Tài liệu ASEAN Business Outlook Survey 2012-13 doc

CONTENTS We deliver world-class advice for owners and occupiers of office, industrial, hospitality, retail and residential real estate 02 04 06 10 11 11 14 15 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ASEAN INTEGRATION AND FTAS BUSINESS EXPANSION IN ASEAN STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES WORKFORCE EXPANSION EXPATRIATE SATISFACTION CAMBODIA REPORT HIGHLIGHTS INDONESIA REPORT HIGHLIGHTS 16 17 18 19 20 21 21 23 MALAYSIA REPORT HIGHLIGHTS PHILIPPINES REPORT HIGHLIGHTS SINGAPORE REPORT HIGHLIGHTS THAILAND REPORT HIGHLIGHTS VIETNAM REPORT HIGHLIGHTS SURVEY METHODOLOGY PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS INTRODUCTION The American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore (AmCham Singapore) and the U.S Chamber of Commerce, in cooperation with other AmChams in the ASEAN region, conducted a study among AmCham members of American businesses in seven Southeast Asian countries: Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam This study, now in its 11th year, builds on previous studies conducted by AmCham Singapore and the U.S Chamber of Commerce The purpose of the study was to understand members’ outlook on business growth and perceptions about a series of local factors in the ASEAN region The members surveyed were senior executives, working with for a companyies held by each U.S company were asked to complete the survey This regional report presents collective feedback received from senior members of: The American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore, The U.S Chamber of Commerce, The American Cambodian Business Council, The American Malaysian Chamber of Commerce, The American Chamber of Commerce of The Philippines, The American Chamber of Commerce in Indonesia, The American Chamber of Commerce in Thailand, and The American Chamber of Commerce in Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi) EXECUTIVE SUMMARY business in ASEAN Expansion is expected to continue region-wide The most popular location for expansion is Vietnam, followed by Thailand Companies view ASEAN economic integration as very important, yet are sceptical that Church Street #09-03 Samsung Hub Singapore 049483 Telephone: (+65) 6535 3232 www.cushmanwakefield.com Fewer than half of the respondents say they can utilize the provisions of ASEAN’s free trade agreements with major trading partners, including China, India, Japan, Australia & New Zealand, and South Korea Large majorities indicated that those agreements are important to their future investment plans in the region housing costs emerged as a new concern this year, most prominent in Singapore 01 Business executives report strong increases in the level of investment by their company investment in the ASEAN region has increased in the past two years One quarter of the ECONOMIC OUTLOOK INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY IN ASEAN ASEAN’s economic outlook continues to be positive after the volatility of the past few years Level of Trade/Investment in ASEAN Past Years the investment opportunities for their company in the ASEAN region Respondents in both the ASEAN Investment Opportunity Outlook Increase Very positive Somewhat positive Neutral Negative Stay at about the same level Decrease Level of Trade/Investment in ASEAN Next Years Respondents in Cambodia and Indonesia have the most optimistic outlooks of all countries Increase Stay at about the same level Decrease ASEAN Investment Opportunity Outlook (By Country) PROFIT OUTLOOK 55% 47% 56% 49% 47% 58% 68% Compared to 2011, you expect your profits in ASEAN to increase, decrease, or remain the same in 2012 and 2013? 81% 37% 47% 37% 38% 41% 38% 32% 6% 1% Regional Total 5% 2% Singapore 7% 0% Malaysia Very Negative 9% 0% Vietnam Negative 19% 13% 3% 0% Philippines Neutral 2% Thailand Positive 0% Indonesia 0% Cambodia Very Positive Regional 02 Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia 03 FINANCING AND COSTS OF BORROWING ASEAN REGIONAL AGREEMENTS assessed to be important to their company’s investment plans in the region Importance experiences with costs of borrowing remained similar to those of the past two years, with much variance across the region Comprehensive Investment Agreement Percentage of respondents facing significant financing constraints Importance of ASEAN Regional Agreements Regional Total Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia Percentage of respondents facing higher costs of borrowing Important Regional Total Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia Neutral / Not Important / Not Sure ASEAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENTS Fewer than half of business executives surveyed say their company can utilize the provisions so under the Korea agreement ASEAN INTEGRATION AND FTAs The data below shows the responses for each agreement IMPORTANCE OF ASEAN INTEGRATION this integration is important to helping their companies business in the region Of all the Can your company utilize the provisions of the agreement to export goods or services from ASEAN to the specified country? Is ASEAN integration important to helping your company business in the region? Australia & New Zealand China India Not Sure Regional Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Yes 04 Philippines Thailand Indonesia No Japan Korea Yes Cambodia No 05 However, the majority of respondents consider the ASEAN Free Trade Agreements to be either important or extremely important to their investment plans in the region DIVERSIFYING OPERATIONS FROM CHINA TO ASEAN planning to diversify some investments or business from China into ASEAN over the next two Importance of ASEAN FTAs Does your company plan to diversify some investments or business from China into ASEAN Over the Next Two Years? Australia and New Zealand China Not at all Important Not Important India Neutral Japan Important Regional Korea Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia Extremely Important BUSINESS DIRECTION IN MYANMAR BUSINESS EXPANSION IN ASEAN the respondents are in opposition to suspending sanctions Respondents based in Cambodia LOCATION OF BUSINESS EXPANSION IN ASEAN Please indicate how you feel about the United States government suspending sanctions on Myanmar their top location for expansion was Brunei Location of Expansion in ASEAN Regional Vietnam Thailand Singapore Philippines Indonesia Myanmar Cambodia Malaysia Singapore Malaysia Strongly Oppose 06 Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia Laos Oppose Neutral Support Strongly Support 07 exporting Vietnam and Thailand had the largest numbers of respondents considering Which one of the following best describes your export activity with Myanmar? Regional Not Sure Singapore Malaysia Do not export and no plans to export Vietnam Philippines Considering Exporting Thailand Planning to Export Indonesia Cambodia Currently Exporting future In Cambodia, it the country with the highest interest Investment activity with Myanmar Regional Not Sure 08 Singapore Malaysia Do not invest and currently no plans to invest Vietnam Philippines Considering investing Thailand Planning to invest Indonesia Cambodia Currently investing 09 STRENGTHS AND CHALLENGES WORKFORCE EXPANSION LOCAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT Excluding respondents from Singapore, corruption and laws and regulations continue to be OVERALL WORKFORCE BY COUNTRY corruption was the highest source of dissatisfaction for all countries except Singapore and Malaysia Sentiment towards the U.S remains highly positive across the ASEAN region and is a major Do you expect your total number of employees in the response location to increase, decrease, or remain about the same in 2012? the exception of Malaysia, in which responses were mixed Factors Regional Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Cambodia Infrastructure Availability of raw materials Regional Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia Availability of low cost labor Decrease Same Increase Availability of trained manpower EXPATRIATE SATISFACTION Housing cost EXPAT ASSIGNMENT SATISFACTION Laws and regulations from employees based in other locations to work in their response location This is an Corruption (or lack of) Local protectionism (or lack of) Tax Structure Does your company regularly receive requests from employees based in other locations to work in your response location? Personal security Stable government and political system New business incentives by government Ease of moving products through customs Regional Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia Free movement of goods within the region Sentiment towards the U.S Strength 10 Concern 11 EXPATRIATE SATISFACTION EXPAT SATISFACTION IN RESPONSE LOCATION Are your expatriate employees generally satisfied with their assignments in your response location? Regional Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia REQUESTS FOR EXTENSION OF ASSIGNMENTS Results show that, in most countries, increasing numbers of expatriate employees attempt country in which fewer respondents stated that expatriate employees attempt to extend their time there Do your expatriate employees attempt to extend their time in your response location? Regional 12 Singapore Malaysia Vietnam Philippines Thailand Indonesia Cambodia 13 CAMBODIA INDONESIA BUSINESS OUTLOOK ASEAN Economic Outlook: All respondents maintain a positive or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies BUSINESS OUTLOOK ASEAN Economic Outlook: All respondents in Indonesia indicated a positive or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies Outlook for Investment Opportunities in ASEAN Current Business Climate: Percentage of respondents facing Outlook for Investment Opportunities in ASEAN Current Business Climate: Profit Outlook 2012 Profit Outlook 2012 Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business: Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business: ASEAN markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years ASEAN markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years importance to increase in the next two years importance to continue to increase in the next two years Profit Outlook 2013 Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN: Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN: Profit Outlook 2013 companies in ASEAN companies’ business in ASEAN Workforce Expansion: Workforce Expansion: Major Strengths Major Concerns Major Strengths Stable government and Target Countries for Business Expansion Sentiment towards the Availability of low cost Target Countries for Business Expansion Availability of trained Sentiment towards U.S Availability of low cost Major Concerns Laws and Regulations Local protectionism Laws and Regulations Ease of moving products Free movement of goods Myanmar 14 Cambodia Vietnam Vietnam Indonesia Myanmar Singapore Laos 15 MALAYSIA PHILIPPINES BUSINESS OUTLOOK ASEAN Economic Outlook: BUSINESS OUTLOOK ASEAN Economic Outlook: or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies Outlook for Investment Opportunities in ASEAN Current Business Climate: or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies Outlook for Investment Opportunities in ASEAN Current Business Climate: There has been a decrease in those facing Profit Outlook 2012 Profit Outlook 2012 Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business: Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business: markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years ASEAN markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years expect ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years expect ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years Profit Outlook 2013 Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN: expand in ASEAN, and none expect to contract Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN: Profit Outlook 2013 expand in ASEAN Workforce Expansion: Workforce Expansion: Major Strengths Major Concerns Major Strengths Target Countries for Business Expansion Target Countries for Business Expansion Major Concerns Sentiment towards the Sentiment towards U.S Availability of trained Availability of low cost Free movement of goods Laws and Regulations Ease of moving products Ease of moving your products through Vietnam 16 Thailand Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Stable government and Philippines Vietnam Singapore Thailand Myanmar Indonesia 17 SINGAPORE THAILAND BUSINESS OUTLOOK ASEAN Economic Outlook: BUSINESS OUTLOOK ASEAN Economic Outlook: Outlook for Investment Opportunities in ASEAN or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies Current Business Climate: Outlook for Investment Opportunities in ASEAN Current Business Climate: The percentage of those facing higher higher costs of borrowing Profit Outlook 2012 Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business: Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business: markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years importance to increase in the next two years Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN: Profit Outlook 2012 Profit Outlook 2013 ASEAN importance to increase in the next two years Profit Outlook 2013 Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN: to expand in ASEAN to expand in ASEAN Workforce Expansion: Major Strengths Major Concerns Workforce Expansion: Major Strengths Target Countries for Business Expansion Stable Government & Political Major Concerns Target Countries for Business Expansion Availability of Low Cost Stable government and Sentiment towards the Laws and regulations Ease of Moving Products through New Business Incentives Offered Vietnam Singapore Thailand Indonesia Myanmar Philippines Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Myanmar Indonesia Singapore Free Movement of Goods within the 18 19 VIETNAM SURVEY METHODOLOGY BUSINESS OUTLOOK ASEAN Economic Outlook: or very positive outlook for the ASEAN region as an investment opportunity for their companies Outlook for Investment Opportunities in ASEAN Sample Size Current Business Climate: face higher costs of borrowing Importance of ASEAN Markets in Global Business: Profit Outlook 2012 Web-based, self-administered survey No enforcement on participation Data Collection Period markets have increased in importance to their companies in the past two years selecting multiple answers, respondents selecting “not sure,” or incomplete entries in the data set importance to increase in the next two years Business Direction and Movement in ASEAN: Data Collection Method A list of AmCham members from U.S companies with e-mail contacts was provided by each AmCham: 66 130 224 238 1,103 238 367 Overall: List of 2,366 Note 1: to complete the survey Note 2: Profit Outlook 2013 expand in ASEAN PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS Workforce Expansion: Major Strengths Major Concerns Sentiment towards the Laws and Regulations Target Countries for Business Expansion employees in the region 75% Refer to the next page for more information Stable government and Availability of low cost 5% 5% Vietnam Myanmar Thailand 20 3% Laos 3% 3% 2% 2% respondents work in the manufacturing sector Ease of moving products 2% Malaysia Singapore Brunei Cambodia Philippines 21 PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS Country Region Thailand Singapore Malaysia ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Vietnam Philippines Indonesia Cambodia This report was compiled and published by The American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore and the U.S Chamber of Commerce Editor-In-Chief: Liyana Othman, Head of Communications & Corporate Relations, AmCham Singapore COUNTRY OF RESPONSIBILITY Only ONE country 41% 40% 12% 37% 73% 63% 58% 81% Multiple countries 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% 41% PRIMARY ACTIVITIES Service 53% 45% 68% 28% 14% 69% 39% 56% Manufacturing 29% 34% 21% 55% 46% 12% 30% 19% Other 19% 18% 17% 17% 16% 23% 26% 25% SIZE OF WORKFORCE (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES) Below 50 26% 36% 32% 17% 20% 25% 16% 19% 50 to < 500 45% 36% 40% 47% 54% 45% 58% 56% 500 to