Handbook of Economic Forecasting part 93 pdf

... as we will see in the examples of Section 7. The positive aspect of this result is that estimation of the current economic condition is rather robust to the choice of method. Another implication ... estimator of the probability of being in a given status in period t. Notice also that the first and last rows of (14) provide, respectively, the probability of the state and the d...

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... Forecasting inflation”. Journal of Monetary Economics 44, 293 335. Stock, J.H., Watson, M.W. (2002). “Macroeconomic forecasting using diffusion indexes”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 20, ... (1 993) . “A utility based comparison of some models of exchange rate volatility”. Journal of International Economics 35, 23–46. West, K.D., McCracken, M.W. (1998). “Regressio...

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... accuracy of extrapolation (time series) methods: Results of a forecasting competition”. Journal of Forecasting 1, 111–153. Marcellino, M. (2004). “Forecast pooling for short time series of macroeconomic ... Timmermann, A. (2004).“Properties of optimalforecasts under asymmetric loss and nonlinearity”. Mimeo, London School of Economics and Departmentof Economics, University of...

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... the uncertainty of forecasts and in Section 4.3 we discuss the use of qualitative surveys to produce forecasts of quantitative macro -economic aggregates. Methods of testing models of expectation ... surveys collate the forecasts of professional forecasters, and it is likely that at least some of these are generated by formal forecasting models and forecasting processes of...

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... Boston College, Department of Economics Working Paper 583. Giacomini, R., Komunjer, I. (2005). “Evaluation and combination of conditional quantile forecasts”. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics ... 808–817. Christoffersen, P.F., Diebold, F.X. (2000). “How relevant is volatility forecasting for financial risk manage- ment?” Review of Economics and Statistics 82, 12–22. Chri...

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... Throsby HANDBOOK OF LAW AND ECONOMICS Editors A. Mitchell Polinsky and Steven Shavell HANDBOOK OF THE ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION Editors Eric Hanushek and Finis Welch HANDBOOK OF ECONOMICS OF TECHNOLOGICAL ... TITLES HANDBOOK OF EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS RESULTS Editors Charles Plott and Vernon L. Smith HANDBOOK ON THE ECONOMICS OF ART AND CULTURE Editors Victor Ginsburgh and...

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... 3 2 1 HANDBOOK OF ECONOMIC FORECASTING VOLUME 1 INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES The aim of the Handbooks in Economics series is to produce Handbooks for various branches of economics, each of which ... FRANCISCO • SINGAPORE • SYDNEY • TOKYO CONTENTS OF THE HANDBOOK VOLUME 1 Introduction to the Series Contents of the Handbook PART 1: FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Chapter 1 Bayes...

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... 102 3. A small number of nonnested models, Part I 104 4. A small number of nonnested models, Part II 106 5. A small number of nonnested models, Part III 111 6. A small number of models, nested: ... v Contents of the Handbook vii PART 1: FORECASTING METHODOLOGY Chapter 1 Bayesian Forecasting JOHN GEWEKE AND CHARLES WHITEMAN 3 Abstract 4 Keywords 4 1. Introduction 6 2. B...

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... nonparametric methods 927 8.3. Binary models 930 8.4. Pooling 933 9. Evaluation of leading indicators 934 9.1. Methodology 934 This page intentionally left blank PART 1 FORECASTING METHODOLOGY ... FORECASTING JOHN GEWEKE and CHARLES WHITEMAN Department of Economics, University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA 52242-1000 Contents Abstract 4 Keywords 4 1. Introduction 6 2. Bayesian i...

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... enlarged the scope of models that can be brought to bear on forecasting problems using either Bayesian or non-Bayesian methods, and significantly increased the quality of economic forecasting. This ... history of how they came about and improved economic decision-making. The chapter begins in Section 2 with an exposition of Bayesian inference, empha- sizing applications of the...

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