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Unconventional
Fossil-Based Fuels
Economic and Environmental
Trade-Offs
Michael Toman, Aimee E. Curtright, David S. Ortiz,
Joel Darmstadter, Brian Shannon
Sponsored by the National Commission on Energy Policy
A RAND INFRASTRUCTURE, SAFETY, AND ENVIRONMENT PROGRAM
Environment, Energy, and Economic Development
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and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors
around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its
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© Copyright 2008 RAND Corporation
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Published 2008 by the RAND Corporation
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Unconventional fossil-based fuels : economic and environmental trade-offs / Michael Toman [et al.].
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN 978-0-8330-4564-5 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Petroleum engineering. 2. Heavy oil. 3. Oil sands. 4. Coal liquefaction. I. Toman, Michael A.
II. RAND Corporation.
TN871.U49 2008
333.79'68—dc22
2008036873
This research was sponsored by the National Commission on Energy Policy and was
conducted under the auspices of the Environment, Energy, and Economic Development
Program (EEED) within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE).
iii
Preface
Rising concerns about energy costs and security, as well as about greenhouse-gas (GHG) emis-
sions from use of petroleum-based motor fuels, have stimulated a number of public and pri-
vate efforts worldwide to develop and commercially implement alternatives to petroleum-based
fuels. Commonly considered fuel options for the medium term (roughly 10–20 years) include
both biomass-based fuels (e.g., ethanol, biodiesel) and unconventional fossil-based liquid fuels
derived from such sources as heavy oils, oil sands, coal liquefaction, and oil shale.
is report assesses potential future production levels, production costs, GHG emissions,
and environmental implications of unconventional fossil-based motor fuels derived from oil
sands and coal. e study was sponsored by the National Commission on Energy Policy as
part of a larger body of sponsored research to investigate the portfolio of options needed to
address cost, energy-security, and GHG concerns about motor fuels. e report is intended
to be of use to policy analysts and decisionmakers concerned with each of these aspects of
motor fuels, as well as to the general public that will confront the economic and environmental
implications of different policy choices in this arena.
is study builds on earlier RAND Corporation studies on natural resources and energy
development in the United States. Most relevant are the following:
Producing Liquid Fuels from Coal: Prospects and Policy Issuest (Bartis, Camm, and Ortiz,
forthcoming)
Oil Shale Development in the United States: Prospects and Policy Issuest (Bartis, LaTourrette,
et al., 2005)
Understanding Cost Growth and Performance Shortfalls in Pioneer Process Plants t (Merrow,
Phillips, and Myers, 1981).
The RAND Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program
is research was conducted under the auspices of the Environment, Energy, and Economic
Development Program (EEED) within RAND Infrastructure, Safety, and Environment (ISE).
e mission of ISE is to improve the development, operation, use, and protection of soci-
ety’s essential physical assets and natural resources and to enhance the related social assets
of safety and security of individuals in transit and in their workplaces and communities. e
EEED research portfolio addresses environmental quality and regulation, energy resources and
systems, water resources and systems, climate, natural hazards and disasters, and economic
iv Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels: Economic and Environmental Trade-Offs
development—both domestically and internationally. EEED research is conducted for govern-
ment, foundations, and the private sector.
Questions or comments about this report should be sent to the project leader, David Ortiz
(David_Ortiz@rand.org). Information about EEED is available online (http://www.rand.org/
ise/environ). Inquiries about EEED projects should be sent to the following address:
Debra Knopman, Director, ISE
Environment, Energy, and Economic Development Program, ISE
RAND Corporation
1200 South Hayes Street
Arlington, VA 22202-5050
703-413-1100, x5667
Debra_Knopman@rand.org
v
Contents
Preface iii
Figures
ix
Tables
xi
Summary
xiii
Acknowledgments
xix
Abbreviations
xxi
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction 1
Background
1
Technical Approach
2
Organization of is Report
3
CHAPTER TWO
History and Context of Unconventional Fossil-Resource Development 5
Past U.S. Efforts to Promote Synfuels
5
Energy Information Administration Production Projections
6
Potential Sources of Oil-Sand and CTL-Capacity Investment
6
Policy Drivers for Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels: Greenhouse-Gas Emissions and Energy
Security
7
Concerns About Greenhouse Gases
7
Concerns About Energy Security
8
CHAPTER THREE
Carbon Capture and Storage for Unconventional Fuels 9
Carbon-Dioxide Capture
9
Carbon-Dioxide Transport
10
Carbon-Dioxide Storage
11
Enhanced Oil Recovery
12
Geologic Storage
12
CHAPTER FOUR
Oil Sands and Synthetic Crude Oil 15
Overview of the Resource
15
North American Oil Sands
16
Resource Base
16
vi Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels: Economic and Environmental Trade-Offs
Production Projections 17
Methods of Extracting and Upgrading Oil Sands
18
Mining
18
Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage
19
Cyclic Steam Stimulation
20
Upgrading
20
Future Oil-Sand Technologies
21
Potential Constraints on Oil-Sand Production
22
Environmental Impacts and Water Resources
22
Natural-Gas Prices
24
Other Market Constraints
26
Carbon-Dioxide Production, Capture, and Storage
27
Baseline Carbon-Dioxide Emissions from Oil-Sand Production
27
Carbon-Dioxide Capture and Storage for Oil Sands
29
Unit Costs for Oil-Sand Production
29
Current Costs for Oil-Sand Production Without Carbon-Dioxide Management
30
Future Production Costs Without Carbon-Dioxide Management: Capital-Cost
Uncertainties and Learning-Based Cost Declines
31
Cost Sensitivity to the Price of Natural Gas
33
Current Carbon Dioxide–Management Costs for Synthetic Crude Oil
35
Development and Learning for Carbon-Dioxide Capture
36
CHAPTER FIVE
Coal-to-Liquids Production 39
e Coal Resource Base Relative to Coal-to-Liquids Production Needs
39
Liquid-Fuel Production via Indirect Liquefaction of Coal
40
Methanol-to-Gasoline
42
Potential Constraints on Production of Coal-to-Liquid Fuels
43
Carbon-Dioxide Production and Capture for Coal-to-Liquids
44
Baseline Carbon-Dioxide Emissions from Coal-to-Liquids Production
44
Mixing Biomass and Coal to Reduce Coal-to-Liquids Carbon-Dioxide Emissions
44
Carbon Capture for Coal-to-Liquids
46
Potential Future Unit Production Costs for Coal-to-Liquids
46
Carbon Dioxide–Management Cost for CTL
48
Potential Cost Declines from Learning
50
CHAPTER SIX
Competitiveness of Unit Production Costs for Synthetic Crude Oil and Coal-to-Liquids 51
Oil Sands
52
Cost Comparison for Synthetic Crude Oil Produced by Integrated Mining and Upgrading
53
Cost Comparison for Synthetic Crude Oil Produced by Steam-Assisted Gravity Drainage
and Upgrading
55
Coal to Liquids
55
Incorporating Energy-Security Costs
58
Contents vii
CHAPTER SEVEN
Conclusions 61
Synthesis of the Cost-Competitiveness Analysis
61
Broader Conclusions and Implications
62
References
65
[...]... cost-competitiveness of fuels from SCO and CTL relative to fuels from conventional crude oil: the future price of crude oil changes in the unit production costs of the unconventional fossil-based fuels induced by further technical advances and experience in their production the implications of potential constraints on CO2 emissions for the unit production costs of both conventional and unconventional fossil-based fuels. .. cost-competitiveness of fuels from oil sands and CTL relative to fuels from conventional crude oil: the future price of crude oil changes in the unit costs of the unconventional fossil-based fuels induced by further technical advances and experience in their production the implications of potential constraints on CO2 emissions for the unit costs of both conventional and unconventional fossil-based fuels The future... GHG emissions, and other environmental implications of two fossil-based alternative fuels These are fuels derived from bitumen extracted from oil sands and fuels produced by conversion of coal to liquid fuels The first is often called synthetic crude oil (SCO), while the second is often referred to as coal-to-liquids (CTL) Production of liquid fuels from a combination of coal and biomass is also briefly... some broader conclusions CHAPTER TWO History and Context of Unconventional Fossil-Resource Development Past U.S Efforts to Promote Synfuels The Synthetic Fuels Corporation (SFC) was a U.S government–sponsored program to develop a capacity to produce synthetic fuels in the early to mid-1980s Critics of new efforts to promote unconventional fossil fuels often use the poor results of SFC as an argument for... analysis of oil shale 1 2 Unconventional Fossil-Based Fuels: Economic and Environmental Trade-Offs In the absence of measures to capture and permanently store CO2, SCO from oil sands and CTL, will have higher CO2 emissions/unit of fuel than will conventional fuels The feasibility and costs of limiting or offsetting these higher emissions is one critical consideration in evaluating these fuels Ultimately, it... emissions Fuels derived from oil sands and CTL emit fossil-based CO2 during combustion, just as conventional petroleum products do Thus, even when employing CCS to capture and store CO2 emitted during fuel production, life-cycle emissions of CO2 for these alternative fuels are comparable to those of conventional fuels Large-scale production of these unconventional fuels does not reduce emissions of CO2 Reliance... key background on the energy-security and GHG concerns motivating interest in the alternative fuels, particularly unconventional fossil-based ones Chapters Three through Five review the particulars of CCS, SCO from oil sands, and fuels from CTL Chapter Six examines the cost-competitiveness of SCO and CTL fuels relative to conventional petroleum under different assumptions about technology, crude-oil... biomass-based fuels (e.g., ethanol, biodiesel) and unconventional fossil-based liquid fuels derived from such sources as heavy oils, oil sands, oil shale, and coal liquefaction In this report, RAND researchers assess the potential future production levels, production costs, greenhouse gases (GHGs), and other environmental implications of synthetic crude oil (SCO) produced from oil sands and transportation fuels. .. relative to conventional fuels and the relative costs of mitigating increased emissions from transportation fuels These sets of economic and environmental questions are linked by the fact that the future unit costs of alternative fuels in the market will depend on advances in their technologies and the costs of addressing their CO2 emissions; the competitiveness of the alternative fuels will depend on... 56 Influence of Carbon Dioxide–Emission Costs on the Competitiveness of Unconventional Fuels Compared to Conventional Petroleum, No Carbon Capture and Storage 62 Sensitivity of Competitiveness of Unconventional Fuels with Carbon Capture and Storage to Crude-Oil Price . 10–20 years) include
both biomass-based fuels (e.g., ethanol, biodiesel) and unconventional fossil-based liquid fuels
derived from such sources as heavy. of
Unconventional Fuels Compared to Conventional Petroleum, No Carbon
Capture and Storage
62
7.2. Sensitivity of Competitiveness of Unconventional Fuels
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