http://dclh.electricalandcomputerengineering.dal.ca/enen/2009/ERG200906 pdf (accessed December 21, 2009) 11 Peart, Sandra, 1996 The Economics of W S Jevons (New York: Routledge); Yale University 2005 “2005 Environmental Sustainability Index Benchmarking National Environmental Stewardship,” Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy, Yale University, and Center for International Earth Science Information Network, Columbia University In collaboration with: World Economic Forum, Geneva, Switzerland, and Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Ispra, Italy Available at: http://www.yale.edu/esi/ (accessed December 18, 2009) 12 See Noland, Bob 2004 Saving Oil in a Hurry: Oil Demand Restraint in Transport (London: Centre for Transport Studies, Imperial College); and Hughes, “The Four ‘R’s of Energy Security,” pp 2459–2461 13 Hughes, “ The Four ‘R’s of Energy Security,” pp 2459–2461 14 Debate: “Oil Drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.” Available at: http://debatepedia idebate.org/en/index.php/Debate:Drilling_in_the_Arctic_National_Wildlife_Refuge (accessed April 10, 2010) 15 Matthew Taylor, personal communication, November 28, 2009 See also Taylor, M J 2005 “Electrifying Rural Guatemala: Central Policy and Rural Reality,” Environment and Planning C, 23 (2): 173–189 16 “The Pickens Plan.” Available at: http://www.pickensplan.com/act/ (accessed April 10, 2010) “Renewable Energy as a Driver to Ensure Security of Energy Supply for Europe.” Available at: (accessed April 10, 2010) 17 Shaw, Anup 2009 “Energy Security.” Available at: http://www.globalissues.org/article/595/energysecurity (accessed April 10, 2010) 18 Yale University 2005 “Environmental Sustainability Index Benchmarking National Environmental Stewardship.” Available at: http://www.yale.edu/esi/ESI2005_Main_Report.pdf (accessed April 10, 2010) 290 ... International Energy Agency, Clean Coal Centre Professor, University of Sussex Professor, University of Vermont Law School Professor of Renewable Energy, The Open University Professor, School of Geographical... We cannot expect energy security to be static over time or space For the “bottom two billion” of the world’s population, energy security is a matter of the minimum levels of energy services necessary... another way of saying that the emphasis of ongoing deliberations on energy security cannot rest solely on issues of infrastructure One way to assure the place of the environment in discussions of