CHƯƠNG 5 : KẾT LUẬN
5.4 Hướng nghiên cứu tiếp theo
Từ các hạn chế của luận văn, tác giả đưa ra một số hướng nghiên cứu tiếp theo của đề tài này. Đầu tiên, mở rộng mẫu dữ liệu bao gồm thêm các ngân hàng hồi giáo (Islamic bank). Các ngân hàng hồi giáo phải tuân thủ luật pháp và thơng lệ hồi giáo đó là cấm các giao dịch lãi và giao dịch phái sinh. Đây là khác biệt lớn so với các ngân hàng thương mại thông thường trong mẫu nghiên cứu. Bên cạnh việc mở rộng mẫu dữ liệu, tác giả sử dụng các phương pháp khác nhau để lượng hóa ổn định ngân hàng và mức độ cạnh tranh để nâng cao độ tin cậy của đề tài.
Hướng phát triển của đề tài có thể khai thác ở khía cạnh kiểm tra mối quan hệ phi tuyến giữa cạnh tranh và ổn định. Kết quả nghiên cứu sẽ đóng góp nhiều cho cơng tác của các nhà quản lý chính sách để điều chỉnh mức độ cạnh tranh phù hợp đảm bảo duy trì ổn định ngân hàng, ổn định hệ thống tài chính.
Tóm lại, hướng nghiên cứu phát triển như đề xuất có thể mở rộng và khắc phục những hạn chế còn tồn tại của đề tài. Trong tương lai, tác giả sẽ mở rộng và kết hợp xem xét tác động các yếu tố khác lên mối tương quan giữa cạnh tranh và ổn định trong lĩnh vực ngân hàng. Bên cạnh đó, tập trung nghiên cứu sâu hơn vào thị trường Việt Nam để nâng giá trị đóng góp thực tiễn của đề tài.
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TÀI LIỆU TRANG WEB
1. Heritage Foundation: http://
2. World Bank, Doing Business:
PHỤ LỤC Phụ lục 1: Danh mục các nước Đông Nam Á
Brunei Myanmar
Cambodia Philippines
Indonesia Singapore
Laos Thailand
Phụ lục 2. Thống kê mô tả của các biến
sum logZ badL Lerner banksize LtoA FitoA Legalright spvision logGDP Restr Freedom Gov
Phụ lục 2. 1 Chỉ số Lerner- Hồi quy mơ hình tác động cố định (Fixed effects model – FEM)
xtreg lncost lnQ lnQ2 lnW1 lnW2 lnW3 lnQlnW1 lnQlnW2 lnQlnW3 lnW1W2 lnW1W3 lnW2W3 lnW1sq lnW2sq lnW3sq trend trend2 lnW1trend lnW2trend lnW3 trend lnQtrend ,fe
Gov 1,120 .1285714 .3348745 0 1 Freedom 1,120 3.73375 .3359021 3 6.1 Restr 1,120 6.564286 .8722571 5 8 logGDP 1,112 1.67789 .4119642 -2.949867 2.131322 spvision 1,120 12.01319 1.345575 9.692308 14 Legalright 1,120 5.485714 2.705664 1 12 FitoA 953 .0127538 .013282 .0000252 .1121905 LtoA 953 .6233726 .1452024 .0000827 1.022242 banksize 956 .3987002 3.484916 -9.873172 6.012013 Lerner 611 .1986791 .1234644 -.5243991 .5980555 badL 601 .0288758 .0592233 .000741 1.343508 logZ 951 3.504334 .8822768 -.6606214 5.790268 Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max
Phụ lục 2. 2 Chỉ số Lerner- Hồi quy mơ hình tác động ngẫu nhiên (Random
effects model – REM)
.
F test that all u_i=0: F(97, 502) = 30.11 Prob > F = 0.0000 rho .95356368 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
sigma_e .06192309 sigma_u .28060704 _cons -1.50836 .404831 -3.73 0.000 -2.303731 -.7129878 lnQtrend -.00148 .0011517 -1.29 0.199 -.0037428 .0007827 trend 0 (omitted) lnW3 0 (omitted) lnW2trend -.0003974 .0032094 -0.12 0.902 -.006703 .0059081 lnW1trend -.0104489 .0022521 -4.64 0.000 -.0148736 -.0060242 trend2 -.0006517 .0006216 -1.05 0.295 -.0018729 .0005695 trend -.0354825 .013936 -2.55 0.011 -.0628626 -.0081024 lnW3sq .0099772 .0037 2.70 0.007 .0027078 .0172467 lnW2sq .0057055 .0173641 0.33 0.743 -.0284098 .0398207 lnW1sq -.0139769 .0079276 -1.76 0.078 -.0295523 .0015986 lnW2W3 -.0033241 .0117669 -0.28 0.778 -.0264425 .0197944 lnW1W3 -.1043038 .0094858 -11.00 0.000 -.1229404 -.0856671 lnW1W2 -.0118327 .0193465 -0.61 0.541 -.0498427 .0261773 lnQlnW3 -.0106872 .0032478 -3.29 0.001 -.0170682 -.0043062 lnQlnW2 -.0066726 .0106823 -0.62 0.532 -.0276602 .014315 lnQlnW1 .0170042 .0034015 5.00 0.000 .0103212 .0236872 lnW3 -.1494482 .0685176 -2.18 0.030 -.2840649 -.0148316 lnW2 .2835478 .1421869 1.99 0.047 .0041932 .5629025 lnW1 -.2635587 .0800876 -3.29 0.001 -.4209069 -.1062105 lnQ2 .0046796 .0042707 1.10 0.274 -.0037111 .0130704 lnQ .9423172 .0486561 19.37 0.000 .8467224 1.037912 lncost Coef. Std. Err. t P>|t| [95% Conf. Interval] corr(u_i, Xb) = 0.4547 Prob > F = 0.0000 F(19,502) = 445.28 overall = 0.9912 max = 8 between = 0.9929 avg = 6.3 within = 0.9440 min = 1 R-sq: Obs per group:
Group variable: id Number of groups = 98 Fixed-effects (within) regression Number of obs = 619 note: trend omitted because of collinearity
xtreg lncost lnQ lnQ2 lnW1 lnW2 lnW3 lnQlnW1 lnQlnW2 lnQlnW3 lnW1W2 lnW1W3 lnW2W3 lnW1sq lnW2sq lnW3sq trend trend2 lnW1trend lnW2trend lnW3trend lnQtrend ,re theta
rho .80725917 (fraction of variance due to u_i)
sigma_e .06171677 sigma_u .12630566 _cons -.9696284 .3983383 -2.43 0.015 -1.750357 -.1888997 lnQtrend .0014393 .0006518 2.21 0.027 .0001618 .0027167 lnW3trend -.0033686 .0022724 -1.48 0.138 -.0078225 .0010853 lnW2trend .0027302 .0033292 0.82 0.412 -.0037948 .0092552 lnW1trend -.0104117 .0025148 -4.14 0.000 -.0153405 -.0054829 trend2 -.0013288 .0006516 -2.04 0.041 -.002606 -.0000516 trend -.0384766 .0155152 -2.48 0.013 -.0688859 -.0080674 lnW3sq .0067564 .0038329 1.76 0.078 -.0007559 .0142687 lnW2sq .0186013 .0169488 1.10 0.272 -.0146176 .0518203 lnW1sq .0046704 .0062897 0.74 0.458 -.0076572 .016998 lnW2W3 .0015243 .0118674 0.13 0.898 -.0217353 .0247839 lnW1W3 -.1010836 .0096083 -10.52 0.000 -.1199155 -.0822517 lnW1W2 -.0184889 .0196294 -0.94 0.346 -.0569618 .0199841 lnQlnW3 -.0094877 .0031688 -2.99 0.003 -.0156984 -.0032769 lnQlnW2 -.0125387 .0069625 -1.80 0.072 -.0261848 .0011075 lnQlnW1 .028048 .0025279 11.10 0.000 .0230935 .0330026 lnW3 -.1534614 .0686786 -2.23 0.025 -.2880691 -.0188538 lnW2 .4114591 .1378297 2.99 0.003 .141318 .6816003 lnW1 -.1633417 .0787296 -2.07 0.038 -.317649 -.0090345 lnQ2 -.0074308 .0010146 -7.32 0.000 -.0094195 -.0054422 lnQ .9736859 .0329877 29.52 0.000 .9090312 1.038341 lncost Coef. Std. Err. z P>|z| [95% Conf. Interval] 0.5610 0.6734 0.8184 0.8298 0.8298
min 5% median 95% max theta
corr(u_i, X) = 0 (assumed) Prob > chi2 = 0.0000 Wald chi2(20) = 51913.70 overall = 0.9965 max = 8 between = 0.9975 avg = 6.3 within = 0.9414 min = 1 R-sq: Obs per group:
Group variable: id Number of groups = 98 Random-effects GLS regression Number of obs = 619
Phụ lục 2. 3 Kiểm định lựa chọn mơ hình
Phụ lục 3. Ma trận hệ số tương quan
Phụ lục 4. Chỉ số Lerner theo quốc gia và theo năm (2011-2018)