Less-is-More-Highlights-03.02.12-V-1.1

Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge comments and help with figures and sources, including from David Andrews, Stephen Andrews, Bill Bordass, Alan Clarke, Bob Everett, Nick Grant, Phil Jones, Bob Lowe, William Orchard, Richard Priestley, Mark Siddall, Fionn Stevenson, Gordon Taylor and David Toke Such contributions are much appreciated But any remaining errors are ours alone We acknowledge too the leading research, development and demonstration programs on energy efficiency and renewable energy funded by national or local governments since 1974, along with private sector work which was catalysed by this public sector enthusiasm and implicit support These funders include inter alia many federal and local governments, especially in the USA, Canada, Sweden, Denmark, Switzerland, Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Norway and Finland These contributions continue to this day Without them, one would not be so positive about the feasibility of a sustainable energy future We also thank those on the above list who took the time to review this report, especially Bob Lowe They provided very useful comments indeed, which greatly helped to improve both the content and the presentation In addition, we are extremely grateful to Will Anderson for his help in writing an executive summary which succinctly sums up a complex message David Olivier and Andy Simmonds, January 2012 Cover photograph: Earth’s atmosphere viewed edge on from space Image courtesy of NASA About the Authors David Olivier is Principal of Energy Advisory Associates, a consultancy focusing on the application of energy efficiency and renewable energy technologies in buildings Over the past 30 years he has assisted in the design of hundreds of low energy buildings including the Elizabeth Fry Building at the University of East Anglia, the headquarters of Disability Essex in Rochford and many dwellings for private clients He has written extensively on energy efficiency and renewable energy in buildings and has taken a particular interest in advanced building practice in mainland Europe, Scandinavia and North America His books include Energy Efficiency and Renewables: Recent Experience on Mainland Europe and Energy Efficiency and Renewables: Recent North American Experience Andrew Simmonds is a Partner in Simmonds.Mills Architects and part-time Chief Executive of AECB, The Sustainable Building Association His architectural and building experience covers historic buildings, innovative and traditional materials and the development of energy efficiency products for the mass market Simmonds.Mills Architects designs low-energy domestic and non-domestic projects to the AECB Silver, Passivhaus and EnerPHit energy standards Andrew led the development of the AECB energy standards and initiated the AECB CarbonLite programme He also led the AECB team supporting the Technology Strategy Board’s ‘Retrofit for the Future’ competition, including developing the low energy buildings database, and was closely involved in setting up the Passivhaus Trust to bring to the mainstream the work of AECB CarbonLite LESS IS MORE owes a good deal to a series of three earlier reports which appeared after the 1970s’ first and second oil crises These studies were in part governmentfunded: • An Alternative Energy Scenario for the UK • A Low Energy Strategy for the UK • Energy-Efficient Futures: Opening the Solar Option and LIM is written in the context of other recent studies of the UK’s energy future, which include: • Zero Carbon Britain 2030 • Sustainable Energy Without the Hot Air • Scenarios for 2050 - A Key Scene Setting Report and Disclaimer AECB Ltd and the authors consider that the information and opinions given in this work are sound, but all parties must rely upon their own skill and judgment when making use of it Neither AECB Ltd nor the authors make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this report, and they assume no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of such information Neither AECB Ltd nor the authors assume any liability to anyone for any loss or damage arising out of the provision of this report Throughout this report, the copyright holders are acknowledged wherever possible in relation to individual pictures and charts, and AECB is grateful for their permission to use their material Where no acknowledgement is made, a chart should be attributed to the authors If any errors have been made, AECB apologises to those affected and would be glad to correct the mistake(s) in a subsequent edition Contents Foreword Targets 25 Without energy, industrial society would grind to a halt The present input of cheap, relatively high-grade energy in the form of fossil fuels has brought a more comfortable life to billions of people People tend to forget that our standard of living is arguably much more related to the oil and natural gas flowing freely from the ground for the last 50-100 years than to our innate ingenuity, social organisation or economic or banking systems, which have been around for centuries, if not millennia 37 The UK has already been through a series of transitions to cheaper, more concentrated and/or more convenient energy sources Coal steadily replaced wood in quantity in the 18th century Its consumption grew rapidly all through the 19th century The UK experienced its “peak coal” in 1913, followed by its peak oil in 1999 and peak gas in 2000 40 UK coal, oil and natural gas are all past their peak production, so the obvious question is: “What comes next”? As we attempt to move away from fossil fuels towards “sustainable energy”, for climate change and resource depletion reasons, what will fuel industrial society Will it be: .42 New Buildings .63 Existing Buildings 65 Anon, How Much Bio-Energy can Europe Produce Without Harming the Environment? Report No 283 7/2006 Energy Environment Agency, Brussels (8 June 2006) 283 Electric Heating Generally 195 Resistance Heating .196 Heat Pumps 197 Discussion 199 Foreword LESS IS MORE: Energy Security after Oil (LIM) comes at the end of an unprecedented 15 years in UK energy policy history It began with the formal acceptance of the need for a climate change policy by the last Conservative Government in 1997 and th culminated with the Climate Change Act and the Carbon Budget LIM is a significant new contribution to the debate Thirty years ago, David Olivier was responsible for what was arguably the first detailed energy scenario building exercise aimed at decarbonising the UK economy In the subsequent three decades, he has continued to work in energy, in the main helping to design individual building projects and writing reports for private clients, plus occasional books Over this period, he has been responsible for some of the UK's most energy-efficient buildings Over this time, he has maintained a network of contact and collaboration with colleagues across the northern hemisphere This gives him unrivalled familiarity with energy demand reduction and supply options, especially in Scandinavia, mainland Europe, Canada and the USA These open up and clarify a broader spectrum of strategic options than those in UK technology and policy-making circles have considered to date The fact that he works as a practitioner, outside academia, and brings a fresh set of insights to the field, adds significantly to the value of this report LIM offers an alternative to the emerging orthodoxy of large-scale electrification of heat and road transport as a way to achieve or beat the UK's 2050 CO2 emissions target This is based on more vigorous and systematic pursuit of energy efficiency throughout the economy; on technologies such as large-scale solar heat, piped to urban buildings; a road and air transport system synthesising liquid fuels in part from renewable electricity, supplementing the biofuel resource; a small electricity supply system, supplied largely by despatchable sources, assisting with network security; and the more vigorous pursuit of carbon dioxide (CO 2) sequestration options, particularly in the biosphere LIM contends that an electric future is more costly and could be slower to deliver significant CO2 reductions than the alternatives Vigorous pursuit of energy efficiency, plus biosequestration, plus more focus on UK energy uses and the characteristics of energy systems, sets the stage for significantly cheaper and more secure energy supply options Less-electric futures appear to have the capacity to deliver CO reductions both more cheaply and more quickly than more-electric Cumulative emissions to 2050 are at least as important as emissions in the year 2050 LIM highlights key areas for technology, product and supply chain development They include piped heat, which is a mature technology in several of Britain's continental neighbours, and heats over 60% of Danish buildings, but remains uncommon in the UK They include high-performance insulation systems that could significantly reduce losses in heat storage and distribution systems at all scales, along with renewable fuel production Heat networks play a systematic role in the scenario, opening up access to large-scale solar, geothermal and waste heat resources at lower costs than new electricity sources and reducing the risk that the UK will be unable to keep the lights on LIM contains a critique of the dysfunctionality of UK energy markets The authors note that water is supplied by vertically-integrated and regulated local monopolies, which have access to capital at near-public sector interest rates, especially if they are debtfunded They pose the question of why such arrangements cannot be used again in the energy sector, paralleling as it happens the situation with some private US utilities and with utilities in Denmark LIM does not offer the prospect of an easy path to energy independence and decarbonisation It makes it very clear that all options pose acute difficulties But it warns policy-makers not to reject technologies just because they appear difficult without making sober comparisons with the reality of the other technologies under consideration Prof Robert Lowe (pictured), Deputy Director Prof Tadj Oreszczyn, Director Energy Institute, UCL Executive Summary Overview In Britain, there is a broad political consensus that the threat of climate change is so great that a major transformation of our energy intensive, fossil-fuel-dependent economy is required A new future must be planned for and built in which greenhouse gas emissions are radically reduced The official target is for an 80% reduction by 2050 At the same time, energy security must be maintained, a goal that appears ever more challenging as international oil supplies peak, indigenous fossil fuel production declines, power stations close and energy prices rise This political consensus is, however, fragile The current economic crisis has raised fears that commitment to long-term change may be sacrificed in order to protect the perceived short-term competitiveness of the economy It is therefore critical that the national vision of a low carbon future is sustained and strengthened Without a properly planned and cost-effective strategy for delivering both decarbonisation and energy security, the economy will become ever more vulnerable to energy shocks that could have devastating consequences This report does not challenge the scientific or political consensus that we need to act Members of the AECB have long been committed to a vision of a genuinely low carbon future for Britain The report does, however, challenge the prevailing view in government about what this low-carbon future will look like and what we have to to get there Given the scale of the change that we are collectively seeking to engineer, it is not surprising that real questions remain about what approach, or combination of approaches, we ought to pursue to deliver this change The cost-effectiveness and real-world practicality of different options remain a matter of genuine debate This report is a contribution to this debate It describes a roadmap to a future of near-zero greenhouse gas emissions which integrates radical energy efficiency with a balanced approach to the use of renewable energy, paying particular attention to the need for energy storage as we move beyond the age of fossil fuels The title LESS IS MORE captures a view that the UK’s energy security and economic well-being after oil depend on much more extensive investment in energy efficiency, in all its forms It is the only future bulk energy option which appears to compete with fossil fuels The Goal Vision: 100% Renewable Energy Supply in 2040 for the EU-27 Source: International Network for Sustainable Energy, Gl Kirkevej 82, DK-8530 Hjortshøj, Denmark www.inforse.org The scientific evidence is clear We must dramatically reduce greenhouse gas emissions if we are to avoid the worst effects of a warming world Politically and economically, we must also prepare for a world in which fossil fuel supplies are likely to decline In the absence of decisive action to address energy insecurity, this will inevitably lead to higher prices and rising fuel poverty Although the government’s target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 is one of the most ambitious in the world, it does not go far enough This report proposes that: • A target should be set for a 100% reduction in net emissions by 2050 Ideally, we should be removing more greenhouse gases from the atmosphere than we put in before 2050 • Targets should be set for cumulative emissions to 2030 and to 2050 These are at least as important as emissions in the year 2050 • These reductions should be achieved within UK borders, except for reasonable trade with other developed countries; e.g., in bio-energy They should not depend on achieving savings in developing countries The roots of climate change lie in the industrial revolution that began in Britain in the 18th century We therefore have a particular responsibility to demonstrate ambition in defining and pursuing an affordable way to mitigate global climate change 10