Luận văn mới dừng ở mức nghiên cứu đánh giá mức độ không sẵn sàng của hệ thống rơle bảo vệ, tuy nhiên vẫn còn nhiều vấn đề khác cần phải được nghiên cứu trong tương lai như:
- Đánh giá mức độ an toàn của hệ thống rơle bảo vệ tránh các trường hợp tác động nhầm, không mong muốn.
- So sánh các sơ đồ về mặt kinh tế để từ đó có thể quyết định việc đầu tư hệ thống rơle bảo vệ với mức độ nào là phù hợp.
PHỤ LỤC
Phụ lục 1. Kết quả tính toán cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ rút gọn
1. Số liệu tính toán trong cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ rút gọn
Primary Events Database =======================
Database Filename: So_do_rut_gon.ped ID: Hong_BI
Probability: 9.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY BIEN DONG DIEN ID: Hong_DayBI
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DI DAY MACH MAY BIEN DONG DIEN ID: Hong_DayDC
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DAY MACH NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU ID: Hong_MCCA
Probability: 2.0E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY SAT DIEN PHIA CAO AP ID: Hong_MCTA
Probability: 2.0E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA TRUNG AP ID: Hong_NguonDC
Probability: 3.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG HE THONG NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU ID: Hong_PC_PMem
Probability: 5.0E-6 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI HE THONG PHAN CUNG VA PHAN MEM DIEU KHIEN ROLE ID: Hong_RL
Type: Basic Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG ROLE BAO VE ID: Loi_khac
Probability: 1.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAC LOI KHONG RO RANG ID: Sai_CH_Role
Probability: 0.0010 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAI DAT SAI CAU HINH ROLE
2. Kết quả tính toán cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ rút gọn
Monte Carlo Simulation ====================== Tree : So_do_Rut_gon.fta Number of primary events = 10 Number of tests = 10000 Unit Time span used = 1.000000 Number of system failures = 10000
Probability of at least = 1.770987E-003 ( exact ) one component failure
Probability of top event = 1.770987E-003 ( +/- 1.770987E-005 )
Rank Failure mode Failures Estimated Probability Importance 1 Sai_CH_Role 5703 1.009994E-003 ( +/- 1.337418E-005 ) 57.03% 2 Hong_MCTA 1139 2.017154E-004 ( +/- 5.976916E-006 ) 11.39% 3 Hong_MCCA 1085 1.921521E-004 ( +/- 5.833513E-006 ) 10.85% 4 Hong_RL 759 1.344179E-004 ( +/- 4.879061E-006 ) 7.59% 5 Hong_BI 489 8.660125E-005 ( +/- 3.916244E-006 ) 4.89% 6 Hong_DayDC 302 5.348380E-005 ( +/- 3.077647E-006 ) 3.02% 7 Hong_DayBI 271 4.799374E-005 ( +/- 2.915412E-006 ) 2.71% 8 Hong_NgDC 163 2.886708E-005 ( +/- 2.261045E-006 ) 1.63% 9 Loi_khac 52 9.209131E-006 ( +/- 1.277077E-006 ) 0.52% 10 Hong_PC_PMem 34 6.021355E-006 ( +/- 1.032654E-006 ) 0.34% 11 Hong_MCCA 1 1.770987E-007 ( +/- 1.770987E-007 ) 0.01% Sai_CH_Role
Sai_CH_Role
13 Hong_NgDC 1 1.770987E-007 ( +/- 1.770987E-007 ) 0.01% Sai_CH_Role
Compressed:
Rank Failure mode Failures Estimated Probability Importance 1 Hong_PC_PMem 34 6.021355E-006 ( +/- 1.032654E-006 ) 0.34% 2 Loi_khac 52 9.209131E-006 ( +/- 1.277077E-006 ) 0.52% 3 Hong_NgDC 164 2.904418E-005 ( +/- 2.267970E-006 ) 1.64% 4 Hong_DayBI 271 4.799374E-005 ( +/- 2.915412E-006 ) 2.71% 5 Hong_DayDC 302 5.348380E-005 ( +/- 3.077647E-006 ) 3.02% 6 Hong_BI 489 8.660125E-005 ( +/- 3.916244E-006 ) 4.89% 7 Hong_RL 759 1.344179E-004 ( +/- 4.879061E-006 ) 7.59% 8 Hong_MCCA 1086 1.923292E-004 ( +/- 5.836201E-006 ) 10.86% 9 Hong_MCTA 1140 2.018925E-004 ( +/- 5.979540E-006 ) 11.40% 10 Sai_CH_Role 5706 1.010525E-003 ( +/- 1.337769E-005 ) 57.06%
Primary Event Analysis:
Event Failure contrib. Importance Hong_BI 8.660126E-005 4.89% Hong_DayBI 4.799374E-005 2.71% Hong_DayDC 5.348380E-005 3.02% Hong_MCCA 1.923292E-004 10.86% Hong_MCTA 2.018925E-004 11.40% Hong_NgDC 2.904418E-005 1.64% Hong_PC_PMem 6.021355E-006 0.34% Hong_RL 1.344179E-004 7.59% Loi_khac 9.209131E-006 0.52% Sai_CH_Role 1.010525E-003 57.06%
Giá trị không sẵn sàng để loại trừ sự cố trong vùng của sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ
rút gọn là: 6
10 99 ,
Phụ lục 2. Kết quả tính toán cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ mở rộng
1. Số liệu tính toán trong cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ mở rộng
Primary Events Database =======================
Database Filename: So_do_Mo_rong.ped ID: Hong_BI_C1
Probability: 9.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_BI_C2
Probability: 9.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_DayBI_C1
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DI DAY MACH MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_DayBI_C2
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DI DAY MACH MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_DayDC_C1
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DAY MACH NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_DayDC_C2
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DAY MACH NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_MCCA
Probability: 8.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: MÁY CAT CAO AP KHONG CAT DUOC DONG SU CO ID: Hong_MCCA_C1
Probability: 1.2E-4 Type: Basic
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA CAO AP BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_MCCA_C2
Probability: 1.2E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA CAO AP BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_MCTA
Probability: 8.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: MÁY CAT TRUNG AP KHONG CAT DUOC DONG SU CO ID: Hong_MCTA_C1
Probability: 1.2E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA TRUNG AP BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_MCTA_C2
Probability: 1.2E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA TRUNG AP BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_NgDC_C1
Probability: 3.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG HE THONG NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_NgDC_C2
Probability: 3.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG HE THONG NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_PC_PM_C1
Probability: 5.0E-6 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI HE THONG PHAN CUNG, PHAN MEM DIEU KHIEN ROLE BAO VE CHINH 1
ID: Hong_PC_PM_C2 Probability: 5.0E-6 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI HE THONG PHAN CUNG, PHAN MEM DIEU KHIEN ROLE BAO VE CHINH 2
ID: Hong_RL_C1 Probability: 1.37E-4
Type: Basic Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG ROLE BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_RL_C2
Probability: 1.37E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG ROLE BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Loi_khac_C1
Probability: 1.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAC LOI KHONG RO RANG BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Loi_khac_C2
Probability: 1.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAC LOI KHONG RO RANG BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Sai_CH_RL_C1
Probability: 0.0010 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAI DAT SAI CAI HINH ROLE BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Sai_CH_RL_C2
Probability: 0.00125 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAI DAT SAI CAI HINH ROLE BAO VE CHINH 2
2. Kết quả tính toán cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ mở rộng
Monte Carlo Simulation ====================== Tree : So_do_Mo_rong.fta Number of primary events = 22 Number of tests = 10000 Unit Time span used = 1.000000 Number of system failures = 420
Probability of at least = 3.628750E-003 ( exact ) one component failure
Probability of top event = 1.524075E-004 ( +/- 7.436725E-006 )
Rank Failure mode Failures Estimated Probability Importance 1 Hong_MCCA 207 7.511513E-005 ( +/- 5.220863E-006 ) 49.29% 2 Hong_MCTA 200 7.257501E-005 ( +/- 5.131828E-006 ) 47.62%
3 Sai_CH_RL_C1 6 2.177250E-006 ( +/- 8.888587E-007 ) 1.43% Sai_CH_RL_C2
4 Hong_RL_C1 3 1.088625E-006 ( +/- 6.285180E-007 ) 0.71% Sai_CH_RL_C2
5 Hong_MCCA_C1 1 3.628750E-007 ( +/- 3.628750E-007 ) 0.24% Sai_CH_RL_C2
6 Hong_MCCA 1 3.628750E-007 ( +/- 3.628750E-007 ) 0.24% Sai_CH_RL_C1
7 Hong_BI_C1 1 3.628750E-007 ( +/- 3.628750E-007 ) 0.24% Sai_CH_RL_C2
8 Hong_MCTA_C1 1 3.628750E-007 ( +/- 3.628750E-007 ) 0.24% Sai_CH_RL_C2
Compressed:
Rank Failure mode Failures Estimated Probability Importance 1 Hong_MCTA 200 7.257501E-005 ( +/- 5.131828E-006 ) 47.62% 2 Hong_MCCA 208 7.547801E-005 ( +/- 5.233458E-006 ) 49.52% 3 Hong_MCTA_C1 1 3.628750E-007 ( +/- 3.628750E-007 ) 0.24% Sai_CH_RL_C2
4 Hong_BI_C1 1 3.628750E-007 ( +/- 3.628750E-007 ) 0.24% Sai_CH_RL_C2
5 Hong_MCCA_C1 1 3.628750E-007 ( +/- 3.628750E-007 ) 0.24% Sai_CH_RL_C2
6 Hong_RL_C1 3 1.088625E-006 ( +/- 6.285180E-007 ) 0.71% Sai_CH_RL_C2
7 Sai_CH_RL_C1 6 2.177250E-006 ( +/- 8.888587E-007 ) 1.43% Sai_CH_RL_C2
Primary Event Analysis:
Event Failure contrib. Importance Hong_BI_C1 3.628751E-007 0.24% Hong_BI_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayBI_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayBI_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayDC_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayDC_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_MCCA 7.547801E-005 49.52% Hong_MCCA_C1 3.628751E-007 0.24% Hong_MCCA_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_MCTA 7.257501E-005 47.62% Hong_MCTA_C1 3.628751E-007 0.24% Hong_MCTA_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_NgDC_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_NgDC_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_PC_PM_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00%
Hong_PC_PM_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_RL_C1 1.088625E-006 0.71% Hong_RL_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Loi_khac_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Loi_khac_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Sai_CH_RL_C1 2.177250E-006 1.43% Sai_CH_RL_C2 4.354501E-006 2.86%
Giá trị không sẵn sàng để loại trừ sự cố trong vùng của sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ mở rộng là: 152,4106.
Phụ lục 3. Kết quả tính toán cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ tiêu chuẩn
1. Số liệu tính toán trong cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ rút gọn
Primary Events Database =======================
Database Filename: So_do_tieu_chuan.ped ID: BVSL_C1
Probability: 9.0E-7 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: SU CO PHAT HIEN BOI BAO VE SO LECH 1 ID: BVSL_C2
Probability: 9.0E-7 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: SU CO PHAT HIEN BOI BAO VE SO LECH 2 ID: Hong_3BI_C1
Probability: 2.7E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG 3 MAY BIEN DONG DIEN PHIA 22KV BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_3BI_C2
Probability: 2.7E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG 3 MAY BIEN DONG DIEN PHIA 22KV BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_BI_C1
Probability: 5.4E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_BI_C2
Probability: 5.4E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_BI_TT
Probability: 9.0E-6 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY BIEN DONG DIEN TRUNG TINH ID: Hong_DayBI_C1
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DI DAY MACH MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_DayBI_C2
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DI DAY MACH MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_DayBI_TT
Probability: 1.7E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DI DAY MACH MAY BIEN DONG DIEN TRUNG TINH ID: Hong_DayDC_C1
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DAY MACH NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_DayDC_C2
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DAY MACH NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_MCCA
Probability: 8.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: MÁY CAT CAO AP KHONG CAT DUOC DONG SU CO ID: Hong_MCCA_C1
Probability: 1.2E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA CAO AP BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_MCCA_C2
Probability: 1.2E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA CAO AP BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_MCTA
Probability: 8.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: MÁY CAT TRUNG AP KHONG CAT DUOC DONG SU CO ID: Hong_MCTA_C1
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA TRUNG AP BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_MCTA_C2
Probability: 1.2E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG MAY CAT DIEN PHIA TRUNG AP BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_NgDC_C1
Probability: 3.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG HE THONG NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_NgDC_C2
Probability: 3.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG HE THONG NGUON DIEN MOT CHIEU BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Hong_PC_PM_C1
Probability: 5.0E-6 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI HE THONG PHAN CUNG, PHAN MEM DIEU KHIEN ROLE BAO VE CHINH 1
ID: Hong_PC_PM_C2 Probability: 5.0E-6 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI HE THONG PHAN CUNG, PHAN MEM DIEU KHIEN ROLE BAO VE CHINH 2
ID: Hong_RL_C1 Probability: 1.37E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG ROLE BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Hong_RL_C2
Probability: 1.37E-4 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: HU HONG ROLE BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Loi_Day3BI_C1
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DI DAY MACH 3 MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Loi_Day3BI_C2
Probability: 5.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: LOI DI DAY MACH 3 MAY BIEN DONG DIEN BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Loi_khac_C1
Probability: 1.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAC LOI KHONG RO RANG BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Loi_khac_C2
Probability: 1.0E-5 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAC LOI KHONG RO RANG BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Sai_CH_RL_C1
Probability: 0.0010 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAI DAT SAI CAI HINH ROLE BAO VE CHINH 1 ID: Sai_CH_RL_C2
Probability: 0.00125 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: CAI DAT SAI CAI HINH ROLE BAO VE CHINH 2 ID: Su_co_F64
Probability: 1.0E-7 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: SU CO PHAT HIEN BOI BAO VE CHONG CHAM DAT HAN CHE F64 ID: Su_co_F64_1
Probability: 1.0E-7 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
Description: SU CO PHAT HIEN BOI BAO VE CHONG CHAM DAT HAN CHE F64 - 1 ID: Su_co_F64_2
Probability: 1.0E-7 Type: Basic
Dormant: No
2. Kết quả tính toán cây sự cố sơ đồ phương thức bảo vệ tiêu chuẩn
Monte Carlo Simulation ====================== Tree : So_do_Tieu_chuan.fta Number of primary events = 33 Number of tests = 10000 Unit Time span used = 1.000000 Number of system failures = 443
Probability of at least = 3.738443E-003 ( exact ) one component failure
Probability of top event = 1.656130E-004 ( +/- 7.868513E-006 )
Rank Failure mode Failures Estimated Probability Importance 1 Hong_MCCA 232 8.673188E-005 ( +/- 5.694227E-006 ) 52.37% 2 Hong_MCTA 210 7.850731E-005 ( +/- 5.417519E-006 ) 47.40% 3 Hong_MCTA 1 3.738443E-007 ( +/- 3.738443E-007 ) 0.23% Sai_CH_RL_C1
Compressed:
Rank Failure mode Failures Estimated Probability Importance 1 Hong_MCTA 211 7.888115E-005 ( +/- 5.430402E-006 ) 47.63% 2 Hong_MCCA 232 8.673188E-005 ( +/- 5.694227E-006 ) 52.37% Primary Event Analysis:
Event Failure contrib. Importance BVSL_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% BVSL_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_3BI_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_3BI_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_BI_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_BI_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_BI_TT 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayBI_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayBI_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayBI_TT 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayDC_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_DayDC_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_MCCA 8.673188E-005 52.37% Hong_MCCA_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_MCCA_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_MCTA 7.888115E-005 47.63% Hong_MCTA_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_MCTA_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_NgDC_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_NgDC_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00%
Hong_PC_PM_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_PC_PM_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_RL_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Hong_RL_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Loi_Day3BI_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Loi_Day3BI_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Loi_khac_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Loi_khac_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Sai_CH_RL_C1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Sai_CH_RL_C2 0.000000E+000 0.00% Su_co_F64 0.000000E+000 0.00% Su_co_F64_1 0.000000E+000 0.00% Su_co_F64_2 0.000000E+000 0.00%
Giá trị không sẵn sàng để loại trừ sự cố trong vùng của phương thức bảo vệ của sơ là: 165,6106.
TÀI LIỆU THAM KHẢO
1. Trần Bách, Lưới điện và Hệ thống điện (tập 2), NXB KH&KT 2008.
2. Héctor J. Altuve Ferrer, Ronald A. Schwartz, David A. Costello, Demetrios
A. Tziouvaras, and David Sánchez Escobedo, Using Fault Tree Analysis to
Evaluate Protection Scheme Redundancy, Schweitzer Engineering Laboratories, Inc.
3. Trần Đình Long, Trần Việt Anh, Sử dụng phương pháp cây sự cố trong phân
tích và đánh giá độ tin cậy của hệ thống bảo vệ và điều khiển, Tạp chí KH & CN số 2, tập 45, 2007.
4. Hướng dẫn sử dụng phần mềm OpenFTA, Formal Software Construction Limited.