Scenarios for vietnam education on the way of building a lifelong learning system

Scenarios for Vietnam education on the way of building a lifelong learning system Pham Do Nhat Tien Abstract Building a lifelong learning (LLL) system is an indispensable trend on the way of moving forward of Vietnam education With the actual status of Vietnam education, at least ten to fifteen years of continuous efforts from the state, the education sector, and the whole society are needed so that a genuine LLL system will be created During that period, strong and unpredicted impacts of socio-economic factors will be able to turn aside the trajectory of Vietnam education Using the scenario approach, this paper is a rudimentary attempt to present some possible scenarios for LLL development in Vietnam in view of helping policy makers to call attention to different LLL futures and to think outside the box Introduction A LLL system is an education system in which the policy/idea of LLL becomes a reality As such, a LLL system encompasses learning from early childhood to post- retirement; includes formal learning, non-formal learning and informal learning; and requires democratic participation as well as responsibility of the individual, civil sector, and employment world To be successful in building a genuine LLL system, a paradigm shift in education development is required That is the shift from the traditional education system to the LLL one However, it is a difficult shift with many obstacles in view of the actual status of Vietnam education The analysis of those obstacles has already been presented in a previous paper (Pham 2009) Due to these obstacles, the move from the traditional education system to that of LLL proceeds slowly Building a LLL system is a trend and a goal of every education system in the world Actually, there are not yet performance indicators to rank the position of each country on the route towards LLL1 However, developed countries as well as many developing countries in the region have achieved important initial steps related to theoretical basis and legal framework for LLL development Implementation has also been carried out from restructuring of the education system, new development of curriculum, improvement of the quality assurance system, to renovation of governance, administration and financing Where is Vietnam on that movement? Unfortunately, although many have already been declared on LLL in Vietnam, we are still attached to the traditional model in terms of theoretical, legal, and practical framework The idea of building a LLL system has just been launched only by 2006 when the 10th Congress of Vietnam Communist Party (VNCP) gave the following directive for education development: ‘To gradually shift the actual education model to that of open education ─ the model of a learning society with LLL system, continuing training, and connecting all levels and sectors of learning ─; to build and develop systems of learning for all and flexible modes of learning and practising, responding the needs of permanent learning; and to create different possibilities and opportunities for learners, ensuring social equity in education’ (VNCP 2006: 95) One year later, after the entry of Vietnam into WTO, it was decided at the highest level to develop an overall plan for education reform in view of successfully responding to opportunities and challenges in the context of deep and broad international integration (VNCP 2007) It seems evident that such a reform will be oriented to build a model of learning society with LLL system That is we shall witness a paradigm shift from the existing education system to a genuine LLL system Of course, there is still a long way to go before reaching that goal There is not yet any study as well as any directive about how long the actual Vietnamese education system will be truly a LLL one However, based on the vision and goal of building a learning society in Vietnam (The Government 2001; 2005), and compared to international experiences (See for example Ahmed 2009; EU 2003; Republic of Korea 2007), at least ten to fifteen years of continuous efforts from the state, the education sector, and the whole society are needed so that the shift to LLL system will be successful During that period, what will be the impact of socio-economic factors to the trajectory of Vietnam education? In the context of a rapidly changing and unpredictable world as our present world, the study of such an impact to shed light on education futures is an urgent task in policy development (See for example Keri 2009; The Millennium Project 2009; Stephan 2004) In fact, from 2006, the Canadian Council of Learning has already developed the Composite Learning Index (CLI) to measure Canada and its more than 4500 community’s progress in LLL Inspired by that approach, by August 2010, the European Lifelong Learning Indicators (ELLI) Index for the EU has been achieved in view of assessing the state of LLL in the 27 EU member states Actually there are many approaches in the study of education futures The common point of these approaches is to consider the future as uncertain, no one can predict the future, but one can look forward to a range of possible futures For policy makers and educational administrators the question is which of these possible futures are the most desirable for Vietnam LLL development In this paper, the OECD scenario approach (CERI 2007) is used to illuminate what is possible for Vietnam education in its trend of moving towards a LLL system The impact of socio-economic factors will be analysed in section On that basis, in section some possible futures related to the formation of LLL system in Vietnam will be presented The conclusion in section will suggest refinement of the study in view of obtaining robust scenarios so that they will form a sound basis for strategic development and policy making in building a LLL system in Vietnam Impact of socio-economic factors According to OECD Center for Educational Research and Innovation (CERI 2008), trends shaping education can be classified into four major trends: 1/ demographic trends such as increase in population, ageing population, mobility, living conditions; 2/ economic trends such as growth model, labour structure, employability; 3/ ICT trends related to digital technology, learning society; 4/ political and societal trends such as role of the government, family and society environment, sustainable development Adapting these trends to Vietnam concrete conditions, we can discern the following: 1/ formation of the golden stage of Vietnam population; 2/ paradigm shift of the economic growth model; 3/ increased impact of ICT development and application; 4/ trends in education market formation; 5/ role of the state and the civil society 2.1 Formation of the golden stage of Vietnam population While developed countries are facing challenges of an ageing population, Vietnam is benefiting opportunities of the golden stage of its population, according to which corresponding to two people in the working age there is only one dependent people This stage will last for about 30 years, offering our country a big opportunity for development owing to an abundant and young labour force Whether this opportunity will turn into reality depends chiefly on the quality of the labour force However, if we take the technical and vocational level as measure of the labour force quality, then the 2009 population census showed a big challenge: 86.6% of the population above 15 years old, that is about 55.6 million people, have not yet received professional training and remained unskilled (Central Steering Committee for Population and Housing Census 2009) Building a LLL system requires therefore restructuring the actual education and training system so as besides meeting the educational needs of 22 millions formal students, it has to respond effectively to the training needs of the above-mentioned 55.6 million people This places education in face of the traditional problem of quantity versus quality, but at a higher level of complexity than before 2.2 Shift of the economic growth model Entering the new stage of development, Vietnam needs to change its growth model and to restructure the economy It is stipulated in the Socio-Economic Strategic Plan for 2011-2020 that: ‘Vietnam has to shift from the growth model based chiefly on extensive development to that of rationalisation between extensive and intensive development’ As such, Vietnam will gradually give up the advantage of cheap labour to promote that of professional human resources Rapidly developing human resources, especially high quality human resources, is now a strategic breakthrough in development This entails a corresponding paradigm shift in education development model The traditional learning model which has already contributed actively to the previous economic growth model, is now considered as an obstacle to socio-economic development in this new stage, and therefore needed to be replaced by a new one, that of LLL learning 2.3 Increased impact of ICT development and application The ICT revolution differs from all other previous technological revolutions in that it is so strong and broad that to penetrate the living of everyone, everywhere, and at any time We are witnessing new generations of computers which are faster, smaller, cheaper, stronger, with an expanding world wide web, progressing towards web 2.0 in which Internet users not passively download information more but participate actively in the creation of new content, ranging from the creation of a personal blog, sharing ideas within social networks like Facebook, to the creation of an on-line encyclopaedia (Wikipedia) Education has already carried out its first move towards computerisation of teaching, learning, and school management However, the digital revolution is raising a lot of questions related to a radical change of teaching and learning, ranging from curriculum content to teacher role, school organisation, educational networks for LLL, etc…In these last few years, access to Internet connection has been successfully implemented at all educational institutions in Vietnam ICT application is strongly encouraged; however the overall picture is still standing with the introduction of computers into the learning setting Even compared to countries in the region, for example Malaysia with its program of developing electronic schools in the whole country, Vietnam seems to be still embarrassed on its way of educational modernisation based on ICT infrastructure development It is therefore urgent to carry out studies and then make decisions so that the new educational development model takes advantage of the full potential which ICT revolution will bring in educational organisation and operation, especially in LLL 2.4 Trends in education market formation Almost everywhere in the world, the notion of education market is strongly objected by people in the education sector as well as the civil society However, education market was already a reality by the end of the 1980s in some countries such as USA, UK, Australia, Chile, and New Zealand With the approval of the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) in 1995, WTO officially recognised the education market and laid down a regulatory framework so that it became an international one In Vietnam, even before the entry into WTO, with the issuance of Decree Nr 06/2000/ND-CP regulating the establishment of for-profit foreign educational institutions in Vietnam, and the issuance of Resolution Nr 05/2005/NQ-CP recognising the for-profit mechanism in operation of non public schools in Vietnam, we have implicitly opened the door for the entrance of market into some segment of education With GATS commitment, we have officially agreed for foreign investors to have market access in professional, tertiary, and adult education Therefore, an education market is being emerged, it is actually still precarious but able to grow strongly in future in line with LLL system development The point is that instead of refuting it, it is necessary to recognise its reality in view of trying to manage it, regulate it, and bring into play its positive effects Some studies in the world consider it only as a quasi-market In China, it is called as state-oriented market Our studies related to education market are still petty, unsystematic, and unprofessional We have not yet developed any policy and institutional framework vis-à-vis the education market Yet, when starting the renovation process in our country with the shift from centralised economy to socialist-oriented market economy, our primary important task is to build an institutional framework for that economy Until now, the task of improving the institutional framework for socialist-oriented market economy is still a key one in development orientation From that viewpoint, institutionalising the education market in Vietnam may be considered as an urgent task in view of laying down a legal framework for a successful development of education towards LLL system building in a more complicated context 2.5 Role of the state and the civil society It is stipulated in the Vietnam Education Law that: ‘The State shall give priority to the investment for education…The State budget shall play a key role in the total resources invested in education’ (National Assembly 2005: Article 13) In other words, in Vietnam the State remains the big patron responsible in conducting education development However, the state budget cannot keep in pace with education development Limiting only within the traditional learning model, Vietnam education is always facing the big contradiction between educational development high objectives and poor financial resources This contradiction will become more critical during the shift to LLL system when the problem of quantity versus quality does not limit more to the school age but includes also the working age The actually agreed solution for overcoming that contradiction is promoting social participation to education Basically, that is the formation of a flexible and efficient public-private partnership, in which the State takes main responsibility in financing compulsory education, assuring social equity in education, and supporting other fields of education This partnership requires a wise treatment of interest in education development between three sectors: the State, the market, and the civil society The State makes every effort in assuring education as a public good, the market attempts to treat education as a private good, and the civil society endeavours to contribute to education development on a non-profit basis In Vietnam, although the civil society is still young, but its role in education is growing stronger and stronger, ranging from resources contribution to social defence, participation to decision-making process, and policy supervision In the context of education market formation and development in line with the implementation of GATS commitment in education, the enhancement of the role of the State and the civil society will have an important impact on the shaping of LLL system in Vietnam Possible scenarios for LLL system in Vietnam 3.1 Opportunities and challenges The impact of the above-mentioned factors leads basically to the creation of opportunities and challenges Taking advantage of the opportunities and overcoming challenges play key role in decision making for shaping LLL system in the future Therefore it is necessary to list opportunities and challenges as follow: Nr Opportunities Challenges Entrance to the golden stage of population The problem of quantity versus quality becomes critical Shift from the extensive economic growth model to the intensive one A new model of education development in accordance with the new economic growth model is needed Theoretically, ICT application to educational organisation and operation is strongly encouraged Practically, ICT application in education is lagging behind compared to countries in the region and the world Vietnam entry into WTO and GATS commitment in education may open new opportunities for education development The issue of education market is chiefly got round and has not yet been considered satisfactory The State plays a key role in providing resources for education development A dynamic balance of interests between three sectors – the State, the market, and the civil sector – is needed for LLL system development The civil society is playing more and more active role in education development, ranging from resource contribution to social defence and policy supervision The civil society in Vietnam is still young and limited in financial contribution to LLL system development 3.2 The scenario approach What will be the LLL system in future depends on the policy making and implementation so that positive effects of the socio-economic factors are brought into play In the worst case, if challenges are not overcome then the future educational picture will be similar to the existing one, and education go on lagging behind compared to economic development of the country and to other advanced education systems in the world In the best case, if opportunities are fully exploited, then Vietnam education will truly shift to a new stage of development with its genuine LLL system, thus playing as a driving force and breakthrough for socio-economic development In reality, a complex interplay of opportunities and challenges will lead Vietnam education to some middle position To explore the futures of education, the scenario approach is usually used as an appropriate tool for reflection In this approach, both logic and imagination are used to provide ‘outcome-based’ snapshots of the future, many of which might be left unnoticed in the extrapolation-based traditional approach Therefore, with the scenario approach, one can overcome the familiar shortcoming which is extrapolation in the process of strategy development However, scenarios are not predictions for strategy development They are only descriptive of possible futures in view of opening minds to consider new possibilities, and therefore stimulating policy debate before coming to strategic decision Theoretically, one can generate an infinite variety of scenarios However, for the sake of simplicity and for a good selection of possible futures, education is usually represented as a two-dimension space The identification of these dimensions depends on the aim of the study For example, for the construction of scenarios for LLL development in Europe, the European Center for the Development and Vocational Training (CEDEFOP) distinguished between three contextual environments for training (Sellin 2002) They were respectively ‘the economy and technology’, ‘employment and the labour market’, and ‘training, skills and knowledge’ Each contextual environment was characterised by two appropriate dimensions, on that basis four sets of provisional scenarios were proposed and analysed, facilitating the process of strategy formation for vocational education and LLL in Europe 3.3 Proposed scenario approach for LLL system in Vietnam With the socio-economic trends as analysed in section 2, we can distinguish different contextual environments for scenario development similar to the approach carried out by CEDEFOP Within the limitation of this paper, in view of a preliminary exploration of some possible futures, we shall introduce only one contextual environment, which is ‘the economy and technology’ Hence, the two dimensions will be: 1/ model of educational delivery (or the economic dimension); 2/ model of educational organisation (or the technological dimension) Along dimension 1, the direction of educational delivery moves from the quasi-monopoly model to that of quasi-market The quasi-monopoly model is the one in which besides the key role of the State in education delivery, there is also the participation of organisations and individuals, but there is not yet competition If the competition mechanism is created and activated, then it is the quasi-market model Along dimension 2, the direction of educational organisation in technological terms moves from the traditional model to that of computerisation Increased application of ICT will be the main driving force in this move Of course, this will be a gradual move from little computerisation to comprehensive computerisation, starting with the introduction of computers and Internet connection in the learning setting as we are now doing, then carrying out the formation of electronic schools, exploitation of open source software, facilitating e-learning, m-learning, developing educational networks so that everyone can learn, everywhere, every time This produces the four scenarios in the following matrix: Little computerisation in education organisation Comprehensive computerisation in education organisation Quasi-monopoly model in education delivery Quasi-market model in education delivery Sc1 Offer does not meet demand in LLL Persistent difficulties in connectivity and streaming Formal education remains the first choice Non formal education is still left behind Informal education is not yet considered No satisfactory solution for the quantity versus quality issue Halfway formation of the LLL system Sc2 Some progress in meeting education demands Opportunities for learners in choice for where and how to learn Linkage between training market and labour market Positive change in education quality due to competition Formation of a LLL system with risks related to inequity, brain drain, and fraud in education Sc3 Basic changes in education system structure, institutional network, method of teaching and learning Increased access in LLL can be met Difficulty in implementation of the model due to big demands in financial resources, advanced ICT infrastructure, and modern management Trade-off between quantity and quality Slow and unsustainable formation of the LLL system Sc4 The LLL system is a whole societal network with strong linkage between education institutions, research organisations, and enterprises Competitive mechanism and technology progress create diversification in education organisation and activities Financial resources are mobilised strongly from the civil society and market Faster formation of the LLL system with risks related to inequity and fraud in education 3.4 Scenario choice Actually, the Vietnam education system corresponds to scenario 1, according to which the education provision is quasi-monopoly, and the educational organisation is still the traditional one with little computerisation According to the above-mentioned four scenarios, we can explore different options for Vietnam education futures on its way of building a LLL system, either keeping its status quo as in scenario 1, or shifting to other scenario, may be scenario 2, 3, 4, or something in the middle With the actual manifestation of Vietnam education, its trend seems to move to scenario with the introduction of competitive mechanism in educational activities The modern education model with comprehensive computerisation has not yet received any significant stimulus in policy setting as well as in scientific research This may be linked to different obstacles related to the awareness, the management ability, and the capacity of implementing the computerisation policy of different authorities in Vietnam Among which, the most critical one is that until now the restructuring of the education system towards a LLL system has never been put in the agenda of educational policy-makers, even when the policy of building a LLL system has already been stipulated in the Resolution of the 10th VNCP Congress In the next decades, when human resources training are considered as a strategic breakthrough in development, it is imperative to shift Vietnam education system from the traditional model to that of comprehensive computerisation in order to open effective ways in solving the problem of quantity versus quality in LLL system development Therefore, the move to scenario or is needed However, taking into account the formation and development of education quasi-market in Vietnam, it will be desirable and practical to move to scenario 4, which is enhancing both the strength of market mechanism and benefits of ICT revolution Conclusion The aim of this paper is to use the scenario approach in an attempt to explore some preliminary possible futures for LLL system development in Vietnam over the next 10 to 15 years This is of course a rudimentary attempt since to have reliable and robust scenarios the methodology requires a systematic development process, involving as many stakeholders as possible, with large amounts of quantified data (Jonas 2004) Therefore, scenarios presented in this paper should be considered only as exploratory in view of helping policy makers to call attention to different LLL futures and to think outside the box However, from scenarios analysis, we can deduce the following remarks: 1/ No genuine LLL system can be achieved under the present rigid financial mechanism and backward educational organisation; 2/ New drivers in LLL system development, namely the market mechanism and ICT advance, have to be considered and enhanced actively Of course, once well-designed, robust scenarios are created on basis of thorough analysis of trends in education, the socio-economic environment and the international context, we are able to discover unexpected realms of the possible future, thus enabling In the 16th draft dated April 27, 2010 of the Vietnam Education Strategic Development for 2011-2020, it is stipulated that: ‘the development of educational services and enhancement of healthy competition within the education system is among the driving forces for education development’ policy-makers to have solid and fruitful backgrounds for LLL system strategic development References Ahmed, M (2009) The state and development of adult learning and education in Asia and the Pacific, Hamburg: UNESCO Institute for lifelong learning Central Steering Committee for population and housing census (2009) Report on the findings of the sample survey related to population and housing general census on April 1, 2009 (in Vietnamese) CERI (2007) The starter pack: Futures thinking in action OECD Schooling for Tomorrow Series, Paris: OECD CERI (2008) Trends shaping education, Paris: OECD European Commission (2003) Implementing lifelong learning strategies in Europe: Progress report on the follow-up to the Council resolution of 2002, Brussels: EU Jonas Svava Iverson (2004) Futures thinking methodologies - options relevant for ‘Schooling for tomorrow’, Danish Technological Institute Keri Facer (2009) Educational, social and technological futures: a report from The Beyond Current Horizons Programme Retrieved from http://www.beyondcurrenthorizons.org.uk National Assembly (2005) Education Law, Hanoi: National Politics Publishing House Pham, D.N.T (2009) Obstacles to lifelong learning in Vietnam and some suggested solutions Paper presented at the ASEM LLL Conference: ‘Increasing opportunities and removing obstacles to lifelong learning’, 29-30 October 2009, Nha Trang City, Vietnam Republic of Korea (2007) Second national lifelong learning promotion plan (2008-2012), Seoul: Ministry of education, science and technology Sellin, B (2002) Scenarios and strategies for vocational training and lifelong learning in Europe Summary of findings and conclusions of the joint Cedefop/ETF project (19982002), Luxembourg: Office for official publications of the European Communities Stephan Vincent-Lancrin (2004) Building futures scenarios for universities and higher education: an international approach, Policy Futures in Education, 2, 245-263 The Government (2001) Education development strategic plan for 2001-2010, Hanoi: Education Publishing House 10 The Government (2005) Prime Minister Decision Nr112 on the approval of ‘Building a learning society for 2005-2010’ Project, Vietnam Official Gazette, 22, 12-19 The Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University (2009) A research on foresights of educational changes in 2030 by real-time Delphi method Youngsook Park, Jerome Glen and Millennium Project Vietnam Communist Party (2006) 10th National Congress Documents, Hanoi: National Politics Publishing House Vietnam Communist Party (2007) Resolution of the 4th Session of the Party Central Committee, 10th Tenure, Hanoi: National Politics Publishing House Author Pham Do Nhat Tien is DSc, member of the Scientific Council, National Institute of Education Management, Hanoi, Vietnam Email: pdntien@moet.edu.vn 11 ... increased impact of ICT development and application; 4/ trends in education market formation; 5/ role of the state and the civil society 2.1 Formation of the golden stage of Vietnam population... the Vietnam Education Law that: ? ?The State shall give priority to the investment for education? ? ?The State budget shall play a key role in the total resources invested in education? ?? (National Assembly... dimensions will be: 1/ model of educational delivery (or the economic dimension); 2/ model of educational organisation (or the technological dimension) Along dimension 1, the direction of educational