CO2 EMISSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ASEAN COUNTRIES

- REPORT – on CO2 EMISSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ASEAN COUNTRIES Hand-in date: 11.03.2018 Prepared by: Vũ Hữu Quyền, 1613340141 Lê Quang Thế Anh, 1613340003 Hồ Thị Phương, 1613340073 Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hoài, 1613340043 Nguyễn Kỳ Mi, 1617340058 Lê Huyền Trang, 1613340096 Phạm Quang Minh, 1613340060 Course title: Environmental Economics TABLE OF CONTENTS Content Page ABSTRACT INTRODUCTION I Introduction II Objectives of the study TERMINOLOGY I CO2 Emssions II Environment Kuznet curve The environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) Explanation of EKC shape Econometrics Framework CONTENT I Main sources of CO2 emissions Human resources Natural Sources II State of economy and CO2 emission in ASEAN countries State and classification of economy in ASEAN countries State of CO2 emssions in ASEAN countries 11 III Testing the Environment Kuznet Curve (EKC) in ASEAN countries 13 High and upper middle income ASEAN countries 13 Low – middle ASEAN countries 14 IV The effects of CO2 emission on the development in ASEAN countries 16 Greenhouse effect 16 Ocean acidification 17 Changes to plant nutrition & growth levels 17 Smog & ozone pollution 17 Ozone layer depletion 17 V Challenges of reducing CO2 emission in ASEAN countries 18 VI Recommendations 18 VII Conclusion 19 APPENDIX 19 APPENDIX 20 REFERENCES 21 TABLE OF FIGURES Figure Page Figure 1: An estimated Environment Kuznet Curve (EKC) Figure 2: A description of variables in the equation Figure 3: Main sources of CO2 emissions Figure 4: Human sources of Carbon Dioxide Figure 5: Carbon Dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion Figure 6: Natural sources of Carbon Dioxide Figure 7: Summary Statistic of GDP per capita and some emissions per capita in ASEAN countries 10 Figure 8:Classification of ASEAN countries in terms of income level 11 Figure 9: An analysis of CO2 per capita and population in ASEAN countries 11 Figure 10: An Environment Kuznet Curve of high and upper middle income ASEAN countries 13 Figure 11: An Environment Kuznet Curve of low middle income ASEAN countries 15 Figure 12: Temperature changes in ASEAN countries 16 CO2 EMISSION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN ASEAN COUNTRIES Vũ Hữu Quyền, 1613340141 Lê Quang Thế Anh, 1613340003 Hồ Thị Phương, 1613340073 Nguyễn Thị Hồng Hoài, 1613340043 Nguyễn Kỳ Mi, 1617340058 Lê Huyền Trang, 1613340096 Phạm Quang Minh, 1613340060 Foreign Trade University 91 Chùa Láng Street, Dong Da District, Hanoi ABSTRACT Development and urbanization are very important for developing countries, but rapid economic growth alone is not an indicator of development for a dynamic and sustainable economy Recently, studies on the environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) revealed that environmental degradation occurs in tandem with economic growth This profound result has led many economists interested to study about economic growth and environmental degradation Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis describes relationship between environmental degradation and level of income follows an upside down U path Our asignment aims to demonstrate EKC for the ASEAN case, using emissions data from variety sources In this article, we focus on emphasizing the relationship between economic development and environmental destruction Using realistic models and data, we will explain how fossil fuel combustion, transportation and industrialization massively increase CO2 concentrations in ASEAN countries, which further contributed to global warming We use time series data from 1990 - 2016 in 10 ASEAN countries namely Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Laos, Brunei, Cambodia, Myanmar and Singapore At the end, we also implicate some the effect of CO2 emission that cause deterioration in the environment as well as holding a number of solutions to these issues and long-term plan to minimize its volume and effects Key words: ASEAN countries, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), CO2 emission INTRODUCTION I INTRODUCTION Firstly, carbon dioxide (CO2) is never out of concern and related to global warming It is released into Earth’s atmosphere mostly by the burning of carbon-containing fuels and the decay of wood and other plant matter Under all conditions found naturally on Earth, CO2 is an invisible, odorless gas Although other gases are also causing Earth’s climate to warm, CO2 alone is responsible for about three-fourths of global warming Emissions of CO2 predate the human race by billions of years and are essential to life on Earth, since the natural greenhouse effect keeps Earth’s average surface temperature above freezing In the deep geological past, atmospheric CO2 has sometimes been much higher than today On the other hand, until human beings began to burn large amounts of fossil fuel in the late eighteenth century, CO2 had been stable for about 20 million years Due to anthropogenic (human-caused) emissions, atmospheric CO2 is now significantly higher than at any time in the last 800,000 years and probably in the last 20 million This change has happened in a mere 200 years, which is instantaneous by geological standards Secondly, the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased greatly since human beings began burning large amounts of coal and petroleum in the nineteenth century In more recent times, this source of CO2 emissions has increased rapidly, while destruction of forests has also become a major source of CO2 Atmospheric concentrations of several other gases, including methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), have also been increased recently by human activities and are contributing to greenhouse warming of the planet Thirdly, to ASEAN countries, this problem has become serious recently According to the data in the IEA report, in 2005, the total emissions from transport in Vietnam were 20.3 million tons; national road transport emissions totaled 16.8 million tons Motorcycles are the largest emitters in Vietnam, contributing 53 percent of CO2 emissions in 2005 Under the business as usual scenario, carbon emissions from transport sector are expected to be increase to 144 million tons while road transport will have reached 126 million tons It is estimated that there will be an annual increase in total CO2 e missions of 4.5 percent A later report provided that, in 2009, Indonesia ranked sixteenth in the world, and also the first in ASEAN for carbon dioxide emissions with total 413.29 million tons The next was Thailand (253.58 million tons, 3.8 tons per capital) and then Vietnam (98.76 million tons in total, 1.12 tons per capital ) If the International Energy Agency (IEA) is to be believed, the amount of carbon emissions from transport in ASEAN nations will double by 2050 At the same time, carbon emissions from transport in developed world will remain almost unchanged The current emissions from transport account for nearly one-fourth of the total amount of artificially released CO2 IEA predicts that the share of emissions from developing countries, which is 35 per cent today, will nearly double to 66 per cent by 2050 Therefore, we realise the impacts of Carbon Dioxide CO2 in our lives, especially to ASEAN countries, including Vietnam Our assignment is aimed at an analysis of effects of CO2 Besides, we use Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) to test and analyse the facts of ASEAN countries II OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY The objective of the study is to prove Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) with the figures of ASEAN countries We pointed out basic terms related to CO2 emissions and EKC, afterwards answering the following issues: How is the state of CO2 emissions and economy in ASEAN countries? 2 What is the main source of CO2 emissions? We analyse the effects of CO2 emissions in ASEAN countries Finally we suggest to implement policies to government as well as measurements to corporations Thereby, we will help corporations manage the quality of enivironment and make it better TERMINOLOGY I CO2 EMSSIONS Carbon dioxide (chemical formula CO2) is a colorless gas with a density about 60% higher than that of dry air Carbon dioxide consists of a carbon atom covalently double bonded to two oxygen atoms It occurs naturally in Earth's atmosphere as a trace gas Under all conditions found naturally on Earth, CO2 is an invisible, odorless gas It is removed from the atmosphere mostly by plants, which extract carbon from CO2 to build their tissues, and by the oceans, in which CO2 dissolves Emissions means the release of greenhouse gases and/or their precursors into the atmosphere over a specified area and period of time Carbon dioxide is the most significant long-lived greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming II ENVIRONMENT KUZNET CURVE The environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) The environmental Kuznets curve is a hypothesized relationship between various indicators of environmental degradation and income per capita In the early stages of economic growth degradation and pollution increase, but beyond some level of income per capita (which will vary for different indicators) the trend reverses, so that at high-income levels economic growth leads to environmental improvement This implies that the environmental impact indicator is an inverted U-shaped function of income per capita An example of an estimated EKC is shown in Figure Figure 1: An estimated Environment Kuznet Curve (EKC) The EKC is named for Kuznets (1955) who hypothesized income inequality first rises and then falls as economic development proceeds The Kuznets curve implies that as a nation undergoes industrialization – and especially the mechanization of agriculture – the center of the nation’s economy will shift to the cities As internal migration by farmers looking for better-paying jobs in urban hubs causes a significant rural-urban inequality gap (the owners of firms would be profiting, while laborers from those industries would see their incomes rise at a much slower rate and agricultural workers would possibly see their incomes decrease), rural populations decrease as urban populations increase Inequality is then expected to decrease when a certain level of average income is reached and the processes of industrialization – democratization and the rise of the welfare state – allow for the benefits from rapid growth, and increase the per-capita income Kuznets believed that inequality would follow an inverted “U” shape as it rises and then falls again with the increase of income per-capita Explanation of EKC shape A number of papers have developed theoretical models about how preferences and technology might interact to result in different time paths of environmental quality The different studies make different simplifying assumptions about the economy Most of these studies can generate an inverted U shape curve of pollution intensity but there is no inevitability about this The shape of the curve can be explained as follows: when GDP per capita rises, it leads to a degraded environment; However, when it reaches a certain point, increasing per capita GDP reduces environmental degradation At low levels of income, it is difficult to mitigate pollution because individuals tend to use limited income to meet their basic consumption needs When income levels reach a certain level, individuals begin to consider the choice between environmental and consumer quality, resulting in increased environmental damage but at a lower rate After reaching the conversion threshold, spending on waste treatment will increase, as each individual wishes to improve the quality of the environment by using more and the quality of the environment begins to improve along with economic growth Econometrics Framework According to “Environmental Kuznets Curve” article of David I.Stern, the standard models of EKC were functions of income levels, just as the regression model here in: ln (E/P)it=αi +γt+β1ln (GDP/ P)it+β2[ln (GDP/P)] it2 +εit, (1) In which: Variable E P GDP ε ln i t Description Emissions Population Gross domestic product Random error term Natural logarithms Regions Years Figure 2: A description of variables in the equation The author assumes that: In any country at a given income level, even if the level of emissions per capita is different, the elasticity of income remains the same A restriction is applied that regressions are only appropriate when the indicator levels fall to zero or become negative in the case of deforestation where afforestation can occur The point where emissions or concentrations are at a maximum, called “the turning point”, can be found using the formula: τ=exp [-β1/(2β2)] The writer said that when people studies the EKC, most of them try to estimate both the fixed and random effects models Whereas the fixed effects model can usually be estimated consistently, the data of countries and times are conditional Therefore, an EKC estimated with fixed effects using only data form developed countries might not say much about the future of developing countries On the other hand, many studies have found that the random effects model cannot be estimated consistently, and so it is unclear what we can infer from the majority of EKC studies CONTENT I MAIN SOURCES OF CO2 EMISSIONS There are both natural and human sources of carbon dioxide emissions Natural sources include decomposition, ocean release and respiration Human sources come from activities like cement production, deforestation as well as the burning of fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas Sources Natural Sources Human Sources Ocean Exchange Fossil Fuel Use Land Use Industry Process Soil Respiration Electricity Transportation Plant Animal Respiration Volcanic eruption Figure 3: Main sources of CO2 emissions Human resources Since the Industrial Revolution, human sources of carbon dioxide emissions have been growing Human activities such as the burning of oil, coal and gas, as well as deforestation are the primary cause of the increased carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere 87 percent of all human-produced carbon dioxide emissions come from the burning of fossil fuels like coal, natural gas and oil The remainder results from the clearing of forests and other land use changes (9%), as well as some industrial processes such as cement manufacturing (4%) 1.1 Fossil fuel combustion The largest human source of emissions, especially carbon dioxide is from the combustion of fossil fuels This produces 87% of human carbon dioxide emissions Burning Figure 4: Human sources of Carbon Dioxide these fuels releases energy which is most commonly turned into heat, electricity or power for transportation Some examples of where they are used are in power plants, cars, planes and industrial facilities In 2011, fossil fuel use created 33.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide The types of fossil fuels that are used the most are coal, natural gas and oil Coal is responsible for 43% of carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion, 36% is produced by oil and 20% from natural gas Coal is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel For every tonne of coal burned, approximately 2.5 tonnes of CO2e are produced Of all the different types of fossil fuels, coal produces the most carbon dioxide Because of this and it's high rate of use, coal is the largest fossil fuel source of carbon dioxide Figure 5: Carbon Dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion emissions Coal represents one-third of fossil fuels' share of world total primary energy supply but is responsible for 43% of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use During 2000–2010, total primary energy demand in Brunei Darussalam increased at 7.6% per year, reaching 1.20 Mtoe in 2010 from 0.57 Mtoe in 2000 The per capita primary energy demand of Brunei Darussalam (7.92 tons of oil equivalent [toe] per person in 2010) is the highest among the members of the Asian Development Bank Singapore’s total primary energy demand grew at a rate of 5.0% (2005–2010)—slightly lower than the GDP rate—reaching 23.7 Mtoe in 2010 Oil was the main imported fuel with a share of 66.5% in 2010, followed by natural gas at 32.9% Per capita primary energy demand of Singapore represents a relatively high level at 4.67 toe per person in 2010, compared with Southeast Asia’s average of 0.93 toe in the same year, as it reflects the refinery crude oil input requirements that are re-exported Electricity Electricity and heat generation is the economic sector that produces the largest amount of manmade carbon dioxide emissions This sector produced 41% of fossil fuel related carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 Around the world, this sector relies heavily on coal, the most carbon-intensive of fossil fuels, explaining this sector giant carbon footprint In Brunei, electricity generation reached 3.60 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2010, up 41.6% from 2000 Per capita electricity generation was about 9,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) per year, almost eight times the Southeast Asia group’s average of 1,153 kWh per person In Brunei Darussalam, electricity production is essentially all gas-fired However, as these simple gas turbine plants have low operating ratios, the average generation efficiency was only 25.4% in 2010 There are efforts under way to upgrade plant efficiency by introducing more advanced combined-cycle generation technologies The first gas-fired combined-cycle power plant of 110 megawatts (MW) was completed in 2007, and the second to fourth phases, each with a capacity of 200 MW, are also being planned Transportation The transportation sector is the second largest source of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions Transporting goods and people around the world produced 22% of fossil fuel related carbon dioxide emissions in 2010 This sector is very energy intensive and it uses petroleum based fuels (gasoline, diesel, kerosene, etc.) almost exclusively to meet those needs Since the 1990s, transport related emissions have grown rapidly, increasing by 45% in less than decades Road transport accounts for 72% of this sector's carbon dioxide emissions Automobiles, freight and light-duty trucks are the main sources of emissions for the whole transport sector and emissions from these three have steadily grown since 1990 Apart from road vehicles, the other important sources of emissions for this sector are marine shipping and global aviation Marine shipping produces 14% of all transport carbon dioxide emissions While there are a lot less ships than road vehicles used in the transportation sector, ships burn the dirtiest fuel on the market, a fuel that is so unrefined that it can be solid enough to be walked across at room temperature Because of this, marine shipping is responsible for over billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions This is more than the annual emissions of several industrialized countries (Germany, South Korea, Canada, UK, etc.) and this sector continues to grow rapidly Global aviation accounts for 11% of all transport carbon dioxide emissions International flights create about 62% of these emissions with domestic flights representing the remaining 38% Over the last 10 years, aviation has been one of the fastest growing sources of carbon dioxide emissions.Aviation is also the most carbon-intensive form of transportation, so it's growth comes with a heavy impact on climate change In fact, Indonesia’s transport energy demand will grow, nearly doubling the 2010 level to reach 68.6 Mtoe in 2035 Vehicle ownership will increase as it has not yet reached saturation level Much of the transport energy needs will be fueled by oil, which will account for 96% of the transport energy demand in 2035 Industrial sector The industrial sector is the third largest source of man-made carbon dioxide emissions This sector produced 20% of fossil fuel related carbon dioxide emissions in 2010.The industrial sector consists of manufacturing, construction, mining, and agriculture Manufacturing is the largest of the and can be broken down into main categories: paper, food, petroleum refineries, chemicals, and metal/mineral products These categories account for the vast majority of the fossil fuel use and CO2 emissions by this sector Natural Sources Figure 6: Natural sources of Carbon Dioxide 2.1 Ocean-atmosphere exchange The largest natural source of carbon dioxide emissions is from ocean-atmosphere exchange This produces 42.84% of natural carbon dioxide emissions The oceans contain dissolved carbon dioxide, which is released into the air at the sea surface Annually this process creates about 330 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions 2.2 Plant and animal respiration An important natural source of carbon dioxide is plant and animal respiration, which accounts for 28.56% of natural emissions Carbon dioxide is a byproduct of the chemical reaction that plants and animals use to produce the energy they need Annually this process creates about 220 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions Plants and animals use respiration to produce energy, which is used to fuel basic activities like movement and growth The process uses oxygen to break down nutrients like sugars, proteins and fats This releases energy that can be used by the organism but also creates water and carbon dioxide as byproducts 2.3 Soil respiration and decomposition Another important natural source of carbon dioxide is soil respiration and decomposition, which accounts for 28.56% of natural emissions Many organisms that live in the Earth's soil use respiration to produce energy Amongst them are decomposers who break down dead organic material Both of these processes releases carbon dioxide as a byproduct Annually these soil organisms create about 220 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions Any respiration that occurs below-ground is considered soil respiration Plant roots, bacteria, fungi and soil animals use respiration to create the energy they need to survive but this also produces carbon dioxide Decomposers that work underground breaking down organic matter (like dead trees, leaves and animals) are also included in this Carbon dioxide is regularly released during decomposition 2.4 Volcanic eruptions A minor amount carbon dioxide is created by volcanic eruptions, which accounts for 0.03% of natural emissions Volcanic eruptions release magma, ash, dust and gases from deep below the Earth's surface One of the gases released is carbon dioxide Annually this process creates about 0.15 to 0.26 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions The most common volcanic gases are water vapor, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide Volcanic activity will cause magma to absorb these gases, while passing through the Earth's mantle and crust During eruptions, the gases are then released into the atmosphere II STATE OF ECONOMY AND CO2 EMISSION IN ASEAN COUNTRIES State and classification of economy in ASEAN countries Using the STATA, we report summary statistics of the variables used in estimation Obs Mean Std Dev Min Indonesia GDP per capita 27 1763.757 1145.277 493.9996 Per capita CO2 emission 27 1.501576 4206229 8243417 Per capita NOx emission 27 0005964 0003097 0003693 Per capita Methane emission 27 0013103 0007579 0008038 Myanmar GDP per capita 27 465.7202 448.0599 30.124 Per capita CO2 emission 27 2341568 1266871 1014898 Per capita NOx emission 27 0007543 0002496 0004802 Per capita Methane emission 27 0017153 000256 0014518 Thailand GDP per capita 27 3414.44 1589.233 1508.286 Per capita CO2 emission 27 3.371261 9357789 1.604832 Per capita NOx emission 27 0003611 0000607 0002967 Per capita Methane emission 27 0014582 0000957 0013087 Vietnam GDP per capita 27 816.823 675.2513 94.8802 Per capita CO2 emission 27 1.006581 5610637 3019469 Per capita NOx emission 27 0002827 0000722 0001759 Max 3687.954 2.55975 0018237 0045007 1260.422 69142 0013808 0025133 6171.262 4.89124 0004785 0016046 2170.648 1.9659 000389 Per capita Methane emission Lao PDR GDP per capita Per capita CO2 emission Per capita NOx emission Per capita Methane emission 27 0010863 0001585 0009031 0012819 27 27 27 27 768.6949 1863798 0011527 0019506 669.4507 1012557 0006836 0006051 203.256 0499442 0005157 0013547 2338.692 4319 0033192 0038263 Philippines GDP per capita 27 1518.058 750.882 715.1419 2951.072 Per capita CO2 emission 27 8870223 1202725 6741768 1.20324 Per capita NOx emission 27 0001459 0000145 000121 000175 Per capita Methane emission 27 0006206 0000277 0005727 0006707 Malaysia GDP per capita 27 6067.925 2886.458 2440.592 11183.73 Per capita CO2 emission 27 6.205314 1.443808 3.137366 8.16593 Per capita NOx emission 27 0006114 0001146 0004917 0008898 Per capita Methane emission 27 0013018 0001147 0011748 0017019 Cambodia GDP per capita 27 545.8595 331.1338 201.914 1269.907 Per capita CO2 emission 27 2437486 1207823 1363453 54313 Per capita NOx emission 27 0006866 0003813 0002711 001656 Per capita Methane emission 27 0018351 0005069 0012331 0030245 BruneiDaru~m GDP per capita 27 24779.53 11393.18 12690.69 47651.26 Per capita CO2 emission 27 18.265 4.302042 11.98024 24.60718 Per capita NOx emission 27 0015819 0013108 0008565 0075916 Per capita Methane emission 27 0127099 0022026 0113556 0224403 Singapore GDP per capita 27 32446.76 14339.32 11864.28 56336.07 Per capita CO2 emission 27 11.04215 3.312333 4.342606 18.04087 Per capita NOx emission 27 0005652 0004046 0002937 0019217 Per capita Methane emission 27 000448 0000527 0003219 0005332 GDP per capita measured in 2016 US Per capita CO2 emission measured in metric ton/capita Per capita NOx emission measured in thousand ton of CO2 equivalent/ capita) Per capita Methane emission measured in kiloton of CO2 equivalent/ capita) Figure 7: Summary Statistic of GDP per capita and some emissions per capita in ASEAN countries For the 10 ASEAN countries as a whole, the mean per capita GDP during 1990–2016 was 72,587.57 US measured in 2016 US prices The maximum per capita GDP was 56,336.07 US recorded in Singapore while the minimum was 30.124 US recorded in Myanmar Singapore is more developed than other countries Over the 27-year period, average per capita GDP of Singapore is 70 times the lowest average per capita GDP which is 467 US in Myanmar It is obvious that the gap between Singapore and the other ASEAN countries is very much and has further expanded over years In the recent years, Singapore is one of high income leveled countries in Asia as well as in over all the world As far as per capita emission is concerned, large gaps also exist between 10 the means, minimums, and maximums Based on those data collected and World Bank Atlas method, there are types of countries: high income, upper - midddle income and low middle income as the following table: High Income ($12,235 or more ) Singapore, Brunei Upper middle Income ($3,956 - $12,235) Thailand, Malaysia Low middle Income ($1,006 $3,955) Vietnam, Lao, Cambodia, Philippines, Myanmar, Indonesia Figure 8:Classification of ASEAN countries in terms of income level In general, economic growth in Singapore and Vietnam has exceeded other ASEAN countries but remained far behind the extremely rapid growth of GDP in China where GDP in 2005 was over ten times higher than in 1980 Other “ASEAN tigers” include Malaysia and Thailand where economic growth has been similar to India, with economic growth faster than in the United States, Japan, and OECD Europe Only Philippines and Brunei have remained at modest “western” level in terms of economic growth State of CO2 emssions in ASEAN countries Country Name CO2 per capita Population 1990 2016 Growth 1990 2016 Growth Indonesia 0.824342 1.79413 117.64% 1.81E+08 2.61E+08 43.92% Myanmar 0.105245 0.69142 556.96% 40626250 52885223 30.18% Thailand 1.604832 4.89124 204.78% 56582821 68863514 21.70% Vietnam 0.313855 1.9659 526.37% 66016700 92701100 40.42% Lao PDR 0.049944 0.4319 764.76% 4258472 6758353 58.70% Philippines 0.674177 1.20324 78.48% 61947348 1.03E+08 66.79% Malaysia 3.137366 8.16593 160.28% 18038321 31187265 72.89% Cambodia 0.140577 0.50134 256.63% 8973342 15762370 75.66% Brunei Darussalam 23.93324 23.96384 0.13% 258785 423196 63.53% Singapore 14.60238 10.24928 -29.81% 3047132 5607283 84.02% Figure 9: An analysis of CO2 per capita and population in ASEAN countries 2.1 CO2 per capita in high income countries tends to decline but the total is still high It is clear that the levels of many pollutants per capita have declined in developed countries over time with increasingly stringent environmental regulations and technical innovations Comparing to the CO2 per capita in 1990, this indicator of Singapore in 2016 declined by 29.81% Brunei Darussalam almost kept it stable Taking a deep analysis, we can see that the population of Brunei growed by around 63% from 1990 to 2016 Therefore, it is undoubtedly the total emissions increased sharply over years This is a result of the oil industry development of this nation The mix of emissions has shifted from methane and nitrogen oxides to carbon dioxide so that aggregate waste is still high and per capita waste is still high Economic activity is inevitably environmentally disruptive in some way Satisfying the material needs of people requires the use and disturbance of energy flows and materials 11 2.2 Growth rate of CO2 emission per capita in low income countries are out of control In terms of emissions, between 1990 and 2016, all countries experienced increased CO2 emissions and population in total However, that is not similar to the CO2 per capita In the recent years, the CO2 per capita in Singapore tends to decrease Adversely, the low middle income leveled countries, namly Myanmar, Vietnam and Lao PDR are those with the most increase in CO2 per capita Its growth of Vietnam, Myanmar and Lao PDR is respectively 526%, 556.96% and 764.76% We can see that to middle income countries, growth rate of CO2 emissions is approximately – times that of population Although high income countries also experienced a population boom and urbanization (for example the population of Singapore has increased around 84% since 1990), the CO2 per capita of some countries has even decreased recently During this period, it is witnessed that these three countries were able to cross their income threshold (that is, Indonesia became the lower-middle income country, while Thailand and Malaysia became upper-middle income countries) by aggressively promoted their economy toward exports of industrial products There are some reasons for the out of control increase of CO2 emissions per capital of low – income ASEAN countries as follows:  Technical Constraints In most low income or developing countries, there typically is a lack of human resources at both the national and local levels with technical expertise necessary for emissions management planning and operation Many officers in charge of emssions management, particularly at the local level, have little or no technical background or training in engineering or management Another technical constraint in developing countries is the lack of overall plans for emissions management at the local and national levels As a result, a emssions management technology is often selected without due consideration to its appropriateness in the overall management system Research and development activities in solid waste management are often a low priority in developing countries The lack of research and development activities in developing countries leads to the selection of inappropriate technology in terms of the local climatic and physical conditions, financial and human resource capabilities, and social or cultural acceptability As a result, the technology selected can never be used  Financial Constraints Emissions management is given a very low priority in developing countries, except perhaps in capital and large cities As a result, very limited funds are provided to the solid waste management sector by the governments, and the levels of services required for protection of public health and the environment are not attained The problem is acute at the local government level where the local taxation system is inadequately developed and, therefore, the financial basis for public services, including emissions management, is weak  Institutional Constraints The lack of effective legislation for emissions management, which is a norm in most developing countries, is partially responsible for the roles/functions of the relevant national agencies not being clearly defined and the lack of coordination among them The rules and regulations are enforced 12 by the different agencies However, there are often duplication of responsibilities of the agencies involved and gaps/missing elements in the regulatory provisions for the development of effective solid waste  Social Constraints Low income leveled countries face certain cultural and social restrictions regarding the emission management systems There are certain norms in society that allow only a certain social group or social class of people to handle and deal with emissions This limits the size of the work force for emissions management Numerous countries prohibit the direct handling of human waste and cocomposting of refuse and human waste These social constraints limit emissions management in an efficient manner III TESTING THE ENVIRONMENT KUZNET CURVE (EKC) IN ASEAN COUNTRIES We performed graphs on two groups: the low middle-income group, the upper middle and high income group High and upper middle income ASEAN countries Figure 10: An Environment Kuznet Curve of high and upper middle income ASEAN countries 13 Based on the econometrics framework of David I.Stern, we use STATA to analyse the data collection from high income and upper middle income ASEAN countries including Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia and Thailand The outcome of statistics leads to a log – log model: ln(CO2percapita) = 4.76 ln(GDPpercapita) - 0.229 ln(GDPpercapita)2– 22.12 It could be interpreted that 1% change in GDP per capita can lead to 4.76% change in CO2 per capita in high income countries if all remains constant The shape of the graph reflects each stage of development of high – income countries The evolution pattern of the economy is characterized by a pattern of change in economic activity    Stage 1: High income countries was also low – income ones in the past Therefore, they concentrated resources for primary sectors (mining, agriculture) to meet consumer demand Stage 2: Resources are shifted to secondary (production) sectors, because basic needs are met and consumption is more directed towards consumer products Moreover, natural resources of high income countries become more and more scarce and they are no longer suitable for argriculture or mining industry, moving from low-productivity to the more productive industrial sector, where average income is higher and wages are less uniform Stage 3: Society moving from the secondary to the third (higher level - service) is characterized by very low levels of pollution Low – middle ASEAN countries 14 Figure 11: An Environment Kuznet Curve of low middle income ASEAN countries Because the variable ln(GDPpercapita) is insignificant with the confidence of 90%, so we removed that variable and have the new model with the increase of adjust R2: 15 The same method is used to analyse the data collection from low middle income ASEAN countries including Vietnam, Cambodia, Philippines, Myanmar, Lao PDR, Indonesia The outcome of statistics leads to a log – log model: ln(CO2percapita) = 0.749 ln(GDPpercapita) – 5.665 It could be interpreted that 1% increase in GDP per capita can lead to 0.749% increase in CO2 per capita in low – middle income countries To some extents, the graph follows the hypothesis of Environment Kuznet Curve (EKC) In the recent years, low middle income countries and low countries gradually become gigiantic manufacturing industrial areas in the recent years IV THE EFFECTS OF CO2 EMISSION ON THE DEVELOPMENT IN ASEAN COUNTRIES The main and the most noticeable effect of emission is the global warming Carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and fluorinated gases all help trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere as a part of the greenhouse effect Greenhouse effect Greenhouse gas levels have been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution, but over the last few decades growth has been particularly fast Total greenhouse gas emissions have increased by about 80% since 1970 With increasing levels of greenhouse gases being added daily, the greenhouse effect is now enhanced to the point where too much heat is being kept in the Earth's atmosphere The heat trapped by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases has increased surface temperatures by 0.75°C (1.4°F) over the last 100 years These changes have affected many regions of the world, including Southeast Asia (IPCC, 2007) The latter has witnessed climatic changes which affected the areas of water resources, agricultural production, forestry, and industry To deal with, the ASEAN region has noticed climate changes in the first half of the 20th century Like other regions in the world, the average temperature in ASEAN countries has been subject to increase by a degree from 0.1 to 0.3° C per decade over the last 50 years Figure 12: Temperature changes in ASEAN countries From the data in the table above, there is evidence that temperature increases became more pronounced in recent years in the ASEAN region In Indonesia, it is reported that the mean temperature recorded in Jakarta increased about 04° C per century in January (the wet season) and 40° C per century in July (the dry season) This, in fact, has caused snow, which covers Mount Jayawijaya of Irian Jaya, to disappear, as a clear evidence of the coming of the warming period Meanwhile, the Philippines has noticed increases in the mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures up to 14° C per decade (IPCC, 2007) Also, climate studies have supported this 16 evidence by revealing increases in the average temperatures (from 1961 to 1990) from 0.61° C to 0.34° C and 0.89° C Accordingly, the frequency of hot days and warm nights has increased, in addition to the fact that the number of cold days and cool nights decreased In Singapore, temperature increased by 0.6° C from 1987 to 2007 (about 0.3° C per decade) In accordance with the global trend, temperature in Thailand increased, ranging between 0.10° C and 0.18° C per decade The country has experienced an average daytime temperature of up to 40° C, especially in April In Viet Nam, the annual average temperature increased by 0.1° C (1900 – 2000), and 0.7°C to 0.14°C from 1951 to 2000 So, since temperature rose faster in the latter half of the century, summers have become hotter in recent years, with average monthly temperatures increasing from 0.1 to 0.3°C per decade Sign of greenhouse consequence:     Desertification Increased melting of snow and ice Sea level rise Stronger storms and extreme events Ocean acidification Increases in carbon dioxide levels have made the world's oceans 30% more acidic since the Industrial Revolution The ocean serves as a sink for this gas and absorbs about a quarter of human carbon dioxide emissions, which then goes on to react with seawater to form carbonic acid So as the level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere rises, the acidification of the oceans increases Changes to plant nutrition & growth levels Since plants need carbon dioxide to grow, if there are higher amounts in the air, plant growth can increase Experiments where carbon dioxide concentrations were raised by around 50% increased crop growth by around 15% Higher levels of carbon dioxide makes carbon more available, but plants also need other nutrients (like nitrogen, phosphorus, etc.) to grow and survive Without increases in those nutrients as well, the nutritional quality of many plants will decrease In different experiments with elevated carbon dioxide levels, protein concentrations in wheat, rice, barley, and potato tubers, decreased by 5-14% Smog & ozone pollution Over the last century, global background ozone concentrations have become times larger due mainly to increases in methane and nitrogen oxides caused by human emissions At ground level, ozone is an air pollutant that is a major component of smog which is dangerous for both humans and plants Long-term ozone exposure has also been shown to reduce life expectancy 362000-700000 of annual premature cardiopulmonary deaths worldwide are attributable to ozone Recent studies estimate that the global yields of key staple crops, like soybean, maize (corn), and wheat, are being reduced by 2-15% due to present-day ozone exposure Ozone layer depletion Nitrous oxide damages the ozone layer and is now the most important ozone depleting substance and the largest cause of ozone layer depletion This is because CFCs and many other gases that are harmful for the ozone layer were banned by the Montreal Protocol (MP) which has reduced their 17 atmospheric concentration Nitrous oxide is not restricted by the MP, so while the levels of other ozone depleting substances are declining, nitrous oxide levels are continuing to grow V CHALLENGES OF REDUCING CO2 EMISSION IN ASEAN COUNTRIES It is important to consider the economic prosperity, social development and environmental preservation background for discussing the challenges of reducing CO2 emission and utilization combined with sustainable energy development in ASEAN Challenges come from three areas The first area is accessibility and affordability 56% of ASEAN people are actually living in the rural areas, and most of them use traditional biomass Therefore, the first priority is to ensure the need of energy in the ASEAN people At meanwhile, an appropriate incentive scheme is necessary for supply affordable energy Besides, the vital thing is how to encourage ASEAN people to use renewable energy Thereby, we will create a sustainable economy with the low level of CO2 emission The second area is sustainability Technology is the main factor that is going to change our aspect of bringing cleaner energy ASEAN is relying on more developed countries to bring their technologies into the area At the same time, the knowhow and the requirement for the support system to make the technology sustainable over a long period has to be developed within ASEAN There are also non-technical issues ASEAN at some point needs to go into the development design of other technology issues that suits their countries VI RECOMMENDATIONS From the finding and analysis section we recommend the following proposals: Government should take urgent climate-conscious decisions It is obvious that the strong and urgent action needed to lessen the impact of climate change will require much human resources and expenditures Climate change should be a totally non-partisan issue since it affects all people and all countries People should attach much importance to energy efficiency We all unintentionally waste energy as leaving the lights on all day, turning on air conditioner even though the weather is not bad, or turning on the TV unused Such bad habit can be easily broken to reduce individual carbon footprint It not only can save the environment but also save our money in use Public transportation should be wisely used As living standard increase with the economic growth, people are depending too much on cars Undoubtedly large cities face up with heavy traffic and serious air pollution Public transportation is the most effective way to reduce the CO2 emissions and saving taxes on environment problems But in fact, public transport is in short of investment to enhance the service and support large volumes of commuters That is another problems the government have to deal with We should use local recycling service rather than throw too much away and recycle too litle of what discarded The ability of natural support is not eternal , large amounts of energy and water go into use endlessly will probably leave us less resources to use in the future It is recommended to avoid buying useless trinkets and get tools fixed rather than replaced, as the carbon footprint is fare lower than making new thing from scratch Plant more tree is classic but one of the most efficient ways to cut individual carbon footprint Trees provide shade and oxygen while consuming carbon dioxide According to the scientists, a single young tree absorbs 13 pounds of carbon dioxide each year That 18 amount will climb up to 48 pounds annually as trees mature Just one 10-year-old tree releases enough oxygen into the air to support two human beings Buying local products is surprisingly an effective method Considered food miles are now a part of new carbon lingo, as carbon dioxides are emitted to food during storage Purchasing foods that are both in season and grown locally can drastically cut down the carbon emissions of the vehicles used to transport your winter watermelon across the country Research shows that travels 1,500 miles on average between the farm and the supermarket VII CONCLUSION Through the above data collecting, analysis and literature review with practical research, this research has shown the general hazards of carbon dioxide and the usage of Environment Kuznets Curve We emphasize the relation of carbon dioxide to global warming Concentrations of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere surged to a record high in 2016, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) From empirical models, we include variables such as fossil fuel combustion, transportation sector, industrial processes as factors increase CO2 concentrations Moreover, this problem has become serious to the ASEAN countries Especially those developing countries, estimated 35 percents the share of emissions will redouble to 66 percents by 2050 Concentrating on recycling progress along with controlling human industrial activities is the key to improve the quality of the environment We use a structured model to explain the relation between economic development and deterioration in the environment Furthermore it could implicate other pollutants and human activities for other factors, and construct longterm plan to reduce carbon dioxide concentrations APPENDIX CO2 per capita of 10 ASEAN countries 1990 – 2016 (metric tons per capita) Indonesia Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Lao PDR Philippines Malaysia Cambodia Brunei Singapore 1990 0.824342 0.105245 1.604832 0.313855 0.049944 0.674177 3.137366 0.140577 23.93324 14.60238 1991 0.973538 0.10149 1.742674 0.307904 0.053581 0.691729 3.701741 0.140568 19.94117 14.43953 1992 1.078875 0.117189 1.898046 0.301947 0.057012 0.749173 3.96041 0.140254 19.0335 14.98945 1993 1.14523 0.126578 2.140831 0.31707 0.055521 0.74242 4.704941 0.139054 17.63538 15.44835 1994 1.141629 0.146209 2.362564 0.354819 0.058018 0.803087 4.703626 0.143262 16.21193 18.04087 1995 1.142077 0.16097 2.708838 0.386845 0.071799 0.869338 5.910148 0.145598 16.11451 11.96598 1996 1.266993 0.16571 2.996686 0.453929 0.096166 0.870068 5.963603 0.147277 15.98225 13.53932 1997 1.373879 0.169005 3.054653 0.582292 0.120384 0.973905 5.788042 0.136345 16.21745 15.39236 1998 1.041246 0.17968 2.668098 0.605629 0.133132 0.92699 5.163674 0.168209 16.50726 12.37954 1999 1.159992 0.196961 2.826761 0.600733 0.177008 0.905992 4.763997 0.159534 11.98024 12.64782 2000 1.245242 0.218848 2.879233 0.668172 0.176149 0.939935 5.422937 0.162644 14.1402 12.16662 2001 1.374818 0.187093 3.062483 0.753512 0.161185 0.891879 5.722641 0.181539 13.25057 11.97222 19 2002 1.410234 0.195329 3.251319 0.863947 0.209456 0.876902 5.526835 0.17472 12.6227 11.31023 2003 1.436404 0.206738 3.47881 0.951896 0.197163 0.860221 6.410086 0.18516 12.99159 7.566014 2004 1.509898 0.258661 3.741227 1.084063 0.245994 0.874674 6.507753 0.187233 13.90209 6.833826 2005 1.508481 0.239235 3.782434 1.164096 0.244083 0.867379 6.800116 0.209184 13.70764 7.116921 2006 1.501577 0.263052 3.829104 1.207429 0.265182 0.770906 6.414692 0.222614 13.13286 6.997632 2007 1.611855 0.261835 3.813656 1.221016 0.152848 0.808236 6.941256 0.253374 22.45018 4.342606 2008 1.763895 0.198099 3.793534 1.360812 0.156321 0.86895 7.525778 0.280827 24.04688 7.466762 2009 1.865165 0.205438 4.001129 1.469013 0.20445 0.841112 7.20425 0.330259 20.48625 11.21442 2010 1.767908 0.249531 4.194782 1.61336 0.26242 0.905496 7.771555 0.350331 21.10595 10.96041 2011 2.456845 0.282824 4.121389 1.701422 0.256491 0.897334 7.697016 0.358177 24.60718 8.723797 2012 2.55975 0.217129 4.371765 1.572338 0.264657 0.941559 7.497559 0.369259 24.18076 6.846758 2013 1.945094 0.249963 4.403808 1.609112 0.242789 0.996425 7.961514 0.372981 19.23359 10.31198 2014 1.819363 0.4166 4.62186 1.803566 0.297201 1.055457 8.032992 0.43776 22.1247 10.30633 2015 1.8241 0.5114 4.7823 1.94302 0.3914 1.14302 8.14301 0.54313 23.65123 10.30651 2016 1.79413 0.69142 4.89124 1.9659 0.4319 1.20324 8.16593 0.50134 23.96384 10.24928 APPENDIX GDP per capita of 10 ASEAN countries 1990 – 2016 (measured in 2016 US dollars) Indonesia Myanmar Thailand Vietnam Lao PDR Philippines Malaysia Cambodia Brunei Singapore 1990 622.8660 30.1240 1508.2858 94.8802 203.2560 715.3106 2440.5918 201.9140 13604.1568 11864.2802 1991 672.5881 50.1430 1715.6381 137.9826 234.7194 715.1419 2652.1442 220.9140 13901.7217 14505.0204 1992 725.9761 90.4110 1926.9875 138.7168 250.4922 814.0753 3111.9769 238.1290 15270.4861 16144.0082 1993 881.3617 110.4320 2208.3453 181.6549 287.1876 815.7222 3431.3702 254.1791 14572.1085 18302.4304 1994 971.1076 130.4520 2490.3115 220.3100 325.6292 939.1559 3726.3407 270.6092 14117.3921 21578.4605 1995 1092.6972 135.4320 2845.4103 275.7506 363.4716 1061.3479 4328.0000 323.0100 15929.1638 24936.8308 1996 1210.9481 151.6920 3042.9040 322.8570 377.9713 1159.5893 4797.2914 319.3633 16789.0372 26263.0163 1997 1132.5625 155.9230 2467.4929 346.5790 345.4969 1127.0037 4637.3205 304.8380 16656.0899 26386.4575 1998 493.9996 160.6100 1845.4662 346.8272 248.5414 966.7084 3263.5210 269.0546 12690.6893 21824.0356 1999 714.5453 188.0000 2032.9921 361.2944 277.4951 1087.2374 3493.4652 295.9736 14097.9316 21795.6970 2000 830.5846 193.1875 2007.5648 388.2705 324.8450 1038.9110 4045.1705 300.6851 18008.4483 23792.6071 2001 796.3959 138.9249 1893.1454 402.8251 326.6408 957.2807 3915.1150 321.2263 16468.1289 21577.0782 2002 957.7806 143.7760 2096.0546 427.8380 319.8271 1000.0681 4167.3644 339.0677 16846.0220 22016.8328 2003 1133.4113 219.7823 2358.9306 477.9895 362.6253 1010.5532 4463.6759 362.4214 18555.5665 23573.6280 2004 1222.9118 219.8157 2659.8391 543.8659 417.7517 1079.0372 4955.4777 408.6105 21896.6053 27405.2714 2005 1342.5442 247.2427 2893.6514 683.5968 475.4165 1194.6972 5593.8230 474.2239 26102.1335 29869.8540 2006 1688.8743 296.9007 3368.9526 779.9749 590.3013 1391.7723 6222.9830 539.8792 30980.9669 33579.8595 2007 1975.1674 410.4500 3972.2065 901.3249 709.7671 1672.6854 7269.1711 631.6758 32672.3672 39223.5819 2008 2300.3707 643.9514 4378.6874 1143.2686 899.4951 1919.4662 8513.6295 745.7878 37951.2806 39721.0482 2009 2400.3676 741.0777 4212.0549 1210.6911 948.1276 1825.3415 7326.7444 738.2327 27965.4750 38577.5582 20 2010 3113.4806 987.7366 5075.3022 1310.3703 1141.1271 2129.4992 9071.3570 785.6929 35268.1012 46569.6795 2011 3634.2768 1186.4239 5491.1600 1515.4799 1381.4256 2352.5182 10405.1206 882.4901 47017.0273 53166.6758 2012 3687.9540 1175.5618 5859.9156 1722.6839 1588.6331 2581.8186 10779.5075 950.0244 47651.2591 54431.1620 2013 3620.6640 1171.4645 6171.2624 1871.3255 1838.8060 2760.2891 10882.2891 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