Global Economic Research - Global Forecast Update potx

Global Economic Research Global Forecast Update is available on: www.scotiabank.com, Bloomberg at SCOE and Reuters at SM1C Global Forecast Update New Year Wish List — More Growth We expect that global growth will build momentum, albeit gradually, over the next two years. The Federal Reserve has introduced another and significant round of non-conventional monetary accommodation that, along with the winding down of household deleveraging in the U.S., will help support increased spending, homebuilding and risk-taking at a time of increased federal fiscal restraint. The central banks in the euro zone, the U.K. and Japan will provide more support as needed. Many of the larger developing nations have already implemented additional monetary and fiscal stimulus to maintain comparatively stronger growth trajectories in the absence of more robust conditions in the developed economies. These countries and regions have the financial and institutional capabilities to rebalance towards more domestically generated growth. In particular, increased infrastructure spending will underpin demand for most commodities and keep prices at profitable levels. However, global growth remains comparatively soft and uneven heading into the New Year. The developed nations are still stuck in the slow lane of activity. Economic performances range from recession through much of Europe, to minimal growth in Japan and only moderate advances in Canada and the U.S. in 2013. The pace of growth in the developing countries is comparatively firmer. While activity is still relatively sluggish in Brazil, it is generally good in Mexico, India and South Korea, and relatively solid in most of the other major Latin American and Asia-Pacific nations. Recent evidence suggests that China's economy is regaining momentum in response to renewed stimulus and improved domestic spending. A number of developed economies are implementing the medium-term structural adjustments needed to reduce major budget shortfalls, restore domestic competitiveness, and regulate financial institutions. With inflation pressures mostly absent, short-term borrowing costs will remain at rock bottom levels. Yields on longer-dated securities are expected to begin trending modestly higher from historically low levels in 2013 against the backdrop of ongoing sovereign credit differentiation, a renewed strengthening in economic activity, and an eventual upward drift in inflation expectations. In an environment where the major developed economies are underperformers, are savings-deficient, and have lower interest rates, their currencies will tend to have a weakening bias against many of the developing economies. The yen and euro are likely to underperform widely; whereas the U.S. dollar is expected to underperform the Canadian and Australian dollars as well as the Scandinavian currencies, mainly on relative fiscal fundamentals, monetary policy and selective commodity price strength. Many of the developed economies undergoing a multi-year period of fiscal and economic restructuring will need more time to regenerate stronger growth in the absence of much stronger domestic-led growth in the Asia- Pacific and Latin American regions that would re-invigorate international trade. The U.S. economy has the potential to be a relative outperformer in 2013 and 2014, especially if a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan engenders confidence. U.S. households and financial institutions have refurbished their balance sheets, export competitiveness has been enhanced by low currency-adjusted unit labour costs, overall activity is finding support from expanding energy production and comparatively low and stable prices, and there is considerable consumer and business pent-up demand, particularly for housing and other big-ticket items. Index Overview Forecasts International Commodities North America Provincial Financial Markets December 20, 2012 1-2 3-4 4 5 6 7-8 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 annual % change Scotiabank forecast Average: 1980- 2011 World GDP Source: IMF, Scotiabank Economics. 2 Global Economic Research December 20, 2012 Global Forecast Update Canada's economy will lag the U.S. in performance in 2013. Housing activity is moderating, and Canadians are becoming more cautious borrowers. Export earnings are continuing to be pressured by reduced prices for a number of key commodity exports, and the lack of adequate oil pipeline infrastructure between Canada and key export markets. However, longer-term prospects are still quite favourable, with ongoing investments to further develop the country's large and varied resource base, internationally competitive business tax rates, ongoing capital and immigration inflows, and a relatively lower government debt burden helping to provide a more supportive environment. The impending fiscal cliff, as intended, has spurred some compromises; it also has demonstrated the steep challenges for the U.S. political system to undertake the multi-faceted, multi-year reforms necessary to place American governments on a more sustainable fiscal path. Public debate over taxes for high-income residents has largely precluded substantive discussion of the other measures required to narrow the federal revenue-expenditure gap in order to regain some fiscal flexibility (side charts). Entering 2013, at least “a patch” is still possible to deal with the most urgent issues, such as extending the Bush personal income tax rates with a compromise on the top bracket. A credible commitment to develop a comprehensive tax reform package in 2013 would be encouraging, yet it will prolong some of the uncertainty. Spending and investment decisions by households and businesses will remain constrained until outstanding issues are decided, such as allowed depreciation and capital gains and dividend taxation. The U.S. Treasury’s use of a range of extraordinary measures after the statutory debt ceiling is broached could allow a decision on raising the debt ceiling to be deferred until late February or early March given factors such as some leeway in the timing of personal income tax refunds. By then, a rise in the debt ceiling of at least US$1 trillion is required to take Washington through another year, though staged hikes could be adopted to reflect progress on spending restraint plans. Positive indicators for U.S. economic growth, particularly in the housing sector, are reflected in federal revenues, which are up about 9½% y/y for the first two months of fiscal 2013, before potential tax hikes such as ending the 2011-12 payroll tax reduction. Scotiabank Economics continues to assume that the U.S. economy can sustain healthy forward momentum with a partial implementation of the fiscal cliff restraint in calendar 2013, amounting to a negative contribution of roughly one percentage point to output growth. The remaining ‘cliff ‘ restraint would be adopted in 2014 and 2015. The Fall 2012 Fiscal Survey of States underlines the gradual reversal of the fiscal drag from this level of government as fiscal 2013 1 general fund revenues surpass pre-recession levels in an increasing number of States. Specifics of the federal restraint measures, such as limiting the deductibility of state and local taxes, could impact this recovery and complicate the overhang of longer-term issues such as unfunded pension and retirement benefit liabilities. For the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs — the key drivers of widening budget shortfalls over the longer term — the window of opportunity is narrowing to gradually implement comprehensive structural reforms over a number of years, before substantial numbers of the baby-boom generation approach or surpass 65. __________ 1 The fiscal year-end for Washington is September 30 and for 46 States is June 30. -12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 -1600 -1200 -800 -400 0 400 FY96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 % Budget Balance, LHS % of GDP, RHS US$ billions 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 FY96 00 04 08 12 % of GDP Revenue Expenditure The Uncertainties Emerging From the Fiscal Cliff … and the Revenue-Expenditure Gap U.S. Federal Budget Balances Source for charts: U.S. Office of Management and Budget, Scotiabank Economics. 3 Global Economic Research December 20, 2012 Global Forecast Update Forecast Changes International  The payback from an artificially resilient third-quarter GDP performance in the largest economies of the euro area (i.e., Germany and France) is proving sharper than anticipated in the final months of 2012. The fourth quarter will likely see pronounced GDP contractions, with a negative carry-over into the New Year. We have adjusted lower our 2013 growth forecasts for Germany and France, to 0.7% (previously 0.8%) and 0.1% (0.3%), respectively. Accordingly, we have trimmed our euro zone GDP expectation for next year to -0.1% (from 0.0%). We continue to expect growth of 1.0% in 2014. Though crisis- related tail risks have been mollified in recent months by central bank policy and Eurogroup agreements on Greece and the proposed banking union, significant uncertainties continue to threaten the medium-term outlook, including pending elections in Italy and Germany, progress on fiscal consolidation across the region, bank lending rates (particularly in the periphery), currency dynamics and commodity prices. At present we remain of the view that under this scenario, and with inflation expected to remain consistent with price stability, the European Central Bank will leave interest rates unchanged through 2014.  After the disappointing third- quarter GDP report in Brazil, industrial output expanded by 2.3% y/y in October (the first annual gain since September 2009), signaling a moderate recovery. However, the recovery in the manufacturing sector will have to be confirmed in the coming months. We maintain our view that the Brazilian economy will expand by 1.9% in the fourth quarter and by 1.0% for all of 2012. International 2000-11 2012f 2013f 2014f Real GDP (annual % change) World (based on purchasing power parity) 3.7 3.1 3.2 3.8 Canada 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.3 United States 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.5 Mexico 2.2 4.0 3.6 3.9 United Kingdom 1.9 0.0 1.3 1.5 Euro zone 1.4 -0.5 -0.1 1.0 Germany 1.4 0.9 0.7 1.3 France 1.4 0.1 0.1 1.0 Italy 0.7 -2.2 -0.8 0.8 Spain 1.9 -1.4 -1.7 0.4 Greece 1.6 -6.6 -3.7 -0.8 Portugal 0.8 -3.4 -2.2 0.5 Ireland 3.3 0.0 0.9 2.0 Russia 5.3 3.7 3.7 3.9 China 9.4 7.7 8.0 8.3 India 7.3 5.5 6.0 6.5 Japan 0.8 2.1 0.8 1.2 South Korea 4.5 2.2 3.0 3.5 Indonesia 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.5 Australia 3.0 3.5 2.6 3.1 Thailand 4.0 5.5 4.0 4.2 Brazil 3.6 1.0 3.5 4.0 Colombia 4.5 4.5 5.0 4.8 Peru 5.6 6.3 6.0 5.5 Chile 4.8 5.4 5.0 5.4 Consumer Prices (y/y % change, year-end) Canada 2.1 1.4 2.1 2.2 United States 2.5 2.0 2.2 2.1 Mexico 4.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 United Kingdom 2.3 2.8 2.6 2.5 Euro zone 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.7 Germany 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.0 France 1.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 Italy 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.6 Spain 2.9 3.0 1.7 1.9 Greece 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.6 Portugal 2.6 2.6 0.8 1.5 Ireland 2.2 2.2 1.2 2.0 Russia 12.2 6.4 6.5 6.7 China 2.4 2.2 3.3 3.9 India 6.6 7.3 7.0 6.1 Japan -0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 South Korea 3.2 1.7 2.8 3.0 Indonesia 8.3 4.1 5.0 5.5 Australia 3.1 2.5 2.8 3.0 Thailand 2.7 3.2 3.1 3.3 Brazil 6.6 5.5 5.8 5.0 Colombia 5.6 3.3 3.0 3.5 Peru 2.6 3.3 3.0 3.0 Chile 3.5 2.1 3.2 3.0 4 Global Economic Research December 20, 2012 Global Forecast Update -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 China Canada U.S. Euro- zone 2012f 2013f 2014f Real GDP, annual average % change 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 Index:2002Q1=100 Gold Natural Gas WTI Oil Copper Nickel Forecast Changes International  We have made a minor revision to our expectation regarding China’s monetary policy path. We now assess that the People’s Bank of China’s benchmark 1-year lending rate has reached its cyclical bottom at the current level of 6.0%, as China’s economic outlook continues to improve with real GDP, sentiment indicators, industrial production, and retail sales indicating that a revival, albeit modest, is imminent. We expect the Chinese economy to expand by 8.0% in 2013. Monetary tightening is in sight in the first quarter of 2014, taking the policy rate to 6.6% by the end of the year. Commodities  Scotiabank’s Commodity Price Index fell by 8.4% yr/yr through November 2012, led by declines in oil & gas and metals & minerals. However, forest products-based building materials — lumber & OSB — and agriculture were pockets of strength.  Lumber and OSB are our top investor ‘picks’ for 2013 — expected to post a multiple-year recovery through mid-decade.  With only a modest rebound in U.S. housing activity, substantial lumber & OSB mill closures across North America since 2006 are quickly translating into a tighter supply/ demand balance. While financial institutions are still holding a large number of homes off the market, the supply of ‘existing homes for sale’ at 4.8 months in November was approaching normal levels (4.6 months from 2000-05). Average home prices (including condos) have increased by 9.9% yr/yr. As a result, U.S. housing starts have already rebounded to 861,000 units annualized (+22% yr/yr) in November, up from a mere 612,000 units in 2011. U.S. housing starts should rise to 950,000 units in 2013 and 1.100 million in 2014. The improvement in U.S. residential construction is also occurring in an environment of growing demand from China. Global Growth Commodity Price Trends Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Source: Scotiabank Economics. Bloomberg, BEA, Statistics Canada, Eurostat. International 2000-11 2012f 2013f 2014f Current Account Balance (% of GDP) Canada 0.4 -3.9 -3.3 -2.5 United States -4.4 -3.0 -2.6 -2.6 Mexico -1.2 -1.0 -1.4 -1.8 United Kingdom -2.1 -3.2 -2.3 -1.8 Euro zone -0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Germany 3.9 5.6 5.3 5.1 France -0.2 -2.2 -1.9 -1.6 Italy -1.4 -1.9 -1.4 -1.1 Spain -5.7 -2.1 -1.0 -0.7 Greece -8.8 -6.1 -4.2 -3.2 Portugal -9.6 -2.5 -1.5 -1.1 Ireland -1.7 1.7 2.5 3.2 Russia 8.6 4.5 3.8 2.4 China 4.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 India -1.0 -4.4 -3.9 -3.6 Japan 3.2 1.1 1.2 1.5 South Korea 2.3 3.8 3.2 3.2 Indonesia 2.1 -2.1 -2.4 -2.3 Australia -4.3 -3.6 -3.7 -3.2 Thailand 3.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 Brazil -1.0 -3.3 -3.4 -3.0 Colombia -1.7 -3.0 -3.1 -4.0 Peru -1.0 -3.8 -3.9 -3.0 Chile 0.6 -3.0 -3.7 -4.6 Commodities (annual average) WTI Oil (US$/bbl) 57949496 Brent Oil (US$/bbl) 58 112 112 112 Nymex Natural Gas (US$/mmbtu) 5.67 2.85 3.75 4.00 Copper (US$/lb) 2.10 3.62 3.50 3.30 Zinc (US$/lb) 0.77 0.88 1.01 1.20 Nickel (US$/lb) 7.62 7.95 8.10 8.00 Gold, London PM Fix (US$/oz) 668 1,670 1,750 1,700 Pulp (US$/tonne) 718 872 875 950 Newsprint (US$/tonne) 581 640 630 660 Lumber (US$/mfbm) 272 298 340 375 5 Global Economic Research December 20, 2012 Global Forecast Update Forecast Changes Canada & United States  The outlook for the Canadian and U.S. economies in 2013-2014 is largely unchanged from our last update. Real GDP growth is expected to average 2.0% in Canada and 2.3% in the United States, with underlying momentum building gradually over the forecast horizon. In both countries, business investment and exports are being constrained by the slow pace of global growth and ongoing economic uncertainty. While federal fiscal restraint is expected to impose a relatively larger drag on U.S. growth, greater pent-up demand for consumer goods and housing give the U.S. economy a slight performance edge over Canada.  Canada’s projected federal deficits from fiscal 2012-13 (FY13) through FY15 rely upon annual real per capita program spending declines. In the United States, potential restrictions on personal income tax deductions could significantly impact specific sectors, from charities to housing. Mexico  As a result of the recent inflation performance in Mexico, we are revising our 2012 year-end CPI forecast from 4.2% to 4.0% y/y. Consumer prices increased by 4.8% y/y in September, its highest level since March 2010; it has slowed since then to 4.2% y/y in November (marked by discounts given through the “el buen fin” sales weekend). North America 2000-11 2012f 2013f 2014f Canada (annual % change) Real GDP 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.3 Consumer Spending 3.1 2.0 2.0 2.2 Residential Investment 4.2 5.5 -3.5 -3.6 Business Investment 3.0 4.8 4.9 6.2 Government 3.4 -0.9 -0.3 -0.2 Exports 0.2 1.7 3.0 5.7 Imports 3.3 2.7 2.5 3.8 Nominal GDP 4.7 3.3 3.3 4.3 GDP Deflator 2.5 1.3 1.6 1.9 Consumer Price Index 2.1 1.6 1.9 2.1 Core CPI 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9 Pre-Tax Corporate Profits 5.5 -1.2 2.0 6.0 Employment 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 thousands of jobs 242 197 214 209 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.0 Current Account Balance (C$ bn.) 1.5 -71.0 -62.2 -50.0 Merchandise Trade Balance (C$ bn.) 41.0 -11.8 -4.7 8.9 Federal Budget Balance (C$ bn.) -1.2 -25.0 -18.0 -10.5 per cent of GDP 0.0 -1.4 -1.0 -0.5 Housing Starts (thousands) 200 214 180 175 Motor Vehicle Sales (thousands) 1,588 1,680 1,690 1,695 Motor Vehicle Production (thousands) 2,447 2,500 2,625 2,650 Industrial Production 0.0 0.7 2.0 3.3 United States Real GDP 1.8 2.2 2.0 2.5 Consumer Spending 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.6 Residential Investment -4.6 12.0 15.8 18.3 Business Investment 1.2 7.0 1.4 5.1 Government 1.7 -1.3 -0.8 -1.0 Exports 4.1 3.7 3.4 4.8 Imports 3.5 2.8 2.3 4.8 Nominal GDP 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.5 GDP Deflator 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.9 Consumer Price Index 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.2 Core CPI 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.0 Pre-Tax Corporate Profits 6.5 6.5 5.0 7.0 Employment 0.2 1.4 1.4 1.8 millions of jobs 0.20 1.86 1.83 2.41 Unemployment Rate (%) 6.2 8.1 7.6 7.1 Current Account Balance (US$ bn.) -553 -467 -427 -447 Merchandise Trade Balance (US$ bn.) -642 -727 -708 -752 Federal Budget Balance (US$ bn.) -481 -1,089 -950 -800 per cent of GDP -3.4 -6.9 -5.8 -4.7 Housing Starts (millions) 1.38 0.78 0.95 1.10 Motor Vehicle Sales (millions) 15.2 14.3 15.0 15.5 Motor Vehicle Production (millions) 10.4 10.1 10.5 10.9 Industrial Production 0.5 3.6 2.6 3.4 Mexico Real GDP 2.2 4.0 3.6 3.9 Consumer Price Index (year-end) 4.8 4.0 4.0 3.8 Unemployment Rate (%) 3.8 4.8 4.4 4.1 Current Account Balance (US$ bn.) -10.3 -12.1 -19.4 -26.3 Merchandise Trade Balance (US$ bn.) -7.5 -4.6 -11.6 -14.9 Industrial Production 1.6 3.9 3.6 3.7 6 Global Economic Research December 20, 2012 Global Forecast Update Provincial 2000-11 2012f 2013f 2014f 2000-11 2012f 2013f 2014f Real GDP Budget Balances*, FY March 31 (annual % change) ($ millions) Canada 2.2 2.0 1.7 2.3 106 -26,220 -25,000 -18,000 Newfoundland & Labrador 3.1 1.2 2.7 2.2 133 776 -726 n.a. Prince Edward Island 1.9 1.2 1.1 1.6 -32 -79 -80 n.a. Nova Scotia 1.7 1.3 1.3 2.2 70 -248 -277 n.a. New Brunswick 1.8 1.1 1.0 1.8 -77 -261 -357 n.a. Quebec 1.9 1.0 1.4 2.0 -623 -2,628 -1,500 0 Ontario 1.9 2.0 1.6 2.0 -3,374 -12,969 -14,371 n.a. Manitoba 2.2 2.2 1.6 2.2 189 ** -999 -567 n.a. Saskatchewan 2.2 3.1 2.6 2.9 393 352 6 n.a. Alberta 3.0 3.4 2.7 3.1 3,627 0 0 n.a. British Columbia 2.6 2.1 1.7 2.4 540 -1,840 -1,469 n.a. * Final. Other FY12 and FY13 data: Provinces' estimates. ** FY04-FY11. Employment Unemployment Rate (annual % change) (annual average, %) Canada 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 7.1 7.3 7.2 7.0 Newfoundland & Labrador 0.9 2.1 1.3 1.4 15.0 12.6 12.3 11.7 Prince Edward Island 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.8 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.0 Nova Scotia 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.9 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.7 New Brunswick 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 9.4 10.2 10.1 9.9 Quebec 1.4 0.5 1.0 1.1 8.2 7.8 7.7 7.6 Ontario 1.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 7.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 Manitoba 1.2 0.8 0.9 1.4 4.9 5.3 5.2 5.1 Saskatchewan 0.9 2.0 1.5 1.7 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.5 Alberta 2.6 2.7 2.0 2.1 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.5 British Columbia 1.5 1.7 1.2 1.3 6.7 6.7 6.6 6.5 Housing Starts Motor Vehicle Sales (annual, thousands of units) (annual, thousands of units) Canada 200 214 180 175 1,588 1,680 1,690 1,695 Atlantic 12 12 10 10 114 123 124 124 Quebec 45 47 42 40 405 420 422 422 Ontario 73 76 61 60 603 627 630 631 Manitoba 5 7 6 5 44 50 50 51 Saskatchewan 4 10 8 7 42 54 55 55 Alberta 34 34 30 30 205 237 239 241 British Columbia 27 28 23 23 175 169 170 171 * * * * * * * * Forecast Changes Provinces  According to the revised Provincial Economic Accounts, Saskatchewan experienced a 28% improvement in its terms-of-trade from 2007 to 2011, the largest among the provinces. With the province’s interprovincial terms-of- trade effectively unchanged over that period, the improvement came from the its international terms-of-trade, in particular a modest decrease in import prices along with a 46% increase in the price of its international goods exports. Prices of the province’s key exports have been mixed this year, with higher wheat and canola prices, but lower oil, potash and uranium prices.  The revisions also indicate that Canadian export volumes declined at an average annual rate of 1.9% between 2007 and 2011, with only four provinces achieving a measurable increase in international shipments over that period. Notwithstanding the decline in international exports, all but two provinces registered growth in real interprovincial exports over this period. In the case of Ontario, in 2011, the province was able to partially offset its international trade deficit equivalent to 5% of GDP, with an interprovincial trade surplus equivalent to 3.5% of GDP. We expect these trends have continued this year, with interprovincial exports outperforming the modest growth in international shipments.  Updates for fiscal 2012-13 (FY13) indicate a range of belt-tightening across the Provinces. Relative to Budget, the shortfall in provincial resource receipts for FY13 is now expected to exceed $2.0 billion. Major federal transfers for FY14 for each Province, however, are guaranteed by Ottawa not to decline below FY13 levels. To help restrain net debt, a number of Provinces continue to trim capital spending plans. Canada Canada Canada Newfoundland & Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Newfoundland & Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Atlantic Quebec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Real GDP (annual % change) Budget Balances*, FY March 31 ($millions) Employment (annual % change) Unemployment Rate (annual average, %) Housing Starts (annual, thousands of units) Motor Vehicle Sales (annual, thousands of units) *Final. Other FY12 and FY13 data: Provinces' estimates. **FY04-FY11. Provincial 2000-11 2012f 2013f 2014f 2000-11 2012f 2013f 2014f 7 Global Economic Research December 20, 2012 Global Forecast Update Quarterly Forecasts 12Q4f 13Q1f 13Q2f 13Q3f 13Q4f 14Q1f 14Q2f 14Q3f 14Q4f Canada Real GDP (q/q, ann. % change) 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 Real GDP (y/y, % change) 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.4 Consumer Prices (y/y, % change) 1.4 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.2 Core CPI (y/y % change) 1.3 1.6 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 United States Real GDP (q/q, ann. % change) 1.0 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 Real GDP (y/y, % change) 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 Consumer Prices (y/y, % change) 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 Core CPI (y/y % change) 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Financial Markets Central Bank Rates (%, end of period) Americas Bank of Canada 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.25 1.50 1.75 2.00 U.S. Federal Reserve 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 Bank of Mexico 4.50 4.75 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.75 6.50 6.75 7.00 Central Bank of Brazil 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.75 8.25 8.25 Bank of the Republic of Colombia 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.00 5.00 5.50 5.50 6.00 6.00 Central Reserve Bank of Peru 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.25 4.50 5.00 5.00 Central Bank of Chile 5.00 5.00 5.25 5.50 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.25 Europe European Central Bank 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 Bank of England 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 Swiss National Bank 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Asia/Oceania Bank of Japan 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 Reserve Bank of Australia 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.75 People's Bank of China 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.30 6.30 6.60 6.60 Reserve Bank of India 8.00 7.50 7.00 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.75 7.00 7.25 Bank of Korea 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 Bank Indonesia 5.75 5.75 5.75 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.50 6.75 7.00 Bank of Thailand 2.75 2.75 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 Canada 3-month T-bill 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.10 1.35 1.65 1.90 2.15 2-year Canada 1.10 1.10 1.25 1.65 1.95 2.25 2.40 2.60 2.75 5-year Canada 1.35 1.35 1.65 1.90 2.15 2.40 2.55 2.75 2.95 10-year Canada 1.75 1.75 1.95 2.15 2.40 2.70 2.85 3.05 3.20 30-year Canada 2.35 2.35 2.60 2.70 3.10 3.35 3.50 3.60 3.65 United States 3-month T-bill 0.05 0.05 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 2-year Treasury 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.50 0.75 1.00 1.30 5-year Treasury 0.70 0.70 0.90 1.25 1.45 1.55 1.60 1.85 2.10 10-year Treasury 1.70 1.70 1.80 2.10 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.15 3.25 30-year Treasury 2.90 2.90 2.95 3.20 3.65 3.85 4.00 4.10 4.15 Canada-U.S. Spreads 3-month T-bill 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.90 1.00 1.25 1.55 1.80 2.05 2-year 0.85 0.85 0.95 1.30 1.55 1.75 1.65 1.60 1.45 5-year 0.65 0.65 0.75 0.65 0.70 0.85 0.95 0.90 0.85 10-year 0.05 0.05 0.15 0.05 -0.10 -0.05 -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 30-year -0.55 -0.55 -0.35 -0.50 -0.55 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 -0.50 Global Economic Research Global Economic Research December 20, 2012 Global Forecast Update Scotiabank Economics Scotia Plaza 40 King Street West, 63rd Floor Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1 Tel: (416) 866-6253 Fax: (416) 866-2829 Email: scotia.economics@scotiabank.com This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank. Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. TM Trademark of The Bank of Nova Scotia. Used under license, where applicable. 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 % Forecast Canada U.S. U.K. Euro zone -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 07 08 09 10 11 12 y/y % change U.S. China Euro zone Canada 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 % Forecast Canada U.S. Central Bank Rates Global Inflation 10-Year Yields Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Source: Bloomberg, Scotiabank Economics. Financial Markets 12Q4f 13Q1f 13Q2f 13Q3f 13Q4f 14Q1f 14Q2f 14Q3f 14Q4f Exchange Rates (end of period) Americas Canadian Dollar (USDCAD) 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 Canadian Dollar (CADUSD) 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.06 Mexican Peso (USDMXN) 12.78 12.93 12.84 12.95 13.17 13.01 12.84 12.89 13.05 Brazilian Real (USDBRL) 2.06 2.11 2.12 2.15 2.15 2.15 2.18 2.20 2.20 Colombian Peso (USDCOP) 1789 1810 1820 1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 Peruvian Nuevo Sol (USDPEN) 2.56 2.55 2.53 2.51 2.49 2.49 2.48 2.45 2.45 Chilean Peso (USDCLP) 475 493 494 495 497 498 500 503 505 Canadian Dollar Cross Rates Euro (EURCAD) 1.29 1.26 1.25 1.23 1.22 1.20 1.20 1.18 1.18 U.K. Pound (GBPCAD) 1.58 1.57 1.58 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.57 1.56 1.56 Japanese Yen (CADJPY) 87 88 90 93 94 95 96 97 98 Australian Dollar (AUDCAD) 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.03 1.04 1.02 1.03 Mexican Peso (CADMXN) 13.17 13.33 13.24 13.49 13.72 13.69 13.51 13.71 13.89 Europe Euro (EURUSD) 1.33 1.30 1.29 1.28 1.27 1.26 1.26 1.25 1.25 U.K. Pound (GBPUSD) 1.63 1.62 1.63 1.64 1.64 1.65 1.65 1.66 1.66 Swiss Franc (USDCHF) 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.98 1.00 1.00 Swedish Krona (USDSEK) 6.51 6.62 6.59 6.56 6.54 6.55 6.51 6.52 6.48 Norwegian Krone (USDNOK) 5.55 5.60 5.50 5.40 5.30 5.28 5.25 5.22 5.20 Russian Ruble (USDRUB) 30.7 30.9 31.2 31.5 31.8 31.9 32.0 32.1 32.2 Asia/Oceania Japanese Yen (USDJPY) 84 85 87 89 90 90 91 91 92 Australian Dollar (AUDUSD) 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.10 Chinese Yuan (USDCNY) 6.25 6.25 6.20 6.15 6.10 6.09 6.07 6.06 6.04 Indian Rupee (USDINR) 54.5 54.1 53.8 53.4 53.0 52.7 52.4 52.1 51.8 South Korean Won (USDKRW) 1075 1069 1063 1056 1050 1044 1038 1031 1025 Indonesian Rupiah (USDIDR) 9700 9675 9650 9625 9600 9550 9500 9450 9400 Thai Baht (USDTHB) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.9 29.8 . 2.1 -2 .1 -2 .4 -2 .3 Australia -4 .3 -3 .6 -3 .7 -3 .2 Thailand 3.2 0.5 1.1 1.4 Brazil -1 .0 -3 .3 -3 .4 -3 .0 Colombia -1 .7 -3 .0 -3 .1 -4 .0 Peru -1 .0 -3 .8 -3 .9. -2 .1 -3 .2 -2 .3 -1 .8 Euro zone -0 .2 0.3 0.4 0.5 Germany 3.9 5.6 5.3 5.1 France -0 .2 -2 .2 -1 .9 -1 .6 Italy -1 .4 -1 .9 -1 .4 -1 .1 Spain -5 .7 -2 .1 -1 .0 -0 .7