CHƢƠNG 5 : KẾT LUẬN
5.3 Hƣớng nghiên cứu tiếp theo
Dựa vào kết quả nghiên cứu và những hạn chế của luận văn, tác giả gợi ý một số nghiên cứu tiếp theo nhƣ sau:
Thứ nhất, luận văn này chỉ nghiên cứu trên các công ty phi tài chính niêm yết trên sàn HOSE trong giai đoạn 2008-2013. Do đó, các nghiên cứu sau có thể mở rộng thời gian nghiên cứu và cỡ mẫu nghiên cứu thêm các cơng ty tài chính và các cơng ty niêm yết trên sàn HNX.
Thứ hai, các biến về cấu trúc sở hữu và quản trị công ty đƣa vào mơ hình chỉ có 6 biến gồm: sở hữu nội bộ, sở hữu nhà nƣớc, sở hữu nƣớc ngồi, quy mơ HĐQT, tỷ lệ thành viên HĐQT độc lập, tính kiêm nhiệm CEO và chủ tịch HĐQT. Các nghiên cứu sau có thể khai thác thêm các biến cấu trúc sở hữu khác nhƣ: sở hữu tổ chức, sở hữu cá nhân… cũng nhƣ thêm các biến quản trị công ty khác nhƣ: tuổi tác, giới tính, nhiệm kỳ, lƣơng thƣởng, trình độ chun mơn của ban giám đốc và thành viên HĐQT…
Thứ ba, luận văn chỉ nghiên cứu các biến dƣới góc độ là biến ngoại sinh, chỉ xem xét tác động của các cấu trúc sở hữu và quản trị công ty đến các tỷ số nợ. Các nghiên cứu trong tƣơng lai có thể xem xét nghiên cứu các biến dƣới góc độ là biến nội sinh để xem xét tác động quan lại giữa cấu trúc sở hữu và quản trị công ty đến quyết định tài trợ.
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PHỤ LỤC 1: KẾT QUẢ HỒI QUY POOLED OLS 1.1 Kết quả hồi quy Pooled OLS – Biến phụ thuộc là DR
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. IO -0.130990 0.051278 -2.554498 0.0109 SO -0.065501 0.040091 -1.633795 0.1029 FO -0.268114 0.044028 -6.089696 0.0000 BSIZE -0.005424 0.005304 -1.022724 0.3069 NED 0.010453 0.031753 0.329178 0.7421 CEOD 0.013675 0.014159 0.965844 0.3345 ROA -1.026254 0.083414 -12.30310 0.0000 SIZE 0.151358 0.015013 10.08196 0.0000 TANG 0.141290 0.037493 3.768468 0.0002 RISK -0.335896 0.187835 -1.788250 0.0743 TAX -0.194509 0.052212 -3.725400 0.0002 DY 0.012089 0.085435 0.141493 0.8875 AGE -5.84E-06 0.000412 -0.014162 0.9887 C -1.350120 0.175980 -7.672027 0.0000 R-squared 0.452953 Mean dependent var 0.292168 Adjusted R-squared 0.440299 S.D. dependent var 0.205416 S.E. of regression 0.153678 Akaike info criterion -0.883907 Sum squared resid 13.27274 Schwarz criterion -0.778029 Log likelihood 268.5652 Hannan-Quinn criter. -0.842616 F-statistic 35.79490 Durbin-Watson stat 0.577511 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: SD Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 09/20/14 Time: 21:07 Sample: 2008 2013
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 100
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 576
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. IO -0.568503 0.246812 -2.303386 0.0216 SO -0.160936 0.192967 -0.834011 0.4046 FO -0.173190 0.211914 -0.817267 0.4141 BSIZE -0.070045 0.025527 -2.743983 0.0063 NED 0.363489 0.152836 2.378296 0.0177 CEOD 0.179668 0.068149 2.636385 0.0086 ROA -3.652869 0.401490 -9.098284 0.0000 SIZE 0.244401 0.072259 3.382280 0.0008 TANG -0.826193 0.180460 -4.578255 0.0000 RISK -1.639850 0.904089 -1.813815 0.0702 TAX -0.807887 0.251306 -3.214758 0.0014 DY 0.375663 0.411218 0.913537 0.3614 AGE -0.000943 0.001985 -0.475296 0.6348 C -1.364824 0.847026 -1.611313 0.1077 R-squared 0.242209 Mean dependent var 0.626693 Adjusted R-squared 0.224680 S.D. dependent var 0.840052 S.E. of regression 0.739685 Akaike info criterion 2.258820 Sum squared resid 307.4890 Schwarz criterion 2.364697 Log likelihood -636.5401 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.300111 F-statistic 13.81762 Durbin-Watson stat 0.488463 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Dependent Variable: LD Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 09/20/14 Time: 21:10 Sample: 2008 2013
Periods included: 6
Cross-sections included: 100
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 576
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. IO -0.186085 0.159835 -1.164234 0.2448 SO 0.177938 0.124965 1.423909 0.1550 FO -0.647422 0.137235 -4.717624 0.0000 BSIZE 0.037830 0.016531 2.288418 0.0225 NED -0.165354 0.098976 -1.670647 0.0953 CEOD -0.103166 0.044133 -2.337592 0.0198 ROA -1.349908 0.260004 -5.191879 0.0000 SIZE 0.549162 0.046795 11.73552 0.0000 TANG 0.853102 0.116866 7.299861 0.0000 RISK -0.350680 0.585485 -0.598956 0.5494 TAX 0.075910 0.162745 0.466438 0.6411 DY -0.403548 0.266304 -1.515367 0.1302 AGE 0.002096 0.001285 1.630568 0.1035 C -6.448999 0.548532 -11.75684 0.0000 R-squared 0.398189 Mean dependent var 0.305194 Adjusted R-squared 0.384269 S.D. dependent var 0.610458 S.E. of regression 0.479018 Akaike info criterion 1.389847 Sum squared resid 128.9554 Schwarz criterion 1.495725 Log likelihood -386.2760 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.431138 F-statistic 28.60375 Durbin-Watson stat 0.534721 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
PHỤ LỤC 2: KIỂM ĐỊNH TỰ TƢƠNG QUAN
2.1 Biến phụ thuộc DR
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 162.5942 Prob. F(2,560) 0.0000 Obs*R-squared 211.6030 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0000
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 09/21/14 Time: 23:03 Sample: 1 576
Included observations: 576
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. IO 0.028214 0.040940 0.689150 0.4910 SO 0.006143 0.031972 0.192150 0.8477 FO -0.048548 0.035197 -1.379326 0.1683 BSIZE -0.000121 0.004227 -0.028580 0.9772 NED -0.000523 0.025305 -0.020665 0.9835 CEOD -0.007713 0.011299 -0.682591 0.4951 ROA 0.171767 0.067177 2.556928 0.0108 SIZE -0.010931 0.011992 -0.911476 0.3624 TANG -0.006441 0.029893 -0.215477 0.8295 RISK 0.020450 0.149815 0.136504 0.8915 TAX 0.064532 0.041831 1.542680 0.1235 DY -0.038859 0.068216 -0.569639 0.5692 AGE 0.000193 0.000329 0.586557 0.5577 C 0.116540 0.140488 0.829539 0.4072 RESID(-1) 0.511187 0.041562 12.29944 0.0000 RESID(-2) 0.160729 0.041901 3.835925 0.0001 R-squared 0.367366 Mean dependent var 1.14E-16 Adjusted R-squared 0.350421 S.D. dependent var 0.151931 S.E. of regression 0.122451 Akaike info criterion -1.334826 Sum squared resid 8.396783 Schwarz criterion -1.213823 Log likelihood 400.4300 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.287637 F-statistic 21.67923 Durbin-Watson stat 1.926019 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 09/21/14 Time: 23:06 Sample: 1 576
Included observations: 576
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. IO 0.150573 0.205010 0.734465 0.4630 SO -0.017488 0.160099 -0.109233 0.9131 FO -0.201792 0.176103 -1.145872 0.2523 BSIZE -0.004179 0.021162 -0.197486 0.8435 NED -0.114908 0.126855 -0.905822 0.3654 CEOD -0.051587 0.056606 -0.911332 0.3625 ROA 0.533846 0.334397 1.596444 0.1110 SIZE 0.012907 0.059916 0.215426 0.8295 TANG 0.101682 0.149696 0.679258 0.4973 RISK -0.108078 0.749341 -0.144231 0.8854 TAX 0.285468 0.209009 1.365817 0.1725 DY -0.181546 0.341226 -0.532039 0.5949 AGE -2.99E-05 0.001645 -0.018190 0.9855 C -0.131801 0.702273 -0.187677 0.8512 RESID(-1) 0.417942 0.041235 10.13552 0.0000 RESID(-2) 0.226628 0.041231 5.496494 0.0000 R-squared 0.315726 Mean dependent var 6.27E-16 Adjusted R-squared 0.297398 S.D. dependent var 0.731275 S.E. of regression 0.612965 Akaike info criterion 1.886367 Sum squared resid 210.4066 Schwarz criterion 2.007370 Log likelihood -527.2737 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.933557 F-statistic 17.22574 Durbin-Watson stat 1.981990 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
2.2 Biến phụ thuộc SD
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic Obs*R-squared 129.1930 Prob. F(2,560) 181.8584 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0000 0.0000
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID Method: Least Squares Date: 09/21/14 Time: 23:07 Sample: 1 576
Included observations: 576
Presample missing value lagged residuals set to zero.
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. IO 0.021156 0.123414 0.171426 0.8640 SO 0.045850 0.096513 0.475065 0.6349 FO 0.056906 0.106058 0.536561 0.5918 BSIZE -0.010365 0.012791 -0.810343 0.4181 NED 0.043474 0.076530 0.568070 0.5702 CEOD -0.017705 0.034117 -0.518948 0.6040 ROA 0.176024 0.201509 0.873529 0.3827 SIZE -0.068945 0.036343 -1.897100 0.0583 TANG -0.072594 0.090370 -0.803293 0.4221 RISK 0.508595 0.453185 1.122268 0.2622 TAX -0.145984 0.125900 -1.159524 0.2467 DY -0.014882 0.205824 -0.072302 0.9424 AGE -0.000717 0.000993 -0.722218 0.4705 C 0.882922 0.426527 2.070027 0.0389 RESID(-1) 0.653299 0.042056 15.53420 0.0000 RESID(-2) -0.010024 0.042413 -0.236345 0.8133 R-squared 0.405993 Mean dependent var 6.58E-16 Adjusted R-squared 0.390082 S.D. dependent var 0.473572 S.E. of regression 0.369847 Akaike info criterion 0.875927 Sum squared resid 76.60041 Schwarz criterion 0.996930 Log likelihood -236.2671 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.923117 F-statistic 25.51665 Durbin-Watson stat 1.981264 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
2.3 Biến phụ thuộc LD
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic Obs*R-squared 191.3749 Prob. F(2,560) 233.8520 Prob. Chi-Square(2) 0.0000 0.0000
PHỤ LỤC 3: KIỂM ĐỊNH PHƢƠNG SAI THAY ĐỔI
3.1 Biến phụ thuộc DR
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey
F-statistic 7.128093 Prob. F(13,562) 0.0000 Obs*R-squared 81.53047 Prob. Chi-Square(13) 0.0000 Scaled explained SS 72.35250 Prob. Chi-Square(13) 0.0000
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 09/20/14 Time: 20:42 Sample: 1 576
Included observations: 576
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.013588 0.033795 0.402074 0.6878 IO -0.009811 0.009848 -0.996301 0.3195 SO -0.000813 0.007699 -0.105537 0.9160 FO 0.014021 0.008455 1.658343 0.0978 BSIZE -0.002218 0.001018 -2.178104 0.0298 NED 0.008363 0.006098 1.371365 0.1708 CEOD -0.001306 0.002719 -0.480334 0.6312 ROA -0.054877 0.016019 -3.425761 0.0007 SIZE 0.002342 0.002883 0.812413 0.4169 TANG -0.018760 0.007200 -2.605543 0.0094 RISK 0.235969 0.036072 6.541587 0.0000 TAX -0.022327 0.010027 -2.226679 0.0264 DY 0.028438 0.016407 1.733239 0.0836 AGE -0.000290 7.92E-05 -3.660413 0.0003 R-squared 0.141546 Mean dependent var 0.023043 Adjusted R-squared 0.121688 S.D. dependent var 0.031491 S.E. of regression 0.029513 Akaike info criterion -4.183992 Sum squared resid 0.489499 Schwarz criterion -4.078115 Log likelihood 1218.990 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.142701 F-statistic 7.128093 Durbin-Watson stat 1.310637 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Test Equation:
Dependent Variable: RESID^2 Method: Least Squares Date: 09/20/14 Time: 20:45 Sample: 1 576
Included observations: 576
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -1.480695 2.840881 -0.521210 0.6024 IO -1.730133 0.827794 -2.090052 0.0371 SO -0.385697 0.647200 -0.595947 0.5515