Nh m kh c ph c nh ng h n ch trên tác gi đ xu t h ng nghiên c u thêm nh
sau:
B sung thêm m t s y u t qu c gia nh l m phát, t su t sinh l i, r i ro kinh doanh c a doanh nghi p.
Nên s d ng d li u b ng đ c nâng c p h n cho mô hình quy trong nghiên c u
sau đ có th ch ra đ c m i quan h sâu s c gi a n ng n h n, n dài h n và t ng
n mà t đó s có đ c các tranh lu n quan tr ng gi a l nh v c tài chính, n và t ng
tr ng c a doanh nghi p.
K T LU N CH NG 5
Trên c s nghiên c u đ nh l ng Ch ng 4, trong chng này lu n v n tóm t t l i
c s d li u, ph ng phápp nghiên c u và k t qu đ nh l ng nh m ch ra các nhân t nh h ng đ n c u trúc tài chính cho các doanh nghi p ngành ch bi n th c
ph m Vi t Nam.
Ngoài ra, bài nghiên c u ki n ngh m t s nh ng gi i pháp v ngu n tài tr v n cho các công ty niêm y t ngành ch bi n th c ph m.
K T LU N CHUNG
C u trúc tài chính là m t trong nh ng ch đ quan tr ng trong lý thuy t tài chính doanh nghi p.Vi c xác đ nh đ c m t c u trúc v n h p lý s giúp doanh nghi p t i thi u hoá chi phí s d ng v n bình quân và t i đa hoá giá tr c a doanh nghi p.
Trên c s nghiên c u th c nghi m c a các tác gi trên th gi i c ng nh Vi t
Nam.Tác gi th c hi n phân tích th c tr ng c u trúc tài chính và ki m đ nh các nhân t nh h ng đ n đòn b y tài chính c a các doanh nghi p ngành ch bi n th c
ph m Vi t Nam. M c tiêu c a đ tài nghiên c u h ngđ n là ki m đ nh m i quan
h gi a các y u t nh quy mô doanh nghi p, t c đ t ng tr ng, kh n ng thanh
kho n, tài s n c đ nh, t m ch n thu t kh u hao, l i nhu n công ty, c ng đ v n, đ c đi m riêng c a s n ph m v i đòn b y tài chính c a doanh nghi p trên c s đó
đ nh h ng nh ng gi i pháp hoàn thi n c u trúc tài chính cho các công ty ngành ch
bi n th c ph m Vi t Nam.
Tuy nhiên, bài nghiên c u v n còn m t m t s nh ng h n ch nh tác gi đã nêu trên, vì v y c n đ c nghiên c u thêm.
TI NG VI T
1. Bùi Phan Nhã Khanh (2012), “Nghiên c u các nhân t nh h ng đ n c u
trúc tài chính Doanh nghi p ngành ch t o niêm y t trên sàn HOSE” Tuy n
t p Báo cáo h i ngh Sinh viên Nghiên c u khoa h c, Tr ng i h c kinh t
i h c à N ng.
2. Hu nh H u M nh (2011), “B ng ch ng th c nghi m v nh ng nhân t tác
đ ng đ n c u trúc v n c a các doanh nghi p niêm y t trên th tr ng ch ng
khoán Vi t Nam” Lu n v n th c s kinh t , Tr ng i h c kinh t Tp. H Chí Minh.
3. Ph m Trí Cao, V Minh Châu (2009), Kinh t l ng ng d ng, i h c Kinh (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
t TP.HCM, Nhà xu t b n Th ng kê
4. Tr n ình Khôi Nguyên (2006), “Capital structure in small and medium- sized enterprises: the case of Viet Nam” ASEAN Economic Bulletin.
5. Tr n Ng c Th , Nguy n Th Ng c Trang, Phan Th Bích Nguy t, Nguy n
Th Liên Hoa, Nguy n Th Uyên Uyên (2005), Tài chính doanh nghi p hi n đ i, i h c Kinh t TP.HCM, Khoa Tài chính Doanh nghi p, Nhà xu t b n Th ng kê.
6. Cafef.vn: C ng thông tin, d li u tài chính – ch ng khoán Vi t Nam.
7. www.acbs.com.vn: Công ty ch ng khoán ACB
TI NG ANH
8. Abe De Jong et al (2008), “Capital Structure Around The World: What Firm- and Country-Specific Determinants Really Matter?”, Journal of Banking and Finance 32, 1954-1969
9. Attaullah shah và Tahir Hijazi (2004), “The Determinants of Capital Structure of Stock Exchange-listed Non-financial Firms in Pakistan” The Pakistan Development Review.
structure in developing countries", Journal of Finance 56 (2001), pp. 87-130 11.B.Prahalathan (2010), “The Determinants of Capital Structure: An empirical
Analysis of Listed Manufacturing Companies in Colombo Stock Exchange Market in SriLanka” Dept. of Commerce & Financial Management, University of Kelaniya, SriLanka.
12.Deesomsak, R., Paudyal, K. & Pescetto, G. (2004), “The Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from the Asia Pacific Region” Journal of Multinational Financial Management 14(4-5): 387-405.
13.Ferri và Jones, (1979) “Determinants of Financial Structure: A New Methodological Approach”, The Journal of Finance, 34(3):631-644.
14.Huang G., Song F.M. (2006), “The determinants of capital structure: Evidence from China”,China Economic Review, 17 (1), pp. 14-36.
15.Jean J.Chen (2003) “Determinants of capital structure of Chinese-listed companies”
16.Joy Pathak (2011), “What Determines Capital Structure of Listed Firms in India? Some Empirical Evidences from Indian Capital Market”, Baruch College, City University Of New York.
17.Nadeem Ahmed Sheikh, Zongjun Wang, (2011),"Determinants of capital structure: An empirical study of firms in manufacturing industry of Pakistan", Managerial Finance, Vol. 37 Iss: 2 pp. 117 – 133
18.Marsh, P, "The choice between equity and debt: An empirical study", Journal of Finance 37 (March 1982) pp. 121-44.
19.Michaelas, N., F. Chittenden and P. Poutziouris, "Financial Policy and Capital Structure Choice in U.K. SMEs: Empirical Evidence from Company Panel Data", Small Business Economics 12 (1999), pp. 113-30
20. Rami Zeitun, Gary Gang Tian, (2007) "Does ownership affect a firm's performance and default risk in Jordan?", Corporate Governance, Vol. 7 Iss: 1, pp.66 – 82.
Management 14, pp. 387-405.
22.Raghuram G. Rajan and Luigi Zingales (1995), “What Do We Know about Capital Structure? Some Evidence from International Data” The Journal of Finance Vol. 50, No. 5 (Dec., 1995), pp. 1421-1460
23.Tugba Bas, Gulnur Muradoglu và Kate Phylaktis (2009), “Determinants of Capital Structure in Developing Countries”.
24.Thomas L. Sporleder và LeeAnn E. Moss (2001) “Capital structure decisions of U.S-based food processing firms: a transaction cost economics perspective” the Western Coordinating Committee on Agribusiness, Las Vegas, Nevada.
25.Wanrapee Banchuenvijit, University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (2010), “Capital structure determinants of thai listed companies” .
26.Zehra Reimoo (2008), “Determinants of Capital Structure: Evidence from UK” A Dissertation presented in part consideration for the degree of “Master of Arts in Finance and Investment” .
PH L C 1 Ph L c 1 – Công th c tính Bi n đ c l p và Bi n gi i thích STT Bi n Công th c 01 TD = T ng n T ng tài s n 02 LTD = N dài h n T ng tài s n 03 STD = N ng n h n T ng tài s n
04 TANG = Tài s n c đ nh thu n
T ng tài s n
05 SIZE = Log (Doanh thu) (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
06 GROW = Doanh thu (t) –Doanh thu (t-1) T ng tài s n (t) - T ng tài s n (t-1) 07 UNI = Giá v n hàng bán
Doanh thu thu n
08 LIQ = Giá tr tài s n ng n h n
T ng n ng n h n 09 NDTS = Chi phí kh u hao T ng tài s n 10 PROF = EBIT Total Asset 11 CAPINT = T ng tài s n Doanh thu PH L C
B ng 2.1 - Ki m đ nh Hausman - Bi n ph thu c là T ng n
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Equation: TEV
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 32.276701 8 0.0001
B ng 2.2 - Ki m đ nh Hausman - Bi n ph thu c là N dài h n
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Equation: LTEV
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 30.954062 8 0.0001
B ng 2.3 - Ki m đ nh Hausman - Bi n ph thu c là N ng n h n
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Equation: STEV
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Chi-Sq. Statistic Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob.
Cross-section random 31.949953 8 0.0001
B ng 2.4 - Ki m đ nh Breusch - Pagan Lagrangian Bi n ph thu c là T ng n
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.140601 Prob. F(1,200) 0.708082 Obs*R-squared 0.147527 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.700910
Bi n ph thu c là N dài h n
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.003592 Prob. F(1,200) 0.952266 Obs*R-squared 0.003772 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.951028
B ng 2.6 - Ki m đ nh Breusch - Pagan Lagrangian
Bi n ph thu c là N ng n h n
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test:
F-statistic 0.210827 Prob. F(1,200) 0.646619 Obs*R-squared 0.221135 Prob. Chi-Square(1) 0.638177
TEV LTEV STEV CAPINT GROW LIQ NDTS PROF SIZE TANG UNI Mean 0.719759 0.401613 0.628618 0.996569 119.6827 2.143310 0.050095 0.250126 13.05026 0.964564 0.809914 Median 0.525310 0.369095 0.433575 0.767015 21.25734 1.375285 0.022815 0.123935 13.09187 0.566275 0.820500 Maximum 0.989400 0.501105 0.925621 12.25993 2053.059 1.617137 1.453710 5.525700 16.56167 12.17790 1.024970 Minimum 0.061240 0.068400 0.042020 0.032940 -95.17559 -2.589530 0.001650 0.004560 7.521320 0.158920 0.556450 Std. Dev. 1.148261 0.987912 1.015347 1.392001 355.9718 2.571213 0.132014 0.540982 1.330258 1.653682 0.106195 Skewness 4.651081 4.323395 4.918670 6.281198 3.592841 2.776250 7.253862 6.364455 -0.523908 4.528055 -2.298992 Kurtosis 25.74118 22.48260 29.32183 47.33859 15.49684 13.12003 67.20684 52.20746 45.72904 24.85400 17.58072 Jarque-Bera 5273.138 6898.430 3966.002 1167.287 7.416591 4884.102 7894.075 18609.32 1806.991 22537.79 6.927169 Probability 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.024519 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.031317 Sum 1.525.889 1.332.670 1.275.419 4.543.818 2.759.134 2.044.875 9.166.390 2.112.726 25372.73 5.302.672 1.717.017 Sum Sq. Dev. 277.6839 217.1291 205.5660 1390.334 342.6688 576.0795 1.697745 407.8501 26722675 61.68864 1.720446 Observations 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211 211
Dependent Variable: TEV Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/12/12 Time: 01:26 Sample: 2007 2011 (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 211
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. CAPINT 0.006958 0.027462 0.253379 0.8002 GROW -2.03E-05 0.000107 -0.190237 0.8493 LIQ -0.059813 0.015889 -3.764514 0.0002 NDTS -13.65777 1.365218 -10.00409 0.0000 PROF -0.090381 0.082958 -1.089471 0.2772 SIZE 0.050864 0.034218 -1.486464 0.0387 TANG 0.230207 0.075204 16.35818 0.0000 UNI 0.913772 0.433133 2.109678 0.0561 C 0.192799 0.601119 0.320734 0.7487 R-squared 0.788168 Mean dependent var 0.723170 Adjusted R-squared 0.779778 S.D. dependent var 1.149915 S.E. of regression 0.539630 Akaike info criterion 1.645850 Sum squared resid 58.82240 Schwarz criterion 1.788820 Log likelihood -164.6371 F-statistic 93.94810 Durbin-Watson stat 1.812789 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
B ng 2.9 Mô hình h i quy – Bi n ph thu c là N dài h n
Dependent Variable: LTEV Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/12/12 Time: 01:29 Sample: 2007 2011
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 211
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. CAPINT 0.003474 0.017722 0.196056 0.8448 GROW -2.51E-05 6.89E-05 -0.363712 0.7165 LIQ -0.029194 0.010253 -2.847258 0.0049 NDTS 3.168990 0.881011 3.596994 0.0604 PROF 0.061809 0.053535 1.154547 0.2496 SIZE 0.058818 0.022082 -2.663632 0.0084 TANG 0.343333 0.048531 7.074457 0.0000 UNI -0.602092 0.279512 -2.154082 0.0524
Adjusted R-squared 0.876115 S.D. dependent var 0.989386 S.E. of regression 0.348237 Akaike info criterion 0.769850 Sum squared resid 24.49631 Schwarz criterion 0.912820 Log likelihood -72.21914 F-statistic 186.6407 Durbin-Watson stat 1.687854 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
B ng 2.10 Mô hình h i quy – Bi n ph thu c là N ng n h n
Dependent Variable: STEV Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/12/12 Time: 01:31 Sample: 2007 2011
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 211
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. CAPINT 0.011393 0.024884 0.457845 0.6476 GROW -5.59E-05 9.68E-05 -0.577544 0.5642 LIQ -0.055141 0.014397 -3.830019 0.0002 NDTS -14.37776 1.237073 -11.62240 0.0000 PROF -0.032744 0.075172 -0.435594 0.6636 SIZE -0.057367 0.031006 -1.850147 0.0358 TANG 0.167351 0.068145 17.13031 0.0000 UNI 1.022848 0.392478 2.606131 0.0098 C 0.164977 0.544695 0.302879 0.7623 R-squared 0.677561 Mean dependent var 0.631597 Adjusted R-squared 0.668751 S.D. dependent var 1.016832 S.E. of regression 0.488977 Akaike info criterion 1.448717 Sum squared resid 48.29799 Schwarz criterion 1.591687 Log likelihood -143.8396 F-statistic 88.26424 Durbin-Watson stat 1.734770 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Wald Test:
Equation: Untitled
Test Statistic Value df Probability F-statistic 0.755485 (4, 202) 0.5554 Chi-square 3.021941 4 0.5542 Null Hypothesis Summary:
Normalized Restriction (= 0) Value Std. Err.
C(2) 0.006958 0.027462
C(3) -2.03E-05 0.000107
C(6) -0.090381 0.082958
C(7) -0.050864 0.034218
Restrictions are linear in coefficients.
B ng 2.12 Ki m đ nh th a bi n – Bi n ph thu c là N dài h n
Wald Test: Equation: LTEV1
Test Statistic Value df Probability F-statistic 1.366380 (5, 203) 0.2384 Chi-square 6.831898 5 0.2334 Null Hypothesis Summary:
Normalized Restriction (= 0) Value Std. Err.
C(2) 0.007116 0.018414
C(3) -8.70E-06 7.16E-05
C(5) -0.323803 0.305775 (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
C(6) 0.090220 0.055247
C(9) -0.543861 0.290416
Equation: Untitled
Test Statistic Value df Probability F-statistic 1.918544 (4, 202) 0.1087 Chi-square 7.674178 4 0.1043 Null Hypothesis Summary:
Normalized Restriction (= 0) Value Std. Err.
C(2) 0.011393 0.024884
C(3) -5.59E-05 9.68E-05
C(6) -0.032744 0.075172
C(9) 1.022848 0.392478
Restrictions are linear in coefficients.
B ng 2.14 – K t qu h i quy (đã đi u ch nh b b t bi n) Bi n ph thu c là T ng n
Dependent Variable: TEV Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/09/12 Time: 19:52 Sample: 2007 2011
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 212
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1.335919 0.553765 2.412428 0.0167 LIQ -0.068549 0.018630 -3.679489 0.0003 NDTS -1.511606 0.462982 -3.264933 0.0013 SIZE -0.072498 0.040565 -1.787209 0.0054 TANG 0.572898 0.036309 15.77828 0.0000 R-squared 0.680314 Mean dependent var 0.719759 Adjusted R-squared 0.674136 S.D. dependent var 1.148261 S.E. of regression 0.655479 Akaike info criterion 2.016401 Sum squared resid 88.93808 Schwarz criterion 2.095566 Log likelihood -208.7385 F-statistic 110.1275 Durbin-Watson stat 1.834998 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
Bi n ph thu c là N dài h n
Dependent Variable: LTEV Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/09/12 Time: 20:04 Sample: 2007 2011
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 212
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.834184 0.288430 2.892159 0.0042 LIQ -0.023657 0.010282 -2.300687 0.0224 SIZE -0.052606 0.021172 -2.484686 0.0138 TANG 0.523196 0.017871 29.27560 0.0000 R-squared 0.866276 Mean dependent var 0.601613 Adjusted R-squared 0.864347 S.D. dependent var 0.987912 S.E. of regression 0.363858 Akaike info criterion 0.834582 Sum squared resid 27.53769 Schwarz criterion 0.897914 Log likelihood -84.46573 F-statistic 449.1483 Durbin-Watson stat 1.559793 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
B ng 2.16 – K t qu h i quy (đã đi u ch nh b b t bi n) Bi n ph thu c là N ng n h n
Dependent Variable: STEV Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/09/12 Time: 20:22 Sample: 2007 2011
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 212
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1.458213 0.529303 2.754969 0.0064 LIQ -0.065247 0.017807 -3.664095 0.0003 NDTS -1.589380 0.442530 -3.591576 0.0004 SIZE -0.082609 0.038773 -2.130596 0.0343 TANG 0.485129 0.034705 13.97851 0.0000 R-squared 0.626463 Mean dependent var 0.628618
Log likelihood -199.1603 F-statistic 86.79056 Durbin-Watson stat 1.769651 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
B ng 2.17 – Mô hình h i quy ph - Bi n ph thu c là Kh n ng thanh kho n v i các bi n đ c l p còn l i
Dependent Variable: LIQ Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/09/12 Time: 21:15 Sample: 2007 2011
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 212 (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 5.698779 2.022786 2.817292 0.0053 NDTS -2.653015 1.713293 -1.548489 0.1230 SIZE -0.229862 0.150131 -1.531078 0.1273 TANG -0.438335 0.131675 -3.328922 0.0010 R-squared 0.112568 Mean dependent var 2.143310 Adjusted R-squared 0.099769 S.D. dependent var 2.571213 S.E. of regression 2.439580 Akaike info criterion 4.640216 Sum squared resid 1237.922 Schwarz criterion 4.703548 Log likelihood -487.8629 F-statistic 8.794756 Durbin-Watson stat 0.805423 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000016
B ng 2.18 – Mô hình h i quy ph - Bi n ph thu c là T m ch n thu t kh u hao v i các bi n đ c l p còn l i
Dependent Variable: NDTS Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/09/12 Time: 21:15 Sample: 2007 2011
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 212
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.413640 0.077816 5.315593 0.0000 LIQ -0.004296 0.002774 -1.548489 0.1230
TANG 0.036262 0.004822 7.520839 0.0000 R-squared 0.454908 Mean dependent var 0.050095 Adjusted R-squared 0.447046 S.D. dependent var 0.132014 S.E. of regression 0.098166 Akaike info criterion -1.785618 Sum squared resid 2.004422 Schwarz criterion -1.722286 Log likelihood 193.2755 F-statistic 57.86234 Durbin-Watson stat 1.235676 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
B ng 2.19 – Mô hình h i quy ph - Bi n ph thu c là
Quy mô công ty v i các bi n đ c l p còn l i
Dependent Variable: SIZE Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 10/09/12 Time: 21:16 Sample: 2007 2011
Cross-sections included: 43
Total panel (unbalanced) observations: 212
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 13.53811 0.121704 111.2381 0.0000 NDTS -3.886106 0.744094 -5.222600 0.0000 LIQ -0.048484 0.031666 -1.531078 0.1273 TANG -0.196211 0.060554 -3.240243 0.0014 R-squared 0.300694 Mean dependent var 13.05026 Adjusted R-squared 0.290608 S.D. dependent var 1.330258 S.E. of regression 1.120416 Akaike info criterion 3.083964 Sum squared resid 261.1089 Schwarz criterion 3.147296 Log likelihood -322.9002 F-statistic 29.81257 Durbin-Watson stat 0.214288 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000