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RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. NATIONAL SECURITY RESEARCH DIVISION Talking to the Enemy Dalia Dassa Kaye Track Two Diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R ® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2007 RAND Corporation All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in writing from RAND. Published 2007 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: order@rand.org Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Kaye, Dalia Dassa. Talking to the enemy : track two diplomacy in the Middle East and South Asia / Dalia Dassa Kaye. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN 978-0-8330-4191-3 (pbk. : alk. paper) 1. Conflict management—Case studies. 2. Arab-Israeli conflict—1993–—Peace. 3. Conflict management—South Asia. 4. Mediation, International. 5. Security, International. I. Title. JZ6368.K394 2007 956.05'3—dc22 2007028637 Cover Design by Stephen Bloodsworth This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. iii Preface is monograph originated with a Smith Richardson Foundation research grant to explore the question of how unofficial regional secu- rity dialogues affect security perceptions and policy in regions defined by conflict. Do such dialogues affect adversarial relationships and, if so, how? What are the limits and dangers of such dialogues? e grow- ing importance of regional contexts and nonstate actors in addressing a multitude of conflicts has created a greater demand for unofficial track two security dialogues as a critical foreign policy tool. e appeal of unofficial dialogues is their ability to raise ideas and solutions that might not be possible in official circles, but that could over time influ- ence official thinking and, ultimately, policy. What seems unthinkable today may, through unofficial contacts, become the norm tomorrow. But such assumptions about the power of track two diplomacy have rarely been systematically assessed through empirical analysis. is work is an attempt to do so. rough an examination of regional security track two efforts in the Middle East and South Asia, this mono- graph considers the roles as well as the limits of such processes and offers ways in which project organizers and funders might assess vari- ous efforts. Such assessments can provide not only a better understand- ing of what these types of dialogues have or have not accomplished in the past, but also a framework for understanding and improving these efforts in the future. e findings and lessons of this work should apply not only to the Middle East and South Asia, but also to other regions struggling to resolve long-standing adversarial relationships. iv Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia is monograph expands and updates previous work the author has conducted in the area of track two diplomacy, including Rethink- ing Track Two Diplomacy: e Middle East and South Asia (Kaye, 2005) and “Track Two Diplomacy and Regional Security in the Middle East” (Kaye, 2001b). is work should be of interest to members of security policy communities in the United States and abroad as well as regional experts focusing specifically on the Middle East and South Asia. Academic researchers and teachers of courses on conflict resolution may also find the monograph useful. Finally, the work should be helpful to the many private foundations that fund regional track two efforts as they attempt to assess the returns on their investment. Comments are welcome and should be directed to the author (Dalia_Kaye@rand.org). is monograph results from the RAND Corporation’s continu- ing program of self-initiated independent research. Support for such research is provided, in part, by donors and by the independent research and development provisions of RAND’s contracts for the operation of its U.S. Department of Defense federally funded research and develop- ment centers. RAND’s National Security Research Division (NSRD) oversaw the final stages of this research. is research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center (ISDP) of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis for the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the U.S. Coast Guard, the U.S. Intelligence Community, allied foreign governments, and foundations. For more information on RAND’s International Security and Defense Policy Center, contact the Director, James Dobbins. He can be reached by email at James_Dobbins@rand.org; by phone at 703- 413-1100, extension 5134; or by mail at the R AND Corporation, 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, Virginia 22202-5050. More informa- tion about RAND is available at www.rand.org. v Contents Preface iii Figure and Tables ix Summary xi Acknowledgments xxi Abbreviations xxiii CHAPTER ONE Rethinking Track Two Diplomacy 1 Key Issues and Questions 1 e State of the Field 2 A Normative Framework 3 Defining Track Two 5 Applying Track Two 8 A Regional Focus 10 Historical Precedents 12 Comparing the Middle East and South Asia 16 Roles for Track Two Dialogues 21 Socialization of Participating Elites: Creating a Constituency for Regional Cooperation 22 Filtering: Making Others’ Ideas Your Own 23 Transmission: Turning Ideas into New Policies 24 Limits of Track Two Dialogues 25 CHAPTER TWO Regional Security Dialogues in the Middle East 31 Introduction 31 Overview of Dialogues 34 UCLA and the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation 36 e Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) 38 e Search for Common Ground 39 DePaul University 41 United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research (UNIDIR) 42 Cooperative Monitoring Center 43 Canadian-Sponsored Maritime Activities 45 e U.S. Geological Survey and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory: Regional Seismic Monitoring Cooperation Project 46 European-Sponsored Activities 47 Gulf Security Track Two Forums 48 Roles 53 Socialization 53 Filtering 63 Policy Impact 65 Limits 68 Elites 68 Domestic Constraints 69 e Regional Environment 71 Conclusion 72 CHAPTER THREE Regional Security Dialogues in South Asia 75 Introduction 75 Overview of Dialogues 78 Neemrana Process 79 Balusa Group 80 Kashmir Study Group (KSG) 82 Shanghai Process 82 Stimson Center Dialogues 83 CSIS Meetings on Nuclear Risk Reduction Centres (NRRCs) 85 Cooperative Monitoring Center, Sandia National Laboratories 86 Maritime Activities: e Confidence and Cooperation in South Asian Waters Project 87 Roles 88 vi Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia Socialization 88 Filtering 93 Policy Impact 96 Limits 99 Elites 99 Domestic Constraints 101 Regional Environment 103 Conclusion 104 CHAPTER FOUR Conclusion 105 Central Arguments 105 Regional Comparisons 107 Regional Lessons 113 Improving Track Two Dialogues 117 Expand the Types of Participants 117 Create or Strengthen Institutional Support and Mentors for Track Two Activities 119 Localize the Dialogues 120 Bibliography 123 Contents vii [...]... alter views about the value of cooperation with other regional actors, even if attitudes toward those actors remain generally negative xi xii Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia Such dialogue serves as a conditioning process in which regional actors are exposed to new concepts, adapt them to their own contexts, and shape policy debates over time The reframing of... insights throughout the process, and indeed even before the monograph was fully formed I would also like to acknowledge the generous assistance of Peter Jones, who read an earlier version of the manuscript xxi xxii Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia and provided extremely useful feedback, particularly on the Middle East sections I am also grateful to David Griffiths... The book also makes an attempt to assess the effectiveness of track two dialogues, although the bulk of the analysis concerns Arab-Israeli bilateral track two dialogues in which the objective is to influence a track one negotiation Only one chapter addresses the issue of regional security dialogues, for which the authors acknowledge it is more difficult to assess effectiveness That said, the fact that the. .. this problem, but the gap between Arabs and Iranians is significant) In the Middle East, Arab governments are ahead of the public in terms of reconciliation with Israel; in South Asia, the reverse appears to be the case Perhaps in part because South Asia’s public is more receptive to reconciliation efforts, track two ideas are spreading to more societal groups in the region and leading to the development... future instability, leading to scenarios that suggest more aggressive Indian behavior xx Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia Such concerns are likely to be replicated and viewed with even more alarm in the Middle East if Iran acquires nuclear capability This is particularly the case given that nuclear breakout is unlikely to remain limited to a bipolar relationship... like to acknowledge the assistance of other RAND colleagues, particularly Gene Gritton, Michael Lostumbo, Nurith Berstein, Josh Levine, James Torr, Ron Miller, Stephen Bloodsworth, and John Warren The capable administrative assistance of Isabel Sardou and, especially, Terri Perkins at RAND helped in the preparation of the monograph during the final stages of the process I owe a special thanks to Michael... entirely absent For example, one track two group promoted the idea of a joint pipeline to pump natural gas from Iran to India and Pakistan—addressing the growing energy needs of the two countries while also serving as a peace-building exercise With the renewal of the Indian-Pakistani peace process, the pipeline idea moved to the official track In another instance, a prominent Pakistani general who was involved... and parliamentarians—for over 15 years Because of the long-standing nature of the conflict and the strategic importance of the Middle East and South Asia to vital security interests in the West, these regions pose significant challenges for efforts to improve relations and cooperation among adversaries These regions also provide useful cases to assess the nature and influence of track two dialogues by... xviii Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia ments for cooperative security ideas and activities promoted through track two efforts Neither in the Middle East nor in South Asia is there a common perception of external or internal threats that might propel regional actors toward greater regional cooperation; instead, threat perceptions are often based on actors from... such activities and places them squarely in the peace-building realm 4 Talking to the Enemy: Track Two Diplomacy in the MIddle East and South Asia sessment.5 Unlike the Oslo model, many regional track two dialogues are not necessarily intended to have an immediate influence on track one negotiations.6 Instead, many unofficial dialogues are either bilateral or multilateral attempts to address or define regional . the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Commands, the defense agencies, the Department of the Navy, the Marine Corps, the. only to the Middle East and South Asia, but also to other regions struggling to resolve long-standing adversarial relationships. iv Talking to the Enemy: