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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK April 2013 Hopes, Realities, Risks International Monetary Fund World Economic and Financial Surveys ©2013 International Monetary Fund Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar Composition: Maryland Composition Cataloging-in-Publication Data World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund) World economic outlook : a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. — Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980– v. ; 28 cm. — (1981–1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365). — (1986– : World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877) Semiannual. Some issues also have thematic titles. Has occasional updates, 1984– 1. Economic development — Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting — Periodicals. 3. Economic policy — Periodicals. 4. International economic relations — Periodicals. I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund). III. Series: World economic and financial surveys. HC10.80 ISBN 978-1-61635-555-5 Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail: International Monetary Fund, Publication Services P.O. Box 92780, Washington, DC 20090, U.S.A. Tel.: (202) 623-7430 Fax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: publications@imf.org www.imfbookstore.org www.elibrary.imf.org International Monetary Fund | April 2013 iii Assumptions and Conventions ix Further Information and Data x Preface xi Foreword xiii Executive Summary xv Chapter 1. Global Prospects and Policies 1 Activity Is Beginning to Recover after the Slowdown in 2012 1 Ination Pressure Remains Generally under Control 9 Risks Are Still High in the Medium Term 14 Policy Challenges Center on Debt in Advanced Economies and Potential Excesses in Emerging Market and Developing Economies 19 Special Feature: Commodity Market Review 24 Box 1.1. e Great Divergence of Policies 32 Box 1.2. Public Debt Overhang and Private Sector Performance 36 Box 1.3. e Evolution of Current Account Decits in the Euro Area 39 References 42 Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 45 Europe: Diminished Crisis Risks amid Prolonged Stagnation 46 e United States and Canada: Growth Still Modest, but Brighter Spots Appearing 51 Asia: Laying Foundations for Shared Prosperity 53 Latin America and the Caribbean: Higher Growth Supported by Easy Financing Conditions 57 Middle East and North Africa: Narrowing Dierences in a Two-Speed Region 59 Commonwealth of Independent States: An Improving but Vulnerable Outlook 64 Sub-Saharan Africa: Strong Growth Continues 67 Spillover Feature: Spillovers from Policy Uncertainty in the United States and Europe 70 References 77 Chapter 3. The Dog That Didn’t Bark: Has Ination Been Muzzled or Was It Just Sleeping? 79 Introduction 79 e Missing Disination: Why Didn’t Ination Fall More? 80 How Much Should We Worry about Ination? 87 Conclusions 92 Appendix 3.1. Econometric Model 93 Box 3.1. Does Ination Targeting Still Makes Sense with a Flatter Phillips Curve? 94 References 95 CONTENTS iv International Monetary Fund | April 2013 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: HOPES, REALITIES, RISKS iv International Monetary Fund | April 2013 Chapter 4. Breaking through the Frontier: Can Today’s Dynamic Low-Income Countries Make It? 97 Introduction 97 LIC Takeos in Historical Perspective 98 What Lies within: e Role of Economic and Structural Policies and Institutions 103 Lessons from History 111 Policy Conclusions 118 Appendix 4.1. Data Denitions, Sources, and Country Groupings 119 Appendix 4.2. Additional Results and Alternative Measures of Takeos 123 Appendix 4.3. Logistic Regression and Robustness of the Baseline Results 125 References 129 Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, April 2013 133 Statistical Appendix 135 Assumptions 135 What’s New 136 Data and Conventions 136 Classication of Countries 137 General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classication 137 Table A. Classication by World Economic Outlook Groups and eir Shares in Aggregate GDP, Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2012 139 Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 140 Table C. European Union 140 Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 141 Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries 142 Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 144 List of Tables 148 Output (Tables A1–A4) 149 Ination (Tables A5–A7) 156 Financial Policies (Table A8) 161 Foreign Trade (Table A9) 162 Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 164 Balance of Payments and External Financing (Tables A13–A14) 170 Flow of Funds (Table A15) 172 Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A16) 176 World Economic Outlook Selected Topics 177 Tables Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 2 Table 2.1. Selected European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 48 Table 2.2. Selected Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 52 Table 2.3. Selected Asian Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 56 Table 2.4. Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 60 International Monetary Fund | April 2013 v CONTENTS International Monetary Fund | April 2013 v Table 2.5. Selected Middle East and North African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 62 Table 2.6. Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 66 Table 2.7. Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 69 Table 4.1. Takeos in Low-Income Countries, 1990–2011 99 Table 4.2. Takeos in Low-Income Countries before 1990 100 Table 4.3. Crises and the Ends of Growth Takeos in Low-Income Countries, 1970–2011 103 Table 4.4. Explaining Growth Takeos in Dynamic Developing Economies 112 Table 4.5. Data Sources 120 Table 4.6. Economy Groups 121 Table 4.7. Logistic Regression Robustness to Alternative Specications and Denition 127 Table 4.8. Logistic Regression Robustness to Alternative Estimation Methods, Full Sample 128 Table A1. Summary of World Output 149 Table A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand 150 Table A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP 151 Table A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP 153 Table A5. Summary of Ination 156 Table A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices 157 Table A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices 158 Table A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt 161 Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Prices 162 Table A10. Summary of Balances on Current Account 164 Table A11. Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account 166 Table A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account 167 Table A13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Net Financial Flows 170 Table A14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Private Financial Flows 171 Table A15. Summary of Sources and Uses of World Savings 172 Table A16. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario 176 Online Tables Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real per Capita GDP Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing and Excluding Social Security Schemes Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/ Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/ Borrowing Table B10. Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade in Goods and Services vi International Monetary Fund | April 2013 WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: HOPES, REALITIES, RISKS vi International Monetary Fund | April 2013 Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods Table B15. Advanced Economies: Current Account Transactions Table B16. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balances on Current Account Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Current Account Transactions Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Current Account Transactions Table B19. Summary of Balance of Payments, Financial Flows, and External Financing Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Balance of Payments and External Financing Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: Balance of Payments and External Financing Table B22. Summary of External Debt and Debt Service Table B23. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity and Type of Creditor Table B24. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt, by Maturity and Type of Creditor Table B25. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP Table B26. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios Table B27. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario: Selected Economic Indicators Figures Figure 1.1. Global Indicators 3 Figure 1.2. Current and Forward-Looking Growth Indicators 3 Figure 1.3. Financial Market Conditions 4 Figure 1.4. Monetary Conditions and Bank Lending 5 Figure 1.5. Financial Conditions Index 5 Figure 1.6. Monetary Policies and Credit in Emerging Market Economies 6 Figure 1.7. Fiscal Policies 7 Figure 1.8. GDP Growth 8 Figure 1.9. Overheating Indicators for the G20 Economies 10 Figure 1.10. Global Ination 11 Figure 1.11. Global Imbalances 11 Figure 1.12. Risks to the Global Outlook 13 Figure 1.13. Recession and Deation Risks 14 Figure 1.14. Interest Rate Risk Scenarios 15 Figure 1.15. Euro Area Scenarios 16 Figure 1.16. Capacity and Credit in Emerging Market Economies 18 Figure 1.17. Emerging Market Downside Scenarios 20 Figure 1.SF.1. IMF Commodity Price Indices 24 Figure 1.SF.2. Equity and Commodity Market Volatility Indices 25 Figure 1.SF.3. Commodity Prices and Economic Activity: First Principal Components 25 Figure 1.SF.4. Energy Prices, Oil Price Prospects 26 Figure 1.SF.5. Crude Oil Prices and SVAR Model 27 Figure 1.SF.6. Oil Market Developments 28 Figure 1.SF.7. Oil Market Buers 29 Figure 1.SF.8. IMF Food Price Indices 29 Figure 1.SF.9. Food Prices and Inventories 30 Figure 1.SF.10. Metals: Prices, Demand, and Prospects 31 International Monetary Fund | April 2013 vii CONTENTS Figure 1.SF.11. Predictive Content of Commodity Futures Prices 31 Figure 1.1.1. Divergent Recoveries 32 Figure 1.1.2. Government Expenditures during Global Recessions and Recoveries 33 Figure 1.1.3. Short-Term Interest Rates during Global Recessions and Recoveries 34 Figure 1.1.4. Central Bank Assets in Major Advanced Economies during Global Recessions and Recoveries 34 Figure 1.1.5. Public-Debt-to-GDP Ratios during Global Recessions and Recoveries 35 Figure 1.1.6. Ination during Global Recessions and Recoveries 35 Figure 1.2.1. Cumulative Abnormal Returns of Irish Listed Firms during the 2009 Bank Bailout 37 Figure 1.2.2. Cumulative Abnormal Returns of Greek Listed Firms during the 2012 Debt Restructuring 37 Figure 1.3.1. Precrisis Developments in Europe 39 Figure 1.3.2. Dierent Paths to Large Current Account Decits 40 Figure 1.3.3. Postcrisis Developments in Europe 41 Figure 2.1. World: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts 45 Figure 2.2. Europe: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts 46 Figure 2.3. Advanced Europe: Diminished Crisis Risks amid Prolonged Stagnation 47 Figure 2.4. Emerging Europe: A Gradual Recovery from 2012 Slowdown 50 Figure 2.5. United States and Canada: Slow but Steady Recovery 51 Figure 2.6. United States: Fiscal Developments 53 Figure 2.7. Asia: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts 54 Figure 2.8. Asia: Stabilization, Recovery, and Accommodative Policies 55 Figure 2.9. Latin America and the Caribbean: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts 58 Figure 2.10. Latin America: Growth Supported by Easy Financing Conditions 59 Figure 2.11. Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts 61 Figure 2.12. Middle East and North Africa: Narrowing Dierences in a Two-Speed Region 63 Figure 2.13. Commonwealth of Independent States: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts 64 Figure 2.14. Commonwealth of Independent States: An Improving Outlook with Vulnerability to Global Slowdown 65 Figure 2.15. Sub-Saharan Africa: 2013 GDP Growth Forecasts 67 Figure 2.16. Sub-Saharan Africa: Continued Resilience 68 Figure 2.SF.1. Policy Uncertainty in the United States and Europe 71 Figure 2.SF.2. General Uncertainty and Condence in the United States and Europe 72 Figure 2.SF.3. Eect of a U.S. or European Policy-Uncertainty Shock on Real GDP in Other Regions 73 Figure 2.SF.4. Growth Impact of U.S. and European Policy-Uncertainty Shocks 74 Figure 2.SF.5. Eect of a U.S. or European Policy-Uncertainty Shock on Real Investment in other Regions 75 Figure 2. SF.6. Peak Eect of a U.S. or European Policy-Uncertainty Shock on Real GDP, Consumption, and Investment in Other Regions 76 Figure 3.1. e Behavior of Ination Has Changed 79 Figure 3.2. Measures of Current Economic Slack 81 Figure 3.3. Current Headline Ination Compared with Expectations 82 Figure 3.4. Rolling Regressions of Ination Expectations over Actual Ination 83 Figure 3.5. Ination and Cyclical Unemployment 84 Figure 3.6. Changes in the Ination Process 85 Figure 3.7. Robustness to Alternative Estimates of the NAIRU 86 Figure 3.8. Actual and Predicted Ination in the United States 87 Figure 3.9. Unemployment and Ination in Selected Economies 88 Figure 3.10. Headline Ination in the United States and Germany 89 Figure 4.1. Economic Performance of Low-Income Countries and Others 98 Figure 4.2. Frequency of New and Ongoing Takeos in Low-Income Countries 101 Figure 4.3. e Global Environment behind Low-Income Countries’ Growth Takeos 101 Figure 4.4. Real Output per Capita after Takeo in Low-Income Countries 102 International Monetary Fund | April 2013 vii world economic outlook: Hopes, realities, risks Figure 4.5. Economic Structure and Real Output per Capita after Takeo in Low-Income Countries 103 Figure 4.6. Investment and Financing in Low-Income Countries 104 Figure 4.7. Macroeconomic Conditions in Low-Income Countries 105 Figure 4.8. External Competitiveness, Export Growth, and Diversication in Low-Income Countries 106 Figure 4.9. Structural Reforms, Infrastructure, and Political Conditions in Low-Income Countries 108 Figure 4.10. Investment and Financing across the Spectrum of Today’s Dynamic Low-Income Countries 109 Figure 4.11. Contributors to the Changing Likelihood of a Growth Takeo in Low-Income Countries 111 Figure 4.12. Brazil’s and Korea’s Growth Experience during 1960–90 113 Figure 4.13. Indonesia’s Growth Experience since the 1960s 114 Figure 4.14. Mozambique’s Growth Experience since the 1990s 116 Figure 4.15. Cambodia’s Growth Experience since the 1990s 117 Figure 4.16. Macroeconomic Conditions for Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries 124 Figure 4.17. Aid and FDI Flows to Non-HIPC-Eligible Low-Income Countries 124 viii International Monetary Fund | April 2013 International Monetary Fund | April 2013 ix A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook. It has been assumed that real eective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during February 11–March 11, 2013, except for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities will be maintained (for specic assumptions about scal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1); that the average price of oil will be $102.60 a barrel in 2013 and $97.58 a barrel in 2014 and will remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank oered rate (LIBOR) on U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.5 percent in 2013 and 0.6 percent in 2014; that the three-month euro deposit rate will average 0.2 percent in 2013 and 0.4 percent in 2014; and that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield on average 0.2 percent in 2013 and 2014. ese are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertainties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. e estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through early April 2013. e following conventions are used throughout the World Economic Outlook: . . . to indicate that data are not available or not applicable; – between years or months (for example, 2012–13 or January–June) to indicate the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; / between years or months (for example, 2012/13) to indicate a scal or nancial year. “Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion. “Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1 percentage point). For some countries, the gures for 2012 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Data refer to calendar years, except for a few countries that use scal years. Please refer to the country informa- tion section of the WEO online database on the IMF website (www.imf.org) for a complete listing of the reference periods for each country. Projections for Cyprus are excluded due to the ongoing crisis. Mongolia is classied as Developing Asia (previously classied as a member of the Commonwealth of Indepen- dent States). Afghanistan and Pakistan, previously classied as Developing Asia, have been added to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to create the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region. e MENA aggregate (excluding Afghanistan and Pakistan) will be maintained. Data for the Marshall Islands and Micronesia are now included in the Developing Asia region. As in the October 2012 World Economic Outlook, data for Syria are excluded for 2011 and later due to the uncertain political situation. Starting with the April 2013 World Economic Outlook, the Newly Industrialized Asian Economies (NIEs) group- ing has been eliminated. If no source is listed on tables and gures, data are drawn from the World Economic Outlook (WEO) database. When countries are not listed alphabetically, they are ordered on the basis of economic size. Minor discrepancies between sums of constituent gures and totals shown reect rounding. As used in this report, the terms “country” and “economy” do not in all cases refer to a territorial entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis. Composite data are provided for various groups of countries organized according to economic characteristics or region. Unless otherwise noted, country group composites represent calculations based on 90 percent or more of the weighted group data. e boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on the maps do not imply, on the part of the International Monetary Fund, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: TENSIONS FROM THE TWOSPEED RECOVERY x International Monetary Fund | April 2013 is version of the World Economic Outlook is available in full through the IMF eLibrary (www.elibrary.imf. org) and the IMF website (www.imf.org). Accompanying the publication on the IMF website is a larger compila- tion of data from the WEO database than is included in the report itself, including les containing the series most frequently requested by readers. ese les may be downloaded for use in a variety of software packages. e data appearing in the World Economic Outlook are compiled by the IMF sta at the time of the WEO exer- cises. e historical data and projections are based on the information gathered by the IMF country desk ocers in the context of their missions to IMF member countries and through their ongoing analysis of the evolving situ- ation in each country. Historical data are updated on a continual basis as more information becomes available, and structural breaks in data are often adjusted to produce smooth series with the use of splicing and other techniques. IMF sta estimates continue to serve as proxies for historical series when complete information is unavailable. 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Inquiries about the content of the World Economic Outlook and the WEO database should be sent by mail, fax, or online forum (telephone inquiries cannot be accepted): World Economic Studies Division Research Department International Monetary Fund 700 19th Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20431, U.S.A. Fax: (202) 623-6343 Online Forum: www.imf.org/weoforum FURTHER INFORMATION AND DATA . based on the information gathered by the IMF country desk ocers in the context of their missions to IMF member countries and through their ongoing analysis