Risk Analysis ppt

... degrees of risk NPV B A Project B Project A Probability Using Risk Analysis in Decision Making • Choice depends on decision-maker’s attitude towards risk; • ... B has higher expected NPV, but is riskier than A; • final choice depends on how much the decision-maker is risk averse or is a risk taker. Figure 9.5: A Risk Averse Individual...

Ngày tải lên: 16/03/2014, 01:20

... credit risk. Brazil France India Japan Turkey Risk and resilience profiles -2 -1 0 1 2 Resource balance Trade related risk Degradation related risk Financial resilience Less exposure to risk ... evaluating country risk. BOX III: Consistency and Coverage for Financial Risk Methodologies 5. The Ecological Footprint and Natural Resource Risks UNEP FI A New Angle on Sovereign C...

Ngày tải lên: 16/02/2014, 03:20

... cost risk analysis and the use of these techniques to assess risk in other activities, there is not a single, Setting a Cost Risk Analysis Policy 89 standard method or approach for doing cost risk ... 39 Observations 40 CHAPTER FOUR Risk Analysis in Cost Estimation 41 Review of Cost Risk Methodologies 42 Deterministic Cost Risk Methodologies 44 Probabilistic Cost Risk...

Ngày tải lên: 17/02/2014, 22:20

... analysis should at least anticipate the changing nature of the risk profile over the project’s life by specifying the assumptions regarding the process of change in the risk profile. 25 (2) Risk- adjusted ... Thus the constant risk- adjusted discount rate does not imply a constant deduction for risk. Rather, it implies a larger deduction for risk in the later years because the cum...

Ngày tải lên: 07/03/2014, 00:20

... cost risk analysis field can draw. 6 ere were exceptions (see, e.g., Kadane, 1996). Elicitation in Decision Analysis 5 7 CHAPTER THREE Elicitation in Cost Risk Analysis Elicitation in cost risk ... cost risk analysis that might justify modifications to elicitation practices in other fields. For example, cost risk analysts typically have to elicit many distributions in the...

Ngày tải lên: 15/03/2014, 20:20

... - 1. INTRODUCTION RISK, RISK ANALYSIS, AND RISK MANAGEMENT A strong case has been made that one of the major intellectual triumphs of the modern world is the transformation of risk, the possibility ... components. Performance Risk Unlike schedule and cost risk analysis, where the methodologies are largely generic across all project types, methods of performance risk analysis t...

Ngày tải lên: 16/03/2014, 03:20

... TÍCH NGUY CƠ AN TOÀN THỰC PHẨM FOOD SAFETY RISK ANALYSIS PGS,TS LÊ HOÀNG NINH VIỆN VS-YT CÔNG CỘNG 2. PHÂN TÍCH NGUY CƠ  Phân tích nguy cơ ( risk analysis) được dùng để ước lượng nguy cơ đối ... meeting on pesticide residues ( JMPR), joint expert meeting on microbiology risk assessment ( JEMRA), member goverments …: risk assessment 2. PHÂN TÍCH NGUY CƠ (t.t)  Những đặc tính...

Ngày tải lên: 18/01/2013, 15:03

... team. Managing risk at a program level involves a review of project risks and program risks by an Enterprise Program Management Office (EPMO). The EPMO should analyze project risk across the ... of risks inherent in the situation (2) Assessing the likelihood of the risks manifesting themselves (3) Taking preventive and corrective action to reduce the firm’s level of exposure to the r...

Ngày tải lên: 10/12/2013, 01:15

... extracted these records followed by why are they being brought to your attention. 40 40 Step by Step Analysis Review • Investigate events of interest step by step • Attempt to come up with multiple ... fashion. In other words, each incident has to be done step by step. You may fumble some in your analysis, but that may ultimately help you discover what is going on. When you see some susp...

Ngày tải lên: 10/12/2013, 16:15

... interaction, nonlinear phenomena), mechanical systems (vibration analysis, knock detection), economic time series, biomedical signal analysis (ultrasonic imaging, detection of wave coupling) image ... S., NonlinearMethods of Spectral Analysis, 2nd ed., Berlin, Germany, Springer-Verlag, 1983. [8] Hinich, M.J., Testing for gaussianity and linearity of a stationary time series, J. Time Seri...

Ngày tải lên: 16/12/2013, 04:15