Climate change adaptation in viet nam

MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT HCMC UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESS AND CONTROL ENGINEERING ACADEMIC ENGLISH ASSIGNMENT TOPIC CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION IN VIET NAM Professor : Dr LY CAM HUNG Student : NGUYEN N N QUYNH Student ID : 0250020074 Class : 02 DHQTTB HO CHI MINH CITY, 2016 Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT HCMC UNIVERSITY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROCESS AND CONTROL ENGINEERING ACADEMIC ENGLISH ASSIGNMENT TOPIC CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION IN VIET NAM Professor : Dr LY CAM HUNG Student : NGUYEN N N QUYNH Student ID : 0250020074 Class : 02 DHQTTB HO CHI MINH CITY, 2016 Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATION ii INTRODUCTION CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW GENERAL INFORMATION CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN VIET NAM CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREMES IN VIET NAM CLIMATE CHANGE IS TAKING PLACE FASTER THAN EXPECTED CHAPTER 2: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE IMPACTS ON INDUSTRY IMPACTS ON URBANIZATION CHAPTER 3: STRATEGY CHAPTER 4: BARRIERS AND LESSON LEARNED BARRIES LESSON LEARNED CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION 10 REFERENCES 11 i Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam ABBREVIATION GDP Gross domestic product UNFCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change NTP National Target Program for Climate Change IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment RCP Representative Concentration Pathways ADB Asian Development Bank GHG Greenhouse gas ii Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam INTRODUCTION According to medium greenhouse gas emission scenario, at the end of 21st century, Vietnam’s climate will change significantly The temperature will rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius in most parts of Viet Nam Experts say a temperature increase of degree Celsius may reduce the yield of rice by 10% and legumes by 5-20% The annual rainfall will rise in most parts of the country by 2-7%, the Central Highlands and south central provinces will receive precipitation of less than 3% The sea level will rise by 57-73 centimeters along the coast of Viet Nam The southernmost area including Ca Mau and Kien Giang provinces will see the highest sea level increase of 62-82 centimeters It’s calculated that a sea level rise of meter without proper coping measures will result in an approximate 6.3% submergence of Viet Nam’s land, directly affecting 16% of the country’s population In particular, the Mekong river delta will be worst afflicted with 39% of the land at risk of submergence, impacting 55% of population But this is not yet the worst scenario because it doesn’t include the gradual sinking of the land The delta land is extremely weak and constantly shrinking Statistics indicate that areas where mangrove forests have not recovered shrink 1.6 times faster than the nearby areas where mangrove forests remain intact Without proper coping measures, most of the Mekong river delta will be submerged for much of the year and the damage for the region is estimated at around 17 billion USD in 2030 It is one of the few plains most vulnerable to the rising sea level in the world Coping solutions such as growing mangrove forests to slow down the shrinking land are technically feasible But many measures to prevent floods, submergence, sanitization and drought in the 21st century are beyond the current capacity of Viet Nam Despite its difficulties, Viet Nam as a country responsibly engaged in global issues has actively worked with the international community to reach a global climate change agreement in 2015 to protect the earth, capping the global temperature increase at degrees Celsius in 2100 Viet Nam’s intended nationally determined contributions INDC report indicates that the country would cut its greenhouse gas emission by 8% by itself compared with its national development plan The reduction would reach as much as 25% if the country receives international support in various sectors Some key sectors include energy, agriculture and waste treatment Since the first UN summit on climate change in 1995, in spite of disagreements, the world have been working together to protect the green planet, VN is part of the course In recent years, international organizations have worked with VN to build policies in coping with climate change The “Support Program to Response to Climate change” is known as a prominent result of cooperation in climate change policy building between Viet Nam and development partners such as JICA, AFD, WB and CIDA Since 2009, the program has resulted in more than 200 policy actions and attracted financial support of more than billion USD from VN’S development partners Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam With support from the international community, Viet Nam has effectively implemented the national strategy and program to cope with climate change, actively performed its responsibilities as a member of the UN framework convention on climate change, reliably participated in international forums on climate change As one of the countries most heavily hit by climate change, more than 90 million people of Viet Nam are joining hands to protect their beautiful nation from extreme natural changes With its own efforts and support from the international community, Viet Nam through its INDC has reaffirmed its willingness to actively engage in global activities to cope with climate change and fulfill the UN framework convention on climate change Viet Nam believes that its intended contributions are fair, feasible and achievable Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW GENERAL INFORMATION Vietnam has the highest population density in Southeast Asia after Singapore, with a national average of 232 people/km2 and up to 1,000 people/km2 in the Northern Delta Since the country lies in the tropical cyclone belt, it is vulnerable to natural disasters, including typhoons, floods, droughts, saltwater intrusion and landslides According to the National Climate Change Strategy (2011), between 2001 and 2010 damage caused by such disasters resulted in 9,500 deaths and missing persons as well as the loss of approximately 1.5% of annual GDP The areas projected to suffer increased frequency and intensity of these disasters are largely those with already high levels of poverty At the 2007 13th Conference of Parties to the UNFCCC in Bali, Vietnam was recognized as one of the five countries likely to be most affected by the impacts of climate change Vietnam’s Mekong Delta is one of the world’s three most vulnerable deltas to sea level rise A long and exposed coastline, low lying river deltas and an economy that is still very much centered on natural resource based livelihoods all make Vietnam one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change Gradual changes such as sea level rise and higher temperatures, more extreme weather such as foods and drought, and more intense typhoons are all predicted and will have a potentially devastating impact on the country’s people and economy The Government of Vietnam is taking the issue of climate change seriously leading national efforts to mitigate disaster risks and climate change through a National Strategy for Disaster Prevention and a National Target Program for Climate Change (NTP) However, as the 2007 IPCC report stressed, it is poor people within developing countries who are most at risk from climate change Despite the economic boom of recent years, there are still significant numbers of poor men and women living in areas of Vietnam particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change The annual average temperature of Vietnam has increased about 0.7oC in the last 50 years; sea level has increased about 20cm in the same time El-Nino and La-Nina have seriously impacted Vietnam Climate change has made natural disasters, especially storms, floods, and droughts, become increasingly severe It is predicted that the average temperature will increase by 3oC and the average sea level of Vietnam will increase by 1m at the year 2010 According to the World Bank (2007), Vietnam is among the countries which are hardest hit by climate change and sea level rise Mekong and Red rivers’ delta are projected to be the most seriously inundated With sea level rise of meter, about 10% of the population would be directly affected and lost of GDP would be about 10% Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam About 40.000km2 of the coastal deltas are inundated every year, in which, about 90% of the Mekong River delta is almost completely inundated If sea level rises by meters, about 25% of the population would be directly affected with GDP lost of about 25% Climate change impacts to Vietnam are considered to be serious It is obviously a challenge to the cause of hunger eradication and poverty reduction, the implementation of millennium development goals, and the country’s sustainable development Sectors, areas, and localities vulnerable to climate change are defined as Water resources, Agriculture and Food Security, Public Health, Deltas and coastal areas The Government of Vietnam, with a clear vision on climate change impacts, early ratified the United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol In summary the variability of the climate, particularly extremes resulting in climate-related disasters such as foods, droughts, and typhoons is a fundamental cause of poverty in Vietnam Poor people, who have limited coping capacity to current climate variability, may be pushed beyond this coping range if faced with more severe variations or with future climate change impacts Climate change is likely to worsen poverty and hinder Vietnam’s efforts to achieve its development objectives CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN VIET NAM Climate change and sea level rise scenarios developed for Vietnam are based on different greenhouse gas emission scenarios of IPCC’s 4th report (IPCC 2007),namely a low scenario (B1), medium scenarios (B2, A1B), and scenarios of the high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission (A2, A1FI).Climate change scenarios for temperature and precipitation are developed for seven climate regions in Vietnam: North West, North East, Northern Delta, North Central Region, South Central Region, Central Highlands, and Southern Region Temperatures at the end of 21st century in Vietnam (MONRE 2012a, b)     Low emission scenario (B1): annual average temperature increases by 1.6–2.2 °C Medium emission scenario (B2): annual average temperature increases by 2–3 °C High emission scenario (A2, A1F1): annual average temperature increases by 2.5–3.7 °C Precipitation at the end of 21st century in Vietnam (MONRE 2012a, b)  Low emission scenario (B1): annual precipitation increases 2–6 %  Medium emission scenario (B2): annual precipitation increases 2–7 %  High emission scenario (A2, A1F1): annual precipitation increases 2–10 % Sea level rise at the end of 21st century in Vietnam (MONRE 2012a, b)  Low emission scenario (B1): average sea level may increase by 49–64 cm  Medium emission scenario (B2): average sea level may increase by 57–73 cm Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam  High emission scenario (A2, A1FI): average sea level may increase by 78–95 cm CLIMATE CHANGE EXTREMES IN VIET NAM By the end of the 21st century, the number of days with maximum temperature of over 350 °C increases from 15 to 30 days in almost all regions in the country based on the medium emission scenario A1B (MONRE 2012a, b) In the future, the general trend is that the maximum daily precipitation increases in the North West, North East, Red River Delta and North Central Regions, and decrease in the South Central Coastal, Central Highlands, and the South Regions (MONRE 2012a, b) The updating of such climate change and sea level rise scenarios has been determined in the national strategy on climate change and in order to provide the most updated information about behavior, tendency of climate change in the past and the climate change and sea level rise scenarios in the 21st century in Vietnam Vietnam built the first climate change scenarios in 2009 and updated it for the second time in 2012 and for the third time in 2015 CLIMATE CHANGE IS TAKING PLACE FASTER THAN EXPECTED A comparison between the 2012 and 2015 scenarios shows that climate change has been taking place faster For example, according to 2015 scenarios, under the medium emissions scenario (RCP 4.5), average temperature rise is from 1.3 to 1.7oC in middle 21st century; from 1.7 to 2.4oC at the end of the century This rise is much lower than forecast level in 2012 (maximum temperature rise of 3oC) Nevertheless, under the high emission scenario (RCP8.5), temperature rise at the end of 21st century is expected to reach 4oC, while the forecast in 2012 is only 3.7oC The rainfall indicator differs strongly between the climate change scenario in 2012 and in 2015 Rainfall increase, as forecast in 2012, is 2-10% but now the scientists project it to be 515% High rainfall increases in rain season while in dry season, rainfall tends to decrease Hence, drought and floods would become more complicated Based on actual situation as well as advanced calculation models, the sea level rise estimated for 2015 also differs from what is forecast in 2012 According to the recent publications, at average emissions level, at the end of 21st century, the maximum sea level will be 83 cm (1cm higher than the 2012 scenario) Under the high emissions, sea level would increase up to 107cm (2cm higher than 2012 scenario) Most importantly, according to the 2014 flood map, the flooding area is larger than 2012 forecast figure For example, if sea level rises by 1m, about 17.57% area of Red river delta would be submerged (2012 scenario: 10%), 1.47% area of coastal central provinces from Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam Thanh Hoa to Binh Thuan province (2012 scenario: 2.5%), 17.84% the area of Ho Chi Minh city and 4.79% area of Ba Ria Vung Tau would be submerged Mekong river delta is highly prone to flooding (39.40% of area), of which Kien Giang province Kien Giang is the most likely to be flooded (75% of area) Islands subject to flooding include Van Don Islands, Con Dao islands, and Phu Quoc Island The risk of flooding for natural islands in Truong Sa archipelago is minimum Hoang Sa archipelago is more likely to be flooded, particularly Luoi Liem and Tri Ton islands CHAPTER 2: IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER RESOURCES Viet Nam is located in the down streams of two major international rivers: the Mekong and Red Rivers The area of Mekong river basin is about 795,000 km2 while its annual water runoff to the East Sea is 505 billion m3 The Red River has a basin of 169,000 km2 in area; annually transporting to the East Sea 138 billion m3 of water The impacts of climate change on water run-off from the Red and Mekong Rivers will be as follows: Compared with the present, by the decade 2070, annual runoff is projected to increase within the range of +5.8 to 19.0% for Red River and from +4.2 to 14.5% for Mekong River, low-flow changes are likely to be in the range of -10.3 – 14.5% for the Red River and -2.0 – 24.0% for Mekong River while food-top discharge will likely change within the range of +12.0 – 5.0% for the Red River and +15.0 – 7% for Mekong River In summary, in both rivers, the decline in annual run-off is likely to be higher for low-flow, and surplus in annual run-of is likely to be higher for food-top discharge In medium and small rivers, annual run-off would likely reduce or increase by a similar or higher amount IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE With the projected warming of the country, the adaptation time of tropical crops will be extended As estimated, the allocation of vegetation is likely to change as follows: The planting boundary of tropical trees crops would move towards higher mountainous regions and northwards On the other hand, the adaptation area of subtropical plants would become narrower By the 2070s, the mountainous tropical trees would be able to grow at an altitude 100-550 meters higher and move 100-200 km northwards in comparison with the present Due to abnormal changes in rainfall intensity, food inundation and droughts would occur more frequently Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam Significant cultivation areas in the Mekong and North Deltas would be affected by salt water intrusion due to sea level rise IMPACTS ON INDUSTRY A recent study suggests that if Viet Nam experiences a meter rise in sea level, manufacturing enterprises in 20 provinces would be inundated Most provinces with large numbers of firms affected are in the Mekong River Delta and southeast regions, which contribute 56% of national industrial production by value In Long An Province, 100 enterprises would be inundated Close to 500 large and mediumsized enterprises would be affected in Ho Chi Minh City Many of the 24,000 small manufacturing enterprises operating in the city would also be affected; most are located in areas that are already vulnerable to inundation Ho Chi Minh City has 16 industrial estates that would be affected; of them would be inundated and the others would be within reach of storm surges In the southeast region overall, 55 industrial estates would either be inundated or at high risk of disruption due to storm surges and other impacts related to sealevel rise (Carew-Reid 2007) The same study points out that damage to industrial enterprises and estates is critical with respect to lost production, property, and revenue, as well as toxic contamination There are many seriously polluted areas, including land areas, lakes, ponds, and river beds and banks, where concentrations have accumulated over many years The implications for fisheries, water quality, and public health of having contaminated sites inundated due to sea-level rise and storm surges have not been analyzed but are likely to lead to substantial economic and social impacts (International Center for Environmental Management 2007a) IMPACTS ON URBANIZATION Climate change and environmental degradation will impact urban development The ADB Ho Chi Minh City Adaptation to Climate Change study analyzed climate impacts on Ho Chi Minh City, where half of the land area is less than m above sea level (ADB 2010) Te rapid urbanization of low-lying areas will increase the amount of assets at risk from extreme events This is of national concern as Ho Chi Minh City accounts for 23% of Viet Nam’s total GDP Urbanization and infrastructure projects will be increasingly disrupted by inundation in low-lying areas as hard surfaces proliferate, reducing infiltration Effective management of runoff during higher intensity inundation events will become a more pressing issue The urban poor will be increasingly vulnerable to extreme events because they live in areas most at risk typically along canals and riverbanks, and in swampy coastal lands Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam CHAPTER 3: STRATEGY Strategic objectives are to assess climate change impacts on sectors and regions in specific periods and to develop feasible action plans to effectively respond to climate change in the short and long-term to ensure sustainable development of Viet Nam, to take opportunities to develop towards a low-carbon economy, and to join the international community’s efforts in mitigating climate change and protecting the climatic system  Identify the extent of climate change and assess climate change impacts on every sector, area and locality  Identify measures to respond to climate change  Promote scientific and technological activities to respond to climate change  Enhance the organizational structure, institutional capacity and the development and implementation of policies  Enhance public awareness and develop human resources  Integrate climate change issues into socio-economic, sectoral and local development strategies, plans and planning  Promote international cooperation  Develop and implement action plans of all ministries, sectors and localities to respond to climate change  Develop and implement projects This is one of the recommendations by scientists working on the updating of climate change and sea level rise scenarios for Vietnam in 2015 According to scientists, climate change and sea level rise scenarios show some uncertainties as they depend on the determination of GHG concentration scenarios, limited knowledge about global and regional climate systems, ice melting and methods used in developing scenarios Thus, the scenarios shall be frequently updated Ministries, sectors and localities developing and implementing climate change response measures shall not necessarily be in mass implementation It is necessary to implement by phases; determine priority level based on actual needs, available resources in each phase to select the most appropriate scenarios Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam CHAPTER 4: BARRIERS AND LESSON LEARNED BARRIES Lacks qualitative data for future climate change prediction No specific guidance on the integration of climate change into socio-economic development strategies, planning processes and plans Insufficient legal regulations, which require climate change integration as a compelling step the process of developing socio-economic development strategies, planning processes and planet national, sectoral and local levels; Limited capacity for integrating climate change into development strategies, planning processes and plans at national, sectoral and local levels; Insufficient resources (personnel, time and finance) for implementing climate change integration into development strategies, planning processes and plans at national, sectoral and local levels ; Development plans need a lot of detailed information on climate change However, the model only can predict several factors with uncertainty The projection of climate extreme values is more difficult than that of the average values; Sometimes the detailed level of spatial and temporal aspects of the climate change scenario is not sufficient for the development plans; The project needs detailed data at the local level; however, the climate change scenarios could not meet that requirement LESSON LEARNED Coordination among ministries and sectors : Synergies of adaptation measures to optimize use of resources Regional Planning ( multiple provinces )     Overlap of planning leads to inefficient use of resource Lack of mechanism to cooperate among provinces; Weakness in managing and implementing regional plan Adaptation measures are only considered local benefits but ignored impacts at regional scope; leads to increasing risk of disaster at different places in its region Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam CHAPTER 5: CONCLUSION Climate change has a clear impact on all sectors including economic, social and human health Increasingly erratic and variable rainfall, higher temperatures, more intense extreme weather events like typhoons, droughts and heavy rainfall causing floods, and the rising sea level will all have significant impacts across sectors, regions, and income groups, and particularly on livelihood security of the poorest rural people Recently, the government has promoted the national climate change adaption framework which emphasizes the role of all sectors to combat the adverse impact of climate change from a large scale to local activities The local people are aware that they should start to adapt to the gradual change (different climate change scenarios) of environment themselves with the change in crop selection to such a shortened length of growing season, shifting the time for planting and harvesting to deal with the environment uncertainty From the scientific point of view, fundamental researches need to be invested adequately such as breeding of new varieties which could tolerate salinized soil or resistant varieties against diseases, or modification of fertilization to reduce nutrient loss from which those initiatives will be applied on specific ecological zone to maximize the productivity and reduce the loss Meeting the challenges of the uncertainty of such environmental changes needs to have good human resources, therefore, capacity building in the field of environmental assessment, climate change, natural resources management and related field need to be promoted at an earlier stage of education as well as other levels This will help build a strong network for those who will handle the role of planning and decision making related to climate change adaption and environmental policies 10 Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam REFERENCES PhD Le Minh Nhat, 2013, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Efforts in Vietnam Tran Hong Thai, 2013, Climate change adaptation in Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment , 2009, Climate change scenario, sea level rise for Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment , 2007, National target program to respond to climate change 11 Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh Climate change adaptation in Viet Nam ... 2013, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Efforts in Vietnam Tran Hong Thai, 2013, Climate change adaptation in Vietnam Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment , 2009, Climate change scenario,... the 21st century in Vietnam Vietnam built the first climate change scenarios in 2009 and updated it for the second time in 2012 and for the third time in 2015 CLIMATE CHANGE IS TAKING PLACE FASTER... on climate change, reliably participated in international forums on climate change As one of the countries most heavily hit by climate change, more than 90 million people of Viet Nam are joining