NCAP VN CON 01 FinalReport final MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT Institute of Meteorological, Hydrological and Environment MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE NETHERLANDS The Netherlands[.]
MINISTRY OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND ENVIRONMENT Institute of Meteorological, Hydrological and Environment MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS OF THE NETHERLANDS The Netherlands Climate Assistance Program PROJECT Climate Change Impacts in Huong River Basin and Adaptation in its Coastal District Phu Vang, Thua Thien Hue province FINAL REPORT Ha Noi, April 2008 CONTENT ABBREVIATIONS LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES LIST OF REPORTS OF SPECIAL SUBJECTS 11 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 15 INTRODUCTION 16 CHAPTER 1: NATURAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE AND THE HUONG RIVER CATCHMENT 22 1.1 Natural characteristics 22 1.2 Some socio-economic conditions 38 CHAPTER 2: NATURAL DISASTERS AND THEIR IMPACTS IN THUA THIEN HUE44 2.1 Typhoon, whirlwind, sea level rise and their impacts 44 2.2 Drought, salinity intrusion and their effects 45 2.3 Flood and its impacts 46 2.4 Flash flood and its impacts 50 2.5 Landslide, erosion of river bank, seashore and impacts 50 CHAPTER 3: OVERVIEW ON CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE WORLD, IN VIET NAM AND THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE .55 3.1 Climate change on the world 55 3.2 Climate change in Viet Nam 59 CHAPTER 4: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS IN THUA THIEN HUE 76 4.1 Introduction 76 4.2 Study on impacts of climate change on Water Resources in Thua Thien Hue 77 4.3 Climate change impacts on biodiversity 90 4.4 Climate change impacts on coastal zone 91 4.5 Climate change impacts on Sectors 92 4.6 Climate change impacts on Phu Vang District 96 4.7 Vulnerability of Thuan An Town 99 4.8 Climate change impacts on Chan May Lang Co area 102 4.9 Conclusion 103 CHAPTER 105 ADAPTATION MEASURES TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THUA THIEN HUE PROVINCE 105 5.1 Introduction 105 5.2 Climate change adaptation options in Huong river and Thua Thien Hue province 106 5.3 Solutions of climate change adaptation option in Phu Vang District 115 5.4 Solutions for climate change adaptation option for Thuan An Town 117 5.5 Solutions of climate change adaptation in Chan May–Lang Co area 119 5.6 Integration climate change consideration into ICZM 120 5.7 Implementing Adaptation 122 CHAPTER 131 LESSONS LEARNED AND RECOMMENDATIONS .131 6.1 Cost-effective use of local and existing resources and decentralization 131 6.2 Cost-effective collaboration 131 6.3 Use both top-down and bottom-up styles in participatory approach 132 6.4 Need for translation of the scientific studies results to the language of the end-users 132 6.5 Wise use of indigenous knowledge and expert opinion 133 6.6 Think globally, act locally 133 6.7 Recommendations 133 REFERENCES 137 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank CC Climate Change C Carbon cm Centimeter CO2 Carbon dioxide ðDSH biodiversity EIA ERU Environment impact assessment Emission Reduction Unit EU European Union ETC ? EVN Vietnam Electricity Corporation GDP Gross Domestic Product GEF Global Environment Facility GHG Greenhouse Gas IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management HMS Hydro-meteorology Service MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (Vietnam) MOI Ministry of Industry MONRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment mm Millimeter Cubic meter m Square meter m/s Meter/second Mo Module of annual runoff NCAP Netherlands Climate Assistance Program TFPSR Typhoon and Flood Prevention, Search and Rescue ppb Portion per billion ppm Portion per million ICZM Integrated Coastal Zone Management Q Water discharge TTH Thua Thien Hue PPC Provincial People’s Committee IMHEN Institute of Meteorological, Hydrological and Environmental m W Total annual runoff TCES Tropical Cyclone in the East Sea UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Y Depth of flow LIST OF TABLES 1.1 Distribution of land in Huong River catchment (ha) 1.2 Annual and monthly rainfall (mm) 1.3 Some maximum rainfall characteristics (mm) 1.4 Maximum time of no rainfall (day)criteria 1.5 Number of typhoons landing on Binh Tri Thien during 1952-2006 1.6 Characteristics of annual runoff of some main rivers in Thua Thien Hue 1.7 Distribution of runoff according to season of some stations (average of many years) 1.8 Monthly discharge in low flow season 1.9 Area (km2), population (persons) and population density (persons/km2) 1.10 Structure of gross product in some recent years 1.11 Some main socio-economic indices in recent years 2.1 Drought index in Thua Thien Hue 2.2 Monthly drought frequency (%) 2.3 Intensity of Rainfall at Hue Station 2.4 The biggest flood runoff characteristics in some basins 2.5 Average number of flood on the Huong and Bo Rivers in 1996–2005 2.6 Disaster and its impacts in Thua Thien Hue (cont.) 2.7 Disaster and disaster’s Impacts in Chan May – Lang Co SEZ 3.3 Amount of C emission (billion tons) and CO2 concentration in the atmosphere (ppb) in different scenarios Spans of temperature rise in accordance with the rise of CO2 content projection for 2100 Characteristics of temperature changes (0C) at A Luoi station Time scale: 19742004 3.4 Characteristics of rainfall changes (mm) at A Luoi station time scale: 1974-2004 3.5 Climate change simulations in Viet Nam 3.6 Increase in annual and seasonal temperature (oC) in TT Hue by decades of 20102100, comparing with 1990, respectively to High emission scenarios (A1FI and A2) 3.1 3.2 3.7 Change in annual and seasonal rainfall (%) in TT Hue by decades of 2010-2100, comparing with 1990, respectively to High emission scenarios (A1FI and A2) Change in annual and seasonal temperature (oC) in TT Hue by decades of 20103.8 2100, comparing with 1990, respectively to Medium emission scenarios (A1B and B2) Change in annual and seasonal rainfall (%) in TT Hue by decades of 2010-2100, 3.9 comparing with 1990, respectively to Medium emission scenarios (A1B and B2) Change in annual and seasonal temperature (oC) in TT Hue by decades of 20103.10 2100, comparing with 1990, respectively to Low emission scenarios (A1T and B1) Change in annual and seasonal rainfall (%) in TT Hue by decades of 2010-2100, 3.11 comparing with 1990, respectively to Low emission scenarios (A1T and B1) 3.12 Sea level rise in decades of century 21 in Hon Dau, Vung Tau and Thua Thien Hue (cm) 3.13 Monthly potential evaporation (ETo) of sub-basins in 1990 (unit mm) 3.14 Monthly potential evaporation (ETo) of sub-basins in 2100 (unit mm) 4.1 List of sub-basins and rainfall gauges for rainfall – runoff routing by NAM model 4.2 Calibration and verification results 4.3 Changes in total amount of annual runoff at different sub-basins in the Perfume basin under the scenarios B2 4.4 Change in yearly runoff in Thua Thien Hue compared with 1990 (%) 4.5 Change in maximum water level at Kim Long station with different scenarios 4.6 Flooded area in Thua Thien Hue following scenario A1F1 4.7 4.8 4.9 Change in salt concentration at Pho Nam and Phu Cam cross-sections with scenario A1F1 Change in salt concentration at Pho Nam and Phu Cam cross-sections with scenario B2 Change in distance (m) of salinity intrusion of Huong River with the concentration of 1%o and 4%o (m) 4.10 Area and proportion of flood in Phu Vang District according to scenario A1F1 4.11 Some natural disasters in recent years in Thuan An Town LIST OF BOXES 1.1 Biodiversity in Thua Thien Hue 4.1 Results of investigations and researches on CC of Center for Social Sciences and Humanity 5.1 Summary results of investigations, researches and integration of CC elements LIST OF FIGURES 1.1 Thua Thien Hue province location and geography 1.2 Huong River 1.3 Huong River plain- rice paddy 1.4 Monthly rainfall at Lang Co and Loc Tri station (mm) 1.5 Flood water level on Huong and Bo River 2.1 Flood in Thua Thien Hue in 2007 3.1 3.2 3.3 Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of annual rainfall at A Luoi station Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August-December rainfall at A Luoi station Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of June-July rainfall at A Luoi station 3.4 Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 years) (3) and linear trend (4) of annual average temperature at A Luoi station 3.5 Typhoon impact to Thua Thien Hue 3.6 Process of climate change study 3.7 Monthly Rainfall and Temperature downscaled for Huong river basin – scenario B 3.8 Example of downscaling from regional to provincial projection for Thua Thien Hue for Dec-Feb rainfall in 2100 in comparison with 1990, high emission scenario A2 3.9 Change in evaporation in different years at Ta Trach station 4.1 Observed (blue line) and simulated (black line) runoff at Binh Dien station for calibration and verification periods 4.2 Observed (blue line) and simulated (black line) runoff at Co Bi station for calibration and verification periods 4.3 The example of change in stream flow at different sub-basins in the Huong river basin under the scenario B2 4.4 The average change in yearly runoff under scenario B2 4.5 The average change in yearly runoff under scenario A1F1 4.6 Changes in the maximum water level at Kim Long station with different scenarios 4.7 Water level hydrograph at Kim Long station with different years respect to scenario B2 4.8 Change in inundated extent of Thua Thien Hue province in years corresponding with different scenarios 4.9 Change in inundated extent of Phu Vang district in years corresponding with different scenarios 4.10 Inundation map corresponding with the year 2100 4.11 Thuan An commune map 4.12 Map on vulnerability in Dien Truong village, Thuan An town, Phu Vang district, Thua Thien Hue province 4.13 Vulnerability Map by flood of Chan May Lang Co Economic Zone 10