CHƢƠNG 5 : KẾT LUẬN
5.2 Hạn chế của luận văn
còn tồn tại những hạn chế nhất định:
Cỡ mẫu trong nghiên cứu là 68 quốc gia, trong khi hiện nay có 135 quốc gia đang phát triển, các nước bị loại ra khỏi mẫu nghiên cứu do hạn chế về thông tin dữ liệu.
Do giới hạn về số lượng và chất lượng của số liệu nên bài nghiên cứu của tác giả rất tiếc đã khơng tìm thấy mối quan hệ có ý nghĩa thống kê mạnh để ủng hộ cho lập luận và kết quả nghiên cứu trước đó rằng các yếu tố quốc gia cụ thể ảnh hưởng đến cách thức mà nợ ảnh hưởng đến nền kinh tế như đã thể hiện với nợ nước ngoài (Presbitero, 2008; Cordella Ricci và Ruiz Arranz, 2010), cũng như tổng nợ công là một trở ngại đối với tăng trưởng kinh tế chỉ ở các nước với các tổ chức tốt và các chính sách kinh tế vĩ mơ ổn định.
Nếu điều kiện cho phép để tiến hành một nghiên cứu tiếp theo, tác giả sẽ cố gắng khắc phục những hạn chế này và nghiên cứu, việc sử dụng mẫu với kích cỡ lớn hơn là cần thiết để nâng cao khả năng tổng quát hóa của đề tài, đồng thời tác giả sẽ điều tra thêm về tác động của nợ cơng đến tăng trưởng thơng qua các chính sách kinh tế.
DANH MỤC TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO Tài liệu tiếng Việt
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2. Nguyễn Hoàng Phương, 2007. Ước lượng hiệu quả của vốn ODA đối với tăng
trưởng kinh tế tại Việt Nam. Nguồn tài chính trong nước và nước ngoài cho
tăng trưởng ở Việt Nam, Diễn đàn phát triển Việt Nam, NXB Lao động xã hội.
3. Phạm Văn Dũng, 2011. Nợ nước ngoài và tăng trưởng kinh tế của Việt Nam.
Luận văn Thạc sĩ. Trường Đại học Kinh tế Thành phố Hồ chí minh.
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PHỤ LỤC
Phụ lục 1: Kết quả hồi quy mơ hình nợ cơng – tăng trưởng (Base case)
Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(11) = 2.67 Prob > chi2 = 0.994 Hansen test excluding group: chi2(59) = 53.19 Prob > chi2 = 0.689
iv(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region) Difference (null H = exogenous): chi2(28) = 9.57 Prob > chi2 = 1.000
Hansen test excluding group: chi2(42) = 46.28 Prob > chi2 = 0.300 GMM instruments for levels
Difference-in-Hansen tests of exogeneity of instrument subsets: (Robust, but weakened by many instruments.)
Hansen test of overid. restrictions: chi2(70) = 55.85 Prob > chi2 = 0.891 (Not robust, but not weakened by many instruments.)
Sargan test of overid. restrictions: chi2(70) = 144.31 Prob > chi2 = 0.000 Arellano-Bond test for AR(2) in first differences: z = -1.77 Pr > z = 0.077 Arellano-Bond test for AR(1) in first differences: z = -3.78 Pr > z = 0.000 D.(laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt)
GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) _cons
3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region
legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region Standard
Instruments for levels equation
L(1/2).(laggdp invest inflat human open cpia pdebt)
GMM-type (missing=0, separate instruments for each period unless collapsed) 3.region 4.region 5.region 6.region)
D.(legal ethnic 1b.year 2.year 3.year 4.year 5.year 1b.region 2.region Standard
Instruments for first differences equation
_cons .255026 .1389334 1.84 0.071 -.0222863 .5323382 6 -.0063248 .0137743 -0.46 0.648 -.0338186 .0211689 5 -.0071333 .0111257 -0.64 0.524 -.0293403 .0150736 4 .0005935 .0141386 0.04 0.967 -.0276274 .0288144 3 -.0007116 .0098766 -0.07 0.943 -.0204254 .0190023 2 .0022601 .0083309 0.27 0.787 -.0143684 .0188886 region 5 -.0023353 .0077674 -0.30 0.765 -.0178391 .0131684 4 -.0035111 .0076678 -0.46 0.649 -.018816 .0117939 3 .0071282 .0052435 1.36 0.179 -.0033379 .0175943 2 .0104846 .0027759 3.78 0.000 .0049439 .0160254 year ethnic -.0108532 .0138034 -0.79 0.434 -.0384049 .0166986 legal .0013988 .0035641 0.39 0.696 -.0057151 .0085127 pdebt -.0182216 .008223 -2.22 0.030 -.0346348 -.0018084 cpia .0043217 .0094874 0.46 0.650 -.0146153 .0232586 open .0186966 .0080249 2.33 0.023 .0026789 .0347143 human -.0524518 .0288102 -1.82 0.073 -.1099573 .0050537 inflat -.005049 .0038191 -1.32 0.191 -.012672 .0025739 invest .0258517 .0104133 2.48 0.016 .0050668 .0466367 laggdp -.0108207 .0056655 -1.91 0.060 -.022129 .0004876