3. Human technology, such as irrigation and synthetic fertil- izers, makes us less dependent on ecosystem services.
4. There is a time lag between ecosystem decline and human well-being; the worst is yet to come.
We will take a brief look at four important global trends and keep in mind these hypotheses (the scientific method and hy- potheses are explained later in the chapter) as we engage in our initial examination of the state of our planet: (1) human population and well-being, (2) the status of vital ecosystem services, (3) global climate change, and (4) the loss of biodi- versity. Each of these topics is explored in greater depth in later chapters.
Population Growth and Human Well-Being
The world’s human population, more than 7.3 billion in 2014, has grown by 2 billion in just the past 25 years. It is continu- ing to grow, at the rate of about 80 million persons per year.
Even though the growth rate (now 1.1%/year) is gradually slowing, the world population in 2050 is likely to exceed 9.3 billion, according to the most recent projections from
1.1 A Paradox: What Is the Real State of the Planet?
Paradox (n.): A statement exhibiting contradictory or inexpli- cable aspects or qualities.3 A group of scientists from McGill University recently published a paper in which they identified a so-called environmentalist’s paradox.4 The paradox, they said, is this: over the past 40 years, human well-being has been steadily improving, while natural ecosystems (from which we derive many goods and services) have been declining.
To explain this paradox, the authors advanced four hypotheses:
1. The measurements of human well-being are flawed; it is actually declining.
2. Food production, a crucial ecosystem service that has been enhanced, outweighs the effects of declines in other ecosystem services.
not only with pesticides, but also with air and water pollution and more protection for wild areas. Finally, in 1969, Congress passed a bill known as the Environmental Policy act, the first legislation to recognize the interconnectedness of ecological systems and human enterprises. Shortly after that, a commission appointed by President Richard Nixon to study environmental policy rec ommended the creation of a new agency that would be re sponsible for dealing with air, water, solid waste, the use of pesticides, and radiation standards. The new agency, called the Environmental Protection agency (EPa), was given a mandate to protect the environment, on behalf of the public, against pressures from other governmental agencies and from industry.
The year was 1970, the same year that 20 million americans celebrated the first Earth Day.
In what must be seen as a triumph of Rachel Carson’s work, DDT was banned in the United States and most other industrialized countries in the early 1970s. (The DDT story is more fully documented in Chapter 13.) Unfortunately, Rachel Carson did not live long after her worldshaking book was published; she died of breast cancer in 1964. Her legacy, however, is a lasting one: she is credited with initiating major reforms in pesticide policy as well as an environmental aware ness that eventually led to the modern environmental movement and the creation of the EPa.
Moving On. This is a story of science and the environment, but it is more than that; it is a story of a courageous woman who changed the course of history. In this chapter, we briefly explore the current condition of our planet and then introduce three themes that provide structure to the primary goal of this text: to promote a sustainable future.
of the widespread spraying of DDT. This pesticide was used to control Dutch elm disease, a fungus that invades trees and eventually kills them. The fungus is spread by elm bark beetles and DDT was used to kill the beetles. In towns that employed DDT spraying, birds began dying off, until in some areas people reported their yards were empty of birds. Thousands of dead songbirds were recovered and analyzed in laboratories for DDT content; all had toxic levels in their tissues. DDT was also employed in spraying salt marshes for mosquito control, and the result was a drastic reduction in the fisheating bald eagle and osprey.
Fallout. Rachel Carson brought two important qualities to her work: she was very careful to document every finding reported in the book, and she had a high degree of personal courage. She was sure of her scientific claims, and she was willing to take on the establishment and defend her work. In spite of the fact that her work was thoroughly documented, her book ignited a firestorm of criticism from the chemical and agricultural estab lishment. Even respected institutions such as the american medical association joined in the attack against her.
Despite this criticism, Silent Spring caught the public’s eye, and it quickly made its way to the President’s Science advisory Committee when John F. kennedy read a serialized version of it in the New Yorker. kennedy charged the commit
tee with studying the pesticide problem and recommending changes in public policy. In 1963, kennedy’s committee made recommendations that fully supported Carson’s thesis. Congress began holding hearings, public debate followed, and Carson’s voice was joined by others who called for new policies to deal
4Ciara Raudsepp-Hearne et al., “Untangling the Environmentalist’s Paradox: Why Is Human Well-Being Increasing as Ecosystem Services Degrade?” Bioscience 60 (September 2010): 576–589.
3Webster’s II New College Dictionary (Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company, 1995), s.v. “paradox.”
4 CHAPTER 1 Science and the Environment
the people living in developing countries, remain undernour- ished. Some 6.9 million children per year do not live to see their fifth birthday.
Addressing these tragic outcomes of severe poverty has been a major concern of the UNDP, and in 2000, all UN member countries adopted a set of goals—the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)—to reduce extreme poverty and its effects on human well-being by 2015 (see Table 9–2 for a list of the eight goals). Several of the MDGs were met ahead of schedule, while others were not met. The world has now moved to a post-2015 development agenda, driven by a set of seventeen Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) discussed at length later (Chapter 9). The SDGs are a set of goals for world development and poverty alleviation, described by the UN, for 2015–2030.
Ecosystem Goods and Services
Natural and managed ecosystems support human life and economies with a range of goods and services. As crucial as they are, there is evidence that these vital resources are not being managed well. Around the world, human societies are depleting groundwater supplies, degrading agricultural soils, overfishing the oceans, and cutting forests faster than they can regrow. The world economy depends heavily on many renewable resources, as we exploit these systems for goods—
water, all of our food, much of our fuel, wood for lumber and paper, leather, furs, raw materials for fabrics, oils and alcohols, and much more.
These same ecosystems also provide a flow of services that support human life and economic well-being, such as the breakdown of waste, regulation of the climate, erosion control, pest management, and maintenance of crucial nutrient cycles.
In a very real sense, these goods and services can be thought of as capital—ecosystem capital. Human well-being and eco- nomic development are absolutely dependent on the products of this capital—its income, so to speak. As a result, the stock of ecosystem capital in a nation and its income-generating ca- pacity represent a major form of the wealth of the nation (see Chapter 2). These goods and services are provided year after year, as long as the ecosystems producing them are protected.
the United Nations (UN) Population Division (Figure 1–1). The 2.2 billion persons added to the human population by 2050 will all have to be fed, clothed, housed, and, hopefully, supported by gainful employment. Virtually all of the increase will be in developing countries.
Human Development Index. Each year since 1990, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) has pub- lished a Human Development Report.5 A key part of the report is the Human Development Index (HDI), a compre- hensive assessment of human well-being in most countries of the world. With this index, well-being is measured in health, education, and basic living standards. The 2014 report high- lighted the importance of resiliency and the vulnerability of the poor, suggesting that poverty is not simply a function of the amount of money people have, but is also a function of factors such as literacy and stability.
The 2010 report included a unique four-decade compari- son in which worldwide trends in HDI were plotted over the 40 years since 1970 (Figure 1–2). Only three of the 135 coun- tries analyzed declined in HDI, while most of the countries showed marked improvement. During those 40 years, life ex- pectancy rose from 59 years to 70, school enrollment climbed from 55% to 70%, and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) doubled to more than $10,000. It is this overall prog- ress that has provided one side of the environmentalist’s para- dox. As a result of these facts, the McGill team concluded that its first hypothesis is not supported; there are too many indica- tions that human well-being has indeed improved markedly.
Is It All Good? However, the overall progress can, and does, mask serious inequalities. Economic growth has been extremely unequal, both between and within countries. And there are huge gaps in human development across the world.
For example, in developing countries, an estimated 1.1 billion people still experience extreme poverty, existing on an income of $1.25 a day. More than 800 million people, about 13% of
A.D. 2000
A.D. 1500
The Plague Industrial Revolution
A.D. 1000
Billions of people
Year 12
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
2100 2043 2024 2011 1999 1987 1975 1960 1930 1830 Figure 1–1 World population
explosion. World population started a rapid growth phase in the early 1800s and has increased sixfold in the past 200 years.
at present it is growing by 80 million people per year. Future projections are based on assumptions that birthrates will continue to decline.
(Source: Data from UN Population Division, 2012 revision, and from Population Reference Bureau 2014 report.)
5United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report 2014:
Sustaining Human Progress: Reducing Vulnerabilities and Building Resilience.
(New York: UNDP, July 24, 2014), http://hdr.undp.org/en/2014-report.
1.1 A Paradox: What Is the Real State of the Planet? 5
Patterns of Resource Consumption. As the human pop- ulation grows, each person requires food, water, shelter, clothing, and other resources. Many of the goods and services that people need are derived from ecosystems.
However, not all people use the same amount of resources.
Any discussion of population growth, development, and the preservation of ecosystem services needs to include the idea that some people consume more resources than is necessary. One way to imagine individual consumption pat- terns is to picture what it would require to have everyone consume resources at the same level. For example, if all hu- mans alive today replicated the resource consumption pat- terns of the average American, we would need more than four Earths to accommodate all of their needs. The concept of individual consumption will be covered extensively later (Chapters 2, 8, and 23).
Measuring Ecosystem Health: A Huge Undertaking. To protect ecosystem goods and services for future generations, we need to know what they are, how they are being used, and what is happening to them. To find out, scientists have carried out a number of large-scale assessments.
The most prominent, the Millennium Ecosystem Assess- ment, compiled available information on the state of ecosys- tems across the globe. During a period of four years, some 1,360 scientists from 95 countries gathered, analyzed, and synthesized information from published, peer-reviewed re- search. The project focused especially on the linkages between ecosystem services and human well-being on global, regional, and local scales. Ecosystem goods and services were grouped into provisioning services (goods such as food and fuel), regu- lating services (processes such as flood protection), and cultural services (nonmaterial benefits such as recreation) (see Table 1–1 on the following page). Supporting services (not included in the table), such as primary productivity and habitat, are necessary to the other three.
In a summary report, the most prominent finding of the scientists was the widespread degradation and overexploita- tion of ecosystem resources. More than 60% of the classes of ecosystem goods and services assessed by the team were being degraded or used unsustainably (Table 1–1). The sci- entists concluded that if this trend is not reversed, the next half century could see deadly consequences for humans as the ecosystem services that sustain life are further degraded.
Since the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, a number of other assessments have been conducted; several are listed in Table 1–2 (on the following page). Some of these assessments considered global patterns and others focused on regional ecosystems, but all found similar trends.
One set of provisioning ecosystem services has actually been enhanced over recent years: the production of crops, livestock, and aquaculture. As a result, the production of food has kept pace with population growth, improving hu- man health and increasing life expectancy. However, many ecosystem services and resources such as groundwater, soil, wild fish, and forestry products have declined, in part be- cause of the way we use land and other resources to provide food, shelter, and consumer goods for humans.
Zimbabwe DR C
ongo Zambia Nepal OmanRussia
China Indonesia Gua
temala Saudi Arabia Japan 1.0HDI
Year 0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Figure 1–2 Human Development Index, 1970–2010. This com
plex graph shows the Human Development Index (HDI) of more than 100 countries over a period of 40 years. Countries represented by lines with similar colors began the time period with similar HDI values. Highlighted countries include top and bottom performers (in terms of increasing HDI) and selected others. (This fourdecade graph accompanied a 2010 special report. Newer reports highlight these trends in other ways.)
(Source: United Nations Development Program, Human Development Report 2010. New York: UNDP, p. 27.)
UndERStAndInG tHE dAtA
1. all but three of the 135 countries have a higher level of human de
velopment today than in 1970. What explains the general upward trend for most countries?
2. Which two labeled countries appear to have improved the most?
Which of the labeled countries decreased?
3. What historical event might explain the pattern for the line repre
senting Russia?
6 CHAPTER 1 Science and the Environment
Table 1–2 Examples of previous and ongoing ecosystem and biodiversity assessments.
Title Organization Year(s)
Global Biodiversity Assessment UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) 1995
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment UNEP; World Resources Institute 2005
State of the Nation’s Ecosystems The Heinz Center 2002, 2008
National Ecosystem Assessment United Kingdom 2011
Sustaining Environmental Capital: Protecting Society and the Economy
President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology
2011
Intergovernmental Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES)
UNEP 2012
Global Environmental Outlook (GEO) UNEP 1997, 1999, 2002, 2007, 2012
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN)
2000, 2004, 2008, 2012
Biodiversity Ecosystems and Ecosystem Services, Technical Input
Part of National Climate Assessment 2014
Source: Adapted from Grimm, N., M. Staudinger, A. Staudt, S. Carter, F. S. Chapin III, P. Kareiva, M. Ruckelhaus, and B. Stein. “Climate-Change Impacts on Ecological Systems: Introduction to a US Assessment.” Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 9, no. 11 (2013): 456–464.
Paradox Resolved? The McGill team set out to explain the environmentalist’s paradox—the fact that human well- being has been improving while natural ecosystems have been declining. It rejected hypothesis 1, which stated that human well-being is actually declining. The team concluded that hypothesis 2 was confirmed: enhanced food production out- weighs the effects of declines in other ecosystem services. Two
further hypotheses remain: (3) our use of technology makes us less dependent on ecosystem services, and (4) the existence of a time lag between the loss of goods and services and the impact on human well-being, with the possibility of exceed- ing limits and bringing on ecosystem collapse. The McGill University team concluded that these last two hypotheses help explain the environmentalist’s paradox, although not as
Table 1–1 The global status of ecosystem services. Human use has degraded almost two-thirds of the identified services; 20% are mixed, meaning they are degraded in some areas and enhanced in others; and 17% have been enhanced by human use.
Ecosystem Services Degraded Mixed Enhanced
Provisioning
(goods obtained from ecosystems)
Capture fisheries Wild foods Wood fuel Genetic resources Biochemicals Fresh water
Timber Fiber
Crops Livestock Aquaculture
Regulating
(services obtained from the regulation of ecosystem processes)
Air quality regulation Climate regulation Erosion regulation Water purification Pest regulation Pollination
Natural hazard regulation
Water regulation (flood protection, aquifer recharge) Disease regulation
Carbon sequestration (trapping atmospheric carbon in trees, etc.)
Cultural
(nonmaterial benefits from ecosystems)
Spiritual and religious values Aesthetic values
Recreation and ecotourism
Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, Ecosystems and Human Well-Being: Synthesis. Washington, DC: Island Press, 2005.
1.1 A Paradox: What Is the Real State of the Planet? 7
total concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere to decrease.
The pattern of peaks and valleys reflects the seasons of the Northern Hemisphere, where most of Earth’s landmasses and plants are located.) Figure 1–4 shows changes in global tem- perature since 1880. Both of these parameters are increasing.
This is not proof that increases in CO2 caused the increase in global temperature, but the argument based on the well-known greenhouse effect is quite convincing.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by the UN in 1988 and given the responsi- bility to report its assessment of climate change at five-year intervals. The latest of these assessments, the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), was released during 2013 and 2014. The work of thousands of scientific experts, this assessment produced convincing evidence of human-induced global warming that is clearly as hypothesis 2. The team concluded that the paradox
is not fully explained by any of the hypotheses, although hypothesis 1 was rejected. It also concluded that ecosystem conditions are indeed continuing to decline, with unknown and perhaps severe impacts on human well-being in the fu- ture. The most serious concern is global climate change, the worldwide alteration of patterns of temperature, precipita- tion, and the intensity of storms.
Global Climate Change
The global economy runs on fossil fuel. Every day in 2013 we burned some 91.3 million barrels of oil, 324 billion cubic feet of natural gas, and 11.6 million tons of coal. All of this combustion generates carbon dioxide (CO2), which is released into the atmosphere at a rate of 80 million tons a day. Because of past and present burning of fossil fuels, the CO2 content of the atmosphere increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1900 to 400 ppm in 2014. For the past decade, the level of atmospheric CO2 has increased by 2 ppm per year, and given our dependency on fossil fuels, there is no end in sight.
Monitoring Carbon Dioxide and Its Effects. Carbon dioxide is a natural component of the lower atmosphere, along with nitrogen and oxygen. It is required by plants for photosynthesis and is important to the Earth-atmosphere energy system. Carbon dioxide gas absorbs infrared (heat) energy radiated from Earth’s surface, thus slowing the loss of this energy to space. The absorption of infrared energy by CO2 and other gases warms the lower atmosphere in a phe- nomenon known as the greenhouse effect. As the greenhouse gases trap heat, they keep Earth at hospitable temperatures.
Although the concentration of CO2 is a small percentage of the atmospheric gases, increases in the volume of this gas affect temperatures. Figure 1–3 graphs changes in the concen- tration of CO2 in the atmosphere from 1958 to the present.
(The yearly peaks and valleys on the graph result from seasonal changes in the uptake of CO2. In summer, plants take in more CO2 for photosynthesis than they do in winter, causing the
Atmospheric CO2 at Mauna Loa Observatory
Parts per million
1960 380 400
360
340
320
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Figure 1–3 Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations.
This record of CO2 has been measured at the mauna loa Observatory since 1958. The atmospheric content of CO2 has risen by 45% since the Industrial Revolution began around 1750.
(Source: mauna loa Observatory, Hawaii, NOaa Research laboratory, Scripps Institution of Oceanography.)
Annual Global Land and Ocean Temperature Anomalies
Anomaly (°C)
0.6
–0.4 –0.2 0
Anomaly (°F)
0 –0.2 –0.4 –0.6 –0.8 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.2
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0.4
Figure 1–4 Global temperatures since 1880. This graph shows the course of global temperatures as recorded by thousands of stations around the world.
The baseline, or zero point, is the 20th cen
tury average temperature. a temperature anomaly is the amount the global mean temperature for a particular year differs from that baseline.
(Source: National Climatic Data Center, NOaa, 2014.)